The Elephants in the Room

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: The Elephants in the Room

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to dgalehouse's comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    [QUOTE]

     

     

    Rixght now Drew's .668 vs LH'd starter games is not much worse than going with Holt at SS and Snyder at 3B vs LHPs, so I do not see any changes being helpful with the roster as it is right now, but the fact is, it remains an elephant on the same scale as Napoli's.

    Sox4ever

     

     



    By the way , if you are going to the game tonight, don't wear the same cap as last night. That one did not work. 

     

     

     

    [/QUOTE]

    I'll wear my red Sox shirt not the blue one.

     

    I don't wear caps.

    My luck has not been good at Sox games.

    [/QUOTE]

    you don't wear caps?!? ugh what are we going to do with you moon?

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: The Elephants in the Room

    In response to mef429's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

    In response to dgalehouse's comment:

     

    [QUOTE]

     

     

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

     

    [QUOTE]

     

     

     

    Rixght now Drew's .668 vs LH'd starter games is not much worse than going with Holt at SS and Snyder at 3B vs LHPs, so I do not see any changes being helpful with the roster as it is right now, but the fact is, it remains an elephant on the same scale as Napoli's.

    Sox4ever

     

     

     



    By the way , if you are going to the game tonight, don't wear the same cap as last night. That one did not work. 

     

     

     

     

     

    [/QUOTE]

    I'll wear my red Sox shirt not the blue one.

     

     

    I don't wear caps.

    My luck has not been good at Sox games.

     

    [/QUOTE]

    you don't wear caps?!? ugh what are we going to do with you moon?

     

    [/QUOTE]

    I'm a sweat hog.

    If I wear a cap, I'm a mess.

    I'll never get used to this humidity and 100 degree temps down here.

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from Promise4you2. Show Promise4you2's posts

    Re: The Elephants in the Room

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    Last night I was being the first base dugout 24 rows back.

    There must have as many Sox fans as Stros fans.

    I'm in the nosebleed section tonight: 3b side top tier but row 1.

    I'm the bald guy next to the hot Mexicana.

    Sox4ever



    Im in Houston all next week, my timing is like the 65 sox! BAD!

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from Promise4you2. Show Promise4you2's posts

    Re: The Elephants in the Room

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to mef429's comment:
    [QUOTE]

     

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    [QUOTE]

    To your I dont do good at Sox games, momma and I have decrlared we wont do any more sox games traveling, they always lose!

     

    In response to dgalehouse's comment:

     

    [QUOTE]

     

     

     

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

     

    [QUOTE]

     

     

     

     

    Rixght now Drew's .668 vs LH'd starter games is not much worse than going with Holt at SS and Snyder at 3B vs LHPs, so I do not see any changes being helpful with the roster as it is right now, but the fact is, it remains an elephant on the same scale as Napoli's.

    Sox4ever

     

     

     

     



    By the way , if you are going to the game tonight, don't wear the same cap as last night. That one did not work. 

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    [/QUOTE]

    I'll wear my red Sox shirt not the blue one.

     

     

     

    I don't wear caps.

    My luck has not been good at Sox games.

     

     

    [/QUOTE]

    you don't wear caps?!? ugh what are we going to do with you moon?

     

     

     

    [/QUOTE]

    I'm a sweat hog.

     

    If I wear a cap, I'm a mess.

    I'll never get used to this humidity and 100 degree temps down here.

    [/QUOTE]


     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from TheExaminer. Show TheExaminer's posts

    Re: The Elephants in the Room

    In response to Bill-806's comment:

    "LET ME BE CLEAR", perhaps the "chickens are coming home to roost"  !!!!!



    As dad would say: "Son, let those chickens come home, I want some nuggets."

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: The Elephants in the Room

    The "elephants in the room" are barely mentioned, but to me are our clear offensive weaknesses:

    (Not in order of biggest team weakness)

    1) Pedroia vs RHPs (.383 SLG and .735 OPS batting 3rd everyday)

    2) Drew vs LHPs (.252 OBP and .600 OPS - now our everyday SS)

    3) Salty vs LHPs (.574 OPS and nobody trustworthy enough to platoon with him)

    4) Victorino vs RHPs (.314 OBP and .707 OPS firmly entrenched in the 2 slot FT)

    Those aren't clear offensive weaknesses.  Most players have a weaker side.  If I examine 9 players from every team, I have no doubt I can find plenty of weaknesses.

    • Cano has a .919/.758 L/R split.
    • Adam Jones has a .854/.741
    • Longoria has a .774/.974.

    In addition, you're picking our #8 hitter, with a .600 against lefties (.613 actually).  So far, that is 95 ABs.  Since the average OPS for a SS is .669, the difference between .669 and .613, for 3,952 ABs, is less than negligible.  It might improve overall OPS by about a point.

    And lastly, since you have two weaknesses against lefties and two against righties, it nets out to -0- weaknesses, provided no one pitches with both hands at the same time.  For example, if you penalize Salty and Drew by starting a lefty, Vic and Pedey will have higher OPS.

