The Danger

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from maxbialystock. Show maxbialystock's posts

    The Danger

    Pretty good novel by Dick Francis, one of his best.

    But this particular danger is the upcoming road trip to Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, and Houston. 

    On the surface, the Sox should be fine.  They just came off a terrific road trip, winning 8 of 9 against the Yankees, Jays, and Rays.  They have the best hitting/scoring in MLB and the best record in the AL.  Historically, the Sox have owned NL teams 

    But this trip looks different to me. 

    For one thing, it is unlikely that a key Sox hitter, Ortiz, will do much more than pinch hit because there is a significant drop off if he replaces AGon at 1B.  Plus the 9 hole will be filled by Sox pitchers.  Plus Crawford and Lowrie are on the DL, Drew/Crawford/McDonald are useless at the plate, and Scutaro/Sutton are decent but not nearly as good as the first five (Ellsbury, Pedroia, AGon, Youk, Ortiz).  Salty/Tek are also decent, but . . .

    Or look at it this way.  With Ortiz out, who will bat 5th, a pretty key slot in this lineup?  No one available is remotely as good as Ortiz with his over 1.000 OPS.  This is why Francona will be tempted to use AGon in RF to get Ortiz in the lineup, and I think he'll do it at least once.

    The Padres series is a reminder that good pitching can beat good hitting, even when the team with good pitching has weak hitters.  The Pirates and the Phillies both have good pitching--6th best and best in the NL, respectively--and their jobs will be easier given the loss of Ortiz, Crawford, and Lowrie and the requirement to send Sox pitchers to the plate. 

    What could really help is some great starting pitching, but right now that too is suspect.  Forget Lackey and Aceves and just say those were bad days.  What worries me is that Buchholz is on the DL, Beckett is still sick, Lester has been up and down this year, and Miller, who looked terrific in his first start, is still a young pitcher with a history of control issues.  Wake has been pretty darn good this year with 4 quality starts in 8 appearances, but he is also 44, has had a bad back (not this year), and his knuckler can sometimes be hittable.  The bullpen has had some good games, but also plenty of bad ones, and the closer has an ERA over over 4--well above his career ERA. 

    Given all the above, I will be OK with 4 or 5 wins this time around.  Not great, but not a disaster.  Six or more wins would be terrific.  But the danger is that Sox could go 3-6:  all that's needed is losing the Pirates series, winning the Astros series, and getting swept at Philly, the team with the best record in MLB and the best pitching staff. 

    Max, brother of Cassandra Bialystock


     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from sindarin-erebor. Show sindarin-erebor's posts

    Re: The Danger

    2-7 trip at best. Very possibley 0-9 brining the losing streak to 11.
     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from Alibiike. Show Alibiike's posts

    Re: The Danger

    We will get at least two wins on the trip as long as Wake gets some RS.
     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from maxbialystock. Show maxbialystock's posts

    Re: The Danger

    All right, so I'm a pessimist.  I admit it.  All us old guys have that ingrained in our psyches. 
     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from PaulLaCourse. Show PaulLaCourse's posts

    Re: The Danger

    All depends on how Tito manages. There is a lot more strategy in managing in the NL and this is not Tito's strong point.
     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from betterredthandead. Show betterredthandead's posts

    Re: The Danger

    In a close game, regardless of whether or not it's the last third of the game, the Red Sox axiom is to have sluggers swing away with slow runners on the bags. In other words, ignore the percentages.   
     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: The Danger

    In Response to Re: The Danger:
    [QUOTE]All depends on how Tito manages. There is a lot more strategy in managing in the NL and this is not Tito's strong point.
    Posted by PaulLaCourse[/QUOTE]

    Yeah, that probably explains why the Red Sox are 89-46 in interleague games under Francona.  97-46 if you count the World Series.  That complicated NL strategy stuff really messes him up.
     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from attic-dan. Show attic-dan's posts

    Re: The Danger

      The flip side is the Sox pitchers will be seeing easier line-ups they will have to grind out a few victories but overall even with the injuries and lack of DH A 5-4 trip seems very dueable
     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from fivekatz. Show fivekatz's posts

    Re: The Danger

    The OP is dark but the point is taken. The offense is thin without Ortiz or A-Gon basically running 4 deep. The rotation right now with Buch on the DL is Tummy ached Josh, Lester and duct tape. 

