The Elephants in the Room

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: The Elephants in the Room

    Pedey has played with a thumb injury all year which Im sure id affecting his power...pedey on roids? seriously?

     
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    Re: The Elephants in the Room

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    Pedey has played with a thumb injury all year which Im sure id affecting his power...pedey on roids? seriously?




    Pedroia has played in 113 of the team's 114 games this year. Thats a ridiculous pace. He needs some rest from time to time, like all players do. I am sure thats affecting his performance.

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from proftom2. Show proftom2's posts

    Re: The Elephants in the Room

    Win two loose one the rest of the season and call it good.  Naps gets hot quick and cools off fast and the end of the season his numbers are alwasu there. 

     
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    Re: The Elephants in the Room

    southpaw, every player out there is up for debate at this point. Some probably took it for rehab, others to increase power, strength, velocity, etc.., and others are taking it right now as we speak. The bottom line is we don't know, and I'm tired of putting these guys on pedestals. Nomar clearly took them, no doubt in my mind he did. And it has nothing to do with the hustle or the way they play the game, it's just that the PEDs are out there, were out there, and the system of testing is flawed and the science has gotten ahead of the "testing" so you don't know if there are ways to disguise it in tests or even if guys are cheating or using different samples (bought) for their tests. 

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: The Elephants in the Room

    In response to dannycater's comment:

     

    southpaw, every player out there is up for debate at this point. Some probably took it for rehab, others to increase power, strength, velocity, etc.., and others are taking it right now as we speak. The bottom line is we don't know, and I'm tired of putting these guys on pedestals. Nomar clearly took them, no doubt in my mind he did. And it has nothing to do with the hustle or the way they play the game, it's just that the PEDs are out there, were out there, and the system of testing is flawed and the science has gotten ahead of the "testing" so you don't know if there are ways to disguise it in tests or even if guys are cheating or using different samples (bought) for their tests. 

     




    While I agree that players are now guilty before proven innocent in regards to PED's, I think there should be more evidence before making statements possibly accusing a player of doing it.

     

    Just because Pedey only has 8HR and the SLG is down doesnt automatically make him a suspect. Sorry, but we can just start accusing everyone without better evidence than this.

    ALL of his numbers are in line with his career averages. There are no spikes in performance. Hes been playing with an injured thumb which will absolutely affect his power some. Although with 8HR and 2 months to go he could still be close to his average yearly totals. Plus if pedey was taken them, then I would expect that thumb to be healed and his SLG to be higher than it is. The fact that it is lower says hes not fully recovered from that thum injury.

     

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: The Elephants in the Room

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

    It proves my theory WHEN HES SWINGING A HOT BAT. I think Ive been very clear about that.
    My very simple arguement with you is that I dont platoon Drew when hes hot. PERIOD.

    But, you would when he's not hot? When do you determine he is hot or not? By the time you figure it out, he may get cold or hot again and reverse trends. 

    I said SOME tough LHP he has trouble with, not a full platoon. I also said Drew is the kind of player that plays all the time. Your talking about most LHP and Im only talking a couple. Thanks, but Ive figured it out already and have been trying to explain it to you.

    Figured what out? That when someone is hot he has better numbers than when he is not hot? Thanks the "explaining" to me. I'd have never figured that out without your help.

     

     

    And yes, you HAVE to look at tiny sample sizes for this arguement because we/I'm talking about hitting streaks, not the whole body of work.

    Drew does eem to be hot right now. I'm not big on 10 game sample sizes, but at this point, our team does not have many other options on the leftsdie of the IF. I'm not high on Holt/Snyder both being in the line-up even vs LHPs instead of Drew, so of course, if Drew seems hot, keep playing him, but ideally, I'd want to sit Drew vs almost all LH'd starters.  In the long run, he will most likely bat near .600-.650 vs them, and to me, his defense is not that great to overcome that weakness. I also do not think not starting him in20-30% of the games is going to throw him out of whack, but I could be wrong.

    You want to play Drew in 120 games a year? No way. Hes a FT player and has had a 750-800 OPS throughout his career, so it makes no sense to have a full platoon vs LHP with this kind of hitter. Hes been 100pts over the league average for an MLB SS even with a few bad games vs.LHP.

