The Elephants in the Room

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    The Elephants in the Room

    All the recent talk seems to be pointed at Napoli and his Ks. Looking at almost any sample size, 2013 season, last 28 days, or last 14 days, one can see that Napoli is near the the lead in almost every category:

    2013 Season: 2nd in OPS (3rd if you count Carp with just 172 PAs)

         2nd in OPS (3rd if you count Carp with 172 PAs)

         5th in OBP

        2nd in SLG%

        2nd in HRs

        1st in 2Bs

        2nd in XBHs (2 behind Papi)

        3rd in RBI (2 behind Pedey who has 36 more PAs with M.O.B & 14 more w/RISP)

    Last 28 days: 3rd in OPS

     

    Last 14 days: 5th in OPS

     

    Napoli should not be a 5 hitter, especially vs RHPs, but it's not his fault the team was pretty much forced to put him there due to lack of better options. (A case could have been made for Carp 5th vs RHPs by June this year.)

     

    The "elephants in the room" are barely mentioned, but to me are our clear offensive weaknesses:

    (Not in order of biggest team weakness)

    1) Pedroia vs RHPs (.383 SLG and .735 OPS batting 3rd everyday)

    2) Drew vs LHPs (.252 OBP and .600 OPS - now our everyday SS)

    3) Salty vs LHPs (.574 OPS and nobody trustworthy enough to platoon with him)

    4) Victorino vs RHPs (.314 OBP and .707 OPS firmly entrenched in the 2 slot FT)

    (Nava vs LHPs and Gomes vs RHPs are not a big concerns, since they can be platooned.)

    4 elephants: not many solutions in the system.

     

    Some possible suggestions that might help (feel free to pitch in with other ideas):

    1) Nava bat 2nd vs RHPs instead of Victorino (or Pedey 2nd with his .352 OBP v RHPs and Nava 3rd).

    2) Lava play vs LHPs despite the danger. Salty needs to rest or he will hit the wall soon.

    3) Holt play SS and Snyder 3B (or Boggy/Middy) vs LHPs despite the hit to Drew's ego, or try and make a waiver-wire deal for a platoon 3Bman or SS who kills lefties.

     

     

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from maxbialystock. Show maxbialystock's posts

    Re: The Elephants in the Room


    The elephants are actually rampaging through the jungle with the second best offense in MLB.  A weakness against good lefty starters?  Yep.  But all in all a pretty good lineup despite the absence of big bats--Ortiz being the exception, of course.  And, unlike the Tigers who have the best offense, the Sox don't seem to have PED issues. 

    By saying "elephants in the room," you seem to be implying that John Farrell is blind as a bat and can't see these manifest issues with his lineup.  Ditto Ben C, who traded for an arm, not a bat. 

     
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  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from MadMc44. Show MadMc44's posts

    Re: The Elephants in the Room

    Madden ,the magician, as we all know, has some consistentcy, but he is inconsistent about some things. It appears he has his best hitters at the top of the order and a decent hitter in the 9 hole.

    Longoria is generally 2 or 3--he wants his biggest HR threat and probably his best hitters around him. In addition his best long ball threat may get one or more extra at bats in the game. He is not concerned about scoring a ton of runs because of his A ++ pitching.

    This is the Rays more normal order:

    Jennings, Zobrist, Longoria, Myers, Loney, Escobar, Scott, Molina, Johnson.

    A proposed batting order for the Sox---leave your vanity , pride , whatever you call it outside the stadium: 

    Ells, Vic, Ortiz, Pedroia, Carp, WMB, Salty, Nap, Drew.  

    Bring WMB back up for tonights game--he may  respond very positively-and give the Sox the boost they need. DL Thornton.

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: The Elephants in the Room

    In response to maxbialystock's comment:


    The elephants are actually rampaging through the jungle with the second best offense in MLB.  A weakness against good lefty starters?  Yep.  But all in all a pretty good lineup despite the absence of big bats--Ortiz being the exception, of course.  And, unlike the Tigers who have the best offense, the Sox don't seem to have PED issues. 

    By saying "elephants in the room," you seem to be implying that John Farrell is blind as a bat and can't see these manifest issues with his lineup.  Ditto Ben C, who traded for an arm, not a bat. 



    No, the "implying" is in your court. Something you often get wrong, I might add. Farrell is given the team he is working with and has done a great job. Of all my posts on this site, I have never once said a bad word about John- not once. Everyone has some different opinions, but I have never pretended to know more than John or Ben, nor have I said they are at fault for any weaknesses we have. 

    Ben was given a team with many weaknesses. I called the Dodger trade "perhaps the best Sox trade made in my lifetime". I'd hardly call myself a Ben basher. Yes, my suggested winter strategy differed from Ben's, but I said over and over that he deserves a chance to show his success.

    The "elephants in the room" means just what I said: nobody dares talk about Pedey's struggles vs RHPs, particularly his low SLG% for a number 3 hittter in MLB, let alone on a conteder. Is there something John or Ben can do about it? Not muc, except to hope he turns things around, but my point was that Napoli is bearing almost the full brunt of attacks, while other more popular players are given a near free pass, hence the words "elephant in the room". When we signed Victorino, I was clearly against the trade. Hisfielding has turned out to be better than I envisioned, and in Fenway, fielding in RF is important, but at the time of the signing, I stressed that Shane has been bad vs RHP over his career and terrible in the previous 2-3 years before coming here. Since we face RHPs about 65% of the time, I was sure that $39M/3 was a mistake. I thought we could do better. I'm not sure, if anyone would now say the Shane signing has been great, especially in light of the health issues and his age, but overall Ben has done a very good job. I have admitted I was wrong about this team and several of its players. My positions have changed. I'm not sure what more I can do, except to sit back and hear you misrepresent my positions time and time again. You see, unlike many posters here, I can admit my mistakes and change my opinion, but you seem to "imply" that my position now, is the same as what it was last winter.

