The Great Split Divide

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from BosoxJoe5. Show BosoxJoe5's posts

    Re: The Great Split Divide

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to mef429's comment:

     

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

     

    I read a quote by Farrell that he plans to have Victorino hit #2 against LHP and Pedroia #2 against RHP.

     



    I like the sound of his flexibility. I wonder if he will put SV up 9th vs RHPs or maybe 7th.

     

     




    i wouldn't mind seeing him hit 9th against RHP. the numbers definitely warrant him being at the tail end of the order vs RHP. But having him 9th as opposed to 7th will allow us to get some speed on the basepaths head of jacoby. I want to see some double steal action.

     

     



    I agree, and had this same position when Crawford was here.

     

    I could see this...

     

      vs RHPs    vs LHPs

    1)        Ellsbury

    2) Pedey     Victorino         

    3) Napoli       Pedey       

    4)         Papi

    5) Midds       Napoli

    6) Salty         Midds

    7) Drew       Gomes

    8) Nava        Ross

    9) Victorino  Drew



    I don't see Nava breaking camp with this team. Swap him with Sweeney and I think you have a descent line other than the fact I believe stability in a line up is very important.

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: The Great Split Divide

    In response to BosoxJoe5's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    In response to mef429's comment:

     

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

     

    I read a quote by Farrell that he plans to have Victorino hit #2 against LHP and Pedroia #2 against RHP.

     



    I like the sound of his flexibility. I wonder if he will put SV up 9th vs RHPs or maybe 7th.

     

     




    i wouldn't mind seeing him hit 9th against RHP. the numbers definitely warrant him being at the tail end of the order vs RHP. But having him 9th as opposed to 7th will allow us to get some speed on the basepaths head of jacoby. I want to see some double steal action.

     

     



    I agree, and had this same position when Crawford was here.

     

    I could see this...

     

      vs RHPs    vs LHPs

    1)        Ellsbury

    2) Pedey     Victorino         

    3) Napoli       Pedey       

    4)         Papi

    5) Midds       Napoli

    6) Salty         Midds

    7) Drew       Gomes

    8) Nava        Ross

    9) Victorino  Drew

     



    I don't see Nava breaking camp with this team. Swap him with Sweeney and I think you have a descent line other than the fact I believe stability in a line up is very important.

     



    Sweeney's ability to play above average defense in CF and RF might give him the nod over Nava, but Nava does really well at getting on base vs RHPs. 

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from devildavid. Show devildavid's posts

    Re: The Great Split Divide

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    If even the best hitters fail over 60% of the time, how important are those extra at-bats?

     

    I understand that team want to optimize their chances by giving their best hitters the most at bats, but the difference seems negligible.

    The extra at-bats are probably more important to individual stats, than to the team's overall success.

    Last year, our leadoff hitters had 143 more PAs than our 9 slot hitters.

    That's huge!

    If Ellsbury repeats his 2011 season, it would make an immense difference between him hitting 1st or 9th.

    The difference between 3rd and 6th was 50 PAs.

    However, it is not all about PAs. It is about coming up with runners on base or not, as well as other factors like baserunning skills, hitting for contact and moving runners over, etc...

    The Tigers had one of the most set line-ups in 2012. here's how many PAs these hitters got with men on base (most at their normal batting slots listed here):

    3) Cabrera  333

    4) Fielder    340

    5) Young     288

    7) Perralta  265



    The general rule of having your best hitters toward the top of the lineup makes perfect sense. How they are arranged in these top 5 spots may be a matter of personal managerial philosophy. The more PA's the best hitters get, the more chances they will have to produce runs. This is over the long haul of a season.

    In each individual game, after the first inning, the batting order seems to me to become less and less important as the game progresses. The real trick is adjusting your lineup as the season progresses and you get a better idea out of who the best hitters are. A player who is not performing should accept being dropped in the order.

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedSoxKimmi. Show RedSoxKimmi's posts

    Re: The Great Split Divide

    In response to ThefourBs' comment:

    Sorry, I don't believe intelligent and attractive have to be mutually exclusive.


    If Kimmi has a problem with what I said and expresses it, I'll gladly apologize.

