The Truth About # 5-6 Starters in the AL

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from dgalehouse. Show dgalehouse's posts

    Re: The Truth About # 5-6 Starters in the AL

    In Response to Re: The Truth About # 5-6 Starters in the AL:
    [QUOTE]Good post "dgale"!  I agree 110% with your thoughts. 
    Posted by lucbom[/QUOTE]
    Thank you.
     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from JimfromFlorida. Show JimfromFlorida's posts

    Re: The Truth About # 5-6 Starters in the AL

    In Response to Re: The Truth About # 5-6 Starters in the AL:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: For a team with championship aspirations , a pitcher with an ERA over five should not be starting on a consistent basis , if someone else can do better. That is all I am saying.
    Posted by dgalehouse[/QUOTE]

    You are right if there is some one better they should start. However based upon history and current stats what you are being shown is that there generally no one better thus they are considered the 5th and 6th starters. The conotation of 1 thru 5 has been there forever so knowing that what is being stated by the OP is true on most all teams. There have been few through out MLB history with staffs like the current Phillies. I can remember bact to the old saying from the Braves

    "First we'll use Spahn, then we'll use Sain, Then an off day, followed by rain. Back will come Spahn, followed by Sain, And followed, we hope, by two days of rain.".
     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from georom4. Show georom4's posts

    Re: The Truth About # 5-6 Starters in the AL

    Moon is just trying to do some damage control for an underwhelming Wake performance..you have got to admire the spin control...Im glad Wake is one step closer to erasing Roidger's record so i will take that and a "W"....I sort of agree with Moon that the bottom of the rotation is not impressive anywhere...including Boston's...it's just that our guy is so old that it makes his starts interesting as he chases the record books....

    but if this is the most we can complain about - then we are doing pretty well...
     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from Your-Echo. Show Your-Echo's posts

    Re: The Truth About # 5-6 Starters in the AL

    If Bucholz returns and shines and next year Renaudo blossoms, then we will have no debates about #5 starters. The Jake and Drew bashing debate will be over with. What will we do here. Of course the bash Tito brigade led by Bosox1941 / Georom will still be alive ( unless the forum gets smarter). Harness will need to do something to draw more traffic. Burrito will be wandering Cambodia chasing a dog to eat for supper, bad days ahead.

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from harness. Show harness's posts

    Re: The Truth About # 5-6 Starters in the AL

    That was good. Even a blind poster finds an oyster...
     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from BurritoT. Show BurritoT's posts

    Re: The Truth About # 5-6 Starters in the AL

    I have had Clay on my fantasy team DL ... I kept him because I know he is good and because I am Red Sox fan. Your suggestion otherwise is wrong.

    The worse thing that happened to me in the league is that the Commsioner vetoed my trade of Cliff Lee and Justin Smoak for Youk. I had to then trade Lee for Cano straight up. Though Cano is technically better than Youk in a fantasy rating I am still upset 2 months later.

    Drew remains one of the Red Sox players unsigned in my 20 team league, same for Lackey... that is how bad they are.
     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from harness. Show harness's posts

    Re: The Truth About # 5-6 Starters in the AL

    In Response to Re: The Truth About # 5-6 Starters in the AL:
    [QUOTE]I have had Clay on my fantasy team DL ... I kept him because I know he is good and because I am Red Sox fan. Your suggestion otherwise is wrong. The worse thing that happened to me in the league is that the Commsioner vetoedmy trade of Cliff Lee and Justin Smoak for Youk. I had to then trade Lee for Cano straight up. Though Cano is technically better than Youk in a fantasy rating I am still upset 2 months later. Drew remains one of the Red Sox players unsigned in my 20 team league, same for Lackey... that is how bad they are.
    Posted by BurritoT[/QUOTE]


    That's because your
    'commsioner' is an absentee number.
     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from Your-Echo. Show Your-Echo's posts

    Re: The Truth About # 5-6 Starters in the AL

    Why do posters on the west coast stay on here through 4 a.m. their time? Better yet, why does a NH poster stay up all night until 7 a.m. his time talking to Kim.? Why does a North Carolina troll stay up throughout the night until 7 a.m. his time? Are you people crazy or do you work the night shift for the Globe?

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from harness. Show harness's posts

    Re: The Truth About # 5-6 Starters in the AL

    Why do you continue to illuminate your obsession on every thread?
     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: The Truth About # 5-6 Starters in the AL

    The usual argument is that Aceves is " too valuable in the pen."  Also, the fact that his ERA as a reliever is better than as a starter. However, he has not gotten very many chances to start, so it is hard to say that he could not do it effectively. 

    He is too valuable to start.  He's been crazy good.
     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: The Truth About # 5-6 Starters in the AL

     If your ERA is over 5.00 , you really should not be starting on a consistent basis if there is someone on hand who can do better

    I think it's fairly clear that your best 5 SPs should start, regardless of ERA.
     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from Your-Echo. Show Your-Echo's posts

    Re: The Truth About # 5-6 Starters in the AL

    Spahn and Sain and pray for rain. What if the Braves fans had an internet chatroom back then? We obsess over the #5 and #6 pitchers for six months per year here. Poor Cater would have threads about the #3, #4, #5, #6 pitchers daily.

