This Months Deals: An Overview

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    This Months Deals: An Overview

    AJP for nothing:


    Not much to say, except "addition by subtraction" and give the kids a chance to play.


    ________________________________________________


    Peavy for Edwin Escobar & Heath Hembree: Excellent deal.


    Hembree was 6th best Giants' prospect last year and Escobar was the 10th best. Here are some write-ups from MLB.com:


    Hembree: He had a huge 2011 season that put him firmly on the "future closers" map and despite the hiccup in Fresno, he still should be there. He'll throw his power sinking fastball up to 97 mph and back it up with a hard slider that has cutter-like action. He'll mix in an occasional changeup for a different look, though it's not really an effective part of his arsenal.


    Escobar: This solid and stocky southpaw had spent a little time in full-season ball in 2011, then hit it full-time in 2012, finishing fourth in the organization in ERA and third in WHIP. He'll run his fastball up to 94 mph with quick arm action, though he does throw across his body. He can sink and cut his fastball and throws an effective sinking changeup. His wide three-quarters curve has the chance to be an average pitch and shows occasional sharp bite. He understands how to mix his pitches well for a young hurler, which should bode well as he moves up the ladder.


    _________________________________________________________


    Doubront for PTBNL (after Rule 5 deadline): Unknown.


    The fact that we get a player after the rule 5 deadline should help us with a roster crunch.


    ___________________________________________________


    Lester, Gomes & Cash for Yoenis Cespedes and a draft pick: Looks bad on the surface. Cespedes can become a free agent after 2015 with no chance for a comp pick. I expected more. I expected longer term players.


    Cespedes turns 29 this October. His .318 career OBP is not good, and it's been under .303 for the last 2 years. His .470 SLG% is decent. He's on pace for hitting over 23 Hrs for 3 straight years. I get the argument that Nava is better vs RHPs and Gomes is better vs LHPs, but Cespedes takes up just one roster spot and has the potential to do better than those two as a platoon. He's also a better fielder than both.


    Competitive Balance Draft Pick: Nice to have, but I expected more.


    ______________________________________________________________


    Lackey, Litrell, and Cash for Allen Craig and Joe Kelly: Good deal. I was one who believed Lackey would play for just $500K next year, but I'm glad I don't need to find out. Litrell was not likely to be a high impact ML player.


    Allen Craig: He just turned 30 and is under team control through 2018. His luxury tax salary counts as only $6.2M. His career UZR/150 numbers show he is about an average OF'er and 1Bman. His career .803 OPS is very good (.343 OBP/.460 SLG), but it has fallen steadily since 2011: .917>.876>.830>.638.


    Joe Kelly just turned 26 and has not even reached arb yet. He has 3 arb years beginning in 2016. He has a 3.25 ERA in over 266 IP since coming up to the bigs in 2012. His 4.37 ERA this year in just 35 IP should not be held aginst him. This guy has very good upside potential. It's the type of player I hoped we'd be picking up at the deadline.


    _____________________________________________________________


    Miller for Eduardo Rodriguez: Hard to tell how this trade will work out, but getting nothing for Miller after this year seems worse than any prospect gained, and Rodrigues was rated highly before the season began.


    Eduardo Rodriguez: He is 21 and has struggled since being called up to AA last year, but he was rated the 85th best prospect in MLB in 2013. Here is what MLB.com had to say about him:


    It's amazing what growth and maturity can do for a young player. Rodriguez looked like a finesse lefty when he started out his pro career. The Venezuelan's stuff was much better during his 2012 full-season debut, with a tailing fastball that should be above-average. His breaking ball is still a bit inconsistent, but it shows occasional sharp bite and his changeup has improved some as well. He's lean and lanky with some deception to his delivery. He generally throws strikes and if he can keep developing on this path, he has a future as a big league starter.


    _______________________________________________________________


    Drew for Kelly Johnson: this deal makes zero sense to me, except that it saves us money. Both are FAs after this year, so we basically got nothing for Drew, except some salary relief.


    _______________________________________________________________


    Overall, we picked up:


    Yoenis Cespedes, Allen Craig, Joe Kelly, Heath Hembree, Edwin Escobar, Eduardo Rodriguez, a PTBNL (from the Cubs), and a 2015 Comp Pick from the A's.


    We gave up nobody under team control beyond this year, except 1 year of Lackey, 3 arb years of Doubront, and several years of control for Litrell.


    I seriously doubt we sign any of these players we traded this winter, but we can sign players like Max Scherzer, Jamie Shields, Nelson Cruz, Pablo Sandoval, Hanley Ramirez, Michael Cuddyer or others. We also have a huge stockpile of prospects, some of which can be packaged for 1 or 2 high impact players.


    That remains to be seen, but certainly our long term future looks brighter after these trades, if we assume none of these guys (excepta Lackey, Doubront & Litrell) were coming back next year had they not been traded. To me, arguing the merits of not extending Lester, Miller or others is a separate debate, although I can certainly understand those who feel like this cannot be separated from today's actions.


    Finally, some here doubted so many deals could be orchestrated in such a short time. I'm sure Ben & Co. have been run ragged by the today, but we basically did what needed to be done, and set ourselves up for some blockbuster signings and deals this upcoming winter.


    I'll update the luxury budget outlook and 40 man roster issues over the next few days.


    I welcome your opinions and comments.


    Sox4ever

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: This Months Deals: An Overview

    We still should have over $60M to spend this winter. I haven't crunched all the new numbers yet, but Craig's luxury tax cost only counts at $6.2M and Cespedes at $9M. I think that leaves us about $65M to spend.

