The Red Sox Pitchers Now & the Future

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    The Red Sox Pitchers Now & the Future

    There is no position on the Sox in higher need than our pitching staff. Some clowns have been arguing that our bats are the problem, or that our lack of timely hitting and consistency of the offense is our biggest need. It's always about the pitching... always.

    I was going to break this down into starters and bullpen, but with Bard and Doubront as "tweeners", I'll just lump the whole sorry bunch into one analysis.

    All winter long, I argued for making a deal to get at least a top quality 3rd starter. I mentioned a few names, most notably, Gavin Floyd and to some extent the Wandy Rodriguez and Jeremy Guthrie types. This would have allowed Bard to stay in the pen and lessen the blow of losing Papelbon.

    The gain of Bailey, Melancon, and others along with full seasons by Morales, Tazawa and others could have helped make up for Papelbon, but injuries and ineffectiveness has not made that happen thus far.

    Here's a breakdown of what we have now and what our near and distant future looks like:
    (Salary based on avg of contract)

    Now:
    Beckett  32 ($17M '12-'14)
    Lester     28 ($6M '12-'13 & club option for '14 at $13M/ $0.25M buyout)
    Buchholtz
    Matsusaka  31  ($8M '12 then FA)
    Lackey (Inj) 33 ($16.5M '12-'14 and club option at min wage '15)
    Doubront 24 ($484K then 2 pre-arb & 3 Arbs to '17)
    D. Bard  27 ($1.6M then 3 Arb years '13-'15)  
    Aceves  29 ($1.2M then 2 Arb years '13-'14)
    Bailey   28  ($3.9M then 2 Arb years '13-'14)
    Morales 26 ($850K then 2 Arbs '13-'14)
    Melancon 27 ($521K then pre-arb, then 3 Arbs '14-'16)
    B Jenks  31 ($6M '12 then FA)
    Padilla    34 ($1.5M then FA)
    A Cook   33 ($minor league deal and FA in '13)
    M Albers 29 ($1.08M then Arb '13)
    A Miller    27 ($1.04M then Arb '13-'14)
    Tazawa   26  ($920K then 4 Arbs '13-'16)
    R Hill        32 ($725K then Arb '13)
    Thomas  28  ($516K then FA)
    Atchison 36 ($510K then 2 Arbs '13-'14)
    Mortensen 27 (487K then 2 pre-arb and 3 ARbs to '17)
    "Post Prospects":
    Ohlendorf  29 (minor league deal then FA in '13)
    Duckworth 36 (minor league deal then FA in '13)
    Germano    30
    Mathis         28
    G Mock        28
    J Carlson    31
    T Pena         31
    B. Buckner 28
    J Maine       30
    Saying we need a quality 3rd starter type and a closer is an understatement. We should all know by now, that this is and has been our highest need area for years. The future isn't too bright either, beyond maybe 2-3 propsects.

    The Future:
    (ranking and grades based on soxprospects.com)
    3) Anthony Ranaudo 22 (5-9)
    4) Matt Barnes 21 (5-9)
    (13 is Doubront & Tazawa 19... see "Now")
    14) Alex Wilson 25 (5-7) Perhaps the only prospect that could help now.
    17) Stolmy Pimentel 22(3-8)
    20) Henry Owens 19 (3-8)
    21) Drake Britton  22 (3-9)
    24) Brandon Workman 23 ( 3-8)
    31) Cody Kukuk 19 (3-8)
    34) Noe Ramirez 22 (3-8)
    35) Frank Montas 19 (3-8)
    39) Madison Younginer 21 (3-8)
    41) Chris Hernandez (3-6)
    42) Chris Balcom-Miller (3-6)
    43) Aaron Kurcz (3-5)
    45) Keith Couch (3-7)
    46) Miguel Celstino (2-6)
    48) Chris Carpenter (3-6)
    50) Josh Fields (2-6) 

    Not a very promising bunch here, but maybe a couple of guys will rise to occasion.

