The 2012-2013 Offseason - A Preview

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    The 2012-2013 Offseason - A Preview

    By next season, the Sox will add the following player: Cliff Lee, Kendrys Morales (1B), and Michael Morse (LF). In order to acquire these players, the Sox will be dealing off Jacoby Ellsbury, some bullpen depth, and some other undetermined players.

     

    I’m not a big fan of getting Cliff Lee, given his age and contract (3 years $87.5mill or 4 years / $102mill). However, he does give the Sox some short term potential for a TOR starter. He is unlikely to be the starter everyone recognizwes him as, but still represents an upgrade for Boston, especially given the limited option in free agency. Philadelphia is really in no position to rebuild, given their large number of expensive and/or unmovable contracts (Halladay, Howard, Rollins, Papelbon, Hamels), but probably needs to shed some salary and work on their roster, since their window for another championship is being held open by Roy Halladay. Given that their best OF is Nate Schierholtz, they would probably be amenable to a swap for Ellsbury, but might prefer to leave room for Josh Hamilton, who has all the traits Ruben Amaro looks for in a free agent. Moving Lee does leave a hole in their pitching staff, but does llow them to get out of one of their monster contracts, and this one looks worse at time goes on because of the insane buyout money ($12.5mill!!!) invovled.  Many fans might was prospects for Ellsbury, but given his free agency and agent status, as well as the bumper crop of CF available in free agency, and add a few others like Chris Young, Peter Bourjos and one of Revere/Span who also figure to be available in trade, it is not a seller's market.

     

    Kendrys Morales is a potential non-tender candidate in LA, per MLBTR, and that’s not a surprising notion given their OF/1B/DH logjam and desire to bring back Torii Hunter. If Morales is available, a solid match might be Aceves, who is cheaper, and more important, not an outfielder or 1B. It does help that the Angels’ bullpen gave up more runs than ExLax and White Castle combined, so Aceves is a step towards addressing that situation.

     

    The Nationals presumably have no problems with Morse, but if they bring back Adam LaRoche (as expected), he does get harder to fit into their lineup. They could continue to play Harper and/or Werth in CF and keep Morse in LF, but a leadoff CF type has to be on their radar (Ellsbury?  Probably not). Early indications are they figure to make a play for Michael Bourn, but could also get involved in negotiations for the extremely underrated Angel Pagan. They also have been linked to Denard Span in the past. Or they might simply want minor leaguers, since they handed most of their farm system to Oakland last year in the Gio Gonzalez trade.

     

    This does leave the Sox in need of a leadoff CF player, not that they will b hard to find this offseason. One suggestion rarely mentioned that I like is Will Venable, who is actually a pretty good hitter when he is not in Petco. The Padres certainly need a 2B and pitching help, and presumably no one who makes good money. Not sure how they feel about Aviles, DeJesus or Sweeney. If they overvalue Venable, the Sox could try a short term FA such as Pagan, Ichiro or Melky, or well, anyone. Ichiro is re-inventing himself during the ALCS, but Melky needs some serious positive PR and is a lot less likely. Scott Hairston might also prove a decent stopgap and has had a fairly underrated career. However, he strikes me as Cody Ross 2.0 in that he is best utilized on the short side of a platoon…

     

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from TheExaminer. Show TheExaminer's posts

    Re: The 2012-2013 Offseason - A Preview

    Interesting notin. What do you see in Ellsbury and Cincinnati? Thats the only team I'd be happy to see him traded to. Anywhere else I'd see as a necessary evil. I wonder what the Sox woud ask for from Cincinnati? The Reds have phenom SS Billy Hamilton, and are having him play CF in winter ball to get him ready for a possible leadoff role and to replace Drew Stubbs because that was a major weak spot for them in 2012, as well as their heavy right-handedness in the lineup. But who knows if he is totally MLB ready, and Ellsbury would be a perfect fit there. Left handed bat, leadoff hitter with power and good defense? Moon is right, they shoud have traded for him at the deadline THIS year. But I dont know that the Reds would want to re-sign him after 2013, so the price might not be what the Sox want--but that may be true of any team the Sox try to deal him to. What scares me is NYY going after him when he reaches FA.

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Re: The 2012-2013 Offseason - A Preview

    In response to TheExaminer's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Interesting notin. What do you see in Ellsbury and Cincinatti? Thats the only team I'd be happy to see him traded to. Anywhere else Id see as a necessary evil. I wonder what the Sox woud ask for from Cincinatti? The Reds have phenom SS Billy Hamilton, and are having him play CF in winter ball to get him ready for a possible leadoff role and to replace Drew Stubbs because that was a major weak spot for them in 2012, as well as their heavy right-handedness in the lineup. But who knows if he is totally MLB ready, and Ellsbury would be a perfect fit there. Left handed bat, leadoff hitter with power and good defense? Moon is right, they shoud have traded for him at the dealine THIS year. But I dont know that the Reds woud want to re-sign him after 2012, so the price might not be what the Sox want--but that may be true of any team the Sox try to deal him to. What scares me in NYY going after him when he reaches FA.

    [/QUOTE]


    Stubbs did appear to lose his luster there, and Dusty Baker never plays rookies, so if Stubbs is out, they need a veteran.  Chris Heisey is a nice player, but nothing to get excited about.

     

    Cincinnati is a tough call if you want a SP.  The ones they have are either too good (Cueto, Latos) to deal for Ellsbury, or not good enough (Leake, Arroyo).  The wildcard is how they feel about this latest resurgence of Homer Bailey.  They've been waiting for him for eyars, and he is finally showing some promise, and is somehow still only 26.  The big problem with this deal is that Bailey has 3 years of control left, and Ellsbury has one.

