In response to notin's comment:

Whether or not there is a market for Ellsbury is another matter. Many like to cite that his “trade value” was hampered by his injuries and ineffectiveness last year. But really, there is no such thing as “trade value.” A player is worth whatever you can get for him, which is largely based on how badly Team B wants the player.

Excellent post, notin, but I do have a bit of a problem with this paragraph.  No doubt that 'trade value' is a subjective and variable, even arbitrary value that is difficult to estimate.  However the measurement difficulty does not mean that there is 'no such thing'. 

Ellsbury's trade value would certainly be higher for some teams if he had put up a 2012 season like his 2011 season.  It would be higher if he had two years till free agency instead of one.  And so on.

In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

In response to notin's comment:

Whether or not there is a market for Ellsbury is another matter. Many like to cite that his “trade value” was hampered by his injuries and ineffectiveness last year. But really, there is no such thing as “trade value.” A player is worth whatever you can get for him, which is largely based on how badly Team B wants the player.

Excellent post, notin, but I do have a bit of a problem with this paragraph.  No doubt that 'trade value' is a subjective and variable, even arbitrary value that is difficult to estimate.  However the measurement difficulty does not mean that there is 'no such thing'. 

Ellsbury's trade value would certainly be higher for some teams if he had put up a 2012 season like his 2011 season.  It would be higher if he had two years till free agency instead of one.  And so on.

I disagree. The trade value is directly related to cost control years. WIth Ellsbury, he has 1 cost control year, which definately puts a value on him. Factor in his go forward signability and his value plummets even more. At some point, the return for Ellsbury is less than the RS controlling 1 year of Ellsbury and the draft choices. I believe the RS have reached this position with Ellsbury. Therefore, his value is pretty easy to assume.

If the price for Shin-Soo Choo is Trevor Bauer and the price for Mike Morse includes AJ Cole, one has to think that these one-year outfielders are becoming more and more valuable as trade commodities. After all, Bauer was ranked #9 by Baseball America last year, and Cole was ranked #57, just ahead of Xander Bogaerts.

Ellsbury is certainly not coming off a stellar year, but then, neither was Morse. Choo did have a good year last year, but, like ellsbury, employs Scott Boras and in unlikely to re-sign. Apparently this means draft pick compensation is considered valuable. Personally, I think the sox might be a little better off gambling on a prospect rather than gambling on a draft pick.

Whether or not there is a market for Ellsbury is another matter. Many like to cite that his “trade value” was hampered by his injuries and ineffectiveness last year. But really, there is no such thing as “trade value.” A player is worth whatever you can get for him, which is largely based on how badly Team B wants the player. So with this in mind, I am going to set my price for Ellsbury at one good pitching prospect (potential requirement: on the 2012 top 100 list) plus one MLB outfielder to replace him. I do not see the inclusion of an outfielder as a stumbling block, as any team acquiring Ellsbury would have to accommodate him in the lineup anyway.

Is there a market for Ellsbury? I do not know. All I can do is see who needs outfielders or leadoff hitters and hope for a good return. I would assume any team interested in Ellsbury has aspirations for winning everything in 2012, so many teams with weak outfields, such as the Mets or Marlins, are really not in play here. However, there are a few:

Tampa. As it stands now, their outfield is probably Brandon Guyer, Desmond Jennings and Matt Joyce. And their weakness will be offense. While they do have Wil Myers in the wings, presumably expected by late May, this is a team in need of help at leadoff, and it is not all that hard to improve over likely leadoff hitter Yunel Escobar. Tampa also has a very deep farm and seems to find top-ranked pitching prospects in their couch cushions. And let’s face it, if the plan for the Sox is to weaken 2013 to be even better in 2014, what better way to do so then to weaken a division rival’s future in the process? If the Sox could get Chris Archer and Matt Joyce (or Brandon Guyer) for Ellsbury, they need to make it happen. Although to be honest, I would be surprised if they could get that much. Maybe the teams could agree on Jake Odorizzi and Guyer? Would Odorizzi and Joyce be an acceptable compromise?

