Tampa Bay is Not Going Away: Part 3

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Tampa Bay is Not Going Away: Part 3

    That was different ownership, clown. Why not try to check your facts before spouting foolishness.
     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from craze4sox. Show craze4sox's posts

    Re: Tampa Bay is Not Going Away: Part 3

    The Rays have stayed close because of guys like Crawford, Bartlett, Garza, Pena etc. and are only an image of their former team.  They are still better than the Orioles and Jays pitching wise that may keep them in third place this season.  I guess this threads title depends on what you consider by "them not going away" but I don't see them making the PS.

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Tampa Bay is Not Going Away: Part 3

    Mypoint all along was clearly identified and specific. I said the Rays would be highly competitive this year and into the future. The losses by free agency would be filled to the point where the loss would be minimized.  I said the Rays would win between 90-92 (pretty specific) and that I thought the WC this year would be hotly contested. I still think the WC team will mak it with about 92-93 wins. To me, and the semantics of "not going away" is debateable, TB will be in th race until the end of the season, as in at least until  handful of games are left. I never said they were a shoe-in for the WC.

    TB will not go away this year or for several more to come. I am not backing down one bit from the original Part I thread or the beginning of this thread. Part I was in reply to the clown who said TB would "go away" lst year, because they could not make a trade at the deadline. Now, th clown is back and changing his projections upward as the season goes on.

    TB got "rid of" their top players just in time. This has become a pattern with them. They have ample kids waiting in the wings to take over. Matt joyce is havin a better year than CC ever had or is having now. Kotchman is blowing Pena's numbers away. Hellickson is doing as expected and replacing Garza very well. Yes, they hae weaknesses. Yes, they may not make the playoffs this year, but they are "not going away". They are a pesky bunch of players with a great manager and fantastic young starters who have experience.
     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from betterredthandead. Show betterredthandead's posts

    Re: Tampa Bay is Not Going Away: Part 3

    The only clown is you. The scouting staff didn't change when Wayne "Hyena" and prior ownership had the team. Think Detroit auto factory and bailout.
     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from craze4sox. Show craze4sox's posts

    Re: Tampa Bay is Not Going Away: Part 3

    In Response to Re: Tampa Bay is Not Going Away: Part 3:
    [QUOTE]Mypoint all along was clearly identified and specific. I said the Rays would be highly competitive this year and into the future. The losses by free agency would be filled to the point where the loss would be minimized.  I said the Rays would win between 90-92 (pretty specific) and that I thought the WC this year would be hotly contested. I still think the WC team will mak it with about 92-93 wins. To me, and the semantics of "not going away" is debateable, TB will be in th race until the end of the season, as in at least until  handful of games are left. I never said they were a shoe-in for the WC. TB will not go away this year or for several more to come. I am not backing down one bit from the original Part I thread or the beginning of this thread. Part I was in reply to the clown who said TB would "go away" lst year, because they could not make a trade at the deadline. Now, th clown is back and changing his projections upward as the season goes on. TB got "rid of" their top players just in time. This has become a pattern with them. They have ample kids waiting in the wings to take over. Matt joyce is havin a better year than CC ever had or is having now. Kotchman is blowing Pena's numbers away. Hellickson is doing as expected and replacing Garza very well. Yes, they hae weaknesses. Yes, they may not make the playoffs this year, but they are "not going away". They are a pesky bunch of players with a great manager and fantastic young starters who have experience.
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]

    How many games back do you consider staying close moonslav?  I'm guessing they will be 8 games back well before the season ends.  Even if they are 6 to 8 games back and can't get closer I would consider them out of the race.

    Just a friendly bet
     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from NUSoxFan. Show NUSoxFan's posts

    Re: Tampa Bay is Not Going Away: Part 3

    "Kotchman is blowing Pena's numbers away"

    Kotchman is way overperforming and even then he isn't slugging like Pena did. This isn't something you can credit Tampa for, this is luck.
     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from craze4sox. Show craze4sox's posts

    Re: Tampa Bay is Not Going Away: Part 3

    In Response to Re: Tampa Bay is Not Going Away: Part 3:
    [QUOTE]"Kotchman is blowing Pena's numbers away" Kotchman is way overperforming and even then he isn't slugging like Pena did. This isn't something you can credit Tampa for, this is luck.
    Posted by NUSoxFan[/QUOTE]

    NU, Tampa usually does have an overachieving player or two.  I would be surprised to see Joyce or Kotch maintain their current pace.  They have some good pitching and a strong manager but not much of a lineup.  Damon was a good move to bring some veteran leadership in. 
     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Tampa Bay is Not Going Away: Part 3

    The only clown is you. The scouting staff didn't change when Wayne "Hyena" and prior ownership had the team. Think Detroit auto factory and bailout.

