I thought I would start with one of our brightest outlook spots.

Assuming our starting rotation remains healthy (a huge assumption), our swingmen (or fill-in starter)  will be Morales and maybe Mortensen or Tazawa or even de la Rosa later in the year.

 

A big decision will have to be made on Tazawa. He may be one of our best pitchers, but since he has options, he may end up in AAA to start the season if everyone is healthy. I am going to assume this is the case.

Assuming Tazawa starts in AAA, that leaves Mortensen out in the cold, unless someone is hurt or we get creative with the DL or rehab assignments. A 2 for 1 trade might be called for to make room for a better player somewhere. That leaves this for our 7 man pen:

Closer: Hanrahan

Set-up: Bailey (back-up closer)

Set-up: Uehara (7th/8th inning)

Others:

Aceves

Breslow

Miller

Morales

(Others: Mortensen, Tazawa, Bard, Carpenter, Wilson, Beato, de la Torre)

 

Bullpens are hard to project, but this one looks pretty good on paper.

 

 

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Tazawa did a great job for the Red Sox last season.  I hope he starts the season in the bullpen and not in AAA.

As for Bard, I am not sure what role he will play.  He was an excellent set-up guy and it was so unfortunate that the starting pitcher experiment did not work out.  I hope he had the chance during the offseason to refresh his mind and remind himself that he is an excellent bullpen pitcher. 

As for Bailey, I think he is a spy sent by Billy Beane.  LOL 

But overall, I like Boston's bullpen. 

 

 

Tazawa was a starter. A pretty good one, before TJ surgery. Seems like it might be a good idea to stretch him out, and send him to AAA as a starter. He could always go back to the pen if needed. It's not the same as Bard who was a reliever for years.

 

On a scale of 1 to 10 where does the current pen rate?

Tazawa was a starter. A pretty good one, before TJ surgery. Seems like it might be a good idea to stretch him out, and send him to AAA as a starter. He could always go back to the pen if needed

I'd prefer we make a 2 for one trade to make room for Tazawa and not have to DFA Mortensen, but if Taz is in AAA, he should start. I agree.

In response to tcal2-'s comment:

I'd say an 8.325

In response to tcal2-'s comment:

i'd give it a 9 right now, if Bard is back to his old self then it's a 10. Even if Taz starts the season in AAA and Bard isn't himself then i'd still rate the current group in the 7.5-8 range.

Great bullpen.  Certainly has much depth.  The main question is how reliable will Hanrahan (or Bailey) be as closers.  

The one greatest hope I have for this team is the carry-over effect the bullpen may have on bolstering other team weaknesses.  While this certainly doesn't look like a dominant starting staff, all they need to do is manage enough quality starts to keep the team in games until the bullpen takes over.  They may be capable of doing that and of picking up some W's in the process.  With confidence in the bullpen, Farrell will have the luxury of applying a quick hook when starters start looking shaky.  

In addition, the lineup looks a bit thin in the middle, and it will not  resemble the offensive juggernaut that we were used to seeing in the "Golden Age", Manny/Papi days.  However, the lineup doesn't seem to have the holes like it did last season, and it is capable of eeking out runs from top to bottom.  While they may not pummel teams and produce gaudy OPS numbers, they might score enough to win close games.  While it may not be much to pin our hopes on, it is at least something.

The bullpen may be the thing that defies some Sabermatricians, who sometimes have a tendency to look at numbers as static and not dynamic.  One part of the game affects another, and in the end, it's only team wins that count. 

 

 

While the RS bullpen looks great on paper, we all know how pens usually play out, never same guys at end of year as in the begining. But having alot of depth is a good thing as long as you don't have to expose them to waivers to try and get to AAA. Tazawa belongs w/ RS if he pitches in ST like he did end of last season. If that happens be sure that Ben will make a trade as Moon has suggested, otherwise someone could be lost for nothing in return. Bard will start year at AAA and will be first one back if pitching well at AAA and someone not at MLB level. Most likely canidates to get traded Bailey / Aceves

Very nice depth there. When you factor in that Tazawa, Aceves, Morales, De La Rosa, and perhaps Mortensen are all potential starters (whether for a spot start or something more long-term), Farrell should have amazing flexibility with the pitching staff when injuries strike, as they inevitably will.

