The first upgrade has already been made.

 

Last season, the Sox starters compiled a 5.19ERA and a 1.47WHIP.

 

The team received 62 starts from Beckett, Bard, Matsuzaka, Cook and Stewart.  In those games, the starters compileda 6.08ERA and 1.51WHIP.  (327IP).  In these games, the team record was 20-42.

 

They received 100 starts from Lester, Buchholz, Morales, and Doubrount totaling 601.3IP and compiling a 4.72ERA and 1.42WHIP.  In thee  games the record was 49-51.

 

So by cutting some deadweight, they shaved half a run off starter ERA.  Good start.  The first group of pitchers have all been jettisoned, except Bard.  Hopefully Bard never starts another game. 

 

They do have to replace those 327IP, and really, get more, because only KC, cleveland and Minnesota worked their bullpen ahrder in all of the AL.   Lackey will come back.  De la Rosa and Webster will be in AAA.  And the Sox should defintiely sign a starter or two to one ofthose minor league depth deals that the same fans whine about every year no matter how many times you try to explain it to them.  Good options would be names like Chris Young, Tim Stauffer, Chien-Ming Wang and Dustn Moseley.

 

The Sox do need a starter, no doubt.   If for no other reason to throw 200IP.  But how good?

 

The Sox were roughly a .500 team with the group of pitchers they are keeping.  So even if we assume they stay at that levela and Lester and Buchholz do not imrove one bit, etc, the Sox would probably need to with 39 of those 62 games, or roughly 2/3.  If Lackey starts half and wins half his starts (15-15), the final pitcher the Sox add would need to go 24-8 for this team to contend. Despite that being a team record in starts, that is still not happening.

 

So clearly the Sox need Lester and Buchholz to step back in line.  Lester has really given many reason tothink he can bounce back, and every team win these two can improve does create some allowance for that 24-8 record.  If the team wins 3 more starts from each, they only need the last starters to allow for an 18-14 record.  Get two more from Doubront, etc. you get the idea.

 

So my point is that while the Sox really should get the best SP available, they need to fix what they have and get a guy who can give them innings.  The actual improvements they need from Lester, Buchholz, Doubront etc are not really astronomical.  And this team made huge strides getting rid of a lot of deadweight on that staff.  

 

And after all that, I still hope they do not sign Dempster or Lohse.  I'd rahter see Sanchez or Liriano.  McCarthy and Marcum scare me as both are bigger threats to the needd volume if IP.   If we are going to gamble on injury risks, Jair Jurrjens is probably a lot safer than either of thsoe two.   And if no one offers Dallas Braden anything, get him a minor league deal.  Dude was imrpoving by leaps and bounds prior to surgery.

 

Also, as he is available.  The Sox really ought to check in on Rick Porcello.  I keep readings posts about how the Soxneed to let their kids play, etc. and guys like Brentz deserve to "grow into" MLB.  blah blah balh.  OK, well Porcello is a classic case of a player growing up into his role at the MLB level.  He is still on 23 (for like 3 more weeks) and he has 4 years of MLB experience under his belt while being a whopping 3 days older than the guy many want to annoint immediately as the future of RF.  If you are a fan of this type of player development, then you should ignore Porcello's stats and assume he will continue to grow into his role.

 

 

 

 

 

 

For what it's worth, Red Sox fans should worry as much about the Red Sox hitting as the fans do about the Sox pitching.

Fenway Park exaggerates the Red Sox pitching woes (and enhances the Sox hitting numbers).

The Red Sox can build a strong rotation around Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz, John Lackey and Felix Doubront while the bullpen has great potential. I expect the Sox to acquire a pitcher or two, but I don't expect the team to break the bank for a top-tier starter.

Lester doesn't just need to step-up his game. He needs to be THE LEADER of this staff. He sets the tone. Whoever FA SP the Sox sign, this still needs to happen. If itdoesn't they should trade him for someone who will be that guy. 

In response to hill55's comment:

I expect the Sox to acquire a top pitcher via trade, one with a higher upside than what's available on the FA market.  As far as the hitting, let's hope the Red Sox don't experience nearly as much downtime from some of the key bats this season.  That should at least make up for some of the shortfall.  