    Here's a rough outline of what next year's 40 man roster looks like before any winter moves are made:

    SP (choose 11): __________, __________, Kelly, Buchholz, de la Rosa, Workman, Ranaudo, Barnes, Owens, L. Diaz (?), Wright (?), Escobar

    RP (choose 8): __________, Tazawa, Breslow(?), Mujica (?), Britton, Webster, A Wilson, Hembree, N Ramirez

    C (choose 3): ___________, Vazquez, Swihart, Lavarnway or Butler

    1B (choose 2): Napoli, Carp or T Shaw

    2B (choose 1-2): Pedroia, Coyle or Herrera

    3B (3): Bogaerts (SS?), Middlebrooks (LF/1B?), Cecchini (LF?)

    SS (1): __________, Marrero (not needed to add to 40 man roster)

    LF (choose 2-3): Craig (1B?), Nava, Hassan, Brentz, de la Cruz

    CF (2-3): Bradley, Betts, H Ramos

    RF (3): Cespedes, Victorino, Holt (IF/OF)

    DH (1): Ortiz 

    If we make a blockbuster deal for someone like Tulo or Stanton and sign Uehara and a couple very good SP'ers, we can be a strong contender in 2015.

    Sox4ever

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from oscar41. Show oscar41's posts

    Re: This Months Deals: An Overview

    Moving Drew also allows the sox to assess Bogaerts and perhaps Marerro over the next 50 games at SS.

    it also gives them the opportunity to get Middlebrooks back in the lineup at 3B, to see if he can find his HR stroke again. 

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from jasko2248. Show jasko2248's posts

    Re: This Months Deals: An Overview

     The Drew for Johnson deal is all about moving Bogaerts back to SS, which may end up being the best move of the day.  Johnson is a "roster maneuver."  Pretty obvious.  You never liked Bogaerts as a SS, so now your "baffled."  

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from Beantowne. Show Beantowne's posts

    Re: This Months Deals: An Overview

    Moon,


    Solid breakdown.


    End of the day the Sox are retooling their roster with an eye on 2016 and beyond. Hard to imagine it's come to this but fact of the matter is that while our system continues to produce quantity the lack of impact players coming up through the system is what has led to the current plight. Many can and will quibble over the cause and try to affix blame on Henry, Luccino & Werner for not opening their wallets and for the many curious roster decisions under their leadership by both the Epstein and Cherington regimes. Fact is 3 WS tittles in a decade after 86 years of wait til next year makes it hard to argue with the results...We shall in the coming years see if they have the ability to rebuild the nucleus, rise from the ashes to hoist another. My intuition suggest we may be in for a couple of lean years... 

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: This Months Deals: An Overview

    In response to RigatoniT's comment:

    It is awesome we get all of August and September to work out who will or might be a big help in 2015.... I still hold until 2016 before I start demanding another WSC.  

    The team has the payroll flex to sign 2 or 3 FA's. You still could see one of Cespedes/Craig moved over the winter as part of a better deal for the team..... 

    The farmhand starting pitching is who will really be benefit these next two months... no more spot starts, these guys will be full-on.

    Thrilled is the short answer to this house cleaning..... 

    Only a matter of time the "Bring back Hanley" threads are launched, except this time it is plausible.




    Good points.

    Maybe Napoli will be the one moved as Craig has longer team control at less cost.

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: This Months Deals: An Overview

    In response to jasko2248's comment:


     The Drew for Johnson deal is all about moving Bogaerts back to SS, which may end up being the best move of the day.  Johnson is a "roster maneuver."  Pretty obvious.  You never liked Bogaerts as a SS, so now your "baffled."  






    I'm baffled more because I thought we could have paid most of Drew's contract and gotten a decent prospect. I didn't think we were the type of team that needed to dump salary, especially after getting off the hook for a few million in earlier trades.


    I'm not really baffled that Sox management might give Bogey another shot at SS, but yes, I do not see him ever becoming a plus fielder at SS. I get the argument that his offense might outweigh his defensive issues, and I get the argument that he is still young enough to improve at SS, but with so many other positions open (3B & OF) going forward, I have always felt moving him sooner rather than later made more sense.


    We still may end up seeing Marrero at SS (or an outside the system player like Tulo) and Bogey at 3B or in LF within a year or two.

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: This Months Deals: An Overview

    In response to Beantowne's comment:

    Moon,

     

    Solid breakdown.

     

    End of the day the Sox are retooling their roster with an eye on 2016 and beyond. Hard to imagine it's come to this but fact of the matter is that while our system continues to produce quantity the lack of impact players coming up through the system is what has led to the current plight. Many can and will quibble over the cause and try to affix blame on Henry, Luccino & Werner for not opening their wallets and for the many curious roster decisions under their leadership by both the Epstein and Cherington regimes. Fact is 3 WS tittles in a decade after 86 years of wait til next year makes it hard to argue with the results...We shall in the coming years see if they have the ability to rebuild the nucleus, rise from the ashes to hoist another. My intuition suggest we may be in for a couple of lean years... 




    I do not disagree with anything here, but feel that the Lester for Cespedes deal was basically all about 2015, unless we trade Cespedes at some point. Lester was the kingpin of our firesale and could have brought us the most and best longer term prospects (2016 and beyond). That move alone makes me think Ben & Co. want to make a serious run at 2015. If they can do it or not remains to be seen.

    As I have said before, we have about $60-65M to spend and a big stockpile of prospects to deal to fill just 3-4 slots (Ace, SP#2, Closer & Big Bopper at SS/3B/OF). If we could land 3-4 players from this list, we could become instant contenders:

    Trade: Stanton or Tulo

    FA: Scherzer, Lester, Shields, HanRam, Sandoval, Cruz, Cuddyer

    Some lesser options:

    SP: J Hammel, Masterson, C Lewis, Vogelsong and several more

    SS: JJ Hardy, A Cabrera, Lowrie (3B?)

