Tampa Bay Is Not Going Away: Part V

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from maxbialystock. Show maxbialystock's posts

    Re: Tampa Bay Is Not Going Away: Part V

    moonslav,

    I'm only talking about the AL, which generally has better offenses because of the DH. 

    My point is very simple:  in the AL, the best offenses have the best W-L records without regard to their team pitching/ERA's.  The Yankees, Rangers, and Rays all have better ERA's than the Sox, whose team ERA is 8th of 14th AL teams, but the Sox have the best record because of better hitting. I don't buy the argument that the Sox hitting depends on Fenway because the Sox road record is over .600--they outhit other teams, including the Yankees, in their ballparks, not just Fenway. 

    Yes, pitching is important, which is why most Sox fans worry these days.  When will Buchholz return?  Will Lester be effective after being on the DL?  Can Weiland, Miller, Lackey, and Wakefield be relied upon?  And so on.  Clearly, good hitting plus good pitching, which the Sox had in 2004 and 2007, is the best combo of all.

    But, if you have to choose between good pitching and good hitting, in the AL the smart move is to get the good hitting.  Theo went out and got AGon, and that has helped a ton.  Plus of course Ortiz is having a better than expected year and Ellsbury a spectacular year (as long as he stays away from Beltre).  Plus Youk, Pedroia, et al.  The only time the hitting struggled (after the first two weeks of the season) was the six games at Pittsburgh and Philly when Ortiz was semi-unavailable, Crawford was on the DL, and Drew/McDonald/Cameron were useless.  Theo got Crawford, who hasn't yet delivered, but I would argue that losing Crawford hurt the Rays more than most people think. 

    Please don't tell me that you need pitching in the postseason because I already agree with that.  In 2004 Schilling was crucial and in 2007 it was Beckett.  This year the postseason beast is very likely going to be the Phillies.  But, if Beckett, Lester, and Buchholz are all pitching to their ability, I like our chances. 

    One more time:  in the AL hitting is more important than pitching in getting to the postseason, and that has been going on for several years now. 

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Tampa Bay Is Not Going Away: Part V

    We may have to agree to disagree, but I'll add one last point.

    Hitting is very important to making the playoffs, especially in the AL. It is very hard to make it with a poor offense. That is certainly true.

    My point is that good pitching is more important, and that is easier to make the playoffs, even in the AL, with good pitching/poor hitting than good hitting/poor pitching. Usually the playoff teams do not have "poor" pitching or hitting, but rather average in one and very good/great in the other.

    The best AL teams (still in the playoff hunt) are:

    Team  win%   Off   Def (ranked by runs in AL only)

    Boston .615    1    7
    NYY      .600    3    4
    Texas   .571    2    8
    TB         .531    8    5
    LAA      .531    12   3
    Cleve   .526     6    9
    Detroit .526     5   12
    Toronto .500   4    11
    CWS      .480   10   6
    Minn     .474    11   10

    For purposes of making the playoffs as a wild card team or a weak division winner, it seems pitching is a strong key to staying competitve. Since this is a thread about TB and their chances, I think it is pertinent. The AL Central is pretty eve. Most are better hitting than pitching by rank, but my bet is on the CWS to win the division. They are only 4.5 GB even with the 10th best offense in the AL. The Rays and Angels are clearly sticking around due to their pitching, not their hitting.

    You mentione the top 3 AL offensive teams: what about the 4th best AL team?
    Toronto is at .500 and 11 GB Boston (9.5 behing the WC).
    The Royals have the 7th best offense in the AL: they are in last place in the easiest division in the AL.

    I'm not denying hitting makes a big difference. I still think that without good pitching, the odds are greater you are left out of the playoffs, than vice versa.

    We both agree good pitching wins the playoffs, but to me, this proves good pitching wins over good hitting most of the time, or rather better pitching wins over better hitting most of the time.
     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from devildavid. Show devildavid's posts

    Re: Tampa Bay Is Not Going Away: Part V

    Max, with all due respect, you are oversimplifying. The short version of what Moon is saying can be found by looking at run differential. The Sox, Yanks, and Rangers are 1.2.3 in that department. It is not a perfect indicator, but it is a pretty good one.

    There is no one way to predict success in the AL. Just look at the 2010 season. The Sox finished third but were ahead of Tampa in runs scored. But Tampa led in run differential, .9 to .5. It was Boston's pitching that hurt them. The 2008 season is even more confounding. The Sox scored much more than Tampa and had a better run differential and still Tampa took fist place. How do we explain that one?

    In all sports, you have take both offense and defense into consideration when evaluating the potential for success of a team. You can't just look at one side or the other and say this is the reason because the numbers simply don't bear that out. Even run differential is not a perfect indicator.