    So, the scouting staff now runs the show and sets the model?

    Wayne Huizenga sold the team to John Henry after losing 100 games the year after the ring of 1997. Henry drafted Beckett. The team was then sold to Loria in 2002. The Marlins won in 2003, but have had 3 different managers since then. The scouting director they have now, I think was signed in 2002, not exactly the architect of the ring teams. His first pick was your buddy, Hermida. (LOL).

    The point is, th Marlins are not run by or like the Marlins of the 2 rings.
     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from betterredthandead. Show betterredthandead's posts

    Re: Tampa Bay is Not Going Away: Part 3

    The point is the Marlins, despite recent years, have the best scouting in baseball. The Rays are an inferior organization, without any doubt.
     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from nhsteven. Show nhsteven's posts

    Re: Tampa Bay is Not Going Away: Part 3

    In Response to Re: Tampa Bay is Not Going Away: Part 3:
    [QUOTE]The only clown is you. The scouting staff didn't change when Wayne "Hyena" and prior ownership had the team. Think Detroit auto factory and bailout. So, the scouting staff now runs the show and sets the model? Wayne Huizenga sold the team to John Henry after losing 100 games the year after the ring of 1997. Henry drafted Beckett. The team was then sold to Loria in 2002. The Marlins won in 2003, but have had 3 different managers since then. The scouting director they have now, I think was signed in 2002, not exactly the architect of the ring teams. His first pick was your buddy, Hermida. (LOL). The point is, th Marlins are not run by or like the Marlins of the 2 rings.
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]

    I saw a scathing article recently about the Marlins FO; they sound almost as bad as the Dodgers.

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Tampa Bay is Not Going Away: Part 3

    How many games back do you consider staying close moonslav?  I'm guessing they will be 8 games back well before the season ends.  Even if they are 6 to 8 games back and can't get closer I would consider them out of the race.

    Just a friendly bet

    It's hard to predict what the other WC contending teams wll do this year. I have a notion that they will beat each other up, and that the AL East is much stronger and deeper than other divisions, making it hard for 2 teams to win more than 92-93 games. If I knew the Yanks would make no moves this July, I'd project TB winning the WC by 1 game. I don't think that is realistic, but I do think TB might make a move or two as well. They have Manny's money.

    That being said, if I had to bet, I'd say the wild card ends like this:

    NYY  94-68
    TB     92-70
    Det   91-71

    To me, finishing 2 games back means they have a good chance to squeek into the Playoffs and were competitive to the end, and are not "going away". 2 games back could mean they were in it to the lst day of the season. I certainly think they will be mathematically in it until the last 3-4 days even if NY gets a stud pitcher this July.

    Others might disagree with the semantics, but I have been very clear about the projected win total and what I mean by "not going away". I am not backing down from what I have been saying. TB is built to last for several more years. They have a great starting staff that has a rare combintion of youth and experience together. Their pen is doing very well. Longoria is back. Their defense and baserunning is as good as ever. Their manager is the best for that team.
     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: Tampa Bay is Not Going Away: Part 3

    I believe you're right, moon.  The Rays will stick around all year.  Just look at the way they play against us.  We're 2-3 against them and the 2 wins were hard-earned.  We rarely have an easy win against them. 
     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from craze4sox. Show craze4sox's posts

    Re: Tampa Bay is Not Going Away: Part 3

    In Response to Re: Tampa Bay is Not Going Away: Part 3:
    [QUOTE]How many games back do you consider staying close moonslav?   I'm guessing they will be 8 games back well before the season ends.  Even if they are 6 to 8 games back and can't get closer I would consider them out of the race. Just a friendly bet It's hard to predict what the other WC contending teams wll do this year. I have a notion that they will beat each other up, and that the AL East is much stronger and deeper than other divisions, making it hard for 2 teams to win more than 92-93 games. If I knew the Yanks would make no moves this July, I'd project TB winning the WC by 1 game. I don't think that is realistic, but I do think TB might make a move or two as well. They have Manny's money. That being said, if I had to bet, I'd say the wild card ends like this: NYY  94-68 TB     92-70 Det   91-71 To me, finishing 2 games back means they have a good chance to squeek into the Playoffs and were competitive to the end, and are not "going away". 2 games back could mean they were in it to the lst day of the season. I certainly think they will be mathematically in it until the last 3-4 days even if NY gets a stud pitcher this July. Others might disagree with the semantics, but I have been very clear about the projected win total and what I mean by "not going away". I am not backing down from what I have been saying. TB is built to last for several more years. They have a great starting staff that has a rare combintion of youth and experience together. Their pen is doing very well. Longoria is back. Their defense and baserunning is as good as ever. Their manager is the best for that team.
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]

