TIME TO BENCH, DL OR MOVE ELLS TO LEFT: HOW ARE WE EVER GOING TO AFFORD THIS GUY NOW?

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    Re: TIME TO BENCH, DL OR MOVE ELLS TO LEFT: HOW ARE WE EVER GOING TO AFFORD THIS GUY NOW?

    In Response to Re: TIME TO BENCH, DL OR MOVE ELLS TO LEFT: HOW ARE WE EVER GOING TO AFFORD THIS GUY NOW?:
    In Response to Re: TIME TO BENCH, DL OR MOVE ELLS TO LEFT: HOW ARE WE EVER GOING TO AFFORD THIS GUY NOW? : Look at it from the player/agent's perspective. If I am calculating correctly, Ellsbury will have two more arbitration years left. This year he should see a big bump, my guess is they end up at $7M. Assuming he repeats 2011 in 2012 he goes to $10M for 2013 season. That's $17M and he is a FA at 29 going on 30. Right now the comp contract is Crawford's. He's a year older than CC was so let's say it's a 6 year deal instead of 7. Now Boras won't see it this way but for argument sake let's say that the market sees CC's contract as stupid and the comp would be 80% of CC deal and one year less. That still makes Ellsbury's contract as a FA worth about $97M. That $97M + $17M is $114M in career earnings versus taking $64M through 2014. Boras of course will assume he will get at least what CC did and that number is even bigger at just under $140M. Ellsbury would have be dead set on getting sure money now to get Boras to deviate from the "Boras formula" IMO and most people don't hire Boras to tell him what to do.
    Posted by fivekatz

    Your numbers are correct, but at then end of that 6 year deal he is now 36(not a good age for a guy whose speed is one of his big attirbutes. If he takes the 4 year deal at even 60m now, he will be 31/32 and now he could probably get a 5 year deal at 90m....so at 36/37 he has made more money because he was willing to give up those ARB years and lock himself into the Sox at a more reasonable number for them. And in 4 years the Sox may have more roster flexibility and a larger Salary Cap to resign you at that time.
     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from fivekatz. Show fivekatz's posts

    Re: TIME TO BENCH, DL OR MOVE ELLS TO LEFT: HOW ARE WE EVER GOING TO AFFORD THIS GUY NOW?

    In Response to Re: TIME TO BENCH, DL OR MOVE ELLS TO LEFT: HOW ARE WE EVER GOING TO AFFORD THIS GUY NOW?:
    In Response to Re: TIME TO BENCH, DL OR MOVE ELLS TO LEFT: HOW ARE WE EVER GOING TO AFFORD THIS GUY NOW? : Your numbers are correct, but at then end of that 6 year deal he is now 36(not a good age for a guy whose speed is one of his big attirbutes. If he takes the 4 year deal at even 60m now, he will be 31/32 and now he could probably get a 5 year deal at 90m....so at 36/37 he has made more money because he was willing to give up those ARB years and lock himself into the Sox at a more reasonable number for them. And in 4 years the Sox may have more roster flexibility and a larger Salary Cap to resign you at that time.
    Posted by tomnev
    I think we are looking at this from our perspective to some extent.

    I am just expressing the pattern Boras has followed with his clients through out his career and the numbers behind it. Boras' belief has been that if he waits out arbitration, FA bidding will always drive a higher salary than any extension will. He believes in getting his players to FA as quickly as the CBA will allow and then leverage open bidding to create the longest possible contract for the highest dollars.

    Nothing in the case of Jacoby Ellsbury appears to have any elements that would sway that proven tact. Does the player have an extraordinarily good relationship with the FO, the media or the fan base in Boston? Not really, if anything 2010 was a real downer in all those aspects. Did his teammates have his back last year? Not really.

    So where the rubber meets the road, this is just business and I just don't see how the RS and Boras get together and that has only be compounded by the comp that Crawford contract created and the fact that the RS are the ones already paying that contract. 
     
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