The Market for Ellsbury Revisited

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    The Market for Ellsbury Revisited

    If the price for Shin-Soo Choo is Trevor Bauer and the price for Mike Morse includes AJ Cole, one has to think that these one-year outfielders are becoming more and more valuable as trade commodities. After all, Bauer was ranked #9 by Baseball America last year, and Cole was ranked #57, just ahead of Xander Bogaerts.

     

    Ellsbury is certainly not coming off a stellar year, but then, neither was Morse. Choo did have a good year last year, but, like ellsbury, employs Scott Boras and in unlikely to re-sign. Apparently this means draft pick compensation is considered valuable. Personally, I think the sox might be a little better off gambling on a prospect rather than gambling on a draft pick.

     

    Whether or not there is a market for Ellsbury is another matter. Many like to cite that his “trade value” was hampered by his injuries and ineffectiveness last year. But really, there is no such thing as “trade value.” A player is worth whatever you can get for him, which is largely based on how badly Team B wants the player. So with this in mind, I am going to set my price for Ellsbury at one good pitching prospect (potential requirement: on the 2012 top 100 list) plus one MLB outfielder to replace him. I do not see the inclusion of an outfielder as a stumbling block, as any team acquiring Ellsbury would have to accommodate him in the lineup anyway.

     

    Is there a market for Ellsbury? I do not know. All I can do is see who needs outfielders or leadoff hitters and hope for a good return. I would assume any team interested in Ellsbury has aspirations for winning everything in 2012, so many teams with weak outfields, such as the Mets or Marlins, are really not in play here. However, there are a few:

     

    Tampa. As it stands now, their outfield is probably Brandon Guyer, Desmond Jennings and Matt Joyce. And their weakness will be offense. While they do have Wil Myers in the wings, presumably expected by late May, this is a team in need of help at leadoff, and it is not all that hard to improve over likely leadoff hitter Yunel Escobar. Tampa also has a very deep farm and seems to find top-ranked pitching prospects in their couch cushions. And let’s face it, if the plan for the Sox is to weaken 2013 to be even better in 2014, what better way to do so then to weaken a division rival’s future in the process? If the Sox could get Chris Archer and Matt Joyce (or Brandon Guyer) for Ellsbury, they need to make it happen. Although to be honest, I would be surprised if they could get that much. Maybe the teams could agree on Jake Odorizzi and Guyer? Would Odorizzi and Joyce be an acceptable compromise?

     

    Texas. So in the last two off-seasons, the Rangers have lost Josh Hamilton, CJ Wilson and Mike Naoli, and replaced them with Joe Nathan, Lance Berkman and Joakim Soria? And Sox fans think Cherington does not gamble enough? The Rangers are going to have to try to do something to keep up with Oakland, Anaheim and possibly even Seattle. Thank God for Houston, I guess. As of today, their OF includes David Murphy, Leonys Martin and Nelson Cruz. I am sure the Sox would love Mike Olt, but that is not going to happen. Could these teams agree on a package of Martin Perez and David Murphy? Would the Sox even settle for Perez, who was not all that impressive in AA and AAA? Would the Rangers part with Murphy, whom they are trying to extend? I really do not like Texas’ pitching prospects all that much, and I like their pitching prospects better than I like their MLB outfielders.

     

    Atlanta. Atlanta does not need a CF, but does need a leadoff hitter. One minor problem is they really do not have an OF to spare, but if the Sox could deal Ellsbury for a prospect such as Julio Teheran, I could forego that aspect of the trade. (I would assume LF Martin Prado moved to 3B.) The Braves might be amenable to dealing Randall Delgado, since they tried to move him once already for Ryan Dempster. The real stumbling block here is that the Braves are reportedly going to make a move on Justin Upton, which would preclude any interest in Ellsbury.

     

    Seattle. Really, it is hard to see exactly how their OF unfolds. Will Morse be in LF or 1B? Their other OF candidates include Mike Carp, Michael Saunders, and Casper Wells. One of these guys is already benched, and Ellsbury would give them a better leadoff option than the default Dustin Ackley. They have spare OF and good pitching prospects, but it is unlikely they take on too many one year deals for 2013. However, that is not my problem. If they send, say, Wells or Carp, plus one of the top pitching prospects (hopefully not Paxton), it would be tough to turn down. I do doubt they Mariners are willing to let so much ride on 2013 and take yet another player on a one-year deal. Ellsbury’s northwest roots are likely to be a non-factor when he signs.