    I want to sit Drew against most LHPs, so maybe 130 games, but that was when we had better options. We don't now. Iggy is gone and Boggy is in AAA right now. I have said I do not want Holt and Snyder starting at the same time, but that doesn't change the fact that drew vs LHP is an "elephant". Have I explained that well enough for you?

     

     

    Ive NEVER said not to throw in a RHH for him against some tough LHP he struggles with, but overall, Ill play Drew all the time because hes just that kind of player. You take the good with the bad. Iggy is a low 600OPS hitter regardless of his early season luck. Drews defense is plenty good enough to carry a low 600OPS when hes not swinging a hot bat.

    I disagree. He's no Iggy on defense, and I believe you and others were not for carrying Iggy's .600 OPS because you felt his defense made up for it. (Correct me if I am wrong.)

    The thing is, Iggy is a 600OPS all the time whereas Drew will go on 900OPS streaks and is a 750-800OPS player. Knowing that, you can deal with the down times. Hes no Iggy on defense, but besides a couple highlight reels plays, hes a very solid MLB SS who makes few mistakes.

    Yes, he makes the plays hit to him. I'm glad you have figured out Iggy is a .600 OPS guy "all the time". His career MLB OPS is .686. His minor league OPS was .622 at ages 20-23. Yeah, he is .600. It's a fact.

    Explain away that drew has been under .750 the last 3 years combined. 

    The fact is Drew goes on .900+ OPS hot  streaks vs RHPs and maybe .800+ vs LHPs for multiple short times during his career. But, for much longer streaks, he goes on .700-.850 streaks vs RHPs and under .600 vs LHPs. He's been very consistent vs LHPs over the years. I think he only had one decent season vs lefties.

    He is likely to continue to struggle vs LHPs, and it is not easily predictable which games he might or might not do well in.  You want to sit him vs LHPs he struggle sagainst. How many are there? What sample sizes do you trust? Most of his larger sample sizes are vs NL pitchers, so my guess is you'd start him in all but normal rest games that you'd schedule against tough LH'd pitchers (maybe 5% of the games at most).

    A quick look at Drew's OPS vs LH'd pitchers shows that he has only faced 22 LH'd pitchers more than 12 PAs. Out of those 22, he has an OPS of ...

    5  .800+

    3  .700-.799

    4  .600-.699

    4  .500-.599

    6  <.400

    That's about a third of the time he has hit specific pitchers over .700 (only 6 out of 22 over .750).

    Hard to know if these sample sizes are large enough to be predictors of future performance, and therin lies the problem.

    My point is. Drew is a wekaness vs LHPs. The fact that we have no better option at the moment does not change that.

     

     

    With all these stats you can over think this game very easily. Platooning aall these guys gets them out of a rhythm and they have a very good chance of not performing as well as they would. Theres a much more importnant human element to this game. Its not just about ego.

    Gomes has been platooned for years.

    Thus, hes used to it. Guys like Drew play 150 games a year when healthy and are not used to being platooned. Guys like that usually dont do well when being platooned.

    OK, and 2 of the 4 seasons Drew played over 135 games, his OPS was under .750, plus the year he broke his foot, he was on pace for 150+ games and had a .713 OPS.

    We don't know how sitting Drew for 20-25% of the games would effect him. For all we know, it may help

    .

    Salty has been platooned. With Tito it was by caddying certain starters not L-R, but he was platooned none the less.

    Most Catchers always have some level of platooning every year or they would burn out if they tried to play 150 games.

    Why does that change the point that salty is thriving in the L-R platoon over the Caddy platoon.

     

    Victorino has not been platooned, but as he has aged, his split's differential has become more pronounced. He also seems to do pretty well after having multiple days off here and there.... just not vs RHPs. I understand his ego may get bruised by batting him 8th vs RHPs, but a sub .650 OPS batting 2nd in 65% of our games is not exactly good for the team either. It may not be all about ego. There is something to comfort zones and routines, but this team has seen its players bounced all over the line-up, except for Ellsbury, Pedey and Papi, although batting 3rd is pretty new for him.

