Re: The Great Split Divide
posted at 2/3/2013 11:42 AM EST
I agree. I'd have more than one lineup, but I wouldn't play around too much. One slot in the lineup is worth 18 PAs. If someone has a 100 point differential, then moving him down one slot saves that player maybe 3 points in OPS. That's just for context.
It's not just about extra PAs. It's also not just about splits vs LHPs and RHPs. It's about putting your best line-up out there each night in hopes that even a slight uptick in probability will help over the long season. We sure could have used just 1 more win in 2011.
I would only use the lineup for players that have really material discrepancies. Even in Moon's proposed lineup, is there really a material difference batting Vic #2 against lefties? You're giving him more ABs, but you are giving less ABs to the other hitters behind him. Assuming he retains his .881 against lefties, the average batter behind him for 6 slots has an average OPS v lefties of .860. 3 of the next 6 batters have a higher OPS v lefties than Vic. I don't think it is worth it.
You are discounting the fact that Pedey has much better numbers batting 3rd and 4th than 2nd by assuming his and others' OPS will remain at career overall numbers. Where's Pedey's "comfort level" keeping him up 2nd? It's a myth.
I agree, some players seek consistency and have bizzare superstitions. There may be some truth to the Crawford results after moving him from his "comfort zone", but I just can not see any reason to justify batting CC any higher than 7th vs LHPs on a team like the Sox, who almost always have a top 5 offense. With TB, even his sub .700 OPS vs LHPs was better than other options, so the argumnet to flip him there was moot.
My line-ups are not massive nightly overhauls. They are pretty much set vs LHPs and RHPs with very little movement, espeically of players who have narrow split differentials. Those with wide differentials would be talked to, reasoned with, and given the chance to move up in a line-up with improved split play, hot streaks, or cold streaks by others ahead of them.
Our past managers have had some bizzare line-up hang-ups. How many times did we sit a hot hitter? Slot inferior hitters up 3rd, 4th, 5th just to keep others in their "comfy slots" based on faulty data at times (see Pedey and the 2nd slot vs 3rd and 4th). How many times was the fixation of having a L-R-L... line-up absurdly manefested?
I'm not locked into Victorino up 2nd vs LHPs and 7th to 9th vs RHPs, but it does "lengthen the line-up" and place more OBP guys near the top and Slg% guys near the 5-6-7 slots. That's the basic philosophy that is pretty much followed by most managers in rigid and flexible systems. I'm not asking for extreme flexibility- just a little less rigidity.
Here might be a btter look at what to use as the most important framework for making out a line-up:
2011-2012 combined splits (Note: some sample sizes are too small to use):
OBP (near 1-2-3-4 slots)
v RHPs v LHPs
Ortiz .405 .404 (Needs to bat 3-4 vs both)
Nava .390 .280 (Should not be used vs LHPs if possible)
Naps .387 .316 (Has similar Slg% vs L/R, so 3-4 vs R/ 5-6 vs L)
Ells .365 .338 (His career numbers are closer differentials, so this maybe a fluke)
Gomez .356 .288 (Will be in AAA unless an injury)
Pedey .345 .424 (His career splits are closer differentials)
Ross .333 .320 (Close splits)
Drew .328 .278 (It could be argued that he should sit vs LHPs)
Vict .319 .410 (Clearly is a top OBP guy vs LHPs and should be 1-2-3 by these #s)
Gomes .318 .411 (An argument could be made to hit him 1-2-3-4 vs LHPs only)
Midd .312 .350 (Should flip up with Naps vs LHPs)
Ciriaco .312 .321 (Will be our sub)
Salty .301 .239 (Should avoid LHPs like the plague)
Lava .217 .254 (AAA)
Iggy .184 .250 (AAA)
Slg% ( near 3-4-5-6 slots)
Ortiz .572 .584 (He's my 3rd slot hitter vs L and R)
Gomez .572 .271 (AAA)
Naps .569 .563 (Bats 4th vs RHPs and 5th vs LHPs due to lower OBP v L)
Ellsb .521 .436 (Not a normal 1 slot numbers here, esp vs RHPs)
Ross .495 .362 (Better vs RHPs here, but Salty will start v RHPs)
Midd .486 .556 (See Naps flip)
Salty .481 .351 (Should bat 6th/7th vs RHPs and be on bench v LHPs)
Pedey .443 .510 (Career splits are closer- adjustment needed here)
Nava .414 .333 (Still not bad vs RHPs- will platoon withJ Gomes)
Vict .410 .587 (WOW! look at that Slg% vs LHPs! .997 OPS!)
Drew .386 .335 (Better vs RHPs)
Gomes .380 .530 (Needs to be as high in the line-up as possible v LHPs)
Chiri .367 .443 (Bench)
Lava .240 .373 (AAA)
Iggy .114 .333 (AAA)
By these numbers being weighed heavilty, on could see these line-ups as a template to work off of:
(Note: I am not advocating these line-ups, but this template could be used to tweak a little here and there. Career numbers and overall numbers are factors as well, along with other factors I mentioned earlier.)