Tigers v. Red Sox 2013 ALCS

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  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from maxbialystock. Show maxbialystock's posts

    Re: Tigers v. Red Sox 2013 ALCS


    Sorry,gang, but overall I like the OP.  Sure, he's opinionated, but this time he has some interesting numbers.  I mostly agree with his assessments of the lineup and of the two pitching staffs, including that the Tigers Verlander and Scherzer are probably better than Lester or whoever on the Sox.    He says the Tigers first 3 starters are better, and I doubt that.  Yes, he hammers Drew unfairly, but what the heck.  He says Cabrera could be a key, and that's obviously true. 

    I think he makes a terrific point about Ortiz and Napoli.  Napoli runs hot and cold, and can get very cold, and there is a real possibility walking Ortiz consistently to go after Napoli could work.  The so-called fatal flaw.

     Farrell would never do it, but one way to fix that problem is to move Ortiz up in the lineup to take advantage of what is likely to be a high OBP.  If Ortiz bats 3d, Pedroia or Victorino could bat 4th, and I would probably go with Pedroia who has hit well in the slot before.  And I just make move Nava up to bat 5th after Pedroia.  Then Napoli, Salty, Drew, and MBR.  That would be L, R, L, R, L, R, L, L, R. 

    He could be right that Fenway won't intimidate the Tigers, but ignores that the Tigers rotation will be a little out of whack.  Verlander can't pitch until game 3.  That tells me the Sox need to win this thing before game 7. 

     
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    Re: Tigers v. Red Sox 2013 ALCS

    Didn't Fister start the game in which the Sox scored like 3,000 runs, this year? Pretty sure.

     
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    Re: Tigers v. Red Sox 2013 ALCS

    Sorry it was Porcello, guess we wont see him.

     
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    Re: Tigers v. Red Sox 2013 ALCS



    Base running and stolen bases will decide this series. We have a HUGE advantage in that dept. The Tigers are also deficient in fielding bunts towards 3rd or 1st. Home runs don't always win games. A conservative Farrell and we lose. An aggressive Farrell and we win.

     
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    Re: Tigers v. Red Sox 2013 ALCS

    In response to RedSoxFireman's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    This series will be about Game 2, not game 1. If the Red Sox blow Game 1, they are toast.

    [/QUOTE]

    I agree that game 1 is critical.

     
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    Re: Tigers v. Red Sox 2013 ALCS

    In response to crazyworldoftroybrown's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Didn't Fister start the game in which the Sox scored like 3,000 runs, this year? Pretty sure.

    [/QUOTE]

    They did pound Fister in an earlier game in Detroit.

     

     

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from tomnev. Show tomnev's posts

    Re: Tigers v. Red Sox 2013 ALCS

    I think this series is pretty easy to analyze what the Sox need to do.....and the A's helped us by Verlander having to pitch 8 inningss in Game 5.....I know Scherzer had the big year...but Verlander is the guy we need to fear.....Since Verlander will go in Game 3....his next game would be Game 6 On 3 days rest(probably only if the Tigers are facing elimination) or Game 7 on Normal Rest....in my mind that means we need to win 3 of those 1st 5 games....and either beat Verlander in Game 6...or take Game 7 at home versus Scherzer.....do not have to face a rested Verlander in Game 7!! That makes a few games Key.....Game 1 with Lester is a must and Game 4 in Detroit vs Fister or Porcello.....that give you the Flexibilty to lose the Verlander Games and still win the series....especially since we have our Huge Homefield advantage.....I will say this.....if we win the 1st 2 at home...it will be hard to beat us and with a relaxed team going in Game 3 versus Verlander and a Tiger team under alot of pressure versus my bet will be John Lackey who is 4-1 with a 3.83 ERA in 6 games at Comerica......it would be a great scenario. For all the talk about Miggy and Prince....I worry about Victor M....he has always hit well against us and loves to hit at Fenway....Miggy is Miggy and if completely healthy, basically unstoppable....but right now despite the Game 5 homer, he is pitchable.

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from GoUconn13. Show GoUconn13's posts

    Re: Tigers v. Red Sox 2013 ALCS

    Why few people are looking at stats for the regular season and think they are a factor for the series?

