The Bottom Four and What They Might Want to Trade

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    The Bottom Four and What They Might Want to Trade

    I'll do a team by team rundown of the next four worse teams later, but here are what the 4 worst MLB teams by record may try to unload this deadline or winter as salary dumps or as players than hold enough value to trade for good prospects that will improve their long term outlook. These teams will be looking for prospects:


     


    39-57 Texas- Nolan Ryan must have seen the writing on wall. 


    Beltre (35) $18M for '15 & Voidable option $16M for '16. Beltre is too old to extend, so if we are interested in bringing him back, I wouldn't give up prospects for what we can get this winter with no prospects. 


     


    A. Rios (33) $13.5M club option for '15 ($1M buyout) I'm not interested as a player to give up prospects for.


     


    40-57 Houston- The 2017 SI Champs.


    J Castro 2 arb years left (made $2.45M this year) Rumors down here are that Astros management like their catchers on the farm and may be interested in trading Castro.


     


    40-56 Colorado- perhaps the team with the most to give us, but it's hard to gauge the park factor involved with some player's numbers.


    Tulowitzki (29) $20M for '18 to '19, then $14M for '20 with a club option for '21 at $15M ($4M buyout). A big splash megastar. I'd like to have him on the Sox, but wonder how much of his numbers are padded by playing in Colorado. I also think he cost a lot in prospects.


    C Gonzalez (28) $16M, $17M, & $20M the next 3 years. the .988 Home/.758 Road OPS splits worry too much to give a lot for C-Gon.


    Cuddyer (35) is a FA after this year, but may agree to extend as part of a deal. I've always liked this guy, but injuries and age are big factors in choosing to trade for and sign an extension. More likely, we may try and sign him this winter.


     


    40-55 Chicago Cubs


    Hammel (31) will be a FA after this year and will probably be traded somewhere. I'm not impressed enough to give good prospects for this guy.


     


    Did I miss any possible trade options from those 4 teams?


     


    Stay tuned for the next worse 4...


     


     


     


     


    Sox4ever

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: The Bottom Four and What They Might Want to Trade

    Tulowitzki has a 962/819 H/R split.


    Hammel was traded to the A's.

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from ma6dragon9. Show ma6dragon9's posts

    Re: The Bottom Four and What They Might Want to Trade


    The one guy on this list I would be really interested in would be Tulo. He currently IS, and HAS BEEN what people hope Boegarts will turn in to. And he's done it for about 7 years with remarkable consistency.

    He is a decent age (29), right handed power bat, and plays a position that isn't currently figured out for the long term. Will Deven Merrero pan out? Who knows.

    If the Sox plan to actually throw a truck of money at Lester, then they should make the team around him better as well. 

    He would be the middle of the order bat for the nest few years they have been searching for. They have the space on the team for him, right now. He's got the proven production to feel ok about it.

    Just one question...and I guess I could check, but am lazy...are those contract years accurate? Is he really under contract for 7 more seasons, with a buyout only for the 7th, taking him to 36? Because that would make me recoil.

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: The Bottom Four and What They Might Want to Trade

    Tulowitzki would be a nice get alright.

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: The Bottom Four and What They Might Want to Trade

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Tulowitzki would be a nice get alright.

    [/QUOTE]


    [object HTMLDivElement]

    .819 road OPS is very good, but I think the Coors effect would raise the price too much.  And he's averaged 113 games a year over 6 years.  My guess is that we'd be happy for about 3 years and not so much after that.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from pinstripezac35. Show pinstripezac35's posts

    Re: The Bottom Four and What They Might Want to Trade

    I'm thinking the rockies trade Tulowitzki

    the day after the marlins trade stanton

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from Sobchack. Show Sobchack's posts

    Re: The Bottom Four and What They Might Want to Trade

    Tulo would be great to dream on about.  I'd certainly welcome him.  I mean, they've been looking at Kemp - a $107M noose with bigger issues.  Why wouldn't they make an inquiry?  He's middle of the order power, and has 5 good years in him.  Move Bogie to 3B.  Holt can play LF.  

