The Great Split Divide

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    Re: The Great Split Divide

    In response to RedSoxKimmi's comment:

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

     

    Your lineup vs. LHP averages .833 and the one vs. RHP averages .811.  So we look to be in pretty good shape with both lineups.  The Yankees led MLB last year with a team OPS of .790. 

     




    IMO, a team average OPS of .811 is pretty dang good, even considering 1/2 our games are played in Fenway.  As you stated, the Yankees led MLB with a .790 last season.
     



    and the yankees play half their games in a hitters park also

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: The Great Split Divide

    We may end up placing high up in runs scored, but if they are disproportionally vs LHPs and at home, and we will struggle vs RHPs and/or on the road, what good does it do us?

    We may end up having decent looking stats vs RHPs this year, but if you factor in the Fenway factor, my guess is we might be lucky to be near average in OPS.

    Last season we finished 8th in runs, but we were 26th on the road (last in the AL). We were also last in AL OPS on the road at .671. We were 7th at home at .788. BTW, the Yanks were 4th at home (.807) and 2nd on the road (.774).

    We'll look at this later this year. I am pretty certain this team will not be highly placed vs RHPs and will probably struggle on the road again as well.

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: The Great Split Divide

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    We may end up placing high up in runs scored, but if they are disproportionally vs LHPs and at home, and we will struggle vs RHPs and/or on the road, what good does it do us?

    We may end up having decent looking stats vs RHPs this year, but if you factor in the Fenway factor, my guess is we might be lucky to be near average in OPS.

    Last season we finished 8th in runs, but we were 26th on the road (last in the AL). We were also last in AL OPS on the road at .671. We were 7th at home at .788. BTW, the Yanks were 4th at home (.807) and 2nd on the road (.774).

    We'll look at this later this year. I am pretty certain this team will not be highly placed vs RHPs and will probably struggle on the road again as well.

    Last year's numbers are not a good measuring stick, with the injuries to Ortiz, Ellsbury and Middlebrooks, and the depleted lineups we had after the trade.

    As far as I can see, the only guys who project to be really weak against RHP are Victorino and Gomes.

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: The Great Split Divide

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    We may end up placing high up in runs scored, but if they are disproportionally vs LHPs and at home, and we will struggle vs RHPs and/or on the road, what good does it do us?

    We may end up having decent looking stats vs RHPs this year, but if you factor in the Fenway factor, my guess is we might be lucky to be near average in OPS.

    Last season we finished 8th in runs, but we were 26th on the road (last in the AL). We were also last in AL OPS on the road at .671. We were 7th at home at .788. BTW, the Yanks were 4th at home (.807) and 2nd on the road (.774).

    We'll look at this later this year. I am pretty certain this team will not be highly placed vs RHPs and will probably struggle on the road again as well.

     

     

    Last year's numbers are not a good measuring stick, with the injuries to Ortiz, Ellsbury and Middlebrooks, and the depleted lineups we had after the trade.

    As far as I can see, the only guys who project to be really weak against RHP are Victorino and Gomes.



    I wasn't showing last year's numbers to compare to this year's team, but to show that our offense can look good overall on paper, but that the Fenway factor made us look better than we really were last year. 

    The bright eyes some of us are having over our projected 2013 offensive numbers are possibly missing the fact that they will be hyper inflated by 2 factors: 

    1) We could have spectacular numbers vs LHPs.

    2) Our home numbers will likely far eclipse our road numbers.

     

    I'm not trying to penalize our offense vs RHPs because the differential between it and vs LHPs is so great. I realize it is possible to be great vs LHPs and still pretty good vs RHPs, but I'm merely voicing a concern that our offense is not balanced.

    Gomes may not play much vs RHPs, but if Sweeney takes his place, we will be losing ground to most team's LF'ers vs RHPs. If Victorino hovers around .700 vs RHPs, we will have 2 pretty big issues at positions where many teams have very good offense. Perhaps Drew can make up some ground vs RHPs from the SS offensive position, and Middlebrooks is a bit of a wild card vs RHPs for 2013. I'm hoping Salty continues to improve, and Naps & Papi stay healthy. Pedey and Ellsbury should do fine. Overall, if we stay healthy, our offense vs RHPs should not be bad, but with our starting pitching situation, I think we will need to count on a steady, consistent and balanced offense to have any real shot at making the playoffs in 2013.

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: The Great Split Divide

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

     

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    We may end up placing high up in runs scored, but if they are disproportionally vs LHPs and at home, and we will struggle vs RHPs and/or on the road, what good does it do us?

