Re: The Ten Million Dollar Hit
posted at 6/16/2014 7:18 AM EDT
In response to dgalehouse's comment:
In response to RedSoxKimmi's comment:
In response to steven11's comment:
How about a stat for when a batter is on first, the batter up getting a hit? Do they keep a stat for that, because it seems to be happening a lot when JBJ is on first. JBJ keeps getting paid a lot of attention from pitchers.
This has been discussed before with Ellsbury, and how the threat of a stolen base supposedly disrupted the opposing pitcher and defense. Studies have shown that the advantage to the hitter in such a situation is largely nonexistent. In fact, having a stolen base threat on first base hurts the batter at the plate, on average, more than it helps.
[object HTMLDivElement] Do you think that a pitcher whose attention is distracted by a stolen base threat on first is not a better pitcher to hit against? Do you not think that holding a runner on creates a bigger hole on the right side ? Do you not think that the hitter is more likely to get a fastball to hit? Do you not think that speed is an important factor in sports ? All of these things go into winning or losing, but may not show up on some of the alphabet soup of today's multitude of stats. Maybe you should check with Dustin Pedroia. I am a little tired of hearing things like " studies have shown " or " experts say" this or that. Just watch baseball games. Watch the reality of what happens. Don't try to spin things to suit your own preferences.
Joe Kerrigan built an entire pitching philosophy on learning to ignore the base runners (pitcher and catcher). I remember Tek using a first baseman-style mitt for a while to improve his pitch framing at the expense of hit CS%.
And when I need to crush metrics people, all I have to do is go back and pull out Theo talking about JD Drew, "According to OUR metrics, JD is actually worth a tick ABOVE what we're paying him." Such an arrogant statement, and one they couldn't have looked more foolish about.
Sabermetrics champions talk down to "non-believers". Did you hear Keith Law....ever? He decided Mike Trout was the MVP because of Sabermetrics and anyone who didn't agree "doesn't understand baseball."
I actually LIKE some of the sabermetrics...I just wish, as people often say when challenged...it's just one tool in the box, well treat it as such! Stop running around spouting WAR like it's the only stat. So many times people just throw out "well, player X's WAR is xxx....so, yeah." Great argument.
What stats to I use? A lot.
Avg, OPS, Avg w risp, Ks. And beyond that, there's the eyeball test, which JD never passed. Does he look like he cares? Is he an intelligent player? Selfless or selfish? Clutch? Choke artist? A good fit for the team? Intense?
FOr me, there is a lot that goes into my forming an opinion about a player. I feel like WAR is trying WAY too hard to reinvent the wheel.
Straight from fangraphs:
● WAR is context, league, and park neutral. This means you can use WAR to compare players between years, leagues, and teams.
Unfortunately, baseball is NEVER park, league, or context neutral. It's ALL ABOUT context. Park plays a HUGE role...and league is being diminished with increased interleague play.
WHO IS A REPLACEMENT PLAYER!?!?!?!?!?!?! These number are all based on Wins OVER a Replacement player...who is this mythical being? Is he the same on every team. Am I to assume a replacement player in Pittsburgh is just as valuable as a replacement player in Boston? Oh right, it's context neutral because....well, because that's the only way it can even make a little sense.
Baseball isn't played in a vacuum, and I find it incredible dumb to look at the stats in a vacuum.
I once broke down one of Ortiz' bad years....2010ish. One where fans were incredibly split on him. I was of the thinking his 26 or whatever home runs were empty. Upon leafing through ever box score, and finding the CONTEXT, he had an usually high number come in games that they were already leading, and ended up blowouts. Ortiz DOES have a lot of clutch performances, but this particular season was very lacking.
Context. Is. Everything.
TO me, honestly, it's about as useful as looking at wins for a SP. Cuz, you know what? Every year I check the win total leaders, and it's pretty much the best pitchers! So, that must be a great stat for evaluating them, right? Context neutral! Doesn't matter if a reliever blows it in the 9th! Doesn't matter if he threw 9 innings of 1 run ball and his team got shut out!
Red Sox and CARMINE went into a vacuum, and came out with Bobby Valentine, Gonzalez, Crawford and 2012, how'd that work?