    If not, lighten up, Francis.

    FTR Kimmi doesn't have to be "encouraged" to be part of the "smart, analytical geek community".

    She already is...

    With or without your or my blessing.




    Thanks to you, Sonics, and Pike for your votes of confidence.  Anytime someone mentions my name and 'geek' in the same breath, I am extremely flattered.  ;-)

    FTR, I have not been offended by your posts, and also FTR, I appreciate when a man holds a door open for me.

     

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedSoxKimmi. Show RedSoxKimmi's posts

    Re: The Great Split Divide

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    Kimmi acts like the debate ended in a consensus that her position was the factual one. It did not by a long shot. There is and was supporting evidence on both sides of this issue.

    If you really believe that batting Ellsbury 9th in 2011 rather than 1st would have only made a 1-2 run difference, then I have some oceanfront property in Arizona...




    My apologies, Moon, if my post came across like that.  I know that the debate did not end in consensus.

    My position that batting orders do not make that much of a difference comes from the latest research that is available.  Probably the most notable is the extensive research done by Tom Tango and company and published in The Book.  Here is a link to an article that summarizes the findings pretty well:

    http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/3/17/795946/optimizing-your-lineup-by

     

    You can also find other synopses of such research in various articles at Fangraphs.

     

    I found this quote from The Book extremely interesting:

    "From the other manager’s point of view, this is why you should avoid having back-to-back lefties in your lineup. In fact, since exact lineup construction is never that important, it is rarely, if ever, correct to bat consecutive lefties in your batting order."

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from parhunter55. Show parhunter55's posts

    Re: The Great Split Divide

    Thanks for that link Kimmi,

    after reading the article two things strike me.  The first is, that splits will help you determine who is your best hitter against said pitcher.  the Book is not saying that optimizing your choices by utilizing an analysis of splits is unimportant, in fact, it assumes ou know who you're best hitter is (and that will depend on splits).  At least that is my take on it.

    The second thing is that this article supports exactly what I said earlier (but went completely without comment).  You should not use OPS to decide who hits in the #1, #2 or even #4 spots.  OBP is the better statistic.  You want your best OBP guys up top to avoid giving away outs.  You might have two guys with .800 OPS, where one has an OBP of .420 and slg pct of .380.  The second guy has an OBP of .320 and a slg pct of .480.  You want the first guy in the 1,2, or even 4 spot.  Not the second guy.  Save the second guy for 5 or 7 (the Book argues that #6 guy should have SB ability).

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: The Great Split Divide

    I found this quote from The Book extremely interesting:

    "From the other manager’s point of view, this is why you should avoid having back-to-back lefties in your lineup. In fact, since exact lineup construction is never that important, it is rarely, if ever, correct to bat consecutive lefties in your batting order."

    When you have lefties like Ellsbury, who has career splits almost the same, why should it matter? (Or Papi of late)

    If all things are close to even, then yeah, alternate L and R, but I think sometimes managers overdue the L-R-L thing.

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: The Great Split Divide

    In response to parhunter55's comment:

     

    Thanks for that link Kimmi,

    after reading the article two things strike me.  The first is, that splits will help you determine who is your best hitter against said pitcher.  the Book is not saying that optimizing your choices by utilizing an analysis of splits is unimportant, in fact, it assumes ou know who you're best hitter is (and that will depend on splits).  At least that is my take on it.

    The second thing is that this article supports exactly what I said earlier (but went completely without comment).  You should not use OPS to decide who hits in the #1, #2 or even #4 spots.  OBP is the better statistic.  You want your best OBP guys up top to avoid giving away outs.  You might have two guys with .800 OPS, where one has an OBP of .420 and slg pct of .380.  The second guy has an OBP of .320 and a slg pct of .480.  You want the first guy in the 1,2, or even 4 spot.  Not the second guy.  Save the second guy for 5 or 7 (the Book argues that #6 guy should have SB ability).

     



    Often times splits vs a particular pitcher are extremely small sample sizes. I prefer to use splits vs LHps/RHPs as the main criteria, but to also take into account which batters hit fastball, sinkerball, junkball, whatever type pitchers better or worse. Hot and cold streaks are also factors, and to some extent, park and day-night influences.