     

    Milwaukee. The Brewers have 3 top 100 pitching prospects from the same list, in Wily Peralta, Taylor Jungmann and Jed Bradley. They certainly could use a boost in CF, but RF Norichika Aoki is not a bad option at leadoff. Really, even a discussion about any deal hinges on two big questions – how much faith do they have in their 2013 chances, and how much do they like Logan Schafer?

     

    White Sox. They do need to do something besides simply adding Jeff Keppinger and praying. Ellsbury is a definite upgrade to their outfield and overall offense. They do have some interesting young arms in Jose Quintana, Hector Santiago and AA pitcher Erik Johnson, and some stopgap outfielders they could send back (Alejandro de Aza, Jordan Danks). For those who think de Aza has potential to improve, he is all of 5 months younger than Ellsbury and has never had a season greater than 2.7 WAR. They have the potential to create the least exciting package of the bunch, and therefore are the most likely trading partners. I could see either Quintana or Santiago heading to Boston with de Aza as a reasonable deal. (Also, Quintana is a nice fit because Ken Harrelson frequently refers to him as “Carlos.”)

     

    That is all I can see for interest in Ellsbury. Sure, three team deals are possible, but hard to make look convincing on a message board. If I had to predict, I would say the Sox keep Ellsbury for 2013 and make a qualifying offer. And while there are some deals on this list I would make, they are probably not all as simple as that, and maybe only the White Sox really match up.

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: The Market for Ellsbury Revisited

    Great post, notin.

    Looking what other teams got for 1 year players who may not get a draft pick if those guys walk after 2013, as I believe Ellsbury will, really makes me think we should agressively shop him before 2013 begins and the draft pick vanishes.

    I'd like to see us make one move this winter that significantly helps us more for 2014 and beyond.

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: The Market for Ellsbury Revisited

    In response to notin's comment:

    Seattle. Really, it is hard to see exactly how their OF unfolds. Will Morse be in LF or 1B? Their other OF candidates include Mike Carp, Michael Saunders, and Casper Wells. One of these guys is already benched, and Ellsbury would give them a better leadoff option than the default Dustin Ackley. They have spare OF and good pitching prospects, but it is unlikely they take on too many one year deals for 2013. However, that is not my problem. If they send, say, Wells or Carp, plus one of the top pitching prospects (hopefully not Paxton), it would be tough to turn down. I do doubt they Mariners are willing to let so much ride on 2013 and take yet another player on a one-year deal. Ellsbury’s northwest roots are likely to be a non-factor when he signs.

    Other Seattle outfield candidates include likely starter Franklin Gutierrez, Raul Ibanez, Jason Bay and Eric Thames. The Mariners indeed lack a true leadoff hitter, but a one-year gamble on Jacoby Ellsbury at $9 million is unlikely.

    How about Mike Carp and 22-year-old righthander Brandon Maurer, the Southern League Most Outstanding Pitcher in 2012 despite opening the season in the same Double A starting rotation as touted prospects Taijuan Walker, Danny Hultzen and James Paxton? The Mariners might balk at that deal.

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from rkarp. Show rkarp's posts

    Re: The Market for Ellsbury Revisited

    Bourn is still available to any of these teams and he will not cost any return players, and most likley will sign for less than Ellsbury, and quite possibly offer more consistant production

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: The Market for Ellsbury Revisited

    In response to rkarp's comment:

    Bourn is still available to any of these teams and he will not cost any return players, and most likley will sign for less than Ellsbury, and quite possibly offer more consistant production




    didn't bourne get a QO? if so then we would forfeit a pick  by signing him. I would much rather have jacoby over Bourne anyway. not impressed

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from Beantowne. Show Beantowne's posts

    Re: The Market for Ellsbury Revisited

    I wouldn't rule out a deal for Ellsbury, however something tells me Cherington might hold on to him and let him play out his walk year. There's really no down side for the Sox in doing so. Dispite what many here are saying. If the sox trade him, the cost of acquiring him is at minimum a top prospect (draft compensation) plus 1 year of production valued at X.  We can debate all we want about what that production level will be and how to assign a value in terms of a player. In the end Cherington has all of the leverage, if another team sees Ellsbury as worthy of 2 players or one blue chip type. Then and only then do I see Cherington biting...otherwise we get a season of gold glove center and one of the best lead off guys in the game. One who will be highly motivated to as Oritz would say to get his numbers....

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from carnie. Show carnie's posts

    Re: The Market for Ellsbury Revisited

    As usual I can't come up with much to add to what beantowne says here.

     
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  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from seannybboi. Show seannybboi's posts

    Re: The Market for Ellsbury Revisited

    We could have got Trevor Bauer if Ells were available.... 