    Looking beyond 2012, we are losing Dice-K and Jenks and a few of the projects. We need some pitching help from the outside or we will be left with this:
    2013
    S1) Beckett
    S2) Lester
    S3) Buchholtz
    S4) Lackey
    S5) Doubront
    S6) AMiller/Mortensen/AWilson/Ranaudo/Barnes
    R1) Bard
    R2) Aceves
    R3) Bailey
    R4) Morales
    R5) Melancon
    R6) RHill/Tazawa/Albers/Atchison

    Not pretty, but not so bad that 2 nice pick-ups couldn't make this a formidable staff.



     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from jimedfred. Show jimedfred's posts

    Re: The Red Sox Pitchers Now & the Future

    So the Jenks contract, although a complete waste of $ 12 mil, doesn't really look as bad as Beckett & Lackey's. I guess Theo rewarded Beckett for one Cy Young-caliber 2007 with way too many dollars AND years !
    Although bbreference shows Beckett a FA after 2014.

    Barnes and Ranaudo could help in 2 or 3 years, but Wilson & rest look unpromising at best. Pimental & Britton have taken major steps backward. Owens numbers are all over the map. Unless Workman, Younginer, Ramirez or possibly Balcolm-Miller suddenly learn to pitch, we're in real trouble.
    Of course, Mortensen, Ohlendorf or Germano may wake up tomorrow suddenly imbued with talent.Any real improvement for 2013 will have to be from them, and somehow we'd need to move one or both of those ridiculous contracts out.

    If I were John Henry I'd find it difficult to justify big FA contracts for Cole Hamels or anyone similar. Do we wish we'd kept Masterson & Hagadone over getting V-mart yet ?
     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: The Red Sox Pitchers Now & the Future

    In Response to Re: The Red Sox Pitchers Now & the Future:
    So the Jenks contract, although a complete waste of $ 12 mil, doesn't really look as bad as Beckett & Lackey's. I guess Theo rewarded Beckett for one Cy Young-caliber 2007 with way too many dollars AND years ! Although bbreference shows Beckett a FA after 2014. Barnes and Ranaudo could help in 2 or 3 years, but Wilson & rest look unpromising at best. Pimental & Britton have taken major steps backward. Owens numbers are all over the map. Unless Workman, Younginer, Ramirez or possibly Balcolm-Miller suddenly learn to pitch, we're in real trouble. Of course, Mortensen, Ohlendorf or Germano may wake up tomorrow suddenly imbued with talent.Any real improvement for 2013 will have to be from them, and somehow we'd need to move one or both of those ridiculous contracts out. If I were John Henry I'd find it difficult to justify big FA contracts for Cole Hamels or anyone similar. Do we wish we'd kept Masterson & Hagadone over getting V-mart yet ?
    Posted by jimedfred

    I think the best way to improve from the outside is via trade not big ticket free agency.

    I'm not counting on Ranaudo or Barnes or any of the closer to MLB ready prospects to be any help in '13 or '14. I do think we still have a decent core of 5-6 pitchers, but no Pedro, No Foulke, no Schill.



     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from andrewmitch. Show andrewmitch's posts

    Re: The Red Sox Pitchers Now & the Future

    Beckett is not signed through 2018...............
     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from andrewmitch. Show andrewmitch's posts

    Re: The Red Sox Pitchers Now & the Future

    Of course it's about the pitching

    Buck is the biggest concern in the rotation

    Everyone in the pen right now is not effective

    But, don't over estimate the hitting so far.  You take Ortiz out of that line up and they are not a good offensive team as of right now.....
     
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  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: The Red Sox Pitchers Now & the Future

    In Response to Re: The Red Sox Pitchers Now & the Future:
    Beckett is not signed through 2018...............
    Posted by andrewmitch

    Correction made. Thanks.
     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: The Red Sox Pitchers Now & the Future

    We might start hearing about Chris Hernandez before the year is over. He has questionable stuff but he keeps putting up good numbers. Mortensen maybe. Ranaudo and Barnes are probably a year away realistically. Ranaudo may never be as projected. I think Tazawa can help us.
     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: The Red Sox Pitchers Now & the Future

    Mortensen has ML experience already, but I'm not counting on any help this year.
     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from hankwilliamsjr. Show hankwilliamsjr's posts

    Re: The Red Sox Pitchers Now & the Future

    It's always about the pitching... always.