Texas. So in the last two off-seasons, the Rangers have lost Josh Hamilton, CJ Wilson and Mike Naoli, and replaced them with Joe Nathan, Lance Berkman and Joakim Soria? And Sox fans think Cherington does not gamble enough? The Rangers are going to have to try to do something to keep up with Oakland, Anaheim and possibly even Seattle. Thank God for Houston, I guess. As of today, their OF includes David Murphy, Leonys Martin and Nelson Cruz. I am sure the Sox would love Mike Olt, but that is not going to happen. Could these teams agree on a package of Martin Perez and David Murphy? Would the Sox even settle for Perez, who was not all that impressive in AA and AAA? Would the Rangers part with Murphy, whom they are trying to extend? I really do not like Texas’ pitching prospects all that much, and I like their pitching prospects better than I like their MLB outfielders.

Atlanta. Atlanta does not need a CF, but does need a leadoff hitter. One minor problem is they really do not have an OF to spare, but if the Sox could deal Ellsbury for a prospect such as Julio Teheran, I could forego that aspect of the trade. (I would assume LF Martin Prado moved to 3B.) The Braves might be amenable to dealing Randall Delgado, since they tried to move him once already for Ryan Dempster. The real stumbling block here is that the Braves are reportedly going to make a move on Justin Upton, which would preclude any interest in Ellsbury.

Seattle. Really, it is hard to see exactly how their OF unfolds. Will Morse be in LF or 1B? Their other OF candidates include Mike Carp, Michael Saunders, and Casper Wells. One of these guys is already benched, and Ellsbury would give them a better leadoff option than the default Dustin Ackley. They have spare OF and good pitching prospects, but it is unlikely they take on too many one year deals for 2013. However, that is not my problem. If they send, say, Wells or Carp, plus one of the top pitching prospects (hopefully not Paxton), it would be tough to turn down. I do doubt they Mariners are willing to let so much ride on 2013 and take yet another player on a one-year deal. Ellsbury’s northwest roots are likely to be a non-factor when he signs.

Milwaukee. The Brewers have 3 top 100 pitching prospects from the same list, in Wily Peralta, Taylor Jungmann and Jed Bradley. They certainly could use a boost in CF, but RF Norichika Aoki is not a bad option at leadoff. Really, even a discussion about any deal hinges on two big questions – how much faith do they have in their 2013 chances, and how much do they like Logan Schafer?

White Sox. They do need to do something besides simply adding Jeff Keppinger and praying. Ellsbury is a definite upgrade to their outfield and overall offense. They do have some interesting young arms in Jose Quintana, Hector Santiago and AA pitcher Erik Johnson, and some stopgap outfielders they could send back (Alejandro de Aza, Jordan Danks). For those who think de Aza has potential to improve, he is all of 5 months younger than Ellsbury and has never had a season greater than 2.7 WAR. They have the potential to create the least exciting package of the bunch, and therefore are the most likely trading partners. I could see either Quintana or Santiago heading to Boston with de Aza as a reasonable deal. (Also, Quintana is a nice fit because Ken Harrelson frequently refers to him as “Carlos.”)

That is all I can see for interest in Ellsbury. Sure, three team deals are possible, but hard to make look convincing on a message board. If I had to predict, I would say the Sox keep Ellsbury for 2013 and make a qualifying offer. And while there are some deals on this list I would make, they are probably not all as simple as that, and maybe only the White Sox really match up.

Unless BC is blown away, I would expect to see Ells roaming CF in a Boston uniform this year.

Nice post, Notin, but as you mentioned, it's unlikely they move Ellsbury until at least the trade deadline.  They certainly aren't going to "downgrade" the Major League roster at this point, and although they clearly tried to move him in December, it just didn't work out.  There will definitely be interest at the deadline if the Sox are out of it, but don't bank on any Rays prospects.  Inter-division trades are pretty rare these days and Andrew Freidman literally won't trade with an AL East team, especially if it could possibly make the Sox better down the road. 

If I was a GM of a team that thinks they have a chance to win a ring but need an OF'er badly, I'd give way more for 6 months of Ellsbury plus the draft pick I'd get when he walks than just 2 months of Ellsbury and no draft pick.

In response to moonslav59's comment:

Nice post, Notin, but as you mentioned, it's unlikely they move Ellsbury until at least the trade deadline.  They certainly aren't going to "downgrade" the Major League roster at this point, and although they clearly tried to move him in December, it just didn't work out.  There will definitely be interest at the deadline if the Sox are out of it, but don't bank on any Rays prospects.  Inter-division trades are pretty rare these days and Andrew Freidman literally won't trade with an AL East team, especially if it could possibly make the Sox better down the road. 

