The Great Split Divide

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedSoxKimmi. Show RedSoxKimmi's posts

    Re: The Great Split Divide

    In response to SonicsMonksLyresVicars' comment:


    I agree with that, but also it's not just as simple as changing a number.  For example, if you're batting 7th it's pretty likely the guys on base when you're up aren't trying to steal bases which might be distracting e.g. throws over to first.  And if you bat 2nd you might be pitched differently e.g. more fastballs if the leadoff guy is trying to steal.  In the NL or interleague games if you're batting 8th there's a black hole up next which adds a bit of pressure if there's 2 out and men on.  And so on.  These guys aren't robots, and, further, a lot are creatures of habit and some even superstitious.  A big part of a manager's job is to get them comfortable so they can perform their best. 




    Well said Sonics.  Also, when you change spots in the line up, you may strengthen one spot, but in doing so it weakens another.  They talk about the line up being a continuous loop.  After the first inning, the lead off guy usually isn't the lead off guy anymore.  Any benefit that you might get from moving a guy with good splits up to the #2 hole becomes negligible due to other counter effects.

     

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: The Great Split Divide

    In response to Joebreidey's comment:

    And yes, I am talking some radical split differentials with some of these guys like Salty, Victorino, Gomes, Nava and to some extent Papi, Naps, Drew and Midd (small sample size noted).

    Salty, Gomes, and Nava are straight platoon situations, or should be.  The difference between flipping Papi and Napoli is de minimus.  And there really isn't a compelling reason to move Victorino up to 2nd, since he would be hitting ahead of players with better OPS' against lefties, and Drew should always be 8th or 9th with this lineup.



    Victorino and Gomes have 2 of the best OBPs of any player on our team over the last 2-3 years. When setting your top 2 hitters, OBP is way more important than SLG or OPS. 

    Even if you go by OPS, SV has a .997 OPS vs LHPs the past 2 years combined. That deserves a move up to somewhere higher. Gomes is over .930 vs LHPs the last 2 years. Their recent OBPs vs LHPs is 50-100 points better than some of the guys ahead of them in the "traditional line-ups".

     Burying both of these guys vs LHPs  at 7, 8 or 9 is criminal.

    Nava vs RHPs brings up similar arguments, but he seems to be very streaky, so much might depend on how hot he seems to be.

    The Papi/Naps swap is a close call. I can see your point here, and wouldn't argue about flipping them or not, but I do think Naps should be dropped a bit vs LHPs, while Papi can stay at #3 nearly evryday he is not resting.

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: The Great Split Divide

    When you have lefties like Ellsbury, who has career splits almost the same, why should it matter? (Or Papi of late)

    If all things are close to even, then yeah, alternate L and R, but I think sometimes managers overdue the L-R-L thing.

     




    Apparently, it is more beneficial in terms of run production to not allow an opposing team's LOOGY to face consecutive LH hitters than it is detrimental to move a weaker hitting RH up a slot or 2 to separate lefties.   Even if their career splits are nearly the same, it's very likely that they wouldn't have as much success against tough LOOGYs.

    With all due respect, I totally diagree with this philosophy.

    1) If certain hitters are just as good vs LHPs and RHPs, the effect is lost. The numbers backing up this theory are based on average splits of players and not guys like Ellsbury and the Papi of late.

    2) Even if everything you say is true, we might be talking about 1 PA every 10-20, while the other 9-19 are in a better position to get on base or knock in a run than the next guy.

    3) I don't buy the idea that 1 PA in the 7th, 8th, or 9th is more important than 3-4 during other parts of the game.

     

    If all things are close, then yes, alternate L-R-L for this reason, but it should not over-ride clear differentials on splits. BTW, my line-ups are pretty staggered L-R anyways.

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from georom4. Show georom4's posts

    Re: The Great Split Divide

    i like moon's approach for putting a lineup together numbers 1-9 but i would not jump players around simply based on splits...i think players do need a comfort zone and if they are a #2 hitter, then their job is to make contact...3 is to drive in runs and so on - these are the roles for the most part and they need to be clear....variations of this are Ok but same the big moves for pinch hitters...and that means keeping a starter on his day off to bat when needed...

     

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: The Great Split Divide

    I agree with that, but also it's not just as simple as changing a number.  For example, if you're batting 7th it's pretty likely the guys on base when you're up aren't trying to steal bases which might be distracting e.g. throws over to first.  And if you bat 2nd you might be pitched differently e.g. more fastballs if the leadoff guy is trying to steal.  In the NL or interleague games if you're batting 8th there's a black hole up next which adds a bit of pressure if there's 2 out and men on.  And so on.  These guys aren't robots, and, further, a lot are creatures of habit and some even superstitious.  A big part of a manager's job is to get them comfortable so they can perform their best. 

     




    Well said Sonics.  Also, when you change spots in the line up, you may strengthen one spot, but in doing so it weakens another.  They talk about the line up being a continuous loop.  After the first inning, the lead off guy usually isn't the lead off guy anymore.  Any benefit that you might get from moving a guy with good splits up to the #2 hole becomes negligible due to other counter effects.

     

     

    [/QUOTE]

    While the leadoff hitter may not lead off an inning after the 1st, you still want your OBP guys up right in front of your big sluggers throughout the rest of the game.

    Let's take the example of moving Victorino up from 9th to 2nd vs LHPs and Pedey from 2nd to 4th, Naps from 4th to 5th and everyone else pretty much the same, except for the platoon positions of C and LF.