    Was miggy the best offense player in MLB this year?  and how did he do in the post season against the A's?

     

     
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    Re: Tigers v. Red Sox 2013 ALCS

    In response to RedSoxFireman's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    This series will be about Game 2, not game 1. If the Red Sox blow Game 1, they are toast.

    [/QUOTE]

    And if they lose game 2 then win 4 out of the other 6 games the Tigers are toast.

    You can break down this game vs. that game and weigh it into how everything changes from game to game but at the end of the day the most important game is the next game. 

     
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    Re: Tigers v. Red Sox 2013 ALCS

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to RedSoxFireman's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    This series will be about Game 2, not game 1. If the Red Sox blow Game 1, they are toast.

    [/QUOTE]

    And if they lose game 2 then win 4 out of the other 6 games the Tigers are toast.

    You can break down this game vs. that game and weigh it into how everything changes from game to game but at the end of the day the most important game is the next game. 

    [/QUOTE]


    Exactly.  Everybody said that game 2 was our 'throw away' game in the last series because Price was pitching.......  you never know what's going to happen.  If we lose game 1 in a 7 game series....I'm not packing up my Sox gear.

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from maxbialystock. Show maxbialystock's posts

    Re: Tigers v. Red Sox 2013 ALCS


    Back to the OP and redsoxfireman.  I really like the concept of watching three specific things in the first two games.  He will watch how Cabrera and Middlebrooks swing the bat, as well as how Leyland let's his guys pitch to Ortiz.  Great approach. 

    However, I honestly don't think Middlebrooks is ready to blossom yet, for these reasons--

    1.  He had a great August, OPS .880, when he returned, but faded slightly in September, OPS .746, and faded further in the ALDS, OPS .683, against the Rays who used a lot of lefties. 

    2.  The Tigers starters are righties, and Middlebrooks is better against lefties.  On top of which, the Tigers have good righties. 

    3.  Farrell is not afraid to move MBR up in the lineup because he has done it a few times.  But right now he is near the bottom for a reason.

     
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    Re: Tigers v. Red Sox 2013 ALCS

    whoever loses 4 games first is toast.

    perfect world sox go up 3-0 so we can hear all about the only team to ever come back down 3-0 in an ALCS........

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from tomnev. Show tomnev's posts

    Re: Tigers v. Red Sox 2013 ALCS

    In response to maxbialystock's comment:
    [QUOTE]


    Back to the OP and redsoxfireman.  I really like the concept of watching three specific things in the first two games.  He will watch how Cabrera and Middlebrooks swing the bat, as well as how Leyland let's his guys pitch to Ortiz.  Great approach. 

    However, I honestly don't think Middlebrooks is ready to blossom yet, for these reasons--

    1.  He had a great August, OPS .880, when he returned, but faded slightly in September, OPS .746, and faded further in the ALDS, OPS .683, against the Rays who used a lot of lefties. 

    2.  The Tigers starters are righties, and Middlebrooks is better against lefties.  On top of which, the Tigers have good righties. 

    3.  Farrell is not afraid to move MBR up in the lineup because he has done it a few times.  But right now he is near the bottom for a reason.

    [/QUOTE]


    Good points Max....as opposed to the Rays, we need our Lefties to have a big series aginst the Tigers.....Papi is a given, Drew has been very good vs Righties....Nava is playing evryday in this series....and as someone noted...I think we will see Carp playing some 1st base....and then there is Salty....I am looking for him to come up big in this series.

     
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  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from tomnev. Show tomnev's posts

    Re: Tigers v. Red Sox 2013 ALCS

    In response to RedSoxFireman's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Sorry,gang, but overall I like the OP.  Sure, he's opinionated, but this time he has some interesting numbers.  I mostly agree with his assessments of the lineup and of the two pitching staffs, including that the Tigers Verlander and Scherzer are probably better than Lester or whoever on the Sox.    He says the Tigers first 3 starters are better, and I doubt that.  Yes, he hammers Drew unfairly, but what the heck.  He says Cabrera could be a key, and that's obviously true. 

