TIME TO BENCH, DL OR MOVE ELLS TO LEFT: HOW ARE WE EVER GOING TO AFFORD THIS GUY NOW?

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from COMMUNIST-CONTRARIAN. Show COMMUNIST-CONTRARIAN's posts

    TIME TO BENCH, DL OR MOVE ELLS TO LEFT: HOW ARE WE EVER GOING TO AFFORD THIS GUY NOW?

    WHOEVER the highest paid center fielder is, just move on out for thats the starting point for any extension. see ya pap or papi, we have to make some room for ells now! bak to bak walkoffs in grand style. if he goes off vs the yanks, back up the brinks truck!
     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from attic-dan. Show attic-dan's posts

    Re: TIME TO BENCH, DL OR MOVE ELLS TO LEFT: HOW ARE WE EVER GOING TO AFFORD THIS GUY NOW?

       Boras will take ellsbury to arbitration then FA so Sox have plenty of time to prune pay roll. This is just a thought but maybe Jacoby is having his career year, and will put up good but not great numbers in following years, which would diminish his earning power.
     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from kimsaysthis. Show kimsaysthis's posts

    Re: TIME TO BENCH, DL OR MOVE ELLS TO LEFT: HOW ARE WE EVER GOING TO AFFORD THIS GUY NOW?

    Should have included "I hope not". :)

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: TIME TO BENCH, DL OR MOVE ELLS TO LEFT: HOW ARE WE EVER GOING TO AFFORD THIS GUY NOW?

    The way to get Ells to bite is to front end the offer. He has not made much so far and wont make that much next year either (for his numbers). Throw a big signing bonus at him.

    It probably wont be enough to satisfy Bora$$.
     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from softylaw. Show softylaw's posts

    Re: TIME TO BENCH, DL OR MOVE ELLS TO LEFT: HOW ARE WE EVER GOING TO AFFORD THIS GUY NOW?

    Casey Kotchman Age 28

    Kotchman 2011 BA .326 OBP .385 SLG .443 OPS .828
    Kotchman career BA .267 OBP .333 SLG .399 OPS .732

    Kotchman appears to breaking out at the plate.

    Carl Crawford Age 28 in 2010

    Crawford 2010 BA .307 OBP .356 SLG .495 OPS .851 19HR
    Crawford 2011 BA .245 OBP .280 SLG .379 OPS .659 12 Projected
    Crawford career BA .293 OBP .334 SLG .440 OPS .774 13HR

    Ellsbury Age 28 in 2011

    Ellsbury 2011 BA .317 OBP .373 SLG .513 OPS .886 24 Projected
    Ellsbury 2010 BA .192 OBP .241 SLG .244 OPS .485 0 HR
    Ellsbury 2009 BA .301 OBP .355 SLG .415 OPS .770 9 HR
    Ellsbury career BA . 298 OBP .351 SLG .430 OPS .781 12 HR

    Is Crawford the 2010 Crawford?

    Is Kotchman the 2011 Kotchman?

    Is Ellsbury the 2011 Ellsbury?

    Do you offer Ellsbury 130M over 7 years, and pay for the 2011 Ellsbury?

    Do you winter trade Ellsbury's 2 years and 6 to 8M a year?

    Note: Ellsbury 2011 v. LHP BA .246 OBP .319 SLG .405 OPS .724

    Do you go long term with this OF:

    Ellsbury
    Crawford
    Reddick/Kalish/Aviles

    Note: Local Red Sox Fan and media MVP candidate is 9th in AL OPS and way behind OF'ers Bautista and Granderson, with Granderson also sporting 20 steals 84 RBI's, 98 runs and 28 homers. Ellsbury is also trailing Pedroia, who has 22 steals, AGon and Ortiz in OPS.

    Who is the team MVP?

    Agon, Pedroia, Ortiz, Beckett or Ellsbury?

    Theo is mortgaged down on Crawford, whose career numbers say he won't repeat 2011 in 2012. I see no chance Theo extends Ellsbury or signs him as a FA because he has to look at the career averages if he wants to avoid a Crawbust decision. I don't think ownership would authorize a budget for Ellsbury and Crawford.

    But let's forget the fact that Theo's not going to extend or sign Ellsbury as a FA. Do you want Theo to:

    1. extend or sign Ellsbury as a FA?

    2. If so, how much and how many years do you offer?

    3. If not, do you trade Ellsbury's 2 years of control, over the winter, or hope he is the 2011 Ellsbury for 2012 and 2013 and pay the likely arbitration award amount of 12 to 14M and hope to get a draft pick or two?