    You might weaken the 9 slot, but improve the 2 slot immensely while giving SV many more PAs as the differential between the 2 and 9 slot vs LH'd starters might be 30-45 more PAs over a season. Very significant

        

    vs RHPs   OBP '11-12  SLG11-12  Career OPS

    1) L Ellsbury  .365/       .521/     .803

    2) R Pedey     .345/       .443/     .821

    3) L Ortiz       .405/       .572/    .972

    4) R Napoli    .387/       .569/    .845

    5) S Nava      .390/       .414/    .768

    6) R Midd       .312/      .486/     .798

    7) S Salty      .301/       .481/      .774

    8) L Drew       .328/      .386/      .784

    9) R Victorino  .319/    .410/      .730

    Notes:

    1) As you can see, we are much worse vs RHPs than LHPs. Any line-up adjustment that helps can make a big difference in these games.

    2) One could argue moving Nava to the 1 or 2 slot if he can keep up his .390 OBP-- 2nd best on the team over the last 2 years!

    3) This line-up is a perfect L-R-L set up with the switch hitters helping.

    vs LHPs

    1) L Ellsbury  .338/       .436/      .762

    2) R Victorino .410/      .587/      .881

    3) L Ortiz       .404/       .584/      .824

    4) R Pedroia  .424/       .510/      .853

    5) R Napoli    .316/       .563/      .911

    6) L Gomes   .411/        .530/      .894

    7) R Midd      .350/        .556/      .906

    8) R D Ross   .320/        .362/     .784

    9) L Drew      .278/       .335/      .699

    Notes:

    1) Wow! The 2-7 hitters have all had SLG%s higher than .500 over the last 2 years! We should kill lefties this year.

    2) One could argue that leaving Pedey 2nd and putting Victorino 4th or 5th vs LHPs makes more sense, but I like his speed more than Pedey's.

    3) The 2 year numbers argue to move Ellsbury down and Gomes up, but Ellsbury has been pretty good vs LHPs upo to 2011.

    4) My guess is Naps' OBP vs LHPs the last 2 years is a fluke. 

    5) No 2 lefties in a row, so LOOGY Go Home!

     

    I could go with this vs LHPs after watching 2013 trends:

    1) L Gomes

    2) R Pedey

    3) L Papi

    4) R Napoli

    5) S Victorino

    6) R Midd

    7) L Ells

    8) R Ross

    9) L Drew/Ciriaco

    (Again, a perfect L-R set up without even trying to do it.)

     

     

     

     

     

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: The Great Split Divide

    In response to georom4's comment:

    i like moon's approach for putting a lineup together numbers 1-9 but i would not jump players around simply based on splits...i think players do need a comfort zone and if they are a #2 hitter, then their job is to make contact...3 is to drive in runs and so on - these are the roles for the most part and they need to be clear....variations of this are Ok but same the big moves for pinch hitters...and that means keeping a starter on his day off to bat when needed...

     



    The thing is Pedey is a bit of an anomaly. He gets on base, but he doesn't seem to change his approach of swinging hard for the fences like a clean-up hitter.

    There is actually evidence to the contrary for Pedey. He does better hitting 4th.

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: The Great Split Divide

    More splits: (2012)

    vs RHBs (90+ PAs) OPS against

    ***Uehara   .369 (in 59 PAs)***

    Tazawa   .583

    Aceves  .677

    Mortnsn .714

    Dempst  .742

    Buch      .751

    Doubr    .781

    Lester    .785

    Morales .788

    Bard      .913

     

    vs LHBs (65+ PAs)

    Miller       .429

    Morales   .490

    Tazawa   .519

    Uehara    .545

    Dempst   .618

    Mortnsn  .660

    Lester     .738

    Doubr     .760

    Buch       .761

    Bard       .803

    Aceves   .814

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: The Great Split Divide

    Looks like our pen has some nice splits...

     

    vs RHBs  OPS against

    Uehara     .369 

    Tazawa   .583

    Aceves    .677

    Mortnsn   .714

    ***Hanrahan  .236 BA against (could not find OPS against)

     

     

    vs LHBs (65+ PAs)

    Miller       .429

    Morales   .490

    Tazawa   .519

    Uehara    .545

    *** Hanrahan .131 BA against (could not find OPS)

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: The Great Split Divide

    :)

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: The Great Split Divide

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    I agree with that, but also it's not just as simple as changing a number.  For example, if you're batting 7th it's pretty likely the guys on base when you're up aren't trying to steal bases which might be distracting e.g. throws over to first.  And if you bat 2nd you might be pitched differently e.g. more fastballs if the leadoff guy is trying to steal.  In the NL or interleague games if you're batting 8th there's a black hole up next which adds a bit of pressure if there's 2 out and men on.  And so on.  These guys aren't robots, and, further, a lot are creatures of habit and some even superstitious.  A big part of a manager's job is to get them comfortable so they can perform their best. 

     




    Well said Sonics.  Also, when you change spots in the line up, you may strengthen one spot, but in doing so it weakens another.  They talk about the line up being a continuous loop.  After the first inning, the lead off guy usually isn't the lead off guy anymore.  Any benefit that you might get from moving a guy with good splits up to the #2 hole becomes negligible due to other counter effects.

     

     



    While the leadoff hitter may not lead off an inning after the 1st, you still want your OBP guys up right in front of your big sluggers throughout the rest of the game.

    Let's take the example of moving Victorino up from 9th to 2nd vs LHPs and Pedey from 2nd to 4th, Naps from 4th to 5th and everyone else pretty much the same, except for the platoon positions of C and LF.