    Fair enough, I think it will take guys like Longoria and Damon to keep them in the race.  Johnny has always been great in the clubhouse and clutch player.  If Manny's previous skill level had been part of the equation I would have picked them to beat out the Yankees for the WC.
     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Tampa Bay is Not Going Away: Part 3

    The only clown is you. The scouting staff didn't change when Wayne "Hyena" and prior ownership had the team.

    They did too. They switched to Stan Meek kin 2002. The two rings can not be attributed to him in any way. Jim Fleming joined in 2001, nobody he drafted was on the 2003 ring team. Dan Jennings joined the Marlins after the 2002 draft (from TB). That's the top 3 guys in charge of scouting and development all brought in after Wayne and not in time to have any impact on the 2003 WS win.

    The Rays have a much better farm system and model for generating top prospects year after year. They just had a record numbr of top draft picks in a year most experts considered the deepest draft in years.

    2011 farm systems ratings:
    Deep Leagues: TB 2/ Fla 30.
    Frankie Piliere: TB 3/Fla 29.
    MLB has TB 2  /Fla 30
    ESPN has TB's farm system rated #2.

    Softy, you really have no clue.

    The farm system and organizational model goes beyond scouting. Compare what TB got for Garza with what the Marlins got for Cabrera or Uggla.
    Compare who they choose to manage their team.

    This Marlin management team is not even close to what was prior to 2003. To say their model is better than TB's is pure idiocy.
     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from billsrul. Show billsrul's posts

    Re: Tampa Bay is Not Going Away: Part 3

    In Response to Re: Tampa Bay is Not Going Away: Part 3:
    [QUOTE]The only clown is you. The scouting staff didn't change when Wayne "Hyena" and prior ownership had the team. They did too. They switched to Stan Meek kin 2002. The two rings can not be attributed to him in any way. Jim Fleming joined in 2001, nobody he drafted was on the 2003 ring team. Dan Jennings joined the Marlins after the 2002 draft (from TB). That's the top 3 guys in charge of scouting and development all brought in after Wayne and not in time to have any impact on the 2003 WS win. The Rays have a much better farm system and model for generating top prospects year after year. They just had a record numbr of top draft picks in a year most experts considered the deepest draft in years. 2011 farm systems ratings: Deep Leagues: TB 2/ Fla 30. Frankie Piliere: TB 3/Fla 29. MLB has TB 2  /Fla 30 ESPN has TB's farm system rated #2. Softy, you really have no clue. The farm system and organizational model goes beyond scouting. Compare what TB got for Garza with what the Marlins got for Cabrera or Uggla. Compare who they choose to manage their team. This Marlin management team is not even close to what was prior to 2003. To say their model is better than TB's is pure idiocy.
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]

    If you're looking at teams with small-market success, the Rays (right now) are the gold standard, but it's mostly based off of the perceived strength of their farm system.  For now, they've only really succeded with one major "core".  Now they've gotten rid of quite a few major pieces this year, so this (and the next couple years) are really defining years for the organization.  Do I think they will be relatively succesful (defined as 85-90 wins/year over the next 3ish years, with one or two of those years being better and resulting in a playoff berth).  Sure?  But can we say definitively?  Absolutely not...
     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Tampa Bay is Not Going Away: Part 3

    Nothing in baseball is "absolute".

    The Rays have had some consistent trends over the past few years:
    1) Their stars that leave the team tend to decline greatly immedatley.
    2) Their pen always looks weak on paper in April, but tends to "over-achieve".
    3) Their offense looks pitiful on paper by traditional standards, but still ends up scoring morerunsthatn anticipated. (*see below)
    4) They have been building their farm via draft and trades (see the Kazmir & Garza deals). It is full of good to great prospects at evey level.
    5) Their starting pitchers are young and very good.
    6) They have had some busts (Burrell), but most of their FA signings and trades have worked out very very well in hindsight.

