The Ten Million Dollar Hit

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from dgalehouse. Show dgalehouse's posts

    Re: The Ten Million Dollar Hit

    In response to RedSoxKimmi's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to steven11's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    How about a stat for when a batter is on first, the batter up getting a hit?  Do they keep a stat for that, because it seems to be happening a lot when JBJ is on first.  JBJ keeps getting paid a lot of attention from pitchers.

    [/QUOTE]

    This has been discussed before with Ellsbury, and how the threat of a stolen base supposedly disrupted the opposing pitcher and defense.  Studies have shown that the advantage to the hitter in such a situation is largely nonexistent.  In fact, having a stolen base threat on first base hurts the batter at the plate, on average, more than it helps.

     

    [/QUOTE]


    [object HTMLDivElement]    Do you think that a pitcher whose attention is distracted by a stolen base threat on first is not a better pitcher to hit against?  Do you not think that holding a runner on creates a bigger hole on the right side ?  Do you not think that the hitter is more likely to get a fastball to hit?  Do you not think that speed is an important factor in sports ? All of these things go into winning or losing, but may not show up on some of the alphabet soup of today's multitude of stats. Maybe you should check with Dustin Pedroia. I am a little tired of hearing things like " studies have shown " or " experts say" this or that. Just watch baseball games.  Watch the reality of what happens. Don't try to spin things to suit your own preferences.

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from ma6dragon9. Show ma6dragon9's posts

    Re: The Ten Million Dollar Hit

    In response to dgalehouse's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to RedSoxKimmi's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to steven11's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    How about a stat for when a batter is on first, the batter up getting a hit?  Do they keep a stat for that, because it seems to be happening a lot when JBJ is on first.  JBJ keeps getting paid a lot of attention from pitchers.

    [/QUOTE]

    This has been discussed before with Ellsbury, and how the threat of a stolen base supposedly disrupted the opposing pitcher and defense.  Studies have shown that the advantage to the hitter in such a situation is largely nonexistent.  In fact, having a stolen base threat on first base hurts the batter at the plate, on average, more than it helps.

     

    [/QUOTE]


    [object HTMLDivElement]    Do you think that a pitcher whose attention is distracted by a stolen base threat on first is not a better pitcher to hit against?  Do you not think that holding a runner on creates a bigger hole on the right side ?  Do you not think that the hitter is more likely to get a fastball to hit?  Do you not think that speed is an important factor in sports ? All of these things go into winning or losing, but may not show up on some of the alphabet soup of today's multitude of stats. Maybe you should check with Dustin Pedroia. I am a little tired of hearing things like " studies have shown " or " experts say" this or that. Just watch baseball games.  Watch the reality of what happens. Don't try to spin things to suit your own preferences.

    [/QUOTE]


    Joe Kerrigan built an entire pitching philosophy on learning to ignore the base runners (pitcher and catcher). I remember Tek using a first baseman-style mitt for a while to improve his pitch framing at the expense of hit CS%.

    And when I need to crush metrics people, all I have to do is go back and pull out Theo talking about JD Drew, "According to OUR metrics, JD is actually worth a tick ABOVE what we're paying him." Such an arrogant statement, and one they couldn't have looked more foolish about.

    Sabermetrics champions talk down to "non-believers". Did you hear Keith Law....ever? He decided Mike Trout was the MVP because of Sabermetrics and anyone who didn't agree "doesn't understand baseball."

    I actually LIKE some of the sabermetrics...I just wish, as people often say when challenged...it's just one tool in the box, well treat it as such! Stop running around spouting WAR like it's the only stat. So many times people just throw out "well, player X's WAR is xxx....so, yeah." Great argument.

    What stats to I use? A lot.

    For hitters:

    Avg, OPS, Avg w risp, Ks. And beyond that, there's the eyeball test, which JD never passed. Does he look like he cares? Is he an intelligent player? Selfless or selfish? Clutch? Choke artist? A good fit for the team? Intense?

    FOr me, there is a lot that goes into my forming an opinion about a player. I feel like WAR is trying WAY too hard to reinvent the wheel.