    As for NL managing, there isn't much to it actually which is why holding out on the DH so 48,000 can come to the park and watch fat guys make double switches is IMO dumb and why the DH is used everywhere in baseball but the NL.

    In many ways the AL is IMO more challenging because the manager has to change the pitcher based on merit, the batting order will never save him from staying with a guy too long.
     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from Sheriff-Rojas. Show Sheriff-Rojas's posts

    Re: The Danger

    In Response to
    All depends on how Tito manages. There is a lot more strategy in managing in the NL and this is not Tito's strong point.
    Posted by PaulLaCourse


    Yeah, that probably explains why the Red Sox are 89-46 in interleague games under Francona.  97-46 if you count the World Series.  That complicated NL strategy stuff really messes him up.

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: The Danger

    Yes I know good pitching is supposed to beat good hitting, but sometimes good hitting does win....and this is REALLY  good hitting.  But even great hitting will have it's moments, this San Diego series for example......good pitching didn't beat the Sox the Sox beat themselves.  They hit the ball just fine, but for whatever reasons maybe it was just pure luck ( I do attribute much of it to change) the Sox just did not hit with RISP, which they've been doing well this year.

    I'm confident they'll recover, my only concern is that playing a weaker opponent brings out the worst in them and they play at a lower lever.  If anything I think Philadelphia will bring out the best in Boston as long as they can roll in there hot. 
     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from harness. Show harness's posts

    Re: The Danger

    Jake
    Pedey
    AGONE
    YOUK
    Reddick
    Drew/CAM
    Scut
    Salty/Tek
    Pitcher.

    Deep bench.
    Decent pen
    Credible starting pitching

    They should hold their own.
     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from Sheriff-Rojas. Show Sheriff-Rojas's posts

    Re: The Danger

    In Response to The Danger:
    [QUOTE]Pretty good novel by Dick Francis, one of his best. But this particular danger is the upcoming road trip to Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, and Houston.  On the surface, the Sox should be fine.  They just came off a terrific road trip, winning 8 of 9 against the Yankees, Jays, and Rays.  They have the best hitting/scoring in MLB and the best record in the AL.  Historically, the Sox have owned NL teams  But this trip looks different to me.  For one thing, it is unlikely that a key Sox hitter, Ortiz, will do much more than pinch hit because there is a significant drop off if he replaces AGon at 1B.  Plus the 9 hole will be filled by Sox pitchers.  Plus Crawford and Lowrie are on the DL, Drew/Crawford/McDonald are useless at the plate, and Scutaro/Sutton are decent but not nearly as good as the first five (Ellsbury, Pedroia, AGon, Youk, Ortiz).  Salty/Tek are also decent, but . . . Or look at it this way.  With Ortiz out, who will bat 5th, a pretty key slot in this lineup?  No one available is remotely as good as Ortiz with his over 1.000 OPS.  This is why Francona will be tempted to use AGon in RF to get Ortiz in the lineup, and I think he'll do it at least once. The Padres series is a reminder that good pitching can beat good hitting, even when the team with good pitching has weak hitters.  The Pirates and the Phillies both have good pitching--6th best and best in the NL, respectively--and their jobs will be easier given the loss of Ortiz, Crawford, and Lowrie and the requirement to send Sox pitchers to the plate.  What could really help is some great starting pitching, but right now that too is suspect.  Forget Lackey and Aceves and just say those were bad days.  What worries me is that Buchholz is on the DL, Beckett is still sick, Lester has been up and down this year, and Miller, who looked terrific in his first start, is still a young pitcher with a history of control issues.  Wake has been pretty darn good this year with 4 quality starts in 8 appearances, but he is also 44, has had a bad back (not this year), and his knuckler can sometimes be hittable.  The bullpen has had some good games, but also plenty of bad ones, and the closer has an ERA over over 4--well above his career ERA.  Given all the above, I will be OK with 4 or 5 wins this time around.  Not great, but not a disaster.  Six or more wins would be terrific.  But the danger is that Sox could go 3-6:  all that's needed is losing the Pirates series, winning the Astros series, and getting swept at Philly, the team with the best record in MLB and the best pitching staff.  Max, brother of Cassandra Bialystock
    Posted by maxbialystock[/QUOTE]




    http://youtu.be/RG0ochx16Dg
     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from harness. Show harness's posts

