Re: The Elephants in the Room
posted at 8/6/2013 12:13 PM EDT
In response to moonslav59's comment:
Drew has hit off of 4 LHP since starting his hitting again last week. hes hit HR, 2b, Not just little base hits. I told you already, Drew hits any pitcher when hes hot.
Drew and everyone else. The problem is he is not hot more than he is not, and this is a tiny sample size. I do not expect a .600 hitter vs LHPs to continue hitting lefties well over the next 8 weeks.
Stop looking at his overall numbers and break it down by pitcher. That goes with EVERY hitter. Some RHH hit soime RHP great and some goes with LHP, and some like Drew, hit anyone when their hot.
Stop looking at tiny sample sizes like they are more important than larger ones.
LHP Drew has hit off of since 7/27
Troy Patton-Bal HR top 6th
Lutge - Sea. Line drive single to RF top 15th
Corbin- AZ 2 singles
Obleholtzer- Hou double
Mix in a couple walks off a couple LHP during that time and my theory is being proved.
I never said that when Drew is hot he doesn't hit LHPs. He still hits RHPs way better, even when hot, and the chances are he will come back to his norm. A norm that shows that he stinks vs LHPs. Think about it, if Drew does so well vs LHPs, how poorly must he do to bring his overall OPS vs LHPs to .600? Do you really think a hitter who hits maybe .800 vs LHPs for a few streaks here and there, but .500 the rest of the time an assett vs LHPs? How can you predict when he will be hot and when he will not be and play or bench him accordingly? You can't, so instead he plays everyday and ends up at about .600 vs LHPs at the end of the year.
Did you or John know 7/27 was the magic date? Do the games before 7/27 matter less than now or the future?
Drew has 106 PAs vs LHPs this year and a .189 BA, .255 OBP and .613 OPS.
In 2012, he had these numbers vs LHPs: 96 PAs .198/.260/.302/.563.
I am not big on small sample sizes as you know, but since you mentioned it, here are drew's numbers since 7/27:
7/27 vs RHP: Line drive 1B, HR
vs LHP: HR, K
7/28 vs RHP: K, BB, Line drive 2B
vs LHP: K
7/29 vs RHP: flyball 2B
vs LHP: K, K
7/30 vs RHP: GO, GO
vs LHP: GO, K
7/31 vs RHP: Line drive 1B, Deep Flyout CF, BB, K, K
vs LHP: Popout, Line drive 1B
8/1 vs RHP: Line drive 1B, GO, BB, BB
vs LHP: K
8/2 vs RHP: deep SF, BB, HR, GB 1B
vs LHP: n/a
8/3 vs RHP: /n/a
vs LHP: K, line drive 1B, line drive 1B, K
8/4 vs RHP: GIDP, GB 1B, pop 1B
vs LHP: BB
8/5 vs RHP: K
vs LHP: Popout, GB 2B, K
10 game sample size.
vs RHP: 10/19, 5 BB & SF (on base 15/24) 2HR, 2 2B, and 4Ks
vs LHP: 5/17, 1 BB (on base 6/18) 1 HR, 1 2B, and 9Ks out of 12 outs.
short sample size line:
vs RHP: .526/.625/.947/1.572
While .862 is very good, I'm not sure it overshadows the rest of his season vs LHPs. And, for all those who worry about Ks. He has 9 Ks out of 12 outs. 9 Ks in 18 PAs (50%).
Not sure this proves your theory.
It proves my theory WHEN HES SWINGING A HOT BAT. I think Ive been very clear about that.
My very simple arguement with you is that I dont platoon Drew when hes hot. PERIOD. And yes, you HAVE to look at tiny sample sizes for this arguement because we/I'm talking about hitting streaks, not the whole body of work.
Ive NEVER said not to throw in a RHH for him against some tough LHP he struggles with, but overall, Ill play Drew all the time because hes just that kind of player. You take the good with the bad. Iggy is a low 600OPS hitter regardless of his early season luck. Drews defense is plenty good enough to carry a low 600OPS when hes not swinging a hot bat.
With all these stats you can over think this game very easily. Platooning aall these guys gets them out of a rhythm and they have a very good chance of not performing as well as they would. Theres a much more importnant human element to this game. Its not just about ego.