Minimize it all you want, but you do not put together a career .691 OPS vs LHPs and a .620 OPS vs LHPs over the last 3 years combined by just "struggling against a couple tough LHPs". There are 52 SS in MLB with over 150 PAs vs LHPs since 2011, Drew places 43rd. He's 29th out of 33 with over 250 PAs.
How many of those SS are LHH?
Hardly any, so the chances are almost all MLB SSs hits LHPs better than RHPs. It is the the norm. That's why it makes it so frustrating that we have no option on our team better than .620 to .690 vs LHPs.
I get your point. Having Drew play everyday is better than most MLB SSs playing everyday. Chances are they struggle vs RHPs- the more common pitcher in MLB. My point is not contrary to yours. All I a saying is that Drew is weak vs LHPs. He is weak as compared to other MLB SSs, and it is an "elephant", because nobody wants to talk about it or admit that it is a problem.
Too many people are assuming that because I am calling it a problem, I am implying he should be benched vs LHPs. That was my position when we had Iggy to bat vs LHPs and hopes that Middy was going to rebound, but neither is an option right now. Even if we called up Boggy, I would not bench Drew vs LHPs; I'd bench Snyder at 3B.
Normally, I try to use multiple periods of sample sizes to try and project what a player might do going forward. I'd simply take a player like Drew's current numbers and average it with his recent 2-3 year numbers, and then maybe average that with his career numbers. I cut Drew some slack when I made my pre-season projections, because I know he was hurt, but I still have to think his future numbers are more likely to be somewhere around the average of the sample sizes with maybe some more weight being added to Drew's most recent numbers. That might put him somewhere around .750 or the .779 he's at now, or maybe as high as .800. Those are excellent numbers for a SS.
I have never had issues with Drew's offense, except vs LHPs. I admit that a .691 OPS (Drew's career OPS vs LHPs) is not an "elephant", especially for a SS, but .626 is at least a "Hippo".
Ok, fair enough
I am very excited about Drew's play of late. He is really coming on strong. I have said countless times over the past couple months that he is fielding better than I expected, however, I have to point out something about your methodology...
1) You almost totally discount Drew's numbers from 2011 and 2012, because he was injured or recovering from injury, and yet, Drew has been injured this year and playing while recovering from injury as well, and these numbers all are supposed to count as being the "real Drew".
Theres no comparing a 1yr absence because of a broken ankle that required pins, to a hammy where he was out 2 weeks.
True enough- good point. However, Drew was not injured for the 354 PAs in 2011. He was injured after those PAs. He was more healthy than he was this year with the hammy and concussion issues.
2) You have chosen the highest point in a Drew season for over 3 years to cite stats as if they are who Drew is and may continue to be. I am not doubting that this can be what Drew continues to be. He has put up a couple of .800+ OPS seasons ('08 & '10).
agree, its not over yet. We will see come october 1st
I have a feeling he might end up over .800.
3) The last time Drew played healthy was the 2011 season. He had a .713 OPS. You have said that year should not count, because "we do not knwo what he would have done the rest of that year," well then, couldn't we then say this year's numbers shoudln't count using your methodology. Afterall, he had 354 PAs until he got hurt in 2011, and he has 333 this year.
see above response. Josh reddick had a great 3-4 months and hes been terrible ever since. papi has had a couple years starting out bad the 1st 2-3 months and still finished with a 900OPS and countless others. The truth is Neither of us know if he would have ended up with. A 700OPS or an 800 one like he had done the previous years? Since his track record pointed to 800 and he was right in his prime age years, one would think he had a better chance to be closer to 800 than 700. But regardless its an incomplete year.
Yes, but you are making definitive judgements based on this incomplete year with less PAs. That was my point. When myself and others pointed out 2011, you acted like we should all but totally discount it, but now we are being asked to look at this year as the real Drew.
I still think he will end up somewhere inbtween, like most players his age do, but he certainly has the potential to have a couple more seasons like 2008 and 2010. My point is that he could also have a season like 2011 prjected to a full year or 2007 or 2009 or 2012-2013 combined.
4) Drew struggles vs most LHPs, not a couple, and some of them might not be labelled "tough":
PA pitcher OPS
36 J Sanchez .492
35 B Zito .797
33 J Francis .740
22 de la Rosa .558
20 Beimel .1.034
20 Gorzelanny .810
20 T Lilly 1.009
19 Affeldt .686
19 Kershaw .217
17 Bumgarner .551
17 Z Duke .647
17 C Hamels .620
16 R Wolf .821
15 J Thatcher .536
13 H-C Kuo .397
13 C Lee .410
13 S Marshall .154
13 W Rodriguez .615
12 W LeBlanc 2.083
12 J Moyer .500
12 C Richard .348
12 G Rusch .750
I see him struggling against about 2/3rds of lefties he faces.
As I said, there is nobody on the 25 man roster right now, I'd play over Drew vs LHPs, even if he wasn't in a hot streak, but if you have a guy that is somewhere between a .620 OPS vs LHPs (last 3 years) and a .691 OPS (career) and you play him nearly every game vs LHPs, yes he will have some hot streaks, but to end up with a .620-.690 OPS, he's going to have to balance that with some very bad streaks or long somewhat bad streaks.
Again, I am not saying "sit him vs LHPs". I am saying he struggles against them.
Ok, Thats fair and I wouldnt/cant argue that he struggles more with LHP. I was under the impression you wanted to play him only 120-130 times a year and not against LHP. Thats where I took exception.
Ideally, if we had a SS who hit LHPs at about .750 or more and was about equal to Drew as a fielder, I'd not play Drew, except against lefties he has proven he can hit (most are NL West pitchers) or against ones that the other SS struglles against, but most batter vs pitcher sample sizes are too small to count for much when trying to determin future performance.
One main reason I was for playing Iggy over Drew vs LHPs was Iggy's defense and not so much for his probable .650+ OPS vs LHPs. We don't have an Iggy-type anymore. Out of 63 MLB SSs with over 100 PAs vs LHPs since 2011, 18 have an OPS over .750. Another 15 are between .700 and .750, but I'm not sure how many would be a big step down on defense, so would not be worth a platoon or partial platoon.
My guess is that if we had a decent fielding SS who hit LHPs at .750 or above, I'd sit Drew for maybe 40-45 of the 55 games we face a lefty starter. That would mean Drew might start in about 120 games, but if we had a SS who fielded well but hit only .700-.725, I might just sit Drew for 20-25 games (maybe just 15-20 more than normal rest), so he'd play about 140 games.
Maybe we are not so far apart as we seem.
Gotta say, I loved the game winner last night. I saw it live. Big hit for this team. It keeps us thinking we are never out of it. Drew is playing great. He looks healthy. He's making all the plays hit to him on D. He is even putting up good UZR/150 numbers in a short sample size. I did not like the signing, but right now, it looks like a good deal. If he keeps this up: a great deal.
I think we cleared up a couple misunderstanding in our back and forth. Thanks again Moon. Hope you enjoyed your time in Houston watching the Sox.
I loved the 3 games I saw in Houston. I live in Sugar Land (home of Roger Clemens) and am just about 45 minutes from the stadium.
Drew looks smooth on defense. It looks effortless. I was wrong about his defense. I think I projected about .750 for his OPS, so he may top that by a fair margin. I'm sad to see Iggy go, especially watching our 3Bmen struggle, but Peavy will be a big help and we got to keep Boggy. Cecchini, JBJ and Owens.