If I was a GM of a team that thinks they have a chance to win a ring but need an OF'er badly, I'd give way more for 6 months of Ellsbury plus the draft pick I'd get when he walks than just 2 months of Ellsbury and no draft pick.

Not sure where you went with this, Moon.  The Sox definitely won't be trading Ellsbury at this point if it means lessening their chances in 2013. I see your point, but you might be surprised what an owner might force a GM to do if he thinks they can win.  See Hamilton, Josh (Artie Moreno).  That move wasn't even at the deadline...

If the price for Shin-Soo Choo is Trevor Bauer and the price for Mike Morse includes AJ Cole, one has to think that these one-year outfielders are becoming more and more valuable as trade commodities. After all, Bauer was ranked #9 by Baseball America last year, and Cole was ranked #57, just ahead of Xander Bogaerts.

Ellsbury is certainly not coming off a stellar year, but then, neither was Morse. Choo did have a good year last year, but, like ellsbury, employs Scott Boras and in unlikely to re-sign. Apparently this means draft pick compensation is considered valuable. Personally, I think the sox might be a little better off gambling on a prospect rather than gambling on a draft pick.

Whether or not there is a market for Ellsbury is another matter. Many like to cite that his “trade value” was hampered by his injuries and ineffectiveness last year. But really, there is no such thing as “trade value.” A player is worth whatever you can get for him, which is largely based on how badly Team B wants the player. So with this in mind, I am going to set my price for Ellsbury at one good pitching prospect (potential requirement: on the 2012 top 100 list) plus one MLB outfielder to replace him. I do not see the inclusion of an outfielder as a stumbling block, as any team acquiring Ellsbury would have to accommodate him in the lineup anyway.

Is there a market for Ellsbury? I do not know. All I can do is see who needs outfielders or leadoff hitters and hope for a good return. I would assume any team interested in Ellsbury has aspirations for winning everything in 2012, so many teams with weak outfields, such as the Mets or Marlins, are really not in play here. However, there are a few:

Tampa. As it stands now, their outfield is probably Brandon Guyer, Desmond Jennings and Matt Joyce. And their weakness will be offense. While they do have Wil Myers in the wings, presumably expected by late May, this is a team in need of help at leadoff, and it is not all that hard to improve over likely leadoff hitter Yunel Escobar. Tampa also has a very deep farm and seems to find top-ranked pitching prospects in their couch cushions. And let’s face it, if the plan for the Sox is to weaken 2013 to be even better in 2014, what better way to do so then to weaken a division rival’s future in the process? If the Sox could get Chris Archer and Matt Joyce (or Brandon Guyer) for Ellsbury, they need to make it happen. Although to be honest, I would be surprised if they could get that much. Maybe the teams could agree on Jake Odorizzi and Guyer? Would Odorizzi and Joyce be an acceptable compromise?

Texas. So in the last two off-seasons, the Rangers have lost Josh Hamilton, CJ Wilson and Mike Naoli, and replaced them with Joe Nathan, Lance Berkman and Joakim Soria? And Sox fans think Cherington does not gamble enough? The Rangers are going to have to try to do something to keep up with Oakland, Anaheim and possibly even Seattle. Thank God for Houston, I guess. As of today, their OF includes David Murphy, Leonys Martin and Nelson Cruz. I am sure the Sox would love Mike Olt, but that is not going to happen. Could these teams agree on a package of Martin Perez and David Murphy? Would the Sox even settle for Perez, who was not all that impressive in AA and AAA? Would the Rangers part with Murphy, whom they are trying to extend? I really do not like Texas’ pitching prospects all that much, and I like their pitching prospects better than I like their MLB outfielders.

Atlanta. Atlanta does not need a CF, but does need a leadoff hitter. One minor problem is they really do not have an OF to spare, but if the Sox could deal Ellsbury for a prospect such as Julio Teheran, I could forego that aspect of the trade. (I would assume LF Martin Prado moved to 3B.) The Braves might be amenable to dealing Randall Delgado, since they tried to move him once already for Ryan Dempster. The real stumbling block here is that the Braves are reportedly going to make a move on Justin Upton, which would preclude any interest in Ellsbury.