    You might weaken the 9 slot, but improve the 2 slot immensely while giving SV many more PAs as the differential between the 2 and 9 slot vs LH'd starters might be 30-45 more PAs over a season. Very significant

        

    vs RHPs   OBP '11-12  SLG11-12  Career OPS

    1) L Ellsbury  .365/       .521/     .803

    2) R Pedey     .345/       .443/     .821

    3) L Ortiz       .405/       .572/    .972

    4) R Napoli    .387/       .569/    .845

    5) S Nava      .390/       .414/    .768

    6) R Midd       .312/      .486/     .798

    7) S Salty      .301/       .481/      .774

    8) L Drew       .328/      .386/      .784

    9) R Victorino  .319/    .410/      .730

    Notes:

    1) As you can see, we are much worse vs RHPs than LHPs. Any line-up adjustment that helps can make a big difference in these games.

    2) One could argue moving Nava to the 1 or 2 slot if he can keep up his .390 OBP-- 2nd best on the team over the last 2 years!

    3) This line-up is a perfect L-R-L set up with the switch hitters helping.

    vs LHPs

    1) L Ellsbury  .338/       .436/      .762

    2) R Victorino .410/      .587/      .881

    3) L Ortiz       .404/       .584/      .824

    4) R Pedroia  .424/       .510/      .853

    5) R Napoli    .316/       .563/      .911

    6) L Gomes   .411/        .530/      .894

    7) R Midd      .350/        .556/      .906

    8) R D Ross   .320/        .362/     .784

    9) L Drew      .278/       .335/      .699

    Notes:

    1) Wow! The 2-7 hitters have all had SLG%s higher than .500 over the last 2 years! We should kill lefties this year.

    2) One could argue that leaving Pedey 2nd and putting Victorino 4th or 5th vs LHPs makes more sense, but I like his speed more than Pedey's.

    3) The 2 year numbers argue to move Ellsbury down and Gomes up, but Ellsbury has been pretty good vs LHPs upo to 2011.

    4) My guess is Naps' OBP vs LHPs the last 2 years is a fluke. 

    5) No 2 lefties in a row, so LOOGY Go Home!

     

    I could go with this vs LHPs after watching 2013 trends:

    1) L Gomes

    2) R Pedey

    3) L Papi

    4) R Napoli

    5) S Victorino

    6) R Midd

    7) L Ells

    8) R Ross

    9) L Drew/Ciriaco

    (Again, a perfect L-R set up without even trying to do it.)

     

     

     

     

     

    [/QUOTE]

    That one line I underlined says it all. Set your high OBP guys up in front of the big boppers. No matter who leads the inning off, they will be in ther proper spot in the lineup.

    I think having a good OBP or contact guy in the lower half of the lineup is important as well to turn the lineup over. Drew would be good against RHP and SV against LHP (the 2 hole would also be a good spot as well but I think Pedey should stay put no matter who pitches). Both have some speed and wouldnt clog up the basepaths in front of Ells and Pedey like Gomes or salty would...

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: The Great Split Divide

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    I agree with that, but also it's not just as simple as changing a number.  For example, if you're batting 7th it's pretty likely the guys on base when you're up aren't trying to steal bases which might be distracting e.g. throws over to first.  And if you bat 2nd you might be pitched differently e.g. more fastballs if the leadoff guy is trying to steal.  In the NL or interleague games if you're batting 8th there's a black hole up next which adds a bit of pressure if there's 2 out and men on.  And so on.  These guys aren't robots, and, further, a lot are creatures of habit and some even superstitious.  A big part of a manager's job is to get them comfortable so they can perform their best. 

     




    Well said Sonics.  Also, when you change spots in the line up, you may strengthen one spot, but in doing so it weakens another.  They talk about the line up being a continuous loop.  After the first inning, the lead off guy usually isn't the lead off guy anymore.  Any benefit that you might get from moving a guy with good splits up to the #2 hole becomes negligible due to other counter effects.

     

     

     



    While the leadoff hitter may not lead off an inning after the 1st, you still want your OBP guys up right in front of your big sluggers throughout the rest of the game.

     

    Let's take the example of moving Victorino up from 9th to 2nd vs LHPs and Pedey from 2nd to 4th, Naps from 4th to 5th and everyone else pretty much the same, except for the platoon positions of C and LF.

    You might weaken the 9 slot, but improve the 2 slot immensely while giving SV many more PAs as the differential between the 2 and 9 slot vs LH'd starters might be 30-45 more PAs over a season. Very significant

        

    vs RHPs   OBP '11-12  SLG11-12  Career OPS

    1) L Ellsbury  .365/       .521/     .803

    2) R Pedey     .345/       .443/     .821

    3) L Ortiz       .405/       .572/    .972

    4) R Napoli    .387/       .569/    .845

    5) S Nava      .390/       .414/    .768

    6) R Midd       .312/      .486/     .798

    7) S Salty      .301/       .481/      .774

    8) L Drew       .328/      .386/      .784

    9) R Victorino  .319/    .410/      .730

    Notes:

    1) As you can see, we are much worse vs RHPs than LHPs. Any line-up adjustment that helps can make a big difference in these games.

    2) One could argue moving Nava to the 1 or 2 slot if he can keep up his .390 OBP-- 2nd best on the team over the last 2 years!