    Straight from fangraphs:

    ‚óŹ WAR is context, league, and park neutral. This means you can use WAR to compare players between years, leagues, and teams.

    Unfortunately, baseball is NEVER park, league, or context neutral. It's ALL ABOUT context. Park plays a HUGE role...and league is being diminished with increased interleague play.

    WHO IS A REPLACEMENT PLAYER!?!?!?!?!?!?! These number are all based on Wins OVER a Replacement player...who is this mythical being? Is he the same on every team. Am I to assume a replacement player in Pittsburgh is just as valuable as a replacement player in Boston? Oh right, it's context neutral because....well, because that's the only way it can even make a little sense.

    Baseball isn't played in a vacuum, and I find it incredible dumb to look at the stats in a vacuum.

    I once broke down one of Ortiz' bad years....2010ish. One where fans were incredibly split on him. I was of the thinking his 26 or whatever home runs were empty. Upon leafing through ever box score, and finding the CONTEXT, he had an usually high number come in games that they were already leading, and ended up blowouts. Ortiz DOES have a lot of clutch performances, but this particular season was very lacking.

    Context. Is. Everything.

    TO me, honestly, it's about as useful as looking at wins for a SP. Cuz, you know what? Every year I check the win total leaders, and it's pretty much the best pitchers! So, that must be a great stat for evaluating them, right? Context neutral! Doesn't matter if a reliever blows it in the 9th! Doesn't matter if he threw 9 innings of 1 run ball and his team got shut out!

    Red Sox and CARMINE went into a vacuum, and came out with Bobby Valentine, Gonzalez, Crawford and 2012, how'd that work?

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from miscricket. Show miscricket's posts

    Re: The Ten Million Dollar Hit

    In response to dgalehouse's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to RedSoxKimmi's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to steven11's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    How about a stat for when a batter is on first, the batter up getting a hit?  Do they keep a stat for that, because it seems to be happening a lot when JBJ is on first.  JBJ keeps getting paid a lot of attention from pitchers.

    [/QUOTE]

    This has been discussed before with Ellsbury, and how the threat of a stolen base supposedly disrupted the opposing pitcher and defense.  Studies have shown that the advantage to the hitter in such a situation is largely nonexistent.  In fact, having a stolen base threat on first base hurts the batter at the plate, on average, more than it helps.

     

    [/QUOTE]


    [object HTMLDivElement]    Do you think that a pitcher whose attention is distracted by a stolen base threat on first is not a better pitcher to hit against?  Do you not think that holding a runner on creates a bigger hole on the right side ?  Do you not think that the hitter is more likely to get a fastball to hit?  Do you not think that speed is an important factor in sports ? All of these things go into winning or losing, but may not show up on some of the alphabet soup of today's multitude of stats. Maybe you should check with Dustin Pedroia. I am a little tired of hearing things like " studies have shown " or " experts say" this or that. Just watch baseball games.  Watch the reality of what happens. Don't try to spin things to suit your own preferences.

    [/QUOTE]


    Dgale...I agree. Studies..smuddies. I know what my eyes tell me..as does any fan who is out there watching the games. It defies logic to suggest that a runner on 1st threatening to steal second in a close game has no affect on the pitcher ( or the catcher for that matter!). In the aggregate of the entire MLB..perhaps not..but in individual game situations..? Absolutely.

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from sycophant123. Show sycophant123's posts

    Re: The Ten Million Dollar Hit

    In response to steven11's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    What happens if Drew does not play the rest of the season?  Will $10 Million be the most paid ever for one hit?  Should Ben lose his job?  Whoever pushed for Drew should take a leave of absence if this turns out to be the case.

    [/QUOTE]

    You know Victorino makes 13 million right? 

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: The Ten Million Dollar Hit

    In response to ma6dragon9's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I've found that people who support WAR can't explain what's so good about it. I've had this argument, on this board, for years. Literally. I can never get anyone to explain to me how arbitrary decisions, like drawing a mythical 'zone' around a position or deciding what hits or steals are more important after the fact, can be used to scientifically deduce anything. 

