It's not "clear", even if you use your narrow cherry-picked timeframe.
Mr Moon, an accusation of cherry picking is a bit strong
2009 -2011 FGhs WAR:
Zobrist 19.2
Cano 16.3
Pedroia 16.2 (19.8 for 08, 09 , 11)
considering I used the last three years which is very normal to use. I posted Pedroia's #s w/out 2010. Zobrist only played 62 games in '08 and Cano (.718 OPS) wasn't that good that year so I didn't include it. Hardly cherry-picking.
2B: Zobrist (31 in May) Solid player
To call BZ just a solid player is common in baseball but there is plenty of evidence to show otherwise..
I do not feel his last three years are better than Pedroia's three best, but there is plenty of evidence to rate him above Cano.
You wrote: He's the 3rd best in the AL East and a solid player.
I'll take Pedey or Cano over Zobrist as my starting 2Bman. I also think they both are so much better
I am very surprised you think Cano is so much better.
2) 2009 was clearly an outlier season for Ben. He went from .948 to .699 in OPS, and is probably going to remain close to his 2011 OPS of .822. (He is a career .782 batter.)
If BZ does stay at .822 with great defense he is clearly better than solid at 6.6 WAR FGphs, and better than the 2011 RC (.882) at 5.6 WAR.
The Tampa Bay Rays Are Not Going Away: Part VII
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Re: The Tampa Bay Rays Are Not Going Away: Part VII
posted at 4/8/2012 2:44 PM EDT
- tom-uk
- Posts: 1907
- First: 8/13/2010
- Last: 6/5/2013
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Re: The Tampa Bay Rays Are Not Going Away: Part VII
posted at 4/8/2012 3:36 PM EDT
- devildavid
- Posts: 3725
- First: 3/21/2006
- Last: 6/13/2013
Red Sox fans should admire the Rays franchise for doing more with less. Since 2008 they have made the playoffs 3 of 4 seasons. They have done it without having a vaunted offense like the Yankees and Red Sox. They have done it mainly with pitching and defense. There is more than one way to win in the AL East. Teams do not back their way into the playoffs. They earn it the way it always has been done, by winning more games than their opponents. -
Re: The Tampa Bay Rays Are Not Going Away: Part VII
posted at 4/8/2012 9:17 PM EDT
- moonslav59
- Posts: 35071
- First: 9/27/2005
- Last: 6/20/2013
In Response to Re: The Tampa Bay Rays Are Not Going Away: Part VII:It's not "clear" , even if you use your narrow cherry-picked timeframe. Mr Moon, an accusation of cherry picking is a bit strong 2009 -2011 FGhs WAR: Zobrist 19.2 Cano 16.3 Pedroia 16.2 (19.8 for 08, 09 , 11) considering I used the last three years which is very normal to use. I posted Pedroia's #s w/out 2010. Zobrist only played 62 games in '08 and Cano (.718 OPS) wasn't that good that year so I didn't include it. Hardly cherry-picking. 2B: Zobrist (31 in May) Solid player To call BZ just a solid player is common in baseball but there is plenty of evidence to show otherwise.. I do not feel his last three years are better than Pedroia's three best, but there is plenty of evidence to rate him above Cano. You wrote: He's the 3rd best in the AL East and a solid player. I'll take Pedey or Cano over Zobrist as my starting 2Bman. I also think they both are so much better I am very surprised you think Cano is so much better. 2) 2009 was clearly an outlier season for Ben. He went from .948 to .699 in OPS, and is probably going to remain close to his 2011 OPS of .822. (He is a career .782 batter.) If BZ does stay at .822 with great defense he is clearly better than solid at 6.6 WAR FGphs, and better than the 2011 RC (.882) at 5.6 WAR.
Posted by tom-uk
I think the word "solid" is a compliment.