    I would not have moved Napoli down in the line-up until maybe sometime in June vs only RHPs. I'd hardly call that a scathing attack on John. I guess it may imply that Ben was at fault for not picking up a solid RH'd bat to protect Papi, but I'm pretty sure Ben knows that is a wekness on this team. He obviously did not like the cost associated with picking one up last winter, and chose to go with a more balanced approach to building this year's line-up. It has worked very well, but just because a poster singles out the weak links in a very good offense, it does not mean that poster is calling the offense or the builder of that offense a failure or a "blind" man. You are implying something I do not believe and something I have not said.

    We signed Drew and traded away Iggy knowing we have a weakness against LHPs and no viable inhouse solution for 2013. I get the reason for the Iggy trade, and maybe Peavy can fill that other big need I stressed this past winter: a solid top of rotation pitcher in case Buch and/or Lester struggle or have injury issues. This post was not about our pitching. There are few "elephants" on the staff right now, thanks to Ben and John.

    Our offense is fine, but still has weaknesses. The two ideas are not mutually exclusive of one another, and that is where, I believe,  your implying is at fault.

    I offered a few possible solutions to the issues. Personally, I would not bat Victorino 2nd vs RHPs, but I understand the argument for continuity and the fact that he makes contact and has speed. In no way am I calling John blind by playing him there. If anything, I am calling posters blind for bashing Naps vs RHPs instead of Shane and Dustin. I do not think moving Pedey is the answer, except maybe to try Papi 3rd and Pedey 4th, but that move is not clear, and I would not call John "blind" for not making it. It's not Ben or John's fault that Ross got hurt, and I don't expect a GM to build a roster with a solid 3rd catcher as a priority, besides we had hopes for Lava. Those hopes are now all but dashed, as we cannot afford to play Lava vs LHPs, even with Salty's sub .575 OPS vs LH'ers. There does not seem to be a solution to playing Drew vs LHPs, since Iggy is no longer with us. Playing Holt and Snyder on the leftside does not sound like winning baseball to me.

    I started this thread, because I am tired of the blame game almost always focusing on just one or two players. Baseball is a team sport, even though it is really a series of one on one showdowns: pitcher vs batter/batter vs pitcher/hitter vs fielder/runner vs thrower, etc... Yes, Napoli is not the ideal 5 slot hitter, especially vs RHPs this year, but we have other issues on offense- some I feel are at least as serious as our 5 slot issue. I also do not think Napoli is even close to a weak link, Ks and all. It's not his fault he is batting 5th. One might fault John for not trying Carp up 5th vs RHPs, but it is not like Carp has a long history of being a 5 slot type hitter. One might fault John for not trying Pedey or Nava up 2nd vs RHPs, but I undertsand the strategy. 

    What I don't understand is the near nonstop blaming of Napoli, when he clearly is not the weakest link in our line-up vs RHps or LHPs or both. Our weakest offensivelinks are, in no order...

    1) No feared RH'd hitter to bat behind Papi. (not easy to find or acquire)

    2) 2-3 black holes vs LHPs and no solutions (Drew and Salty in particular)

    3) 2nd and 3rd hitters vs RHPs not producing as we might hope they would

     

    I have gone to great legths to talk about the positives of this offense. I even painstakenly provided 9on another thread) all the OPS of the Al contending teams 1 through 9 slots in their batting orders to show that we are clearly the most balanced offense in the AL. I provided the numbers vs LHPs vs RHPs and Home vs Away which showed we are more balanced than Detroit, Tampa, Texas, or Oakland on offense. This does not mean we have no weak links. This does not mean we cannot improve. It does not mean I am implying Ben or John are bums either.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from crazyworldoftroybrown. Show crazyworldoftroybrown's posts

    Re: The Elephants in the Room

    Longoria is in a bigger slump than Napoli. Thats what worries me about the Rays.

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: The Elephants in the Room

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    All the recent talk seems to be pointed at Napoli and his Ks. Looking at almost any sample size, 2013 season, last 28 days, or last 14 days, one can see that Napoli is near the the lead in almost every category:

    2013 Season: 2nd in OPS (3rd if you count Carp with just 172 PAs)

         2nd in OPS (3rd if you count Carp with 172 PAs)

         5th in OBP

        2nd in SLG%

        2nd in HRs

        1st in 2Bs

        2nd in XBHs (2 behind Papi)

        3rd in RBI (2 behind Pedey who has 36 more PAs with M.O.B & 14 more w/RISP)

    Last 28 days: 3rd in OPS

     

    Last 14 days: 5th in OPS

     

    Napoli should not be a 5 hitter, especially vs RHPs, but it's not his fault the team was pretty much forced to put him there due to lack of better options. (A case could have been made for Carp 5th vs RHPs by June this year.)

     

    The "elephants in the room" are barely mentioned, but to me are our clear offensive weaknesses:

    (Not in order of biggest team weakness)

    1) Pedroia vs RHPs (.383 SLG and .735 OPS batting 3rd everyday)

    2) Drew vs LHPs (.252 OBP and .600 OPS - now our everyday SS)

    3) Salty vs LHPs (.574 OPS and nobody trustworthy enough to platoon with him)

    4) Victorino vs RHPs (.314 OBP and .707 OPS firmly entrenched in the 2 slot FT)

    (Nava vs LHPs and Gomes vs RHPs are not a big concerns, since they can be platooned.)

    4 elephants: not many solutions in the system.

     

    Some possible suggestions that might help (feel free to pitch in with other ideas):

    1) Nava bat 2nd vs RHPs instead of Victorino (or Pedey 2nd with his .352 OBP v RHPs and Nava 3rd).

    2) Lava play vs LHPs despite the danger. Salty needs to rest or he will hit the wall soon.

    3) Holt play SS and Snyder 3B (or Boggy/Middy) vs LHPs despite the hit to Drew's ego, or try and make a waiver-wire deal for a platoon 3Bman or SS who kills lefties.