    Tulo's home splits would be fine at Fenway for the same reason Napoli fit the bill here.

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from redsoxpride34. Show redsoxpride34's posts

    Re: The Bottom Four and What They Might Want to Trade

    Tulo is without question the #1 target of all those guys, we need a game changer, someone to anchor our line up. 

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from MadMc44. Show MadMc44's posts

    Re: The Bottom Four and What They Might Want to Trade

    Rigs wants two power hitters and sign Lester????Let's see how we do that on $180---9.

    Stanton  and Tulo and you've wiped out the farm.

    Let's say Nap reaches his 20 HR Cruising Altitude--is  that enough for a power source or does he have to hit 30-40? My suggestion would be to go after JD Martinez or George Springer or perhaps Matt Adams from the Cards or Nelson Cruz next season.

    Moon brought up Alex Rios--he would make a nice fit in LF or RF. Still can run and has a good arm. If Xander doesn't get moved to LF he would be an excellent get as would Cruz. Cruz will be $20 +M signing next season. 

    If you want a SS I would look at JJ Hardy however in my mind Marrero is the SS of the future and he may be ready next season.

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from croc. Show croc's posts

    Re: The Bottom Four and What They Might Want to Trade

    Tulo's 3-year away splits are very good  .289 avg, 29 HR, 569 ABs , .873 OPS.  He'd cost a ton probably starting with Xander. Xander probably has those stats very soon.  

    They need pitching, maybe there is a non-Xander alternative. 

     

     

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from BogieAt12oclock. Show BogieAt12oclock's posts

    Re: The Bottom Four and What They Might Want to Trade

    In response to Sobchack's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Tulo would be great to dream on about.  I'd certainly welcome him.  I mean, they've been looking at Kemp - a $107M noose with bigger issues.  Why wouldn't they make an inquiry?  He's middle of the order power, and has 5 good years in him.  Move Bogie to 3B.  Holt can play LF.  

    Tulo's home splits would be fine at Fenway for the same reason Napoli fit the bill here.

    [/QUOTE]


    I agree. Tulo wouldn't need the help of thin air to hit one ovah the monster. However, I don't see the Rockies trading him anytime soon; and if they were willing to trade, it would definitely require a bunch of top prospects. None of our current 'veterans' would have any appeal to the Rockies.

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: The Bottom Four and What They Might Want to Trade

    In response to RigatoniT's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    You guys understand that Ortiz is a #5 now... and in two years he will either be gone or only hitting 15 homers...... Napoli is and always will be a #6.

    We need a #4 and a #5 hitter for 2015..... and we don't have any....

    The team needs not one but two power hitters (30+ 100+).

    [/QUOTE]


    [object HTMLDivElement]

    I assume that would be pretty difficult to swing.  In 2013, there were only 13 guys with 30 or more HRs, and one of them played for us.  And of the other 12 guys, maybe 10 of them can nominally play the field.  And since we already have a 1B and DH, only 3 others that hit 30 HRs, play a different position.

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from BogieAt12oclock. Show BogieAt12oclock's posts

    Re: The Bottom Four and What They Might Want to Trade

    I hope I'm not the only one to notice that true baseball talent is diminishing in MLB? It's also diminishing in the 3 other major sports. I blame video games.

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: The Bottom Four and What They Might Want to Trade

    In response to Joebreidey's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to RigatoniT's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    You guys understand that Ortiz is a #5 now... and in two years he will either be gone or only hitting 15 homers...... Napoli is and always will be a #6.

    We need a #4 and a #5 hitter for 2015..... and we don't have any....

    The team needs not one but two power hitters (30+ 100+).

    [/QUOTE]


    [object HTMLDivElement]

    I assume that would be pretty difficult to swing.  In 2013, there were only 13 guys with 30 or more HRs, and one of them played for us.  And of the other 12 guys, maybe 10 of them can nominally play the field.  And since we already have a 1B and DH, only 3 others that hit 30 HRs, play a different position.