     

    My point is that trying to keep a pretty set line-up may have some advantages, but in many cases a few adjustments here and there are called for.

    I had a big debate with softy years ago when Papi was struggling vs LHPs. Before the season started, I named 7-8 LH'd starters that Papi had a history of poor performance against and suggested he bat 6th or 7th vs these starters, instead of 3rd (5th at best), or maybe even be given a rest here and there when facing these guys. I don't recall the exact numbers he ended up with that year, but his OPS was about .500 and he had just 1 HR vs those starters. (Of course, the next season he busted out vs LHPs, but we didn't really have any alternatives to him vs LHPs that year anyways.)

    There are some hitters who have really big splits. Every now and then they have a good year vs the pitching side they usually struggle against, but by and large, they repeat their past over and over again. 

    Our most extreme split hitters are:

            vs RHPs  vs LHPs  Diff

    Salty       .774   .591      .183  (Salty should rarely start vs LHPs)

    Ortiz       .972   .824      .148  (Papi seemingly has regained his skills vs LHPs)

    Nava       .768   .621     .147* (Nava should never start vs LHPs)

    Drew      .784   .699      .085  (Won't be platooned, but maybe should be.)

    Napoli    .845   .911    -.066  (Hits well enough vs RHPs)

    Middlbrk .798  .906    -.108* (small sample size)

    Victorino .730  .881    -.151  (One would hope we can find better.)

    J Gomes  .732  .894   -.162  (This guy's D makes a platoon more desirable.)

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: The Great Split Divide

    In response to devildavid's comment:

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

     


    What you and moon are saying makes perfect sense.  OTOH I do think the psyche of a major league hitter is probably a somewhat fragile thing.  I remember when Ellsbury was injured a few years ago and they tried Pedroia at leadoff and he did terribly.  He said it totally messed up his head and his approach.  Like I say what you and moon makes sense but if Pedroia says there's a big psychological difference who am I to argue with him? 

     



    Players are human beings. They are not just walking bundles of statistics. They came to those numbers doing things a certain way. To assume they will come to the same numbers in a different way may or may not be true. I think numbers guys underestimate the human factor.

     



    I agree.  I'd have more than one lineup, but I wouldn't play around too much.  One slot in the lineup is worth 18 PAs.  If someone has a 100 point differential, then moving him down one slot saves that player maybe 3 points in OPS.  That's just for context.

    I would only use the lineup for players that have really material discrepancies.  Even in Moon's proposed lineup, is there really a material difference batting Vic #2 against lefties?  You're giving him more ABs, but you are giving less ABs to the other hitters behind him.  Assuming he retains his .881 against lefties, the average batter behind him for 6 slots has an average OPS v lefties of .860.  3 of the next 6 batters have a higher OPS v lefties than Vic.  I don't think it is worth it.

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: The Great Split Divide

    In response to SonicsMonksLyresVicars' comment:

    "Yup, thus spoke Kimmi.....Must be indisputable fact"

    "I bet she's hot too. LOL!"

    --------------------------------

    I have a mother....the only mother in my middle class neighborhood that worked when I grew up.  I have four sisters, all of whom would smack me in the head if I patronised them by holding a door open for them BECAUSE they were female......my {extremely polite, IMHO} children have been taught to give no EXTRA respect to the elderly, the female, the pregnant, the handicapped, or the Stiffian.....you either behave well and give respect to all, or you don't....everyone starts with equal, maximum respect and can only lose it through bad behaviour.  Being old or pregnant doesn't give you a free pass to be mean.

    --------------------------------

    Kimmi should be encouraged to be part of the smart, analytical geek community rather than be subjected to smarmy "is she hot" bullsh1t.

    On the other hand, every time I see Notin's avatar I can't help but think Moe is looking at me.....

    ;-)



    1-If I spend 2 hours analyzing an issue, and Kimmi disagrees, I start off with the presumption that I am wrong.  I will occasionally continue to disagree, but I virtually never disagree in a material way where I have 100% confidence of my position.

    2-One of my wife's friends always says that the Brady boys are always polite and always gentlemen.  My kids will always hold the door for the person behind them.