Seattle. Really, it is hard to see exactly how their OF unfolds. Will Morse be in LF or 1B? Their other OF candidates include Mike Carp, Michael Saunders, and Casper Wells. One of these guys is already benched, and Ellsbury would give them a better leadoff option than the default Dustin Ackley. They have spare OF and good pitching prospects, but it is unlikely they take on too many one year deals for 2013. However, that is not my problem. If they send, say, Wells or Carp, plus one of the top pitching prospects (hopefully not Paxton), it would be tough to turn down. I do doubt they Mariners are willing to let so much ride on 2013 and take yet another player on a one-year deal. Ellsbury’s northwest roots are likely to be a non-factor when he signs.

Milwaukee. The Brewers have 3 top 100 pitching prospects from the same list, in Wily Peralta, Taylor Jungmann and Jed Bradley. They certainly could use a boost in CF, but RF Norichika Aoki is not a bad option at leadoff. Really, even a discussion about any deal hinges on two big questions – how much faith do they have in their 2013 chances, and how much do they like Logan Schafer?

White Sox. They do need to do something besides simply adding Jeff Keppinger and praying. Ellsbury is a definite upgrade to their outfield and overall offense. They do have some interesting young arms in Jose Quintana, Hector Santiago and AA pitcher Erik Johnson, and some stopgap outfielders they could send back (Alejandro de Aza, Jordan Danks). For those who think de Aza has potential to improve, he is all of 5 months younger than Ellsbury and has never had a season greater than 2.7 WAR. They have the potential to create the least exciting package of the bunch, and therefore are the most likely trading partners. I could see either Quintana or Santiago heading to Boston with de Aza as a reasonable deal. (Also, Quintana is a nice fit because Ken Harrelson frequently refers to him as “Carlos.”)

That is all I can see for interest in Ellsbury. Sure, three team deals are possible, but hard to make look convincing on a message board. If I had to predict, I would say the Sox keep Ellsbury for 2013 and make a qualifying offer. And while there are some deals on this list I would make, they are probably not all as simple as that, and maybe only the White Sox really match up.

In response to jasko2248's comment:

In response to moonslav59's comment:

Nice post, Notin, but as you mentioned, it's unlikely they move Ellsbury until at least the trade deadline.  They certainly aren't going to "downgrade" the Major League roster at this point, and although they clearly tried to move him in December, it just didn't work out.  There will definitely be interest at the deadline if the Sox are out of it, but don't bank on any Rays prospects.  Inter-division trades are pretty rare these days and Andrew Freidman literally won't trade with an AL East team, especially if it could possibly make the Sox better down the road. 

If I was a GM of a team that thinks they have a chance to win a ring but need an OF'er badly, I'd give way more for 6 months of Ellsbury plus the draft pick I'd get when he walks than just 2 months of Ellsbury and no draft pick.

Not sure where you went with this, Moon.  The Sox definitely won't be trading Ellsbury at this point if it means lessening their chances in 2013. I see your point, but you might be surprised what an owner might force a GM to do if he thinks they can win.  See Hamilton, Josh (Artie Moreno).  That move wasn't even at the deadline...

It's not definite, but I admit it is highly unlikely at this point that Jacoby is traded before the season begins.

I do think a GM might give a lot for Ellsbury at the deadline (or before) if Jacoby is doing well and a GM thinks he is a "Jacoby away" from a ring. I get that. I also know that if Jacoby is not doing well, we'll be left with only the draft pick going onward. 

It's a gamble either way. My position nis to trade him before day 1, but I am nearly certain Ben is not on my page. Secretly, he may know that we are just pretenders this year, but he wants to keep viewership high. I understand this is a business, but that doesn't mean I have to agree with the strategy.

In response to moonslav59's comment:

In response to jasko2248's comment:

In response to moonslav59's comment:

Nice post, Notin, but as you mentioned, it's unlikely they move Ellsbury until at least the trade deadline.  They certainly aren't going to "downgrade" the Major League roster at this point, and although they clearly tried to move him in December, it just didn't work out.  There will definitely be interest at the deadline if the Sox are out of it, but don't bank on any Rays prospects.  Inter-division trades are pretty rare these days and Andrew Freidman literally won't trade with an AL East team, especially if it could possibly make the Sox better down the road. 

