The 2013 Sox and OPS

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  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    The 2013 Sox and OPS

    posted at 1/20/2013 3:21 PM EST

    Here are the position by position comparative OPS numbers of the 2013 Sox players based on 2011 & 2012 numbers:

    Catcher:

    12th Salty  .740 (out of 18 catchers with over 800 PAs)

    21st Salty  .740 (out of 45 catchers with 350+ PAs)

    17th D Ross .766 (45 catchers with 350+ PAs)

     

    1st Base:

    4th  Napoli  .931 (out of 34 players who play 1B & have 800+ PAs)

     

    2nd Base:

    3rd  Pedroia  .831 (out of 31 2Bmen with 800+ PAs)

     

    3rd Base:

    7th Middlebrooks  .835 (out of 70 3Bmen with 250+ PAs)

     

    Short Stop:

    21st  S Drew    .687  (out of 35 SSs with 600+ PAs)

       (Sidenote: Drew places 8th out of 34 in SS OPs from 2010-2012 at .746)

     

    Left Field:

    15th  J Gomes  .787 (out of 34 LF'ers with 700+ PAs)

      (Sidenote: Gomes finishes 15th out of 35 from '10-'12 at .774 just blow CC)

     

    Center Field:

    5th  Ellsbury  .851  (out of 22 CF'ers with 1000+ PAs)

     

    Right Field:

    24th  Victorino    .771 (out of 32 with 750+ PAs RF'ers during the time he played CF) 

    16th  Victorino   .771 (out of 21 RF'ers with 1000+ PAs, assuming SV played RF)

     

    DH:

    1st   Ortiz   .981  (by about 100 points out of 14 DHs with 750+ PAs)

    1st out of 22 DHs with 500+ PAs

     

    Notes:

    Jonny Gomes has numbers that are slanted to LHPs (304 out of 705) during this time period.

    Interesting that only 22 Cf'ers had over 1000 PAs over the last 2 years, and only 18 CF'ers had more PAs than Jacoby.

    Expanding the sample size from 2 years to 3 years brings drew from 21st to 8th due to his big 2010 season.

     

  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: The 2013 Sox and OPS

    posted at 1/20/2013 3:49 PM EST

    good thread moon. I think our lineup is better than some think, that may just be the optimist in me talking though.

    expect salty and drew to top the list this year (as well as a big jump by Gomes)

     

  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from SonicsMonksLyresVicars. Show SonicsMonksLyresVicars's posts

    Re: The 2013 Sox and OPS

    posted at 1/20/2013 3:59 PM EST

    I just posted something similar elsewhere, let's keep the discussion here...I think it merits its own thread:

    ----------------------------- 

    I think we almost certainly will finish top 3 in runs scored in 2013 and top wouldn't shock me. Look at last year: wracked by injury all season and fielding a AAAA lineup for the last six weeks we still finished 5th in runs scored. We could improve at every position and will at most, in all probability. Don't forget, AGon had a poor year (for him) then Loney finished up at first, Pedey was injured, Youk was poor and Midds was injured late at 3rd, etc.

    Look at last season's RED SOX OPS by position :

    • 1B .795
    • 2B .768
    • SS .642
    • 3B .703
    • LF .744
    • CF .654
    • RF .751
    • DH .833
    • C   .708

    Assuming reasonable health, we should see improvements - some huge - at 8 positions. RF might be an OPS push, but with great fielding and base running from Shane I can live with that....and he may bounce back to .800 or so, you never know.

     

  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: The 2013 Sox and OPS

    posted at 1/20/2013 4:11 PM EST

    In response to mef429's comment:

    good thread moon. I think our lineup is better than some think, that may just be the optimist in me talking though.

    expect salty and drew to top the list this year (as well as a big jump by Gomes)




    Comparing to last year's team shows a lot of potential by position:

           2012    2 year OPS of curent players

    C:   .708     Salty .740/ D Ross .766      +40?