Although Cano has been in decline the last couple of years, I'd still take him as my 2Bman over Ben. However, I would rather have Ben in RF than Cano. -
Re: The Tampa Bay Rays Are Not Going Away: Part VII
posted at 4/8/2012 9:18 PM EDT
- bald-predictions
- Posts: 1937
- First: 5/5/2011
- Last: 6/19/2013
It'll be interesting to see how the rays pitching stacks up against detroit this week. -
Re: The Tampa Bay Rays Are Not Going Away: Part VII
posted at 4/8/2012 9:37 PM EDT
- royf19
- Posts: 8845
- First: 3/15/2009
- Last: 6/19/2013
In Response to Re: The Tampa Bay Rays Are Not Going Away: Part VII:In Response to Re: The Tampa Bay Rays Are Not Going Away: Part VII : OK, Roy, here it is....(From the NY Times) Ryan said. “I felt like we had a lot of pitchers that have been on pitch limits ever since Little League, and we don’t know what their genetic potential is as far as the number of pitches and workload they can handle.” and..."Pitchers, Ryan said, would be expected to last deeper in games." It's well understood that Ryan expects more innings from his starters, in addition, the five starters from last year had their highest career IP totals, with the exception of Colby Lewis, who fell just 2/3rd's of an inning from his career high. So, no, I don't think every other team is having every guy break their personal IP best.
Posted by YOUKILLUS20
I know what Ryan said. My point is when I check boxscores, the pitch count for starters who are pitching effectively are right in line with everyone else. Even if IP are personal bests, they're not any different than other teams.
For instance, the Rangers's top two starter averaged 6.5 IP and 6.2 IP per start. Beckett and Lester averaged 6.4 and 6.1. Not a signficant difference.
Look at the first two starts this year.
Lewis was effective but went just six innings, throwing 100 pitches. (2 ER)
Holliand went 6 IP (3 ER) with 93 pitches in game two.
Seems typical of what other teams do.
I'm not dismissing what Ryan said. I'm just saying that for now, if they are doing anything different, it's not anything dramatic yet. -
Re: The Tampa Bay Rays Are Not Going Away: Part VII
posted at 4/8/2012 11:12 PM EDT
- moonslav59
- Posts: 35071
- First: 9/27/2005
- Last: 6/20/2013
2011 Texas Rangers:
CJ Wilson 34 GS 105.6 Pitches/GS
C Lewis 32 GS 100.2 P/GS
Hollnad 32 GS 100.2 P/GS
Harrison 30 GS ~99.0
Ogando 29GS ~92.0
2011 Boston Red Sox
Lester 31 GS 103.0
Beckett 30 GS 99.8
Lackey 28 GS 101.6
Wake 23 GS 93.8
Buch 14 GS 97.8 -
Re: The Tampa Bay Rays Are Not Going Away: Part VII
posted at 4/8/2012 11:19 PM EDT
- hankwilliamsjr
- Posts: 1742
- First: 12/27/2011
- Last: 6/15/2012
Meaning they will be contenders for the playoffs and WS for at least 3-4 more years,
The Rays will never be contenders for the WS, see Marlins. -
Re: The Tampa Bay Rays Are Not Going Away: Part VII
posted at 4/9/2012 12:32 AM EDT
- WesternOregon
- Posts: 2609
- First: 1/13/2009
- Last: 4/9/2012
Reading portions of this thread leads me to recognize that the age old debate as to whether Wayne Getzsky or Bobby Orr was a better hockey player still is a silly waste of breath.
In honor of the passover I have replaced my ESC key with the following...
...and who really cares to debate if the Rays "are not going away" this year?
I hope y'all have better conversations to pass the time when we get to baseball eternity... -
Re: The Tampa Bay Rays Are Not Going Away: Part VII
posted at 4/9/2012 1:22 AM EDT
- royf19
- Posts: 8845
- First: 3/15/2009
- Last: 6/19/2013
In Response to Re: The Tampa Bay Rays Are Not Going Away: Part VII:Reading portions of this thread leads me to recognize that the age old debate as to whether Wayne Getzsky or Bobby Orr was a better hockey player still is a silly waste of breath. In honor of the passover I have replaced my ESC key with the following... ...and who really cares to debate if the Rays "are not going away" this year? I hope y'all have better conversations to pass the time when we get to baseball eternity...
Posted by WesternOregonWhat debate?There's should be absolutely no debate that Bobby Orr was a better hockey player.