    [/QUOTE]

    I see this happening for two reasons.  The steroid era has passed, and teams have focused more heavily recently on developing pitchers .  We might not have a lot of guys in our system who can hit 30+ HR's but I think we have a TON of guys who can hit 15-20, and hit for average, and in todays' baseball world that might be all a team needs.

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from ma6dragon9. Show ma6dragon9's posts

    Re: The Bottom Four and What They Might Want to Trade

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to Joebreidey's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to RigatoniT's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    You guys understand that Ortiz is a #5 now... and in two years he will either be gone or only hitting 15 homers...... Napoli is and always will be a #6.

    We need a #4 and a #5 hitter for 2015..... and we don't have any....

    The team needs not one but two power hitters (30+ 100+).

    [/QUOTE]


    [object HTMLDivElement]

    I assume that would be pretty difficult to swing.  In 2013, there were only 13 guys with 30 or more HRs, and one of them played for us.  And of the other 12 guys, maybe 10 of them can nominally play the field.  And since we already have a 1B and DH, only 3 others that hit 30 HRs, play a different position.

    [/QUOTE]

    I see this happening for two reasons.  The steroid era has passed, and teams have focused more heavily recently on developing pitchers .  We might not have a lot of guys in our system who can hit 30+ HR's but I think we have a TON of guys who can hit 15-20, and hit for average, and in todays' baseball world that might be all a team needs.

    [/QUOTE]


    Everyone's focused on HRs and that's a fundamental mistake. Extra base hits are what people should be looking at. When players are above 60 extra base hits, that's always the kind of guy you want in the middle of the order. Beltre is a perfect example. 28 HRs were a great help, but 49 doubles was OUTSTANDING. 79 extra base hits (2 triples) is a huge number. Manny/Ortiz in 2004 had 178 combined. 

    For comparison's sake...with all those home runs in 1961, Maris/Mantle combined for 157 extra base hits.

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: The Bottom Four and What They Might Want to Trade

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to Joebreidey's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to RigatoniT's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    You guys understand that Ortiz is a #5 now... and in two years he will either be gone or only hitting 15 homers...... Napoli is and always will be a #6.

    We need a #4 and a #5 hitter for 2015..... and we don't have any....

    The team needs not one but two power hitters (30+ 100+).

    [/QUOTE]


    [object HTMLDivElement]

    I assume that would be pretty difficult to swing.  In 2013, there were only 13 guys with 30 or more HRs, and one of them played for us.  And of the other 12 guys, maybe 10 of them can nominally play the field.  And since we already have a 1B and DH, only 3 others that hit 30 HRs, play a different position.

    [/QUOTE]

    I see this happening for two reasons.  The steroid era has passed, and teams have focused more heavily recently on developing pitchers .  We might not have a lot of guys in our system who can hit 30+ HR's but I think we have a TON of guys who can hit 15-20, and hit for average, and in todays' baseball world that might be all a team needs.

    [/QUOTE]


    [object HTMLDivElement]

    That was going to be my point I was pushing them to.  Scoring is heavily correlated to OPS, with OPS being slightly skewed towards OBP over SLG.  Having a 30-HR hitter, as rare as they are, is fine, but having 9 guys in the lineup that can hit fairly well, can accomplish the same thing.

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: The Bottom Four and What They Might Want to Trade

    In response to ma6dragon9's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to Joebreidey's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to RigatoniT's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    You guys understand that Ortiz is a #5 now... and in two years he will either be gone or only hitting 15 homers...... Napoli is and always will be a #6.

    We need a #4 and a #5 hitter for 2015..... and we don't have any....

    The team needs not one but two power hitters (30+ 100+).

    [/QUOTE]


    [object HTMLDivElement]

    I assume that would be pretty difficult to swing.  In 2013, there were only 13 guys with 30 or more HRs, and one of them played for us.  And of the other 12 guys, maybe 10 of them can nominally play the field.  And since we already have a 1B and DH, only 3 others that hit 30 HRs, play a different position.