    3B: Headley

    OF: M Cabrera, R Davis, C Rasmus, S Smith, Willingham

    C: Martin, Ross, Soto, Olivo 

     

    Here's what MLBTR had to say today about the Sox trades:

    ...the Red Sox parted with the club’s two best pitchers, two other members of the World Series-defending, Opening Day rotation, a dominant set-up man, and a just-signed veteran shortstop (and what a journey it’s been for Drew). But this was no traditional roster blow-up; instead, Boston returned mostly big league pieces that changed the team’s makeup dramatically but gave notice that it intends to contend next year. Adding power bats to the corner outfield and young arms to the current and near-future rotation — the team now has an impressive array of young arms and other prospects — the Red Sox look primed to add yet more more pieces in free agency and aim for another title run. GM Ben Cherington said that the team will be a player for veteran pitching in free agency, and reports even indicated that the team could have its sights set on a reunion with Lester. It remains to be seen whether Boston would have been better served by pushing its clock further back and perhaps bringing in more upside, but if Cespedes and Craig can return to their 2012 levels of production, Boston will be right back in the thick of things in 2015.

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: This Months Deals: An Overview

    Not saying i LOVE these deals, but it's not hard to read the writing on the wall.

    System strengths and weakness at the top: 

    Strengths =  Pitching. Weakness = Hitting, particularly in the outfield

    The minor league system reflects more of the same a surplus a pitching and a deficiency of outfield power.

    Now the Red Sox became sellers....but first lets look ahead to the next off season.

    What do the Red Sox have plenty of???? Cash and pay roll space.

    What is their more of in this years free agency market pitching or Offense??? PITCHING.

     

    I think what the Sox went with here was a 2 part strategy.  They know they don't have many options to fix the offense in free agency, but there are better options to fix the top half of their rotation.  So they traded from their surplus of pitching to bring in some bats and now they have another hole to fill but they have the money to spend and are probably more comfortable with the big arms on this years market as opposed to the big bats.

    Now we have a very young and inexperienced team, that despite being VERY talented, is also likely to fail.  We should be able to compete for a top 10 draft pick to bring in top end talent and still be able to sign a free agent without losing our first round pick.  I mean Hypothetically we could sign both Lester and Scherz...and still get a top ten pick.   Although I think expecting the Sox to make an honest run at one of them is more realistic. 

    This was part 1.  Part two begins after the world series.....are you ready??????

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: This Months Deals: An Overview

    What do the Red Sox have plenty of???? Cash and pay roll space.

    ...and a massive stockpile of tradable prospects and young players- many of whom are currently blocked.

    We can make 1 blockbuster deal trading away 4-5 good prospects and still have a strong farm.

    We can sign $65M or so in free agents, but will have to go long on some to get the best of the best- that remains to be seen.

     

    Sox4ever

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: This Months Deals: An Overview

    I think what the Sox went with here was a 2 part strategy. They know they don't have many options to fix the offense in free agency, but there are better options to fix the top half of their rotation. So they traded from their surplus of pitching to bring in some bats and now they have another hole to fill but they have the money to spend and are probably more comfortable with the big arms on this years market as opposed to the big bats.

    Now we have a very young and inexperienced team, that despite being VERY talented, is also likely to fail. We should be able to compete for a top 10 draft pick to bring in top end talent and still be able to sign a free agent without losing our first round pick. I mean Hypothetically we could sign both Lester and Scherz...and still get a top ten pick. Although I think expecting the Sox to make an honest run at one of them is more realistic.

    It makes sense for the Sox to throw out their playbook this winter and sign 2 SP'ers large & long (out of Scherzer, Lester & Shields). 

    1) We don't lose a draft pick, because we will have a protected pick by finishing in the bottom 10.

    2) We have $65M to spend and just a few holes on offense- SS or 3B (Tulo or HanRam?) and a back-up catcher.

    3) We can even afford to go over the luxury tax limit for one year, if needed.

     

    Sox4ever

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from SinceYaz. Show SinceYaz's posts

    Re: This Months Deals: An Overview

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    AJP for nothing:

     

    Not much to say, except "addition by subtraction" and give the kids a chance to play.

     

    ________________________________________________

     

    Peavy for Edwin Escobar & Heath Hembree: Excellent deal.

     

    Hembree was 6th best Giants' prospect last year and Escobar was the 10th best. Here are some write-ups from MLB.com:

     

    Hembree: He had a huge 2011 season that put him firmly on the "future closers" map and despite the hiccup in Fresno, he still should be there. He'll throw his power sinking fastball up to 97 mph and back it up with a hard slider that has cutter-like action. He'll mix in an occasional changeup for a different look, though it's not really an effective part of his arsenal.

     

    Escobar: This solid and stocky southpaw had spent a little time in full-season ball in 2011, then hit it full-time in 2012, finishing fourth in the organization in ERA and third in WHIP. He'll run his fastball up to 94 mph with quick arm action, though he does throw across his body. He can sink and cut his fastball and throws an effective sinking changeup. His wide three-quarters curve has the chance to be an average pitch and shows occasional sharp bite. He understands how to mix his pitches well for a young hurler, which should bode well as he moves up the ladder.

     

    _________________________________________________________

     

    Doubront for PTBNL (after Rule 5 deadline): Unknown.

     

    The fact that we get a player after the rule 5 deadline should help us with a roster crunch.

     

    ___________________________________________________

     

    Lester, Gomes & Cash for Yoenis Cespedes and a draft pick: Looks bad on the surface. Cespedes can become a free agent after 2015 with no chance for a comp pick. I expected more. I expected longer term players.