    Re: The Danger

    Luv that youtube. Brings back memories.
     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from maxbialystock. Show maxbialystock's posts

    Re: The Danger

    Harness,

    Good lineup, good points. 

    That's a big responsibility for Reddick, batting 5th and right behind Youk, but right now he is probably the best choice.  The worst bat in my judgment should be whoever bats in front of the pitcher, and my choice would be Drew/Cam.  If Scutaro is in fact in a semi-hot streak, I'd bat him 7th. 

    Not sure about the deep bench except at catcher (Tek is a good number two).  Sutton, McDonald, and Cameron haven't done much this year.  Ortiz, of course, becomes a very feared pinch-hitter, but he only gets to do it once a game. 

    The starting pitching is more than credible when they are healthy.  But Francona has just shifted this year's ace, Beckett, another four days back to Tuesday.  That flu bug has lingered.  Lackey only starts one of the next 9 games, which is good.  Wake, Lester, Miller, and Beckett are each programmed to pitch twice and Lackey just one.  So, even with Buchholz on the DL, they are credible--if they stay (or get) healthy. 

    Concur the bullpen is decent. 
     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from ---The--Babe----. Show ---The--Babe----'s posts

    Re: The Danger

    In Response to Re: The Danger:
    [QUOTE]Jake Pedey AGONE YOUK Reddick Drew/CAM Scut Salty/Tek Pitcher. Deep bench. Decent pen Credible starting pitching They should hold their own.

    Posted by harness[/QUOTE]

    How are your orioles doing?

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from REBEL. Show REBEL's posts

    Re: The Danger

    In Response to The Danger:
    [QUOTE]Pretty good novel by Dick Francis, one of his best. But this particular danger is the upcoming road trip to Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, and Houston.  On the surface, the Sox should be fine.  They just came off a terrific road trip, winning 8 of 9 against the Yankees, Jays, and Rays.  They have the best hitting/scoring in MLB and the best record in the AL.  Historically, the Sox have owned NL teams  But this trip looks different to me.  For one thing, it is unlikely that a key Sox hitter, Ortiz, will do much more than pinch hit because there is a significant drop off if he replaces AGon at 1B.  Plus the 9 hole will be filled by Sox pitchers.  Plus Crawford and Lowrie are on the DL, Drew/Crawford/McDonald are useless at the plate, and Scutaro/Sutton are decent but not nearly as good as the first five (Ellsbury, Pedroia, AGon, Youk, Ortiz).  Salty/Tek are also decent, but . . . Or look at it this way.  With Ortiz out, who will bat 5th, a pretty key slot in this lineup?  No one available is remotely as good as Ortiz with his over 1.000 OPS.  This is why Francona will be tempted to use AGon in RF to get Ortiz in the lineup, and I think he'll do it at least once. The Padres series is a reminder that good pitching can beat good hitting, even when the team with good pitching has weak hitters.  The Pirates and the Phillies both have good pitching--6th best and best in the NL, respectively--and their jobs will be easier given the loss of Ortiz, Crawford, and Lowrie and the requirement to send Sox pitchers to the plate.  What could really help is some great starting pitching, but right now that too is suspect.  Forget Lackey and Aceves and just say those were bad days.  What worries me is that Buchholz is on the DL, Beckett is still sick, Lester has been up and down this year, and Miller, who looked terrific in his first start, is still a young pitcher with a history of control issues.  Wake has been pretty darn good this year with 4 quality starts in 8 appearances, but he is also 44, has had a bad back (not this year), and his knuckler can sometimes be hittable.  The bullpen has had some good games, but also plenty of bad ones, and the closer has an ERA over over 4--well above his career ERA.  Given all the above, I will be OK with 4 or 5 wins this time around.  Not great, but not a disaster.  Six or more wins would be terrific.  But the danger is that Sox could go 3-6:  all that's needed is losing the Pirates series, winning the Astros series, and getting swept at Philly, the team with the best record in MLB and the best pitching staff.  Max, brother of Cassandra Bialystock
    Posted by maxbialystock[/QUOTE]