    We may end up having decent looking stats vs RHPs this year, but if you factor in the Fenway factor, my guess is we might be lucky to be near average in OPS.

    Last season we finished 8th in runs, but we were 26th on the road (last in the AL). We were also last in AL OPS on the road at .671. We were 7th at home at .788. BTW, the Yanks were 4th at home (.807) and 2nd on the road (.774).

    We'll look at this later this year. I am pretty certain this team will not be highly placed vs RHPs and will probably struggle on the road again as well.

     

     

    Last year's numbers are not a good measuring stick, with the injuries to Ortiz, Ellsbury and Middlebrooks, and the depleted lineups we had after the trade.

    As far as I can see, the only guys who project to be really weak against RHP are Victorino and Gomes.

     



    I wasn't showing last year's numbers to compare to this year's team, but to show that our offense can look good overall on paper, but that the Fenway factor made us look better than we really were last year. 

     

    The bright eyes some of us are having over our projected 2013 offensive numbers are possibly missing the fact that they will be hyper inflated by 2 factors: 

    1) We could have spectacular numbers vs LHPs.

    2) Our home numbers will likely far eclipse our road numbers.

     

    I'm not trying to penalize our offense vs RHPs because the differential between it and vs LHPs is so great. I realize it is possible to be great vs LHPs and still pretty good vs RHPs, but I'm merely voicing a concern that our offense is not balanced.

    Gomes may not play much vs RHPs, but if Sweeney takes his place, we will be losing ground to most team's LF'ers vs RHPs. If Victorino hovers around .700 vs RHPs, we will have 2 pretty big issues at positions where many teams have very good offense. Perhaps Drew can make up some ground vs RHPs from the SS offensive position, and Middlebrooks is a bit of a wild card vs RHPs for 2013. I'm hoping Salty continues to improve, and Naps & Papi stay healthy. Pedey and Ellsbury should do fine. Overall, if we stay healthy, our offense vs RHPs should not be bad, but with our starting pitching situation, I think we will need to count on a steady, consistent and balanced offense to have any real shot at making the playoffs in 2013.




    i agree with you about having a balanced offense, this scoring 14 runs 1 day and 2 runs the next isn't going to help us. Especially with a shaky rotation. But i think your concerns over our numbers vs RHP is a wee bit overblown. I think they will be solid-pretty damn good vs RHP and excellent vs LHP. But that is just a matter of perception. i don't think scoring runs is going to be an issue with us. Especially playing the majority of our games in the ALE hitters parks.

    I worry about the pitching astronomically more than our offense.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: The Great Split Divide

    In response to mef429's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

     

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    We may end up placing high up in runs scored, but if they are disproportionally vs LHPs and at home, and we will struggle vs RHPs and/or on the road, what good does it do us?

    We may end up having decent looking stats vs RHPs this year, but if you factor in the Fenway factor, my guess is we might be lucky to be near average in OPS.

    Last season we finished 8th in runs, but we were 26th on the road (last in the AL). We were also last in AL OPS on the road at .671. We were 7th at home at .788. BTW, the Yanks were 4th at home (.807) and 2nd on the road (.774).

    We'll look at this later this year. I am pretty certain this team will not be highly placed vs RHPs and will probably struggle on the road again as well.

     

     

    Last year's numbers are not a good measuring stick, with the injuries to Ortiz, Ellsbury and Middlebrooks, and the depleted lineups we had after the trade.

    As far as I can see, the only guys who project to be really weak against RHP are Victorino and Gomes.

     



    I wasn't showing last year's numbers to compare to this year's team, but to show that our offense can look good overall on paper, but that the Fenway factor made us look better than we really were last year. 

     

    The bright eyes some of us are having over our projected 2013 offensive numbers are possibly missing the fact that they will be hyper inflated by 2 factors: 

    1) We could have spectacular numbers vs LHPs.

    2) Our home numbers will likely far eclipse our road numbers.

     

    I'm not trying to penalize our offense vs RHPs because the differential between it and vs LHPs is so great. I realize it is possible to be great vs LHPs and still pretty good vs RHPs, but I'm merely voicing a concern that our offense is not balanced.