     

    Now if the Sox added a decent prospect, like Allen Webster (who I have less hope for as he appears to have stamina issues) for Bailey, and the Reds would probably happily dump Stubbs on your lap for free.

     

    As for Hamilton, Jocketty get calls on him daily.  He has resisted all attempts so far, and is likely to do so since Hamilton pretty much carries a big bag of excitement with him wherever he goes.   I could see him going to CF, although its not like Zack Cozart is going to make anyone forget Dave Concepcion.  Still, they might not mind Ellsbury or see him as a perfect stopgap to Hamilton.  But in no way are they dealing Hamilton for Ellsbury.  If they want a CF for one year or so, they can go get Ichiro or swing a trade for Denard Span, who can presumably be had for less...

     

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from TheExaminer. Show TheExaminer's posts

    Re: The 2012-2013 Offseason - A Preview

    Yeah, Hamilton is untouchable right now, wasnt suggesting that trade would be made. My thoughts were also in the area of Bailey. The Sox might look at him, but I'm not sure the Reds want to deal him now that he's starting to finally show up. He matured a lot this year, and it showed. If they traded Bailey and got the 2011 Ellsbury and could sign him long term it would be worth it. But I think a lot of teams will hedge their bets on Ells because of injury/possible regression.

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Re: The 2012-2013 Offseason - A Preview

    Or if they traded Bailey and Stubbs and got Ellsbury and Webster, it might be worthwhile.

     

     

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from TheExaminer. Show TheExaminer's posts

    Re: The 2012-2013 Offseason - A Preview

    Could be, we will find out soon.

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: The 2012-2013 Offseason - A Preview

    How about:

    Ellsbury to SF  for Romo & H Sanchez

    Lavarnway, Aviles, Tazawa, & Ranaudo for Brett Anderson

    Sign: Ludwick, McCarthy, and one of Marcum, A Sanchez or Saunders

     

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from TheExaminer. Show TheExaminer's posts

    Re: The 2012-2013 Offseason - A Preview

    Moon, I think the Reds have a club option on Ludwick, and if so, they will probably exercise it.

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: The 2012-2013 Offseason - A Preview

    I think it's a mutual option. Not sure how that works.

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from TheExaminer. Show TheExaminer's posts

    Re: The 2012-2013 Offseason - A Preview

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I think it's a mutual option. Not sure how that works.

    [/QUOTE]

    I think if one exercises it, the other has a choice of money or some other benefit. Most likely if the Reds exercise the option, Ludwick will have a choice of a little more money. I could be wrong.

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: The 2012-2013 Offseason - A Preview

    In response to TheExaminer's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I think it's a mutual option. Not sure how that works.

    [/QUOTE]

    I think if one exercises it, the other has a choice of money or some other benefit. Most likely if the Reds exercise the option, Ludwick will have a choice of a little more money. I could be wrong.

    [/QUOTE]


    I thought both had to say yes, or he became a FA. Ludwick is not likely to take the $5M "mutual option". I do not know how it works, so you may be right.

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: The 2012-2013 Offseason - A Preview

    Ludwicks contract is a team option with a .5mm buyout, not mutual. The Reds have to want him back or give him a half mil on his way out of town.

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: The 2012-2013 Offseason - A Preview

    In response to southpaw777's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Ludwicks contract is a team option with a .5mm buyout, not mutual. The Reds have to want him back or give him a half mil on his way out of town.

    [/QUOTE]

    The very respected Cots Baseball has this...



    Ryan Ludwick of
    1 year/$2.5M (2012)

    • 1 year/$2.5M (2012)

       

    • signed by Cincinnati as a free agent 1/17/12
    • 12:$2M, 13:$5M mutual option ($0.5M buyout)
    • performance bonuses: $50,000 for 250, 300, 350 plate appearances. $0.1M for 400, 450 PA. $0.15M for 500 PA.
     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: The 2012-2013 Offseason - A Preview

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to southpaw777's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Ludwicks contract is a team option with a .5mm buyout, not mutual. The Reds have to want him back or give him a half mil on his way out of town.

    [/QUOTE]

    The very respected Cots Baseball has this...



    Ryan Ludwick of
    1 year/$2.5M (2012)

    • 1 year/$2.5M (2012)

       

    • signed by Cincinnati as a free agent 1/17/12
    • 12:$2M, 13:$5M mutual option ($0.5M buyout)
    • performance bonuses: $50,000 for 250, 300, 350 plate appearances. $0.1M for 400, 450 PA. $0.15M for 500 PA.

    [/QUOTE]


    my mistake. I read it wrong.

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: The 2012-2013 Offseason - A Preview

    In response to notin's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Or if they traded Bailey and Stubbs and got Ellsbury and Webster, it might be worthwhile.

     

     

    [/QUOTE]


    What about Ellsbury and another player for Cingrani, Corcino, Lotzkar, or Stephenson

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from carnie. Show carnie's posts

    Re: The 2012-2013 Offseason - A Preview

    In response to southpaw777's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to notin's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Or if they traded Bailey and Stubbs and got Ellsbury and Webster, it might be worthwhile.

     

     

    [/QUOTE]


    What about Ellsbury and another player for Cingrani, Corcino, Lotzkar, or Stephenson

    [/QUOTE]


    I've been wanting to do Ellsbury for Cingrani and Corcino for quite a while now.

     

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