    I guess we will have to agree to disagree on Drew once again Moon. I value his bat and defense more than you do. I respect your opinions, but I just dont see Drew as a player that deserves to not play 40+ games a year like you suggest. Especially with a career .761 OPS at SS and who has a .756OPS this year.

    Drew has been fielding better than I expected. I have admitted that, but you seem to think he is in the same level as Iggy, because he makes so few errors. Yes, we disagree. I think Drew is playing above average defense this year and Iggy is one of the best. I think Drew will continue to hit about .750-.800 vs RHPs (career .788) and under .700 vs LHPs (.690 but worse over the last 3 years combined & .613 this year). You think he will hit .750-.800 overall and make up for his .600-.700 OPS vs LHPs by bunching up his hits in streaks. I could care less how he comes to .600 to .700. I'd rather not have to play him, but right now, we have no choice, but to play this one of the "elephants".

    Sox4ever

     




     

    [/QUOTE]


     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: The Elephants in the Room

     Pedroia vs RHPs (.383 SLG and .735 OPS batting 3rd everyday)


    It's interesting how one writer said this is Pedroia's best season ever...I was like, are you kidding. He doesn't hit for any power, it's his lowest OPS season. Defensively, he's a stud, and he's been that way for all of his career. I think that he has trouble hitting righties for anything other than singles, is pretty scary. I'm convinced he may have been taking steriods in some of his earlier years..I hope I"m wrong, but it's pointing that way. 

    I seriously doubt the steroid claim, but these days everyone is a suspect to some people.

    The good thing is that Pedey is still over .350 in OBP vs RHPs, and if we can get a couple middle order hitters for next year, we can slide Pedey back to #2. (Maybe SV up #1 if Ells bolts.)

    Sox4ever

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: The Elephants in the Room

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

     

     

     

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

     

     

     

     

    It proves my theory WHEN HES SWINGING A HOT BAT. I think Ive been very clear about that.
    My very simple arguement with you is that I dont platoon Drew when hes hot. PERIOD.

    But, you would when he's not hot? When do you determine he is hot or not? By the time you figure it out, he may get cold or hot again and reverse trends. 

    I said SOME tough LHP he has trouble with, not a full platoon. I also said Drew is the kind of player that plays all the time. Your talking about most LHP and Im only talking a couple. Thanks, but Ive figured it out already and have been trying to explain it to you.

    Figured what out? That when someone is hot he has better numbers than when he is not hot? Thanks the "explaining" to me. I'd have never figured that out without your help.

     

     

    And yes, you HAVE to look at tiny sample sizes for this arguement because we/I'm talking about hitting streaks, not the whole body of work.

    Drew does eem to be hot right now. I'm not big on 10 game sample sizes, but at this point, our team does not have many other options on the leftsdie of the IF. I'm not high on Holt/Snyder both being in the line-up even vs LHPs instead of Drew, so of course, if Drew seems hot, keep playing him, but ideally, I'd want to sit Drew vs almost all LH'd starters.  In the long run, he will most likely bat near .600-.650 vs them, and to me, his defense is not that great to overcome that weakness. I also do not think not starting him in20-30% of the games is going to throw him out of whack, but I could be wrong.

    You want to play Drew in 120 games a year? No way. Hes a FT player and has had a 750-800 OPS throughout his career, so it makes no sense to have a full platoon vs LHP with this kind of hitter. Hes been 100pts over the league average for an MLB SS even with a few bad games vs.LHP.

    I want to sit Drew against most LHPs, so maybe 130 games, but that was when we had better options. We don't now. Iggy is gone and Boggy is in AAA right now. I have said I do not want Holt and Snyder starting at the same time, but that doesn't change the fact that drew vs LHP is an "elephant". Have I explained that well enough for you?

     

     

    Ive NEVER said not to throw in a RHH for him against some tough LHP he struggles with, but overall, Ill play Drew all the time because hes just that kind of player. You take the good with the bad. Iggy is a low 600OPS hitter regardless of his early season luck. Drews defense is plenty good enough to carry a low 600OPS when hes not swinging a hot bat.