     

    Cespedes turns 29 this October. His .318 career OBP is not good, and it's been under .303 for the last 2 years. His .470 SLG% is decent. He's on pace for hitting over 23 Hrs for 3 straight years. I get the argument that Nava is better vs RHPs and Gomes is better vs LHPs, but Cespedes takes up just one roster spot and has the potential to do better than those two as a platoon. He's also a better fielder than both.

     

    Competitive Balance Draft Pick: Nice to have, but I expected more.

     

    ______________________________________________________________

     

    Lackey, Litrell, and Cash for Allen Craig and Joe Kelly: Good deal. I was one who believed Lackey would play for just $500K next year, but I'm glad I don't need to find out. Litrell was not likely to be a high impact ML player.

     

    Allen Craig: He just turned 30 and is under team control through 2018. His luxury tax salary counts as only $6.2M. His career UZR/150 numbers show he is about an average OF'er and 1Bman. His career .803 OPS is very good (.343 OBP/.460 SLG), but it has fallen steadily since 2011: .917>.876>.830>.638.

     

    Joe Kelly just turned 26 and has not even reached arb yet. He has 3 arb years beginning in 2016. He has a 3.25 ERA in over 266 IP since coming up to the bigs in 2012. His 4.37 ERA this year in just 35 IP should not be held aginst him. This guy has very good upside potential. It's the type of player I hoped we'd be picking up at the deadline.

     

    _____________________________________________________________

     

    Miller for Eduardo Rodriguez: Hard to tell how this trade will work out, but getting nothing for Miller after this year seems worse than any prospect gained, and Rodrigues was rated highly before the season began.

     

    Eduardo Rodriguez: He is 21 and has struggled since being called up to AA last year, but he was rated the 85th best prospect in MLB in 2013. Here is what MLB.com had to say about him:

     

    It's amazing what growth and maturity can do for a young player. Rodriguez looked like a finesse lefty when he started out his pro career. The Venezuelan's stuff was much better during his 2012 full-season debut, with a tailing fastball that should be above-average. His breaking ball is still a bit inconsistent, but it shows occasional sharp bite and his changeup has improved some as well. He's lean and lanky with some deception to his delivery. He generally throws strikes and if he can keep developing on this path, he has a future as a big league starter.

     

    _______________________________________________________________

     

    Drew for Kelly Johnson: this deal makes zero sense to me, except that it saves us money. Both are FAs after this year, so we basically got nothing for Drew, except some salary relief.

     

    _______________________________________________________________

     

    Overall, we picked up:

     

    Yoenis Cespedes, Allen Craig, Joe Kelly, Heath Hembree, Edwin Escobar, Eduardo Rodriguez, a PTBNL (from the Cubs), and a 2015 Comp Pick from the A's.

     

    We gave up nobody under team control beyond this year, except 1 year of Lackey, 3 arb years of Doubront, and several years of control for Litrell.

     

    I seriously doubt we sign any of these players we traded this winter, but we can sign players like Max Scherzer, Jamie Shields, Nelson Cruz, Pablo Sandoval, Hanley Ramirez, Michael Cuddyer or others. We also have a huge stockpile of prospects, some of which can be packaged for 1 or 2 high impact players.

     

    That remains to be seen, but certainly our long term future looks brighter after these trades, if we assume none of these guys (excepta Lackey, Doubront & Litrell) were coming back next year had they not been traded. To me, arguing the merits of not extending Lester, Miller or others is a separate debate, although I can certainly understand those who feel like this cannot be separated from today's actions.

     

    Finally, some here doubted so many deals could be orchestrated in such a short time. I'm sure Ben & Co. have been run ragged by the today, but we basically did what needed to be done, and set ourselves up for some blockbuster signings and deals this upcoming winter.

     

    I'll update the luxury budget outlook and 40 man roster issues over the next few days.

     

    I welcome your opinions and comments.

     

    Sox4ever




    [object HTMLDivElement]

     

    Outstanding work, Moon!  I thoroughly enjoyed it and was thankful you took the time - and used your intellect, as usual - to parlay a solid collection of thoughts and comments so it wasn't just wild-eyed, half-witted calls against FHenry, the FO and Farrell.

     

    It helped to turn this day of feeling the desperate loss of Lester, which I feared anyway, into an exciting morning filled with possibilities, even close at hand ones.

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: This Months Deals: An Overview

    Outstanding work, Moon! I thoroughly enjoyed it and was thankful you took the time - and used your intellect, as usual - to parlay a solid collection of thoughts and comments so it wasn't just wild-eyed, half-witted calls against FHenry, the FO and Farrell.


    Thanks.


     


    It helped to turn this day of feeling the desperate loss of Lester, which I feared anyway, into an exciting morning filled with possibilities, even close at hand ones.


    Every decision made should not be viewed in a bubble. Most involve either or situations. For example, had we signed Lester to a $130M/5 deal, it would be about 1/7th of our player payroll budget. The signing would certainly mean we would not be able to spend big money to fill other (multiple) needs. Getting something for Lester (and others) helps in some ways and hurts in others (assuming we could have extended him). We now have Cespedes, a comp pick AND $25+M more to spend each and every year for 5+ years. Surely, that is not as bleak looking as just seeing a last place team now without Lester.


    We got some very good young players, some hopeful vets and a comp pick & PTBNL. We already had an excellent farm and young player core, so now we are even better in that area. My hope is that we choose wisely and deal 4-5 of our better prospects for one impact SP'er (who? I don't know) or positional player (Stanton or Tulo come to mind). Sign 2-4 free agents with the $65M we have, and we could be highly competitive in 2015 while still having a top 6 farm system.


