The Great Split Divide

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    The Great Split Divide

    The 2013 Sox have some serious lefty-righty split differentials:

    Career OPS

             vs RHPs  vs LHPs  Diff

    Salty       .774   .591      .183

    Ortiz       .972   .824      .148

    Nava       .768   .621     .147* (small sample size)

    Drew      .784   .699      .085

    Ellsbury  .803   .762      .035

    D Ross    .771   .764     .007

    Ciriaco   .723   .732    -.009

    Pedroia  .821   .853    -.032

    Napoli    .845   .911    -.066

    Middlbrk .798  .906    -.108* (small sample size)

    Victorino .730  .881    -.151

    J Gomes  .732  .894   -.162 

     

    As you can see, there are some great differentials on both sides of the plate. 

    A Gomes/Nava and Salty/Ross platoon is obvious and should help alot, but there are several others on this list that will essentially be close to black holes vs certain handed pitchers.

    Papi appears to have dealt with his poor splits vs LHPs, but he is aging.

    Drew and Victorino seem like they may be the biggest problem areas vs off-handed pitchers. Middlebrooks may also have issues, but the sample size is too small to project going forward.

    I think we may have to see some line-up shuffling to maximize the amount of PAs by those with good records vs the type of starting pitcher on the mound.

     

    I'd go with something like this....

         vs RHPs    vs LHPs

    1)        Ellsbury

    2) Drew*       Victorino         

    3)        Pedey       

    4)         Papi

    5)       Napoli

    6)       Midds

    7) Nava*     Gomes

    8) Salty        Ross

    9) Victorino  Drew

    *I might flip nava and Drew if nava is on a good OBP kick, or if Drew is struggling.

    Also, it might also be nice to find a way to move Gomes up in the order vs LHPs.

     

     

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: The Great Split Divide

    I read a quote by Farrell that he plans to have Victorino hit #2 against LHP and Pedroia #2 against RHP.

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: The Great Split Divide

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

    I read a quote by Farrell that he plans to have Victorino hit #2 against LHP and Pedroia #2 against RHP.



    I like the sound of his flexibility. I wonder if he will put SV up 9th vs RHPs or maybe 7th.

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: The Great Split Divide

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

     

    I read a quote by Farrell that he plans to have Victorino hit #2 against LHP and Pedroia #2 against RHP.

     



    I like the sound of his flexibility. I wonder if he will put SV up 9th vs RHPs or maybe 7th.

     




    i wouldn't mind seeing him hit 9th against RHP. the numbers definitely warrant him being at the tail end of the order vs RHP. But having him 9th as opposed to 7th will allow us to get some speed on the basepaths head of jacoby. I want to see some double steal action.

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: The Great Split Divide

    In response to mef429's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

     

    I read a quote by Farrell that he plans to have Victorino hit #2 against LHP and Pedroia #2 against RHP.

     



    I like the sound of his flexibility. I wonder if he will put SV up 9th vs RHPs or maybe 7th.

     

     




    i wouldn't mind seeing him hit 9th against RHP. the numbers definitely warrant him being at the tail end of the order vs RHP. But having him 9th as opposed to 7th will allow us to get some speed on the basepaths head of jacoby. I want to see some double steal action.

     



    I agree, and had this same position when Crawford was here.

    I could see this...

     

      vs RHPs    vs LHPs

    1)        Ellsbury

    2) Pedey     Victorino         

    3) Napoli       Pedey       

    4)         Papi

    5) Midds       Napoli

    6) Salty         Midds

    7) Drew       Gomes

    8) Nava        Ross

    9) Victorino  Drew

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: The Great Split Divide

    theres a lot to like with those lineups. Probably not tops in the league but i definitely see us scoring some runs. Just gotta hope the pitching holds up *fingers crossed*

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: The Great Split Divide

    In response to mef429's comment:

    theres a lot to like with those lineups. Probably not tops in the league but i definitely see us scoring some runs. Just gotta hope the pitching holds up *fingers crossed*



    I'd rather not have to hope and pray, but what else is there to do?

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: The Great Split Divide

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

    I read a quote by Farrell that he plans to have Victorino hit #2 against LHP and Pedroia #2 against RHP.



    I heard Farrell say that in a Red Sox town hall on NESN last night.  He didn't seem committed to giving a deadset lineup, but was giving an example of how he might be flexible with the lineup.  

    Regardless, all things considered, I'd consider it a hint on to how he views Victorino and where he will fit in on the lineup card. 