    I disagree. He's no Iggy on defense, and I believe you and others were not for carrying Iggy's .600 OPS because you felt his defense made up for it. (Correct me if I am wrong.)

    The thing is, Iggy is a 600OPS all the time whereas Drew will go on 900OPS streaks and is a 750-800OPS player. Knowing that, you can deal with the down times. Hes no Iggy on defense, but besides a couple highlight reels plays, hes a very solid MLB SS who makes few mistakes.

    Yes, he makes the plays hit to him. I'm glad you have figured out Iggy is a .600 OPS guy "all the time". His career MLB OPS is .686. His minor league OPS was .622 at ages 20-23. Yeah, he is .600. It's a fact.

    Explain away that drew has been under .750 the last 3 years combined. 

    The fact is Drew goes on .900+ OPS hot  streaks vs RHPs and maybe .800+ vs LHPs for multiple short times during his career. But, for much longer streaks, he goes on .700-.850 streaks vs RHPs and under .600 vs LHPs. He's been very consistent vs LHPs over the years. I think he only had one decent season vs lefties.

    He is likely to continue to struggle vs LHPs, and it is not easily predictable which games he might or might not do well in.  You want to sit him vs LHPs he struggle sagainst. How many are there? What sample sizes do you trust? Most of his larger sample sizes are vs NL pitchers, so my guess is you'd start him in all but normal rest games that you'd schedule against tough LH'd pitchers (maybe 5% of the games at most).

    A quick look at Drew's OPS vs LH'd pitchers shows that he has only faced 22 LH'd pitchers more than 12 PAs. Out of those 22, he has an OPS of ...

    5  .800+

    3  .700-.799

    4  .600-.699

    4  .500-.599

    6  <.400

    That's about a third of the time he has hit specific pitchers over .700 (only 6 out of 22 over .750).

    Hard to know if these sample sizes are large enough to be predictors of future performance, and therin lies the problem.

    My point is. Drew is a wekaness vs LHPs. The fact that we have no better option at the moment does not change that.

     

     

    With all these stats you can over think this game very easily. Platooning aall these guys gets them out of a rhythm and they have a very good chance of not performing as well as they would. Theres a much more importnant human element to this game. Its not just about ego.

    Gomes has been platooned for years.

    Thus, hes used to it. Guys like Drew play 150 games a year when healthy and are not used to being platooned. Guys like that usually dont do well when being platooned.

    OK, and 2 of the 4 seasons Drew played over 135 games, his OPS was under .750, plus the year he broke his foot, he was on pace for 150+ games and had a .713 OPS.

    We don't know how sitting Drew for 20-25% of the games would effect him. For all we know, it may help

    .

    Salty has been platooned. With Tito it was by caddying certain starters not L-R, but he was platooned none the less.

    Most Catchers always have some level of platooning every year or they would burn out if they tried to play 150 games.

    Why does that change the point that salty is thriving in the L-R platoon over the Caddy platoon.

     

    Victorino has not been platooned, but as he has aged, his split's differential has become more pronounced. He also seems to do pretty well after having multiple days off here and there.... just not vs RHPs. I understand his ego may get bruised by batting him 8th vs RHPs, but a sub .650 OPS batting 2nd in 65% of our games is not exactly good for the team either. It may not be all about ego. There is something to comfort zones and routines, but this team has seen its players bounced all over the line-up, except for Ellsbury, Pedey and Papi, although batting 3rd is pretty new for him.

    I guess we will have to agree to disagree on Drew once again Moon. I value his bat and defense more than you do. I respect your opinions, but I just dont see Drew as a player that deserves to not play 40+ games a year like you suggest. Especially with a career .761 OPS at SS and who has a .756OPS this year.