    When the Red Sox pitch well, 3 runs or less, they are losing 60% of the time. When they score 4 runs or more, they are winning 66% of the time.

    Some stooges don't remember the everyday core members of 2004 and 2007.
     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from Chilliwings. Show Chilliwings's posts

    Re: The Red Sox Pitchers Now & the Future

    In Response to Re: The Red Sox Pitchers Now & the Future:
    It's always about the pitching... always. When the Red Sox pitch well, 3 runs or less, they are losing 60% of the time. When they score 4 runs or more, they are winning 66% of the time. Some stooges don't remember the everyday core members of 2004 and 2007.
    Posted by hankwilliamsjr


    1) absurdly small sample sizes
    2) even the great hitting teams like the Sox, Yankees and Rangers will not infrequently be shut down/minimised by good pitching

    Still waiting for your ideas on which superstar RH hitter the Sox should pursue and exactly what you suggest to trade for them - none of your "blocked prospect" evasiveness, real names.

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: The Red Sox Pitchers Now & the Future

    In Response to Re: The Red Sox Pitchers Now & the Future:
    It's always about the pitching... always. When the Red Sox pitch well, 3 runs or less, they are losing 60% of the time. When they score 4 runs or more, they are winning 66% of the time. Some stooges don't remember the everyday core members of 2004 and 2007.
    Posted by hankwilliamsjr


    1) absurdly small sample sizes
    2) even the great hitting teams like the Sox, Yankees and Rangers will not infrequently be shut down/minimised by good pitching

    Still waiting for your ideas on which superstar RH hitter the Sox should pursue and exactly what you suggest to trade for them - none of your "blocked prospect" evasiveness, real names.

    I guess the clown forgot about the game our hitters spotted the staff 9 runs...
     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from ma6dragon9. Show ma6dragon9's posts

    Re: The Red Sox Pitchers Now & the Future

    I don't think the Sox should make a trade for anyone unless they are in the 26/27 year old range, and will be here for a while.

    I'm excited to see both Tazawa and Doubront get some chances. Tazawa was intriguing to me when he came from Japan - he turned down other offers ebcause he idolized DiceK - then had TJ surgery. I think he may be a very nice surprise in about a year when he's totally and fully back form surgery.

    Doubront is only 24, and I feel has progressed nicely and is just coming into the age where I'd expect a pitcher to start to get it going, if he's going to.

    Lester I love right now, and going forward. Ranaudo and Matt Barnes have good reports everywhere you look, and Pimental, for whatever reason, I think is going to be good.

    For 2014, I think those guys will make up the bulk of the rotation, and I'm ok with that. What I DON'T want to see is these guys, or others, dealt for some bandaid fixes (ahem, Byrd...Bowden couldn't help this bullpen? When has anyone seen enough of him to know?).

    We could have restacked the deck starting in 2010...I think they were going to, and while some wanted to (Epstein), others overreacted to the fan overreaction to the term "bridge year" and scrambled for Lackey and Cameron to placate their piggybank...errr, Sox fans. The timeline is interesting when you see how everything played out. Epstein comented it wasn't going to be a big FA year, let "Bridge year" slip out, fans totally freaked out, soon thereafter the press conferences for Lackey, Cameron, Scutaro (who I think was coming regardless) and Beltre (who came here on a one year, comparatively low salary to earn a contract).
     
     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: The Red Sox Pitchers Now & the Future