    4. If you want Ellsbury retained, who is your 3rd OF'er for 2012? Who is your 4th OF'er for 2012?
     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from the___yazzer. Show the___yazzer's posts

    Re: TIME TO BENCH, DL OR MOVE ELLS TO LEFT: HOW ARE WE EVER GOING TO AFFORD THIS GUY NOW?

    the signing of crawford by inepstein is a two-fold major mistake.
    1st and foremost, he isn't worth anything near that kind of money, and secondly, now bora$$ has jd crawford's salary to use as a benchmark when it's time to negotiate ell's salary.

    i've said it before and i'll say it forever, the jd crawford deal will go down as one of the worst in baseball history, and if ells is not re-signed, the blame lands squarely on theo blunder's shoulders.


    please fire theo

    blunder!
     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from susan250. Show susan250's posts

    Re: TIME TO BENCH, DL OR MOVE ELLS TO LEFT: HOW ARE WE EVER GOING TO AFFORD THIS GUY NOW?

    In Response to Re: TIME TO BENCH, DL OR MOVE ELLS TO LEFT: HOW ARE WE EVER GOING TO AFFORD THIS GUY NOW?:
    the signing of crawford by inepstein is a two-fold major mistake. 1st and foremost, he isn't worth anything near that kind of money, and secondly, now bora$$ has jd crawford's salary to use as a benchmark when it's time to negotiate ell's salary. i've said it before and i'll say it forever, the jd crawford deal will go down as one of the worst in baseball history, and if ells is not re-signed, the blame lands squarely on theo blunder's shoulders. please fire theo blunder!
    Posted by the___yazzer


    Definitely agree with you.  It is never a good idea to overpay any player.  
     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from the___yazzer. Show the___yazzer's posts

    Re: TIME TO BENCH, DL OR MOVE ELLS TO LEFT: HOW ARE WE EVER GOING TO AFFORD THIS GUY NOW?

    In Response to Re: TIME TO BENCH, DL OR MOVE ELLS TO LEFT: HOW ARE WE EVER GOING TO AFFORD THIS GUY NOW?:
    In Response to Re: TIME TO BENCH, DL OR MOVE ELLS TO LEFT: HOW ARE WE EVER GOING TO AFFORD THIS GUY NOW? : Definitely agree with you.  It is never a good idea to overpay any player.  
    Posted by susan250


    for your own good susan, do not agree with me. you'll be disliked by most of the other posters who think BLUNDER is a god.
     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from LloydDobler. Show LloydDobler's posts

    Re: TIME TO BENCH, DL OR MOVE ELLS TO LEFT: HOW ARE WE EVER GOING TO AFFORD THIS GUY NOW?

    In Response to Re: TIME TO BENCH, DL OR MOVE ELLS TO LEFT: HOW ARE WE EVER GOING TO AFFORD THIS GUY NOW?:
    In Response to Re: TIME TO BENCH, DL OR MOVE ELLS TO LEFT: HOW ARE WE EVER GOING TO AFFORD THIS GUY NOW? : for your own good susan, do not agree with me. you'll be disliked by most of the other posters who think BLUNDER is a god.
    Posted by the___yazzer

    Few of us think he's a god, yazzer. But I'm curious ... do you give him any credit? He did get Gonzalez, Salty and Aceves during the offseason.
     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from the___yazzer. Show the___yazzer's posts

    Re: TIME TO BENCH, DL OR MOVE ELLS TO LEFT: HOW ARE WE EVER GOING TO AFFORD THIS GUY NOW?

    In Response to Re: TIME TO BENCH, DL OR MOVE ELLS TO LEFT: HOW ARE WE EVER GOING TO AFFORD THIS GUY NOW?:
    In Response to Re: TIME TO BENCH, DL OR MOVE ELLS TO LEFT: HOW ARE WE EVER GOING TO AFFORD THIS GUY NOW? : Few of us think he's a god, yazzer. But I'm curious ... do you give him any credit? He did get Gonzalez, Salty and Aceves during the offseason.
    Posted by LloydDobler



    good point, but the crawfords, slackeys, drews, lugos, etc qualify him as theo blunder.
    the guy should never ever be allowed to sign a free agent again, period.
     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from LloydDobler. Show LloydDobler's posts

    Re: TIME TO BENCH, DL OR MOVE ELLS TO LEFT: HOW ARE WE EVER GOING TO AFFORD THIS GUY NOW?