    Drew has been fielding better than I expected. I have admitted that, but you seem to think he is in the same level as Iggy, because he makes so few errors. Yes, we disagree. I think Drew is playing above average defense this year and Iggy is one of the best. I think Drew will continue to hit about .750-.800 vs RHPs (career .788) and under .700 vs LHPs (.690 but worse over the last 3 years combined & .613 this year). You think he will hit .750-.800 overall and make up for his .600-.700 OPS vs LHPs by bunching up his hits in streaks. I could care less how he comes to .600 to .700. I'd rather not have to play him, but right now, we have no choice, but to play this one of the "elephants".

    Sox4ever

     

     

     




     

     

     

     

     




     

     

     




    Like I said, we agree to disagree.

     

    Drews OPS is obviously down since 2011 because of the injury. hes been healthy for the most part this year and is above .750 again.

    Since the conversation is starting to get a bit snarky, Id rather end it here. Weve both made our cases and although I think you might have misunderstood a couple things I was saying, My basic point was clear That I dont sit a career 750+ OPS MLB SS 40 games a year just because there is a LHP on the mound.

    I always enjoy going back and forth with you Moon and respect your POV's and passion.

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from bosoxmal. Show bosoxmal's posts

    Re: The Elephants in the Room

    In response to dannycater's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    [QUOTE]There's nothing mysterious about his lack of power. Forget about any PEDs. Teams have learned how to pitch to him. He loves the high inside fast ball he can yank into the seats. So they give him one or two (out of his zone), then go back to the outside slider off the plate. Now he's looking for that so he might at least get that single to right. Even I get confused watching him guess; imagine how he feels while doing the guessing!

    As far as Napoli is concerned, I'm guessing he's won us about 3 games, and cost us about 12. That's not a very good ratio. I'd put him 8th against lefties and sit him against righties.

     

    All the recent talk seems to be pointed at Napoli and his Ks. Looking at almost any sample size, 2013 season, last 28 days, or last 14 days, one can see that Napoli is near the the lead in almost every category:

    2013 Season: 2nd in OPS (3rd if you count Carp with just 172 PAs)

         2nd in OPS (3rd if you count Carp with 172 PAs)

         5th in OBP

        2nd in SLG%

        2nd in HRs

        1st in 2Bs

        2nd in XBHs (2 behind Papi)

        3rd in RBI (2 behind Pedey who has 36 more PAs with M.O.B & 14 more w/RISP)

    Last 28 days: 3rd in OPS

     

    Last 14 days: 5th in OPS

     

    Napoli should not be a 5 hitter, especially vs RHPs, but it's not his fault the team was pretty much forced to put him there due to lack of better options. (A case could have been made for Carp 5th vs RHPs by June this year.)

     

    The "elephants in the room" are barely mentioned, but to me are our clear offensive weaknesses:

    (Not in order of biggest team weakness)

    1) Pedroia vs RHPs (.383 SLG and .735 OPS batting 3rd everyday)

    2) Drew vs LHPs (.252 OBP and .600 OPS - now our everyday SS)

    3) Salty vs LHPs (.574 OPS and nobody trustworthy enough to platoon with him)

    4) Victorino vs RHPs (.314 OBP and .707 OPS firmly entrenched in the 2 slot FT)

    (Nava vs LHPs and Gomes vs RHPs are not a big concerns, since they can be platooned.)

    4 elephants: not many solutions in the system.

     

    Some possible suggestions that might help (feel free to pitch in with other ideas):

    1) Nava bat 2nd vs RHPs instead of Victorino (or Pedey 2nd with his .352 OBP v RHPs and Nava 3rd).

    2) Lava play vs LHPs despite the danger. Salty needs to rest or he will hit the wall soon.

    3) Holt play SS and Snyder 3B (or Boggy/Middy) vs LHPs despite the hit to Drew's ego, or try and make a waiver-wire deal for a platoon 3Bman or SS who kills lefties.

     

     

     




     

    1) Pedroia vs RHPs (.383 SLG and .735 OPS batting 3rd everyday)


    It's interesting how one writer said this is Pedroia's best season ever...I was like, are you kidding. He doesn't hit for any power, it's his lowest OPS season. Defensively, he's a stud, and he's been that way for all of his career. I think that he has trouble hitting righties for anything other than singles, is pretty scary. I'm convinced he may have been taking steriods in some of his earlier years..I hope I"m wrong, but it's pointing that way. 

