Time is long overdue to....

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  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Time is long overdue to....

    If last night is a sign of things to come, it looks as if Ells has altered his approach, as he should have. Go the other way, dont try and over swing and pull everything. Take what they give you and just get on base. Use your speed from there.

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: Time is long overdue to....

    In response to darrylfries' comment:

     Not worried     When healty Ells has much better numbers when the weather heats up.

    Fairly large sample size.



    Here are some career splits for Jacoby Ellsbury:

    479 PA, .278/.342/.412/.754 March/April

    486 PA, .276/.346/.366/.711 May

    317 PA. .290/.337/.414/.750 June

    413 PA, .315/.359/.479/.838 July

    528 PA, .268/.317/.413/.730 August

    562 PA, .330/.376/.507/.883 September/October

     http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=ellsbja01&year=Career&t=b

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Time is long overdue to....

    In response to hill55's comment:

    In response to darrylfries' comment:

     Not worried     When healty Ells has much better numbers when the weather heats up.

     

    Fairly large sample size.



    Here are some career splits for Jacoby Ellsbury:

     

    479 PA, .278/.342/.412/.754 March/April

    486 PA, .276/.346/.366/.711 May

    317 PA. .290/.337/.414/.750 June

    413 PA, .315/.359/.479/.838 July

    528 PA, .268/.317/.413/.730 August

    562 PA, .330/.376/.507/.883 September/October

     http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=ellsbja01&year=Career&t=b




    May and august are not good to him Hill. I love the fact that hes usually been money come September.

    I dont expect much power, but I would think we can expect to see a turn around with Ellsbury in the very near future.

     
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  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from georom4. Show georom4's posts

    Re: Time is long overdue to....

    Shane when he returns...no one should be entitled to any batting order

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: Time is long overdue to....

    So Ellsbury has gotten on base 22 times in 10 games since this thread started. Laughing

     
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  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Time is long overdue to....

    It's never a bad time for you, softy.

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from Sheriff-Rojas. Show Sheriff-Rojas's posts

    Re: Time is long overdue to....

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    Anyway- love the one game sample size judgements.



    Hey Moon, sample size large enough for you yet?  

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Time is long overdue to....

    One third of a season is big enough to make some judgements, but not definitive.

    I still view the last 365 days, last 2 years, and last 3-4 years as better indicators of future performance level than any sample size between the most recent 1 game or 55 games.

    I like the trend Ellsbury is on.

    I'm thinking of starting a new thread called, "Time is long overdue for softy to stay on this site.

    Wink

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from kannaman. Show kannaman's posts

    Re: Time is long overdue to....

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    One third of a season is big enough to make some judgements, but not definitive.

    I still view the last 365 days, last 2 years, and last 3-4 years as better indicators of future performance level than any sample size between the most recent 1 game or 55 games.

    I like the trend Ellsbury is on.

    I'm thinking of starting a new thread called, "Time is long overdue for softy to stay on this site.

    Wink


    Judging by how well it worked on getting Ellsbury going that might  be a great thing.

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Time is long overdue to....

    Too bad I'm not superstitious.

    (Knock on wood)

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: Time is long overdue to....

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

    So Ellsbury has gotten on base 22 times in 10 games since this thread started. Laughing



    Does this happen everytime someone posts a short sample thread?  For the most part, these guys are what their records say they are.  You start off hot, then you'll cool off.  If you start off cool, you'll heat up.  This is virtually everyone in the lineup.  The old guy complains that Carp should be starting, the nhe goes 0-17.  JBJ comes in, gets a few walks, and he an AS, before he goes about 0-20 or so.  WMB hits three in a game, and either ADG or Geo says that was proof of why the kids needed to start, followed by about a month of hitting .100.  Geo;s thread about Tito followed a run to 1st place.  Pumpsie's thread about our demise, followed by a run to 1st place.

    Y'all need to chill.

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from ampoule. Show ampoule's posts

    Re: Time is long overdue to....

    In response to Joebreidey's comment:

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

     

    So Ellsbury has gotten on base 22 times in 10 games since this thread started. Laughing

     



    Does this happen everytime someone posts a short sample thread?  For the most part, these guys are what their records say they are.  You start off hot, then you'll cool off.  If you start off cool, you'll heat up.  This is virtually everyone in the lineup.  The old guy complains that Carp should be starting, the nhe goes 0-17.  JBJ comes in, gets a few walks, and he an AS, before he goes about 0-20 or so.  WMB hits three in a game, and either ADG or Geo says that was proof of why the kids needed to start, followed by about a month of hitting .100.  Geo;s thread about Tito followed a run to 1st place.  Pumpsie's thread about our demise, followed by a run to 1st place.

     

    Y'all need to chill.




    Good advice..

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from Sheriff-Rojas. Show Sheriff-Rojas's posts

    Re: Time is long overdue to....

    Moonslav reality check.  

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: Time is long overdue to....

    In response to Sheriff-Rojas' comment:

    Moonslav reality check.  



    SSS check.  And Moon should've known better.