    In Response to Re: TIME TO BENCH, DL OR MOVE ELLS TO LEFT: HOW ARE WE EVER GOING TO AFFORD THIS GUY NOW?:
    In Response to Re: TIME TO BENCH, DL OR MOVE ELLS TO LEFT: HOW ARE WE EVER GOING TO AFFORD THIS GUY NOW? : good point, but the crawfords, slackeys, drews, lugos, etc qualify him as theo blunder. the guy should never ever be allowed to sign a free agent again, period.
    Posted by the___yazzer

    My point is that like all GMs, you win some and you lose some. Is it his fault Crawford has had a sub-par year? He was coming off a terrific couple of seasons in TB. I'll grant you we overpaid for him ... that's always going to be the case. I can't rip Theo for Lackey, 'cause when we signed him, I was thrilled.
    And if he should never be allowed to sign a free agent, we'd have one hell of a hole at first base and catcher. And we'd be missing our most dependable middle reliever.
     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from JimfromFlorida. Show JimfromFlorida's posts

    Re: TIME TO BENCH, DL OR MOVE ELLS TO LEFT: HOW ARE WE EVER GOING TO AFFORD THIS GUY NOW?

    The bad signings will ALWAYS out weigh the good even if the good vs bad is 10 to 1 especially in Boston.

    If they do not sign him and he is still the same guy we see now in 5 years  every single person in Boston will be after Theo for not signing him. 
    So as usual in Boston Theo is is a damned if you do and Damned if you don't. BTW if Ells is just a 290, 15 hr 40 sb guy and Reddick or Kalish fail it will stilll be a Damned if you do and damned that you didn't for Theo.

    With RS fans it is always a lose lose situation for the RS FO and manager.
     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from emp9. Show emp9's posts

    Re: TIME TO BENCH, DL OR MOVE ELLS TO LEFT: HOW ARE WE EVER GOING TO AFFORD THIS GUY NOW?

    In Response to Re: TIME TO BENCH, DL OR MOVE ELLS TO LEFT: HOW ARE WE EVER GOING TO AFFORD THIS GUY NOW?:
    In Response to Re: TIME TO BENCH, DL OR MOVE ELLS TO LEFT: HOW ARE WE EVER GOING TO AFFORD THIS GUY NOW? : My point is that like all GMs, you win some and you lose some. Is it his fault Crawford has had a sub-par year? He was coming off a terrific couple of seasons in TB. I'll grant you we overpaid for him ... that's always going to be the case. I can't rip Theo for Lackey, 'cause when we signed him, I was thrilled. And if he should never be allowed to sign a free agent, we'd have one hell of a hole at first base and catcher. And we'd be missing our most dependable middle reliever.
    Posted by LloydDobler


    Well, we'd have more of a hole at 3rd than first but...
     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from Diamondtalk. Show Diamondtalk's posts

    Re: TIME TO BENCH, DL OR MOVE ELLS TO LEFT: HOW ARE WE EVER GOING TO AFFORD THIS GUY NOW?

    Right now, Scott Boras wouldn't accept a dime less than Crawford money to get Ellsbury on a long term deal.     Ellsbury will do well in his final arbitration year this winter and when his free agency comes up after 2012, John Henry either ponies up or Ellsbury is gone.
    Boras doesn't do hometown discounts.
     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from jpBsSoxFan. Show jpBsSoxFan's posts

    Re: TIME TO BENCH, DL OR MOVE ELLS TO LEFT: HOW ARE WE EVER GOING TO AFFORD THIS GUY NOW?

    Theo will definately have his hands full dealing with Boras yet again.
     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from the___yazzer. Show the___yazzer's posts

    Re: TIME TO BENCH, DL OR MOVE ELLS TO LEFT: HOW ARE WE EVER GOING TO AFFORD THIS GUY NOW?

    In Response to Re: TIME TO BENCH, DL OR MOVE ELLS TO LEFT: HOW ARE WE EVER GOING TO AFFORD THIS GUY NOW?:
    The bad signings will ALWAYS out weigh the good even if the good vs bad is 10 to 1 especially in Boston. If they do not sign him and he is still the same guy we see now in 5 years  every single person in Boston will be after Theo for not signing him.  So as usual in Boston Theo is is a damned if you do and Damned if you don't. BTW if Ells is just a 290, 15 hr 40 sb guy and Reddick or Kalish fail it will stilll be a Damned if you do and damned that you didn't for Theo. With RS fans it is always a lose lose situation for the RS FO and manager.
    Posted by JimfromFlorida


    looks like there's something brown on your nose there, jim.
    btw, spaceman and zillagod are looking for members for their THEO BOOT-LICKERS CLUB. you would fit right in.

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from myaim45. Show myaim45's posts

    Re: TIME TO BENCH, DL OR MOVE ELLS TO LEFT: HOW ARE WE EVER GOING TO AFFORD THIS GUY NOW?