    [/QUOTE]


     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from maxbialystock. Show maxbialystock's posts

    Re: The Elephants in the Room


    I going to say this one more time and then drop out. 

    Moonslav, the elephant in the room is that the offense has been pretty darn good all year long and is right now second best in MLB.  Yes, there are all kinds of tweaks that could maybe be done, but I give Cherington and Farrell a ton of credit for what they have done already.  In your zeal to defend Napoli and point out the weaknesses of a slew of other batters--and referring to those weaknesses as "elephants"--is to me wrong headed.  With your grasp of statistics and details about a ton of MLB players, the temptation to point those weaknesses (and possible fixes) must be be great.  Fine.  Have at it.  But as for me, I just don't see the elephantine problems you seem to see. 

     
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    Re: The Elephants in the Room

    Say what you will. Drew is batting .189 vs. left handed pitching.  

    Stabbed by Foulke.

     
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    Re: The Elephants in the Room

    There's one other set of splits that I think needs to be taken into account.  Baseball-Reference also provides numbers vs. 'LH starters' and vs. 'RH starters'.  These stats show the splits for the entire game where the starter was a lefty or a righty, including the relievers that followed.  It makes sense to include these splits because you don't have the luxury of automatically switching your platoon every time a new handed pitcher enters the game.  Because of the limited number of bench players you're often stuck with a player the whole game.

    So for example, Drew is .827 vs. all RHP and .613 vs. all LHP.

    But he is .784 in RH starter games and .668 in LH starter games.  Still a bad split but you can see that there is some mitigation there. 

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: The Elephants in the Room

    Like I said, we agree to disagree.

     

    Drews OPS is obviously down since 2011 because of the injury. hes been healthy for the most part this year and is above .750 again.

    Since the conversation is starting to get a bit snarky, Id rather end it here. Weve both made our cases and although I think you might have misunderstood a couple things I was saying, My basic point was clear That I dont sit a career 750+ OPS MLB SS 40 games a year just because there is a LHP on the mound.

    I always enjoy going back and forth with you Moon and respect your POV's and passion.

    Yes, sorry for getting snarky on you.

    I respect your position, but disagree.

    I'm not saying Drew won't end up near .800 and Iggy won't end up near .600, but we just don't know. We have a larger sample size to work with on Drew, but I guess we see different things.

    You see a .761 career OPS player who has improved his fielding over the year.

    I see this: Drew is an improving .788 hitter vs RHPs and a declining .690 hitter vs LHPs who averages out to a .761 OPS. I see an improving fielder with limited range, but who makes almost all the routine plays.

    I see myself as wanting to play a .775-.800 hitter and benching a .600-.690 hitter.

    I also value one specific sample size you seem to want to minimize. The last significant sample size Drew had before he broke his ankle was a pretty large sample of 354 PAs in 2011 (86 games). His numbers were .252/.317/.396/.713. His numbers since them have been close to .710 combined. I know some of those 700+ PAs were trying to get in the swing of things after being out hurt with the ankle and other injuries since the start of 2011, but I see the odds of him being a .720 OPS guy (.800 vs RHPs/,620 vs LHPs) as about the same as him being a .780 guy. I think a .750 projection is about right, but I think a .600 Iggy projection is being a bit harsh.

    I'm curious why the 2011 354 PA sample size should be discounted, but this year's 323 PAs sample size proves something. His 2011 numbers were not "obviously" injury related. He was healthy then.

     

    Sox4ever

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: The Elephants in the Room

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    Like I said, we agree to disagree.

     

    Drews OPS is obviously down since 2011 because of the injury. hes been healthy for the most part this year and is above .750 again.

    Since the conversation is starting to get a bit snarky, Id rather end it here. Weve both made our cases and although I think you might have misunderstood a couple things I was saying, My basic point was clear That I dont sit a career 750+ OPS MLB SS 40 games a year just because there is a LHP on the mound.

    I always enjoy going back and forth with you Moon and respect your POV's and passion.

    Yes, sorry for getting snarky on you.