    [/QUOTE]

    I see this happening for two reasons.  The steroid era has passed, and teams have focused more heavily recently on developing pitchers .  We might not have a lot of guys in our system who can hit 30+ HR's but I think we have a TON of guys who can hit 15-20, and hit for average, and in todays' baseball world that might be all a team needs.

    [/QUOTE]


    Everyone's focused on HRs and that's a fundamental mistake. Extra base hits are what people should be looking at. When players are above 60 extra base hits, that's always the kind of guy you want in the middle of the order. Beltre is a perfect example. 28 HRs were a great help, but 49 doubles was OUTSTANDING. 79 extra base hits (2 triples) is a huge number. Manny/Ortiz in 2004 had 178 combined. 

    For comparison's sake...with all those home runs in 1961, Maris/Mantle combined for 157 extra base hits.

    [/QUOTE]

    I completely 100% agree, people get stuck on the HR and underestimate the double/triple.

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: The Bottom Four and What They Might Want to Trade

    In response to ma6dragon9's comment:
    [QUOTE]


    The one guy on this list I would be really interested in would be Tulo. He currently IS, and HAS BEEN what people hope Boegarts will turn in to. And he's done it for about 7 years with remarkable consistency.

    He is a decent age (29), right handed power bat, and plays a position that isn't currently figured out for the long term. Will Deven Merrero pan out? Who knows.

    If the Sox plan to actually throw a truck of money at Lester, then they should make the team around him better as well. 

    He would be the middle of the order bat for the nest few years they have been searching for. They have the space on the team for him, right now. He's got the proven production to feel ok about it.

    Just one question...and I guess I could check, but am lazy...are those contract years accurate? Is he really under contract for 7 more seasons, with a buyout only for the 7th, taking him to 36? Because that would make me recoil.

    [/QUOTE]


    [object HTMLDivElement]

    I got the numbers from Cots, so I trust the accuracy.

    36 is not too old, but we'd certainly expect some decline for the last 2-3 years. Injuries have also been an issue, but every player acquired is a gamble to some extent, and I think Tulo is a good gamble. Getting excellent offense from the SS position is a huge positional gain on every other team in MLB. His fielding has also been better than average. He's ranked 6th out of 25 in UZR/150 since 2006. He's ranked 8th out of 32 MLB SSs with 1500+ innings since 2011 (+6.1 UZR/150).

    Tulo's .938 OPS since 2011 is 120 points higher than the next SS, HanRam!

    I'd have to see what Colorado would want for Tulo before saying I'm for a trade, but I think we have the pieces to offer, and I think Colorado would be happy to cut their payroll budget along the way. This does not mean I think he's a "salary dump". I think he is worth his contract, but to a team like Colorado, they would probably welcome the budget space created by trading one player, so they could begin looking to add younger players and building for the future.

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: The Bottom Four and What They Might Want to Trade

    Rigs wants two power hitters and sign Lester????Let's see how we do that on $180---9.\\

    We'll have about $80M to spend this winter. In theory, we could extend Lester and sign or trade for about $55M in contracts for 2 big boppers. Trading for Stanton and extending him would include his next couple low paying years, so his luxury tax limit number would be lower than expected.

    It can be done, but it would also mean every other position would have to be filled from within the system, or we'd have to go over the luxury limit. I think Ben may be allowed to go over for 1 year here and there, but not consistently and maybe not for 2015. 

    Sox4ever

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: The Bottom Four and What They Might Want to Trade

    In response to croc's comment:

    Tulo's 3-year away splits are very good  .289 avg, 29 HR, 569 ABs , .873 OPS.  He'd cost a ton probably starting with Xander. Xander probably has those stats very soon.  

    They need pitching, maybe there is a non-Xander alternative. 

    I still believe the scouts who say Xander Bogaerts will provide an impact bat, but chances are slim that Bogaerts will approach Troy Tulowitzki in terms of offensive production. I can't imagine that Bogaerts' glove will ever be a match for Tulowitzki's.

    Over his last 31 games, Bogaerts has posted a .106/.149/.159/.308 line in 121 plate appearances. The Red Sox may be fortunate if Bogaerts develops into a Starlin Castro, much less a Troy Tulowitzki.