    3-But I disagree on the elderly thing.  Treating the elderly with respect and honor sets the direction for a society.  If we have a family party, the first person my kids should greet is my mom, not me, not my wife, not the aunts and uncles or cousins.  This lays the groundwork for respecting their teachers, the pastor, and their future bosses.

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: The Great Split Divide

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    Yup, thus spoke Kimmi.

     

    Must be indisputable fact.

     




    So, dispute it...

     

    I did back then.

    Kimmi acts like the debate ended in a consensus that her position was the factual one. It did not by a long shot. There is and was supporting evidence on both sides of this issue.

    If you really believe that batting Ellsbury 9th in 2011 rather than 1st would have only made a 1-2 run difference, then I have some oceanfront property in Arizona...



    The 2011 RS had a team OPS of .810, while Ellsbury had an OPS .928.  The #1 slot received 141 more PAs than the #9 slot.  The team had 6414 PAs.  The difference between Ellds and the average OPS (.118) for 141 PAs, relative to a team total of 6414, worsens the team OPS by 2.59 points.

    Just taking an extremely small example, how many HRs would the team have hit if you flipped Ells and Pedey?  Even using a normalized 18 PAs, then the difference is 18/731*(32-21), or .25 more HRs, increaing the team total from 203 to 203.25.

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from SonicsMonksLyresVicars. Show SonicsMonksLyresVicars's posts

    Re: The Great Split Divide

    In response to RedSoxKimmi's comment:

    We debated the importance of batting order last year, and the fact remains that batting order just doesn't make that much of a difference.  Even the grossest of errors, batting a pitcher in the #4 hole will cost a team about 15 runs over the course of a season.

    The difference between a traditional batting order and an optimal batting order is 1 game, maybe 2, over an entire season.  Yes, that 1 or 2 games might be the difference between making the playoffs or not, but the point is, switching a guy between the #2 and #7 slots based on who is pitching might be more detrimental from a psyche standpoint than it is beneficial.

     



    I agree with that, but also it's not just as simple as changing a number.  For example, if you're batting 7th it's pretty likely the guys on base when you're up aren't trying to steal bases which might be distracting e.g. throws over to first.  And if you bat 2nd you might be pitched differently e.g. more fastballs if the leadoff guy is trying to steal.  In the NL or interleague games if you're batting 8th there's a black hole up next which adds a bit of pressure if there's 2 out and men on.  And so on.  These guys aren't robots, and, further, a lot are creatures of habit and some even superstitious.  A big part of a manager's job is to get them comfortable so they can perform their best. 

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from carnie. Show carnie's posts

    Re: The Great Split Divide

    In response to SonicsMonksLyresVicars' comment:

    In response to RedSoxKimmi's comment:

     

    We debated the importance of batting order last year, and the fact remains that batting order just doesn't make that much of a difference.  Even the grossest of errors, batting a pitcher in the #4 hole will cost a team about 15 runs over the course of a season.

    The difference between a traditional batting order and an optimal batting order is 1 game, maybe 2, over an entire season.  Yes, that 1 or 2 games might be the difference between making the playoffs or not, but the point is, switching a guy between the #2 and #7 slots based on who is pitching might be more detrimental from a psyche standpoint than it is beneficial.

     

     



    I agree with that, but also it's not just as simple as changing a number.  For example, if you're batting 7th it's pretty likely the guys on base when you're up aren't trying to steal bases which might be distracting e.g. throws over to first.  And if you bat 2nd you might be pitched differently e.g. more fastballs if the leadoff guy is trying to steal.  In the NL or interleague games if you're batting 8th there's a black hole up next which adds a bit of pressure if there's 2 out and men on.  And so on.  These guys aren't robots, and, further, a lot are creatures of habit and some even superstitious.  A big part of a manager's job is to get them comfortable so they can perform their best. 

     




    +1

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: The Great Split Divide

    And getting back to the original post, assuming Gomes/Nava and Ross/Salty are strictly platooned, that makes our OPS against righties .811 and against lefties it is .833.  That doesn't strike me as material.