    Gomes may not play much vs RHPs, but if Sweeney takes his place, we will be losing ground to most team's LF'ers vs RHPs. If Victorino hovers around .700 vs RHPs, we will have 2 pretty big issues at positions where many teams have very good offense. Perhaps Drew can make up some ground vs RHPs from the SS offensive position, and Middlebrooks is a bit of a wild card vs RHPs for 2013. I'm hoping Salty continues to improve, and Naps & Papi stay healthy. Pedey and Ellsbury should do fine. Overall, if we stay healthy, our offense vs RHPs should not be bad, but with our starting pitching situation, I think we will need to count on a steady, consistent and balanced offense to have any real shot at making the playoffs in 2013.

     




    i agree with you about having a balanced offense, this scoring 14 runs 1 day and 2 runs the next isn't going to help us. Especially with a shaky rotation. But i think your concerns over our numbers vs RHP is a wee bit overblown. I think they will be solid-pretty damn good vs RHP and excellent vs LHP. But that is just a matter of perception. i don't think scoring runs is going to be an issue with us. Especially playing the majority of our games in the ALE hitters parks.

     

    I worry about the pitching astronomically more than our offense.



    We play half our games on the road and about 60-65% of our games vs RHPs. It's nice to be great vs LHPs and great at home, but how many games do both of those things occur? 

    30-35 times?

    I'm worried about the other 125 games of which about 50 will be on the road vs RHPs. I'm not saying our offense will be terrible vs RHPs or on the road, and I agree that our bigger worries are with our staff, but we all should be pretty certain that we will need all the offense we can get this year.

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: The Great Split Divide

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to mef429's comment:

     

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

     

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    We may end up placing high up in runs scored, but if they are disproportionally vs LHPs and at home, and we will struggle vs RHPs and/or on the road, what good does it do us?

    We may end up having decent looking stats vs RHPs this year, but if you factor in the Fenway factor, my guess is we might be lucky to be near average in OPS.

    Last season we finished 8th in runs, but we were 26th on the road (last in the AL). We were also last in AL OPS on the road at .671. We were 7th at home at .788. BTW, the Yanks were 4th at home (.807) and 2nd on the road (.774).

    We'll look at this later this year. I am pretty certain this team will not be highly placed vs RHPs and will probably struggle on the road again as well.

     

     

    Last year's numbers are not a good measuring stick, with the injuries to Ortiz, Ellsbury and Middlebrooks, and the depleted lineups we had after the trade.

    As far as I can see, the only guys who project to be really weak against RHP are Victorino and Gomes.

     



    I wasn't showing last year's numbers to compare to this year's team, but to show that our offense can look good overall on paper, but that the Fenway factor made us look better than we really were last year. 

     

    The bright eyes some of us are having over our projected 2013 offensive numbers are possibly missing the fact that they will be hyper inflated by 2 factors: 

    1) We could have spectacular numbers vs LHPs.

    2) Our home numbers will likely far eclipse our road numbers.

     

    I'm not trying to penalize our offense vs RHPs because the differential between it and vs LHPs is so great. I realize it is possible to be great vs LHPs and still pretty good vs RHPs, but I'm merely voicing a concern that our offense is not balanced.

    Gomes may not play much vs RHPs, but if Sweeney takes his place, we will be losing ground to most team's LF'ers vs RHPs. If Victorino hovers around .700 vs RHPs, we will have 2 pretty big issues at positions where many teams have very good offense. Perhaps Drew can make up some ground vs RHPs from the SS offensive position, and Middlebrooks is a bit of a wild card vs RHPs for 2013. I'm hoping Salty continues to improve, and Naps & Papi stay healthy. Pedey and Ellsbury should do fine. Overall, if we stay healthy, our offense vs RHPs should not be bad, but with our starting pitching situation, I think we will need to count on a steady, consistent and balanced offense to have any real shot at making the playoffs in 2013.

     




    i agree with you about having a balanced offense, this scoring 14 runs 1 day and 2 runs the next isn't going to help us. Especially with a shaky rotation. But i think your concerns over our numbers vs RHP is a wee bit overblown. I think they will be solid-pretty damn good vs RHP and excellent vs LHP. But that is just a matter of perception. i don't think scoring runs is going to be an issue with us. Especially playing the majority of our games in the ALE hitters parks.

     

    I worry about the pitching astronomically more than our offense.

     



    We play half our games on the road and about 60-65% of our games vs RHPs. It's nice to be great vs LHPs and great at home, but how many games do both of those things occur? 

     

    30-35 times?