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: The Great Split Divide

    I have always been deadset about breaking the aradigm of players needing to find comfort in needing to be in the same batting order slot every game. It's absurd.

    We used to have managers that would go out of their way not to move a guy from the 5 slot to the 4 slot, even if the 4 slot guy was resting. They'd put the sub up 4th instead. That just about made be blow an artery.

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from parhunter55. Show parhunter55's posts

    Re: The Great Split Divide

    If I were trying to decide between guys to bat in the 2 slot, I'd focus on OBP and OBP splits, not OPS, as I would not care so much about slugging, which is given equal weight to OBP in the OPS.  Deciding on the 3-6 slots is different, IMO.  But OBP would be my guide for whether a guy should hit at the top or the bottom of the order.

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from tomnev. Show tomnev's posts

    Re: The Great Split Divide

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    I have always been deadset about breaking the aradigm of players needing to find comfort in needing to be in the same batting order slot every game. It's absurd.

    We used to have managers that would go out of their way not to move a guy from the 5 slot to the 4 slot, even if the 4 slot guy was resting. They'd put the sub up 4th instead. That just about made be blow an artery.


    I agree with this for the most part and for most of the spots in the lineup, but leadoff and the two spot may be slightly different. A players mentality in the leadoff spot and two spot tend to be different than the other lineup spots.....the leadoff guy is usually thinking get on base any way they can, and the two spot guy made be less aggresive and more move the runner over. When A guy is doing those roles for long stretches, I can see where a manager may be reluctant to shift them around. I do think however, as with your lineups, if a guy all year is in the 2 hole vs LHP and elsewhere versus RHP, they can get used to the different roles.....its the last minute switches that might be less successful.

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from Drewski5. Show Drewski5's posts

    Re: The Great Split Divide

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    I have always been deadset about breaking the aradigm of players needing to find comfort in needing to be in the same batting order slot every game. It's absurd.

    We used to have managers that would go out of their way not to move a guy from the 5 slot to the 4 slot, even if the 4 slot guy was resting. They'd put the sub up 4th instead. That just about made be blow an artery.



    Agreed on all counts.  "players need to find comfort" is a dated cliche.  

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from Drewski5. Show Drewski5's posts

    Re: The Great Split Divide

    In response to tomnev's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    I have always been deadset about breaking the aradigm of players needing to find comfort in needing to be in the same batting order slot every game. It's absurd.

    We used to have managers that would go out of their way not to move a guy from the 5 slot to the 4 slot, even if the 4 slot guy was resting. They'd put the sub up 4th instead. That just about made be blow an artery.

     


    I agree with this for the most part and for most of the spots in the lineup, but leadoff and the two spot may be slightly different. A players mentality in the leadoff spot and two spot tend to be different than the other lineup spots.....the leadoff guy is usually thinking get on base any way they can, and the two spot guy made be less aggresive and more move the runner over. When A guy is doing those roles for long stretches, I can see where a manager may be reluctant to shift them around. I do think however, as with your lineups, if a guy all year is in the 2 hole vs LHP and elsewhere versus RHP, they can get used to the different roles.....its the last minute switches that might be less successful.

     



    I dont think players should change how they approach their at-bats based on batting order.  I think its the inverse.  Players should play to their strengths and leave it up to the manager to figure the lineup out.

    Ellsbury, when at the plate, should focus on being Ellsbury.  Ditto w/ Pedroia and ditto w/ Vic.  Do what you do best.

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: The Great Split Divide

    In response to Drewski5's comment:

    I agree with this for the most part and for most of the spots in the lineup, but leadoff and the two spot may be slightly different. A players mentality in the leadoff spot and two spot tend to be different than the other lineup spots.....the leadoff guy is usually thinking get on base any way they can, and the two spot guy made be less aggresive and more move the runner over. When A guy is doing those roles for long stretches, I can see where a manager may be reluctant to shift them around. I do think however, as with your lineups, if a guy all year is in the 2 hole vs LHP and elsewhere versus RHP, they can get used to the different roles.....its the last minute switches that might be less successful. 

    I dont think players should change how they approach their at-bats based on batting order.  I think its the inverse.  Players should play to their strengths and leave it up to the manager to figure the lineup out.

    Ellsbury, when at the plate, should focus on being Ellsbury.  Ditto w/ Pedroia and ditto w/ Vic.  Do what you do best.



    What you and moon are saying makes perfect sense.  OTOH I do think the psyche of a major league hitter is probably a somewhat fragile thing.  I remember when Ellsbury was injured a few years ago and they tried Pedroia at leadoff and he did terribly.  He said it totally messed up his head and his approach.  Like I say what you and moon makes sense but if Pedroia says there's a big psychological difference who am I to argue with him? 