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Re: The Tampa Bay Rays Are Not Going Away: Part VII
posted at 4/9/2012 4:05 AM EDT
- BurritoT
- Posts: 8051
- First: 9/29/2009
- Last: 6/19/2012
I can't debate we should envy Tampa's team spirit but their ownership refuses to ad that one player who would make the team the absolute best in the league. They need an Andre Ethier or .... gee now that I look at the list of potential 2013 free agents there are practically no short-term options out there.p.s. moon both Brian McCann and Miguel Montero are potential FA's next winter. I say sign one, let Ortiz walk, and have Lavarnway catch 30% of the time and DH; also maybe they oughta throw him a first basemans mit today. -
Re: The Tampa Bay Rays Are Not Going Away: Part VII
posted at 4/9/2012 8:05 AM EDT
- royf19
- Posts: 8845
- First: 3/15/2009
- Last: 6/19/2013
As to the topic of the thread, I predict less than 90 wins for the Rays. Last year, Shields and Price started 33 and 34 games,and Shields has started 31 to 34 games for five consecutive years.The Rays' top four starters all started 29 or more games, and in 2010, all five Rays starters started between 29 and 33 games (rotation included Garza).Even though their guys are young, at some point IMO, the Rays aren't going to be as lucky in regard to injuries to starters.I really don't think they're better than last year and they barely won 90. I say 85 to 89. -
Re: The Tampa Bay Rays Are Not Going Away: Part VII
posted at 4/9/2012 8:58 AM EDT
- moonslav59
- Posts: 35071
- First: 9/27/2005
- Last: 6/20/2013
In Response to Re: The Tampa Bay Rays Are Not Going Away: Part VII:As to the topic of the thread, I predict less than 90 wins for the Rays. Last year, Shields and Price started 33 and 34 games,and Shields has started 31 to 34 games for five consecutive years. The Rays' top four starters all started 29 or more games, and in 2010, all five Rays starters started between 29 and 33 games (rotation included Garza). Even though their guys are young, at some point IMO, the Rays aren't going to be as lucky in regard to injuries to starters. I really don't think they're better than last year and they barely won 90. I say 85 to 89.
Posted by royf19Of all the teams in MLB, the Rays are perhaps the one team that can handle a major injury to a starter. They have Wade Davis (recently moved to the pen) and Alex Cobb in AAA.They did have some injuries last year and Longoria seemed to play hurt for part of the season as well. -
Re: The Tampa Bay Rays Are Not Going Away: Part VII
posted at 4/9/2012 9:14 AM EDT
- nhsteven
- Posts: 11589
- First: 9/23/2005
- Last: 6/20/2013
In Response to Re: The Tampa Bay Rays Are Not Going Away: Part VII:In Response to Re: The Tampa Bay Rays Are Not Going Away: Part VII : Of all the teams in MLB, the Rays are perhaps the one team that can handle a major injury to a starter. They have Wade Davis (recently moved to the pen) and Alex Cobb in AAA. They did have some injuries last year and Longoria seemed to play hurt for part of the season as well.
Posted by moonslav59I was tempted to post MY predictions last week; I had the ALE as Tampa, NYY, & Bos, with Bos not getting in the PS due to the ALW juggernauts. Toronto has yet to prove they're more than hype to finish higher than 4th, barring a total meltdown by Bos (and a likely Bobby V scapegoating in that case), which is not out of the realm, but with that hitting, I doubt it. -
Re: The Tampa Bay Rays Are Not Going Away: Part VII
posted at 4/9/2012 12:22 PM EDT
- moonslav59
- Posts: 35071
- First: 9/27/2005
- Last: 6/20/2013
In Response to Re: The Tampa Bay Rays Are Not Going Away: Part VII:In Response to Re: The Tampa Bay Rays Are Not Going Away: Part VII : I was tempted to post MY predictions last week; I had the ALE as Tampa, NYY, & Bos, with Bos not getting in the PS due to the ALW juggernauts. Toronto has yet to prove they're more than hype to finish higher than 4th, barring a total meltdown by Bos (and a likely Bobby V scapegoating in that case), which is not out of the realm, but with that hitting, I doubt it.
