Tampa Bay Is Not Going Away: Part V

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from harness. Show harness's posts

    Re: Tampa Bay Is Not Going Away: Part V

    In Response to Re: Tampa Bay Is Not Going Away: Part V:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Tampa Bay Is Not Going Away: Part V : OK; I never said all my opinions were perfect; but I remember when Koufax mowed down the Yankees in '63; the only runs he gave up in game 4; was a Mantle HR. And look

    who you resorted to; arguably 2 of the

    greatest Ps ever
    .
    Posted by nhsteven[/QUOTE]

    I know:}  You did say 'awsome pitching'.
    That's who came to mind.
     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from harness. Show harness's posts

    Re: Tampa Bay Is Not Going Away: Part V

    In Response to Re: Tampa Bay Is Not Going Away: Part V:
    [QUOTE]You guys have completely misinterpreted what I said.  I'm saying that over an entire season, especially in the AL, good hitting is more valuable than good pitching.  Great pitching will always shut down good or even great hitting, but nobody gets great pitching night after night after night over 162 games.  So, please spare the stories about Sandy Koufax, who I actually saw pitch in Philly in the 50's, or Pedro Martinez, or Roger Clemens, or any numbers of great pitchers now and in the past.  Heck, I freely admit that Niemann has had a great night tonight.  But that is not the point. 
    Posted by maxbialystock[/QUOTE]

    No we haven't Max. If great pitching will shut down good/great hitting, then good/mediocre pitching will beat good/mediocre hitting.

    And while "nobody pitches great night after night after night"
    the same can be said for hitters, as they get hot/cold also.
    Venue influences both hitting and pitching. Ask Beltre. Ask AGONE.
     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from maxbialystock. Show maxbialystock's posts

    Re: Tampa Bay Is Not Going Away: Part V

    Actually, no, Harness.

    Let's try this very simple equation one more time.  The three best hitting and run scoring teams in the AL are Boston, NY, and Texas, and all three are headed toward the playoffs.  Boston has the 9th best ERA in the AL and the most wins in the AL.  NY has a better ERA but fewer wins because the Sox are better hitters.  Ditto Texas. 


     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from harness. Show harness's posts

    Re: Tampa Bay Is Not Going Away: Part V

    And I'll answer it one more time, Max.
    Take the line-ups of Boston/NY/Texas and put them in Oakland or Safeco - and watch what happens to their BA"s.

    Then take their respective pitching staffs into the same venues and watch their ERA's suddenly plummet.

    You think it's by coincidence that the M's/A's top the league in ERA, but flounder when it comes to hitting? Venue/skill-set determine production level.
     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from maxbialystock. Show maxbialystock's posts

    Re: Tampa Bay Is Not Going Away: Part V

    I'm not buying the venue stuff for the simple reason that the Yankees have a good ERA, 4th best in the AL, and the friendliest hitting ballpark in MLB.  Plus the Sox have a good W-L on the road where presumably they can't hit--including those 9 straight road games against the NL. 

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from harness. Show harness's posts

    Re: Tampa Bay Is Not Going Away: Part V

    Max: you are limiting UR own scope. Go back however many years you choose; teams in pitching venues are likely to be near last in hitting while near the top in pitching. What is there not to buy?

    NY has had some good pitching this year...so far. That's why they are where they are. Boston has been a mediocre road team at best for years. They started out 0-6 on the road this year, but with CRAWBURY, they are now more geared to win away from Fenway. Keep in mind, Fenway isn't the only hitter friendly baseball venue.

    Do they hit in Safeco the way they do in Fenway?
    And I'm not going by 3-game samplers. I'm going by 10 year increments.
    They historically hit better once it warms up, as the ball carries well, especially in parks like Fenway. They they drop-off when the elements change in Sept.
    And just as the weather affects production, venue does also.
    Get real. Balls hit 316 feet to Lf are outs in most parks.

    I do find it interesting that you tend to draw on recent phenomenon, yet you haven't mentioned tonight's game...
     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from harness. Show harness's posts

    Re: Tampa Bay Is Not Going Away: Part V

    EXAMPLE -  REDSOX hitting in:

    YEAR   FENWAY   SEATTLE    OAKLAND

    2011       .302           -----             .231
    2010       .275           .236            .244
    2009       .284           .224            .241
    2008       .292           .236            .217
    2007       .297           .192            .291
    2006       .285           .201            .257
    2005       .282           .282            .229
    2004       .304           .234            .291
    2003       .316           .222            .206

    Obviously, they play many more games at Fenway. To draw a more accurate analogy, just add up the numbers. Use any decade. It's a 40 - 50 point disparity.
    That's the difference between a .295 hitter and a .250 hitter.

    Now tell me again how you don't buy into venue...
     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Tampa Bay Is Not Going Away: Part V

    I'll make it simple: when I look at a game and who I think Is going to win, I look at who is pitching (so do the bookies).