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: The Elephants in the Room

    In response to Joebreidey's comment:

    The "elephants in the room" are barely mentioned, but to me are our clear offensive weaknesses:

    (Not in order of biggest team weakness)

    1) Pedroia vs RHPs (.383 SLG and .735 OPS batting 3rd everyday)

    2) Drew vs LHPs (.252 OBP and .600 OPS - now our everyday SS)

    3) Salty vs LHPs (.574 OPS and nobody trustworthy enough to platoon with him)

    4) Victorino vs RHPs (.314 OBP and .707 OPS firmly entrenched in the 2 slot FT)

     

    Those aren't clear offensive weaknesses.  Most players have a weaker side.  If I examine 9 players from every team, I have no doubt I can find plenty of weaknesses.

     

    I never said other team don't have weaknesses or even that other teams have less weaknesses than us, but like it or not, we have several weaknesses on this team, including the 4 listed above. If Ross gets healthy, we solve one (no Salty vs LH'd starters). If Pedey heats up vs RHPs, which is certainly possible, we'd solve a second one. 

    I doubt Drew will ever consistently hit lefties above .700, and I doubt Victorino will consistently hit righties above .700 again. These may not be serious weaknesses, or they may be weaknesses that can be overcome, but they are the at least some of our weakest areas.

     

    • Cano has a .919/.758 L/R split.
    • Adam Jones has a .854/.741
    • Longoria has a .774/.974.

    These guys listed aren't below .700 or even .600 like some of our guys, but I'm sure there are some out there.

    In addition, you're picking our #8 hitter, with a .600 against lefties (.613 actually).  So far, that is 95 ABs.  Since the average OPS for a SS is .669, the difference between .669 and .613, for 3,952 ABs, is less than negligible.  It might improve overall OPS by about a point.

    Again, I am not saying other teams aren't weaker in the same areas. I have said, we have no better options at SS vs LHPs right now. That doesn't mean it's not a weak area.

    And lastly, since you have two weaknesses against lefties and two against righties, it nets out to -0- weaknesses, provided no one pitches with both hands at the same time.  For example, if you penalize Salty and Drew by starting a lefty, Vic and Pedey will have higher OPS.

    I don't see it that way. I see it as several weaknesses that if we want to try and get better, must address sooner or later. There's actually more weak areas than I mentioned, but I only concentrated on offense and I only meantioned the big ones (elephants).

    I went through all the AL contender line-ups on another thread and pointed out their unbalanced areas and weak points. Most have more weak areas than ours, so I am not raising a white flag over this, but I'm not also turning a blind eye to some weak points this team has.

    Here is a fuller list of just areas of concern for 2013:

    1) Our #2 hitter (Victorino) has just a .318 OBP vs RHPs and a .715 OPS.

    2) Our #3 hitter (Pedroia) has a decent OBP vs RHPs (.353) but only a .384 SLG%.

    3) Our catcher (Salty) is being overworked and forced to start vs LHPs (.569 OPS).

         (Lava is up to .670 vs LHPs and Ross is at .728.)

    4) Our SS has a .613 OPS vs LHPs and Holt (.533) is no Iggy (.842) vs LHPs.

    5) Our 3Bmen are weak: (small samples)

          vs RHPs Holt .552 OPS & Snyder 0 for 13/ vs LHPs Snyder .964

    6) Gomes was signed to kill lefties. He's at .748 with a .207 BA.

    7) Our clean-up hitter (Ortiz) is struggling against lefties again (.311 OBP/.746 OPS)

    8) Our leadoff hitter (Ellsbury) has a .304 OBP vs LHPs and a .759 OPS.

    9) Nava should only play vs RHPs, but has 97 PAs vs lefties (.606 OPS)

    10) Out 5 slot hitter has a .232 BA and .745 OPS.

    To be fair, we have many more strengths, including these:

    1) Our weakest batting slot (9th) has a relaively high .688 OPS. We have 7 of our 9 slots with an OPS above .744 and 6 above .760. We are more balanced in our line-up than any other AL contender.

    2) We are better and more balanced that AL contenders Home (.811) and Away (.758). We are the only team that averages over 5 runs scored Home (5.03) and Away (5.11).

    3) Although we hit lefties(.720)  much worse than righties (.817), we close that gap later in games against a lefty starter. (.758 to .797). Our runs scored in games vs LH'd starters is still a decent 4.41, but still almost a full run less than RH'd starters (5.38).

    4) Our weakest hitting position has clearly been 3B (.651), but our next weakest has a decent OPS or .747. Most teams have 2-3+ positions below .700.

    5) Our top 4 slots all have an OBP above .343 and 3 are above .360.

    6) Our 6th and 7th slots combine for an OPS of .800.

    7) Our OPS with men on base (.782) is close to our overall OPS (.784).

    8) Our OBP when leading off an inning is .359.