     

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from devildavid. Show devildavid's posts

    Re: The Great Split Divide

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:


    What you and moon are saying makes perfect sense.  OTOH I do think the psyche of a major league hitter is probably a somewhat fragile thing.  I remember when Ellsbury was injured a few years ago and they tried Pedroia at leadoff and he did terribly.  He said it totally messed up his head and his approach.  Like I say what you and moon makes sense but if Pedroia says there's a big psychological difference who am I to argue with him? 



    Players are human beings. They are not just walking bundles of statistics. They came to those numbers doing things a certain way. To assume they will come to the same numbers in a different way may or may not be true. I think numbers guys underestimate the human factor.

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: The Great Split Divide

    In response to devildavid's comment:

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

     


    What you and moon are saying makes perfect sense.  OTOH I do think the psyche of a major league hitter is probably a somewhat fragile thing.  I remember when Ellsbury was injured a few years ago and they tried Pedroia at leadoff and he did terribly.  He said it totally messed up his head and his approach.  Like I say what you and moon makes sense but if Pedroia says there's a big psychological difference who am I to argue with him? 

     



    Players are human beings. They are not just walking bundles of statistics. They came to those numbers doing things a certain way. To assume they will come to the same numbers in a different way may or may not be true. I think numbers guys underestimate the human factor.

     



    I played the game for many many years. I don't see much difference in where I batted in terms of comfort.

    Just because I enjoy numebrs, doesn't mean I don't understand the human aspect of the game. There may be a few hitters who thrive on consistency of approach, but within each game one's approach changes or should change as the game situations change anyways (man on, one behind, 5 ahead, no outs, 2 outs, etc...).

    This is my line-up philosophy in a nutshell, although nothing is etched in stone:

    1) You fill in the 3 slot hitter first. He should be your best OBP & SLG guy combined. Splits matter. Record vs that pitcher matters some, if the sampkle size is big (rare).

    2) The 4 slot is filled by your biggest power hitter left over, unless he has a huge OBP differential to the worse as compared to another power hitter you have.

    3) The 1 slot should be your best OBP guy with speed as a tie breaker if it is close.

    4) The 2 slot should be someone who gets OB and makes contact. Speed is a plus, but not essential.

    5) The 5 slot, followed by 6, 7, 8, & 9.

    6) Lefty-Righty alternations are over-rated, especially if you have some hitters who hit both sides close to equal (like Ellsbury, Pedey and Papi of late). If it is a close call, then alternate L-R-L.

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: The Great Split Divide

    If you make up the lineup based solely on splits, you should probably have a different lineup vs. every opposing pitcher based on hitters' numbers vs. that pitcher.

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from DirtyWaterLover. Show DirtyWaterLover's posts

    Re: The Great Split Divide

    Salty is the only one of concern.  All of the others have really relatively high OPS on both sides, but really high on one side.  Ortiz has a fairly sizeable difference in OPS, but his low side is .824.

    A lefty without a low OPS against lefty pitchers is a rarity.

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from jasko2248. Show jasko2248's posts

    Re: The Great Split Divide

    In response to devildavid's comment:

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

     


    What you and moon are saying makes perfect sense.  OTOH I do think the psyche of a major league hitter is probably a somewhat fragile thing.  I remember when Ellsbury was injured a few years ago and they tried Pedroia at leadoff and he did terribly.  He said it totally messed up his head and his approach.  Like I say what you and moon makes sense but if Pedroia says there's a big psychological difference who am I to argue with him? 

     



    Players are human beings. They are not just walking bundles of statistics. They came to those numbers doing things a certain way. To assume they will come to the same numbers in a different way may or may not be true. I think numbers guys underestimate the human factor.

     



    Exactly...many players are very superstitious and ridiculous creatures of habit.  Not all obviously, but there are certainly enough of them that you can't just have a computer spit out a line-up every day based on matchups.  Yogi's percentages may have been a little off, but the mental aspect of the game is very real.

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from devildavid. Show devildavid's posts

    Re: The Great Split Divide

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to devildavid's comment:

     

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

     


    What you and moon are saying makes perfect sense.  OTOH I do think the psyche of a major league hitter is probably a somewhat fragile thing.  I remember when Ellsbury was injured a few years ago and they tried Pedroia at leadoff and he did terribly.  He said it totally messed up his head and his approach.  Like I say what you and moon makes sense but if Pedroia says there's a big psychological difference who am I to argue with him? 