    It really doesn't make sense to look for the "one" reason for success because there isn't one. If you honestly examine the offensive numbers in the past few years, your theory just doesn't hold up. I don't have an alternative "magic" stat that gives the answer every time because there isn't one. You have to take into account all the statistics and as many ways to analyze them as you can.
     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Tampa Bay Is Not Going Away: Part V

    Well said David. Run differential is the closest one can come to predicting winning percentage, but you rarely see anomolies of better run scoring teams making it over better defensive/pitching teams with a worse run differential than vice versa, and that shows to me that pitching has a better chance of helping a team "defy the odds" and make it.

    The Rangers have scored 114 more runs than the Angels. They've let up 50 more runs. The Angels are only 4 back even with a run differential net loss of 64 runs!

    According to baeball references "Phythagorean" projection, the Angels have 2 more wins than they should by run differential. To me, that is some evidence that good pitching effects win total projections more than good hitting. Lower scoring games usually means you stay closer and have a better chance at "squeeking a win".
     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from soxmeister. Show soxmeister's posts

    Re: Tampa Bay Is Not Going Away: Part V

    After tonight the Rays will be 9 down in the loss column to the Sox, 8 to the Yankees.  Toronto will be 4 back of the Rays.  

    Get the bugle ready, I hear taps playing in their future ...

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from can-you-dig-it. Show can-you-dig-it's posts

    Re: Tampa Bay Is Not Going Away: Part V

    looks like Tampa Bay is going away, they can't even beat the ancient yankees at home.  Freddie Garcia shut out the Rays, Fartolo colon should have beaten them if the fading yankees defense didn't give it away and they gave Hughes his only win of the year.  sounds like the Rays are definately going away.
     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from maxbialystock. Show maxbialystock's posts

    Re: Tampa Bay Is Not Going Away: Part V

    Guys, I hear you, but I don't think you are hearing me.

    Of course run differential makes a big difference.  It's probably the best predictor of W-L even though it isn't always decisive.

    And of course good pitching and good hitting together are much better than just good pitching or just good hitting. 

    And of course good or great pitching is crucial in the postseason. 

    I am just saying that run production by itself is a surprisingly pretty good predictor of regular season success in the American League. 

    And I say that specifically because since 2007, when the Sox had the best ERA in the AL, the Sox have not had particularly good pitching.  Last year, for example, the Sox ERA was 9th in the AL, but they darn near made the playoffs because of the hitting.  They year before, 2009, they made the playoffs with the 7th best ERA in the AL.  This year the ERA is 8th in AL, but the Sox have the best W-L record in the AL because they have the best hitting. 

    And this year the Rays have a pretty solid pitching staff, but sure look to me as though they are fading fast even though it's only July.  And I claim their problem is weak hitting--at least, weak in comparison to the Sox and Yankees. 
     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from can-you-dig-it. Show can-you-dig-it's posts

    Re: Tampa Bay Is Not Going Away: Part V

    looks like Tampa Bay is going away, they can't even beat the ancient yankees at home.  Freddie Garcia shut out the Rays, Fartolo colon should have beaten them if the fading yankees defense didn't give it away and they gave Hughes his only win of the year.  sounds like the Rays are definately going away.
     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from bald-predictions. Show bald-predictions's posts

    Re: Tampa Bay Is Not Going Away: Part V

    They are already gone.
     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from craze4sox. Show craze4sox's posts

    Re: Tampa Bay Is Not Going Away: Part V

    In Response to Re: Tampa Bay Is Not Going Away: Part V:
    [QUOTE]They are already gone.
    Posted by bald-predictions[/QUOTE]

    I gave Tampa the 20 games after this Yankee series to stay close because they are all against below 500 teams.  Considering the Sox took "two of three" and how the Rays are doing with the Yanks, we may have to pronounce them "dead" much sooner than expected.

    Tampa doesn't have the offense, or much cash to spend so it won't be easy. 
     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Tampa Bay Is Not Going Away: Part V

    Maybe Longoria's HR today is a sign of him coming around. Kotchman, Joyce, and Zobrist have to protect him as (if) he does.

    Shields has been a marvel. His ERAs is down to 2.53!

    Back to 6 in the loss column. This road trip could be big.