    [/QUOTE]

    How is the zone around a position 'mythical'?  You can argue that the UZR measurements are not completely reliable because they're subjective, but you can't argue that fielding range doesn't vary from one player to another or that it isn't important.  Just about everybody who follows baseball knows by now that Derek Jeter, while very sure-handed on balls he can get to, has extremely poor range.  Should he not be downgraded as a fielder for that?

    Also I'm not sure what you mean about deciding what hits or steals are more important after the fact? 

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from jam789123. Show jam789123's posts

    Re: The Ten Million Dollar Hit

    In response to sycophant123's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to steven11's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    What happens if Drew does not play the rest of the season?  Will $10 Million be the most paid ever for one hit?  Should Ben lose his job?  Whoever pushed for Drew should take a leave of absence if this turns out to be the case.

    [/QUOTE]

    You know Victorino makes 13 million right? 

    [/QUOTE]

    You know Drew actually makes more on a pro rated basis than Vic?

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from steven11. Show steven11's posts

    Re: The Ten Million Dollar Hit

    In response to RedSoxKimmi's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to steven11's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    How about a stat for when a batter is on first, the batter up getting a hit?  Do they keep a stat for that, because it seems to be happening a lot when JBJ is on first.  JBJ keeps getting paid a lot of attention from pitchers.

    [/QUOTE]

    This has been discussed before with Ellsbury, and how the threat of a stolen base supposedly disrupted the opposing pitcher and defense.  Studies have shown that the advantage to the hitter in such a situation is largely nonexistent.  In fact, having a stolen base threat on first base hurts the batter at the plate, on average, more than it helps.

     

    [/QUOTE]


    Not buying it.  When JBJ was recently on fist, the pitcher threw the ball away and a nice inning got started.  The national broadcasters talk about this more than don and gerry. Do you not think Dave Roberts changed the whole complexion of games in 04?

    JBJ is not a great base stealer but he gets the attention of pitchers when on.  Compare it to driving a car, if you are looking at a crazy driving to your left, your full attention is not to the driver in front.

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedSoxKimmi. Show RedSoxKimmi's posts

    Re: The Ten Million Dollar Hit

    In response to dgalehouse's comment:
    [QUOTE]


    Do you think that a pitcher whose attention is distracted by a stolen base threat on first is not a better pitcher to hit against?  Do you not think that holding a runner on creates a bigger hole on the right side ?  Do you not think that the hitter is more likely to get a fastball to hit?  Do you not think that speed is an important factor in sports ? All of these things go into winning or losing, but may not show up on some of the alphabet soup of today's multitude of stats. Maybe you should check with Dustin Pedroia. I am a little tired of hearing things like " studies have shown " or " experts say" this or that. Just watch baseball games.  Watch the reality of what happens. Don't try to spin things to suit your own preferences.

    [/QUOTE]


    Wow, you ask a lot of questions.  ;-)

    1.  Not only is the pitcher distracted, but the hitter is distracted as well.  More than you might think.

    2.  Of course holding a runner creates a hole.  But runners who are not base stealing threats are held on too.  That hole is there whenever there is a base runner on first (except in cases where defensive indifference would apply).

    Having a runner of first who is NOT a disruptive runner, with less than 2 outs, is a big advantage to a batter.  Having a base stealing threat on first, with less than 2 outs, not so much.  If said base stealer then steals, the advantage to the hitter goes down even more.

    3.  Yes, a hitter is more likely to get a fastball (as studies have shown), but the hitter is also more likely to take a pitch or two, putting himself behind in the count.

    4.  Yes, speed is an important factor in sports.  Stolen bases, OTOH, are largely overrated.

    A disruptive runner like Ellsbury or Billy Hamilton is more likely to have a negative effect on the hitter at the plate than a positive one.  As always, there are exceptions.

    I am very tired of hearing things like "I don't need stats, I watch the games" and of people dismissing stats or studies because they don't support their opinions.  If someone wants to continue believing what they believe because they watch the games and they know what they see, despite the data proving otherwise, there really is no point in trying to debate.

    FTR, I once believed that the threat of a stolen base was a huge advantage for the batter.  I now know better.