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: The Bottom Four and What They Might Want to Trade

    In response to hill55's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to croc's comment:

    Tulo's 3-year away splits are very good  .289 avg, 29 HR, 569 ABs , .873 OPS.  He'd cost a ton probably starting with Xander. Xander probably has those stats very soon.  

    They need pitching, maybe there is a non-Xander alternative. 

    I still believe the scouts who say Xander Bogaerts will provide an impact bat, but chances are slim that Bogaerts will approach Troy Tulowitzki in terms of offensive production. I can't imagine that Bogaerts' glove will ever be a match for Tulowitzki's.

    Over his last 31 games, Bogaerts has posted a .106/.149/.159/.308 line in 121 plate appearances. The Red Sox may be fortunate if Bogaerts develops into a Starlin Castro, much less a Troy Tulowitzki.

    [/QUOTE]


    I doubt Bogey matches Tulo's numbers, but I do think he has a good chance to become an .800+ OPS player and could possibly end up over .850 for a few seasons. He's still very young. He deserves a learning curve.

    Sure, some posters here expected greatness right out of the box, but I think most of us expected him to go through some rough patches while he adjusted to MLB pitchers.

    I'm sure Colorado would like to have Bogey as part of a package to get Tulo, but they might not use him at SS, so they could ask for Bogey, Marrero and others in return.

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: The Bottom Four and What They Might Want to Trade

    I brought up the name of Starlin Castro because when he was Xander Bogaerts' age Castro already had an All Star season behind him. Elvis Andrus had played in an All Star game when he was younger than Bogaerts' current age (heck, Jose Lopez had as well).


    I still believe the scouts who say Xander Bogaerts will provide an impact bat, but I'm cautious in my expectations.

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: The Bottom Four and What They Might Want to Trade

    In response to hill55's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I brought up the name of Starlin Castro because when he was Xander Bogaerts' age Castro already had an All Star season behind him. Elvis Andrus had played in an All Star game when he was younger than Bogaerts' current age (heck, Jose Lopez had as well).

     

    I still believe the scouts who say Xander Bogaerts will provide an impact bat, but I'm cautious in my expectations.

    [/QUOTE]

    Development by NO means is linear, so its' kinda apples and oranges to say "well this guy did that at this age, so therefore this player should do this"

    It's fun as a reference point, and as a talking point, but I think it is important to remember that fact; that development is non-linear and different for everyone.  Bogaerts would still be one of the younger players if he was in AAA right now.

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from vtfanofcs. Show vtfanofcs's posts

    Re: The Bottom Four and What They Might Want to Trade

    In response to hill55's comment:


    In response to croc's comment:


    Tulo's 3-year away splits are very good  .289 avg, 29 HR, 569 ABs , .873 OPS.  He'd cost a ton probably starting with Xander. Xander probably has those stats very soon.  


    They need pitching, maybe there is a non-Xander alternative. 


    I still believe the scouts who say Xander Bogaerts will provide an impact bat, but chances are slim that Bogaerts will approach Troy Tulowitzki in terms of offensive production. I can't imagine that Bogaerts' glove will ever be a match for Tulowitzki's.


    Over his last 31 games, Bogaerts has posted a .106/.149/.159/.308 line in 121 plate appearances. The Red Sox may be fortunate if Bogaerts develops into a Starlin Castro, much less a Troy Tulowitzki.




      Troll.

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: The Bottom Four and What They Might Want to Trade

    In response to hill55's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I brought up the name of Starlin Castro because when he was Xander Bogaerts' age Castro already had an All Star season behind him. Elvis Andrus had played in an All Star game when he was younger than Bogaerts' current age (heck, Jose Lopez had as well).

     

    I still believe the scouts who say Xander Bogaerts will provide an impact bat, but I'm cautious in my expectations.

    [/QUOTE]


    Rightfully so... as with any prospect yet to get in a large ML sample size.

    I've seen a nice looking swing, but that's no guarantee of greatness at the plate.

    His defense has a long way to go, or a (another?) position change may be needed. 

     

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