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from kannaman. Show kannaman's posts

    Re: Tampa Bay Is Not Going Away: Part V

    One thing I will say about Tampa...they have done a good job replacing all the piece's they lost last year but on the other hand some of those they lost played exceptionally well against the Sox...Garza and Pena in particular always seemed to do damage to us.
     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Tampa Bay Is Not Going Away: Part V

    Yes, and so did Crawford.

    Another way to look at it is how are the players they let walk doing this year? Needless to say, it appears they generally let these guys walk "just in time".

    Their pen always seems to be a surprise, year after year.
     
  11. This post has been removed.

     
  12. This post has been removed.

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Tampa Bay Is Not Going Away: Part V

    Like I have said all along: if the Rays "go away" before I projected them to, I will be here admitting my mistake. They have their backs to the wall now and have had some tough close loses recently. I doubt they will be out of it by the deadline, but if they do become sellers, here's a look at their most expensive deals:

    Price & Longoria have extremely team-friendly contracts, so they will not be dealt.
    Damon '11: $5.25M
    Upton   '11: $4.82M plus 1 year arb year.
    Zobrist: '11:$4.5M, 12:$4.5M, 13:$5.5M, 14:$7M club option ($0.5 B/O)
    Shields: '11:$4.25M, 12:$7M club option ($2M buyout), 13:$9M club option ($1.5M buyout),14:$12M club option ($1M buyout)
    Shoppach: '11:$3M, 12:$3.2M club option ($0.3M buyout)
    Farnsworth: '11:$2.6M, 12:$3.3M club option ($0.65M buyout)
    W. Davis: '11:$1M, 12:$1.5M, 13:$2.8M, 14:$4.8M, 15:$7M club option, 16:$8M club option, 17:$10M club option ($2.5M buyout)
     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from maxbialystock. Show maxbialystock's posts

    Re: Tampa Bay Is Not Going Away: Part V

    I think the Rays success before this was good for MLB.  I am not against them this year, but do have my doubts about their ability to win without better hitting.  Plus I don't think Maddon managed that 16 inning monster all that well. 
     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from harness. Show harness's posts

    Re: Tampa Bay Is Not Going Away: Part V

    In Response to Re: Tampa Bay Is Not Going Away: Part V:
    [QUOTE]I think the Rays success before this was good for MLB.  I am not against them this year, but do have my doubts about their ability to win without better hitting.  Plus I don't think Maddon managed that 16 inning monster all that well. 
    Posted by maxbialystock[/QUOTE]

    How about giving the credit where it belongs: To Boston's pitching staff.
    And 'Ole man' Tek.
     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Tampa Bay Is Not Going Away: Part V

    In Response to Re: Tampa Bay Is Not Going Away: Part V:
    [QUOTE]I think the Rays success before this was good for MLB.  I am not against them this year, but do have my doubts about their ability to win without better hitting.  Plus I don't think Maddon managed that 16 inning monster all that well. 
    Posted by maxbialystock[/QUOTE]

    Longoria's injuries and slow recovery have hurt. They finished 3rd last year in runs scored in spite of some horrible numbers in key batting order slots.

    This year they are in the middle of the pack.

     
  17. This post has been removed.

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from tom-uk. Show tom-uk's posts

    Re: Tampa Bay Is Not Going Away: Part V

    Every baseball fan should respect what the management has done in TB.  I respect there use of speed/baserunning acumen and defense to compete.  Over the last few years they have scored more runs then teams with much better OBP #s.

    SF won the WS after finishing 9th in NL for runs.
     
    TB is 8th in AL for runs, with Kotchman due for a major regression. 

    MLBTR:  Meanwhile, Casey Kotchman improved his trade value by collecting three hits and boosting his season line to .337/.396/.467.

    I think they will be sellers this year.
     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from andrewmitch. Show andrewmitch's posts

    Re: Tampa Bay Is Not Going Away: Part V

    Rays shouldn't be any more of concern now than any other team.  And the only team we need to concern ourselves with now is the one we are playing RIGHT NOW.....Also, we only have 1 more trip to the Trop this year......So in short, the Rays are in fact, going away.....
     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from Your-Echo. Show Your-Echo's posts

    Re: Tampa Bay Is Not Going Away: Part V

    Wasn't this forum quite harsh on Kotchman when he played here?

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Tampa Bay Is Not Going Away: Part V

    In Response to Re: Tampa Bay Is Not Going Away: Part V:
    [QUOTE]8 back of Red Sox in the L 7 back of Yankees in the L Middle of July Like I have said all along: if the Rays "go away" before I projected them to, I will be here admitting my mistake. No, Moonslow, you didn't project them to go away at all. Not "before I projected them to". From Mauer to Wastefield to every issue of import, you are a board bully and one big distilled mistake.
    Posted by billbyboy[/QUOTE]

    No, you said they'd "go away" last July. That's when Part I began.

    I have been very clear and specific about this year's projections: 90-92 wins and "not going away" from the playoff race due to muc more competition this year keeping the WC winner's win total down. It looks like the Yanks are on pace for much more than 91 wins and will probably improve at the deadline.

    TB has a tough 10 game road trip coming up that could decide their buyer/seller status. It will be interesting to see how they handle it. They had some recent tough-luck losses, but losses are losses and they needed to win a couple of them to stay closer.