The Sox were built to compete the last two years and from Sep 2011 on, Beckett and Lester disappointed and Buchholz showed that 2010 was a fluke.

The rebuild button should be pressed and signing one of the expensive FA SP to a long contract is like throwing good money after bad.

There are too many ifs:

1. Clay Buchholz just isn't that good.  The 17 - 7 2010 was built on a house of cards just like DiceK's 18-3 of 2008.   Clay has been striking out less batters and still walking too many.

2. Lackey, enough said

 

If they sign Dempster I will go Ape.

Notin agree w/ most of your points. But [1] pitcher everyone seems not to be mentioning is Edwin Jackson. We need pitchers who will give us IP. Your point on Marcum/McCarthy/ or even D.Haren [If were still available] is that can you count on any of them to make 31 starts and give you 200 IP? It's the one thing Jackson has done 197 IP per yr for career. While I also agree the RS chances for next yr rely on the return of J.Lester/C.Buchholz/ and J.Lackey to norm and an improved F.Doubront. Its not far fetched that these 4 could easily be 20+ games above .500 bringing in a guy who will give you IP and maybe be 1-2 games above .500 is most important. But also think RS need to make a play for a J.Lannan / M.Pelfrey [won't return til June]/ J.Jurigens as well for rotation depth.

Boston have been looking for pitchings, but their asking price are awful.  Sanchez got an 4 years offer from Detriot, and still he isnt accepting it.  He is waiting for Grienke to sign an offer, then Sanchez will use that leverage to get the second biggest fat contract for the starting pitcher.  I am sure Sanchez is possibility out of Boston's sweepstake.  Lohse was in touch with Boston by Boston, but guess Lohse is still looking around for a better offer.  

Making trade isnt working at all.  Half of MLB teams need starting pitcher, so if Boston is able to get a top of the rotation pitcher via trade, there will be teams will try to trump Boston for a better deal.   That is why Ellsbury isnt going to be trade cuz Boston cant find a taker that have a good starting pitcher to give up.

Things is getting harder for Boston.  Best solution is to over pay someone like Sanchez or Lohse which that is these two pitchers are high on my list!!  Kuroda was my other choice, but he is signed with the Yankees.  

In response to notin's comment:

I've been advocating for Porcello all along. Barring injury, I think this guy is going be a stud.

Great post, notin.

And after all that, I still hope they do not sign Dempster or Lohse.  I'd rahter see Sanchez or Liriano.  McCarthy and Marcum scare me as both are bigger threats to the needd volume if IP.   If we are going to gamble on injury risks, Jair Jurrjens is probably a lot safer than either of thsoe two.   And if no one offers Dallas Braden anything, get him a minor league deal.  Dude was imrpoving by leaps and bounds prior to surgery.

I am warming to your push for Liriano, and I also think A Sanchez is a good option though way overpaid as usual. I think McCarthy is a good gamble, but share your concerns about the IP issue (health).

I don't see this FA season as the year to find a true ace, but adding (at worst), Liriano, Jurrjens and Braden would be a nice step in the right direction and at a comparatively lower cost than the other options. Of course, I am still holding out hope we can find a way to trade for Brett Anderson, but I realize the chances are slim.

I think we may end up with G Floyd as a short term solution.

They received 100 starts from Lester, Buchholz, Morales, and Doubrount totaling 601.3IP and compiling a 4.72ERA and 1.42WHIP.  In thee  games the record was 49-51.

 

Even if these 4 give us 120 starts in 2013 and improve to 4.50/1.30, we're still in a boatload of trouble.

I actually don't think the Sox need pitching as much as everyone is saying.  Other than the fact of "you can never have enough pitching".  Unless they were to get a real stud/ace, I wouldn't do a whole lot.  But, of the pitchers they are talking about (Lohse, Jackson, Dempster) are all just very average. 

Jackson has a career 4.40 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP.  This isn't very good.  He had a couple of decent years, and a lot of bad ones.  He also has been pitching in the NL as of late.  He has only had 1 good year in the AL and that was 4 years ago.

Dempsters numbers have been decent, but again that was in the NL.  How did he do when he went to Texas last year?  ERA was over 5.00

Same can be said for Lohse.  He has been decent the past 2 years, but before that he was horrible for several years.  His numbers are also pitching in the NL.  Gavin floyd (who has also been mentioned) has had an ERA over 4.00 the past 4 years in a row.