     The Yanks play at home vs Oak (3), Sea (3) and Balt (4) during TB's 10 game road trip.
     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from maxbialystock. Show maxbialystock's posts

    Re: Tampa Bay Is Not Going Away: Part V

    In Response to Re: Tampa Bay Is Not Going Away: Part V:
    [QUOTE]Maybe Longoria's HR today is a sign of him coming around. Kotchman, Joyce, and Zobrist have to protect him as (if) he does. Shields has been a marvel. His ERAs is down to 2.53! Back to 6 in the loss column. This road trip could be big.  The Yanks play at home vs Oak (3), Sea (3) and Balt (4) during TB's 10 game road trip.
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]
     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Tampa Bay Is Not Going Away: Part V

    Did I miss your post?
     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from harness. Show harness's posts

    Re: Tampa Bay Is Not Going Away: Part V

    In Response to Re: Tampa Bay Is Not Going Away: Part V:
    [QUOTE]Max, with all due respect, you are oversimplifying. The short version of what Moon is saying can be found by looking at run differential. The Sox, Yanks, and Rangers are 1.2.3 in that department. It is not a perfect indicator, but it is a pretty good one. There is no one way to predict success in the AL. Just look at the 2010 season. The Sox finished third but were ahead of Tampa in runs scored. But Tampa led in run differential, .9 to .5. It was Boston's pitching that hurt them. The 2008 season is even more confounding. The Sox scored much more than Tampa and had a better run differential and still Tampa took fist place. How do we explain that one? In all sports, you have take both offense and defense into consideration when evaluating the potential for success of a team. You can't just look at one side or the other and say this is the reason because the numbers simply don't bear that out. Even run differential is not a perfect indicator. It really doesn't make sense to look for the "one" reason for success because there isn't one. If you honestly examine the offensive numbers in the past few years, your theory just doesn't hold up. I don't have an alternative "magic" stat that gives the answer every time because there isn't one. You have to take into account all the statistics and as many ways to analyze them as you can.
    Posted by devildavid[/QUOTE]

    This post says it all.


    I suggest you re-read this Max. And do keep in mind that even run differential is flawed. As is ERA. Team ERA can be anchored by two ineffective pitchers.
    It's a balance, and numbers convey averages.
     
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  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from nhsteven. Show nhsteven's posts

    Re: Tampa Bay Is Not Going Away: Part V

    In Response to Re: Tampa Bay Is Not Going Away: Part V:
    [QUOTE]The Rays are more likely to trade www.baseball-reference.com/players/u/uptonbj01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker " target="_blank" /> B.J. Upton than www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/shielja02.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker " target="_blank"> James Shields , though they realize Shields’ value has never been higher (the right-hander www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/07/yankees-asked-about-shields-rays-said-no.html " target="_blank"> won't be going to the Bronx ).  - MLBTR Thread update July 22, 2011 Year of our (Censored by NY Times) Rays lose to Royals 9 LC back of Red Sox 7 LC back of Yankees Please pin a clown icon next to the author of this thread.
    Posted by billbyboy[/QUOTE]

    Kind of a lame comeback for mostly everything that's transpired on the other threads. How shall I put this ...................  You lost.
     
  17. This post has been removed.

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Tampa Bay Is Not Going Away: Part V

    In Response to Re: Tampa Bay Is Not Going Away: Part V:
    [QUOTE]The Rays are more likely to trade www.baseball-reference.com/players/u/uptonbj01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker " target="_blank" /> B.J. Upton than www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/shielja02.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker " target="_blank"> James Shields , though they realize Shields’ value has never been higher (the right-hander www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/07/yankees-asked-about-shields-rays-said-no.html " target="_blank"> won't be going to the Bronx ).  - MLBTR Thread update July 22, 2011 Year of our (Censored by NY Times) Rays lose to Royals 9 LC back of Red Sox 7 LC back of Yankees Please pin a clown icon next to the author of this thread.
    Posted by billbyboy[/QUOTE]

    Compared to your enlesss and useless Wake, Tek, Ells , and Lowrie threads, this is nothing..The clown icon belongs to you...
     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from BurritoT. Show BurritoT's posts

    Re: Tampa Bay Is Not Going Away: Part V

    Exactly when do you start a thread that says "Tampa has gone away" ?
     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Tampa Bay Is Not Going Away: Part V

    In Response to Re: Tampa Bay Is Not Going Away: Part V:
    [QUOTE]Nope, I won. You lost. The author of this lame thread has lost and gone away with the Rays.
    Posted by billbyboy[/QUOTE]

    I have been right here. Unlike you, I wont "go away" and reinvent myself and pretend I never made my statements. I will admit I was wrong when the time comes.

     
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  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from jimdavis. Show jimdavis's posts

    Re: Tampa Bay Is Not Going Away: Part V

    In Response to Re: Tampa Bay Is Not Going Away: Part V:
    [QUOTE]Nope, I won. You lost. The author of this lame thread has lost and gone away with the Rays.
    Posted by billbyboy[/QUOTE]

    Hang your hat on being right here, I guess.  There is so much else that you have been wrong about that we could write a book.
     
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  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Tampa Bay Is Not Going Away: Part V

    Have they "gone away" yet?

    I'd say they are digging a hole and giving softy a chance to break his 113 positions losing streak.
     
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