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from rkarp. Show rkarp's posts

    Re: The Market for Ellsbury Revisited

    In response to mef429's comment:

    In response to rkarp's comment:

     

    Bourn is still available to any of these teams and he will not cost any return players, and most likley will sign for less than Ellsbury, and quite possibly offer more consistant production

     




    didn't bourne get a QO? if so then we would forfeit a pick  by signing him. I would much rather have jacoby over Bourne anyway. not impressed

     




    you misunderstood. my comment is that one of the five teams listed in the OP could sign Bourne rather than trade for Ellsbury. Signing Bourne would not cost a return player (he would cost a draft choice) and most likely signing Bourne would come at a lower cost than signing Ellsbury after this year.

    I was not infering that the Sox should sign Bourne rather than keep or trade Ellsbury, esp with Victorino and Bradley available for CF

    that being said, I see the Mets are in on Bourne. I think I would be ok with an Ellsbury for Wheeler trade straight up, but I dont think the Mets could sign Ellsbury long term, and they would insist on that if they parted with a player of value

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: The Market for Ellsbury Revisited

    I'm not for signing Bourn, but if we traded Ellsbury for a nice prospect and signed Bourn, we would not lose our top draft pick since it is in the top 10.

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: The Market for Ellsbury Revisited

    Unless BC is blown away, I would expect to see Ells roaming CF in a Boston uniform this year.

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: The Market for Ellsbury Revisited

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    Unless BC is blown away, I would expect to see Ells roaming CF in a Boston uniform this year.



    Sadly, I agree.

    Not that I don't like watching Ellsbury, but I'd rather have someone I can watch for 3+ years instead.

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from rkarp. Show rkarp's posts

    Re: The Market for Ellsbury Revisited

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    Unless BC is blown away, I would expect to see Ells roaming CF in a Boston uniform this year.



    what does blown away mean? Is Bauer or Wheeler blown away? I think with Victorino and Bradley the Sox have to say yes to either player in a trade for Ells...not that they are being offered

    I have to think Ellsbury, like Bourne is in for a very long offseason next year with Boras thinking a deal like Kemp, but teams thinking BJ Upton deal or lower... 

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from Bill-806. Show Bill-806's posts

    Re: The Market for Ellsbury Revisited

    Jacoby need not to put his stuff on the truck.... He will be gone before spring training reports !!!

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: The Market for Ellsbury Revisited

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

     

    Unless BC is blown away, I would expect to see Ells roaming CF in a Boston uniform this year.

     



    Sadly, I agree.

     

    Not that I don't like watching Ellsbury, but I'd rather have someone I can watch for 3+ years instead.




    Yeah, me too.

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from Flapjack07. Show Flapjack07's posts

    Re: The Market for Ellsbury Revisited

    In response to rkarp's comment:

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

     

    Unless BC is blown away, I would expect to see Ells roaming CF in a Boston uniform this year.

     



    what does blown away mean? Is Bauer or Wheeler blown away? I think with Victorino and Bradley the Sox have to say yes to either player in a trade for Ells...not that they are being offered

     

    I have to think Ellsbury, like Bourne is in for a very long offseason next year with Boras thinking a deal like Kemp, but teams thinking BJ Upton deal or lower... 




    I agree...the choice would be gambling on draft pick compensation vs a guy who's already a stud pitching prospect, and I'd jump at that personally.

    I often wonder what we could have gotten for Ellsbury a winter ago, when he had two years left and his value would have been through the roof due to his superstar-quality 2011. If the team knew they weren't going to be extending him one way or the other, they should have dealt him while his value was at its all-time high.

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: The Market for Ellsbury Revisited

    In response to Flapjack07's comment:

    In response to rkarp's comment:

     

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

     

    Unless BC is blown away, I would expect to see Ells roaming CF in a Boston uniform this year.

     



    what does blown away mean? Is Bauer or Wheeler blown away? I think with Victorino and Bradley the Sox have to say yes to either player in a trade for Ells...not that they are being offered

     

    I have to think Ellsbury, like Bourne is in for a very long offseason next year with Boras thinking a deal like Kemp, but teams thinking BJ Upton deal or lower... 

     




    I agree...the choice would be gambling on draft pick compensation vs a guy who's already a stud pitching prospect, and I'd jump at that personally.

     

    I often wonder what we could have gotten for Ellsbury a winter ago, when he had two years left and his value would have been through the roof due to his superstar-quality 2011. If the team knew they weren't going to be extending him one way or the other, they should have dealt him while his value was at its all-time high.