    Ells will go to arbitration, just like every other one of Boras's players. If Ells continues to show he can be consistent with his numbers through the rest of his contract, he will get a crawford deal. 



    The real question is why are you freaking out about this now? He's under contract for this year and next year, how about you watch him play baseball, enjoy it, and worry about his contract when it comes up.
     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from LloydDobler. Show LloydDobler's posts

    Re: TIME TO BENCH, DL OR MOVE ELLS TO LEFT: HOW ARE WE EVER GOING TO AFFORD THIS GUY NOW?

    In Response to Re: TIME TO BENCH, DL OR MOVE ELLS TO LEFT: HOW ARE WE EVER GOING TO AFFORD THIS GUY NOW?:
    In Response to Re: TIME TO BENCH, DL OR MOVE ELLS TO LEFT: HOW ARE WE EVER GOING TO AFFORD THIS GUY NOW? : Well, we'd have more of a hole at 3rd than first but...
    Posted by emp9

    True that.
     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from jimedfred. Show jimedfred's posts

    Re: TIME TO BENCH, DL OR MOVE ELLS TO LEFT: HOW ARE WE EVER GOING TO AFFORD THIS GUY NOW?

    If a hitter succeeds 3 times out of 10, we call him great. If a GM succeeds 5 of 10 times, he should be credited. A God ? NO.
    But a GM who's delivered 2 World Champs ( and counting...! ), had the personnel to be in playoffs on an annual basis ?
    Yes, he has a big budget. However he's definitely unafraid to take chances ( Nomar in 2004), usually makes lemonade from lemons ( Manny-J. Bay deal ), and often hits BIG ( Saltalamacchia, Beltre, Draft choices including Ranaudo from Wagner deal ).
    Some Sox fans are spoiled rotten ! WHY such negativity ?
    Anybody here remember Tom Yawkey's mismanagement ? Haywood Sullivan ?
    Theo Epstein, on balance, is in top 4 or 5 GMs easily.
     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from beavis. Show beavis's posts

    Re: TIME TO BENCH, DL OR MOVE ELLS TO LEFT: HOW ARE WE EVER GOING TO AFFORD THIS GUY NOW?

    In Response to Re: TIME TO BENCH, DL OR MOVE ELLS TO LEFT: HOW ARE WE EVER GOING TO AFFORD THIS GUY NOW?:
    Theo will definately have his hands full dealing with Boras yet again.
    Posted by jpBsSoxFan


    Theo is going to invite Boras for Thanksgiving this year
     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from tomnev. Show tomnev's posts

    Re: TIME TO BENCH, DL OR MOVE ELLS TO LEFT: HOW ARE WE EVER GOING TO AFFORD THIS GUY NOW?

    In Response to Re: TIME TO BENCH, DL OR MOVE ELLS TO LEFT: HOW ARE WE EVER GOING TO AFFORD THIS GUY NOW?:
    In Response to Re: TIME TO BENCH, DL OR MOVE ELLS TO LEFT: HOW ARE WE EVER GOING TO AFFORD THIS GUY NOW? : Glad to see you and others ignored softy's cherry picked drivel Moon. Ellsbury ( age 27 NOT 28 ) has slowly improved from age 24-25 (when he was last healthy in 08/09) and is now entering his prime. As we predicted he slowly got better from .280/.335-.300/.355 and now .315/.370... with bonus HR power (I felt he would top out in the 16-21 range, certain fools laughed at that and reality has humilated them) Frontloading the contract offer is indeed the best plan. He is not a 6-8 million arb guy... more like 8-12 over the next 2 years. but if you make that 14-16, he better start telling his agent to do what HE wants, not what Scott wants. 6 years and that all important 100 million, and he'd be really greedy and/or foolish to say no. 14 and 16 million ages 28 and 29 (when he'd make 10 million less in arb) can't be ignored. 20-20 million ages 30-31... his first 2 FA years he makes the same as CC and no more than he possibly could get in free agency. 18 and 16 million ages 32 and 33. Descending yearly $ that allows Sox to make up some of the extra cash they gave him in 2012/13. We blew it on Damon, when it would have taken 4/50 to keep him. He would have been 32-35 those years. Ellsbury would only be here through age 33, and certainly a better fielder with more speed than Damon. Even if he NEVER repeats this season, injury free, we have a guy who will hit over .300 with an OBP in the .360... more than 40 steals and HR totals in the teens. He's an above average CFer. That is about what Crwford was in the years leading up to his crazy deal, and its the WORST CASE of what ells will be till age 32-33. Or offer him the Torii Hunter 5/90... we get to drop him at age 31, same as we did Damon. And Boras can prob get him another 5/90 at that point.
    Posted by rameakap


    Good points.....or you could try offering just a 4 year deal, so that way in Boras mind he could get him a second big free agent contract which would stretch till he was 35 or 36. Since 2 of those years would be given up ARB years where he would make 8-10 million....4 at 60mil could work.
     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from S5. Show S5's posts

    Re: TIME TO BENCH, DL OR MOVE ELLS TO LEFT: HOW ARE WE EVER GOING TO AFFORD THIS GUY NOW?