     

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from dannycater. Show dannycater's posts

    Re: The Ten Million Dollar Hit

    Call it a $10 million bonus for Drew, then forget about this mistake by Sox. I blame Drew for not trying to work a reasonable deal with Sox and I blame the Sox FO for waiting too long to pull a trigger deal with him. It was a Lose-Lose in this case.

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedSoxKimmi. Show RedSoxKimmi's posts

    Re: The Ten Million Dollar Hit

    In response to steven11's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Not buying it.  When JBJ was recently on fist, the pitcher threw the ball away and a nice inning got started.  The national broadcasters talk about this more than don and gerry. Do you not think Dave Roberts changed the whole complexion of games in 04?

    JBJ is not a great base stealer but he gets the attention of pitchers when on.  Compare it to driving a car, if you are looking at a crazy driving to your left, your full attention is not to the driver in front.

    [/QUOTE]


    The national broadcasters also said that Pedroia was an excellent baserunner.  And based on what my eyes told me, I agreed with them.  Guess what?  Not true.

    We are all biased.  What we see and then believe is affected by our biases.  In other words, our eyes lie to us.

    As far as being distracted by the crazy driving to the left, the batter is also distracted by that crazy.  Additionally, the batter must also adjust his approach at the plate to protect that crazy.

     

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from steven11. Show steven11's posts

    Re: The Ten Million Dollar Hit

    In response to RedSoxKimmi's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to dgalehouse's comment:
    [QUOTE]


    Do you think that a pitcher whose attention is distracted by a stolen base threat on first is not a better pitcher to hit against?  Do you not think that holding a runner on creates a bigger hole on the right side ?  Do you not think that the hitter is more likely to get a fastball to hit?  Do you not think that speed is an important factor in sports ? All of these things go into winning or losing, but may not show up on some of the alphabet soup of today's multitude of stats. Maybe you should check with Dustin Pedroia. I am a little tired of hearing things like " studies have shown " or " experts say" this or that. Just watch baseball games.  Watch the reality of what happens. Don't try to spin things to suit your own preferences.

    [/QUOTE]


    Wow, you ask a lot of questions.  ;-)

    1.  Not only is the pitcher distracted, but the hitter is distracted as well.  More than you might think.

    2.  Of course holding a runner creates a hole.  But runners who are not base stealing threats are held on too.  That hole is there whenever there is a base runner on first (except in cases where defensive indifference would apply).

    Having a runner of first who is NOT a disruptive runner, with less than 2 outs, is a big advantage to a batter.  Having a base stealing threat on first, with less than 2 outs, not so much.  If said base stealer then steals, the advantage to the hitter goes down even more.

    3.  Yes, a hitter is more likely to get a fastball (as studies have shown), but the hitter is also more likely to take a pitch or two, putting himself behind in the count.

    4.  Yes, speed is an important factor in sports.  Stolen bases, OTOH, are largely overrated.

    A disruptive runner like Ellsbury or Billy Hamilton is more likely to have a negative effect on the hitter at the plate than a positive one.  As always, there are exceptions.

    I am very tired of hearing things like "I don't need stats, I watch the games" and of people dismissing stats or studies because they don't support their opinions.  If someone wants to continue believing what they believe because they watch the games and they know what they see, despite the data proving otherwise, there really is no point in trying to debate.

    FTR, I once believed that the threat of a stolen base was a huge advantage for the batter.  I now know better.

     

    [/QUOTE]


    Stats of course are important and obviously what a player goes to the bargaining table with.  Runners who are not base stealing threats don't have balls thrown over to first like when JBJ is on.  You can diminish all you want the importance of having a runner with speed on first.  Annoying a pitcher so that he has to throw to first is something the offensive team would rather have than not.  I remember Tony Gwynn talking about this in his brief announcing career.

    When Dave Roberts was on the national announcers used to say he gave pitchers heart attacks.

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from andrewmitch. Show andrewmitch's posts

    Re: The Ten Million Dollar Hit

    $45,000 per plate appearance

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from steven11. Show steven11's posts

    Re: The Ten Million Dollar Hit

    In response to RedSoxKimmi's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to steven11's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Not buying it.  When JBJ was recently on fist, the pitcher threw the ball away and a nice inning got started.  The national broadcasters talk about this more than don and gerry. Do you not think Dave Roberts changed the whole complexion of games in 04?