Are these guys really going to help us much with ERA's in the 4's?  Doubrant and Morales can put up as good of numbers (if not better) than them.  Alright, so if you want a couple of guys for depth/inning eater/4 or 5 starter, then fine.  But, don't go paying 8-10 mill (which is what these gusy are probably going to get) for this kind of role.  It just isn't worth it. 

Everyone is basing on last years numbers.  But, you have to figure that Lester is going to return to form.  No reason not to think so. 

If Buchholz stays healthy, he is really good (despite what a couple of previous posts have said).  His final numbers last year were really inflated because of a very poor start.  But, he pitched very well after the poor start.  The year before he was pitching very good before he got hurt.  The year before that was his really good year (and was fully healthy the whole time).  If he is healthy, he is really good.

Now that Lackey has had a full year to heal, and not have Beckett around, he should also be at least good enough for a solid #3 guy. 

Is this a championship pitching staff?  Probably not.  But, the guys they are talking about isn't going to make it one either.   So, if they can get someone really good (Haren would have fit this and probably Sanchez), then fine.  But, don't bother paying salaries for these other guys being mentioned.  They just aren't worth and are no better than what we already have.

 

 

 

Ben is approaching 2013 the same way he did in 2012 with the starting pitching. Hoping Lester and Buchholz, and now Lackey instead of Beckett, can turn it around. Doubront pitched well but he needs to mature, and now opposing hitters have a year facing him. It will harder, not easier for him.

The truth of the matter is our staff needs to average at least 15 wins between the 5 starters, with the BP picking up the other 15 to 20 necessary to make the PS. I just can't see it with our current crop of SP. Ben needs to get a true 20 game winner from somewhere, and another that can win 17-18 games.

In response to notin's comment:

This is like Obama saying we already cut spending because we don't have to fund two wars which were never budgeted to begin with.

In response to sjddaj's comment:

I realize that all of the plus sides to our starters could come true, but to continually count on everything going right at the same time is the biggest mistake our management has made over the last 4-5 years.

We will have injuries, let downs, and declines somewhere in our staff. There is a very good chance one or more of Lester, Buch, Doubront or Lackey can do worse than 2012 or worse than expectations for 2013. We need to plan for this if we want a real chance at winning in 2013.

Myself, I prefer to plan more for 2014 and beyond, and I realize the FA class of pitchers is down this year, but we could try to sign someone on the younger side of 30 who can improve our staff for 3+ years.

I'm sorry if I don't share all the enthusiasm for Doubront as many here. Yes, he had a great K rate, but his WHIP was frightening. I am pulling for him to improve, but have serious reservations that he will... at least enough to make a significant difference.

I want a real chance of winning too.  But, do you think any of those pitchers names being mentioned would bring that?  I seen in one of your posts about Brett Anderson.  Sure, if we can get someone like that, then go for it.  Just as I said with Haren or Sanchez.

I guess what I should have is not that the Sox don't need a pitcher.  But, they don't need a pitcher of the caliber of the names being mentioned (Lohse, Floyd, Jackson, and Dempster).  For one of those 4, I just assume go with what we have or find someone dirt cheap.  Those 4 guys are going to cost us money and not really make us much better (if at all) than we we already have.

I also see Liriano's name mentoned.  An ERA of over 5.00 3 of the last 4 years?  No thanks.  Jurrgens may be worth a chance as well as McCarthy.  In fact, if Mccarthy is healthy, he would be great.

I agree with you about Doubrant as well.   But, while he may not be REAL good, he certainly should be good enough for a #5 starter.   I actually like Morales as a starter even better than  Doubrant though.

 

In response to sjddaj's comment:

I don't disagree with a single word here.

This is the main reason I do not think we should view this winter as the time to turn us from last to first. We should just take a giant step towards 2014 and beyond. 

bump

After Clay went 17 and 7 in 2010 there was talk about his low BABIP of .261 and his 79% LOB, I called him lucky and took flak.  