    1B:  .795    Napoli  .931                           +140?

    2B: .768     Pedey .831                            +60?

    3B: .703     Midds .835                             +120?

    SS: .642     Drew  .687 (3 yr # is .746)    +40?

    LF: .744     Gomes .787                            +40?

    CF: .654    Ellsbury .851                           +200?

    RF: .751   Victorino .771                           +20?

    DH: .833   Ortiz  .981                                 +150?

     

    As you can see, every position shows the ability to make gains- some very significant gains. A lot depends on health and how well or poorly the back-ups do.

     

  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: The 2013 Sox and OPS

    posted at 1/20/2013 4:12 PM EST

    In response to SonicsMonksLyresVicars' comment:

    I just posted something similar elsewhere, let's keep the discussion here...I think it merits its own thread:

    ----------------------------- 

    I think we almost certainly will finish top 3 in runs scored in 2013 and top wouldn't shock me. Look at last year: wracked by injury all season and fielding a AAAA lineup for the last six weeks we still finished 5th in runs scored. We could improve at every position and will at most, in all probability. Don't forget, AGon had a poor year (for him) then Loney finished up at first, Pedey was injured, Youk was poor and Midds was injured late at 3rd, etc.

    Look at last season's RED SOX OPS by position :

    • 1B .795
    • 2B .768
    • SS .642
    • 3B .703
    • LF .744
    • CF .654
    • RF .751
    • DH .833
    • C   .708

    Assuming reasonable health, we should see improvements - some huge - at 8 positions. RF might be an OPS push, but with great fielding and base running from Shane I can live with that....and he may bounce back to .800 or so, you never know.



    Wow! Great minds think alike...

     

  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from raider3524. Show raider3524's posts

    Re: The 2013 Sox and OPS

    posted at 1/20/2013 4:28 PM EST

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to SonicsMonksLyresVicars' comment:

     

    I just posted something similar elsewhere, let's keep the discussion here...I think it merits its own thread:

    ----------------------------- 

    I think we almost certainly will finish top 3 in runs scored in 2013 and top wouldn't shock me. Look at last year: wracked by injury all season and fielding a AAAA lineup for the last six weeks we still finished 5th in runs scored. We could improve at every position and will at most, in all probability. Don't forget, AGon had a poor year (for him) then Loney finished up at first, Pedey was injured, Youk was poor and Midds was injured late at 3rd, etc.

    Look at last season's RED SOX OPS by position :

    • 1B .795
    • 2B .768
    • SS .642
    • 3B .703
    • LF .744
    • CF .654
    • RF .751
    • DH .833
    • C   .708

    Assuming reasonable health, we should see improvements - some huge - at 8 positions. RF might be an OPS push, but with great fielding and base running from Shane I can live with that....and he may bounce back to .800 or so, you never know.

     



    Wow! Great minds think alike...

     



    that's why i like to read this board...we have some good minds here.

     

  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from SonicsMonksLyresVicars. Show SonicsMonksLyresVicars's posts

    Re: The 2013 Sox and OPS

    posted at 1/20/2013 4:36 PM EST

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    Comparing to last year's team shows a lot of potential by position:

           2012    2 year OPS of curent players

    C:   .708     Salty .740/ D Ross .766      +40?

    1B:  .795    Napoli  .931                           +140?

    2B: .768     Pedey .831                            +60?

    3B: .703     Midds .835                             +120?

    SS: .642     Drew  .687 (3 yr # is .746)    +40?

    LF: .744     Gomes .787                            +40?

    CF: .654    Ellsbury .851                           +200?

    RF: .751   Victorino .771                           +20?

    DH: .833   Ortiz  .981                                 +150?

     

    As you can see, every position shows the ability to make gains- some very significant gains. A lot depends on health and how well or poorly the back-ups do.




    The potential for improvement is huge.  I share injury concerns about Napi and Papi, and recognise the non-sexy nature of the Gomes and Victorino signings...but .654 from CF?  .703 from 3B?  .708 from C? (hello Ross/goodbye Lava (for now))  .744 from LF?