    In Response to Re: The Red Sox Pitchers Now & the Future:
    I don't think the Sox should make a trade for anyone unless they are in the 26/27 year old range, and will be here for a while. I'm excited to see both Tazawa and Doubront get some chances. Tazawa was intriguing to me when he came from Japan - he turned down other offers ebcause he idolized DiceK - then had TJ surgery. I think he may be a very nice surprise in about a year when he's totally and fully back form surgery. Doubront is only 24, and I feel has progressed nicely and is just coming into the age where I'd expect a pitcher to start to get it going, if he's going to. Lester I love right now, and going forward. Ranaudo and Matt Barnes have good reports everywhere you look, and Pimental, for whatever reason, I think is going to be good. For 2014, I think those guys will make up the bulk of the rotation, and I'm ok with that. What I DON'T want to see is these guys, or others, dealt for some bandaid fixes (ahem, Byrd...Bowden couldn't help this bullpen? When has anyone seen enough of him to know?). We could have restacked the deck starting in 2010...I think they were going to, and while some wanted to (Epstein), others overreacted to the fan overreaction to the term "bridge year" and scrambled for Lackey and Cameron to placate their piggybank...errr, Sox fans. The timeline is interesting when you see how everything played out. Epstein comented it wasn't going to be a big FA year, let "Bridge year" slip out, fans totally freaked out, soon thereafter the press conferences for Lackey, Cameron, Scutaro (who I think was coming regardless) and Beltre (who came here on a one year, comparatively low salary to earn a contract).  
    Posted by ma6dragon9

    It's hard to find quality 26-27 year old pitchers without giving up the world for them.

    We do have a nice young nucleus on the staff right now, but I don't really count on Ranaudo or Pimental to help. Barnes might help, but not in the near future.

    Doubront 24
    Morales 26
    Tazawa 26
    Buchholz 27
    D Bard 27
    Melancon 27
    Lester 28
    Bailey 28
    Aceves 29

    We lose Dice-K and Jenks this winter and gain back Lackey.
     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from ma6dragon9. Show ma6dragon9's posts

    Re: The Red Sox Pitchers Now & the Future

    In Response to Re: The Red Sox Pitchers Now & the Future:
    In Response to  Re: The Red Sox Pitchers Now & the Future : I don't think the Sox should make a trade for anyone unless they are in the 26/27 year old range, and will be here for a while. I'm excited to see both Tazawa and Doubront get some chances. Tazawa was intriguing to me when he came from Japan - he turned down other offers ebcause he idolized DiceK - then had TJ surgery. I think he may be a very nice surprise in about a year when he's totally and fully back form surgery. Doubront is only 24, and I feel has progressed nicely and is just coming into the age where I'd expect a pitcher to start to get it going, if he's going to. Lester I love right now, and going forward. Ranaudo and Matt Barnes have good reports everywhere you look, and Pimental, for whatever reason, I think is going to be good. For 2014, I think those guys will make up the bulk of the rotation, and I'm ok with that. What I DON'T want to see is these guys, or others, dealt for some bandaid fixes (ahem, Byrd...Bowden couldn't help this bullpen? When has anyone seen enough of him to know?). We could have restacked the deck starting in 2010...I think they were going to, and while some wanted to (Epstein), others overreacted to the fan overreaction to the term "bridge year" and scrambled for Lackey and Cameron to placate their piggybank...errr, Sox fans. The timeline is interesting when you see how everything played out. Epstein comented it wasn't going to be a big FA year, let "Bridge year" slip out, fans totally freaked out, soon thereafter the press conferences for Lackey, Cameron, Scutaro (who I think was coming regardless) and Beltre (who came here on a one year, comparatively low salary to earn a contract).   Posted by ma6dragon9 It's hard to find quality 26-27 year old pitchers without giving up the world for them. We do have a nice young nucleus on the staff right now, but I don't really count on Ranaudo or Pimental to help. Barnes might help, but not in the near future. Doubront 24 Morales 26 Tazawa 26 Buchholz 27 D Bard 27 Melancon 27 Lester 28 Bailey 28 Aceves 29 We lose Dice-K and Jenks this winter and gain back Lackey.
    Posted by moonslav59



    Edit: ...a-gain lose a roster spot to Lackey and a significant chunk of payroll. Haha. Couldn't resist.

    I agree about what it takes to get a pitcher of that age, either (if it's me) you pay that price, or deal with what you have. It's not worth paying a comparable price for a 30+ year old guy to me.
     
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  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from Dublin_Sox. Show Dublin_Sox's posts

    Re: The Red Sox Pitchers Now & the Future

    In response to "Re: The Red Sox Pitchers Now & the Future":
    Of course it's about the pitching Buck is the biggest concern in the rotation Everyone in the pen right now is not effective But, don't over estimate the hitting so far.  You take Ortiz out of that line up and they are not a good offensive team as of right now..... Posted by andrewmitch
    There isnt one pitcher in the rotation or the pen that I can confidently say will have an era under 4.5, not one of them.
     