Posted by nhstevenCare to provide some projected win totals for the top 3 ALE teams? -
Re: The Tampa Bay Rays Are Not Going Away: Part VII
posted at 4/9/2012 12:28 PM EDT
- hankwilliamsjr
- Posts: 1742
- First: 12/27/2011
- Last: 6/15/2012
Wade Davis harkens fear, in opposing batters.
Rays are the same as always, a weak offensive team with young pitching via loser status for so many years. They will project the same as I said last year, high 80's to low 90's and not a title contender. -
Re: The Tampa Bay Rays Are Not Going Away: Part VII
posted at 4/9/2012 12:35 PM EDT
- royf19
- Posts: 8845
- First: 3/15/2009
- Last: 6/19/2013
In Response to Re: The Tampa Bay Rays Are Not Going Away: Part VII:In Response to Re: The Tampa Bay Rays Are Not Going Away: Part VII : Of all the teams in MLB, the Rays are perhaps the one team that can handle a major injury to a starter. They have Wade Davis (recently moved to the pen) and Alex Cobb in AAA. They did have some injuries last year and Longoria seemed to play hurt for part of the season as well.
Posted by moonslav59Their starting pitching has been incredibly healthy the past couple of seasons, which is the key to their success. (I'm not talking about position players).You may be right. But when the main starters get hurt, it's a crpshoot. The Sox survived injuries when they plugged in Lester and Buchholz a few years ago. The Rays did it when they plugged in Hellickson a couple of years ago.But sometimes what looks good on paper in the minors doesn't translate to the majors. All I'm saying is that the way pitchers get hurt in the majors, the Rays have been able for the most part to buck that trend with their top starters the past couple of seasons. So at some point -- and maybe it won't be this year -- it's going to catch up with them. If it is this year, we'll see how hey handle it.And even w/o the injuries to the staff last year, they barely won 90. I don't think their everyday lineup is better, so Rays don't have a whole lot of room for error. That's why I said less than 90. -
Re: The Tampa Bay Rays Are Not Going Away: Part VII
posted at 4/9/2012 12:40 PM EDT
- maxbialystock
- Posts: 4477
- First: 6/8/2010
- Last: 6/19/2013
I have to wonder why we are being treated to Part VII of this saga. Most people would agree the Ray have an abundance of good to very good pitching, starting and relieving, so of course they are not "going away." End of story.
On top of which, moonslav is apparently doing this because of something hankwilliamsjr wrote. Since when is hankwilliamsjr an authority on MLB? -
Re: The Tampa Bay Rays Are Not Going Away: Part VII
posted at 4/9/2012 2:09 PM EDT
- moonslav59
- Posts: 35071
- First: 9/27/2005
- Last: 6/20/2013
In Response to Re: The Tampa Bay Rays Are Not Going Away: Part VII:
[QUOTE]I have to wonder why we are being treated to Part VII of this saga. Most people would agree the Ray have an abundance of good to very good pitching, starting and relieving, so of course they are not "going away."There are several posters who have stated that TB's offense is too weak to make them a contender.End of story. On top of which, moonslav is apparently doing this because of something hankwilliamsjr wrote. Since when is hankwilliamsjr an authority on MLB?Posted by maxbialystock[/QUOT]I have been saying TB will be contenders since 2008. This was before softy said for the first time "they will fade away" in 2010. That's when I started the first thread: part mock & part my longstanding position. Early last year he said the Rays would not compete for the playoffs. He kept repeating it over and over. The other parts were started mostly because the earlier parts had fallen to the latter pages and could not be accessed. Part VII was started because I think TB is better than last year and should win 92-94 games. I'm not alone in this belief, but I think I am still in the minority. -
Re: The Tampa Bay Rays Are Not Going Away: Part VII
posted at 4/9/2012 2:20 PM EDT
- nhsteven
- Posts: 11589
- First: 9/23/2005
- Last: 6/20/2013
In Response to Re: The Tampa Bay Rays Are Not Going Away: Part VII:In Response to Re: The Tampa Bay Rays Are Not Going Away: Part VII : I think the word "solid" is a compliment. Although Cano has been in decline the last couple of years, I'd still take him as my 2Bman over Ben. However, I would rather have Ben in RF than Cano.