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: The Great Split Divide

    I agree.  I'd have more than one lineup, but I wouldn't play around too much.  One slot in the lineup is worth 18 PAs.  If someone has a 100 point differential, then moving him down one slot saves that player maybe 3 points in OPS.  That's just for context.

     

    It's not just about extra PAs. It's also not just about splits vs LHPs and RHPs.  It's about putting your best line-up out there each night in hopes that even a slight uptick in probability will help over the long season. We sure could have used just 1 more win in 2011.

    I would only use the lineup for players that have really material discrepancies.  Even in Moon's proposed lineup, is there really a material difference batting Vic #2 against lefties?  You're giving him more ABs, but you are giving less ABs to the other hitters behind him.  Assuming he retains his .881 against lefties, the average batter behind him for 6 slots has an average OPS v lefties of .860.  3 of the next 6 batters have a higher OPS v lefties than Vic.  I don't think it is worth it.

    You are discounting the fact that Pedey has much better numbers batting 3rd and 4th than 2nd by assuming his and others' OPS will remain at career overall numbers. Where's Pedey's "comfort level" keeping him up 2nd? It's a myth.

    I agree, some players seek consistency and have bizzare superstitions. There may be some truth to the Crawford results after moving him from his "comfort zone", but I just can not see any reason to justify batting CC any higher than 7th vs LHPs on a team like the Sox, who almost always have a top 5 offense. With TB, even his sub .700 OPS vs LHPs was better than other options, so the argumnet to flip him there was moot.

    My line-ups are not massive nightly overhauls. They are pretty much set vs LHPs and RHPs with very little movement, espeically of players who have narrow split differentials. Those with wide differentials would be talked to, reasoned with, and given the chance to move up in a line-up with improved split play, hot streaks, or cold streaks by others ahead of them.

    Our past managers have had some bizzare line-up hang-ups. How many times did we sit a hot hitter? Slot inferior hitters up 3rd, 4th, 5th just to keep others in their "comfy slots" based on faulty data at times (see Pedey and the 2nd slot vs 3rd and 4th). How many times was the fixation of having a L-R-L... line-up absurdly manefested?

    I'm not locked into Victorino up 2nd vs LHPs and 7th to 9th vs RHPs, but it does "lengthen the line-up" and place more OBP guys near the top and Slg% guys near the 5-6-7 slots. That's the basic philosophy that is pretty much followed by most managers in rigid and flexible systems. I'm not asking for extreme flexibility- just a little less rigidity.

    Here might be a btter look at what to use as the most important framework for making out a line-up:

    2011-2012 combined splits (Note: some sample sizes are too small to use):

    OBP (near 1-2-3-4 slots)

              v RHPs  v LHPs

    Ortiz  .405     .404    (Needs to bat 3-4 vs both)

    Nava  .390    .280    (Should not be used vs LHPs if possible)

    Naps  .387   .316     (Has similar Slg% vs L/R, so 3-4 vs R/ 5-6 vs L)

    Ells    .365     .338    (His career numbers are closer differentials, so this maybe a fluke)

    Gomez .356  .288   (Will be in AAA unless an injury)

    Pedey  .345   .424  (His career splits are closer differentials)

    Ross    .333   .320  (Close splits)

    Drew   .328    .278  (It could be argued that he should sit vs LHPs)

    Vict      .319    .410  (Clearly is a top OBP guy vs LHPs and should be 1-2-3 by these #s)

    Gomes .318   .411  (An argument could be made to hit him 1-2-3-4 vs LHPs only)

    Midd    .312   .350   (Should flip up with Naps vs LHPs)

    Ciriaco .312  .321  (Will be our sub)

    Salty    .301   .239  (Should avoid LHPs like the plague)

    Lava    .217   .254  (AAA)

    Iggy     .184   .250  (AAA)

     

    Slg% ( near 3-4-5-6 slots)

    Ortiz     .572   .584  (He's my 3rd slot hitter vs L and R)

    Gomez .572     .271 (AAA)

    Naps    .569    .563  (Bats 4th vs RHPs and 5th vs LHPs due to lower OBP v L)

    Ellsb     .521   .436  (Not a normal 1 slot numbers here, esp vs RHPs)

    Ross    .495   .362  (Better vs RHPs here, but Salty will start v RHPs)

    Midd    .486   .556   (See Naps flip)

    Salty   .481    .351  (Should bat 6th/7th vs RHPs and be on bench v LHPs)

    Pedey  .443  .510  (Career splits are closer- adjustment needed here)

    Nava    .414  .333  (Still not bad vs RHPs- will platoon withJ  Gomes)

    Vict     .410    .587 (WOW! look at that Slg% vs LHPs! .997 OPS!)