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from harness. Show harness's posts

    Re: The Truth About # 5-6 Starters in the AL

    Are you watching the game, Pike?
     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: The Truth About # 5-6 Starters in the AL

     For a team with championship aspirations , a pitcher with an ERA over five should not be starting on a consistent basis

    Not necessarily.  You need to base the judgement on cost.  5.00 is probably about average for a #5.  So let's you can get a #5 with a 5.00 for $1M, or a #5 with a 4.60 for $5M, you'd have to think how much you can get elswhere for that $4M difference.
     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: The Truth About # 5-6 Starters in the AL

    Let me word it this way:

    The only AL teams with their 6th best ERA starter that has an ERA below  5.00 ERA are:

    Bos
    5) Wake   6-3  5.15 (13 starts)
    6) Dice-K  3-3  5.30  (7) -- ON DL

    Minn
    5) Duensing  7-8  4.53  (19)
    6) Liriano      6-7  4.56  (17)

    Oak (* ERA effected by large park)
    5) Cahill  8-9  3.77  (22)
    6) Ander 3-6  4.00  (13)
    7) Hard   2-1  4.63  (4)

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: The Truth About # 5-6 Starters in the AL

    In Response to Re: The Truth About # 5-6 Starters in the AL:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: The Truth About # 5-6 Starters in the AL : Fair enough moon and I agree.  My point is very few 4/5 or even 6th, starters make Burnett or John type money so mediocrity is expected.  An owner/GM would expect a bit more consistency out of guys like John and AJ.  I don't dislike Lackey, or for that matter anyone on our team but was expecting more when he was signed. When Wake shows as much or more consistency than an 80mil investment there has to be some cause for concern No?
    Posted by craze4sox[/QUOTE]

    It's a huge concern, yes! What I don't get is all the vitriol directed at our $2M pitcher (Wake). 
     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from harness. Show harness's posts

    Re: The Truth About # 5-6 Starters in the AL

    You need ask?
     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: The Truth About # 5-6 Starters in the AL

    In Response to Re: The Truth About # 5-6 Starters in the AL:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: The Truth About # 5-6 Starters in the AL : You are getting a little carried away. I don't expect perfection, at all. Just going by what I have seen , it is my opinion that Aceves would be a better choice to start than Wake.  You can argue that , if you want.  The usual argument is that Aceves is " too valuable in the pen."  Also, the fact that his ERA as a reliever is better than as a starter. However, he has not gotten very many chances to start, so it is hard to say that he could not do it effectively.  Just going by what I have seen , I think Aceves is a better pitcher than Wake. I would like to see him get a full shot.  I fully understand that Wake has an army of faithful fans, but that should not get in the way of objectivity.  The so called " fifth starter " is more important than the long reliever, in my opinion.  And, the best pitcher should get the shot. That is all I am saying.
    Posted by dgalehouse[/QUOTE]

    I have said from the first day of the season that only Aceves has a legitimate claim to the 5 slot over Wake (since Dice-K is on the DL). He has pitched very well and has only 4 starts as a 2011 sample size.

    With Buch out and Beckett and Lester sure bets, these are our choices for the last 3 slots:
    (This seems to be Tito's slot selections)

    3) Lackey
    4) Miller
    5) Wake
    6) Weiland
    7) Aceves

    Lackey has looked very good for 3 straight starts, so I wouldn't advocate taking him out when (if) Buch comes back. His numbers are way worse than Wake and Miller.

    Miller has also shown promise, but his 1.472 WHIP is scary. I've heard some say he should be our LH'd reliever, but I'm not sure he is suited for that role. He walks too many people to be brought in with men on base in a tight game.

    Wake has not done well his last few starts. His numbers are not as good looking as he has pitched. I know many of you don't believe this or don't want to believe this, but no other Sox starter has more inherited runs allowed to score (that goes against his ERA). Like I have said, I think Wake should not start all year long; he should get a break at some point. I'm not sure if now is the time, but I think He should get a 2-3 start break soon.

    Weiland is not well known. I can't know what to expect from him. I'd say it is a big gamble to count on him to give us many good starts in a long stretch.

    Aceves could be the best of this group, but Tito seems to want him to stay in his current role. If he does start, I do not think Tito would pitch him for more than 4-5 innings for a few starts, so we'd need a long man anyways.
     