    JBJ is not a great base stealer but he gets the attention of pitchers when on.  Compare it to driving a car, if you are looking at a crazy driving to your left, your full attention is not to the driver in front.

    [/QUOTE]


    The national broadcasters also said that Pedroia was an excellent baserunner.  And based on what my eyes told me, I agreed with them.  Guess what?  Not true.

    We are all biased.  What we see and then believe is affected by our biases.  In other words, our eyes lie to us.

    As far as being distracted by the crazy driving to the left, the batter is also distracted by that crazy.  Additionally, the batter must also adjust his approach at the plate to protect that crazy.

     

    [/QUOTE]


    I don't see Dustin annoying pitchers this year.  When you see pitchers constantly throwing to first when a particular player is on, you have to think they know something.

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from sycophant123. Show sycophant123's posts

    Re: The Ten Million Dollar Hit

    In response to jam789123's comment:


    In response to sycophant123's comment:
    [QUOTE]


    In response to steven11's comment:
    [QUOTE]


    What happens if Drew does not play the rest of the season?  Will $10 Million be the most paid ever for one hit?  Should Ben lose his job?  Whoever pushed for Drew should take a leave of absence if this turns out to be the case.




    You know Victorino makes 13 million right? 


    [/QUOTE]

    You know Drew actually makes more on a pro rated basis than Vic?


    [/QUOTE]
    Yes I do. Did you miss my point entirely?

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from sycophant123. Show sycophant123's posts

    Re: The Ten Million Dollar Hit

    In response to andrewmitch's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    $45,000 per plate appearance

    [/QUOTE]

    I bet that will change. What do you think?

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from steven11. Show steven11's posts

    Re: The Ten Million Dollar Hit

    In response to RedSoxKimmi's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to dgalehouse's comment:
    [QUOTE]


    Do you think that a pitcher whose attention is distracted by a stolen base threat on first is not a better pitcher to hit against?  Do you not think that holding a runner on creates a bigger hole on the right side ?  Do you not think that the hitter is more likely to get a fastball to hit?  Do you not think that speed is an important factor in sports ? All of these things go into winning or losing, but may not show up on some of the alphabet soup of today's multitude of stats. Maybe you should check with Dustin Pedroia. I am a little tired of hearing things like " studies have shown " or " experts say" this or that. Just watch baseball games.  Watch the reality of what happens. Don't try to spin things to suit your own preferences.

    [/QUOTE]


    Wow, you ask a lot of questions.  ;-)

    1.  Not only is the pitcher distracted, but the hitter is distracted as well.  More than you might think.

    2.  Of course holding a runner creates a hole.  But runners who are not base stealing threats are held on too.  That hole is there whenever there is a base runner on first (except in cases where defensive indifference would apply).

    Having a runner of first who is NOT a disruptive runner, with less than 2 outs, is a big advantage to a batter.  Having a base stealing threat on first, with less than 2 outs, not so much.  If said base stealer then steals, the advantage to the hitter goes down even more.

    3.  Yes, a hitter is more likely to get a fastball (as studies have shown), but the hitter is also more likely to take a pitch or two, putting himself behind in the count.

    4.  Yes, speed is an important factor in sports.  Stolen bases, OTOH, are largely overrated.

    A disruptive runner like Ellsbury or Billy Hamilton is more likely to have a negative effect on the hitter at the plate than a positive one.  As always, there are exceptions.

    I am very tired of hearing things like "I don't need stats, I watch the games" and of people dismissing stats or studies because they don't support their opinions.  If someone wants to continue believing what they believe because they watch the games and they know what they see, despite the data proving otherwise, there really is no point in trying to debate.

    FTR, I once believed that the threat of a stolen base was a huge advantage for the batter.  I now know better.

     

    [/QUOTE]


    "stolen bases on the other hand, are largely overrated"? otoh means on the other hand I assume.  ok, i think this is what Miscricket means when she says pay a little more attention to the game and less attention to stats. Do you really mean this or are you just testing to see who reads your posts?