    Let's say, for arguments sake, we trade Betts, Owens, Marrero, Barnes & Bell for Tulo, then sign Scherzer, Shields, Uehara and a decent back-up catcher, we'd have this to watch next season:


    1) Victorino CF (JBJ)


    2) Pedroia 2B


    3) Tulo SS


    4) Ortiz DH


    5) Cespedes RF


    6) Napoli 1B


    7) Craig LF


    8) Bogey/Holt 3B


    9) Vazquez C


    If we trade Vic, Cespedes, Craig or Napoli, we'd have room for JBJ, Holt or Bogey to play FT.


    Our rotation would be: Scherzer, Shields, Buch, Kelly & de la Rosa (Webster/Ranaudo/Workman)


     


    That's a contender.


    That is something to feel excited about!


     


    Sox4ever

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: This Months Deals: An Overview

    It's stunning that the defending World Series champions would trade away four-fifths of a starting rotation that had carried the team in this troubling season.


    But that's what makes the business of baseball so fascinating.


    I wish the Red Sox the best as fans reset their expectations for 2014.


    And, as always, great analysis by moonslav.

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from BosoxJoe5. Show BosoxJoe5's posts

    Re: This Months Deals: An Overview

    In response to Beantowne's comment:

    Moon,

     

    Solid breakdown.

     

    End of the day the Sox are retooling their roster with an eye on 2016 and beyond. Hard to imagine it's come to this but fact of the matter is that while our system continues to produce quantity the lack of impact players coming up through the system is what has led to the current plight. Many can and will quibble over the cause and try to affix blame on Henry, Luccino & Werner for not opening their wallets and for the many curious roster decisions under their leadership by both the Epstein and Cherington regimes. Fact is 3 WS tittles in a decade after 86 years of wait til next year makes it hard to argue with the results...We shall in the coming years see if they have the ability to rebuild the nucleus, rise from the ashes to hoist another. My intuition suggest we may be in for a couple of lean years... 



    Cespedes is a move for 2015. Since he gone afterwards.

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from BosoxJoe5. Show BosoxJoe5's posts

    Re: This Months Deals: An Overview

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    Outstanding work, Moon! I thoroughly enjoyed it and was thankful you took the time - and used your intellect, as usual - to parlay a solid collection of thoughts and comments so it wasn't just wild-eyed, half-witted calls against FHenry, the FO and Farrell.

     

    Thanks.

     

     

     

    It helped to turn this day of feeling the desperate loss of Lester, which I feared anyway, into an exciting morning filled with possibilities, even close at hand ones.

     

    Every decision made should not be viewed in a bubble. Most involve either or situations. For example, had we signed Lester to a $130M/5 deal, it would be about 1/7th of our player payroll budget. The signing would certainly mean we would not be able to spend big money to fill other (multiple) needs. Getting something for Lester (and others) helps in some ways and hurts in others (assuming we could have extended him). We now have Cespedes, a comp pick AND $25+M more to spend each and every year for 5+ years. Surely, that is not as bleak looking as just seeing a last place team now without Lester.

     

    We got some very good young players, some hopeful vets and a comp pick & PTBNL. We already had an excellent farm and young player core, so now we are even better in that area. My hope is that we choose wisely and deal 4-5 of our better prospects for one impact SP'er (who? I don't know) or positional player (Stanton or Tulo come to mind). Sign 2-4 free agents with the $65M we have, and we could be highly competitive in 2015 while still having a top 6 farm system.

     

    Let's say, for arguments sake, we trade Betts, Owens, Marrero, Barnes & Bell for Tulo, then sign Scherzer, Shields, Uehara and a decent back-up catcher, we'd have this to watch next season:

     

    1) Victorino CF (JBJ)

     

    2) Pedroia 2B

     

    3) Tulo SS

     

    4) Ortiz DH

     

    5) Cespedes RF

     

    6) Napoli 1B

     

    7) Craig LF

     

    8) Bogey/Holt 3B

     

    9) Vazquez C

     

    If we trade Vic, Cespedes, Craig or Napoli, we'd have room for JBJ, Holt or Bogey to play FT.

     

    Our rotation would be: Scherzer, Shields, Buch, Kelly & de la Rosa (Webster/Ranaudo/Workman)

     

     

     

    That's a contender.

     

    That is something to feel excited about!

     

     

     

    Sox4ever



    Just say no to Tulo.

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from dannycater. Show dannycater's posts

    Re: This Months Deals: An Overview

    He won't be gone if he is bombing shots over the Monster, the fans love him and he's producing...don't dismiss this guy.

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from crazy-world-of-troybrown. Show crazy-world-of-troybrown's posts

    Re: This Months Deals: An Overview

    Tulo should be one of the priorities this Off-Season.

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from 67redsox. Show 67redsox's posts

    Re: This Months Deals: An Overview

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    AJP for nothing:

     

    Not much to say, except "addition by subtraction" and give the kids a chance to play.

     

    ________________________________________________

     

    Peavy for Edwin Escobar & Heath Hembree: Excellent deal.

     

    Hembree was 6th best Giants' prospect last year and Escobar was the 10th best. Here are some write-ups from MLB.com:

     

    Hembree: He had a huge 2011 season that put him firmly on the "future closers" map and despite the hiccup in Fresno, he still should be there. He'll throw his power sinking fastball up to 97 mph and back it up with a hard slider that has cutter-like action. He'll mix in an occasional changeup for a different look, though it's not really an effective part of his arsenal.