    Hopefully this thread will end the pre-season debate about offense. 

     

  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: The 2013 Sox and OPS

    posted at 1/20/2013 4:47 PM EST

    In response to SonicsMonksLyresVicars's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

     

    Comparing to last year's team shows a lot of potential by position:

           2012    2 year OPS of curent players

    C:   .708     Salty .740/ D Ross .766      +40?

    1B:  .795    Napoli  .931                           +140?

    2B: .768     Pedey .831                            +60?

    3B: .703     Midds .835                             +120?

    SS: .642     Drew  .687 (3 yr # is .746)    +40?

    LF: .744     Gomes .787                            +40?

    CF: .654    Ellsbury .851                           +200?

    RF: .751   Victorino .771                           +20?

    DH: .833   Ortiz  .981                                 +150?

     

    As you can see, every position shows the ability to make gains- some very significant gains. A lot depends on health and how well or poorly the back-ups do.

     




    The potential for improvement is huge.  I share injury concerns about Napi and Papi, and recognise the non-sexy nature of the Gomes and Victorino signings...but .654 from CF?  .703 from 3B?  .708 from C? (hello Ross/goodbye Lava (for now))  .744 from LF?

     

    Hopefully this thread will end the pre-season debate about offense. 



    Was there any reasonable debate about the offense? I don't remember many folks here argueing that this team won't be able to score runs. This team has nearly always been able to score runs. And thats a very good thing, because our pitching has nosedived every year since 2007. Last year we finished 12th in the AL in ERA. Its not about the hitting; its ALL about the pitching.

     

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  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from raider3524. Show raider3524's posts

    Re: The 2013 Sox and OPS

    posted at 1/20/2013 4:51 PM EST

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

    In response to SonicsMonksLyresVicars's comment:

     

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

     

    Comparing to last year's team shows a lot of potential by position:

           2012    2 year OPS of curent players

    C:   .708     Salty .740/ D Ross .766      +40?

    1B:  .795    Napoli  .931                           +140?

    2B: .768     Pedey .831                            +60?

    3B: .703     Midds .835                             +120?

    SS: .642     Drew  .687 (3 yr # is .746)    +40?

    LF: .744     Gomes .787                            +40?

    CF: .654    Ellsbury .851                           +200?

    RF: .751   Victorino .771                           +20?

    DH: .833   Ortiz  .981                                 +150?

     

    As you can see, every position shows the ability to make gains- some very significant gains. A lot depends on health and how well or poorly the back-ups do.

     




    The potential for improvement is huge.  I share injury concerns about Napi and Papi, and recognise the non-sexy nature of the Gomes and Victorino signings...but .654 from CF?  .703 from 3B?  .708 from C? (hello Ross/goodbye Lava (for now))  .744 from LF?

     

    Hopefully this thread will end the pre-season debate about offense. 

     



    Was there any reasonable debate about the offense? I don't remember many folks here argueing that this team won't be able to score runs. This team has nearly always been able to score runs. And thats a very good thing, because our pitching has nosedived every year since 2007. Last year we finished 12th in the AL in ERA. Its not about the hitting; its ALL about the pitching.

     



    let's hope john farrell can help with that.

     

  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: The 2013 Sox and OPS

    posted at 1/20/2013 5:11 PM EST

    In response to raider3524's comment:

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

     

    In response to SonicsMonksLyresVicars's comment:

     

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

     

    Comparing to last year's team shows a lot of potential by position:

           2012    2 year OPS of curent players

    C:   .708     Salty .740/ D Ross .766      +40?

    1B:  .795    Napoli  .931                           +140?

    2B: .768     Pedey .831                            +60?

    3B: .703     Midds .835                             +120?

    SS: .642     Drew  .687 (3 yr # is .746)    +40?

    LF: .744     Gomes .787                            +40?