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from slasher9. Show slasher9's posts

    Re: The Ten Million Dollar Hit

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:


    Vernon Wells is getting paid $18.6 million this year by the Angels and $2.4 million by the Yankees to not play at all.



    i think the Mets still pay Bobby Bonilla 1 or 2 million a year and he hasnt played in a decade.


    EDIT.....sorry...just noticed Notin made this point 2 days ago.

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from miscricket. Show miscricket's posts

    Re: The Ten Million Dollar Hit

    In response to steven11's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to RedSoxKimmi's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to dgalehouse's comment:
    [QUOTE]


    Do you think that a pitcher whose attention is distracted by a stolen base threat on first is not a better pitcher to hit against?  Do you not think that holding a runner on creates a bigger hole on the right side ?  Do you not think that the hitter is more likely to get a fastball to hit?  Do you not think that speed is an important factor in sports ? All of these things go into winning or losing, but may not show up on some of the alphabet soup of today's multitude of stats. Maybe you should check with Dustin Pedroia. I am a little tired of hearing things like " studies have shown " or " experts say" this or that. Just watch baseball games.  Watch the reality of what happens. Don't try to spin things to suit your own preferences.

    [/QUOTE]


    Wow, you ask a lot of questions.  ;-)

    1.  Not only is the pitcher distracted, but the hitter is distracted as well.  More than you might think.

    2.  Of course holding a runner creates a hole.  But runners who are not base stealing threats are held on too.  That hole is there whenever there is a base runner on first (except in cases where defensive indifference would apply).

    Having a runner of first who is NOT a disruptive runner, with less than 2 outs, is a big advantage to a batter.  Having a base stealing threat on first, with less than 2 outs, not so much.  If said base stealer then steals, the advantage to the hitter goes down even more.

    3.  Yes, a hitter is more likely to get a fastball (as studies have shown), but the hitter is also more likely to take a pitch or two, putting himself behind in the count.

    4.  Yes, speed is an important factor in sports.  Stolen bases, OTOH, are largely overrated.

    A disruptive runner like Ellsbury or Billy Hamilton is more likely to have a negative effect on the hitter at the plate than a positive one.  As always, there are exceptions.

    I am very tired of hearing things like "I don't need stats, I watch the games" and of people dismissing stats or studies because they don't support their opinions.  If someone wants to continue believing what they believe because they watch the games and they know what they see, despite the data proving otherwise, there really is no point in trying to debate.

    FTR, I once believed that the threat of a stolen base was a huge advantage for the batter.  I now know better.

     

    [/QUOTE]


    "stolen bases on the other hand, are largely overrated"? otoh means on the other hand I assume.  ok, i think this is what Miscricket means when she says pay a little more attention to the game and less attention to stats. Do you really mean this or are you just testing to see who reads your posts?

    [/QUOTE]


    Stolen bases are now overrated? Yikes. Really...why bother watching a game at all...lol. Baseball's entire offensive structure is based on advancing the runner. Stolen bases are an effective tool to that end.

    I don't completely disregard stats. They have their uses and tell some of the story..but again..not everything can be quantified...and again. WAR is largely an opinion not a fact. If you disagree with that...consider this. What is Xander or Holt's offensive WAR compared to Ortiz ( according to ESPN's leader list) What is Ortiz overall WAR? You really want to trust that number?

     

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from 67redsox. Show 67redsox's posts

    Re: The Ten Million Dollar Hit

    In response to jam789123's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Cheer up everyone.  Drew's pay per hit (PPH) average may not go down today but his pay per at bat (PPAB) should.  Maybe he will actually turn one of those AWESOME double plays with Pedey which will increase his WAR, FWAR and PWAR numbers to all-star status and this signing will become a bargain.  Maybe he will even do so well today that the Sox immediately extend him for the 3 yr./39 million contract Boras was talking about thereby keeping him out of the hands of the twenty other teams that are salivating over the chance to sign him after this year.