     

    Escobar: This solid and stocky southpaw had spent a little time in full-season ball in 2011, then hit it full-time in 2012, finishing fourth in the organization in ERA and third in WHIP. He'll run his fastball up to 94 mph with quick arm action, though he does throw across his body. He can sink and cut his fastball and throws an effective sinking changeup. His wide three-quarters curve has the chance to be an average pitch and shows occasional sharp bite. He understands how to mix his pitches well for a young hurler, which should bode well as he moves up the ladder.

     

    _________________________________________________________

     

    Doubront for PTBNL (after Rule 5 deadline): Unknown.

     

    The fact that we get a player after the rule 5 deadline should help us with a roster crunch.

     

    ___________________________________________________

     

    Lester, Gomes & Cash for Yoenis Cespedes and a draft pick: Looks bad on the surface. Cespedes can become a free agent after 2015 with no chance for a comp pick. I expected more. I expected longer term players.

     

    Cespedes turns 29 this October. His .318 career OBP is not good, and it's been under .303 for the last 2 years. His .470 SLG% is decent. He's on pace for hitting over 23 Hrs for 3 straight years. I get the argument that Nava is better vs RHPs and Gomes is better vs LHPs, but Cespedes takes up just one roster spot and has the potential to do better than those two as a platoon. He's also a better fielder than both.

     

    Competitive Balance Draft Pick: Nice to have, but I expected more.

     

    ______________________________________________________________

     

    Lackey, Litrell, and Cash for Allen Craig and Joe Kelly: Good deal. I was one who believed Lackey would play for just $500K next year, but I'm glad I don't need to find out. Litrell was not likely to be a high impact ML player.

     

    Allen Craig: He just turned 30 and is under team control through 2018. His luxury tax salary counts as only $6.2M. His career UZR/150 numbers show he is about an average OF'er and 1Bman. His career .803 OPS is very good (.343 OBP/.460 SLG), but it has fallen steadily since 2011: .917>.876>.830>.638.

     

    Joe Kelly just turned 26 and has not even reached arb yet. He has 3 arb years beginning in 2016. He has a 3.25 ERA in over 266 IP since coming up to the bigs in 2012. His 4.37 ERA this year in just 35 IP should not be held aginst him. This guy has very good upside potential. It's the type of player I hoped we'd be picking up at the deadline.

     

    _____________________________________________________________

     

    Miller for Eduardo Rodriguez: Hard to tell how this trade will work out, but getting nothing for Miller after this year seems worse than any prospect gained, and Rodrigues was rated highly before the season began.

     

    Eduardo Rodriguez: He is 21 and has struggled since being called up to AA last year, but he was rated the 85th best prospect in MLB in 2013. Here is what MLB.com had to say about him:

     

    It's amazing what growth and maturity can do for a young player. Rodriguez looked like a finesse lefty when he started out his pro career. The Venezuelan's stuff was much better during his 2012 full-season debut, with a tailing fastball that should be above-average. His breaking ball is still a bit inconsistent, but it shows occasional sharp bite and his changeup has improved some as well. He's lean and lanky with some deception to his delivery. He generally throws strikes and if he can keep developing on this path, he has a future as a big league starter.

     

    _______________________________________________________________

     

    Drew for Kelly Johnson: this deal makes zero sense to me, except that it saves us money. Both are FAs after this year, so we basically got nothing for Drew, except some salary relief.

     

    _______________________________________________________________

     

    Overall, we picked up:

     

    Yoenis Cespedes, Allen Craig, Joe Kelly, Heath Hembree, Edwin Escobar, Eduardo Rodriguez, a PTBNL (from the Cubs), and a 2015 Comp Pick from the A's.

     

    We gave up nobody under team control beyond this year, except 1 year of Lackey, 3 arb years of Doubront, and several years of control for Litrell.

     

    I seriously doubt we sign any of these players we traded this winter, but we can sign players like Max Scherzer, Jamie Shields, Nelson Cruz, Pablo Sandoval, Hanley Ramirez, Michael Cuddyer or others. We also have a huge stockpile of prospects, some of which can be packaged for 1 or 2 high impact players.

     

    That remains to be seen, but certainly our long term future looks brighter after these trades, if we assume none of these guys (excepta Lackey, Doubront & Litrell) were coming back next year had they not been traded. To me, arguing the merits of not extending Lester, Miller or others is a separate debate, although I can certainly understand those who feel like this cannot be separated from today's actions.

     

    Finally, some here doubted so many deals could be orchestrated in such a short time. I'm sure Ben & Co. have been run ragged by the today, but we basically did what needed to be done, and set ourselves up for some blockbuster signings and deals this upcoming winter.

     

    I'll update the luxury budget outlook and 40 man roster issues over the next few days.

     

    I welcome your opinions and comments.

     

    Sox4ever




    Thanks moon for your detailed analysis.  After reading this I feel much better about the trades.  I think the sox needed to make some big changes to this team. It will be exciting to see how the team grows and changes in the next few years.

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: This Months Deals: An Overview

    In response to dannycater's comment:

    He won't be gone if he is bombing shots over the Monster, the fans love him and he's producing...don't dismiss this guy.




    If he has a great year, he will want a contract of 5+ years. We know what happens when that is demanded.

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from SonicsMonksLyresVicars. Show SonicsMonksLyresVicars's posts

    Re: This Months Deals: An Overview

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    AJP for nothing:

     

    Not much to say, except "addition by subtraction" and give the kids a chance to play.

     

    ________________________________________________

     

    Peavy for Edwin Escobar & Heath Hembree: Excellent deal.

     

    Hembree was 6th best Giants' prospect last year and Escobar was the 10th best. Here are some write-ups from MLB.com:

     

    Hembree: He had a huge 2011 season that put him firmly on the "future closers" map and despite the hiccup in Fresno, he still should be there. He'll throw his power sinking fastball up to 97 mph and back it up with a hard slider that has cutter-like action. He'll mix in an occasional changeup for a different look, though it's not really an effective part of his arsenal.

