The Great Split Divide

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedSoxKimmi. Show RedSoxKimmi's posts

    Re: The Great Split Divide

    In response to pinstripezac35's comment:

    fans have been debating line ups for a 100 years

    this is just another example of those

    mean new school stat geeks ruining BB for us old schoolers

     no surprise here

    heck if wins don't matter why should a line up matter




    LOL Zac.

    Wins, line ups, none of that stuff matters anymore.

    Having sexy players, that's what it's all about.   ;-)

     

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedSoxKimmi. Show RedSoxKimmi's posts

    Re: The Great Split Divide

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    Sorry, but I don't buy it. I think keeping a .900+ OPS guy up 6th or 7th just to keep harmony and stability is borderline insanity.

     

    I was also one of the few who claimed that not only should CC not bat 1st, 2nd or 3rd vs LHPs in 2011, but he should have been benched vs most of them. (Maybe Billy Martin would have done just that.)

    Line-ups do matter. I'm sure there are studies that show they make a bigger difference than the ones you cite. I also remember a few years back where softy and I posted our daily line-ups before gametime, and it seemed like the guys we had in different slots did better overall in that game-- I know- unscientific and speculative since situational hitting is not really comparable, but still...

    Mayeb arguing so much over this, if it does only amount to 5-10 runs over a year is going overboard, but I can't help but think that a much higher OBP and 35-40 more PAs over a full season by a different guy up before Papi and Napoli will make more than a 5 un difference.




    Putting a much higher OBP at the top of the lineup over not having them in the line up at all would likely make more than 5 runs difference over a year.  Maybe Billy Martin would have benched CC versus LHP. 

    However, putting a much higher OBP at the top of the lineup over having them bat lower down does not make that much difference.  I still think that you are not giving enough weight to the "opportunity cost" that offsets much of the benefit.

    At any rate, managers are going to continue to make these line up changes according to conventional wisdom.  It will be interesting to keep an eye on how often such a move seems to pay off, and how often it doesn't.

     

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedSoxKimmi. Show RedSoxKimmi's posts

    Re: The Great Split Divide

    The one thing to watch is Ellsbury. What if he plays like 2012? How long will he stay in the one slot when we have 2 guys with OPS over 900 batting 6th and 7th?

    I argued that Ellsbury should be moved down in the line up a few years ago when his OBP was terrible, and I would probably argue the same this year.  But, that's more to take some of the pressure off of Ellsbury than to improve the overall scoring ability of the team.

     

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: The Great Split Divide

    In response to RedSoxKimmi's comment:

     

    The one thing to watch is Ellsbury. What if he plays like 2012? How long will he stay in the one slot when we have 2 guys with OPS over 900 batting 6th and 7th?

    I argued that Ellsbury should be moved down in the line up a few years ago when his OBP was terrible, and I would probably argue the same this year.  But, that's more to take some of the pressure off of Ellsbury than to improve the overall scoring ability of the team.

     

     



    I still think adding 70 to 80 points to a 1 or 2 slot hitter's OBP will mean more than 1 win a year, but even if it is just 1, I'd still do it.

     

    I'm not sure what more else can be said that hasn't already been said. Let the game begin.

    I also think there is some fun in making up one's own line-up to compare against the actual one from night to night -- for some of us anyways ;)

    There was one year a few years back that Papi was struggling mightily vs LHPs, so that next spring I advocated moving him to 6th or 7th vs LHPs vs all but about 5 LH'd starters. softy argued vehemently against the move, but at the end of the season, Papi had about a .500 OPS in those games with 1 HR and just a handfull of RBIs in something like 120 PAs as I recall. (The following year Papi turned it around vs LHPs and has done well ever since.)

     

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: The Great Split Divide

    Anyways, no matter how we look at it, we will likely need some help or a big year from someone vs RHPs.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: The Great Split Divide

    Who's the most likely candidate to suprise us vs RHPs?

    I'd say Middlebrooks.

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: The Great Split Divide

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    Who's the most likely candidate to suprise us vs RHPs?

    I'd say Middlebrooks.




    pedroia, on his way to a .320+ avg

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: The Great Split Divide

    In response to mef429's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    Who's the most likely candidate to suprise us vs RHPs?