    Drew    .386  .335 (Better vs RHPs)

    Gomes  .380 .530 (Needs to be as high in the line-up as possible v LHPs)

    Chiri   .367    .443  (Bench)

    Lava  .240    .373  (AAA)

    Iggy   .114    .333  (AAA)

     

    By these numbers being weighed heavilty, on could see these line-ups as a template to work off of:

    (Note: I am not advocating these line-ups, but this template could be used to tweak a little here and there. Career numbers and overall numbers are factors as well, along with other factors I mentioned earlier.)

    vs RHPs

    1) Ells

    2) Nava

    3) Papi

    4) Naps

    5) Pedey

    6) Salty

    7) Midd

    8) Drew

    9) Vict

     

    vs LHPs

    1) Vict

    2) Gomes

    3) Papi

    4) Pedey

    5) Midd

    6) Naps

    7) Ellsb

    8) Drew

    9) Ross

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: The Great Split Divide

    It's not just about extra PAs. It's also not just about splits vs LHPs and RHPs.  It's about putting your best line-up out there each night in hopes that even a slight uptick in probability will help over the long season. We sure could have used just 1 more win in 2011.

    You could always use one more win, but is not at all clear that changing the lineup for every matchup is advantageous.  At its natural conclusion, Papi has a .330 OPS against Saunders, .456 v Colon, .472 against Jason Johnson.  Do we just create a batting order based on H2H success, assuming we have a sufficient sample?

    You are discounting the fact that Pedey has much better numbers batting 3rd and 4th than 2nd by assuming his and others' OPS will remain at career overall numbers. Where's Pedey's "comfort level" keeping him up 2nd? It's a myth.

    You don't have enough of a sample size for Pedey.  More important then 2/3/4 is the fact that he likes going the other way.  With Ells being held on, it is a significant advantage to having someone in the lineup batting 2nd that likes going to RF.

    I agree, some players seek consistency and have bizzare superstitions. 

    It is a superstition that is probably shared by virtually everyone in the world.  You have to accomplish x, y, and z during the day, but I doubt I know even a single person that wants events chosen at random.  Like I said, I can understand when you have a huge split differential, but even then, that usually suggests a platoon instead different lineups.

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: The Great Split Divide

    It's not just about extra PAs. It's also not just about splits vs LHPs and RHPs.  It's about putting your best line-up out there each night in hopes that even a slight uptick in probability will help over the long season. We sure could have used just 1 more win in 2011.

    You could always use one more win, but is not at all clear that changing the lineup for every matchup is advantageous.  At its natural conclusion, Papi has a .330 OPS against Saunders, .456 v Colon, .472 against Jason Johnson.  Do we just create a batting order based on H2H success, assuming we have a sufficient sample?

    It's debateable what a large enough sample size is, but as a manager, I'd use some kind of combination of many numbers to use as a quide- not a set-in-stone template. For example, I'd use career splits vs L/R, plus splits of the last 2-3 years, plus splits vs that particular pitcher (weighted less with smaller sample sizes- if small, I'd also use numbers vs like type SPs), plus last 5-10 game numbers, and maybe even more factors then divide by the number total and the resulting number, if significantly different, maybe move the guy a slot or two up or down from my inital template.

     

    You are discounting the fact that Pedey has much better numbers batting 3rd and 4th than 2nd by assuming his and others' OPS will remain at career overall numbers. Where's Pedey's "comfort level" keeping him up 2nd? It's a myth.

    You don't have enough of a sample size for Pedey.  More important then 2/3/4 is the fact that he likes going the other way.  With Ells being held on, it is a significant advantage to having someone in the lineup batting 2nd that likes going to RF.