    9) Our PH'ers have a 1.048 OPS with 6 HRs is just 52 ABs, which prorates to about 75 HRs per 650 ABs.

    10) After slumping a bit (facing some tough pitchers), our offense has picked it up a bit with an .852 OPS the last 7 games (last night helped). We are at .785 the last 14 games- the same as the season OPS.

     

     




     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: The Elephants in the Room

    Napoli not in tonight's line-up vs the righty Cosart.

    Carp at 1B/Gomes in LF

    Sox4ever

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from craze4sox. Show craze4sox's posts

    Re: The Elephants in the Room

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    All the recent talk seems to be pointed at Napoli and his Ks. Looking at almost any sample size, 2013 season, last 28 days, or last 14 days, one can see that Napoli is near the the lead in almost every category:

    2013 Season: 2nd in OPS (3rd if you count Carp with just 172 PAs)

         2nd in OPS (3rd if you count Carp with 172 PAs)

         5th in OBP

        2nd in SLG%

        2nd in HRs

        1st in 2Bs

        2nd in XBHs (2 behind Papi)

        3rd in RBI (2 behind Pedey who has 36 more PAs with M.O.B & 14 more w/RISP)

    Last 28 days: 3rd in OPS

     

    Last 14 days: 5th in OPS

     

    Napoli should not be a 5 hitter, especially vs RHPs, but it's not his fault the team was pretty much forced to put him there due to lack of better options. (A case could have been made for Carp 5th vs RHPs by June this year.)

     

    The "elephants in the room" are barely mentioned, but to me are our clear offensive weaknesses:

    (Not in order of biggest team weakness)

    1) Pedroia vs RHPs (.383 SLG and .735 OPS batting 3rd everyday)

    2) Drew vs LHPs (.252 OBP and .600 OPS - now our everyday SS)

    3) Salty vs LHPs (.574 OPS and nobody trustworthy enough to platoon with him)

    4) Victorino vs RHPs (.314 OBP and .707 OPS firmly entrenched in the 2 slot FT)

    (Nava vs LHPs and Gomes vs RHPs are not a big concerns, since they can be platooned.)

    4 elephants: not many solutions in the system.

     

    Some possible suggestions that might help (feel free to pitch in with other ideas):

    1) Nava bat 2nd vs RHPs instead of Victorino (or Pedey 2nd with his .352 OBP v RHPs and Nava 3rd).

    2) Lava play vs LHPs despite the danger. Salty needs to rest or he will hit the wall soon.

    3) Holt play SS and Snyder 3B (or Boggy/Middy) vs LHPs despite the hit to Drew's ego, or try and make a waiver-wire deal for a platoon 3Bman or SS who kills lefties.

     

     



    Hey moon, Nap should not play against RH pitching where he has already SO 109 times.  Fortunately we can afford to play him because of our overall success with righties.  As far as Holt goes I'm not sure why people like him around so much.  He doesn't hit lefties or righties that well so far so I would bring up Bogy to back Drew and keep Snyder or Middy at 3B where they have hit lefties well at AAA.

     

    Holt is a decent utility guy but Snyder hits better against lefties and Bogy should get a shot to back up Drew at SS.  It may come down to keeping Holt around for his versatility and experience but I don't necessarily agree.

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: The Elephants in the Room

    In response to craze4sox's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    All the recent talk seems to be pointed at Napoli and his Ks. Looking at almost any sample size, 2013 season, last 28 days, or last 14 days, one can see that Napoli is near the the lead in almost every category:

    2013 Season: 2nd in OPS (3rd if you count Carp with just 172 PAs)

         2nd in OPS (3rd if you count Carp with 172 PAs)

         5th in OBP

        2nd in SLG%

        2nd in HRs

        1st in 2Bs

        2nd in XBHs (2 behind Papi)

        3rd in RBI (2 behind Pedey who has 36 more PAs with M.O.B & 14 more w/RISP)

    Last 28 days: 3rd in OPS

     

    Last 14 days: 5th in OPS

     

    Napoli should not be a 5 hitter, especially vs RHPs, but it's not his fault the team was pretty much forced to put him there due to lack of better options. (A case could have been made for Carp 5th vs RHPs by June this year.)

     

    The "elephants in the room" are barely mentioned, but to me are our clear offensive weaknesses:

    (Not in order of biggest team weakness)

    1) Pedroia vs RHPs (.383 SLG and .735 OPS batting 3rd everyday)

    2) Drew vs LHPs (.252 OBP and .600 OPS - now our everyday SS)

    3) Salty vs LHPs (.574 OPS and nobody trustworthy enough to platoon with him)

    4) Victorino vs RHPs (.314 OBP and .707 OPS firmly entrenched in the 2 slot FT)

    (Nava vs LHPs and Gomes vs RHPs are not a big concerns, since they can be platooned.)

    4 elephants: not many solutions in the system.