If I was a GM of a team that thinks they have a chance to win a ring but need an OF'er badly, I'd give way more for 6 months of Ellsbury plus the draft pick I'd get when he walks than just 2 months of Ellsbury and no draft pick.

Not sure where you went with this, Moon.  The Sox definitely won't be trading Ellsbury at this point if it means lessening their chances in 2013. I see your point, but you might be surprised what an owner might force a GM to do if he thinks they can win.  See Hamilton, Josh (Artie Moreno).  That move wasn't even at the deadline...

It's not definite, but I admit it is highly unlikely at this point that Jacoby is traded before the season begins.

I do think a GM might give a lot for Ellsbury at the deadline (or before) if Jacoby is doing well and a GM thinks he is a "Jacoby away" from a ring. I get that. I also know that if Jacoby is not doing well, we'll be left with only the draft pick going onward. 

It's a gamble either way. My position nis to trade him before day 1, but I am nearly certain Ben is not on my page. Secretly, he may know that we are just pretenders this year, but he wants to keep viewership high. I understand this is a business, but that doesn't mean I have to agree with the strategy.

I agree.  "Viewership" is all part of it.  I'm pretty sure they feel they have the "talent" to "compete" if things break right, and I don't think it's any secret that the entire organization feels that they could really use a "drama free" year.  It's a good sign that Morales and Doubront are already in camp and everyone else is expected to get there early.  John Farrell has visited pretty much everyone at their homes already and discussed different roles, what's expected, etc...Farrell said he expects Victorino to bat 2nd or 6th, depending on the pitcher, which should make you happy.  That said, as a fan, it may be a little boring.  I miss the days when Pedro had a grandmother die right before every spring training for 7 straight years!

In response to jasko2248's comment:

In response to moonslav59's comment:

In response to jasko2248's comment:

In response to moonslav59's comment:

Nice post, Notin, but as you mentioned, it's unlikely they move Ellsbury until at least the trade deadline.  They certainly aren't going to "downgrade" the Major League roster at this point, and although they clearly tried to move him in December, it just didn't work out.  There will definitely be interest at the deadline if the Sox are out of it, but don't bank on any Rays prospects.  Inter-division trades are pretty rare these days and Andrew Freidman literally won't trade with an AL East team, especially if it could possibly make the Sox better down the road. 

If I was a GM of a team that thinks they have a chance to win a ring but need an OF'er badly, I'd give way more for 6 months of Ellsbury plus the draft pick I'd get when he walks than just 2 months of Ellsbury and no draft pick.

Not sure where you went with this, Moon.  The Sox definitely won't be trading Ellsbury at this point if it means lessening their chances in 2013. I see your point, but you might be surprised what an owner might force a GM to do if he thinks they can win.  See Hamilton, Josh (Artie Moreno).  That move wasn't even at the deadline...

It's not definite, but I admit it is highly unlikely at this point that Jacoby is traded before the season begins.

I do think a GM might give a lot for Ellsbury at the deadline (or before) if Jacoby is doing well and a GM thinks he is a "Jacoby away" from a ring. I get that. I also know that if Jacoby is not doing well, we'll be left with only the draft pick going onward. 

It's a gamble either way. My position nis to trade him before day 1, but I am nearly certain Ben is not on my page. Secretly, he may know that we are just pretenders this year, but he wants to keep viewership high. I understand this is a business, but that doesn't mean I have to agree with the strategy.

I agree.  "Viewership" is all part of it.  I'm pretty sure they feel they have the "talent" to "compete" if things break right, and I don't think it's any secret that the entire organization feels that they could really use a "drama free" year.  It's a good sign that Morales and Doubront are already in camp and everyone else is expected to get there early.  John Farrell has visited pretty much everyone at their homes already and discussed different roles, what's expected, etc...Farrell said he expects Victorino to bat 2nd or 6th, depending on the pitcher, which should make you happy.  That said, as a fan, it may be a little boring.  I miss the days when Pedro had a grandmother die right before every spring training for 7 straight years!

I like the Ferrell addition and think he will help.

I like SV batting 2nd vs LHPs and maybe 7th or 9th vs RHPs, but 6th is better than keeping him top 2 vs most righties.