    I'm worried about the other 125 games of which about 50 will be on the road vs RHPs. I'm not saying our offense will be terrible vs RHPs or on the road, and I agree that our bigger worries are with our staff, but we all should be pretty certain that we will need all the offense we can get this year.




    the only time i see our offense consistently struggle is on the west coast, in pitchers parks (namely the cavernous Oakland & Seattle parks). But the most frequent road parks we visit are hitters parks. Yankee stadium, Camden yards, Rogers centre, the Trop (more of a neutral field in terms of hitting/pitching IMO).

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: The Great Split Divide

    the only time i see our offense consistently struggle is on the west coast, in pitchers parks (namely the cavernous Oakland & Seattle parks). But the most frequent road parks we visit are hitters parks. Yankee stadium, Camden yards, Rogers centre, the Trop (more of a neutral field in terms of hitting/pitching IMO).

    Yes, we did have issues in LAA, Oak & Sea last year and beyond, but there were other parks as well...

         Gms  Runs

    Oak   6  10

    Sea   7  15

    Tex    3  6

    LAA   3  10

    NYY   9  30

    Bal     9  32

    CWS  3  11

    Tor    9  34

    TBR   9  38

     

    Our offense should be better, if we can stay healthy. That may be a big "if" with the ages and condition of some of our players. I'm hoping for the best, and I certainly worry more about our SPs than our line-up vs RHPs, but I do think we have issues in this area.

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: The Great Split Divide

    If Napoli stays healthy he could be a big help with road offense.  For his career he has a .878 road OPS.  And he has excellent numbers at Yankee Stadium and Tropicana and pretty good ones in all the AL West parks.

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: The Great Split Divide

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

    If Napoli stays healthy he could be a big help with road offense.  For his career he has a .878 road OPS.  And he has excellent numbers at Yankee Stadium and Tropicana and pretty good ones in all the AL West parks.



    Nap's a big if, but not unreasonable.

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: The Great Split Divide

    vs RHPs  3 years  2 years   2 & 3 avg

    *Likely starter

    Ortiz     1.008       .977         .990*

    Ellsb       .853       .886         .870*

    Pedey    .814       .789         .800* 

    Naps      .858       .958         .910*

    Midds    .798        .798         .800*

    Vict       .701        .705         .700*

    Drew    .763        .714         .740*

    Salty     .782        .782        .780*

    Ross      .830        .826       .830

    Gomes  .692         .693       .690

    Nava     .768        .797       .780*

    Not bad, but 4 guys with recent OPS of about .700-.780. (6 at .800 or lower)

     

    vs LHPs

    Ortiz      .841      .988       .920*

    Ellsb      .758      .774       .770*

    Pedey   .893      .934       .910*

    Naps     .912      .879       .900*

    Midds    .906      .906       .910*

    Vict       .946      .960       .950*

    Drew    .703      .617       .660*

    Salty    .597      .590       .590

    Ross     .754      .674       .710*

    Gomes  .904     .935       .920*

    Nava    .621      .613       .620

    Only 3 guys below .900!!!

     

    If we go by the rounded off average over the last 2-3 years and go with a pretty set line-up, here is what it might look like:

                     v RHPs  v LHPs

    1) Ellsbury  .870    .770     +100   (A big year like 2011 can change everything)

    2) Pedroia  .800    .910      -110   (He has had some years hitting RHPs better)

    3) Ortiz        .990    .920     +070  (His issues with lefties seems past)

    4) Napoli      .910    .900     +010  (Has been up and down, but averages pretty even)

    5) Midds     .800    .910     -110   (A big unknown, particularly vs RHPs)

    6) Victor      .700    .950    -250  (He's been one of the best OF'ers vs LHPs recently)

    7) Sal/Ross .780   .710     +070 (Ross does well vs RHPs, so Salty could get more rest)

    8) Nav/Gom .780   .920     -140 (Gomes can rake LH'd pitchers)

    9) Drew       .740   .660     +080 (Possibilities here)

     

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: The Great Split Divide

         v RHPs  v LHPs

    1) Ellsbury  .870    .770     +100  

    2) Pedroia  .800    .910      -110   

    3) Ortiz        .990    .920     +070  

    4) Napoli      .910    .900     +010  

    5) Midds     .800    .910     -110   

    6) Victor      .700    .950    -250  

    7) Sal/Ross .780   .710     +070 

    8) Nav/Gom .780   .920     -140 

    9) Drew       .740   .660     +080 

     

    The line-up vs RHPs has 5 guys at about .800 or below. While this might not seem that bad in the post-steroid era, with our starting pitching staff, we may need to do better. Conversely, our line-up vs LHPs has 6 guys at .900 or better and only 2 guys below .770 (Ross and Drew).

     

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