    FWIW, since the thread was started, Ells' OBP is .509.  These things almost flatten out, both ways.  For reference, please see threads about-

    • Gomes
    • Napoli
    • Papi
    • Salty
    • Drew
    • WMB
    • Bradley
    • Doubront
    • The sun is setting thread
     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from lasitter. Show lasitter's posts

    Re: Time is long overdue to....

    If Moon's posting gets slumping players started I'm ready for more!

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from devildavid. Show devildavid's posts

    Re: Time is long overdue to....

    Good to see that Ellsbury is back on track. Too many Sox are having trouble hitting lefties but Ells has come around there too.





    "Ignorance is preferable to error, and he is less remote from the truth who believes nothing than he who believes what is wrong."
    - Thomas Jefferson

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from Sheriff-Rojas. Show Sheriff-Rojas's posts

    Re: Time is long overdue to....

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    ...pull Ellsbury from the leadoff slot.

    In my opinion, he should bat 9th vs RHPs and sit vs LHPs, but at least get the guy out of the #1 spot.

    PLEASE!

    Next thing ya know, Moonie will be suggesting that they trade Ellsbury.  Hey, wait a minute...

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from royf19. Show royf19's posts

    Re: Time is long overdue to....

    Managing players is an art, not science. 

    Which means, there are many things at play. Big sample-sizes (career averages, for example) can also be meaningless in any given year, both for good and bad.

    For instance, Ortiz. A couple of years ago, he struggled against left-handed pitching for two years (2009 and 2010). Yet he had been good against lefties i his career. So the challenge for Tito was to figure out if Ortiz being bad against lefties was the new norm or if he'd come around.

    In 2011, after two bad years against lefties, the incliniation was to believe that Ortiz struggling against lefties was the new norm, yet he made adjustments and was lights out against lefties for two years.

    Using career norms for players coming up is useless because they're still in the learning process where they can improve on weaknesses. So just because they might be struggling in a certain area one year, it doesn't mean that's who they are.

    The challenge for managers is to balance long term norms with short term performance. It does reach a point when what a player is doing now is who they are now (both good or bad) and not what they've been (or will be). In other words, a player who has been mediocre in his career but is red hot, might in the end be having a career year and stay hot all year. Or the reverse -- a player who has been great and is struggling could end up having an off year and struggle all year.

     

     

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from Sheriff-Rojas. Show Sheriff-Rojas's posts

    Re: Time is long overdue to....

    In response to royf19's comment:

     

    Managing players is an art, not science. 

    Which means, there are many things at play. Big sample-sizes (career averages, for example) can also be meaningless in any given year, both for good and bad.

    For instance, Ortiz. A couple of years ago, he struggled against left-handed pitching for two years (2009 and 2010). Yet he had been good against lefties i his career. So the challenge for Tito was to figure out if Ortiz being bad against lefties was the new norm or if he'd come around.

    In 2011, after two bad years against lefties, the incliniation was to believe that Ortiz struggling against lefties was the new norm, yet he made adjustments and was lights out against lefties for two years.

    Using career norms for players coming up is useless because they're still in the learning process where they can improve on weaknesses. So just because they might be struggling in a certain area one year, it doesn't mean that's who they are.

    The challenge for managers is to balance long term norms with short term performance. It does reach a point when what a player is doing now is who they are now (both good or bad) and not what they've been (or will be). In other words, a player who has been mediocre in his career but is red hot, might in the end be having a career year and stay hot all year. Or the reverse -- a player who has been great and is struggling could end up having an off year and struggle all year.

     

     

     



    Good points, Roy.  Stats are useful for analysis, but they are not determinants of future performance.  Player performance is much more dynamic.

     

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from Sheriff-Rojas. Show Sheriff-Rojas's posts

    Re: Time is long overdue to....

    I want to see written in Moonslav's blood, "I was waaaaaaaaaaaaay wrong about this one! (red highlighting will do)

    I already know that Softlaw is unable to go there.  Show you're a better man.  No equivocation!

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Time is long overdue to....

    I've admitted I was wrong more than every poster on this site combined. (That's not an admission that I have been wrong more than others.)

    I was certainly wrong about benching Ellsbury vs LHPs and batting him 9th vs righties. He caught on fire almost the second I posted this thread. I'm wondering if I should start posting similar threads about all our struggling players.

    BTW, the sample size is still small, but there aren't many better options at leadoff right now.

    His recent SBs have helped lead to runs. That must be killing softy... 

     

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from rsinsider. Show rsinsider's posts

    Re: Time is long overdue to....

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    I've admitted I was wrong more than every poster on this site combined. (That's not an admission that I have been wrong more than others.)

    I was certainly wrong about benching Ellsbury vs LHPs and batting him 9th vs righties. He caught on fire almost the second I posted this thread. I'm wondering if I should start posting similar threads about all our struggling players.

    BTW, the sample size is still small, but there aren't many better options at leadoff right now.

    His recent SBs have helped lead to runs. That must be killing softy... 

     



    There is no way you have admitted you are wrong more than every poster combined ..... You should admitt you are wrong about that !!!!!!!!!!!

     
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