     

    Escobar: This solid and stocky southpaw had spent a little time in full-season ball in 2011, then hit it full-time in 2012, finishing fourth in the organization in ERA and third in WHIP. He'll run his fastball up to 94 mph with quick arm action, though he does throw across his body. He can sink and cut his fastball and throws an effective sinking changeup. His wide three-quarters curve has the chance to be an average pitch and shows occasional sharp bite. He understands how to mix his pitches well for a young hurler, which should bode well as he moves up the ladder.

     

    _________________________________________________________

     

    Doubront for PTBNL (after Rule 5 deadline): Unknown.

     

    The fact that we get a player after the rule 5 deadline should help us with a roster crunch.

     

    ___________________________________________________

     

    Lester, Gomes & Cash for Yoenis Cespedes and a draft pick: Looks bad on the surface. Cespedes can become a free agent after 2015 with no chance for a comp pick. I expected more. I expected longer term players.

     

    Cespedes turns 29 this October. His .318 career OBP is not good, and it's been under .303 for the last 2 years. His .470 SLG% is decent. He's on pace for hitting over 23 Hrs for 3 straight years. I get the argument that Nava is better vs RHPs and Gomes is better vs LHPs, but Cespedes takes up just one roster spot and has the potential to do better than those two as a platoon. He's also a better fielder than both.

     

    Competitive Balance Draft Pick: Nice to have, but I expected more.

     

    ______________________________________________________________

     

    Lackey, Litrell, and Cash for Allen Craig and Joe Kelly: Good deal. I was one who believed Lackey would play for just $500K next year, but I'm glad I don't need to find out. Litrell was not likely to be a high impact ML player.

     

    Allen Craig: He just turned 30 and is under team control through 2018. His luxury tax salary counts as only $6.2M. His career UZR/150 numbers show he is about an average OF'er and 1Bman. His career .803 OPS is very good (.343 OBP/.460 SLG), but it has fallen steadily since 2011: .917>.876>.830>.638.

     

    Joe Kelly just turned 26 and has not even reached arb yet. He has 3 arb years beginning in 2016. He has a 3.25 ERA in over 266 IP since coming up to the bigs in 2012. His 4.37 ERA this year in just 35 IP should not be held aginst him. This guy has very good upside potential. It's the type of player I hoped we'd be picking up at the deadline.

     

    _____________________________________________________________

     

    Miller for Eduardo Rodriguez: Hard to tell how this trade will work out, but getting nothing for Miller after this year seems worse than any prospect gained, and Rodrigues was rated highly before the season began.

     

    Eduardo Rodriguez: He is 21 and has struggled since being called up to AA last year, but he was rated the 85th best prospect in MLB in 2013. Here is what MLB.com had to say about him:

     

    It's amazing what growth and maturity can do for a young player. Rodriguez looked like a finesse lefty when he started out his pro career. The Venezuelan's stuff was much better during his 2012 full-season debut, with a tailing fastball that should be above-average. His breaking ball is still a bit inconsistent, but it shows occasional sharp bite and his changeup has improved some as well. He's lean and lanky with some deception to his delivery. He generally throws strikes and if he can keep developing on this path, he has a future as a big league starter.

     

    _______________________________________________________________

     

    Drew for Kelly Johnson: this deal makes zero sense to me, except that it saves us money. Both are FAs after this year, so we basically got nothing for Drew, except some salary relief.

     

    _______________________________________________________________

     

    Overall, we picked up:

     

    Yoenis Cespedes, Allen Craig, Joe Kelly, Heath Hembree, Edwin Escobar, Eduardo Rodriguez, a PTBNL (from the Cubs), and a 2015 Comp Pick from the A's.

     

    We gave up nobody under team control beyond this year, except 1 year of Lackey, 3 arb years of Doubront, and several years of control for Litrell.

     

    I seriously doubt we sign any of these players we traded this winter, but we can sign players like Max Scherzer, Jamie Shields, Nelson Cruz, Pablo Sandoval, Hanley Ramirez, Michael Cuddyer or others. We also have a huge stockpile of prospects, some of which can be packaged for 1 or 2 high impact players.

     

    That remains to be seen, but certainly our long term future looks brighter after these trades, if we assume none of these guys (excepta Lackey, Doubront & Litrell) were coming back next year had they not been traded. To me, arguing the merits of not extending Lester, Miller or others is a separate debate, although I can certainly understand those who feel like this cannot be separated from today's actions.

     

    Finally, some here doubted so many deals could be orchestrated in such a short time. I'm sure Ben & Co. have been run ragged by the today, but we basically did what needed to be done, and set ourselves up for some blockbuster signings and deals this upcoming winter.

     

    I'll update the luxury budget outlook and 40 man roster issues over the next few days.

     

    I welcome your opinions and comments.

     

    Sox4ever




    It's probably been pointed out, but we also gave up the pick we would have received had we QO'd Lester.

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: This Months Deals: An Overview

    It's probably been pointed out, but we also gave up the pick we would have received had we QO'd Lester.

    Yeah, we pretty much broke even by getting the A's comp pick next year, so the deal was really 2 months of Lester for 2 months + 1 year of Cespedes.

    Sox4ever

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from BogieAt12oclock. Show BogieAt12oclock's posts

    Re: This Months Deals: An Overview

    In response to BosoxJoe5's comment:

    In response to Beantowne's comment:

    Moon,

     

    Solid breakdown.

