TIME TO BENCH, DL OR MOVE ELLS TO LEFT: HOW ARE WE EVER GOING TO AFFORD THIS GUY NOW?

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    Re: TIME TO BENCH, DL OR MOVE ELLS TO LEFT: HOW ARE WE EVER GOING TO AFFORD THIS GUY NOW?

    I'min favor of signing him NOW to a big front-loaded 4 or 5 year contract, somethng like $20-20-15-15-10.  That will leave him at age 32 to sign yet another big contract just at the point where his abilities should peak. 
     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from fivekatz. Show fivekatz's posts

    Re: TIME TO BENCH, DL OR MOVE ELLS TO LEFT: HOW ARE WE EVER GOING TO AFFORD THIS GUY NOW?

    Who knows what might be worked out but I just don't see it. The RS haven't left themselves a lot of headroom under the CBT for 2012 so for starters any extension would probably have to be an April extension if the rules even continue to allow that procedural move that Epstein has used with Ortiz, Buch, Beckett and most recently A-Gon.

    Next you have Boras perspective and how he will advise his client. Boras doesn't control players but they hire him because they respect his judgment in maximizing their career earnings. Historically Boras hates trading FA years to get security in arbitration years. The odds say it is unlikely that the player won't make it to FA and the history shows they can make more by going through arbitration and take advantage of the earliest FA gate and then hold out for the longest high $$$ deal possible.

    I just don't see this playing out any other way than Ellsbury going through the arbitration process and the hitting FA. And because the RS have so much money invested in Carl Crawford I don't see the RS being able to be the prevailing bidder in FA.

    Over the next couple of years it will come into focus if Ellsbury is having a career year or this is who he is. If this is who he is, Crawford's signing will be an albatross of the first order. If Ellsbury comes back to earth and Crawford returns to his career norms, the Crawford signing will have prevented retaining a similar player who can play more OF positions.

    But IMO any way you look at CC's contract is the elephant in the room.
     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from rameakap. Show rameakap's posts

    Re: TIME TO BENCH, DL OR MOVE ELLS TO LEFT: HOW ARE WE EVER GOING TO AFFORD THIS GUY NOW?

    In Response to Re: TIME TO BENCH, DL OR MOVE ELLS TO LEFT: HOW ARE WE EVER GOING TO AFFORD THIS GUY NOW?:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: TIME TO BENCH, DL OR MOVE ELLS TO LEFT: HOW ARE WE EVER GOING TO AFFORD THIS GUY NOW? : Good points.....or you could try offering just a 4 year deal, so that way in Boras mind he could get him a second big free agent contract which would stretch till he was 35 or 36. Since 2 of those years would be given up ARB years where he would make 8-10 million....4 at 60mil could work.
    Posted by tomnev[/QUOTE]

    Yeah that's a good point, offer him the 4 year 64 million they gave Beckett. He still gets a big payday age 31-32.
     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from fivekatz. Show fivekatz's posts

    Re: TIME TO BENCH, DL OR MOVE ELLS TO LEFT: HOW ARE WE EVER GOING TO AFFORD THIS GUY NOW?

    In Response to Re: TIME TO BENCH, DL OR MOVE ELLS TO LEFT: HOW ARE WE EVER GOING TO AFFORD THIS GUY NOW?:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: TIME TO BENCH, DL OR MOVE ELLS TO LEFT: HOW ARE WE EVER GOING TO AFFORD THIS GUY NOW? : Yeah that's a good point, offer him the 4 year 64 million they gave Beckett. He still gets a big payday age 31-32.
    Posted by rameakap[/QUOTE]Look at it from the player/agent's perspective.

    If I am calculating correctly, Ellsbury will have two more arbitration years left.

    This year he should see a big bump, my guess is they end up at $7M. Assuming he repeats 2011 in 2012 he goes to $10M for 2013 season.

    That's $17M and he is a FA at 29 going on 30. Right now the comp contract is Crawford's.

    He's a year older than CC was so let's say it's a 6 year deal instead of 7. Now Boras won't see it this way but for argument sake let's say that the market sees CC's contract as stupid and the comp would be 80% of CC deal and one year less.

    That still makes Ellsbury's contract as a FA worth about $97M. That $97M + $17M is $114M in career earnings versus taking $64M through 2014. Boras of course will assume he will get at least what CC did and that number is even bigger at just under $140M.

    Ellsbury would have be dead set on getting sure money now to get Boras to deviate from the "Boras formula" IMO and most people don't hire Boras to tell him what to do.
     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from tomnev. Show tomnev's posts

    Re: TIME TO BENCH, DL OR MOVE ELLS TO LEFT: HOW ARE WE EVER GOING TO AFFORD THIS GUY NOW?