    3) This line-up is a perfect L-R-L set up with the switch hitters helping.

    vs LHPs

    1) L Ellsbury  .338/       .436/      .762

    2) R Victorino .410/      .587/      .881

    3) L Ortiz       .404/       .584/      .824

    4) R Pedroia  .424/       .510/      .853

    5) R Napoli    .316/       .563/      .911

    6) L Gomes   .411/        .530/      .894

    7) R Midd      .350/        .556/      .906

    8) R D Ross   .320/        .362/     .784

    9) L Drew      .278/       .335/      .699

    Notes:

    1) Wow! The 2-7 hitters have all had SLG%s higher than .500 over the last 2 years! We should kill lefties this year.

    2) One could argue that leaving Pedey 2nd and putting Victorino 4th or 5th vs LHPs makes more sense, but I like his speed more than Pedey's.

    3) The 2 year numbers argue to move Ellsbury down and Gomes up, but Ellsbury has been pretty good vs LHPs upo to 2011.

    4) My guess is Naps' OBP vs LHPs the last 2 years is a fluke. 

    5) No 2 lefties in a row, so LOOGY Go Home!

     

    I could go with this vs LHPs after watching 2013 trends:

    1) L Gomes

    2) R Pedey

    3) L Papi

    4) R Napoli

    5) S Victorino

    6) R Midd

    7) L Ells

    8) R Ross

    9) L Drew/Ciriaco

    (Again, a perfect L-R set up without even trying to do it.)

     

     

     

     

     



    That one line I underlined says it all. Set your high OBP guys up in front of the big boppers. No matter who leads the inning off, they will be in ther proper spot in the lineup.

    I think having a good OBP or contact guy in the lower half of the lineup is important as well to turn the lineup over. Drew would be good against RHP and SV against LHP (the 2 hole would also be a good spot as well but I think Pedey should stay put no matter who pitches). Both have some speed and wouldnt clog up the basepaths in front of Ells and Pedey like Gomes or salty would...

    [/QUOTE]

    We could even have an Ellsbury, Victorino, Pedroia 1-2-3 vs LHPs as well. All have speed and OBP skills.

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: The Great Split Divide

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

     

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    I agree with that, but also it's not just as simple as changing a number.  For example, if you're batting 7th it's pretty likely the guys on base when you're up aren't trying to steal bases which might be distracting e.g. throws over to first.  And if you bat 2nd you might be pitched differently e.g. more fastballs if the leadoff guy is trying to steal.  In the NL or interleague games if you're batting 8th there's a black hole up next which adds a bit of pressure if there's 2 out and men on.  And so on.  These guys aren't robots, and, further, a lot are creatures of habit and some even superstitious.  A big part of a manager's job is to get them comfortable so they can perform their best. 

     




    Well said Sonics.  Also, when you change spots in the line up, you may strengthen one spot, but in doing so it weakens another.  They talk about the line up being a continuous loop.  After the first inning, the lead off guy usually isn't the lead off guy anymore.  Any benefit that you might get from moving a guy with good splits up to the #2 hole becomes negligible due to other counter effects.

     

     

     



    While the leadoff hitter may not lead off an inning after the 1st, you still want your OBP guys up right in front of your big sluggers throughout the rest of the game.

     

    Let's take the example of moving Victorino up from 9th to 2nd vs LHPs and Pedey from 2nd to 4th, Naps from 4th to 5th and everyone else pretty much the same, except for the platoon positions of C and LF.

    You might weaken the 9 slot, but improve the 2 slot immensely while giving SV many more PAs as the differential between the 2 and 9 slot vs LH'd starters might be 30-45 more PAs over a season. Very significant

        

    vs RHPs   OBP '11-12  SLG11-12  Career OPS

    1) L Ellsbury  .365/       .521/     .803

    2) R Pedey     .345/       .443/     .821

    3) L Ortiz       .405/       .572/    .972

    4) R Napoli    .387/       .569/    .845

    5) S Nava      .390/       .414/    .768

    6) R Midd       .312/      .486/     .798

    7) S Salty      .301/       .481/      .774

    8) L Drew       .328/      .386/      .784

    9) R Victorino  .319/    .410/      .730

    Notes:

    1) As you can see, we are much worse vs RHPs than LHPs. Any line-up adjustment that helps can make a big difference in these games.

    2) One could argue moving Nava to the 1 or 2 slot if he can keep up his .390 OBP-- 2nd best on the team over the last 2 years!

    3) This line-up is a perfect L-R-L set up with the switch hitters helping.

    vs LHPs

    1) L Ellsbury  .338/       .436/      .762

    2) R Victorino .410/      .587/      .881

    3) L Ortiz       .404/       .584/      .824

    4) R Pedroia  .424/       .510/      .853

    5) R Napoli    .316/       .563/      .911

    6) L Gomes   .411/        .530/      .894

    7) R Midd      .350/        .556/      .906

    8) R D Ross   .320/        .362/     .784

    9) L Drew      .278/       .335/      .699

    Notes:

    1) Wow! The 2-7 hitters have all had SLG%s higher than .500 over the last 2 years! We should kill lefties this year.

    2) One could argue that leaving Pedey 2nd and putting Victorino 4th or 5th vs LHPs makes more sense, but I like his speed more than Pedey's.

    3) The 2 year numbers argue to move Ellsbury down and Gomes up, but Ellsbury has been pretty good vs LHPs upo to 2011.

    4) My guess is Naps' OBP vs LHPs the last 2 years is a fluke. 

    5) No 2 lefties in a row, so LOOGY Go Home!

     

    I could go with this vs LHPs after watching 2013 trends:

    1) L Gomes

    2) R Pedey

    3) L Papi

    4) R Napoli

    5) S Victorino

    6) R Midd

    7) L Ells

    8) R Ross

    9) L Drew/Ciriaco

    (Again, a perfect L-R set up without even trying to do it.)