    I'd say Middlebrooks.

     




    pedroia, on his way to a .320+ avg

     



    .320+ vs RHPs would be a surprise. Maybe we can get both: Pedey and Middlebrooks to do very well vs RHPs. The fact is, we need some improvement from somebody or a little from everybody to have any chance.

    I fear what our road numbers vs RHPs will look like this year. That's about a third of all our games!

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: The Great Split Divide

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to mef429's comment:

     

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    Who's the most likely candidate to suprise us vs RHPs?

    I'd say Middlebrooks.

     




    pedroia, on his way to a .320+ avg

     

     



    .320+ vs RHPs would be a surprise. Maybe we can get both: Pedey and Middlebrooks to do very well vs RHPs. The fact is, we need some improvement from somebody or a little from everybody to have any chance.

     

    I fear what our road numbers vs RHPs will look like this year. That's about a third of all our games!



    i think his overall avg will hit .320 not necessarily his avg vs RHP. since he hits lefties so well that will offset it some. But no matter how you want to break it down i think pedroia is going to have a big year.

    WMB will likely improve (been reading some articles on him and how he is working on his discipline) in his second year so i think a jump in his OBP and avg isn't blastphemous to project.

     

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: The Great Split Divide

    i think his overall avg will hit .320 not necessarily his avg vs RHP. since he hits lefties so well that will offset it some. But no matter how you want to break it down i think pedroia is going to have a big year.

    I agree, but I was focusing on where we can look to see some input vs RHPs. Our projections vs righties are low, low, LOW!

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: The Great Split Divide

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    i think his overall avg will hit .320 not necessarily his avg vs RHP. since he hits lefties so well that will offset it some. But no matter how you want to break it down i think pedroia is going to have a big year.

    I agree, but I was focusing on where we can look to see some input vs RHPs. Our projections vs righties are low, low, LOW!




    jacoby hits pretty well against both LHP and RHP. having him healthy and playing well could boost our numbers vs RHP.

    shane is another who we could see improve against RHP.

    i would have liked to find a good platoon partner who can hit RHP to pair with gomes but it looks like that role is going to be filled from within. nava (.768 OPS vs RHP) or sweeney (.749 OPS vs RHP) 

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: The Great Split Divide

    In response to mef429's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    i think his overall avg will hit .320 not necessarily his avg vs RHP. since he hits lefties so well that will offset it some. But no matter how you want to break it down i think pedroia is going to have a big year.

    I agree, but I was focusing on where we can look to see some input vs RHPs. Our projections vs righties are low, low, LOW!

     




    jacoby hits pretty well against both LHP and RHP. having him healthy and playing well could boost our numbers vs RHP.

     

    shane is another who we could see improve against RHP.

    i would have liked to find a good platoon partner who can hit RHP to pair with gomes but it looks like that role is going to be filled from within. nava (.768 OPS vs RHP) or sweeney (.749 OPS vs RHP) 



    I wouldn't call .803 career vs RHPs that great, but Jacoby certainly has the potential to explode (.965 vs RHPs in 2011).

    I have very little hope that Victorino will be the player to boost us vs RHPs. I see no evidence to support any projection of improvement there. Victorino has a career OPS vs RHPs below .730 (.732 as a RHB'er). SV's last 3 year OPS vs RHPs: .701.

    2010: .681 at age 29

    2011: .787 at age 30 (Not bad at all)

    2012: .629 at age 31

    He is 32 now and will urn 33 shortly after the season is over. I'm hoping for the best, but his numbers argue that he should be platooned, however, we have nobody that is even better than .701, since the one guy we might have on the 25 man roster (Sweeney or Nava) will likely be needed to platoon with Gomes more so than with SV.

     

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: The Great Split Divide

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    i think his overall avg will hit .320 not necessarily his avg vs RHP. since he hits lefties so well that will offset it some. But no matter how you want to break it down i think pedroia is going to have a big year.

    I agree, but I was focusing on where we can look to see some input vs RHPs. Our projections vs righties are low, low, LOW!



    I don't get it.  Ellsbury, Pedroia, Ortiz, Napoli, Salty, Drew, Middlebrooks all hit righties pretty well.