I actually think we could have traded Ellsbury and maybe Salty and one of Miller or Morales for a player under team control for 3+ years that could have helped us in 2013 as well, but more likely they'd be dealt for prospects and 2013 would be worse for the wear. The other possibility would have been to trade Ellsbury & Salty for a nice prospect (Seatlle needs a CF'er and Catcher) and then use the money saved to get an OF'er to take Jacoby's place. 

The Sox definitely gauged the market for Salty and Ellsbury this offseason, but the interest was supposedly "luke warm" at best.  They weren't going to just flip them for prospects (if they even could have) and project a "rebuild" image.  It's just not reality.  They offered Ellsbury for Cliff Lee with the idea that they could possibly take a shot on overpaying Hamilton for 3 years.  Then Artie Moreno got silly and gave him a "Crawford overpay." 

I'd like to know what teams offered for Ells and Salty.

The Cliff Lee trade offer was not what I had in mind, unless they paid us a ton of money.

We "projected a rebuild image" with the Dodger trade, and fans got excited for the most part, though some were clearly bummed and wanted us to repeat the past mistakes again this winter during a weak FA class.

The Dodger trade may have "projected rebuild," but that wasn't their thinking at all.  Gonzalez and Beckett weren't coming back regardless.  They hoped to get the best out of Crawford moving forward and they are still in shock the Dodgers made that deal.  They are well aware that they have a solid talent "core" and 2012 was an aberration of injuries and complete dysfunction from day one, due in part to the "Valentine disaster." 

I think if we had traded Ells and Salty for prospects, and used the money to close the gap a little between signing SV or Hamilton, fans would have watched more than now. (Note: I did not want Hamilton or Greinke.)

They seriously considered taking a risk on Hamilton at 3 years, but there was no way they were going 4 or 5.  It was pretty simple.  You don't like Victorino for some reason, maybe it's because you seem to think clubhouse chemistry doesn't matter, but I'll take Victorino twice on Sunday over Pagan, and so would anybody I talked to.  Then again, Pagan was never even a consideration. Take away a red hot August/September of last year, and he's basically Coco Crisp with a lesser glove. 

They don't NEED to trade Salty, as they aren't ready to let Lavarnway catch 100 games at the big league level.  If they got a return where they felt they were selling high, then maybe, but he's probably not going anywhere at this point either.  The roster is likely close to set, outside of some "depth" deals and a 1st baseman/OF who can it righties, but that maty not even happen until well into spring training...

If Lava took Salty's place, he'd play 60 games vs LH'd starters, and D Ross would play 100 vs RHPs (which he is slightly better against career anyways). 

I'm OK with keeping Salty, if we extend him or plan to re-sign him next winter (which could be Ben's plan), but if not, I don't see the point.

They don't want a 36 year old Ross significantly increasing his workload and catching 100 games.  That makes no sense.  He is a tremendous backup, and he may catch 60 or 70 games for this team, but there's no way they want him catching 100.  How does Lavarnway "catching 60 games" do anything to help his progression as a catcher?!?!  Unlike this board, they still have high hopes for Lavarnway.  He needs reps.  He's a brilliant guy with a great work ethic.  The Sox will show some patience here, as they should...

I think once Bourn finds a home  Ells fate will be soon determined. Boras will get Bourn settled before ST and the competition will start for Ells. BenC needs to start planting the seeds NOW and not wait.

In response to southpaw777's comment:
 My concern is  BenC seems to be a "Day late and a dollar short." Overvaluing his personnel and underestimating the value of other teams players.

JUp is an example: he wasn't coming to Boston anyway, but not thinking Boggie, our top prospect, should have been in a package for a proven player, a star for another team. Some might say it's posturing on Ben's part--I'm not so sure.

In response to MadMc44's comment:

I think once Bourn finds a home  Ells fate will be soon determined. Boras will get Bourn settled before ST and the competition will start for Ells. BenC needs to start planting the seeds NOW and not wait.

Those seeds have been planted already Mad. Just waiting to see if they bloom or not.

Do you think Bourn is better than Ells and ShaVic and better than JBJ?

Then do you think it would be worth a one year offer to Bourn and trade Ells?  There would be no comp for Bourn and a change of scenery might be great incentive on a one year deal.

In addition you've potentially got money saved with Nap's contract--sweeten the pot a little by  saying there will be no QO if he signs here.