    So, I guess you are saying they have "gane away" now? Is that correct? You are saying they will not be in the WC race with 3-4 days to go?

    Just checking.
     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from maxbialystock. Show maxbialystock's posts

    Re: Tampa Bay Is Not Going Away: Part V

    The Rays are actually better on the road than at home this year, so "tough road trip" is probably a misnomer. 

    They undoubtedly have good pitching.  But my point is that their weak hitting is going to do them in. 

    Right now there are just three teams in the American League with a positive double digit difference between wins and losses:  Sox, Yankees, and Rangers.  It is no coincidence that all three are also leading the AL in runs scored.  The Yankees can still hit without ARod, but the Rays can't--much--even though Longoria is back. 

    And right now the Rays are grouped with Detroit, Cleveland, and LA, which would be fine if there were two wild card slots, but there aren't.  I do think the Rays are going to go away, but completely agree they ain't out of it yet.

    I have regularly stated that the Rays success is good for MLB, but now think that should be qualified by the observation that they are also proving that Florida is not MLB country.  Despite several playoff appearances and one in the WS, their attendance remains low.  Sox at the Orioles, who are mired in last place, attendance was higher than Yankees at Rays. 


     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Tampa Bay Is Not Going Away: Part V

    A lot of TB's offense will depend on Longoria's return to form. They missed him earlier this year, and he has been slow to regain.

    TB would be in first place in 2 of 6 MLB divisions. Playing in a weaker division, they'd be much better in wins.

    This team is very good. They are better than many think or guessed they are.

    "Going away" has a lot to do with the best wild card team's record. Right now, TB is on pace for about 87 wins. How they look at July 31st may determine a lot on where they end up. Obviously, if they become sellers, their chances go way down.
     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Tampa Bay Is Not Going Away: Part V

    Right now there are just three teams in the American League with a positive double digit difference between wins and losses:  Sox, Yankees, and Rangers.  It is no coincidence that all three are also leading the AL in runs scored.  The Yankees can still hit without ARod, but the Rays can't--much--even though Longoria is back. 

    1) Longoria is "back", but not hitting well.
    2) TB's offense is much more dependant on Longoria than NY is on ARod.
    3) About runs sscored = success more than runs allowed: are you sure the reason Bos, NYY, and Tex are ahead in their divisions mostly because of great offense?  have a look at the 3 best divisions:

    Offense

    AL East Runs scored
    Bos  519
    NYY 485
    Tor   469
    TB    401
    Balt 394

    Why isn't Tor ahead of TB instead of 3 GB?

    AL West
    Tex  489
    LAA  375
    Oak  345
    Sea  314

    Clearly Texas' offense is so much better than the rest here, that they are running away with the division, right?  WRONG! LAA is only 4GB, but has scored a whopping 114 less runs! Why?
    Look below: they have let up 50 less runs.  So, 114 to 50 translates to just a 4 game lead? Hmmm....


    NL East
    NYM  428
    Phil   407
    Atl    399
    Fla   386
    Wash 375  

    Why aren't the Mets in 1st? They are 12 games behind and looking to become sellers. Could it be the 70-80 more runs they have allowed than Philly and Atlanta? Their pitching is awful: that is why they will miss the playoffs.

    Pitching and Defense:
    AL East
    NYY  367
    TB     370
    Bos  401
    Tor   446
    Balt  497

    This is why TB is 3 games ahead of Tor. The Sox pitching has improved a ton since April. My guess is, by the end of the season, the Sox will be even higher ranked in runs allowed, even with all the injuries to our staff. TB's pitching is very very good, and their hitating should improve as Longoria heats up, but we'll see about where they finish.

    AL West
    Sea  353
    Oak  363
    LAA  365
    Tex  415

    Clearly, the big parks of Oak and Sea skew these numbers. Their pitching is nopt as great as it appears, and their hitting is not as bad as it appears, however, it is not so clear that LAA is ahead of Oak and Sea due to their offense. LAA's pitching is better than Oak and Sea if you factor in the home park influenses.

    Seattle:
    Home: 3.28 ERA (.637 OPS against)/Offense .607
    Away:  3.52 ERA (.678 OPS against)/ Offesne .628
     (Remember Sea plays a lot of road games at Oak)

    Oakland:
    Home: 2.71 ERA (.619 OPS against)/Offense .679 OPS
    Away:  5.59 ERA (.703 OPS against)/ Offense .612 OPS
     (Remember, with Oak it is not just the OF walls, it is the large foulball territory that makes it a pitcher's park, plus Oak plays many road games at Sea.)


    NL East
    Philly  322
    Atl       345
    Wash  388
    NYM    416
    Fla      428

    Phillies pitching is "off the charts good". Their offense is good, but others have done better. Still, Philly is clearly the NL team to beat: why? 

    Because of their staff.


     

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from Bucknerwasnotatfault. Show Bucknerwasnotatfault's posts

    Re: Tampa Bay Is Not Going Away: Part V

    On nights I can't sleep I'm going to come back here and read this post. Should put me out about 1/2 through.
     

Share