     

    Some possible suggestions that might help (feel free to pitch in with other ideas):

    1) Nava bat 2nd vs RHPs instead of Victorino (or Pedey 2nd with his .352 OBP v RHPs and Nava 3rd).

    2) Lava play vs LHPs despite the danger. Salty needs to rest or he will hit the wall soon.

    3) Holt play SS and Snyder 3B (or Boggy/Middy) vs LHPs despite the hit to Drew's ego, or try and make a waiver-wire deal for a platoon 3Bman or SS who kills lefties.

     

     



    Hey moon, Nap should not play against RH pitching where he has already SO 109 times.  Fortunately we can afford to play him because of our overall success with righties.  As far as Holt goes I'm not sure why people like him around so much.  He doesn't hit lefties or righties that well so far so I would bring up Bogy to back Drew and keep Snyder or Middy at 3B where they have hit lefties well at AAA.

     

    Holt is a decent utility guy but Snyder hits better against lefties and Bogy should get a shot to back up Drew at SS.  It may come down to keeping Holt around for his versatility and experience but I don't necessarily agree.




    If Bogey is here to back up Drew then he shouldnt come up til september because he will be riding the pine most of the time. If hes here to play 3b, then I understand a call up now.

     
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  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: The Elephants in the Room

    Hey moon, Nap should not play against RH pitching where he has already SO 109 times.  Fortunately we can afford to play him because of our overall success with righties. 

    On the line-up thread, I have Napoli benched vs RHPs.

    Like I said many times, I don't care about the Ks as long as the OBP or OPS is high enough, but Napoli's struggling now.

    (I could use the argument that when he's hot he hits RHPs, but I won't go there.)

     

    As far as Holt goes I'm not sure why people like him around so much.  He doesn't hit lefties or righties that well so far so I would bring up Bogy to back Drew and keep Snyder or Middy at 3B where they have hit lefties well at AAA.

    I'm fine with bringing Boggy up, but I trust Ben on getting that timing right. The kid is very young.

     

    Holt is a decent utility guy but Snyder hits better against lefties and Bogy should get a shot to back up Drew at SS.  It may come down to keeping Holt around for his versatility and experience but I don't necessarily agree.

    Boggy can play SS or 3B, so I think we could swap Boggy for Holt, but maybe give Pedey a day of rest first.

     




    If Bogey is here to back up Drew then he shouldnt come up til september because he will be riding the pine most of the time. If hes here to play 3b, then I understand a call up now.

    Sox4ever

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: The Elephants in the Room

    I know we disagree on Drew Moon, but Im sorry and dont care what anyone says. You DONT sit a player with these overall numbers. Like I said, MAYBE against a tough LHP that hes always had issues with and only when hes not on one of his hitting streaks, like right now. So basically, Im saying hes a player you play 150 games a year if hes not injured.

    Drew has a 2.0WAR (baseball reference) which gives him a value of 10.1M...So far hes been worth every penny. the MLB SS OPS average is.669 (or somewhere close) Drew is 100PTS higher at a premium position with only 3 errors. Here is where he ranks amongst ALL MLB SS...

     

     

    (note: I'm not counting Jhonny Peralta because of his PED suspension)

    Includes all SS with at least 80 games played in 2013.

    Drew has the highest OPS of every AL SS, Hes 5th in all MLB in OPS

    Drew is 1st in SLG in the AL and 5th in MLB

    2nd in OBP in AL, 6th in all MLB

    He is 2nd in all MLB with a .991FLD% (1Pt behind Tulo), 1st in AL

    Tied with Tulo at #1 with 3 errors

    Hes one of the BEST MLB SS in the game today. Sorry, but even if this guys struggles against a couple tough LHP, hes still very valuable on defense and unlike Iggy, you know Drew will end up as one of the top hitting SS in MLB. This isnt an elephant.

     

     

     

     
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  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from SpacemanEephus. Show SpacemanEephus's posts

    Re: The Elephants in the Room

    In response to Bill-806's comment:

    "LET ME BE CLEAR", perhaps the "chickens are coming home to roost"  !!!!!



    Are those the Best Record in the Majors chickens?

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: The Elephants in the Room

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

     

    I know we disagree on Drew Moon, but Im sorry and dont care what anyone says. You DONT sit a player with these overall numbers. Like I said, MAYBE against a tough LHP that hes always had issues with and only when hes not on one of his hitting streaks, like right now. So basically, Im saying hes a player you play 150 games a year if hes not injured.

    Drew has a 2.0WAR (baseball reference) which gives him a value of 10.1M...So far hes been worth every penny. the MLB SS OPS average is.669 (or somewhere close) Drew is 100PTS higher at a premium position with only 3 errors. Here is where he ranks amongst ALL MLB SS...

     

     

    (note: I'm not counting Jhonny Peralta because of his PED suspension)

    Includes all SS with at least 80 games played in 2013.