    Scherzer 2013 ERA 2.90  WHIP .970        2013 ERA v Sox 2.57

    Lester    2013 ERA 3.75  WHIP 1.294       2013 ERA v Tigers 4.26

    Advantage Max Scherzer 

    Verlander 2013 ERA 3.46  WHIP 1.315        2013 ERA v Sox 7.20 in 1 appearance 2012 ERA 3.79 in 3 starts

    Bucholz  2013 ERA 1.74  WHIP 1.025         2013 ERA v Tigers N/A has not faced Tigers in 2013 2012 ERA                                          6.75 in 2 starts

    Advantage Justin Verlander

    Doug Fister 2013 ERA 3.67  WHIP 1.308        2013 ERA v Sox 5.23 in 2 appearance ERA  of zero in 1 2013 start in Fenway Park

    John Lackey  2013 ERA 3.52  WHIP 1.157     2013 ERA v Tigers 3.14 in 2 appearances

    Advantage John Lackey

     

    I think he makes a terrific point about Ortiz and Napoli.  Napoli runs hot and cold, and can get very cold, and there is a real possibility walking Ortiz consistently to go after Napoli could work.  The so-called fatal flaw.

     Farrell would never do it, but one way to fix that problem is to move Ortiz up in the lineup to take advantage of what is likely to be a high OBP.  If Ortiz bats 3d, Pedroia or Victorino could bat 4th, and I would probably go with Pedroia who has hit well in the slot before.  And I just make move Nava up to bat 5th after Pedroia.  Then Napoli, Salty, Drew, and MBR.  That would be L, R, L, R, L, R, L, L, R. 

    Pedroia has a .576 OPS vs. Tigers in 2013   (Nope)

    Victorino has a .913 OPS vs. Tigers in 2013  (Yep)

    (Victorino hitting 4th is the correct response, but I doubt Red Sox management is smart enough to make that adjustment under the "set in ways with what worked during regular season 162 games season and a bad baseball team in the ALDS. Victorino isn't likely to rise to the occassion in a role like that, but that's the only response the Red Sox have on the table unless Middlebrooks finds his 2012 form early in the series)

     

    He could be right that Fenway won't intimidate the Tigers, but ignores that the Tigers rotation will be a little out of whack.  Verlander can't pitch until game 3.  That tells me the Sox need to win this thing before game 7. 


    (Incorrect. Scherzer is the best Tigers' starter option in this series, and he'll be pitching the most important game in Boston, Game 2, fully rested. Scherzer and Verlander could be lined up and fully rested for Game 6 and Game 7, and I seriously doubt the Red Sox can finish the Tigers off in 5 games. "Not lined up" is merely speculation based on the false assumption that Game 1 is piviotal. It's not pivotal for the Tigers, but it is pivotal for the Red Sox. Tigers will be media and fan viewed as big underdog, which an objective analysis shows is quite false. If Miggy is able to produce at 75% of his healthy self, it will be the Tigers who win this series.)

    VMart and Iglesias both have pride based debts to levy on Red Sox fans and management. VMart is an elite overall hitter, by virtue of his OPS from both sides of the plate. While not a slugger with pop, he has gap power to go with his exceptional hitting talents. He took time to adjust to the missed year with injury, but he's back to his old self again, dangerous hitter to any opponent of the Tigers. Iglesias is in the final year of the rookie doghouse, but he knows how to make contact and knows the strike zone better and better to go with the best SS fielding and glove work in decades. He will be a force if Red Sox hitters are behind a run or two in the late innings of any game. Anything not rocketed way over him or way away from him will be a virtual automatic out for even Ellsbury or Shane.

    Be Prepared for S. Drew to make a few bobble handed plays that will require the joke that is MLB scoring on errors and hits to rule he's had another "errorless chances game". Bogaerts already has more poise than Drew and should be in their on defense in late innings crunch time. Unless Drew slugs Sanchez in Game 1, Bogaerts should replace him as the starter for the rest of the series, with Drew being the late innings pinch hitter vs. some Lefties bench option.    

    [/QUOTE]


    "with Drew being the late innings pinch hitter vs. some Lefties bench option."


    You want people to take your analysis seriously and you make the above statement?? Drew who has a .196/.246/.340/.585 vs LHP and a .284/.377.498/.876 vs RHP should be benched verus all the good Detroit RH starters and come off the bench to pinch hit versus LHP? Is this suggestion, so your prediction that Detroit will win comes through?