What has happened since:  2011/'12 (2010)

BABIP  .277  (261)

LOB% 72.5  (79%)

ERA   4.24  (2.33)

FIP   4.56  (3.61)

WAR 3.0  (3.8)

K/9    6.25  (6.22)

BB/9  3.14  (3.47)

Bill James is predicting 7.16 K/9 and 3.64 ERA

I think the Sox should do a total rebuild, in part because IMO Lester and Buchholz are not likely to act like a 1 and 2.  I hope Bill James is right and I am wrong, I wasn't over the last two years on Clay.   I would love to see him age like Pettite (they have similiar career numbers, but Pettite pitched in a different era). Except CB has walked .7 more per 9, his BABIP is .026 lower despite GB being very close (Jeter?), but look at FIP CB 4.29 (AP 3.74).

I worry that the Clay of 2012 is the more likely one, not 2010.

Tazawa was great last year, any chance he gets a chance to start?  I mean, esp. since they added Uehara.  Maybe someone from AAA surprises too, like de la rosa or what's that other dude's name?  That' what they need, someone not exactly in the plans or of whom not too much is expected turning into something great, it happens.

In response to tom-uk's comment:

Nice work, tom. 

As I have been saying since last winter, I have given up on being overly optimistic that all our starters have good and healthy years all at once. It's been time to rebuild our rotation for quite some time now, but I think too many are being seduced by "what ifs".

In response to moonslav59's comment:

I think at the cost they have them at as well as there not being an "ace" redily available, these guys are good solid #2 pitchers, which is good for now. I think Doubie will be better and lackey could surprise. Im counting on either an injury to one or someone struggling a bit.

If Doubie can improve on last year, he could make a good 2-3 pitcher. More a #3. We have a couple potential aces in RDLR and barnes, but stil, they are just prospects.

Im sure if BC could get himself a TOTR pitcher he would. Im Ok with what we have and adding one more going into 2013.

Hey Moon,

Nice work, tom. 

As I have been saying since last winter, I have given up on being overly optimistic that all our starters have good and healthy years all at once. It's been time to rebuild our rotation for quite some time now, but I think too many are being seduced by "what ifs".

Hey Moon,

I concur tom's breakdwon was very well done....

I agree and apparantly Cherington also agrees with your accessment and in fact "the remake of our rotation" began with trade of Beckett and the hiring of Farrel.

Make no mistake about it! The primary reason for Farrel's hiring, is job one for him is to to get Lester right...His (Lester's) return to form will have a ripple effect on the entire rotation and the workload asked of the guys in the pen. I see a CY young season for him in 2013. Call me crazy, but I'm very optomistic about the makeup and the quality of our core guys entering the spring (Lester, Buccholz, Doubront, Morales & Lackey)...With Farrel's return and oversight of the entire organizations pitching program. One could and should expect improvements and I also see young Doubron too improve and continue to develop into a quality big league starter he has all of the key tangables...Buccholz just has to stay on the field and if does he's alredy proven that he's among the best pitchers in the AL...Frankly the guy that seems to have been lost on many is Morales, who I thought pitched well enough to earn the #3 designation entering the spring..a healthy return to from for Lackey will also bolster the teams fortunes? It is due to the unknown that is Lackey' health, that I agree they need to add another veteren arm (Flyod?). If Lackey, does come back strong and able to snap of his slider. He's already shown that when given the ball he'll leave everything on the mound...

 

 

In response to Beantowne's comment:

I think we will be lucky to end up with 4 starters peforming well and staying healthy. If we culd add a solid #2 slot type starter (at worst), I'd feel a lot more confident about us having a chance to sneek into the playoffs in 2013, but more importantly, to better set ourselves up for 2014 and beyond, when hopefully we can add that last big piece (an ace) to our staff and be contenders once again..

In response to southpaw777's comment:
[QUOTE]

I think at the cost they have them at as well as there not being an "ace" redily available, these guys are good solid #2 pitchers, which is good for now. I think Doubie will be better and lackey could surprise. Im counting on either an injury to one or someone struggling a bit.

If Doubie can improve on last year, he could make a good 2-3 pitcher.

SP777 I wish I shared your optimism on Doub and Buch.   Would either be a 3rd SP for Texas (Darvish), NYY (Pettite), TB (Moore), Detroit (Fister), or Oak (Griffin, Millone, Colon,Blackley), LAA (Hanson)?