    Drew has the highest OPS of every AL SS, Hes 5th in all MLB in OPS

    Drew is 1st in SLG in the AL and 5th in MLB

    2nd in OBP in AL, 6th in all MLB

    He is 2nd in all MLB with a .991FLD% (1Pt behind Tulo), 1st in AL

    Tied with Tulo at #1 with 3 errors

    Hes one of the BEST MLB SS in the game today. Sorry, but even if this guys struggles against a couple tough LHP, hes still very valuable on defense and unlike Iggy, you know Drew will end up as one of the top hitting SS in MLB. This isnt an elephant.

     

     

     

     



    Minimize it all you want, but you do not put together a career .691 OPS vs LHPs and a .620 OPS vs LHPs over the last 3 years combined by just "struggling against a couple tough LHPs". There are 52 SS in MLB with over 150 PAs vs LHPs since 2011, Drew places 43rd. He's 29th out of 33 with over 250 PAs.

     

    Normally, I try to use multiple periods of sample sizes to try and project what a player might do going forward. I'd simply take a player like Drew's current numbers and average it with his recent 2-3 year numbers, and then maybe average that with his career numbers. I cut Drew some slack when I made my pre-season projections, because I know he was hurt, but I still have to think his future numbers are more likely to be somewhere around the average of the sample sizes with maybe some more weight being added to Drew's most recent numbers. That might put him somewhere around .750 or the .779 he's at now, or maybe as high as .800. Those are excellent numbers for a SS.

    I have never had issues with Drew's offense, except vs LHPs. I admit that a .691 OPS (Drew's career OPS vs LHPs) is not an "elephant", especially for a SS, but .626 is at least a "Hippo". 

    I am very excited about Drew's play of late. He is really coming on strong. I have said countless times over the past couple months that he is fielding better than I expected, however, I have to point out something about your methodology...

    1) You almost totally discount Drew's numbers from 2011 and 2012, because he was injured or recovering from injury, and yet, Drew has been injured this year and playing while recovering from injury as well, and these numbers all are supposed to count as being the "real Drew". 

    2) You have chosen the highest point in a Drew season for over 3 years to cite stats as if they are who Drew is and may continue to be. I am not doubting that this can be what Drew continues to be. He has put up a couple of .800+ OPS seasons ('08 & '10).

    3) The last time Drew played healthy was the 2011 season. He had a .713 OPS. You have said that year should not count, because "we do not knwo what he would have done the rest of that year," well then, couldn't we then say this year's numbers shoudln't count using your methodology. Afterall, he had 354 PAs until he got hurt in 2011, and he has 333 this year.

    4) Drew struggles vs most LHPs, not a couple, and some of them might not be labelled "tough":

    PA  pitcher  OPS

    36 J Sanchez  .492

    35 B Zito  .797

    33 J Francis .740

    22 de la Rosa .558

    20 Beimel .1.034

    20 Gorzelanny .810

    20 T Lilly  1.009

    19 Affeldt  .686

    19 Kershaw .217

    17 Bumgarner .551

    17 Z Duke .647

    17 C Hamels .620

    16 R Wolf  .821

    15 J Thatcher .536

    13 H-C Kuo  .397

    13 C Lee  .410

    13 S Marshall .154

    13 W Rodriguez .615

    12 W LeBlanc 2.083

    12 J Moyer .500

    12 C Richard .348

    12 G Rusch .750

     

    I see him struggling against about 2/3rds of lefties he faces.

    As I said, there is nobody on the 25 man roster right now, I'd play over Drew vs LHPs, even if he wasn't in a hot streak, but if you have a guy that is somewhere between a .620 OPS vs LHPs (last 3 years) and a .691 OPS (career) and you play him nearly every game vs LHPs, yes he will have some hot streaks, but to end up with a .620-.690 OPS, he's going to have to balance that with some very bad streaks or long somewhat bad streaks. 

    Again, I am not saying "sit him vs LHPs". I am saying he struggles against them.

     

    Gotta say, I loved the game winner last night. I saw it live. Big hit for this team. It keeps us thinking we are never out of it. Drew is playing great. He looks healthy. He's making all the plays hit to him on D. He is even putting up good UZR/150 numbers in a short sample size. I did not like the signing, but right now, it looks like a good deal. If he keeps this up: a great deal.

     

     

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: The Elephants in the Room

    In response to darrylfries' comment:

    Drew's offence won a lot more games for us this year Iggys defence.

    Setting him down makes no sence at this time

    Iggy lovers need to start rooting for the Tigers.



    Who is saying "setting him down"?

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from zbellino. Show zbellino's posts

    Re: The Elephants in the Room

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    Napoli not in tonight's line-up vs the righty Cosart.

    Carp at 1B/Gomes in LF

    Sox4ever



    Napoli needed a day off to get his head straight. 

    The nitpicking about platoon hitting is something else. 

    I've never been the person to think micromanaging a lineup is a good thing. Here are career (read large samples) .OPS splits righty/lefty for the lineup. 