     

     

     




    Drew has hit off of 4 LHP since starting his hitting again last week.  hes hit  HR, 2b, Not just little base hits. I told you already, Drew hits any pitcher when hes hot. Stop looking at his overall numbers and break it down by pitcher. That goes with EVERY hitter. Some RHH hit some RHP great and same goes with LHP, and some like Drew, hit anyone when their hot.

     

    LHP Drew has hit off of since 7/27

    Troy Patton-Bal  HR top 6th

    Lutge - Sea.  Line drive single to RF top 15th

    Corbin- AZ  2 singles

    Obleholtzer- Hou  double

    Mix in a couple walks off a couple LHP during that time and my theory is being proved. You dont platoon Drew when hes swinging a hot bat.

     
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  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from dgalehouse. Show dgalehouse's posts

    Re: The Elephants in the Room

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to maxbialystock's comment:

    [QUOTE]

     


    The elephants are actually rampaging through the jungle with the second best offense in MLB.  A weakness against good lefty starters?  Yep.  But all in all a pretty good lineup despite the absence of big bats--Ortiz being the exception, of course.  And, unlike the Tigers who have the best offense, the Sox don't seem to have PED issues. 

    By saying "elephants in the room," you seem to be implying that John Farrell is blind as a bat and can't see these manifest issues with his lineup.  Ditto Ben C, who traded for an arm, not a bat. 

     



    No, the "implying" is in your court. Something you often get wrong, I might add. Farrell is given the team he is working with and has done a great job. Of all my posts on this site, I have never once said a bad word about John- not once. Everyone has some different opinions, but I have never pretended to know more than John or Ben, nor have I said they are at fault for any weaknesses we have. 

     

    Ben was given a team with many weaknesses. I called the Dodger trade "perhaps the best Sox trade made in my lifetime". I'd hardly call myself a Ben basher. Yes, my suggested winter strategy differed from Ben's, but I said over and over that he deserves a chance to show his success.

    The "elephants in the room" means just what I said: nobody dares talk about Pedey's struggles vs RHPs, particularly his low SLG% for a number 3 hittter in MLB, let alone on a conteder. Is there something John or Ben can do about it? Not muc, except to hope he turns things around, but my point was that Napoli is bearing almost the full brunt of attacks, while other more popular players are given a near free pass, hence the words "elephant in the room". When we signed Victorino, I was clearly against the trade. Hisfielding has turned out to be better than I envisioned, and in Fenway, fielding in RF is important, but at the time of the signing, I stressed that Shane has been bad vs RHP over his career and terrible in the previous 2-3 years before coming here. Since we face RHPs about 65% of the time, I was sure that $39M/3 was a mistake. I thought we could do better. I'm not sure, if anyone would now say the Shane signing has been great, especially in light of the health issues and his age, but overall Ben has done a very good job. I have admitted I was wrong about this team and several of its players. My positions have changed. I'm not sure what more I can do, except to sit back and hear you misrepresent my positions time and time again. You see, unlike many posters here, I can admit my mistakes and change my opinion, but you seem to "imply" that my position now, is the same as what it was last winter.

    I would not have moved Napoli down in the line-up until maybe sometime in June vs only RHPs. I'd hardly call that a scathing attack on John. I guess it may imply that Ben was at fault for not picking up a solid RH'd bat to protect Papi, but I'm pretty sure Ben knows that is a wekness on this team. He obviously did not like the cost associated with picking one up last winter, and chose to go with a more balanced approach to building this year's line-up. It has worked very well, but just because a poster singles out the weak links in a very good offense, it does not mean that poster is calling the offense or the builder of that offense a failure or a "blind" man. You are implying something I do not believe and something I have not said.

    We signed Drew and traded away Iggy knowing we have a weakness against LHPs and no viable inhouse solution for 2013. I get the reason for the Iggy trade, and maybe Peavy can fill that other big need I stressed this past winter: a solid top of rotation pitcher in case Buch and/or Lester struggle or have injury issues. This post was not about our pitching. There are few "elephants" on the staff right now, thanks to Ben and John.

    Our offense is fine, but still has weaknesses. The two ideas are not mutually exclusive of one another, and that is where, I believe,  your implying is at fault.

    I offered a few possible solutions to the issues. Personally, I would not bat Victorino 2nd vs RHPs, but I understand the argument for continuity and the fact that he makes contact and has speed. In no way am I calling John blind by playing him there. If anything, I am calling posters blind for bashing Naps vs RHPs instead of Shane and Dustin. I do not think moving Pedey is the answer, except maybe to try Papi 3rd and Pedey 4th, but that move is not clear, and I would not call John "blind" for not making it. It's not Ben or John's fault that Ross got hurt, and I don't expect a GM to build a roster with a solid 3rd catcher as a priority, besides we had hopes for Lava. Those hopes are now all but dashed, as we cannot afford to play Lava vs LHPs, even with Salty's sub .575 OPS vs LH'ers. There does not seem to be a solution to playing Drew vs LHPs, since Iggy is no longer with us. Playing Holt and Snyder on the leftside does not sound like winning baseball to me.

    I started this thread, because I am tired of the blame game almost always focusing on just one or two players. Baseball is a team sport, even though it is really a series of one on one showdowns: pitcher vs batter/batter vs pitcher/hitter vs fielder/runner vs thrower, etc... Yes, Napoli is not the ideal 5 slot hitter, especially vs RHPs this year, but we have other issues on offense- some I feel are at least as serious as our 5 slot issue. I also do not think Napoli is even close to a weak link, Ks and all. It's not his fault he is batting 5th. One might fault John for not trying Carp up 5th vs RHPs, but it is not like Carp has a long history of being a 5 slot type hitter. One might fault John for not trying Pedey or Nava up 2nd vs RHPs, but I undertsand the strategy. 