     

     

     

     

     

     



    That one line I underlined says it all. Set your high OBP guys up in front of the big boppers. No matter who leads the inning off, they will be in ther proper spot in the lineup.

     

    I think having a good OBP or contact guy in the lower half of the lineup is important as well to turn the lineup over. Drew would be good against RHP and SV against LHP (the 2 hole would also be a good spot as well but I think Pedey should stay put no matter who pitches). Both have some speed and wouldnt clog up the basepaths in front of Ells and Pedey like Gomes or salty would...



    We could even have an Ellsbury, Victorino, Pedroia 1-2-3 vs LHPs as well. All have speed and OBP skills.

    [/QUOTE]


    I agree with flipping a couple spots in the lineup to take advantage of the huge splits, but i think having stability is also good.

    I think 1-4 could remain the same all year and be very productive.

     

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedSoxKimmi. Show RedSoxKimmi's posts

    Re: The Great Split Divide

    While the leadoff hitter may not lead off an inning after the 1st, you still want your OBP guys up right in front of your big sluggers throughout the rest of the game.

    Let's take the example of moving Victorino up from 9th to 2nd vs LHPs and Pedey from 2nd to 4th, Naps from 4th to 5th and everyone else pretty much the same, except for the platoon positions of C and LF.

    You might weaken the 9 slot, but improve the 2 slot immensely while giving SV many more PAs as the differential between the 2 and 9 slot vs LH'd starters might be 30-45 more PAs over a season. Very significant.

     

    All of the arguments you are making have validity.  They all make sense to me intuitively.  About 4-5 years ago, I would have been (and was) in complete agreement with you. 

    However, the research that has been done on the importance of batting order just does not support the claim that changing the batting order will have a significant impact over the course of a season.

    One study (on the Retrosheet site) found that the difference between the worst lineup and the best lineup in the NL amounted to 28.5 runs, or about 3 games over a season.  In the AL, without a weak hitting pitcher batting, the difference was even less, 17.5 runs, less than 2 games a season.  The reality is, no manager uses either the worst or the best lineup in any game, so the difference in runs over a season is even less than that.

    As I've mentioned before, the benefit of moving a #9 hitter to the #2 spot is offset by weakening other spots in the lineup.  Another poster referred to this as the concept of "opportunity cost", an economics term.  Just about any move a manager makes to gain some advantage also has some downside to it that at least partially offsets the gain.

    A good example of opportunity cost that was cited is when an NL manager intentionally walks the #8 hitter with 2 outs to get to the pitcher.  The gain is that the team likely gets out of the inning with no runs scored.  The cost is that the team doesn't get to face the pitcher as the leadoff batter the next inning, and it turns the lineup over.  How many runs may have scored in subsequent innings because of the intentional walk?

    The gain is usually obvious.  The cost is often more subtle.  So, while one move may be better than another, the overall gain usually turns out to be smaller than people expect.

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: The Great Split Divide

    In response to RedSoxKimmi's comment:

    While the leadoff hitter may not lead off an inning after the 1st, you still want your OBP guys up right in front of your big sluggers throughout the rest of the game.

    Let's take the example of moving Victorino up from 9th to 2nd vs LHPs and Pedey from 2nd to 4th, Naps from 4th to 5th and everyone else pretty much the same, except for the platoon positions of C and LF.

    You might weaken the 9 slot, but improve the 2 slot immensely while giving SV many more PAs as the differential between the 2 and 9 slot vs LH'd starters might be 30-45 more PAs over a season. Very significant.

     

    All of the arguments you are making have validity.  They all make sense to me intuitively.  About 4-5 years ago, I would have been (and was) in complete agreement with you. 

    However, the research that has been done on the importance of batting order just does not support the claim that changing the batting order will have a significant impact over the course of a season.

    One study (on the Retrosheet site) found that the difference between the worst lineup and the best lineup in the NL amounted to 28.5 runs, or about 3 games over a season.  In the AL, without a weak hitting pitcher batting, the difference was even less, 17.5 runs, less than 2 games a season.  The reality is, no manager uses either the worst or the best lineup in any game, so the difference in runs over a season is even less than that.

    As I've mentioned before, the benefit of moving a #9 hitter to the #2 spot is offset by weakening other spots in the lineup.  Another poster referred to this as the concept of "opportunity cost", an economics term.  Just about any move a manager makes to gain some advantage also has some downside to it that at least partially offsets the gain.

    A good example of opportunity cost that was cited is when an NL manager intentionally walks the #8 hitter with 2 outs to get to the pitcher.  The gain is that the team likely gets out of the inning with no runs scored.  The cost is that the team doesn't get to face the pitcher as the leadoff batter the next inning, and it turns the lineup over.  How many runs may have scored in subsequent innings because of the intentional walk?

    The gain is usually obvious.  The cost is often more subtle.  So, while one move may be better than another, the overall gain usually turns out to be smaller than people expect.




    +1

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: The Great Split Divide

    I agree with flipping a couple spots in the lineup to take advantage of the huge splits, but i think having stability is also good.

    I think 1-4 could remain the same all year and be very productive.

     

    So, you think this is too "unstable"?