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: The Great Split Divide

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

     

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    i think his overall avg will hit .320 not necessarily his avg vs RHP. since he hits lefties so well that will offset it some. But no matter how you want to break it down i think pedroia is going to have a big year.

    I agree, but I was focusing on where we can look to see some input vs RHPs. Our projections vs righties are low, low, LOW!

     



    I don't get it.  Ellsbury, Pedroia, Ortiz, Napoli, Salty, Drew, Middlebrooks all hit righties pretty well.

     

     



    When you look at our starting 9 vs LHPs, our 9 vs RHPs pale. 

     

    We will struggle vs RHPs this year, especially on the road.

     

     vs RHPs 

    Salty       .774  

    Ortiz       .972   

    Nava       .768    (small sample size)

    Drew      .784  

    Ellsbury  .803   

    D Ross    .771   

    Ciriaco   .723  

    Pedroia  .821   

    Napoli    .845   

    Middlbrk .798  (small sample size)

    Victorino .730 

    J Gomes  .732 

    Also, some of these guys have recently done much worse that there career numbers listed here.

     

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: The Great Split Divide

    Napoli is a real wild card vs RHPs:

    2009: .782 (Way worse than vs LHPs)

    2010: .700 (Way worse)

    2011: 1.044 (About the same)

    2012: .861 (Way better)

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: The Great Split Divide

    In response to moonslav59's comment:


    When you look at our starting 9 vs LHPs, our 9 vs RHPs pale. 

     

    We will struggle vs RHPs this year, especially on the road.

     

     vs RHPs 

    Salty       .774  

    Ortiz       .972   

    Nava       .768    (small sample size)

    Drew      .784  

    Ellsbury  .803   

    D Ross    .771   

    Ciriaco   .723  

    Pedroia  .821   

    Napoli    .845   

    Middlbrk .798  (small sample size)

    Victorino .730 

    J Gomes  .732 

    Also, some of these guys have recently done much worse that there career numbers listed here.

     



    I'm still not seeing that big of a difference. 

    We know that Victorino will struggle vs. righties. And Gomes is a platoon guy. 

    Napoli and Middlebrooks are probably the keys.

    A composite or average OPS would be very helpful.

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: The Great Split Divide

    moon, I took the OPS from your OP for the following 10 players and averaged them:

    Salty, Ortiz, Nava, Drew, Ellsbury, Pedroia, Napoli, Middlebrooks, Victorino, Gomes

    Average vs. RHP .803

    Average vs. LHP .794

    Pretty much a wash.  The math doesn't back up the idea that we're going to struggle against RHP any more than we will against LHP.

     

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: The Great Split Divide

    Career OPS

             vs RHPs  vs LHPs  Diff

    Salty       .774   .591      .183

    Ortiz       .972   .824      .148

    Nava       .768   .621     .147* (small sample size)

    Drew      .784   .699      .085

    Ellsbury  .803   .762      .035

    D Ross    .771   .764     .007

    Ciriaco   .723   .732    -.009

    Pedroia  .821   .853    -.032

    Napoli    .845   .911    -.066

    Middlbrk .798  .906    -.108* (small sample size)

    Victorino .730  .881    -.151

    J Gomes  .732  .894   -.162 

     

    The likely 9 vs LHPs:

    Ells .762, Pedey .853, Papi .824, Naps .911, Midds .906, Gomes .894, SV .881, Ross .764, Drew .699

    vs RHPs:

    Ells .803, pedey .821, Papi .972, Naps .845, Midds .798, Nava ..768, SV 730, Salty .774, Drew .784

     

    vs LHPs, we have 6 guys over .824 and 2 guys between .762 and .764

    vs RHPs, we have 3 guys over .821 and 4 over .803 with 4 between .768 & 798.

     

    Plus, Papi seems to have regained his skills vs LHPs, and Ellsbury had great numbers vs LHPs in 2011. There is only one weak player vs LHPs: Drew.

    Vs RHPs, we have several players trending downwards, and although we don't have anyone below .700 career, I wouldn't be surprised if SV and Nava/Sweeney end up below .720.