    What I don't understand is the near nonstop blaming of Napoli, when he clearly is not the weakest link in our line-up vs RHps or LHPs or both. Our weakest offensivelinks are, in no order...

    1) No feared RH'd hitter to bat behind Papi. (not easy to find or acquire)

    2) 2-3 black holes vs LHPs and no solutions (Drew and Salty in particular)

    3) 2nd and 3rd hitters vs RHPs not producing as we might hope they would

     

    I have gone to great legths to talk about the positives of this offense. I even painstakenly provided 9on another thread) all the OPS of the Al contending teams 1 through 9 slots in their batting orders to show that we are clearly the most balanced offense in the AL. I provided the numbers vs LHPs vs RHPs and Home vs Away which showed we are more balanced than Detroit, Tampa, Texas, or Oakland on offense. This does not mean we have no weak links. This does not mean we cannot improve. It does not mean I am implying Ben or John are bums either.

    [/QUOTE]


    Pedroia has attained a level of popularity where he is almost immune from criticism. He looks like he is looking for a pitch middle in that he can drive. He stands pretty far off the plate. Watching him against righties, he bails just a little bit and becomes vulnerable to  a pitch away. Often , he lunges for the pitch with an awkward swing. I am sure that this is the book on how to pitch to him. Obviously , pitchers make mistakes , and he is still a good hitter. He is probably better suited to hitting second, where he is not expected to hit for power.   We don't really have better options for the third spot. What the batting order could really use is the emergence of Bogaerts and/or Middlebrooks.  For now, it looks like Farrell does not like to tinker with the first five or six spots depending on the opposing starter. On this forum, there are several posters who seem to take personally any criticism of the players, manager or the front office. Because the team is playing well, should not mean that there is not room for improvement. Even well behaved elephants in the room have to be dealt with before they do harm.

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: The Elephants in the Room

    I think it's an overstatement to say Pedroia's numbers vs. RHP are an elephant.  He has been in a slump for about a month now.  It's definitely a concern.  But his career numbers vs. RHP are good, so it seems very possible that he'll rebound.

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from rsinsider. Show rsinsider's posts

    Re: The Elephants in the Room

    Changing your lineup every day and platooning players for lefty righty matchups doesn't work ..... That's why nobody does it !!! This is not fantasy baseball guys on a team need to have a spot and be comfortable .....If your only going to pick apart stats then its easy to find so called weaknesses but baseball is sooooooo much more than stats and lefty righty platoons !!!!
    Wear your hat with pride or take it off!!!!

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from maxbialystock. Show maxbialystock's posts

    Re: The Elephants in the Room


    moonslav,

    My criticism was, I agree, over the top, primarily because I didn't get the point of the OP--your defense of Napoli.  My view of the lineup is simple--it is what it is and has been surprisingly successful.  If you aren't blaming Farrell, I am on your side.  If you agree the best bet for Ben C was to get a starter, again I agree even though I am torqued we lost Iglesias.  I did not buy the argument Iglesias would save runs, but loved watching him play--a true artist.  And his hitting, while still not great, has definitely improved.    While I too have heartburn with Napoli, I entirely agree the blame--it that is the right word for a lineup that is still the 2d best in MLB based on runs scored and OPS--needs to be shared.

    That said, I still have a quarrell with your metaphor--elephants--which I regard as over the top.  Your detailed criticism of the pieces of the lineup is well done, but doesn't add up to elephants in the room.  I happen to like metaphors, but prefer they be apt. 

     

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: The Elephants in the Room

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    All the recent talk seems to be pointed at Napoli and his Ks. Looking at almost any sample size, 2013 season, last 28 days, or last 14 days, one can see that Napoli is near the the lead in almost every category:

    2013 Season: 2nd in OPS (3rd if you count Carp with just 172 PAs)

         2nd in OPS (3rd if you count Carp with 172 PAs)

         5th in OBP

        2nd in SLG%

        2nd in HRs

        1st in 2Bs

        2nd in XBHs (2 behind Papi)

        3rd in RBI (2 behind Pedey who has 36 more PAs with M.O.B & 14 more w/RISP)

    Last 28 days: 3rd in OPS

     

    Last 14 days: 5th in OPS

     

    Napoli should not be a 5 hitter, especially vs RHPs, but it's not his fault the team was pretty much forced to put him there due to lack of better options. (A case could have been made for Carp 5th vs RHPs by June this year.)

     

    The "elephants in the room" are barely mentioned, but to me are our clear offensive weaknesses:

    (Not in order of biggest team weakness)

    1) Pedroia vs RHPs (.383 SLG and .735 OPS batting 3rd everyday)

    2) Drew vs LHPs (.252 OBP and .600 OPS - now our everyday SS)

    3) Salty vs LHPs (.574 OPS and nobody trustworthy enough to platoon with him)

    4) Victorino vs RHPs (.314 OBP and .707 OPS firmly entrenched in the 2 slot FT)

    (Nava vs LHPs and Gomes vs RHPs are not a big concerns, since they can be platooned.)

    4 elephants: not many solutions in the system.

     

    Some possible suggestions that might help (feel free to pitch in with other ideas):

    1) Nava bat 2nd vs RHPs instead of Victorino (or Pedey 2nd with his .352 OBP v RHPs and Nava 3rd).

    2) Lava play vs LHPs despite the danger. Salty needs to rest or he will hit the wall soon.

    3) Holt play SS and Snyder 3B (or Boggy/Middy) vs LHPs despite the hit to Drew's ego, or try and make a waiver-wire deal for a platoon 3Bman or SS who kills lefties.

     

     



    K-Nap is at .247/.766 since May 1 with 105 Ks in 319 PAs. Nava should bat fifth vs RHP, when he is available. It might not work out, but its worth a try.

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: The Elephants in the Room

    Drew has hit off of 4 LHP since starting his hitting again last week.  hes hit  HR, 2b, Not just little base hits. I told you already, Drew hits any pitcher when hes hot.