    Els         .812/.742

    Victorino .731/.875

    Pedroia   .811/.859

    Ortiz       .981/.819

    Napoli     .838/.885

    Nava       .806/.614 (the latter in just 195 ABs)

    Drew      .790/.691

    Salty      .789/.588

    -------------

    Gomes     .737/.848

    Carp        .778/.796 (the later in just 152 ABs)

    Yes, Pedroia and Napoli are off a bit from their usual marks, but over the largest sample ... you don't move them around the order at all. I certainly want Victorino's base-running up top. Drew could possibly be sat agaisnt lefties, but in reality, he is in there for defense that none of the other guys are going to be able to bring.

    I do agree, Salty is overworked, but most of that has to do with roster health, and available depth at Catcher, which is pretty weak. 

    It's too bad, I was hoping they could use Napoli against occaisonal lefties at C when they brought him in, but I guess he is straight 1st base. 

    But none of these things are giving me chest pains. 

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: The Elephants in the Room

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

     

    I know we disagree on Drew Moon, but Im sorry and dont care what anyone says. You DONT sit a player with these overall numbers. Like I said, MAYBE against a tough LHP that hes always had issues with and only when hes not on one of his hitting streaks, like right now. So basically, Im saying hes a player you play 150 games a year if hes not injured.

    Drew has a 2.0WAR (baseball reference) which gives him a value of 10.1M...So far hes been worth every penny. the MLB SS OPS average is.669 (or somewhere close) Drew is 100PTS higher at a premium position with only 3 errors. Here is where he ranks amongst ALL MLB SS...

     

     

    (note: I'm not counting Jhonny Peralta because of his PED suspension)

    Includes all SS with at least 80 games played in 2013.

    Drew has the highest OPS of every AL SS, Hes 5th in all MLB in OPS

    Drew is 1st in SLG in the AL and 5th in MLB

    2nd in OBP in AL, 6th in all MLB

    He is 2nd in all MLB with a .991FLD% (1Pt behind Tulo), 1st in AL

    Tied with Tulo at #1 with 3 errors

    Hes one of the BEST MLB SS in the game today. Sorry, but even if this guys struggles against a couple tough LHP, hes still very valuable on defense and unlike Iggy, you know Drew will end up as one of the top hitting SS in MLB. This isnt an elephant.

     

     

     

     



    Minimize it all you want, but you do not put together a career .691 OPS vs LHPs and a .620 OPS vs LHPs over the last 3 years combined by just "struggling against a couple tough LHPs". There are 52 SS in MLB with over 150 PAs vs LHPs since 2011, Drew places 43rd. He's 29th out of 33 with over 250 PAs.

    How many of those SS are LHH?

     

    Normally, I try to use multiple periods of sample sizes to try and project what a player might do going forward. I'd simply take a player like Drew's current numbers and average it with his recent 2-3 year numbers, and then maybe average that with his career numbers. I cut Drew some slack when I made my pre-season projections, because I know he was hurt, but I still have to think his future numbers are more likely to be somewhere around the average of the sample sizes with maybe some more weight being added to Drew's most recent numbers. That might put him somewhere around .750 or the .779 he's at now, or maybe as high as .800. Those are excellent numbers for a SS.

    agree

    I have never had issues with Drew's offense, except vs LHPs. I admit that a .691 OPS (Drew's career OPS vs LHPs) is not an "elephant", especially for a SS, but .626 is at least a "Hippo". 

    Ok, fair enough

    I am very excited about Drew's play of late. He is really coming on strong. I have said countless times over the past couple months that he is fielding better than I expected, however, I have to point out something about your methodology...

    1) You almost totally discount Drew's numbers from 2011 and 2012, because he was injured or recovering from injury, and yet, Drew has been injured this year and playing while recovering from injury as well, and these numbers all are supposed to count as being the "real Drew". 

    Theres no comparing a 1yr absence because of a broken ankle that required pins, to a hammy where he was out 2 weeks.

    2) You have chosen the highest point in a Drew season for over 3 years to cite stats as if they are who Drew is and may continue to be. I am not doubting that this can be what Drew continues to be. He has put up a couple of .800+ OPS seasons ('08 & '10).

    agree, its not over yet. We will see come october 1st

    3) The last time Drew played healthy was the 2011 season. He had a .713 OPS. You have said that year should not count, because "we do not knwo what he would have done the rest of that year," well then, couldn't we then say this year's numbers shoudln't count using your methodology. Afterall, he had 354 PAs until he got hurt in 2011, and he has 333 this year.

    see above response. Josh reddick had a great 3-4 months and hes been terrible ever since. papi has had a couple years starting out bad the 1st 2-3 months and still finished with a 900OPS and countless others. The truth is Neither of us know if he would have ended up with. A 700OPS or an 800 one like he had done the previous years? Since his track record pointed to 800 and he was right in his prime age years, one would think he had a better chance to be closer to 800 than 700. But regardless its an incomplete year.