     

    vs RHPs   OBP '11-12  SLG11-12  Career OPS

    1) L Ellsbury  .365/       .521/     .803

    2) R Pedey     .345/       .443/     .821

    3) L Ortiz       .405/       .572/    .972

    4) R Napoli    .387/       .569/    .845

    5) S Nava      .390/       .414/    .768

    6) R Midd       .312/      .486/     .798

    7) S Salty      .301/       .481/      .774

    8) L Drew       .328/      .386/      .784

    9) R Victorino  .319/    .410/      .730

     

    vs LHPs

    1) L Ellsbury  .338/       .436/      .762

    2) R Victorino .410/      .587/      .881

    3) L Ortiz       .404/       .584/      .824

    4) R Pedroia  .424/       .510/      .853

    5) R Napoli    .316/       .563/      .911

    6) L Gomes   .411/        .530/      .894

    7) R Midd      .350/        .556/      .906

    8) R D Ross   .320/        .362/     .784

    9) L Drew      .278/       .335/      .699

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: The Great Split Divide

    In response to RedSoxKimmi's comment:

    While the leadoff hitter may not lead off an inning after the 1st, you still want your OBP guys up right in front of your big sluggers throughout the rest of the game.

    Let's take the example of moving Victorino up from 9th to 2nd vs LHPs and Pedey from 2nd to 4th, Naps from 4th to 5th and everyone else pretty much the same, except for the platoon positions of C and LF.

    You might weaken the 9 slot, but improve the 2 slot immensely while giving SV many more PAs as the differential between the 2 and 9 slot vs LH'd starters might be 30-45 more PAs over a season. Very significant.

     

    All of the arguments you are making have validity.  They all make sense to me intuitively.  About 4-5 years ago, I would have been (and was) in complete agreement with you. 

    However, the research that has been done on the importance of batting order just does not support the claim that changing the batting order will have a significant impact over the course of a season.

    One study (on the Retrosheet site) found that the difference between the worst lineup and the best lineup in the NL amounted to 28.5 runs, or about 3 games over a season.  In the AL, without a weak hitting pitcher batting, the difference was even less, 17.5 runs, less than 2 games a season.  The reality is, no manager uses either the worst or the best lineup in any game, so the difference in runs over a season is even less than that.

    As I've mentioned before, the benefit of moving a #9 hitter to the #2 spot is offset by weakening other spots in the lineup.  Another poster referred to this as the concept of "opportunity cost", an economics term.  Just about any move a manager makes to gain some advantage also has some downside to it that at least partially offsets the gain.

    A good example of opportunity cost that was cited is when an NL manager intentionally walks the #8 hitter with 2 outs to get to the pitcher.  The gain is that the team likely gets out of the inning with no runs scored.  The cost is that the team doesn't get to face the pitcher as the leadoff batter the next inning, and it turns the lineup over.  How many runs may have scored in subsequent innings because of the intentional walk?

    The gain is usually obvious.  The cost is often more subtle.  So, while one move may be better than another, the overall gain usually turns out to be smaller than people expect.



    1) I'm not sure the study you cited is rock-solid gospel truth.

    2) 2 games can make a difference, so why not try and make a difference rather than have a lottery every game, or follow the old paradigm that all player have comfort slots, when the evidence in Pedey's case (the biggest flipped player in my line-ups) shows otherwise.

    3) Put the OBP guys upearly. Keeping .900+ hitters way down in the line-up, so .700 hitters can stay comfy is not winning baseball.

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedSoxKimmi. Show RedSoxKimmi's posts

    Re: The Great Split Divide

    1) I'm not sure the study you cited is rock-solid gospel truth.

    There are numerous studies on the subject. Probably the most notable studies are the one conducted by the guys at Baseball Prospectus, published in Baseball Between the Numbers, and the one conducted by Tango et al, published in The Book. The findings are the same - batting order does not make much of a difference.

    I've already posted a link summarizing the findings published in The Book.

    Here are a couple of quotes from the guys at BP:

    "Managers tinkering with lineups so rarely shun convention that most of their changes would affect their teams' output by only a few runs over the course of a season. "

    "So was Billy Martin crazy? Not, at least, with regard to his batting order. He understood that who is in the lineup is much more important than where they bat. Were it not that the conventional wisdom has become self-fulfilling prophecy—batting order is important because everybody thinks it's important—Martin could have pulled his lineups out of a hat all year long and hardly lost a game in the standings."

     

    2) 2 games can make a difference, so why not try and make a difference rather than have a lottery every game, or follow the old paradigm that all player have comfort slots, when the evidence in Pedey's case (the biggest flipped player in my line-ups) shows otherwise.

     

    Yes, two games can absolutely make a difference. However, 2 games is the difference between the best and worst line ups. The difference in the types of moves you're talking about will likely be less than 5 runs a year.

    That said, your point about trying to win every game is valid.

     

    3) Put the OBP guys upearly. Keeping .900+ hitters way down in the line-up, so .700 hitters can stay comfy is not winning baseball.

     

    Yes, as a general rule you want to put the OBP guys at the top of your lineup. I'm not arguing that point. But again, the effect of doing so is offset by other other factors, to the extent that we are realistically talking about 3 runs difference over a season.

    Maybe for someone like Pedroia, it doesn't matter where he bats. I tend to think that many ballplayers are superstitious and are creatures of habit who prefer consitency.

    Unless a manager is willing to go all out against conventional wisdom in creating a lineup, I'm not sure that the line up changes (based on splits) are worth any disruption they might cause.

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from pinstripezac35. Show pinstripezac35's posts

    Re: The Great Split Divide

    In response to RedSoxKimmi's comment:

     the research that has been done on the importance of batting order just does not support the claim that changing the batting order will have a significant impact over the course of a season.

     



    fans have been debating line ups for a 100 years

    this is just another example of those

    mean new school stat geeks ruining BB for us old schoolers

     no surprise here

    heck if wins don't matter why should a line up matter

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: The Great Split Divide

    In response to RedSoxKimmi's comment:

    1) I'm not sure the study you cited is rock-solid gospel truth.

