Re: The red sox should NOT re-sign david ortiz and here is why.
posted at 8/17/2011 1:45 PM EDT
In Response to Re: The red sox should NOT re-sign david ortiz and here is why.
[QUOTE]my point about vlad was to use him as a comparable. During vlad's age 35 season he posted all-star numbers similar if not better than ortiz this year. This year vlad has totally tanked and declined hard. ortiz is in the same situation and could end up following in vlads footsteps. and there is no way the yankees would sign ortiz. they need to have the dh spot open so they can rotate guys in and out. and i am sure they would give montero a shot before spending money on a guy like ortiz. as for fielder, yes it would be a lot of money to give to a dh but considering we have been paying 12.5 plus for ortiz, i think spending another 7 mill per year or so would be a good idea given that the sox lack a bat of fielders magnitude. we need a power bat to hit in the 4 spot. youk is not a number 4 and never has been or will be. Dh is a premium power position so why not one of the best power hitters in the game to fill it? with the money coming off the books from ortiz, drew, wake, cameron, wheeler, maybe scutaro, we can afford fielder.
Posted by redsoxpride34[/QUOTE]Vlad is not a good comparison in some ways. While Vlad produced a similar OPS (50 points lower in 2010) those 50 points were in his OBP. That means that Vladdy made a lot more outs. So while they may appear to be similar the fact that Ortiz keeps the line moving more often makes him in the RS system, more valuable.
And frankly free swingers are IMO subject to faster decline than selective hitters. Guys whose athletic ability allows then to drive pitchers pitches have that skill decline more quickly.
In terms of what Ortiz is making this year, yes based on comps, it is probably $2.5M high. His "brand value" and solid numbers in almost every stat category makes him a top of food chain DH. The RS paid the extra $2.5M for the benefit of having a one year deal. It was IMO a case of not wanting to alienate an employee to save a couple of million.
As for the money coming off of the books, sorry to inform you that much of it is already earmarked for A-Gon, Crawford and contract accelerators for Pedey, Youk, Lester and Buch and arbitration awards for others.
When the RS inked two deals with for over $280M they were assuming much of that money coming off of the books. Their quandary now IMO is that two probably assumptions, Ortiz and Papelbon do not look as easy to walk from as they did this winter. And they should if they can address the starting rotation, knowing coming into it that as of today a shaky Lackey and a very old Wakefield are 2/5ths of the rotation with DiceK having had TJ.
One never knows for sure but if there ever was a body type that you would not want to give a $125M -$140M contract to it is Prince Fielder. The Crawford signing has taught me to never say the RS would never do anything BUT I just don't see the RS having any interest in Prince.