    Let's not panic over this yet.  Ells still has two more years of commitment to the sox.  During those two years he'll either continue to deliver or will prove that this year's numbers are a fluke.  (I'm hoping for Door #1, Monty!)

    If he continues to deliver, by the time 2013 comes along Crawford's contract will be a non-issue as several players will be making more that CC by using Crawford's salary as a bargaining too.

    If Ells doesn't continue to deliver this whole discussion will be a moot point.

    This seems to me like an issue that will take care of itself in time.   
     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from S5. Show S5's posts

    Re: TIME TO BENCH, DL OR MOVE ELLS TO LEFT: HOW ARE WE EVER GOING TO AFFORD THIS GUY NOW?

    I'min favor of signing him NOW to a big front-loaded 4 or 5 year contract, somethng like $20-20-15-15-10.  That will leave him at age 32 to sign yet another big contract just at the point where his abilities should peak. 
     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from fivekatz. Show fivekatz's posts

    Re: TIME TO BENCH, DL OR MOVE ELLS TO LEFT: HOW ARE WE EVER GOING TO AFFORD THIS GUY NOW?

    Who knows what might be worked out but I just don't see it. The RS haven't left themselves a lot of headroom under the CBT for 2012 so for starters any extension would probably have to be an April extension if the rules even continue to allow that procedural move that Epstein has used with Ortiz, Buch, Beckett and most recently A-Gon.

    Next you have Boras perspective and how he will advise his client. Boras doesn't control players but they hire him because they respect his judgment in maximizing their career earnings. Historically Boras hates trading FA years to get security in arbitration years. The odds say it is unlikely that the player won't make it to FA and the history shows they can make more by going through arbitration and take advantage of the earliest FA gate and then hold out for the longest high $$$ deal possible.

    I just don't see this playing out any other way than Ellsbury going through the arbitration process and the hitting FA. And because the RS have so much money invested in Carl Crawford I don't see the RS being able to be the prevailing bidder in FA.

    Over the next couple of years it will come into focus if Ellsbury is having a career year or this is who he is. If this is who he is, Crawford's signing will be an albatross of the first order. If Ellsbury comes back to earth and Crawford returns to his career norms, the Crawford signing will have prevented retaining a similar player who can play more OF positions.

    But IMO any way you look at CC's contract is the elephant in the room.
     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from fivekatz. Show fivekatz's posts

    Re: TIME TO BENCH, DL OR MOVE ELLS TO LEFT: HOW ARE WE EVER GOING TO AFFORD THIS GUY NOW?

    In Response to Re: TIME TO BENCH, DL OR MOVE ELLS TO LEFT: HOW ARE WE EVER GOING TO AFFORD THIS GUY NOW?:
    In Response to Re: TIME TO BENCH, DL OR MOVE ELLS TO LEFT: HOW ARE WE EVER GOING TO AFFORD THIS GUY NOW? : Yeah that's a good point, offer him the 4 year 64 million they gave Beckett. He still gets a big payday age 31-32.
    Posted by rameakap
    Look at it from the player/agent's perspective.

    If I am calculating correctly, Ellsbury will have two more arbitration years left.

    This year he should see a big bump, my guess is they end up at $7M. Assuming he repeats 2011 in 2012 he goes to $10M for 2013 season.

    That's $17M and he is a FA at 29 going on 30. Right now the comp contract is Crawford's.

    He's a year older than CC was so let's say it's a 6 year deal instead of 7. Now Boras won't see it this way but for argument sake let's say that the market sees CC's contract as stupid and the comp would be 80% of CC deal and one year less.

    That still makes Ellsbury's contract as a FA worth about $97M. That $97M + $17M is $114M in career earnings versus taking $64M through 2014. Boras of course will assume he will get at least what CC did and that number is even bigger at just under $140M.

    Ellsbury would have be dead set on getting sure money now to get Boras to deviate from the "Boras formula" IMO and most people don't hire Boras to tell him what to do.
     
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