    Wakefield has been known to swing a pretty good bat!
     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from maxbialystock. Show maxbialystock's posts

    Re: The Danger

    I hope this thread is no prophetic.  Things are not looking good tonight.  Cameron is actually playing worse than his norm this year, if that is possible.  Lester is struggling.  McDonald, batting 5th, did nothing with the bases loaded. 
     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from maxbialystock. Show maxbialystock's posts

    Re: The Danger

    Two of my gloom and doom points seem validated.  First and foremost, this is a weak Sox lineup.  Second, the Pirates have good pitching (6th best in the NL).  What's making it worse is that Lester is struggling, which has happened before this season. 
     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from betterredthandead. Show betterredthandead's posts

    Re: The Danger

    I wish Lester would take lessons from Tim Wastefield, so he, too, would put up a better ERA.
     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from maxbialystock. Show maxbialystock's posts

    Re: The Danger

    McDonald, batting 5th, leaves six guys on base.  What a guy. 
     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from harness. Show harness's posts

    Re: The Danger

    Never thought Tito would hit Mac 5th, which illuminates how RF continues to be a sore-spot. Not having CC hurts. The team is highly susceptible to southpaws - especially in N.L. parks.

    On the bright side, it's just one game. Lester continues to limit his repertoire and his velocity, yet still only allowed 2 ER in 6 frames. NY lost to CO - in NY. 

    At this point, I'd play Reddick over the aging Drew/Cam - regardless of the opposing pitcher. You can't drop off much farther than Drew/Cam/Mac.
     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from betterredthandead. Show betterredthandead's posts

    Re: The Danger

    Not having CC hurts.

    Losing Crawford's .275 OBP and 8 steals vs. 4 caught stealing has really hurt. Hard to find that kind of production in the OF. The offense hasn't been the same since the .275 OBP went on the DL.
     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from nhsteven. Show nhsteven's posts

    Re: The Danger

    In Response to Re: The Danger:
    [QUOTE]Never thought Tito would hit Mac 5th, which illuminates how RF continues to be a sore-spot. Not having CC hurts. The team is highly susceptible to southpaws - especially in N.L. parks. On the bright side, it's just one game. Lester continues to limit his repertoire and his velocity, yet still only allowed 2 ER in 6 frames. NY lost to CO - in NY.  At this point, I'd play Reddick over the aging Drew/Cam - regardless of the opposing pitcher. You can't drop off much farther than Drew/Cam/Mac.
    Posted by harness[/QUOTE]

    I was at the game; agreed. Based on 1 game, IMO Cam can't hit OR field (amazing, since he was among the best defensively just a few yrs ago), and now has a rainbow arm.  DMac is a black hole. Also, Youk is obviously hurting, and FWIW; Albers has great stuff; he threw a 94 MPH pitch that had 11 inches of break, at least according to the readings posted on the scoreboard. Gonzo has the sweetest swing I can recall; it may even be better than Mantle's.

    I was surrounded by RS fans; I admitted I was a NYA fan; the more I talked up the RS team and down the NYA team; the more they did the opposite. I guess you call this schmoozing. 

    We had a heck of a time talking Yankee-RS stuff, going back to the 60s. Remember the Bill Rohr game? Carbo (WS/Drugs) & Lynn (Rookie Yr/Injuries) were also discussed 
     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from betterredthandead. Show betterredthandead's posts

    Re: The Danger

    Very hard to play well when in a bench role. Crawford has been quite bad. Mac and Cameron have been bad, but they aren't being paid 20M to start. You might want to be more equitable in who you bash.
     
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