     



    Players are human beings. They are not just walking bundles of statistics. They came to those numbers doing things a certain way. To assume they will come to the same numbers in a different way may or may not be true. I think numbers guys underestimate the human factor.

     

     



    I played the game for many many years. I don't see much difference in where I batted in terms of comfort.

     

    Just because I enjoy numebrs, doesn't mean I don't understand the human aspect of the game. There may be a few hitters who thrive on consistency of approach, but within each game one's approach changes or should change as the game situations change anyways (man on, one behind, 5 ahead, no outs, 2 outs, etc...).

    This is my line-up philosophy in a nutshell, although nothing is etched in stone:

    1) You fill in the 3 slot hitter first. He should be your best OBP & SLG guy combined. Splits matter. Record vs that pitcher matters some, if the sampkle size is big (rare).

    2) The 4 slot is filled by your biggest power hitter left over, unless he has a huge OBP differential to the worse as compared to another power hitter you have.

    3) The 1 slot should be your best OBP guy with speed as a tie breaker if it is close.

    4) The 2 slot should be someone who gets OB and makes contact. Speed is a plus, but not essential.

    5) The 5 slot, followed by 6, 7, 8, & 9.

    6) Lefty-Righty alternations are over-rated, especially if you have some hitters who hit both sides close to equal (like Ellsbury, Pedey and Papi of late). If it is a close call, then alternate L-R-L.



    You say you understand the human aspect, but in the case of batting order you seem to pretty much discount it. Your personal experience with comfort in the batting order is not universal. In this case, you are saying numbers are more important. But you are not giving much credence to the possiblity that the numbers came about in part because of how the player was utilized. And I'm not just talking about "comfort".

    There is an interesting article on fangraphs related to this subject.

     http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/player-attitudes-and-applied-sabermetrics/

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: The Great Split Divide

    In response to devildavid's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    In response to devildavid's comment:

     

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

     


    What you and moon are saying makes perfect sense.  OTOH I do think the psyche of a major league hitter is probably a somewhat fragile thing.  I remember when Ellsbury was injured a few years ago and they tried Pedroia at leadoff and he did terribly.  He said it totally messed up his head and his approach.  Like I say what you and moon makes sense but if Pedroia says there's a big psychological difference who am I to argue with him? 

     



    Players are human beings. They are not just walking bundles of statistics. They came to those numbers doing things a certain way. To assume they will come to the same numbers in a different way may or may not be true. I think numbers guys underestimate the human factor.

     

     



    I played the game for many many years. I don't see much difference in where I batted in terms of comfort.

     

    Just because I enjoy numebrs, doesn't mean I don't understand the human aspect of the game. There may be a few hitters who thrive on consistency of approach, but within each game one's approach changes or should change as the game situations change anyways (man on, one behind, 5 ahead, no outs, 2 outs, etc...).

    This is my line-up philosophy in a nutshell, although nothing is etched in stone:

    1) You fill in the 3 slot hitter first. He should be your best OBP & SLG guy combined. Splits matter. Record vs that pitcher matters some, if the sampkle size is big (rare).

    2) The 4 slot is filled by your biggest power hitter left over, unless he has a huge OBP differential to the worse as compared to another power hitter you have.

    3) The 1 slot should be your best OBP guy with speed as a tie breaker if it is close.

    4) The 2 slot should be someone who gets OB and makes contact. Speed is a plus, but not essential.

    5) The 5 slot, followed by 6, 7, 8, & 9.

    6) Lefty-Righty alternations are over-rated, especially if you have some hitters who hit both sides close to equal (like Ellsbury, Pedey and Papi of late). If it is a close call, then alternate L-R-L.

     



    You say you understand the human aspect, but in the case of batting order you seem to pretty much discount it. Your personal experience with comfort in the batting order is not universal. In this case, you are saying numbers are more important. But you are not giving much credence to the possiblity that the numbers came about in part because of how the player was utilized. And I'm not just talking about "comfort".

     

    There is an interesting article on fangraphs related to this subject.

     http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/player-attitudes-and-applied-sabermetrics/




    I really do not think many players are effected by moving them around the order a little bit over a year or even a lot in some cases. There may be a few players who pout and their performance suffers, but I think it is overblown. I also look at it this way: for every player than is upset that he has been dropped in the line-up, there is a player pumped up in confide3nce that he has been moved up or is even in the line-up.