    I respect your position, but disagree.

    I'm not saying Drew won't end up near .800 and Iggy won't end up near .600, but we just don't know. We have a larger sample size to work with on Drew, but I guess we see different things.

    You see a .761 career OPS player who has improved his fielding over the year.

    I see this: Drew is an improving .788 hitter vs RHPs and a declining .690 hitter vs LHPs who averages out to a .761 OPS. I see an improving fielder with limited range, but who makes almost all the routine plays.

    I see myself as wanting to play a .775-.800 hitter and benching a .600-.690 hitter.

    I also value one specific sample size you seem to want to minimize. The last significant sample size Drew had before he broke his ankle was a pretty large sample of 354 PAs in 2011 (86 games). His numbers were .252/.317/.396/.713. His numbers since them have been close to .710 combined. I know some of those 700+ PAs were trying to get in the swing of things after being out hurt with the ankle and other injuries since the start of 2011, but I see the odds of him being a .720 OPS guy (.800 vs RHPs/,620 vs LHPs) as about the same as him being a .780 guy. I think a .750 projection is about right, but I think a .600 Iggy projection is being a bit harsh.

     

    Sox4ever




    I thought I said mid 600OPS for Iggy. if I didnt, then I apologize and can see where the misunderstanding came from. I think Iggy will be right around, maybe slightly lower, than league average OPS for an MLB SS.

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: The Elephants in the Room

    In response to maxbialystock's comment:


    I going to say this one more time and then drop out. 

    Moonslav, the elephant in the room is that the offense has been pretty darn good all year long and is right now second best in MLB.  Yes, there are all kinds of tweaks that could maybe be done, but I give Cherington and Farrell a ton of credit for what they have done already.  In your zeal to defend Napoli and point out the weaknesses of a slew of other batters--and referring to those weaknesses as "elephants"--is to me wrong headed.  With your grasp of statistics and details about a ton of MLB players, the temptation to point those weaknesses (and possible fixes) must be be great.  Fine.  Have at it.  But as for me, I just don't see the elephantine problems you seem to see. 




    I seriously doubt you will "drop out".

    I give Ben and John a lot of credit too, and I'm tired of posters implying that pointing out weaknesses on a team means I need to blame someone for it.

    My "zeal" is not to "defend Napoli", but to point out that Napoli is not the only issue, and that he may not even be one of the biggest issues.

    I realize we have a top 2 offense in MLB over the whole season, but we are slipping. One way to try and improve a team is to try and identify our weakest areas, even if those areas are not all that bad as compared to the rest of the league, and then to try and improve those areas.

    I am sure than Ben and john know we are weaker vs LHPs than RHPs. I'm sure they are watching Napoli's performance with a microscope. I'm sure they weighed and prioritized our biggest need areas vs what was available and at what cost. They picked up a very good starting pitcher for someone they viewed as a utility IF'er. They improved the team in a very important area by trading off in another area (defense and hitting vs LHPs).

    Hitting vs LHPs is an elephant in the room. The fact that we are 2nd in offense does not change that fact, and if we get to a 7 game series with the Rays this fall, I'm sure seeing Moore and Price for 4 games is going to scare the you-know-what out of you, me, Ben and John. 

    I'm not blaming Ben for putting SP as the number one priority. I happen to agree that SP should always be #1 on the list.

    I often talk about what is good about this team. I went to great lengths to show how our offense is more balanced than Detroit and other AL contenders. I'm not all about finding weaknesses and "elephants". 

    I used the word "elephants", because the players I named are hardly ever discussed as being weak areas, while Napoli is being dragged through the mud on numerous threads.

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: The Elephants in the Room

    In response to dgalehouse's comment:

    Say what you will. Drew is batting .189 vs. left handed pitching.  

    Stabbed by Foulke.



    Some choose not to "see" that.

    It's a larger sample size than Naps last 10-12 games.

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: The Elephants in the Room

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

    There's one other set of splits that I think needs to be taken into account.  Baseball-Reference also provides numbers vs. 'LH starters' and vs. 'RH starters'.  These stats show the splits for the entire game where the starter was a lefty or a righty, including the relievers that followed.  It makes sense to include these splits because you don't have the luxury of automatically switching your platoon every time a new handed pitcher enters the game.  Because of the limited number of bench players you're often stuck with a player the whole game.

