Re: Tampa Bay Rays Will Not Go Away: Part III
posted at 2/11/2012 10:10 PM EST
That's more a result of the difference in budget between the two teams, and I don't know if that works in the Rays favor in a pennant race. I think you saw the Rays fade down the stretch in 2010 because they relied on two many young arms that were used to pitching 130 innings a year, and were suddenly asked to pitch 200. I think that's the same formula the A's used in the 90s and that's why so little of their staff remained healthy and effective past their mid 20s.
For the most part, the 22 - 24 year olds on the Rays roster are not ready by Red Sox standards. Matt Moore's stats look a lot like Buchholz at that age - he looks very promising, but I wouldn't pencil in a winning season for him in 2012.
Michael Bowden was a better pitcher than both Chris Archer and Andres Torres at their respective ages (Bowden is only 15 months older than Torres as it is).
Even Desmond Jennings has been a bit of a disappointment, hot MLB start not withstanding. He had an .830 OPS at AAA at the age of 25. Do you really think he'll become an all-star? Lavarnway, who's a year younger than Jennings, outslugged him by 160 points. Shouldn't the Sox be more excited about Lavarnway right now, regardless of defense and scout rankings?
I'm not saying the Rays don't have potential, but the guys you could look at their stat lines and see them coming - the Prices, Hellicksons, Moores and Longorias, I don't think they have any of those guys left right now.
Great points, slo. My points about TB having younger players on their roster now, was meant to emphasize that as the reason why they might not have many MLB-ready players on the farm right now, but like the Sox, they have had many recent top 2 round picks and that those players might not show up on the charts for another year or so.
I'm not sure I'd say Desmond Jennings has been a dissapointment. He was drafted in the 10th round in June of 2006. By 2006, he was rated #59 by BA. He got up to #6 by 2010. He has an .805 OPS in his first 80 ML games. Comparing him to Lava is tough, but I'm not sure that I wouldn't want Desmond over Lava.
The Rays are super young, but many of those players are now nearing their early or mid prime years.
(Sox in Red)
(Kalish, Middlebrooks, Lin)
(Lavarnway, Lars Anderson)
(R Chirinos, E Johnson)
(Badenhop, De La Rosa)