Re: The Sky is Falling Article by Chip Buck - 791
posted at 4/21/2011 7:16 AM EDT
In Response to Re: The Sky is Falling Article by Chip Buck - 791
[QUOTE] Since there is no way to accurately poll RSN, this article coming from a professed analyst has no basis in factual analysis. It's more of a "feel" article. It's funny how after the article was written the team continued to lose, causing even more concern. The Sox have more of a history or MO of falling apart than winning, despite their current success recently. It's more logical that fans WOULD be seeing the sky falling, then to expect rainbows and pennant flags flying. It's no joke that the rest of the AL East is loaded with talent, so a win or loss in April carries significant weight on the outcome of the season. Now throw in a restructured offense, where the lead-off hitter has yet to be determined, and the over emphasis on LH bats day to day, and you have a "situation" calling for real analysis. Perhaps Chip can tell us the significance of having the L/R advantage, and I say advantage since most of the leagues pitchers are RH, was this part of Theo's plan? To gain a slight advantage upon thousands of AB's has to have a wave effect on total results, right? Maybe Chip will identify the "best" lead-off hitter on the team, Scutaro got the job by default last year, who should have it this year? What about the difference between roster turn over, Sox vs Yankees, the New Yorkers have three guys still together for 17 years, the Sox have only two, Wake and Ortiz from just 7 years ago. How about position by position comparison, this team vs 2004, or 2007? By researching the above, a more rational explanation may have been presented, instead 791 gives us gobbledygook, voodoo, and regurgitation, and of course his patented errors in syntax.
Posted by YOUKILLUS20[/QUOTE]
Analyzing the team in great detail (at that time and even now) is fairly meaningless at this point. When I wrote the article we were 5 or 6 games into the season, and now we're 17 games in. Drawing conclusions from such a small sample set of data is both foolish and reckless. For instance, I see Carl Crawford's .149/.186/.179 triple slash line, and know that it's absymal. At the same time, I see it's only in 70 PAs; he has an unsustainably low .179 BABIP; and outside of his line drive rate, his batted ball statistics are on par with his career norms. (Even batted ball stats don't become reliable until about 150-200 PAs, so a lot can change between now and then.) People were ready to release him based on a handful of games rather than think about the situation rationally.
The point I was making in this article (and it seems to be the point a lot of you clearly missed despite being my attempts at being crystal clear) was that panicking in that situation was kind of ridiculous. At the time I wrote the article, people were acting like it was the end of the world, and they'd only played 5-6 games. People were ready to behead Carl Crawford; put John Lackey before a firing squad; and put the rest of the season in a drawer. What they failed to realize was that the Orioles, Royals, Indians, and Pirates were all playing well at the time. Did anyone really think that was going to continue over the duration of the season? Even now? Of course not. Anything can happen over six games. The only reason RSN (and the media) was freaking out was that they were drawing ridiculous and irrational conclusions out of a fairly meaningless set of games. Is it natural to be disappointed? Of course, but let's try to keep a little perspective.
That's the problem with RSN. We're too easily swayed by the smallest of things. There's a reason guys like Babe (and many other Yankee fans) are able to come into the forum and wreak havoc. It's easy and fun for them to rile us up. If we went into their forums, most of them wouldn't give us the time of day. Why? Because they don't care about the Red Sox. They're the enemy, but they don't consider us to be a threat. To them, even if they fall behind or lose, they believe (for the most part) that they'll make a come back. Red Sox Nation, on the other hand? Disaster. Even after two championships in seven seasons, we're still the same fatalists we've always been. It's kind of sad that the group as a whole (which I understand is not representative of everyone
) can't put things into proper context.