    So for example, Drew is .827 vs. all RHP and .613 vs. all LHP.

    But he is .784 in RH starter games and .668 in LH starter games.  Still a bad split but you can see that there is some mitigation there. 



    Yes, but Drew could always PH when they change hands of the pitcher and realize the gains he made in those games he started vs a lefty then got hits off the righty reliever.

    The same thing shows for the team as a whole:

    vs LHP  .718 (when LH'er starts: .758)

    vs RHP .813  (when RH'er starts: .792)

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: The Elephants in the Room

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

     



    I thought I said mid 600OPS for Iggy. if I didnt, then I apologize and can see where the misunderstanding came from. I think Iggy will be right around, maybe slightly lower, than league average OPS for an MLB SS.

    OK, that does clear thing up a bit. You had said this...

    The thing is, Iggy is a 600OPS all the time whereas Drew will go on 900OPS streaks and is a 750-800OPS player.

    Iggy has actually shown he is streak too. 




     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: The Elephants in the Room

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    Yes, but Drew could always PH when they change hands of the pitcher and realize the gains he made in those games he started vs a lefty then got hits off the righty reliever.

    The same thing shows for the team as a whole:

    vs LHP  .718 (when LH'er starts: .758)

    vs RHP .813  (when RH'er starts: .792)



    From an offensive standpoint that would seem to make sense.  But defensively it adds risk because the team only carries one backup middle infielder. 

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: The Elephants in the Room

    Rixght now Drew's .668 vs LH'd starter games is not much worse than going with Holt at SS and Snyder at 3B vs LHPs, so I do not see any changes being helpful with the roster as it is right now, but the fact is, it remains an elephant on the same scale as Napoli's.

    Sox4ever

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from dgalehouse. Show dgalehouse's posts

    Re: The Elephants in the Room

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    Rixght now Drew's .668 vs LH'd starter games is not much worse than going with Holt at SS and Snyder at 3B vs LHPs, so I do not see any changes being helpful with the roster as it is right now, but the fact is, it remains an elephant on the same scale as Napoli's.

    Sox4ever



    By the way , if you are going to the game tonight, don't wear the same cap as last night. That one did not work. 

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from zbellino. Show zbellino's posts

    Re: The Elephants in the Room

    I get the lines ... but I don't see how any of this is an elephant in the room. 

    Most players aren't equally effective across the L/R split ... most of those players are pretty tight across the split except Drew this season. But what's the difference? The guy bats in the bottom half and never makes errors.

    The solution is real easy. Just keep Drew in .... but bring up Bogaerts and ease him in at 3rd. It will likely pay dividends immediately.  

     
     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: The Elephants in the Room

    In response to dgalehouse's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

    Rixght now Drew's .668 vs LH'd starter games is not much worse than going with Holt at SS and Snyder at 3B vs LHPs, so I do not see any changes being helpful with the roster as it is right now, but the fact is, it remains an elephant on the same scale as Napoli's.

    Sox4ever

     



    By the way , if you are going to the game tonight, don't wear the same cap as last night. That one did not work. 

     

    [/QUOTE]

    I'll wear my red Sox shirt not the blue one.

    I don't wear caps.

    My luck has not been good at Sox games.

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: The Elephants in the Room

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    Rixght now Drew's .668 vs LH'd starter games is not much worse than going with Holt at SS and Snyder at 3B vs LHPs, so I do not see any changes being helpful with the roster as it is right now, but the fact is, it remains an elephant on the same scale as Napoli's.

    Sox4ever




    where are you sitting Moon and will you have a hat or shirt on so we might recognize you?

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: The Elephants in the Room

    Last night I was being the first base dugout 24 rows back.

    There must have as many Sox fans as Stros fans.

    I'm in the nosebleed section tonight: 3b side top tier but row 1.

    I'm the bald guy next to the hot Mexicana.

    Sox4ever

     
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