    CF: .654    Ellsbury .851                           +200?

    RF: .751   Victorino .771                           +20?

    DH: .833   Ortiz  .981                                 +150?

     

    As you can see, every position shows the ability to make gains- some very significant gains. A lot depends on health and how well or poorly the back-ups do.

     




    The potential for improvement is huge.  I share injury concerns about Napi and Papi, and recognise the non-sexy nature of the Gomes and Victorino signings...but .654 from CF?  .703 from 3B?  .708 from C? (hello Ross/goodbye Lava (for now))  .744 from LF?

     

    Hopefully this thread will end the pre-season debate about offense. 

     



    Was there any reasonable debate about the offense? I don't remember many folks here argueing that this team won't be able to score runs. This team has nearly always been able to score runs. And thats a very good thing, because our pitching has nosedived every year since 2007. Last year we finished 12th in the AL in ERA. Its not about the hitting; its ALL about the pitching.

     

     



    let's hope john farrell can help with that.

     



    Hey-don't get me wrong. Its a good analysis by Moon, as usual. Its always good to look at the numbers. That said, its not really that important in the long run that our offense is going to probably be top 4 again in the AL. I am more concerned about how the TEAM can perform. I can see us losing a lot of 10-8 games.

     

  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from SonicsMonksLyresVicars. Show SonicsMonksLyresVicars's posts

    Re: The 2013 Sox and OPS

    posted at 1/20/2013 5:11 PM EST

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:



    The potential for improvement is huge.  I share injury concerns about Napi and Papi, and recognise the non-sexy nature of the Gomes and Victorino signings...but .654 from CF?  .703 from 3B?  .708 from C? (hello Ross/goodbye Lava (for now))  .744 from LF?

     

    Hopefully this thread will end the pre-season debate about offense. 


    Was there any reasonable debate about the offense? I don't remember many folks here argueing that this team won't be able to score runs. This team has nearly always been able to score runs. And thats a very good thing, because our pitching has nosedived every year since 2007. Last year we finished 12th in the AL in ERA. Its not about the hitting; its ALL about the pitching.

     




    No, no reasonable debate, just boring nonsense.  The belated Napoli signing sealed the offensive deal for me i.e. a major RH slugger if he can stay on the field as opposed to the sundry AAAA names being mooted for 1B.

    SP is the key, but I'm very happy with our offense and bullpen and satisfied with our up-the-middle defense.  Considering where we were in September that's pretty good.

    SP?  Our depth is good, but the key is getting a couple of them to pitch at 1/2 level.  If that happens (plus the rest pitching to my modest expectations) we will have a 90+ win season, a playoff spot and a reasonable chance for the title.  If not? Low- to mid-80s and no playoff spot. 

     

     

  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: The 2013 Sox and OPS

    posted at 1/20/2013 8:34 PM EST

    Good analysis Moon and Sonics...I agree that the pitching will be the difference with this team though.

    Naps should be at least as good as Gonzo's .807OPS last year. Not sure who they are getting to platoon with him. Any ideas. Could we look to trade with the Pirates again?

     

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  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from SonicsMonksLyresVicars. Show SonicsMonksLyresVicars's posts

    Re: The 2013 Sox and OPS

    posted at 1/20/2013 10:44 PM EST

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    Good analysis Moon and Sonics...I agree that the pitching will be the difference with this team though.

    Naps should be at least as good as Gonzo's .807OPS last year. Not sure who they are getting to platoon with him. Any ideas. Could we look to trade with the Pirates again?




    Platoon with Napi?  Why?  His career OPS vs. RHP (as a catcher) is .845.  

     

  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: The 2013 Sox and OPS

    posted at 1/20/2013 11:11 PM EST

    Our offense certainly would be much better with a solid and dependable clean-up hitter. Naps might put together a 600+ PA season with 30+ HRs, but I'm sure most of us feel like we have never really come close to replacing Manny. Not that Manny can ever be replaced, but we have not had anyone come close for more than 1 year here or there, and most had better numbers from the 5 or 6 slot- not the 4 slot.