Posted by moonslav592010 was a decline year for Cano? Or are you going by the 1st 3 games of this yr? Perhaps the RS plight is somehow indirectly making you post sillier and sillier statements. -
Re: The Tampa Bay Rays Are Not Going Away: Part VII
posted at 4/9/2012 2:26 PM EDT
- nhsteven
- Posts: 11589
- First: 9/23/2005
- Last: 6/20/2013
In Response to Re: The Tampa Bay Rays Are Not Going Away: Part VII:In Response to Re: The Tampa Bay Rays Are Not Going Away: Part VII : Care to provide some projected win totals for the top 3 ALE teams?
Posted by moonslav59It's tough enough to pick positions; ever look at expert predictions in our lifetimes vs what actually happens? Sometimes the disparity has been mind boggling. I remember when the '65-'66 Yanks were picked to finish 1st then 4th (Actual 6th then 10th) and the '69 Mets were picked to finish last, for example. The RS this yr is specially tough, since their outcome is so dependent on their ability to fix the pitching. Taking the median expectation of that issue; this is what I get:TB : 98NYY : 93Bos : 88 -
Re: The Tampa Bay Rays Are Not Going Away: Part VII
posted at 4/9/2012 3:19 PM EDT
- maxbialystock
- Posts: 4477
- First: 6/8/2010
- Last: 6/19/2013
moonslav, I don't care if you were right in 2008. In fact, that's my point. Please, please start another saga and call it "the Sox are not going away (or are going away, take your pick)." -
Re: The Tampa Bay Rays Are Not Going Away: Part VII
posted at 4/9/2012 3:51 PM EDT
- jesseyeric
- Posts: 13695
- First: 6/15/2007
- Last: 6/10/2013
In Response to Re: The Tampa Bay Rays Are Not Going Away: Part VII:I project 92-94 wins and a strong chance at a wild card berth.
Posted by moonslav59
Looking good so far. I have to admit, I didn't think they were a 90 win team last year and I had my doubts this year. Baseball forbid Pena to actually have figured out his bad habits at the plate. He is a dangerous hitter when he is on. -
Re: The Tampa Bay Rays Are Not Going Away: Part VII
posted at 4/9/2012 8:23 PM EDT
- moonslav59
- Posts: 35071
- First: 9/27/2005
- Last: 6/20/2013
In Response to Re: The Tampa Bay Rays Are Not Going Away: Part VII:In Response to Re: The Tampa Bay Rays Are Not Going Away: Part VII : 2010 was a decline year for Cano? Or are you going by the 1st 3 games of this yr? Perhaps the RS plight is somehow indirectly making you post sillier and sillier statements.
Posted by nhsteven
My bad. He only slightly declined one year (from 2010 to 2011). Sorry. -
Re: The Tampa Bay Rays Are Not Going Away: Part VII
posted at 4/9/2012 8:26 PM EDT
- moonslav59
- Posts: 35071
- First: 9/27/2005
- Last: 6/20/2013
In Response to Re: The Tampa Bay Rays Are Not Going Away: Part VII:In Response to Re: The Tampa Bay Rays Are Not Going Away: Part VII : It's tough enough to pick positions; ever look at expert predictions in our lifetimes vs what actually happens? Sometimes the disparity has been mind boggling. I remember when the '65-'66 Yanks were picked to finish 1st then 4th (Actual 6th then 10th) and the '69 Mets were picked to finish last, for example. The RS this yr is specially tough, since their outcome is so dependent on their ability to fix the pitching. Taking the median expectation of that issue; this is what I get: TB : 98 NYY : 93 Bos : 88
Posted by nhsteven
Thanks for making a call. Too many posters here are quick to judge another's mistakes, but when they never make a projection themselves, but then come back with "I knew this or that would happen", it irks me. -
Re: The Tampa Bay Rays Are Not Going Away: Part VII
posted at 4/10/2012 10:53 AM EDT
- nhsteven
- Posts: 11589
- First: 9/23/2005
- Last: 6/20/2013
In Response to Re: The Tampa Bay Rays Are Not Going Away: Part VII:In Response to Re: The Tampa Bay Rays Are Not Going Away: Part VII : My bad. He only slightly declined one year (from 2010 to 2011). Sorry.
Posted by moonslav59You are forgiven.