 It will be the BEST in baseball.

In response to moonslav59's comment:

Hanrahan, Bailey, Bard, Uehara, Tazawa, Breslow, Morales, Mortensen, Aceves, Miller...that's 10 candidates for 7 jobs...let's just say they better pull off a couple of deals or some of these guys will be pitching for their competitors come season's start.

I think Bailey and Morales have the most value in the marketplace, so look for those guys to be moved, barring injuries out there. I hope Morales sticks around because I think he holds value as a 6th starter as well...better than Aceves.

In response to moonslav59's comment:

Thanks moon.  Sounds great.  I've been in football mode for the last 5 months.

Great bullpen.  Certainly has much depth.  The main question is how reliable will Hanrahan (or Bailey) be as closers.....

The bullpen may be the thing that defies some Sabermatricians, who sometimes have a tendency to look at numbers as static and not dynamic.  One part of the game affects another, and in the end, it's only team wins that count. 

 

I agree. The closer is the only area of deep concern with our pen.

Stats are not reliable for projecting out a pen's value, but we look darn good on paper right now.

In response to Soxdog67's comment:

I'm not sure Bailey has much value until he proves he is healthy. I think players with more years of team control have more value, and so I think Mortensen is the guy who will could be moved. We may even move Aceves.

I think what happens is we will wait until ST. If nobody goes on the DL, we will invent an unjury and DL assignment or trade someone to a team that has a hole created by a spring injury.

Don't see any way we start the season with 3 lefties out of the pen, unless Morales assumes the inning eater role that Aceves had a couple years ago, and Aceves is moved or released.  Breslow may be odd man out if Miller has a strong spring in the specialist role.

As others have said, I think Tazawa makes the opening 25, and likely could be the main set up man.

There will be trades before April (Morales and Mortensen may have value and maybe someone will gamble on Bard or Aceves), and I wouldn't be at all surprised to see 8 relievers on the opening day roster, with just 3 fielders on the bench (Ross, Ciriaco and OF/1B TBD).

The pen looks deep, especially if they stay healthy and if at least 2 of Hanrahan, Bailey, Aceves and Bard pitch like they did prior to 2012.

I'm still a believer in Aceves. Hopefully we don't sell low on him and watch him have a great 2011-type year for someone else.

In response to phxvlsoxfan's comment:

Normally you don't need 13 pitchers to start a season, because of the extra days off, but this year, we have 2 early days off (the day after the 2 openers- H & A), then no days off for the rest of April. 

We may go with 13.

Having Papi at DH really hurts the flexibility of the bench though.

I think Boston's bullpen is the 3rd best in the AL behind the Rays and A's.  

The Rays' pen is pretty sketchy.

I think the starting rotation will have a lot to do with how successful the BP plays out during the year.  If the starters can't go much beyond 5-6 innings, the pen will be overworked even with the depth it has to begin the year.  That said, the BP also has the ability to make any game over once the pen takes it in hand. 

In response to traven's comment:

I agree, but this pen has some nice 2-3 inning pitchers that may be able to absorb early starter exits better than most clubs.

In response to moonslav59's comment:

I listened to JF tonight and I agree that, although cliche, things should work themselves out.

Doubie already has a weak arm as well as Breslow. Morales could start the year in the rotation and Breslow on the DL. That frees up 2 bullpen spots. I dont think so, but maybe Buch still has a hammy too...A lot can happen in 4-6 weeks.

I think once mid-March approaches then we can start thinking about who goes where.

We know a couple guys have options, but Tazawa is way too improtand to start the year in AAA.

Its a great problem to have though and the bullpen is clearly this teams strong point.

In response to moonslav59's comment:

Bailey has 2 years of control and is an All-star closer. IMO he clearly has more value than Mort, even though Mort has a couple more years of control.