    I have mentioned my idea of tandem starters, but it's not going to ever happen here.
     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: The Truth About # 5-6 Starters in the AL

    In Response to Re: The Truth About # 5-6 Starters in the AL:
    [QUOTE] For a team with championship aspirations , a pitcher with an ERA over five should not be starting on a consistent basis Not necessarily.  You need to base the judgement on cost.  5.00 is probably about average for a #5.  So let's you can get a #5 with a 5.00 for $1M, or a #5 with a 4.60 for $5M, you'd have to think how much you can get elswhere for that $4M difference.
    Posted by Joebreidey[/QUOTE]

    We had guys with ERA's over 5 in both title years and you would have to say they were important contributors in spite of the high ERA.  D-Lowe in 2004 was a good pitcher having an off-year.  Tavarez in 2007 was a useful swing guy.    
     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: The Truth About # 5-6 Starters in the AL

    In Response to Re: The Truth About # 5-6 Starters in the AL:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: The Truth About # 5-6 Starters in the AL : We had guys with ERA's over 5 in both title years and you would have to say they were important contributors in spite of the high ERA.  D-Lowe in 2004 was a good pitcher having an off-year.  Tavarez in 2007 was a useful swing guy.    
    Posted by Hfxsoxnut[/QUOTE]

    Good point. I'd bet most recent WS teams had a 5th or significant 6th starter with plus 5 ERAs.

    Boston 2007: Tavarez 7-11  5.15  (1.500 WHIP) and 23 starts!

    Boston 2004: D. Lowe  14-12  5.42 (1.615 WHIP) and 33 starts!

    Wake has a 1.399 WHIP as a starter this year (1.360 overall).

    Our 2008 team made it to the ALCS with this:
    16 starts (5th most on team) by Buchholtz with this:
    2-9  6.75 (1.763)
    We also had 8 starts from Paul Byrd at 4-2  4.78 (1.388)

    In 2010, the Rangers made it to the WS with 2 ot their top 5 starters by GS with ERAs over 5.00:
    Scott Feldman  7-11  5.48 (22 GS)
    Rich Harden        5-5   5.58 (18 GS)

    The Yanks lost to the Rangers in 2010, but look what they had:
    33 starts by Burnett 5.26 ERA (1.511 WHIP)
    31 starts by Vazquez 5.32 ERA (1.398)
    9 starts by D. Moseley 4.96 ERA (1.423)

    In 2009, amazingly, the Yanks had 4 starters with 32 + GS'ed!
    Joba was not over 5.00, but he was close and had a high WHIP:
    9-6  4.75  (1.544) 
    Here were the Yankee 5/6 starter numbers in 2009:
    Wang  1-6  9.64  (9GS)
    Mitre   3-3  6.79  (9GS)

    The team the Yankees faced in the AL Championship season was LAA. The Angels had Ervin Santana with the 4th most starts on the team (24) and a 5.03 ERA & a 1.475 WHIP. They also has Sean O'Sullivan with 10 GS and a 5.92 ERA & a 1.471 WHIP.

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from kimsaysthis. Show kimsaysthis's posts

    Re: The Truth About # 5-6 Starters in the AL

    The best pitcher usually pitches against the best pitcher on the opposing team, and so on down the pitching ladder. That should be included somehow in how pitchers are evaluated.

    Sorry, just a shot at the win/loss stat. Carry on. :)
     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: The Truth About # 5-6 Starters in the AL

    That happens a lot at the start of the year, but I think by now, it's pretty jumbled up.
     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from craze4sox. Show craze4sox's posts

    Re: The Truth About # 5-6 Starters in the AL

    In Response to Re: The Truth About # 5-6 Starters in the AL:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: The Truth About # 5-6 Starters in the AL : It's a huge concern, yes! What I don't get is all the vitriol directed at our $2M pitcher (Wake). 
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]

    moon,

    My point is Wake is 44 and pitching better than Lackey while making only 2mil.  Lackey is pitching like our 5th/6th starter who should be making Wakes salary or a little more.  Dice K. is also better than John at only 10mil, even though we spent a fortune bidding on him.

    This can't sit very well with management and is also why fans "rightfully" criticize John.  The bottom line is every win counts whether Lackey needs our offense to bail him out of a jamb or not.
     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: The Truth About # 5-6 Starters in the AL

    I agree, and I am gaining confidence in Lackey. (I may be in a small group.)

    His salary all but assures he will stay in the rotation, so if Buch doesn't come back soon, it is really about the other 2 slots (Wake, Miller, Aceves, Weiland- now in AAA).
     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: The Truth About # 5-6 Starters in the AL

    Updated numbers:

    Overall ERA:
    1) Beckett 2.07
    2) Lester   3.23
    3) Aceves  3.44
    4) Buch      3.48
    5) Wake     5.15
    6) Dice        5.30
    7) Miller     5.45____________
    8) Lackey  6.28
    9) Weiland 8.10

    Starter ERA:
    1) Beck  2.07
    2) Lest   3.23
    3) Buch  3.48
    4) Dice   4.95
    5) Acev  5.14
    6) Wake 5.22
    7) Miller 5.45_______
    8) Lack  6.28
    9) Wel   8.10

    Overall WHIP (Starter WHIP)
    1) Beckett  0.905  (0.905)
    2) Lester    1.228  (1.228)
    3) Buch       1.294  (1.294)
    4) Aceves   1.176  (1.571-7th)
    5) Wake      1.360  (1.399 -4th)
    6) Dice        1.473  (1.404-5th)
    7) Lackey   1.538  (1.538-6th)_________________
    8) Miller      1.900  (1.900) (Estimateafter tonight)
    9) Weiland 1.900  (1.900)
     
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