    There are numerous studies on the subject. Probably the most notable studies are the one conducted by the guys at Baseball Prospectus, published in Baseball Between the Numbers, and the one conducted by Tango et al, published in The Book. The findings are the same - batting order does not make much of a difference.

    I've already posted a link summarizing the findings published in The Book.

    Here are a couple of quotes from the guys at BP:

    "Managers tinkering with lineups so rarely shun convention that most of their changes would affect their teams' output by only a few runs over the course of a season. "

    "So was Billy Martin crazy? Not, at least, with regard to his batting order. He understood that who is in the lineup is much more important than where they bat. Were it not that the conventional wisdom has become self-fulfilling prophecy—batting order is important because everybody thinks it's important—Martin could have pulled his lineups out of a hat all year long and hardly lost a game in the standings."

     

    2) 2 games can make a difference, so why not try and make a difference rather than have a lottery every game, or follow the old paradigm that all player have comfort slots, when the evidence in Pedey's case (the biggest flipped player in my line-ups) shows otherwise.

     

    Yes, two games can absolutely make a difference. However, 2 games is the difference between the best and worst line ups. The difference in the types of moves you're talking about will likely be less than 5 runs a year.

    That said, your point about trying to win every game is valid.

     

    3) Put the OBP guys upearly. Keeping .900+ hitters way down in the line-up, so .700 hitters can stay comfy is not winning baseball.

     

    Yes, as a general rule you want to put the OBP guys at the top of your lineup. I'm not arguing that point. But again, the effect of doing so is offset by other other factors, to the extent that we are realistically talking about 3 runs difference over a season.

    Maybe for someone like Pedroia, it doesn't matter where he bats. I tend to think that many ballplayers are superstitious and are creatures of habit who prefer consitency.

    Unless a manager is willing to go all out against conventional wisdom in creating a lineup, I'm not sure that the line up changes (based on splits) are worth any disruption they might cause.



    Sorry, but I don't buy it. I think keeping a .900+ OPS guy up 6th or 7th just to keep harmony and stability is borderline insanity.

    I was also one of the few who claimed that not only should CC not bat 1st, 2nd or 3rd vs LHPs in 2011, but he should have been benched vs most of them. (Maybe Billy Martin would have done just that.)

    Line-ups do matter. I'm sure there are studies that show they make a bigger difference than the ones you cite. I also remember a few years back where softy and I posted our daily line-ups before gametime, and it seemed like the guys we had in different slots did better overall in that game-- I know- unscientific and speculative since situational hitting is not really comparable, but still...

    Mayeb arguing so much over this, if it does only amount to 5-10 runs over a year is going overboard, but I can't help but think that a much higher OBP and 35-40 more PAs over a full season by a different guy up before Papi and Napoli will make more than a 5 un difference.

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: The Great Split Divide

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    I agree with flipping a couple spots in the lineup to take advantage of the huge splits, but i think having stability is also good.

    I think 1-4 could remain the same all year and be very productive.

     

    So, you think this is too "unstable"?

     

    vs RHPs   OBP '11-12  SLG11-12  Career OPS

    1) L Ellsbury  .365/       .521/     .803

    2) R Pedey     .345/       .443/     .821

    3) L Ortiz       .405/       .572/    .972

    4) R Napoli    .387/       .569/    .845

    5) S Nava      .390/       .414/    .768

    6) R Midd       .312/      .486/     .798

    7) S Salty      .301/       .481/      .774

    8) L Drew       .328/      .386/      .784

    9) R Victorino  .319/    .410/      .730

     

    vs LHPs

    1) L Ellsbury  .338/       .436/      .762

    2) R Victorino .410/      .587/      .881

    3) L Ortiz       .404/       .584/      .824

    4) R Pedroia  .424/       .510/      .853

    5) R Napoli    .316/       .563/      .911

    6) L Gomes   .411/        .530/      .894

    7) R Midd      .350/        .556/      .906

    8) R D Ross   .320/        .362/     .784

    9) L Drew      .278/       .335/      .699




    Just my opinion Moon. Not saying Im right or you are. I just dont think making a lot of changes due to what side of the mound the ball comes from is all that important. I agree there are some big splits, but to move around other guys because one has better splits is picking nits.

    SV could still stay in the lower half of the lineup and I dont think it would really make that much of a difference...I still think 1-4 could stay at Ells' Pedey Papi and naps and it would be fine.

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: The Great Split Divide

    Just my opinion Moon. Not saying Im right or you are. I just dont think making a lot of changes due to what side of the mound the ball comes from is all that important. I agree there are some big splits, but to move around other guys because one has better splits is picking nits.

     

    SV could still stay in the lower half of the lineup and I dont think it would really make that much of a difference...I still think 1-4 could stay at Ells' Pedey Papi and naps and it would be fine.

    I think we are going to be very very good vs LHPs no matter what line-up we put out there, but no matter what, Victorino should be moved vs RHPs and LHPs. If you bat him 6th vs LHPs, he should still bat 8th or 9th vs RHPs. I prefer 9th, so he can be up in front of Ells.

    There could also be a case made to move Ellsbury down vs LHPs, since we have 6 career .820+ OPS guys that will force one to bat 7th.

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from ThefourBs. Show ThefourBs's posts

    Re: The Great Split Divide

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to RedSoxKimmi's comment:

     

    1) I'm not sure the study you cited is rock-solid gospel truth.