    Drew and everyone else. The problem is he is not hot more than he is not, and this is a tiny sample size. I do not expect a .600 hitter vs LHPs to continue hitting lefties well over the next 8 weeks.

     

    Stop looking at his overall numbers and break it down by pitcher. That goes with EVERY hitter. Some RHH hit soime RHP great and some goes with LHP, and some like Drew, hit anyone when their hot.

    Stop looking at tiny sample sizes like they are more important than larger ones. 

     

     

    LHP Drew has hit off of since 7/27

    Troy Patton-Bal  HR top 6th

    Lutge - Sea.  Line drive single to RF top 15th

    Corbin- AZ  2 singles

    Obleholtzer- Hou  double

    Mix in a couple walks off a couple LHP during that time and my theory is being proved.

    I never said that when Drew is hot he doesn't hit LHPs. He still hits RHPs way better, even when hot, and the chances are he will come back to his norm. A norm that shows that he stinks vs LHPs. Think about it, if Drew does so well vs LHPs, how poorly must he do to bring his overall OPS vs LHPs to .600? Do you really think a hitter who hits maybe .800 vs LHPs for a few streaks here and there, but .500 the rest of the time an assett vs LHPs? How can you predict when he will be hot and when he will not be and play or bench him accordingly? You can't, so instead he plays everyday and ends up at about .600 vs LHPs at the end of the year.

    Did you or John know 7/27 was the magic date? Do the games before 7/27 matter less than now or the future?

    Drew has 106 PAs vs LHPs this year and a .189 BA, .255 OBP and .613 OPS.

    In 2012, he had these numbers vs LHPs: 96 PAs .198/.260/.302/.563.

    Career: .236/.294/.396/.690

    I am not big on small sample sizes as you know, but since you mentioned it, here are drew's numbers since 7/27:

    7/27  vs RHP: Line drive 1B, HR

              vs LHP: HR, K

    7/28  vs RHP: K, BB, Line drive 2B

               vs LHP: K

    7/29  vs RHP: flyball 2B

              vs LHP: K, K

    7/30  vs RHP: GO, GO

              vs LHP: GO, K

    7/31  vs RHP: Line drive 1B, Deep Flyout CF, BB, K, K

              vs LHP: Popout, Line drive 1B

    8/1  vs RHP: Line drive 1B, GO, BB, BB

            vs LHP: K

    8/2  vs RHP: deep SF, BB, HR, GB 1B

            vs LHP: n/a

    8/3  vs RHP: /n/a

            vs LHP: K, line drive 1B, line drive 1B, K

    8/4  vs RHP: GIDP, GB 1B, pop 1B

            vs LHP: BB

    8/5  vs RHP: K

            vs LHP: Popout, GB 2B, K

     

    10 game sample size.

    vs RHP: 10/19, 5 BB & SF (on base 15/24) 2HR, 2 2B, and 4Ks

    vs LHP:  5/17,  1 BB (on base 6/18) 1 HR, 1 2B, and 9Ks out of 12 outs.

    short sample size line:

    vs RHP: .526/.625/.947/1.572

    vsLHP: .294/.333/.529/.862

     

    While .862 is very good, I'm not sure it overshadows the rest of his season vs LHPs. And, for all those who worry about Ks. He has 9 Ks out of 12 outs. 9 Ks in 18 PAs (50%).

     

    Not sure this proves your theory.

     

     

     

     

    Sox4ever

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: The Elephants in the Room

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    Drew has hit off of 4 LHP since starting his hitting again last week.  hes hit  HR, 2b, Not just little base hits. I told you already, Drew hits any pitcher when hes hot.

    Drew and everyone else. The problem is he is not hot more than he is not, and this is a tiny sample size. I do not expect a .600 hitter vs LHPs to continue hitting lefties well over the next 8 weeks.

     

    Stop looking at his overall numbers and break it down by pitcher. That goes with EVERY hitter. Some RHH hit soime RHP great and some goes with LHP, and some like Drew, hit anyone when their hot.

    Stop looking at tiny sample sizes like they are more important than larger ones. 

     

     

    LHP Drew has hit off of since 7/27

    Troy Patton-Bal  HR top 6th

    Lutge - Sea.  Line drive single to RF top 15th

    Corbin- AZ  2 singles

    Obleholtzer- Hou  double

    Mix in a couple walks off a couple LHP during that time and my theory is being proved.

    I never said that when Drew is hot he doesn't hit LHPs. He still hits RHPs way better, even when hot, and the chances are he will come back to his norm. A norm that shows that he stinks vs LHPs. Think about it, if Drew does so well vs LHPs, how poorly must he do to bring his overall OPS vs LHPs to .600? Do you really think a hitter who hits maybe .800 vs LHPs for a few streaks here and there, but .500 the rest of the time an assett vs LHPs? How can you predict when he will be hot and when he will not be and play or bench him accordingly? You can't, so instead he plays everyday and ends up at about .600 vs LHPs at the end of the year.

    Did you or John know 7/27 was the magic date? Do the games before 7/27 matter less than now or the future?

    Drew has 106 PAs vs LHPs this year and a .189 BA, .255 OBP and .613 OPS.

    In 2012, he had these numbers vs LHPs: 96 PAs .198/.260/.302/.563.