    But then they wouldve been giving away one of their "sexy" players and the female demographic would suffer ;)

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from MadMc44. Show MadMc44's posts

    Re: The Market for Ellsbury Revisited

    I think we are overestimating the value of Ells. I think his greatest value is in Boston unless BenC can find a way to get a bidding war started.

    Boras might be able to help him. If he knows a team Boras and Ells would like to develop a market for him--someplace he would like to spend the next five years---accept the help.

    A QO for Ells is going to be $14 M next season---are you willing to keep him and potentially have him accept $14 M when you really want JBJ roaming CF.

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from carnie. Show carnie's posts

    Re: The Market for Ellsbury Revisited

    In response to MadMc44's comment:

    I think we are overestimating the value of Ells. I think his greatest value is in Boston unless BenC can find a way to get a bidding war started.

    Boras might be able to help him. If he knows a team Boras and Ells would like to develop a market for him--someplace he would like to spend the next five years---accept the help.

    A QO for Ells is going to be $14 M next season---are you willing to keep him and potentially have him accept $14 M when you really want JBJ roaming CF.



    A lot of that is going to depend on how Bradley does this year. If he tears up AA the way he did high A then a promotion to Pawtucket and a possible cup of coffee in Boston wouldn't be entirely out of the question. Were that to happen, the Sox have a couple of tradeable outfielders in Ellsbury and Victorino. If Bradley actually proves that he's knocking on the door of Fenway I'd then look for an Ellsbury trade, maybe in ST, maybe before the trading deadline.

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from rkarp. Show rkarp's posts

    Re: The Market for Ellsbury Revisited

    In response to carnie's comment:

    In response to MadMc44's comment:

     

    I think we are overestimating the value of Ells. I think his greatest value is in Boston unless BenC can find a way to get a bidding war started.

    Boras might be able to help him. If he knows a team Boras and Ells would like to develop a market for him--someplace he would like to spend the next five years---accept the help.

    A QO for Ells is going to be $14 M next season---are you willing to keep him and potentially have him accept $14 M when you really want JBJ roaming CF.

     



    A lot of that is going to depend on how Bradley does this year. If he tears up AA the way he did high A then a promotion to Pawtucket and a possible cup of coffee in Boston wouldn't be entirely out of the question. Were that to happen, the Sox have a couple of tradeable outfielders in Ellsbury and Victorino. If Bradley actually proves that he's knocking on the door of Fenway I'd then look for an Ellsbury trade, maybe in ST, maybe before the trading deadline.

     



    the flip side is Bradley tearing it up, signing Ellsbury, and trading Bradley and his affordability and control for a stud.

    I think a lot of teams like Ellsbury, but his lack of affordabilitya nd control make his current trade value non existant.

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: The Market for Ellsbury Revisited

    I think we are overestimating the value of Ells. I think his greatest value is in Boston unless BenC can find a way to get a bidding war started.

    Choo might get close to what Ellsbury got.

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from carnie. Show carnie's posts

    Re: The Market for Ellsbury Revisited

    In response to rkarp's comment:

    In response to carnie's comment:

     

    In response to MadMc44's comment:

     

    I think we are overestimating the value of Ells. I think his greatest value is in Boston unless BenC can find a way to get a bidding war started.

    Boras might be able to help him. If he knows a team Boras and Ells would like to develop a market for him--someplace he would like to spend the next five years---accept the help.

    A QO for Ells is going to be $14 M next season---are you willing to keep him and potentially have him accept $14 M when you really want JBJ roaming CF.

     



    A lot of that is going to depend on how Bradley does this year. If he tears up AA the way he did high A then a promotion to Pawtucket and a possible cup of coffee in Boston wouldn't be entirely out of the question. Were that to happen, the Sox have a couple of tradeable outfielders in Ellsbury and Victorino. If Bradley actually proves that he's knocking on the door of Fenway I'd then look for an Ellsbury trade, maybe in ST, maybe before the trading deadline.

     

     



    the flip side is Bradley tearing it up, signing Ellsbury, and trading Bradley and his affordability and control for a stud.

     

    I think a lot of teams like Ellsbury, but his lack of affordabilitya nd control make his current trade value non existant.




    That could happen too, but I'd much rather see Bradley patrolling CF in fenway as his arm is a lot better than Jacoby's.

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: The Market for Ellsbury Revisited

    I guess getting Upton appears to be off the table now.

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from carnie. Show carnie's posts

    Re: The Market for Ellsbury Revisited

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    I guess getting Upton appears to be off the table now.




    Good. He's overrated IMNSHO.

     

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