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: The Great Split Divide

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    Career OPS

             vs RHPs  vs LHPs  Diff

    Salty       .774   .591      .183

    Ortiz       .972   .824      .148

    Nava       .768   .621     .147* (small sample size)

    Drew      .784   .699      .085

    Ellsbury  .803   .762      .035

    D Ross    .771   .764     .007

    Ciriaco   .723   .732    -.009

    Pedroia  .821   .853    -.032

    Napoli    .845   .911    -.066

    Middlbrk .798  .906    -.108* (small sample size)

    Victorino .730  .881    -.151

    J Gomes  .732  .894   -.162 

     

    The likely 9 vs LHPs:

    Ells .762, Pedey .853, Papi .824, Naps .911, Midds .906, Gomes .894, SV .881, Ross .764, Drew .699

    vs RHPs:

    Ells .803, pedey .821, Papi .972, Naps .845, Midds .798, Nava ..768, SV 730, Salty .774, Drew .784

     

    vs LHPs, we have 6 guys over .824 and 2 guys between .762 and .764

    vs RHPs, we have 3 guys over .821 and 4 over .803 with 4 between .768 & 798.

     



    Your lineup vs. LHP averages .833 and the one vs. RHP averages .811.  So we look to be in pretty good shape with both lineups.  The Yankees led MLB last year with a team OPS of .790.

     

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: The Great Split Divide

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    Career OPS

             vs RHPs  vs LHPs  Diff

    Salty       .774   .591      .183

    Ortiz       .972   .824      .148

    Nava       .768   .621     .147* (small sample size)

    Drew      .784   .699      .085

    Ellsbury  .803   .762      .035

    D Ross    .771   .764     .007

    Ciriaco   .723   .732    -.009

    Pedroia  .821   .853    -.032

    Napoli    .845   .911    -.066

    Middlbrk .798  .906    -.108* (small sample size)

    Victorino .730  .881    -.151

    J Gomes  .732  .894   -.162 

     

    The likely 9 vs LHPs:

    Ells .762, Pedey .853, Papi .824, Naps .911, Midds .906, Gomes .894, SV .881, Ross .764, Drew .699

    vs RHPs:

    Ells .803, pedey .821, Papi .972, Naps .845, Midds .798, Nava ..768, SV 730, Salty .774, Drew .784

     

    vs LHPs, we have 6 guys over .824 and 2 guys between .762 and .764

    vs RHPs, we have 3 guys over .821 and 4 over .803 with 4 between .768 & 798.

     



    Your lineup vs. LHP averages .833 and the one vs. RHP averages .811.  So we look to be in pretty good shape with both lineups.  The Yankees led MLB last year with a team OPS of .790.

     

     



    We play half our games in Fenway. That .833 and .811 are not as great as they appear.

    Here are some numbers to ponder:

        vRHPs  vLHPs Home Away

    '04 .840   .817    .883   .783

    '07 .808   .800    .844   .768

    '11 .811   .807   .839    .780

    '12 .717  .759    .788    .671

     

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: The Great Split Divide

    In response to moonslav59's comment:


    We play half our games in Fenway. That .833 and .811 are not as great as they appear.

     

    Here are some numbers to ponder:

        vRHPs  vLHPs Home Away

    '04 .840   .817    .883   .783

    '07 .808   .800    .844   .768

    '11 .811   .807   .839    .780

    '12 .717  .759    .788    .671

     



    But the new guys, Napoli, Victorino, Drew, Gomes and Ross, have little or no Fenway Factor in their career OPS numbers.  So who are we worried about-Ortiz, Pedey, Ellsbury, Middlebrooks?  I'm not.

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: The Great Split Divide

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     


    We play half our games in Fenway. That .833 and .811 are not as great as they appear.

     

    Here are some numbers to ponder:

        vRHPs  vLHPs Home Away

    '04 .840   .817    .883   .783

    '07 .808   .800    .844   .768

    '11 .811   .807   .839    .780

    '12 .717  .759    .788    .671

     



    But the new guys, Napoli, Victorino, Drew, Gomes and Ross, have little or no Fenway Factor in their career OPS numbers.  So who are we worried about-Ortiz, Pedey, Ellsbury, Middlebrooks?  I'm not.