    There are numerous studies on the subject. Probably the most notable studies are the one conducted by the guys at Baseball Prospectus, published in Baseball Between the Numbers, and the one conducted by Tango et al, published in The Book. The findings are the same - batting order does not make much of a difference.

    I've already posted a link summarizing the findings published in The Book.

    Here are a couple of quotes from the guys at BP:

    "Managers tinkering with lineups so rarely shun convention that most of their changes would affect their teams' output by only a few runs over the course of a season. "

    "So was Billy Martin crazy? Not, at least, with regard to his batting order. He understood that who is in the lineup is much more important than where they bat. Were it not that the conventional wisdom has become self-fulfilling prophecy—batting order is important because everybody thinks it's important—Martin could have pulled his lineups out of a hat all year long and hardly lost a game in the standings."

     

    2) 2 games can make a difference, so why not try and make a difference rather than have a lottery every game, or follow the old paradigm that all player have comfort slots, when the evidence in Pedey's case (the biggest flipped player in my line-ups) shows otherwise.

     

    Yes, two games can absolutely make a difference. However, 2 games is the difference between the best and worst line ups. The difference in the types of moves you're talking about will likely be less than 5 runs a year.

    That said, your point about trying to win every game is valid.

     

    3) Put the OBP guys upearly. Keeping .900+ hitters way down in the line-up, so .700 hitters can stay comfy is not winning baseball.

     

    Yes, as a general rule you want to put the OBP guys at the top of your lineup. I'm not arguing that point. But again, the effect of doing so is offset by other other factors, to the extent that we are realistically talking about 3 runs difference over a season.

    Maybe for someone like Pedroia, it doesn't matter where he bats. I tend to think that many ballplayers are superstitious and are creatures of habit who prefer consitency.

    Unless a manager is willing to go all out against conventional wisdom in creating a lineup, I'm not sure that the line up changes (based on splits) are worth any disruption they might cause.

     



    Sorry, but I don't buy it. I think keeping a .900+ OPS guy up 6th or 7th just to keep harmony and stability is borderline insanity.

     

    I was also one of the few who claimed that not only should CC not bat 1st, 2nd or 3rd vs LHPs in 2011, but he should have been benched vs most of them. (Maybe Billy Martin would have done just that.)

    Line-ups do matter. I'm sure there are studies that show they make a bigger difference than the ones you cite. I also remember a few years back where softy and I posted our daily line-ups before gametime, and it seemed like the guys we had in different slots did better overall in that game-- I know- unscientific and speculative since situational hitting is not really comparable, but still...

    Mayeb arguing so much over this, if it does only amount to 5-10 runs over a year is going overboard, but I can't help but think that a much higher OBP and 35-40 more PAs over a full season by a different guy up before Papi and Napoli will make more than a 5 un difference.




    Perhaps you should cite one or two of those studies....

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: The Great Split Divide

    Perhaps you should cite one or two of those studies....

    First of all, any study is highy conjecture in nature. It's easy for a computer to flip slot 7 with slot 2 and see what the likely run differential might be, but in real life there is a lot of situational hitting and other factors that come into play. 

    Let's take the biggest extreme example: both Victorino and Gomes have an over 70 point margin in OBP over Ellsbury. That's like getting on base one more time every 14 PAs, so roughly every 3 games if we are not a big scoring team. Say we face a LH'd starter 66 games this year, we're talking about maybe 22 more times a guy gets on base, doesn't make an out, and keeps the inning going for at least one more 3-6 slot hitter. It also gives that player  afew more PAs over the season vs the handed pitcher he is better at, and the other guy less PAs ve the handed pitcher he is not as good against. 

    I'd guess the minimum amount of differential it might be is about 5 runs, but maybe Ellsbury's speed makes up some of that 9although he runs into a lot of outs as well- more than his fair share).

    We lost in 2011 by one game. It can make a difference even if the studies cited by limmi are true.

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from ThefourBs. Show ThefourBs's posts

    Re: The Great Split Divide

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    Perhaps you should cite one or two of those studies....

    First of all, any study is highy conjecture in nature. It's easy for a computer to flip slot 7 with slot 2 and see what the likely run differential might be, but in real life there is a lot of situational hitting and other factors that come into play. 

    Let's take the biggest extreme example: both Victorino and Gomes have an over 70 point margin in OBP over Ellsbury. That's like getting on base one more time every 14 PAs, so roughly every 3 games if we are not a big scoring team. Say we face a LH'd starter 66 games this year, we're talking about maybe 22 more times a guy gets on base, doesn't make an out, and keeps the inning going for at least one more 3-6 slot hitter. It also gives that player  afew more PAs over the season vs the handed pitcher he is better at, and the other guy less PAs ve the handed pitcher he is not as good against. 

    I'd guess the minimum amount of differential it might be is about 5 runs, but maybe Ellsbury's speed makes up some of that 9although he runs into a lot of outs as well- more than his fair share).

    We lost in 2011 by one game. It can make a difference even if the studies cited by limmi are true.




    Sorry Moon, I'm going to have to go with published studies, instead of guesses and assumptions.

    Variations in how well a pitcher does in a bullpen session would seem to have a bigger effect on W/L record than tinkering with lineups.

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: The Great Split Divide

    Sorry Moon, I'm going to have to go with published studies, instead of guesses and assumptions.

    Like I said, even if you go by the published studies, I'll take a 1-2 game differential and we might have made the playoffs in 2011 and maybe the year we lost to the Tigers by a half game.

    I have also said, the differential might not be as much as I suspect and might not be worth spending pages and pages arguing about it.

     

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