    I wouldn't call nearly 500 PAs insignificant. (493 PAs batting 3rd or 4th). I'm not saying Pedey will automatically thrive batting 3/4th, but my point was to show that there is no evidence to show that Pedey is "uncomfortable" anywhere but 2nd. 493 PAs say otherwise:

    PA 493  AB 448  H 148

    BA  .330

    2B+3B  35

    HR 18

    RBI 69

    OBP: .380 (slightly better than his career overall .374 OBP)

    SLG  .547  (.133 higher than his overall SLG%) 

     

    Here are his 162 game pro-rated stats:

    2nd (744 PA)  .305/.374/.463/.837  HR 17  RBI 80

    3rd  (699 PA) .304/.356/.484/.840  HR 21  RBI 79

    4th  (703 PA) .397/.442/.675/1.117 HR 35  RBI 146

     

    I agree, some players seek consistency and have bizzare superstitions. 

    It is a superstition that is probably shared by virtually everyone in the world.  You have to accomplish x, y, and z during the day, but I doubt I know even a single person that wants events chosen at random.  Like I said, I can understand when you have a huge split differential, but even then, that usually suggests a platoon instead different lineups.

    I seriously doubt that moving a guy from the 4 slot to the 5th slot vs a LHPs is going to throw most players out of whack. I also doubt many players even think about it that much. I guess is Victorino freaks out batting 8th or 9th vs RHPs, then we'll deal with that when it happens. Shane is about the only guy who I see moving to a radically different slot that he may be accustomed too. Gomes has been a platoon player for a while. Drew does not have a comfort slot that I know of. He's been jerked all over. Pedey does well in the 3/4 slot. Naps has been moved a lot. Salty sat vs most LHPs last year. He sat vs both for many years before that. Papi may prefer to bat 4th over 3rd, and I could see using Naps 3rd vs RHPs, but noit LHPs. We'll have to give Middlebrooks a longer look to decide there. Ellsbury has been pretty even vs LHPs and RHPs until 2011, so he needs watching closely to see if a trend is developing towards larger splits. Also, if he shows big power like 2011 and diminished SB skills, then moving him down from the 1 slot might make sense, particularly vs LHPs.

    And yes, I am talking some radical split differentials with some of these guys like Salty, Victorino, Gomes, Nava and to some extent Papi, Naps, Drew and Midd (small sample size noted).

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: The Great Split Divide

    And yes, I am talking some radical split differentials with some of these guys like Salty, Victorino, Gomes, Nava and to some extent Papi, Naps, Drew and Midd (small sample size noted).

    Salty, Gomes, and Nava are straight platoon situations, or should be.  The difference between flipping Papi and Napoli is de minimus.  And there really isn't a compelling reason to move Victorino up to 2nd, since he would be hitting ahead of players with better OPS' against lefties, and Drew should always be 8th or 9th with this lineup.

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from carnie. Show carnie's posts

    Re: The Great Split Divide

    I'd just go with an everyday lineup of

    Ells

    Pedey

    Ortiz

    Napoli

    Gomes/Nava/Sweeney

    Middlebrooks

    Victorino

    Salty/Ross

    Drew

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedSoxKimmi. Show RedSoxKimmi's posts

    Re: The Great Split Divide

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    When you have lefties like Ellsbury, who has career splits almost the same, why should it matter? (Or Papi of late)

    If all things are close to even, then yeah, alternate L and R, but I think sometimes managers overdue the L-R-L thing.




    Apparently, it is more beneficial in terms of run production to not allow an opposing team's LOOGY to face consecutive LH hitters than it is detrimental to move a weaker hitting RH up a slot or 2 to separate lefties.   Even if their career splits are nearly the same, it's very likely that they wouldn't have as much success against tough LOOGYs.

     

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedSoxKimmi. Show RedSoxKimmi's posts

    Re: The Great Split Divide

    In response to parhunter55's comment:

    The second thing is that this article supports exactly what I said earlier (but went completely without comment).  You should not use OPS to decide who hits in the #1, #2 or even #4 spots.  OBP is the better statistic.  You want your best OBP guys up top to avoid giving away outs.  You might have two guys with .800 OPS, where one has an OBP of .420 and slg pct of .380.  The second guy has an OBP of .320 and a slg pct of .480.  You want the first guy in the 1,2, or even 4 spot.  Not the second guy.  Save the second guy for 5 or 7 (the Book argues that #6 guy should have SB ability).