     



    I brought up the Fenway factor to point out that .833 and .811 might look great on paper, if it comes true, but after adjusting for Fenway, is not as great as it looks.

    I'm not saying we will be bad vs RHPs, but with out starters, we will need all the offense we can get. Being weaker against the hand we face 60-65% of the time is something a team with some glaring weaknesses may not be able to overcome, particularly on the road.

    Also, I posted the career OPS, but I am a bit concerned about recent trends with some of our players. One good one is Papi's recent numbers vs LHPs, but others are looking a bit scary:

    vs RHPs  3 years  2 years   2 & 3 avg

    *Likely starter

    Ortiz     1.008       .977         .990*

    Ellsb       .853       .886         .870*

    Pedey    .814       .789         .800* 

    Naps      .858       .958         .910*

    Midds    .798        .798         .800*

    Vict       .701        .705         .700*

    Drew    .763        .714         .740*

    Salty     .782        .782        .780*

    Ross      .830        .826       .830

    Gomes  .692         .693       .690

    Nava     .768        .797       .780*

    Not bad, but 4 guys with recent OPS of about .700-.780. (6 at .800 or lower)

     

    vs LHPs

    Ortiz      .841      .988       .920*

    Ellsb      .758      .774       .770*

    Pedey   .893      .934       .910*

    Naps     .912      .879       .900*

    Midds    .906      .906       .910*

    Vict       .946      .960       .950*

    Drew    .703      .617       .660*

    Salty    .597      .590       .590

    Ross     .754      .674       .710*

    Gomes  .904     .935       .920*

    Nava    .621      .613       .620

    Only 3 guys below .900!!!

     

    It is clear we should be much much better vs LHPs, if we go by recent numbers.

    It could be amazing that we have 6 guys with an OPS over .900 vs LHPs. If Ellsbury has a year like 2011, and Drew can come around, our numbers vs LHPs could be off the charts.

    Drew could have some much better numbers vs RHPs than his recent years. Pedey could do much better than .800, and I suppose Salty, SV, Midds and Nava could do better, but those numbers vs LHPs are a big differential.

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedSoxKimmi. Show RedSoxKimmi's posts

    Re: The Great Split Divide

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

    Your lineup vs. LHP averages .833 and the one vs. RHP averages .811.  So we look to be in pretty good shape with both lineups.  The Yankees led MLB last year with a team OPS of .790. 




    IMO, a team average OPS of .811 is pretty dang good, even considering 1/2 our games are played in Fenway.  As you stated, the Yankees led MLB with a .790 last season.

    Something I read from an email from Val's Bosox list is that with the steroid era over, we have to adjust our expectations of what a good OPS is.   The days of scoring 900 runs are likely gone.   The MLB team average OPS last year was .724, and has been trending downward since 2000 when it was .782 (the highest since 1930). 

    FWIW, also courtesy of the list site, Clay Davenport's computer projections have the Red Sox leading the AL in runs scored this year with 790.  I think our offense will be fine.

    I won't mention what it projects for our pitching staff.......

     

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: The Great Split Divide

    In response to RedSoxKimmi's comment:

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

     

    Your lineup vs. LHP averages .833 and the one vs. RHP averages .811.  So we look to be in pretty good shape with both lineups.  The Yankees led MLB last year with a team OPS of .790. 

     




    IMO, a team average OPS of .811 is pretty dang good, even considering 1/2 our games are played in Fenway.  As you stated, the Yankees led MLB with a .790 last season.
     



    and the yankees play half their games in a hitters park also

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: The Great Split Divide

    We may end up placing high up in runs scored, but if they are disproportionally vs LHPs and at home, and we will struggle vs RHPs and/or on the road, what good does it do us?

    We may end up having decent looking stats vs RHPs this year, but if you factor in the Fenway factor, my guess is we might be lucky to be near average in OPS.

    Last season we finished 8th in runs, but we were 26th on the road (last in the AL). We were also last in AL OPS on the road at .671. We were 7th at home at .788. BTW, the Yanks were 4th at home (.807) and 2nd on the road (.774).

    We'll look at this later this year. I am pretty certain this team will not be highly placed vs RHPs and will probably struggle on the road again as well.

     
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