    In Response to Re: TIME TO BENCH, DL OR MOVE ELLS TO LEFT: HOW ARE WE EVER GOING TO AFFORD THIS GUY NOW?:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: TIME TO BENCH, DL OR MOVE ELLS TO LEFT: HOW ARE WE EVER GOING TO AFFORD THIS GUY NOW? : Look at it from the player/agent's perspective. If I am calculating correctly, Ellsbury will have two more arbitration years left. This year he should see a big bump, my guess is they end up at $7M. Assuming he repeats 2011 in 2012 he goes to $10M for 2013 season. That's $17M and he is a FA at 29 going on 30. Right now the comp contract is Crawford's. He's a year older than CC was so let's say it's a 6 year deal instead of 7. Now Boras won't see it this way but for argument sake let's say that the market sees CC's contract as stupid and the comp would be 80% of CC deal and one year less. That still makes Ellsbury's contract as a FA worth about $97M. That $97M + $17M is $114M in career earnings versus taking $64M through 2014. Boras of course will assume he will get at least what CC did and that number is even bigger at just under $140M. Ellsbury would have be dead set on getting sure money now to get Boras to deviate from the "Boras formula" IMO and most people don't hire Boras to tell him what to do.
    Posted by fivekatz[/QUOTE]
    Your numbers are correct, but at then end of that 6 year deal he is now 36(not a good age for a guy whose speed is one of his big attirbutes. If he takes the 4 year deal at even 60m now, he will be 31/32 and now he could probably get a 5 year deal at 90m....so at 36/37 he has made more money because he was willing to give up those ARB years and lock himself into the Sox at a more reasonable number for them. And in 4 years the Sox may have more roster flexibility and a larger Salary Cap to resign you at that time.
     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from fivekatz. Show fivekatz's posts

    Re: TIME TO BENCH, DL OR MOVE ELLS TO LEFT: HOW ARE WE EVER GOING TO AFFORD THIS GUY NOW?

    In Response to Re: TIME TO BENCH, DL OR MOVE ELLS TO LEFT: HOW ARE WE EVER GOING TO AFFORD THIS GUY NOW?:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: TIME TO BENCH, DL OR MOVE ELLS TO LEFT: HOW ARE WE EVER GOING TO AFFORD THIS GUY NOW? : Your numbers are correct, but at then end of that 6 year deal he is now 36(not a good age for a guy whose speed is one of his big attirbutes. If he takes the 4 year deal at even 60m now, he will be 31/32 and now he could probably get a 5 year deal at 90m....so at 36/37 he has made more money because he was willing to give up those ARB years and lock himself into the Sox at a more reasonable number for them. And in 4 years the Sox may have more roster flexibility and a larger Salary Cap to resign you at that time.
    Posted by tomnev[/QUOTE]I think we are looking at this from our perspective to some extent.

    I am just expressing the pattern Boras has followed with his clients through out his career and the numbers behind it. Boras' belief has been that if he waits out arbitration, FA bidding will always drive a higher salary than any extension will. He believes in getting his players to FA as quickly as the CBA will allow and then leverage open bidding to create the longest possible contract for the highest dollars.

    Nothing in the case of Jacoby Ellsbury appears to have any elements that would sway that proven tact. Does the player have an extraordinarily good relationship with the FO, the media or the fan base in Boston? Not really, if anything 2010 was a real downer in all those aspects. Did his teammates have his back last year? Not really.

    So where the rubber meets the road, this is just business and I just don't see how the RS and Boras get together and that has only be compounded by the comp that Crawford contract created and the fact that the RS are the ones already paying that contract. 
     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from rameakap. Show rameakap's posts

    Re: TIME TO BENCH, DL OR MOVE ELLS TO LEFT: HOW ARE WE EVER GOING TO AFFORD THIS GUY NOW?

    In Response to Re: TIME TO BENCH, DL OR MOVE ELLS TO LEFT: HOW ARE WE EVER GOING TO AFFORD THIS GUY NOW?:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: TIME TO BENCH, DL OR MOVE ELLS TO LEFT: HOW ARE WE EVER GOING TO AFFORD THIS GUY NOW? : Look at it from the player/agent's perspective. If I am calculating correctly, Ellsbury will have two more arbitration years left. This year he should see a big bump, my guess is they end up at $7M. Assuming he repeats 2011 in 2012 he goes to $10M for 2013 season. That's $17M and he is a FA at 29 going on 30. Right now the comp contract is Crawford's. He's a year older than CC was so let's say it's a 6 year deal instead of 7. Now Boras won't see it this way but for argument sake let's say that the market sees CC's contract as stupid and the comp would be 80% of CC deal and one year less. That still makes Ellsbury's contract as a FA worth about $97M. That $97M + $17M is $114M in career earnings versus taking $64M through 2014. Boras of course will assume he will get at least what CC did and that number is even bigger at just under $140M. Ellsbury would have be dead set on getting sure money now to get Boras to deviate from the "Boras formula" IMO and most people don't hire Boras to tell him what to do.
    Posted by fivekatz[/QUOTE]


    If we give him 64 million over 4 years, he makes say 12 million more in the next 2 years than via arb, then at ages 32-35 I'm sure he will be given a contract of more than 4/50. 4/50 is what Damomn got and that would just have him break even at the 8/114 you mention as the likely #.

    In my opinion ages 32-36 Ells will likely get between the Aaron Rowand 5/60 and the Torii hunter 5/90, esp if he keeps 22-27 HR power with 35-45 steals.

    That means he'd be getting 124-154 million over the next 9 years with 12 million more in the first two years, vs. waiting out arb with massive pressure to repeat his 2011 stats and avoid unjury, to make 12 million less these next 2 years and hope for the 7 year 140 million CC contract that will end up getting him.... what...about that same 12 million more over the span of 9 years... only NOT in the next 2 yrs... so no way should that make-up for a frontloaded 4/64, unless he has  doubt he can be just a .285/.365 20 HR guy in his 30's.
     

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