    The other difficult offensive projection is timely hitting. It is something that comes and goes, and is harder to project than any other stat in MLB. It's nearly impossible to plan for timely hitting, since no player can be counted on to be clutch year in and year out.

    Offensive consistency is also an issue, but again, it's something hard to project or plan for from a GM standpoint.

     

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    Re: The 2013 Sox and OPS

    posted at 1/20/2013 11:57 PM EST

    In response to Softlaw1's comment:

    Napoli has problems showing up for work. He's also a terrible defender at first. The Crawford incompetence cost AGon. Let's not pretend that dumpster profile Napoli is an improvement over AGon, he most certainly isn't.



    Napoli is a much better contract, imho.

     

  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from SonicsMonksLyresVicars. Show SonicsMonksLyresVicars's posts

    Re: The 2013 Sox and OPS

    posted at 1/21/2013 12:19 AM EST

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    Our offense certainly would be much better with a solid and dependable clean-up hitter. Naps might put together a 600+ PA season with 30+ HRs, but I'm sure most of us feel like we have never really come close to replacing Manny. Not that Manny can ever be replaced, but we have not had anyone come close for more than 1 year here or there, and most had better numbers from the 5 or 6 slot- not the 4 slot.

    The other difficult offensive projection is timely hitting. It is something that comes and goes, and is harder to project than any other stat in MLB. It's nearly impossible to plan for timely hitting, since no player can be counted on to be clutch year in and year out.

    Offensive consistency is also an issue, but again, it's something hard to project or plan for from a GM standpoint.




    Agreed, Manny was a once/twice in a generation hitter.  I always felt he wasn't so much a "clutch" hitter as a guy that was so focussed on hitting nothing else mattered....not the game, the pitcher, the count or the weather.  Just him.

    Napi is no Manny, but I think the Sox are betting that at 1B (not C!), in Fenway, in the middle of a good lineup he can easily improve on his career .356/.507 average (OBP/SLG).

    I would too.  If he's healthy .400/.600 is not unreasonable....as a catcher in 2011 he went .414/.631, after all.

     

  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: The 2013 Sox and OPS

    posted at 1/21/2013 12:33 AM EST

    Naps has issues with staying healthy, and I'm not so sure we can blame it all on being a catcher. It's not like he has been catching all that many games over his career:

    GS'd at Catcher over 6 years in MLB: 77, 68, 71, 84, 59, 57, 69

     

    The other issue has been inconsistency (perhaps injury related). Here's his OPS over his 6 year career:

                        .960                     1.046

                                 .842

    .815  .794                   .784                .812

     

     

     

     

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    Re: The 2013 Sox and OPS

    posted at 1/21/2013 10:07 AM EST

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    Naps has issues with staying healthy, and I'm not so sure we can blame it all on being a catcher. It's not like he has been catching all that many games over his career:

    GS'd at Catcher over 6 years in MLB: 77, 68, 71, 84, 59, 57, 69

     

    The other issue has been inconsistency (perhaps injury related). Here's his OPS over his 6 year career:

                        .960                     1.046

                                 .842

    .815  .794                   .784                .812

     

     

     



    I'm going w/ this baseline:

    125 games played, .255 BA (fourth on team), .340 OBP (third on team), 24 HR (second on team), .867 OPS (second on team), 93 RBI (second on team)

     

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  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedSoxKimmi. Show RedSoxKimmi's posts

    Re: The 2013 Sox and OPS

    posted at 1/21/2013 1:49 PM EST

    In response to SonicsMonksLyresVicars's comment:

    I think we almost certainly will finish top 3 in runs scored in 2013 and top wouldn't shock me. Look at last year: wracked by injury all season and fielding a AAAA lineup for the last six weeks we still finished 5th in runs scored. We could improve at every position and will at most, in all probability. Don't forget, AGon had a poor year (for him) then Loney finished up at first, Pedey was injured, Youk was poor and Midds was injured late at 3rd, etc.