    Career: .236/.294/.396/.690

    I am not big on small sample sizes as you know, but since you mentioned it, here are drew's numbers since 7/27:

    7/27  vs RHP: Line drive 1B, HR

              vs LHP: HR, K

    7/28  vs RHP: K, BB, Line drive 2B

               vs LHP: K

    7/29  vs RHP: flyball 2B

              vs LHP: K, K

    7/30  vs RHP: GO, GO

              vs LHP: GO, K

    7/31  vs RHP: Line drive 1B, Deep Flyout CF, BB, K, K

              vs LHP: Popout, Line drive 1B

    8/1  vs RHP: Line drive 1B, GO, BB, BB

            vs LHP: K

    8/2  vs RHP: deep SF, BB, HR, GB 1B

            vs LHP: n/a

    8/3  vs RHP: /n/a

            vs LHP: K, line drive 1B, line drive 1B, K

    8/4  vs RHP: GIDP, GB 1B, pop 1B

            vs LHP: BB

    8/5  vs RHP: K

            vs LHP: Popout, GB 2B, K

     

    10 game sample size.

    vs RHP: 10/19, 5 BB & SF (on base 15/24) 2HR, 2 2B, and 4Ks

    vs LHP:  5/17,  1 BB (on base 6/18) 1 HR, 1 2B, and 9Ks out of 12 outs.

    short sample size line:

    vs RHP: .526/.625/.947/1.572

    vsLHP: .294/.333/.529/.862

     

    While .862 is very good, I'm not sure it overshadows the rest of his season vs LHPs. And, for all those who worry about Ks. He has 9 Ks out of 12 outs. 9 Ks in 18 PAs (50%).

     

    Not sure this proves your theory.

     

     

     

     

    Sox4ever

     



    It proves my theory WHEN HES SWINGING A HOT BAT. I think Ive been very clear about that.
    My very simple arguement with you is that I dont platoon Drew when hes hot. PERIOD. And yes, you HAVE to look at tiny sample sizes for this arguement because we/I'm talking about hitting streaks, not the whole body of work.

     

    Ive NEVER said not to throw in a RHH for him against some tough LHP he struggles with, but overall, Ill play Drew all the time because hes just that kind of player. You take the good with the bad. Iggy is a low 600OPS hitter regardless of his early season luck. Drews defense is plenty good enough to carry a low 600OPS when hes not swinging a hot bat.

    With all these stats you can over think this game very easily. Platooning aall these guys gets them out of a rhythm and they have a very good chance of not performing as well as they would. Theres a much more importnant human element to this game. Its not just about ego.

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: The Elephants in the Room

    Pedroia has attained a level of popularity where he is almost immune from criticism. He looks like he is looking for a pitch middle in that he can drive. He stands pretty far off the plate. Watching him against righties, he bails just a little bit and becomes vulnerable to  a pitch away. Often , he lunges for the pitch with an awkward swing. I am sure that this is the book on how to pitch to him. Obviously , pitchers make mistakes , and he is still a good hitter. He is probably better suited to hitting second, where he is not expected to hit for power.   We don't really have better options for the third spot. What the batting order could really use is the emergence of Bogaerts and/or Middlebrooks.  For now, it looks like Farrell does not like to tinker with the first five or six spots depending on the opposing starter. On this forum, there are several posters who seem to take personally any criticism of the players, manager or the front office. Because the team is playing well, should not mean that there is not room for improvement. Even well behaved elephants in the room have to be dealt with before they do harm.

    Well said. Although Nava is slumping to some extent, he may be a better option in the 3 slot vs RHPs. I'd like to see Pedey up 2nd vs RHPs (he still has a .350+ OBP) and 4th vs LHPs, but I may be in a minority on changing the line-up around this much.

    I'd maybe use this as a basic template- at leat for a while:

       vs RHP           vs LHP

    1)         Ellsbury

    2) Pedey      Victorino

    3) Nava         Ortiz

    4) Ortiz         Pedey

    5) Carp        Napoli

    6) Drew      Gomes

    7) Salty      Lava/Salty

    8) Naps      Drew/Holt

    9) Holt        Snyder

    Radical, I know, but something at least in this direction may help.

    Sox4ever

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: The Elephants in the Room

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

    I think it's an overstatement to say Pedroia's numbers vs. RHP are an elephant.  He has been in a slump for about a month now.  It's definitely a concern.  But his career numbers vs. RHP are good, so it seems very possible that he'll rebound.



    I agree, and said I would not mess with Pedey that much, except to move hom from 3 to 2 vs RHPs and 3 to 4 vs LHPs. That's not a demotion. I think we need to just pray he regains his form vs righties.

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: The Elephants in the Room

    In response to rsinsider's comment:

    Changing your lineup every day and platooning players for lefty righty matchups doesn't work ..... That's why nobody does it !!! This is not fantasy baseball guys on a team need to have a spot and be comfortable .....If your only going to pick apart stats then its easy to find so called weaknesses but baseball is sooooooo much more than stats and lefty righty platoons !!!!
    Wear your hat with pride or take it off!!!!



    Nobody does it?

    Everybody does it to some extent. We have done it with Gomes, as we should. We did it with Salty-Ross until Ross got hurt. We sat Drew vs LHPs pretty often, until we traded Iggy.

    I know the L-R splits are not set in stone, but they are one of the most consistent splits in MLB. Guys like Victorino and Gomes have long histories of doing very well vs LHPs, but poorly vs RHPs. yes, they have had a few exceptions here and there, but the differential is pronounced enough to do something about it. Drew, Salty and Nava have histories of doing very well vs RHPs and poorly vs LHPs. It's pretty predictable. Ignoring it is a danger.

    Look, I understand the theory that players crave continuity and comfort and knowing their set roles. I'm not saying we have to go to the extreme of my line-ups I just listed in a previous post, but a little tweek here and there may help. In case you haven't noticed, we have been in a serious funk vs LHPs.

    I'm glad Detroit has no lefty starters, but if we face the Rays in the playoffs, we will likely face Price and Moore 4 times out of 7.

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from Promise4you2. Show Promise4you2's posts

    Re: The Elephants in the Room

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:
    [QUOTE]

     

    I think it's an overstatement to say Pedroia's numbers vs. RHP are an elephant.  He has been in a slump for about a month now.  It's definitely a concern.  But his career numbers vs. RHP are good, so it seems very possible that he'll rebound.

     



    I agree, and said I would not mess with Pedey that much, except to move hom from 3 to 2 vs RHPs and 3 to 4 vs LHPs. That's not a demotion. I think we need to just pray he regains his form vs righties.

