The Sox dilemma--correctly predicted last week before the road trip started

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    The Sox dilemma--correctly predicted last week before the road trip started

    This is what I wrote in a thread entitled, The Danger. 

    On the surface, the Sox should be fine.  They just came off a terrific road trip, winning 8 of 9 against the Yankees, Jays, and Rays.  They have the best hitting/scoring in MLB and the best record in the AL.  Historically, the Sox have owned NL teams 

    But this trip looks different to me. 

    For one thing, it is unlikely that a key Sox hitter, Ortiz, will do much more than pinch hit because there is a significant drop off if he replaces AGon at 1B.  Plus the 9 hole will be filled by Sox pitchers.  Plus Crawford and Lowrie are on the DL, Drew/Crawford/McDonald are useless at the plate, and Scutaro/Sutton are decent but not nearly as good as the first five (Ellsbury, Pedroia, AGon, Youk, Ortiz).  Salty/Tek are also decent, but . . .

    Or look at it this way.  With Ortiz out, who will bat 5th, a pretty key slot in this lineup?  No one available is remotely as good as Ortiz with his over 1.000 OPS.  This is why Francona will be tempted to use AGon in RF to get Ortiz in the lineup, and I think he'll do it at least once.

    The Padres series is a reminder that good pitching can beat good hitting, even when the team with good pitching has weak hitters.  The Pirates and the Phillies both have good pitching--6th best and best in the NL, respectively--and their jobs will be easier given the loss of Ortiz, Crawford, and Lowrie and the requirement to send Sox pitchers to the plate. 

    What could really help is some great starting pitching, but right now that too is suspect.  Forget Lackey and Aceves and just say those were bad days.  What worries me is that Buchholz is on the DL, Beckett is still sick, Lester has been up and down this year, and Miller, who looked terrific in his first start, is still a young pitcher with a history of control issues.  Wake has been pretty darn good this year with 4 quality starts in 8 appearances, but he is also 44, has had a bad back (not this year), and his knuckler can sometimes be hittable.  The bullpen has had some good games, but also plenty of bad ones, and the closer has an ERA over over 4--well above his career ERA. 

    Given all the above, I will be OK with 4 or 5 wins this time around.  Not great, but not a disaster.  Six or more wins would be terrific.  But the danger is that Sox could go 3-6:  all that's needed is losing the Pirates series, winning the Astros series, and getting swept at Philly, the team with the best record in MLB and the best pitching staff. 
     
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    Re: The Sox dilemma--correctly predicted last week before the road trip started

    congrats
     
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    Re: The Sox dilemma--correctly predicted last week before the road trip started

       You better be careful you're going to throw your shoulder out patting yourself on the back, and what happens if the Sox take 2 out 3 in Philly then sweep the astros, will we see a retraction, but you already have that covered by saying 6 or more wins would be terrific. So you take both sides of the  fence, politicians everywhere applaud you
     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from maxbialystock. Show maxbialystock's posts

    Re: The Sox dilemma--correctly predicted last week before the road trip started

    If the Sox take 2 out of 3 in Philly I will personally find this thread and bring it back and announce I am delighted to be proved wrong.  This is one time when I very much want to be wrong. 

    As for patting myself on my back, you're dead right.  And my shoulder is feeling a little strange from all the twisting. 
     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from ZILLAGOD. Show ZILLAGOD's posts

    Re: The Sox dilemma--correctly predicted last week before the road trip started

    Please post next week's winning lottery numbers....thanks.
     
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    Re: The Sox dilemma--correctly predicted last week before the road trip started

    In Response to Re: The Sox dilemma--correctly predicted last week before the road trip started:
    [QUOTE]Please post next week's winning lottery numbers....thanks.

    Posted by ZILLAGOD[/QUOTE]

    I can tell you that they will all be higher than the OP's IQ

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from maxbialystock. Show maxbialystock's posts

    Re: The Sox dilemma--correctly predicted last week before the road trip started

    If only . . .
     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from betterredthandead. Show betterredthandead's posts

    Re: The Sox dilemma--correctly predicted last week before the road trip started

    Max, you haven't had an original thought in your life. It's part of being in America, today.
     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from ZILLAGOD. Show ZILLAGOD's posts

    Re: The Sox dilemma--correctly predicted last week before the road trip started

    And I thought it was the Japanese that were considered the copycats.
     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from maxbialystock. Show maxbialystock's posts

    Re: The Sox dilemma--correctly predicted last week before the road trip started

    Actually, reddead, I did have an original thought.  I predicted the Sox would have tough sledding on this road trip and explained why.  I even said they could well lose 2 of 3 to the Pirates. 
     