    [/QUOTE]

    Very clever!
    [object HTMLDivElement]

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from 67redsox. Show 67redsox's posts

    Re: The Ten Million Dollar Hit

    In response to miscricket's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I don't think the Drew signing , in theory, is a bad one ( though it certainly looks so now). No one can really predict the future and at the time Drew was signed..it seemed like a good idea. Perhaps if the Sox FO had waited a week they wouldn't have signed him at all.

    I don't put too much stock in WAR. To me it is more an opinion than fact.  Defense will always be very hard to quantify..but nevertheless the stat geeks will try.

    "It is not down in any map...trueplaces never are...." ( Melville)

    [/QUOTE]

    I think they were desperate at the time so they felt they had to do something.  If drew worked out people would be praising the move.  He may still contribute, who knows he may hit the game winning grandslam in game 7 of the world series.  Or not

    [object HTMLDivElement]

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from 67redsox. Show 67redsox's posts

    Re: The Ten Million Dollar Hit

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to jam789123's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    WAR..what's it good for ....absolutely nothing.

       Just like Stephen Drew.

    [/QUOTE]

    Really useful input.

     

    [/QUOTE]

    It was funny, I liked it.
    [object HTMLDivElement]

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from 67redsox. Show 67redsox's posts

    Re: The Ten Million Dollar Hit

    I just finished reading throught his thread.  Very well done, great debates.  It all comes down to how do you enjoy your sox?  With or without a heap of stats?  I like my sox with a few stats while some here like lots of stats.  I'm sure we can all agree that we would like more numbers in the win column.

     

    Great minds discuss ideas; average minds discuss events; small minds discuss people.  

    Eleanor Roosevelt











     

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedSoxKimmi. Show RedSoxKimmi's posts

    Re: The Ten Million Dollar Hit

    In response to steven11's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Stats of course are important and obviously what a player goes to the bargaining table with.  Runners who are not base stealing threats don't have balls thrown over to first like when JBJ is on.  You can diminish all you want the importance of having a runner with speed on first.  Annoying a pitcher so that he has to throw to first is something the offensive team would rather have than not.  I remember Tony Gwynn talking about this in his brief announcing career.

    When Dave Roberts was on the national announcers used to say he gave pitchers heart attacks.

    [/QUOTE]


    I am not diminishing anything.  As counter-intuitive as it may seem, having a disruptive runner on first base does more harm to the offensive team than it does good, on average.  This is not my opinion.  This is fact.

    The real benefit comes from just having a runner on first base with less than 2 outs.  This opens up holes defensively whether the runner is a base stealing threat or not.  When the runner on 1st base is jumping around, etc., the batter loses this advantage.  When the runner on first base is not disruptive, the advantage stays with the hitter.

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedSoxKimmi. Show RedSoxKimmi's posts

    Re: The Ten Million Dollar Hit

    In response to steven11's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    "stolen bases on the other hand, are largely overrated"? otoh means on the other hand I assume.  ok, i think this is what Miscricket means when she says pay a little more attention to the game and less attention to stats. Do you really mean this or are you just testing to see who reads your posts?

    [/QUOTE]


    Contrary to popular belief, those who like stats are not watching the games with stat books in hand, recalculating every stat after every play.  Stats almost never enter my mind when I am watching a game.  In other words, I pay attention to the games, probably more so than most people here.

    I also don't make posts about things like this on a whim.  If I post something, you can bet that it has been well researched and that I can back up what I say.  So yes, I really mean that stolen bases are overrated.

    That's not to say that there aren't times when a stolen base is crucial.  The Dave Roberts steal is one such case.  But on the whole, they aren't as important as most people think they are.

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from steven11. Show steven11's posts

    Re: The Ten Million Dollar Hit

    In response to 67redsox's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I just finished reading throught his thread.  Very well done, great debates.  It all comes down to how do you enjoy your sox?  With or without a heap of stats?  I like my sox with a few stats while some here like lots of stats.  I'm sure we can all agree that we would like more numbers in the win column.

     

    Great minds discuss ideas; average minds discuss events; small minds discuss people.  

    Eleanor Roosevelt











     

    [/QUOTE]


    Yes 67, numbers in the win column is the best stat to have.

     

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