     

    [/QUOTE]

    Hi Moon, I think there is a more blairing statistic that many people are missing about Pedey. The guy plays hurt never says a word, he plays as hard or harder than any player in the game which creates serious wear and tear, especially when he has played 113 out of 114 games!

    Maybe whats really needed is a little rest to get him out of his mini slump!

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: The Elephants in the Room

    K-Nap is at .247/.766 since May 1 with 105 Ks in 319 PAs. Nava should bat fifth vs RHP, when he is available. It might not work out, but its worth a try.

     

    Not a bad idea, but only vs RHPs.

         BA                                 Napoli                       Nava                            Carp

    Since May 1st:                .247                         .280                         .284

    Since June 1st:              .244                          .282                        .340

    Since July 1st:                .261                          .271                        .310

    I'm not sure what the OPS numbers are above, but here is the BA/OPS, and nava's numbers don't look great:

    Last 28 days:           .295/.824                   .195/.570                .345/.860

    Sox4ever

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: The Elephants in the Room

    It proves my theory WHEN HES SWINGING A HOT BAT. I think Ive been very clear about that.
    My very simple arguement with you is that I dont platoon Drew when hes hot. PERIOD.

    But, you would when he's not hot? When do you determine he is hot or not? By the time you figure it out, he may get cold or hot again and reverse trends. 

     

    And yes, you HAVE to look at tiny sample sizes for this arguement because we/I'm talking about hitting streaks, not the whole body of work.

    Drew does eem to be hot right now. I'm not big on 10 game sample sizes, but at this point, our team does not have many other options on the leftsdie of the IF. I'm not high on Holt/Snyder both being in the line-up even vs LHPs instead of Drew, so of course, if Drew seems hot, keep playing him, but ideally, I'd want to sit Drew vs almost all LH'd starters.  In the long run, he will most likely bat near .600-.650 vs them, and to me, his defense is not that great to overcome that weakness. I also do not think not starting him in20-30% of the games is going to throw him out of whack, but I could be wrong.

     

    Ive NEVER said not to throw in a RHH for him against some tough LHP he struggles with, but overall, Ill play Drew all the time because hes just that kind of player. You take the good with the bad. Iggy is a low 600OPS hitter regardless of his early season luck. Drews defense is plenty good enough to carry a low 600OPS when hes not swinging a hot bat.

    I disagree. He's no Iggy on defense, and I believe you and others were not for carrying Iggy's .600 OPS because you felt his defense made up for it. (Correct me if I am wrong.)

     

    With all these stats you can over think this game very easily. Platooning aall these guys gets them out of a rhythm and they have a very good chance of not performing as well as they would. Theres a much more importnant human element to this game. Its not just about ego.

    Gomes has been platooned for years.

    Salty has been platooned. With Tito it was by caddying certain starters not L-R, but he was platooned none the less.

    Victorino has not been platooned, but as he has aged, his split's differential has become more pronounced. He also seems to do pretty well after having multiple days off here and there.... just not vs RHPs. I understand his ego may get bruised by batting him 8th vs RHPs, but a sub .650 OPS batting 2nd in 65% of our games is not exactly good for the team either. It may not be all about ego. There is something to comfort zones and routines, but this team has seen its players bounced all over the line-up, except for Ellsbury, Pedey and Papi, although batting 3rd is pretty new for him.

    Sox4ever

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: The Elephants in the Room

    I agree, and said I would not mess with Pedey that much, except to move hom from 3 to 2 vs RHPs and 3 to 4 vs LHPs. That's not a demotion. I think we need to just pray he regains his form vs righties.

     

     

     



    Hi Moon, I think there is a more blairing statistic that many people are missing about Pedey. The guy plays hurt never says a word, he plays as hard or harder than any player in the game which creates serious wear and tear, especially when he has played 113 out of 114 games!

     

    Maybe whats really needed is a little rest to get him out of his mini slump!

     

    Great point, but he may not get that until September call ups.

    Sox4ever

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: The Elephants in the Room

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    K-Nap is at .247/.766 since May 1 with 105 Ks in 319 PAs. Nava should bat fifth vs RHP, when he is available. It might not work out, but its worth a try.

     

    Not a bad idea, but only vs RHPs.

         BA                                 Napoli                       Nava                            Carp

    Since May 1st:                .247                         .280                         .284

    Since June 1st:              .244                          .282                        .340

    Since July 1st:                .261                          .271                        .310

    I'm not sure what the OPS numbers are above, but here is the BA/OPS, and nava's numbers don't look great:

    Last 28 days:           .295/.824                   .195/.570                .345/.860

    Sox4ever



    Yes, only vs RHP-when he plays at all. If you look at Carp's OPS vs RHP and compare it to Napoli's (.318/.989 vs .257/.808) it would show that Carp has earned a lot more playing time vs RHP. Now I admit that he might get exposed as a weak hitter with more ABs, and I expect his .989 split vs RHP will go down, but it IS 191 points higher than KNap's-and he strikes out less than KNap vs RHP as well. My solution is to play Carp much more often vs RHP at first base, not quite a platoon, but I would play him maybe 75% of the time there, and when KNap plays vs RHP move him to the seventh spot and bat Nava fifth. Interestingly, Napoli is hitting LHP WORSE than RHP (.246/.747), but there is no good RH bat to substitute for him right now vs LHP.

    What is crystal clear is the Napoli is not doing the job of a #5 batter and SOMETHING needs to be tried NOW. Watching him flail about in futility is a joke and is doing damage to the team.

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: The Elephants in the Room

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    It proves my theory WHEN HES SWINGING A HOT BAT. I think Ive been very clear about that.
    My very simple arguement with you is that I dont platoon Drew when hes hot. PERIOD.

    But, you would when he's not hot? When do you determine he is hot or not? By the time you figure it out, he may get cold or hot again and reverse trends. 