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    Re: The Sox dilemma--correctly predicted last week before the road trip started

    In Response to Re: The Sox dilemma--correctly predicted last week before the road trip started:
    [QUOTE]Actually, reddead, I did have an original thought.  I predicted the Sox would have tough sledding on this road trip and explained why.  I even said they could well lose 2 of 3 to the Pirates. 
    Posted by maxbialystock[/QUOTE]

      Nostradamos has nothing on you
     
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    Re: The Sox dilemma--correctly predicted last week before the road trip started

    In Response to The Sox dilemma--correctly predicted last week before the road trip started:
    [QUOTE]This is what I wrote in a thread entitled, The Danger.  On the surface, the Sox should be fine.  They just came off a terrific road trip, winning 8 of 9 against the Yankees, Jays, and Rays.  They have the best hitting/scoring in MLB and the best record in the AL.  Historically, the Sox have owned NL teams  But this trip looks different to me.  For one thing, it is unlikely that a key Sox hitter, Ortiz, will do much more than pinch hit because there is a significant drop off if he replaces AGon at 1B.  Plus the 9 hole will be filled by Sox pitchers.  Plus Crawford and Lowrie are on the DL, Drew/Crawford/McDonald are useless at the plate, and Scutaro/Sutton are decent but not nearly as good as the first five (Ellsbury, Pedroia, AGon, Youk, Ortiz).  Salty/Tek are also decent, but . . . Or look at it this way.  With Ortiz out, who will bat 5th, a pretty key slot in this lineup?  No one available is remotely as good as Ortiz with his over 1.000 OPS.  This is why Francona will be tempted to use AGon in RF to get Ortiz in the lineup, and I think he'll do it at least once. The Padres series is a reminder that good pitching can beat good hitting, even when the team with good pitching has weak hitters.  The Pirates and the Phillies both have good pitching--6th best and best in the NL, respectively--and their jobs will be easier given the loss of Ortiz, Crawford, and Lowrie and the requirement to send Sox pitchers to the plate.  What could really help is some great starting pitching, but right now that too is suspect.  Forget Lackey and Aceves and just say those were bad days.  What worries me is that Buchholz is on the DL, Beckett is still sick, Lester has been up and down this year, and Miller, who looked terrific in his first start, is still a young pitcher with a history of control issues.  Wake has been pretty darn good this year with 4 quality starts in 8 appearances, but he is also 44, has had a bad back (not this year), and his knuckler can sometimes be hittable.  The bullpen has had some good games, but also plenty of bad ones, and the closer has an ERA over over 4--well above his career ERA.  Given all the above, I will be OK with 4 or 5 wins this time around.  Not great, but not a disaster.  Six or more wins would be terrific.  But the danger is that Sox could go 3-6:  all that's needed is losing the Pirates series, winning the Astros series, and getting swept at Philly, the team with the best record in MLB and the best pitching staff. 
    Posted by maxbialystock[/QUOTE]
    They have the best record in the AL?
     
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    Re: The Sox dilemma--correctly predicted last week before the road trip started

    In Response to Re: The Sox dilemma--correctly predicted last week before the road trip started:
    [QUOTE]  As for patting myself on my back, you're dead right.  And my shoulder is feeling a little strange from all the twisting. 
    Posted by maxbialystock[/QUOTE]



    no worries max

    this will help












     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from kimsaysthis. Show kimsaysthis's posts

    Re: The Sox dilemma--correctly predicted last week before the road trip started

    I think this team has had enough with the NL. Let's get the Phillies!  It is the more important team to beat, since we could be facing them in the World Series. Smile
     
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    Re: The Sox dilemma--correctly predicted last week before the road trip started

    In Response to Re: The Sox dilemma--correctly predicted last week before the road trip started:
    [QUOTE]I think this team has had enough with the NL. Let's get the Phillies!  It is the more important team to beat, since we could be facing them in the World Series.
    Posted by kimsaysthis[/QUOTE]

    But beating Philly would mean Max would have to find another job.
     
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    Re: The Sox dilemma--correctly predicted last week before the road trip started

    In Response to Re: The Sox dilemma--correctly predicted last week before the road trip started:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: The Sox dilemma--correctly predicted last week before the road trip started : But beating Philly would mean Max would have to find another job.
    Posted by harness[/QUOTE]

    I don't get it. What's everyone's problem with Max? Did he say something about the Yankees that I missed?
     