    4) Drew struggles vs most LHPs, not a couple, and some of them might not be labelled "tough":

    PA  pitcher  OPS

    36 J Sanchez  .492

    35 B Zito  .797

    33 J Francis .740

    22 de la Rosa .558

    20 Beimel .1.034

    20 Gorzelanny .810

    20 T Lilly  1.009

    19 Affeldt  .686

    19 Kershaw .217

    17 Bumgarner .551

    17 Z Duke .647

    17 C Hamels .620

    16 R Wolf  .821

    15 J Thatcher .536

    13 H-C Kuo  .397

    13 C Lee  .410

    13 S Marshall .154

    13 W Rodriguez .615

    12 W LeBlanc 2.083

    12 J Moyer .500

    12 C Richard .348

    12 G Rusch .750


     

    I see him struggling against about 2/3rds of lefties he faces.

    As I said, there is nobody on the 25 man roster right now, I'd play over Drew vs LHPs, even if he wasn't in a hot streak, but if you have a guy that is somewhere between a .620 OPS vs LHPs (last 3 years) and a .691 OPS (career) and you play him nearly every game vs LHPs, yes he will have some hot streaks, but to end up with a .620-.690 OPS, he's going to have to balance that with some very bad streaks or long somewhat bad streaks. 

    Again, I am not saying "sit him vs LHPs". I am saying he struggles against them.

    Ok, Thats fair and I wouldnt/cant argue that he struggles more with LHP. I was under the impression you wanted to play him only 120-130 times a year and not against LHP. Thats where I took exception.

     

    Gotta say, I loved the game winner last night. I saw it live. Big hit for this team. It keeps us thinking we are never out of it. Drew is playing great. He looks healthy. He's making all the plays hit to him on D. He is even putting up good UZR/150 numbers in a short sample size. I did not like the signing, but right now, it looks like a good deal. If he keeps this up: a great deal.

    AGREE!!!

    I think we cleared up a couple misunderstanding in our back and forth. Thanks again Moon. Hope you enjoyed your time in Houston watching the Sox.

     

     

     




     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: The Elephants in the Room

    Minimize it all you want, but you do not put together a career .691 OPS vs LHPs and a .620 OPS vs LHPs over the last 3 years combined by just "struggling against a couple tough LHPs". There are 52 SS in MLB with over 150 PAs vs LHPs since 2011, Drew places 43rd. He's 29th out of 33 with over 250 PAs.

    How many of those SS are LHH?

    Hardly any, so the chances are almost all MLB SSs hits LHPs better than RHPs. It is the the norm.  That's why it makes it so frustrating that we have no option on our team better than .620 to .690 vs LHPs. 

    I get your point. Having Drew play everyday is better than most MLB SSs playing everyday. Chances are they struggle vs RHPs- the more common pitcher in MLB. My point is not contrary to yours. All I a saying is that Drew is weak vs LHPs. He is weak as compared to other MLB SSs, and it is an "elephant", because nobody wants to talk about it or admit that it is a problem.

    Too many people are assuming that because I am calling it a problem, I am implying he should be benched vs LHPs. That was my position when we had Iggy to bat vs LHPs and hopes that Middy was going to rebound, but neither is an option right now. Even if we called up Boggy, I would not bench Drew vs LHPs; I'd bench Snyder at 3B.

     

    Normally, I try to use multiple periods of sample sizes to try and project what a player might do going forward. I'd simply take a player like Drew's current numbers and average it with his recent 2-3 year numbers, and then maybe average that with his career numbers. I cut Drew some slack when I made my pre-season projections, because I know he was hurt, but I still have to think his future numbers are more likely to be somewhere around the average of the sample sizes with maybe some more weight being added to Drew's most recent numbers. That might put him somewhere around .750 or the .779 he's at now, or maybe as high as .800. Those are excellent numbers for a SS.

    agree

    I have never had issues with Drew's offense, except vs LHPs. I admit that a .691 OPS (Drew's career OPS vs LHPs) is not an "elephant", especially for a SS, but .626 is at least a "Hippo". 

    Ok, fair enough

    I am very excited about Drew's play of late. He is really coming on strong. I have said countless times over the past couple months that he is fielding better than I expected, however, I have to point out something about your methodology...

    1) You almost totally discount Drew's numbers from 2011 and 2012, because he was injured or recovering from injury, and yet, Drew has been injured this year and playing while recovering from injury as well, and these numbers all are supposed to count as being the "real Drew". 

    Theres no comparing a 1yr absence because of a broken ankle that required pins, to a hammy where he was out 2 weeks.

    True enough- good point. However, Drew was not injured for the 354 PAs in 2011. He was injured after those PAs.  He was more healthy than he was this year with the hammy and concussion issues.

     

    2) You have chosen the highest point in a Drew season for over 3 years to cite stats as if they are who Drew is and may continue to be. I am not doubting that this can be what Drew continues to be. He has put up a couple of .800+ OPS seasons ('08 & '10).

    agree, its not over yet. We will see come october 1st

    I have a feeling he might end up over .800.