     

    End of the day the Sox are retooling their roster with an eye on 2016 and beyond. Hard to imagine it's come to this but fact of the matter is that while our system continues to produce quantity the lack of impact players coming up through the system is what has led to the current plight. Many can and will quibble over the cause and try to affix blame on Henry, Luccino & Werner for not opening their wallets and for the many curious roster decisions under their leadership by both the Epstein and Cherington regimes. Fact is 3 WS tittles in a decade after 86 years of wait til next year makes it hard to argue with the results...We shall in the coming years see if they have the ability to rebuild the nucleus, rise from the ashes to hoist another. My intuition suggest we may be in for a couple of lean years... 



    Cespedes is a move for 2015. Since he gone afterwards.



    Maybe it would be more realistic if Cespedes was given a chance to play some games in Boston before someone says he'll be gone after 2015.

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from SinceYaz. Show SinceYaz's posts

    Re: This Months Deals: An Overview

    In response to moonslav59's comment:


    Outstanding work, Moon! I thoroughly enjoyed it and was thankful you took the time - and used your intellect, as usual - to parlay a solid collection of thoughts and comments so it wasn't just wild-eyed, half-witted calls against FHenry, the FO and Farrell.


     


    Thanks.


     


     


     


    It helped to turn this day of feeling the desperate loss of Lester, which I feared anyway, into an exciting morning filled with possibilities, even close at hand ones.


     


    Every decision made should not be viewed in a bubble. Most involve either or situations. For example, had we signed Lester to a $130M/5 deal, it would be about 1/7th of our player payroll budget. The signing would certainly mean we would not be able to spend big money to fill other (multiple) needs. Getting something for Lester (and others) helps in some ways and hurts in others (assuming we could have extended him). We now have Cespedes, a comp pick AND $25+M more to spend each and every year for 5+ years. Surely, that is not as bleak looking as just seeing a last place team now without Lester.


    It is possible that the FO has thought this through at least as fully as we have.   Just maybe.  I had an emotional moment this morning when the RE2PECT commercial for Jeter started with Lester tipping his hat.  The wife says, "I haven't heard you talk about Lester before..."  Leaving the thought open.  I replied I rarely talk about the pitchers, she knows of my Yaz days, the Pedey favoritism especially since he was Dad's favorite, and Papi.... but I told her that I rarely talk of pitchers but we lost a dandy with Lester.


     


    But we DID get something significant in return.  I know there have been many calls both here and in the Boston media not to think too highly of Cespedes as a return.  But we did get a power hitting All Star with a great arm.  Haven't we all been thrilled in this hurtful season with JBJs cannon?  Imagine now, two of our guys will be daring runners to throw.  Fewer first to thirds.   Fewer 2nd to homes.  That will help the pitchers and we will be sitting on the edge of our seats waiting for those who take the dare....  


     


    We got some very good young players, some hopeful vets and a comp pick & PTBNL. We already had an excellent farm and young player core, so now we are even better in that area. My hope is that we choose wisely and deal 4-5 of our better prospects for one impact SP'er (who? I don't know) or positional player (Stanton or Tulo come to mind). Sign 2-4 free agents with the $65M we have, and we could be highly competitive in 2015 while still having a top 6 farm system.


    This position is so much stronger to be in than many years.   We CAN trade prospects, because we have valuable ones.  I like the chip watch now, because there is so much more to look forward to.  


    Again, the FO might be aware of more than we are.  We got some of these fine prospects from the deal of of a century that sent $262 million in contracts to LAD.  I could not have fathomed such a deal, could you?  And yet, they pulled it off and we signed lesser players that fit like a glove and were HUNGRY and BOOM a WSC.  (Boom may not be a good choice of a word, considering the Boston Marathon thin... apologies to any who may take offense, it was not related.)


    Growing up,  and again some apologies for the elephant's memory there, the great prospects were always in Rochester, NY {then a Ballymore AAA affiliate}, and in the recent memory of the last 20 years {Jeter's career frame and a little more}, the MFY had prospects out the yazoo ... Rings AND propsects, that was MADDENING!  Now?  Man it is fun thinking of all the possibilities!!


    Let's say, for arguments sake, we trade Betts, Owens, Marrero, Barnes & Bell for Tulo, then sign Scherzer, Shields, Uehara and a decent back-up catcher, we'd have this to watch next season:


    Brother, dream on!!!!  I mean it,  not in the negative sense, but this isn't like trading a box of rocks for someone, it's got possibilities because we have them!  


    I couldn't help but look at the lineup even last night, WITHOUT Yeonis yet, and think ... wow, all of a sudden, it has length, it has pop.   Imagine when Yeonis steps in.  BTW, did you notice PAPI WAS NEVER MORE THAN 18 inches away from Yeonis in the dugout ... hehehehehe


    1) Victorino CF (JBJ)


     


    2) Pedroia 2B


     


    3) Tulo SS


     


    4) Ortiz DH


     


    5) Cespedes RF


     


    6) Napoli 1B


     


    7) Craig LF


     


    8) Bogey/Holt 3B


     


    9) Vazquez C


     


    If we trade Vic, Cespedes, Craig or Napoli, we'd have room for JBJ, Holt or Bogey to play FT.


     


    Our rotation would be: Scherzer, Shields, Buch, Kelly & de la Rosa (Webster/Ranaudo/Workman)


     


     


     


    That's a contender.


     


    That is something to feel excited about!


     


     Amen!


     


    Sox4ever





    [object HTMLDivElement]


     


    Post has been edited so as to easily separate the responses ... 

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: This Months Deals: An Overview

    Thanks, Yaz: solid post.

    I know some of my scenarios I throw out there look like Fantasy baseball ideas, but you are right, we now have the pieces and budget flexibility to make something like this happen this winter!

    I'm excited about the possibilities.

    Sox4ever

     
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