     
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    Re: Tigers v. Red Sox 2013 ALCS

    In response to RedSoxFireman's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Base running and stolen bases will decide this series. 

    Stolen bases will not decide this series. "Agressive" is just another way to say "small ball". Baserunning, not steals, is a factor in nearly every series. It's taught in spring training and speed is overrated when it comes to baserunning.

    [/QUOTE]


    That is another classic line.....and Power is overrated when it comes to hitting HRs.....yes you can be fats and be a lousy baserunner, just like you can be big and powerful and still not hit HR's, but speed is a huge factor in making a guy dangerous on the base paths....whether it is tealing bases, tagging up from 3rd base.....going 1st to 3rd on a single or scoring from 1st on a Double....you can be the smartest base runner in the world and not having speed is still going to kill you in those situations.

     
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  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from GoUconn13. Show GoUconn13's posts

    Re: Tigers v. Red Sox 2013 ALCS

    In response to RedSoxFireman's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    you can be the smartest base runner in the world and not having speed is still going to kill you in those situations.


    Few MLB players can be said to fall under "not having speed". Baserunning isn't a sprinting dash contest. The blunders from anxious "the fastest team" runners are memorable over the years of postseason play.

    How many times do you think the Red Sox will steal home? Zero

    How many times do you think the Red Sox will steal 3rd? Maybe once?

    Speed is the most overrated aspect of baseball skills, just as height is the most overrated aspect of baskeball skills.

    [/QUOTE]

    If you think speed is over-rated, Papi wouldnt be hitting at the 4th spot.   Or Pedroia and Victorino would not get combined of 145 RBI.   

     

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from tomnev. Show tomnev's posts

    Re: Tigers v. Red Sox 2013 ALCS

    In response to RedSoxFireman's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    you can be the smartest base runner in the world and not having speed is still going to kill you in those situations.


    Few MLB players can be said to fall under "not having speed". Baserunning isn't a sprinting dash contest. The blunders from anxious "the fastest team" runners are memorable over the years of postseason play.

    How many times do you think the Red Sox will steal home? Zero

    How many times do you think the Red Sox will steal 3rd? Maybe once?

    Speed is the most overrated aspect of baseball skills, just as height is the most overrated aspect of baskeball skills.

    [/QUOTE]


    So your response to my point is to list two other situations(stealing 3rd and stealing home) one of which is as rare as anything in baseballl and has only been done by the fastest guys in basbell history? That proves that speed is overrated? Didnt you say you were a lawyer? If so, I hope it is a trial lawyer, because you must have a lot of sufferng clients?

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from maxbialystock. Show maxbialystock's posts

    Re: Tigers v. Red Sox 2013 ALCS

    redsoxfireman, you are of course joking about v-mart, Iglesias, and Drew.  In your OP you have already said Iglesias won't play because Peralta is so much better at the plate,  so your latest claim that Iglesias can hit is meant to be humorous.  No way does v-mart or Iglesias have some kind of vendetta in mind.  They are both just happy to be in MLB and playing a great game.  The Sox FO likes both players, but went in a different direction.  V-Mart has become a DH, and Ortiz has been the Sox DH since before V-mart came to the Majors.  Being traded got Iglesias the starting SS job on a contender, so no way can he be unhappy.  Now he won't have Bogaerts lurking in the shadows ready to replace him. 

    As for Drew, he has his WAR, 3.1, 5th best among SS's in the AL,  to keep him warm and does not need your approbation.   FWIW, Peralta's WAR this year is 3d best and the Great Iglesias's is 19th best in the AL. 

    I also think you are wrong about speed because it helps both Ellsbury and Victorino track down those shots to the outfield and to get on base and advance when they are at bat.  They are a very good one-two punch at the top of the order, something no other MLB team has.  They are one reason why the Sox scored more runs than any other team in the regular season. 

     
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    Re: Tigers v. Red Sox 2013 ALCS

    go time again tomorrow!!!..trip to the show on the line....everyone have a great weekend..enjoy the games....hey Hugh..have a great time bud... 

     
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    Re: Tigers v. Red Sox 2013 ALCS

    Pete Abraham       

    Buchholz said he would start Game 2 in the ALCS.

     
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