     

    3) The last time Drew played healthy was the 2011 season. He had a .713 OPS. You have said that year should not count, because "we do not knwo what he would have done the rest of that year," well then, couldn't we then say this year's numbers shoudln't count using your methodology. Afterall, he had 354 PAs until he got hurt in 2011, and he has 333 this year.

    see above response. Josh reddick had a great 3-4 months and hes been terrible ever since. papi has had a couple years starting out bad the 1st 2-3 months and still finished with a 900OPS and countless others. The truth is Neither of us know if he would have ended up with. A 700OPS or an 800 one like he had done the previous years? Since his track record pointed to 800 and he was right in his prime age years, one would think he had a better chance to be closer to 800 than 700. But regardless its an incomplete year.

    Yes, but you are making definitive judgements based on this incomplete year with less PAs. That was my point. When myself and others pointed out 2011, you acted like we should all but totally discount it, but now we are being asked to look at this year as the real Drew.

    I still think he will end up somewhere inbtween, like most players his age do, but he certainly has the potential to have a couple more seasons like 2008 and 2010. My point is that he could also have a season like 2011 prjected to a full year or 2007 or 2009 or 2012-2013 combined.

     

    4) Drew struggles vs most LHPs, not a couple, and some of them might not be labelled "tough":

    PA  pitcher  OPS

    36 J Sanchez  .492

    35 B Zito  .797

    33 J Francis .740

    22 de la Rosa .558

    20 Beimel .1.034

    20 Gorzelanny .810

    20 T Lilly  1.009

    19 Affeldt  .686

    19 Kershaw .217

    17 Bumgarner .551

    17 Z Duke .647

    17 C Hamels .620

    16 R Wolf  .821

    15 J Thatcher .536

    13 H-C Kuo  .397

    13 C Lee  .410

    13 S Marshall .154

    13 W Rodriguez .615

    12 W LeBlanc 2.083

    12 J Moyer .500

    12 C Richard .348

    12 G Rusch .750


     

    I see him struggling against about 2/3rds of lefties he faces.

    As I said, there is nobody on the 25 man roster right now, I'd play over Drew vs LHPs, even if he wasn't in a hot streak, but if you have a guy that is somewhere between a .620 OPS vs LHPs (last 3 years) and a .691 OPS (career) and you play him nearly every game vs LHPs, yes he will have some hot streaks, but to end up with a .620-.690 OPS, he's going to have to balance that with some very bad streaks or long somewhat bad streaks. 

    Again, I am not saying "sit him vs LHPs". I am saying he struggles against them.

    Ok, Thats fair and I wouldnt/cant argue that he struggles more with LHP. I was under the impression you wanted to play him only 120-130 times a year and not against LHP. Thats where I took exception. 

    Ideally, if we had a SS who hit LHPs at about .750 or more and was about equal to Drew as a fielder, I'd  not play Drew, except against lefties he has proven he can hit (most are NL West pitchers) or against ones that the other SS struglles against, but most batter vs pitcher sample sizes are too small to count for much when trying to determin future performance.

    One main reason I was for playing Iggy over Drew vs LHPs was Iggy's defense and not so much for his probable .650+ OPS vs LHPs. We don't have an Iggy-type anymore. Out of 63 MLB SSs with over 100 PAs vs LHPs since 2011, 18 have an OPS over .750. Another 15 are between .700 and .750, but I'm not sure how many would be a big step down on defense, so would not be worth a platoon or partial platoon.

    My guess is that if we had a decent fielding SS who hit LHPs at .750 or above, I'd sit Drew for maybe 40-45 of the 55 games we face a lefty starter. That would mean Drew might start in about 120 games, but if we had a SS who fielded well but hit only .700-.725, I might just sit Drew for 20-25 games (maybe just 15-20 more than normal rest), so he'd play about 140 games.

    Maybe we are not so far apart as we seem.

     

    Gotta say, I loved the game winner last night. I saw it live. Big hit for this team. It keeps us thinking we are never out of it. Drew is playing great. He looks healthy. He's making all the plays hit to him on D. He is even putting up good UZR/150 numbers in a short sample size. I did not like the signing, but right now, it looks like a good deal. If he keeps this up: a great deal.

    AGREE!!!

    I think we cleared up a couple misunderstanding in our back and forth. Thanks again Moon. Hope you enjoyed your time in Houston watching the Sox.

    I loved the 3 games I saw in Houston. I live in Sugar Land (home of Roger Clemens) and am just about 45 minutes from the stadium. 

    Drew looks smooth on defense. It looks effortless. I was wrong about his defense. I think I projected about .750 for his OPS, so he may top that by a fair margin. I'm sad to see Iggy go, especially watching our 3Bmen struggle, but Peavy will be a big help and we got to keep Boggy. Cecchini, JBJ and Owens.

     

    Sox4ever

     
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