**There has been much debate about where the fault lies on the Sox lack of success this year and in 2011: the offense (or unbalanced scoring) or the pitching (and defense).**

**I went back and combined the total AL record of 2011 and 2012 for each game based on how many runs were scored and how many runs were allowed. This gives us the normal expectation for winning when a given team scores a certain amount of runs or lets up a certain amount of runs. I then aplied that league norm winning percentage to what the results the Sox got for each subgroup of runs scored and runs let up. The differential, in theory, will show if we should have won more or less on any given run number scored or allowed. This data can be used to assign "blame" to the offense or the defense depending on what side of the differential we fell on.**

**(Side note: A winning team should do better than the norm on offense and defense. Breaking even would, in theory, lead a team to an 81-81 record, but for argument's sake, whichever side of the equation if farther from the norm-good or badly, should determine who is more at fault: the offense or the defense.)**

**The pitching is assigned plus or minus wins as related to how much run support they got. The offense is assigned plus or minus wins as related to how many runs our staff allowed.**

**Here's the data:**

**2012 Pitching Plus/Minus**

**Runs scored by offense**

**Runs/AL win%11-12/Tot. Gms/Expected wins/Sox W's/ Differential**

**0 .000 2 .000 0 .000**

**1 .102 3 .306 1 +.694**

**2 .219 4 .876 0 - .876**

**3 .364 4 1.456 0 -1.456**

**4 .537 2 1.074 1 - .074**

**5 .648 0 .000 0 .000**

**6 .693 3 2.079 2 -.079**

**7 .804 1 .804 1 +.196**

**8 .887 0 .000 0 .000**

**9 .907 1 .907 0 -.907**

**10 .926 2 1.852 2 +.148**

**11+ .991 5 4.955 4 -.955**

**The only subgroup where we have more wins than the league norm expectation is when we scored 1 run, 7 runs, and 10 runs. The total combined amount of wins we gained in those 3 sub groups was 1.038**

**(in red) or just over 1 win gained by better than norm results. In games where our staff won less than expectations based on the league norm, our staff lost a total of 4.347 (in black). Ta he net plus/minus comes to ...**

**MINUS 3.309 WINS**

**In other words, we should have won 3.3 more games based on game by game results and the amount of runs we scored.**

**2012 Offense Plus/Minus:**

**Runs allowed by pitching and defense.**

**Runs/AL win% 11-12/Tot. Gms/Expected wins/Sox W's/ Differential**

**0 1.000 1 1.000 1 .000**

**1 .901 1 .901 0 -.901**

**2 .787 3 2.361 3 +.639**

**3 .615 4 2.460 2 -.460**

**4 .466 3 1.398 1 -.398**

**5 .354 3 1.062 2 +.938**

**6 .260 5 1.300 2 +.700**

**7 .196 1 .196 0 -.196**

**8 .120 1 .120 0 -.120**

**9 .081 1 .081 0 -.081**

**10 .090 1 .090 0 -.090**

**11+ .009 3 .027 0 -.027**

**The net Plus/Minus for our offense:**

**MINUS .001 WINS (or basically status quo with the rest of the AL)**

**In summary, the offense has won/lost no games for us overall. The pitching has lost 3+ games for the team.**

**Later, I will do a study of 2011 ans Sept of 2011 as well. Stay tuned!**