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    Re: The Sox dilemma--correctly predicted last week before the road trip started

    Max is on a soap box because he predicted a poor (3-6 I think) road trip.
    Losing two of three to Pittsburgh has him starting another thread about it and numerous posts.

    If Philly sweeps, we may have to elect him mayor. Then he can bad-mouth NY with added credibility. However, if Boston takes it to the Phillies...
     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from kimsaysthis. Show kimsaysthis's posts

    Re: The Sox dilemma--correctly predicted last week before the road trip started

    In Response to Re: The Sox dilemma--correctly predicted last week before the road trip started:
    [QUOTE]Max is on a soap box because he predicted a poor (3-6 I think) road trip. Losing two of three to Pittsburgh has him starting another thread about it and numerous posts. If Philly sweeps, we may have to elect him mayor. Then he can bad-mouth NY with added credibility. However, if Boston takes it to the Phillies...
    Posted by harness[/QUOTE]

    Somehow I still believe, especially with all the NY fans ire, that he must have said something other than the team is going to have a bad road trip.

    FTR, he congratulated (for lack of a better word) me for my post about beating King Felix. He seemed happy about it. I don't think he's a negative poster. Maybe he really had concerns and they've panned out.
     
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    Re: The Sox dilemma--correctly predicted last week before the road trip started

    I like Max. He is honest and tells it true. Yes, he had concerns about the team's short-term prospects. So did many others here.

    Projections are cool. But I think it's best to see them play out before cashing in - or throwing in the towel. I've seen too many horses look good out of the gate, only to falter shortly after.

    3 games does not make a road trip destined for 9. And the Pirates came into the series playing slightly over .500 at home.
     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from maxbialystock. Show maxbialystock's posts

    Re: The Sox dilemma--correctly predicted last week before the road trip started

    The jibes are merited, I have to admit--way too much self-congratulation. 

    But the first thread, entitled The Danger, was born of two genuine concerns.  First, of course, was the likelihood that Ortiz wouldn't get into the lineup.  That plus Crawford on the DL and the pitchers hitting seemed likely to unhinge the Sox offense which is still the best (if not right now) in MLB this season. 

    Alternatively, I argued too that starting AGon in RF had some merit because of the hitting situation.  The overwhelming majority of OTFB contributors agreed doing this was way too risky.

    Is it worth pointing out that the one win at Pittsburgh was mostly due to four errors by the Pirates and 3 or 4 runs unearned?  Miller pitched very well, but could easily have lost and the Sox could have been swept.  \

    Now come the Phillies, and the prediction that the Sox could lose all three games doesn't seem that farfetched.

    Let me hasten to repeat that in this case I absolutely want to be wrong and the Sox to rescue this road trip.  But, based on 52 years of rooting for the Sox, I think I have earned my pessimism.  These are the best years ever to be a Sox fan, but worrying is our natural state. 
     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from NUSoxFan. Show NUSoxFan's posts

    Re: The Sox dilemma--correctly predicted last week before the road trip started

    And the moment we got home to play the Brewers I posted a topic how the next few series (including the Padres one) would be just as difficult as the AL East roadtrip. Just sayin'.
     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from betterredthandead. Show betterredthandead's posts

    Re: The Sox dilemma--correctly predicted last week before the road trip started

    Actually, reddead, I did have an original thought.

    There wasn't anthing orginal about saying that going on road games, losing the DH, playing an improved Pirate team and a PHillies team has prospects of some "trouble".

    Playing just over .500 ball works, on the road. If the Red Sox go 4 and 5 on this trip, meaning 4 of the next 6 @ Phillies and Houston, that would be a quite sufficient 5-4 road trip. A 4-5 roadtrip wouldn't be the end of the world, either. I think this team is good enough to go 3-3 over the next 6.
     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from harness. Show harness's posts

    Re: The Sox dilemma--correctly predicted last week before the road trip started

    Hey! This is Max's spotlight! Let's not steal it away. He's 1/3 right so far on the Phillies series. If he connects thru the Astros, I'll have to consider him a legit candidate for horse handicapping.
     
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    Re: The Sox dilemma--correctly predicted last week before the road trip started

    Guess ya could say the RedSox "held their own".
    Don't give up UR day job, Max.
     

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