    * In 2010, the Rays scored 802 runs (3rd in MLB), but were 10th in OBP and 14th in Slg%.  Look at these numbers by batting order slot:
    1) .247 BA
    2) .333 OBP
    3) .832 OPS
    4) .802 OPS
    5) .221/.322/.395/.717
    6) .221/.320/.372/.691
    7) .224/.316/.382/.698
    8) .249/.326/.389/.741
    9) .237/.305/.362/.666

    This year, they are 18th in runs scored, yet 23rd in OBP and 15th in Slg%.
    Missing Longoria has hurt. Joyce is coming back to earth, but Kotchman has not dipped at all. 
     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Tampa Bay is Not Going Away: Part 3

    Jamie Shields today: 9 IP  4 Hits  0 ERs  0 BBs 10 Ks

    He's now 7-4 with a 2.40 ERA.

    Hellickson 7-5  3.09
    Price         7-6  3.61
    Davis        6-5  4.57
    Cobb         2-0  3.41


    Top OPS:

    Joyce    .915
    Kotch   .868
    Zobr     .822
    Damon .752
    Long    .740

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Tampa Bay is Not Going Away: Part 3

    TB would be in 1st place in the AL West and NL West. They'd be 1 GB Cleveland and 1/2 GB Milwaukee for the Central divisions lead.
     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Tampa Bay is Not Going Away: Part 3

    TB has won 4 in a row and would be in first place in every division except the AL and NL East. They are on pace to win about 89 games, but with Longoria back and Shield pitching lights out, I think my 90-92 projection may be a little low.

    So far, the still have yet to....

    .... "go away".
     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Tampa Bay is Not Going Away: Part 3

    Almost at the half way pint (can you believe it!) and TB is now tied for the 3rd best record in the AL and tied for the 5th best record in MLB behind Philly, Boston, the Yankees, and Atlanta.

    I guess some may call this "going away", but not me.

    Their starting staff as of now:
    Shields  7-4  2.40
    Price      8-6  3.64
    Hellic.    7-6  3.09
    Davis     6-5  4.57
    Cobb      2-1  3.41
    Niem.    2-4   4.82

    Shields is only 29, Nieman 28, the rest are 26 or younger.

    Combined, the starters have a 3.70 ERA and a 1.202 WHIP.
     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from nhsteven. Show nhsteven's posts

    Re: Tampa Bay is Not Going Away: Part 3

    In Response to Re: Tampa Bay is Not Going Away: Part 3:
    [QUOTE]Almost at the half way pint (can you believe it!) and TB is now tied for the 3rd best record in the AL and tied for the 5th best record in MLB behind Philly, Boston, the Yankees, and Atlanta. I guess some may call this "going away", but not me. Their starting staff as of now: Shields  7-4  2.40 Price      8-6  3.64 Hellic.    7-6  3.09 Davis     6-5  4.57 Cobb      2-1  3.41 Niem.    2-4   4.82 Shields is only 29, Nieman 28, the rest are 26 or younger. Combined, the starters have a 3.70 ERA and a 1.202 WHIP.
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]

    Sounds good; good enough to be the 4th or 5th best team in baseball in 2011, and possibly better in subsequent years. The others ahead of them: Bos, Pha, NYA, & Minn (maybe).
     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Tampa Bay is Not Going Away: Part 3

    ATL is the "other team" ahead of them now.

    An AL starter comparison:

    Tex  3.65 / 1.247
    TB    3.70 / 1.202
    NYY 3.83 / 1.278
    Det   4.01 / 1.284
    Bos  4.02 / 1.268

    When you figure how many games TB plays against the top 2 offenses in MLB, their starter numbers are really better than they look.
     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Tampa Bay is Not Going Away: Part 3

    Shields is unreal.

    TB is "still here".
     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Tampa Bay is Not Going Away: Part 3

    On pace for 89.5 wins.
    Longoria is back.
    Shields is a bull.
     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from craze4sox. Show craze4sox's posts

    Re: Tampa Bay is Not Going Away: Part 3

    In Response to Re: Tampa Bay is Not Going Away: Part 3:
    [QUOTE]On pace for 89.5 wins. Longoria is back. Shields is a bull.
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]

    If we can't beat teams like the Pads or Pirates the Rays deserve to stay close.  The Rays are winning games but .............

    They are 15 and 12 in the AL east, 11 of those wins against the Jays and Orioles.  They are only 12 and 13 against teams with a winning record if you count the 500 Mariners. 

    They have played a relatively easy schedule to this point.
     

Share