    I agree, you should look at both components of OPS, with OBP being the more important component for the top of the line up.  IMO, though I often use and like OPS, it's a flawed stat because OBP and SLG should not be weighted equally to begin with.

     

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from SonicsMonksLyresVicars. Show SonicsMonksLyresVicars's posts

    Re: The Great Split Divide

    In response to carnie's comment:

    I'd just go with an everyday lineup of

    Ells

    Pedey

    Ortiz

    Napoli

    Gomes/Nava/Sweeney

    Middlebrooks

    Victorino

    Salty/Ross

    Drew




    I agree with the principle of a standard order, certainly for the top 4.  Among the remaining 5 maybe a bit of tactical shifting based on platoons, platoon splits, etc.  If Salty is in one of his hot streak I'd probably bat him 5th/6th against lefties.....

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedSoxKimmi. Show RedSoxKimmi's posts

    Re: The Great Split Divide

    In response to Joebreidey's comment:


    1-If I spend 2 hours analyzing an issue, and Kimmi disagrees, I start off with the presumption that I am wrong.  I will occasionally continue to disagree, but I virtually never disagree in a material way where I have 100% confidence of my position.



    You're too sweet Joey.  You know you are tops in my book, both in terms of your baseball knowledge and insight, and in terms of your sense of humor.  I almost always agree with your posts.

    I agree about respecting your elders too.

     

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedSoxKimmi. Show RedSoxKimmi's posts

    Re: The Great Split Divide

    In response to SonicsMonksLyresVicars' comment:


    I agree with that, but also it's not just as simple as changing a number.  For example, if you're batting 7th it's pretty likely the guys on base when you're up aren't trying to steal bases which might be distracting e.g. throws over to first.  And if you bat 2nd you might be pitched differently e.g. more fastballs if the leadoff guy is trying to steal.  In the NL or interleague games if you're batting 8th there's a black hole up next which adds a bit of pressure if there's 2 out and men on.  And so on.  These guys aren't robots, and, further, a lot are creatures of habit and some even superstitious.  A big part of a manager's job is to get them comfortable so they can perform their best. 




    Well said Sonics.  Also, when you change spots in the line up, you may strengthen one spot, but in doing so it weakens another.  They talk about the line up being a continuous loop.  After the first inning, the lead off guy usually isn't the lead off guy anymore.  Any benefit that you might get from moving a guy with good splits up to the #2 hole becomes negligible due to other counter effects.

     

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: The Great Split Divide

    In response to Joebreidey's comment:

    And yes, I am talking some radical split differentials with some of these guys like Salty, Victorino, Gomes, Nava and to some extent Papi, Naps, Drew and Midd (small sample size noted).

    Salty, Gomes, and Nava are straight platoon situations, or should be.  The difference between flipping Papi and Napoli is de minimus.  And there really isn't a compelling reason to move Victorino up to 2nd, since he would be hitting ahead of players with better OPS' against lefties, and Drew should always be 8th or 9th with this lineup.



    Victorino and Gomes have 2 of the best OBPs of any player on our team over the last 2-3 years. When setting your top 2 hitters, OBP is way more important than SLG or OPS. 

    Even if you go by OPS, SV has a .997 OPS vs LHPs the past 2 years combined. That deserves a move up to somewhere higher. Gomes is over .930 vs LHPs the last 2 years. Their recent OBPs vs LHPs is 50-100 points better than some of the guys ahead of them in the "traditional line-ups".

     Burying both of these guys vs LHPs  at 7, 8 or 9 is criminal.

    Nava vs RHPs brings up similar arguments, but he seems to be very streaky, so much might depend on how hot he seems to be.

    The Papi/Naps swap is a close call. I can see your point here, and wouldn't argue about flipping them or not, but I do think Naps should be dropped a bit vs LHPs, while Papi can stay at #3 nearly evryday he is not resting.

     
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