    I said SOME tough LHP he has trouble with, not a full platoon. I also said Drew is the kind of player that plays all the time. Your talking about most LHP and Im only talking a couple. Thanks, but Ive figured it out already and have been trying to explain it to you.

     

    And yes, you HAVE to look at tiny sample sizes for this arguement because we/I'm talking about hitting streaks, not the whole body of work.

    Drew does eem to be hot right now. I'm not big on 10 game sample sizes, but at this point, our team does not have many other options on the leftsdie of the IF. I'm not high on Holt/Snyder both being in the line-up even vs LHPs instead of Drew, so of course, if Drew seems hot, keep playing him, but ideally, I'd want to sit Drew vs almost all LH'd starters.  In the long run, he will most likely bat near .600-.650 vs them, and to me, his defense is not that great to overcome that weakness. I also do not think not starting him in20-30% of the games is going to throw him out of whack, but I could be wrong.

    You want to play Drew in 120 games a year? No way. Hes a FT player and has had a 750-800 OPS throughout his career, so it makes no sense to have a full platoon vs LHP with this kind of hitter. Hes been 100pts over the league average for an MLB SS even with a few bad games vs.LHP.

     

    Ive NEVER said not to throw in a RHH for him against some tough LHP he struggles with, but overall, Ill play Drew all the time because hes just that kind of player. You take the good with the bad. Iggy is a low 600OPS hitter regardless of his early season luck. Drews defense is plenty good enough to carry a low 600OPS when hes not swinging a hot bat.

    I disagree. He's no Iggy on defense, and I believe you and others were not for carrying Iggy's .600 OPS because you felt his defense made up for it. (Correct me if I am wrong.)

    The thing is, Iggy is a 600OPS all the time whereas Drew will go on 900OPS streaks and is a 750-800OPS player. Knowing that, you can deal with the down times. Hes no Iggy on defense, but besides a couple highlight reels plays, hes a very solid MLB SS who makes few mistakes.

     

    With all these stats you can over think this game very easily. Platooning aall these guys gets them out of a rhythm and they have a very good chance of not performing as well as they would. Theres a much more importnant human element to this game. Its not just about ego.

    Gomes has been platooned for years.

    Thus, hes used to it. Guys like Drew play 150 games a year when healthy and are not used to being platooned. Guys like that usually dont do well when being platooned.

    Salty has been platooned. With Tito it was by caddying certain starters not L-R, but he was platooned none the less.

    Most Catchers always have some level of platooning every year or they would burn out if they tried to play 150 games.

    Victorino has not been platooned, but as he has aged, his split's differential has become more pronounced. He also seems to do pretty well after having multiple days off here and there.... just not vs RHPs. I understand his ego may get bruised by batting him 8th vs RHPs, but a sub .650 OPS batting 2nd in 65% of our games is not exactly good for the team either. It may not be all about ego. There is something to comfort zones and routines, but this team has seen its players bounced all over the line-up, except for Ellsbury, Pedey and Papi, although batting 3rd is pretty new for him.

    I guess we will have to agree to disagree on Drew once again Moon. I value his bat and defense more than you do. I respect your opinions, but I just dont see Drew as a player that deserves to not play 40+ games a year like you suggest. Especially with a career .761 OPS at SS and who has a .756OPS this year.

    Sox4ever




     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from dannycater. Show dannycater's posts

    Re: The Elephants in the Room

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    All the recent talk seems to be pointed at Napoli and his Ks. Looking at almost any sample size, 2013 season, last 28 days, or last 14 days, one can see that Napoli is near the the lead in almost every category:

    2013 Season: 2nd in OPS (3rd if you count Carp with just 172 PAs)

         2nd in OPS (3rd if you count Carp with 172 PAs)

         5th in OBP

        2nd in SLG%

        2nd in HRs

        1st in 2Bs

        2nd in XBHs (2 behind Papi)

        3rd in RBI (2 behind Pedey who has 36 more PAs with M.O.B & 14 more w/RISP)

    Last 28 days: 3rd in OPS

     

    Last 14 days: 5th in OPS

     

    Napoli should not be a 5 hitter, especially vs RHPs, but it's not his fault the team was pretty much forced to put him there due to lack of better options. (A case could have been made for Carp 5th vs RHPs by June this year.)

     

    The "elephants in the room" are barely mentioned, but to me are our clear offensive weaknesses:

    (Not in order of biggest team weakness)

    1) Pedroia vs RHPs (.383 SLG and .735 OPS batting 3rd everyday)

    2) Drew vs LHPs (.252 OBP and .600 OPS - now our everyday SS)

    3) Salty vs LHPs (.574 OPS and nobody trustworthy enough to platoon with him)

    4) Victorino vs RHPs (.314 OBP and .707 OPS firmly entrenched in the 2 slot FT)

    (Nava vs LHPs and Gomes vs RHPs are not a big concerns, since they can be platooned.)

    4 elephants: not many solutions in the system.

     

    Some possible suggestions that might help (feel free to pitch in with other ideas):

    1) Nava bat 2nd vs RHPs instead of Victorino (or Pedey 2nd with his .352 OBP v RHPs and Nava 3rd).

    2) Lava play vs LHPs despite the danger. Salty needs to rest or he will hit the wall soon.

    3) Holt play SS and Snyder 3B (or Boggy/Middy) vs LHPs despite the hit to Drew's ego, or try and make a waiver-wire deal for a platoon 3Bman or SS who kills lefties.

     

     




    1) Pedroia vs RHPs (.383 SLG and .735 OPS batting 3rd everyday)


    It's interesting how one writer said this is Pedroia's best season ever...I was like, are you kidding. He doesn't hit for any power, it's his lowest OPS season. Defensively, he's a stud, and he's been that way for all of his career. I think that he has trouble hitting righties for anything other than singles, is pretty scary. I'm convinced he may have been taking steriods in some of his earlier years..I hope I"m wrong, but it's pointing that way. 

     
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