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  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from jimedfred. Show jimedfred's posts

    Re: The Red Sox Pitchers Now & the Future

    In Response to Re: The Red Sox Pitchers Now & the Future:
    In Response to Re: The Red Sox Pitchers Now & the Future : Wasn't that dog in an avatar here last year? Was it JamieSox or something similar?
    Posted by Calzone65

    That dog is on next week's White House menu when the Korean ambassador visits.

    Come on, Lester, Beckett and Doubront will finish with ERA's under 4.50.
     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from Dublin_Sox. Show Dublin_Sox's posts

    Re: The Red Sox Pitchers Now & the Future

    In response to "Re: The Red Sox Pitchers Now & the Future":
    In Response to Re: The Red Sox Pitchers Now & the Future : Wasn't that dog in an avatar here last year? Was it JamieSox or something similar? Posted by Calzone65
    Yeah I always have issues logging into this website do had to set up a new email and user name. Happens every year to me, no idea why.
     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: The Red Sox Pitchers Now & the Future

    Edit: ...a-gain lose a roster spot to Lackey and a significant chunk of payroll. Haha. Couldn't resist. 

    I agree about what it takes to get a pitcher of that age, either (if it's me) you pay that price, or deal with what you have. It's not worth paying a comparable price for a 30+ year old guy to me.

    How many 26-27 year old pitchers are known to be great? Of those, what team is looking to trade them away? 

    I love the idea, but I'm not sure it is doable.

    Pedro Martinez deals are miracles. (We got him at 26.)

    We also got Josh Beckett at 26, so I guess it might happen more than I think...
     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from BurritoT. Show BurritoT's posts

    Re: The Red Sox Pitchers Now & the Future

    we got both from pay-roll strapped teams... if ther were equality we never would have had either of them.
     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from ma6dragon9. Show ma6dragon9's posts

    Re: The Red Sox Pitchers Now & the Future

    In Response to Re: The Red Sox Pitchers Now & the Future:
    Edit: ...a-gain lose a roster spot to Lackey and a significant chunk of payroll. Haha. Couldn't resist.  I agree about what it takes to get a pitcher of that age, either (if it's me) you pay that price, or deal with what you have. It's not worth paying a comparable price for a 30+ year old guy to me. How many 26-27 year old pitchers are known to be great? Of those, what team is looking to trade them away?  I love the idea, but I'm not sure it is doable. Pedro Martinez deals are miracles. (We got him at 26. ) We also got Josh Beckett at 26, so I guess it might happen more than I think...
    Posted by moonslav59


    Without looking:

    Greinke, Pineda, Dan Haren (I think was originally traded from the As), E Jackson (more than once) and Volquez immediately come to mind. As well as every good pitcher the As have had for 10 years (Haren, Harden, Gio Gonzalez).

    As the above prove, they definitely cost a LOT. Volquez was a projected ace, and he cost a rehabbed Josh Hamilton.

    And, yes, it happens with small market teams, but well run small market teams get both quality and quantity back in prospects and let the bigger market team pay the big dollars. I, too, would LOVE a hard cap around 120 million, share more revenue, and let teams in places like KC and PIT field legitimate teams.
     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: The Red Sox Pitchers Now & the Future

    we got both from pay-roll strapped teams... if ther were equality we never would have had either of them.

    Yeah, true, but there will always be teams that have no near future hope and a big contract to dump. We got Beckett because we took Lowell with him. There might be a deal like that out there somewhere now.
     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: The Red Sox Pitchers Now & the Future

    Tazawas FB is up to 94mph post TJ..I dont think he hit 92mph but a couple times before TJ..Im liking what Ive seen so far from him..hes got good offspeed stuff and now that hes gained a couple MPH on his FB, hes got better seperation between pitches..could prove to be a + for him and his position with the team...Im impressed with Barnes so far as well..Ill save any serious opinion until he gets to AA and proves he can dominate there as well..But I like what Im seeing...Other thatn that, theres not a whole lot to talk about..Hopefully Ranaudo can make some improvements from last year when he comes back from his groin injury...
     
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