    Look at last season's RED SOX OPS by position :

    • 1B .795
    • 2B .768
    • SS .642
    • 3B .703
    • LF .744
    • CF .654
    • RF .751
    • DH .833
    • C .708

    Assuming reasonable health, we should see improvements - some huge - at 8 positions. RF might be an OPS push, but with great fielding and base running from Shane I can live with that....and he may bounce back to .800 or so, you never know.




    Here is a breakdown of the OBP component of OPS for last year's Red Sox by position:

    • 1B .325
    • 2B .333
    • SS .272
    • 3B .311
    • LF .327
    • CF .299
    • RF .309
    • DH .353
    • C .278

    I bring up OBP because improving OBP and plate discipline seems to be one of the areas of focus in signing players this offseason. Looking at career norms and projections for next season, there is a good chance that the team improves its OBP at all positions, some significantly, assuming relatively good health.

    By improving OBP and plate discipline, you indirectly improve so many other areas of offense by:

    1. making the pitcher work harder resulting in getting to the BP earlier
    2. putting more pressure on the pitcher which could result in more mistake pitches
    3. more baserunners puts more pressure on the defense and often opens up holes
    4. more baserunners with speed likely means more fastballs

     

     

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    Re: The 2013 Sox and OPS

    posted at 1/21/2013 2:20 PM EST

    In response to Softlaw1's comment:

    Napoli is a much better contract, imho.

    If Napoli could show up for work and played better defense he'd be a much better value and fit. Of course, he doesn't, so AGon is a better value and fit.



    Napoli should have a higher WAR/$.  James and Fans have similar projections, and has a WAR of 3.5 based on 530 PAs, consistent with his career norms.  Gonzalez has a projected WAR of 4.5.  James projects slightly higher on Gonzo, but as it stands now, it won't be enough for a $9M salary difference.

     

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    Re: The 2013 Sox and OPS

    posted at 1/21/2013 3:12 PM EST

    In response to RedSoxKimmi's comment:

    In response to SonicsMonksLyresVicars's comment:

     

    I think we almost certainly will finish top 3 in runs scored in 2013 and top wouldn't shock me. Look at last year: wracked by injury all season and fielding a AAAA lineup for the last six weeks we still finished 5th in runs scored. We could improve at every position and will at most, in all probability. Don't forget, AGon had a poor year (for him) then Loney finished up at first, Pedey was injured, Youk was poor and Midds was injured late at 3rd, etc.

    Look at last season's RED SOX OPS by position :

    • 1B .795
    • 2B .768
    • SS .642
    • 3B .703
    • LF .744
    • CF .654
    • RF .751
    • DH .833
    • C .708

    Assuming reasonable health, we should see improvements - some huge - at 8 positions. RF might be an OPS push, but with great fielding and base running from Shane I can live with that....and he may bounce back to .800 or so, you never know.

     




    Here is a breakdown of the OBP component of OPS for last year's Red Sox by position:

     

    • 1B .325
    • 2B .333
    • SS .272
    • 3B .311
    • LF .327
    • CF .299
    • RF .309
    • DH .353
    • C .278

    I bring up OBP because improving OBP and plate discipline seems to be one of the areas of focus in signing players this offseason. Looking at career norms and projections for next season, there is a good chance that the team improves its OBP at all positions, some significantly, assuming relatively good health.

    By improving OBP and plate discipline, you indirectly improve so many other areas of offense by:

    1. making the pitcher work harder resulting in getting to the BP earlier
    2. putting more pressure on the pitcher which could result in more mistake pitches
    3. more baserunners puts more pressure on the defense and often opens up holes
    4. more baserunners with speed likely means more fastballs

     



    #4 is the reason A-gon and pedroia had such huge years in 2011 batting behind big numbah two..

     

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