    I remember playing for a manager who batted me 6th or 7th when I had the best BA, OBP, and speed on the base paths on the team. I was upset, yes, but my numbers never dipped. Once you are past the first inning, it really hardly seems to matter. I was happy to get RBI opportunities being behind some good hitters, instead of being behind the bottom of the order. Eventually, he moved me up to second in the order, and when the leadoff guy got hurt, I made it to 1st up and stayed there for a year and a half.

     

    I'm not talking radical swapping around of slots. My line-ups posted are pretty tame in terms of flipping people. As a manager, I'd never surprise a player with a move. They'd know it ahead of time, and the reasons why.

    I probably would rely on L-R splits more than I see most managers rely on, but those numbers are not in a vacumn. Numbers vs that particular pitcher or type of pitcher (Heat, finess, sinker...) makes a difference as well. For the most part, a player would know where he would bat vs a RHP and vs a LHP.

    Here's one example: I hear many posters say we should never move Pedey from the 2 slot, because he has been so great there, and his great contact, decent speed, high OBP, and other factors support that idea a lot, however, some numbers also back up the idea that he can thrive elsewhere.

    Pedey by slot:

          PA      BA     OBP/Slg      OPS

    1) 354    .253  .318/.375    .693

    2) 2768  .305  .374/.463   .837

    3) 354    .304  .356/.484   .840

    4) 139    .397  .442/.675 1.117

    Pedey has been a beast in the 4 slot in a pretty significant sample size, but Lord forbid we upset his fragile ego by moving him. (I'm not sure it upsets him, I just said that to counter rigid thinkers. I actually think Pedey's minset is more like a clean-up hitter than a #2 hitter, but that's neither here nor there...)

     

    I remember arguments with softy about Ellsbury's worse numbers in the 1 slot than elsewhere. I did not take the position that past numbers are the only mechanism for choosing future line-ups. I argued that Ells should bat 1st, while later on he even wanted CC 1st and Ells last or on the bench as a 4th OF'er. Jacoby's near even L/R splits is a very good reason for batting him 1st. His OBP was on the rise, and it's also nice to have power in the 1 slot for those late in the game "need-a-miracle moments when the bottom of the order is up.

    Keeping CC high in a line-up vs LHPs is sheer insanity. The harsh splits overcome any personal or "human aspect" in his case, but with others who have close splits, there's no need jerking them from one end of the line-up to the other. (I actually advocated benching CC vs most lefties.)

    I remember I wanted Papi up 4th and Manny 3rd, since Manny was better at getting on base, and Papi hit more HRs. I think Manny's numbers would have been even better than they were had he had Papi's protection, the opposite might have been true with a dip in Papi's numbers.

    Under my plan, players would know their roles, know my philosophy, and would know what they need to improve in to effect a change in their status.

     

     

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from Ice-Cream. Show Ice-Cream's posts

    Re: The Great Split Divide

     

    moonslav59 should replace Ben as the Red Sox GM.   :)

     

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedSoxKimmi. Show RedSoxKimmi's posts

    Re: The Great Split Divide

    We debated the importance of batting order last year, and the fact remains that batting order just doesn't make that much of a difference.  Even the grossest of errors, batting a pitcher in the #4 hole will cost a team about 15 runs over the course of a season.

    The difference between a traditional batting order and an optimal batting order is 1 game, maybe 2, over an entire season.  Yes, that 1 or 2 games might be the difference between making the playoffs or not, but the point is, switching a guy between the #2 and #7 slots based on who is pitching might be more detrimental from a psyche standpoint than it is beneficial.

    Managers are not likely to go with what is considered an optimal line up any time in the near future.  They would be crucified by the press, the fans, and by the players if they went with an optimal lineup, because optimal lineups go against conventional thinking.  So realistically, we are talking about 5 runs difference at most over the season in making these line up changes.

    It is more important to split up lefties, and probably more important for the line up to have some consistency and comfort.

     

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from BostonTrollSpanker. Show BostonTrollSpanker's posts

    Re: The Great Split Divide

    "moonslav59 should replace Ben as the Red Sox GM.   :)"

    Hmm well dunno if we can pull that off but how about getting Moon in to replace statswacko and nutjob Bill James? 

    I have no doubt we would do much better with Moon in that role. Plus Moon would have a direct line into the Sox from the BDC boards on an ongoing basis. Now that Theo has left no one avidly reads Softy's posts from inside the Red Sox organization anymore and we have to wait to get our feedback into the Sox via Softy's golf outings with Jim Rice...

    Moon as special advisor works!!!!

     
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