Time to Bench Salty

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    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In Response to Re: Time to Bench Salty:
    In Response to Re: Time to Bench Salty : I would like to see where the statistics are for "game preparation by a catcher". I asked you which defensive metrics you prefer to use. You gave me none. Apparently, for you, none matter. IMO that makes your arguement weaker. Although defensive metrics are not perfect, they are also not useless. Its better than "I think he is a good defensive catcher". I also asked you if you rank Salty in the top third of catchers defensively. Again, no answer. You are good at saying that my approach is wrong, but you have no objective approach at all-its all fluffy opinion. Thats fine; its just weaker....IMO.
    Posted by pumpsie-green
    I referred you to Moon's defensive stats based on defensive metrics. They are good enough for me. How about you?
    If you understood the meaning of "objective," as opposed, say, to "impartial," you would ( no, you might ) understand that your approach is not objective.
    See my earlier comments on usefulness of stats. No don't bother. If you didn't understand them the first of second time.... 
    You play by the rule of thirds. I don't, as I've said at least twice. I am under no obligation to play by your rules of engagement. Got it, finally?

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from expitch. Show expitch's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    Asking where the stats are for "game preparation" by a catcher was a joke. Right?
     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from expitch. Show expitch's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In Response to Re: Time to Bench Salty:
    I am nearly certain of this, one of 2 things will happen: 1) Papi stays and Salty or Lava is traded (my bet would be Salty). 2) Papi walks and Lava is given the DH job to lose and catches vs LHPs.
    Posted by moonslav59
    I agree on the likelihood of your first point. That doesn't mean that I would approve the move. If that is the move, the Sox would clearly be counting on rapid development by Lavarnway behind the plate. Right now, he looks pretty much as described in scouting reports.
    To the second point, all indicators up to his recent recall predict that Lavarnway will hit ML pitching. Even so, how well and with how much power remain to be seen. I've seen too many "can't misses" miss, or least fall considerably short of expectations. I believe that the proof is in the bat, not in projections, however well calculated. 
    I will not repeat my reservations about having the two on the same roster come 2013.

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    I think for one year it wouldnt hurt ex. Salty is improving and is in his final year of arb. It would give Lav time behind the plate at the MLB level but still giving Salty the bulk of the load. Papi resigning might be the key in all this. They might only offer him another 1 year arb contract which would allow Salty and Lav to work together for a year. If they do that than they could keep both in 2014 rotating the DH slot.
    I agree that Lav has more work to do and could serve well as a backup for a year. You give salty 90-100 games and Lav about 60 or so. It could work IMO, but a lot depends on what deals are made this offseason. Either way I think Salty deserves, and has earned another year to see if his progression continues.
     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from expitch. Show expitch's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In Response to Re: Time to Bench Salty:
    I think for one year it wouldnt hurt ex. Salty is improving and is in his final year of arb. It would give Lav time behind the plate at the MLB level but still giving Salty the bulk of the load. Papi resigning might be the key in all this. They might only offer him another 1 year arb contract which would allow Salty and Lav to work together for a year. If they do that than they could keep both in 2014 rotating the DH slot. I agree that Lav has more work to do and could serve well as a backup for a year. You give salty 90-100 games and Lav about 60 or so. It could work IMO, but a lot depends on what deals are made this offseason. Either way I think Salty deserves, and has earned another year to see if his progression continues.
    Posted by southpaw777
    It might work fine. BUT
    I doubt that Salty is a good enough all-around hitter to be a DH. We don't know if Lavarnway will be.
    If Ortiz resigns, Salty is likely to get the bulk of catching time, at least to start with, and Lavarnway will be the de facto back-up.  Unlike a situation in which the back-up is settled in the role, Lavarnway will be playing for a starting job, in Boston or elsewhere. He and Salty will inescapably be in competition. I have already expressed my reservations about that arrangement. It is fraught with unnecessary tension, no matter how hard the two men try to tamp it down. In fact, trying to tamp it down is kind of unnatural, and could end up causing even more tension. Even for a year. After all, the two in 2013 will be competing for the starting job in 2014, if not during 2013. Why put them in that situation? This club already has enough morale problems, or so we are led to believe. Makes me uneasy, to say nothing of them.
    If in its infinite wisdom the FO decides that Lavarnway is the catcher of the future, best it trade Salty in the offseason and get it over with. Whether or not Ortiz returns. Same the other way around. 
    Salty is a starting catcher, deservedly. Lavarnway is ticketed to be a starting catcher. IMO, the sooner they are firmly settled in that role, the better for them and for their teams. 
    If Salty is told that he and Lavarnway will compete to start in 2013, I can hear him say, "You know, I hear it's very nice in the East Bay, right across from San Francisco. Big park. But I can reach the seats. Give Beane a call. See what you can do."
    It's all up for grabs at this point.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    Yes. PB/inning or PB per 100 pitches is better still...

    My guess is that as bad as thi staff has been, Salty has fielded more pitches per inning caught than the average catcher, so looking at where he places in PBs and WPs per inning, I'd guess he may rank even better if you did it per pitch.
     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from ma6dragon9. Show ma6dragon9's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    For all the complaining about salty...I don't see a lot of other possibilities being thrown around.

    I laid out the 6-8 guys that are better than him, and showed he's right around the 9/10th best in the league. Nobody disputed that.

    So, I guess I'm to assume that unless the Sox have a Top 5 player at C, then fans will complain and that's, well....I go with "silly" as I'm in a good mood.

    Would people be happier with Russel Martin? Arencibia? Who?
     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In Response to Re: Time to Bench Salty:
    I am nearly certain of this, one of 2 things will happen: 1) Papi stays and Salty or Lava is traded (my bet would be Salty). 2) Papi walks and Lava is given the DH job to lose and catches vs LHPs.
    Posted by moonslav59
    I agree on the likelihood of your first point. That doesn't mean that I would approve the move. If that is the move, the Sox would clearly be counting on rapid development by Lavarnway behind the plate. Right now, he looks pretty much as described in scouting reports.

    I agree. It would be a huge gamble for a team looking to compete in 2013 to allow Lava to learn as he goes at the top level.

    To the second point, all indicators up to his recent recall predict that Lavarnway will hit ML pitching. Even so, how well and with how much power remain to be seen. I've seen too many "can't misses" miss, or least fall considerably short of expectations. I believe that the proof is in the bat, not in projections, however well calculated. 

    Yes, there are countless examples of players who tore up the minors and never amounted to anything in the bigs.

    I will not repeat my reservations about having the two on the same roster come 2013.

    Without Papi, I think it is much more manageable, but I understand your point.

    I do think we have so many other pressing needs on this team, that Ben will make his winter catcher choice and trade the other. He will sign another vet to be the back-up (platoon) catcher, and we will hope he chooses the right one.

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from dannycater. Show dannycater's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    Salty was rated 84th out of 85 catchers in a defensive chart I somehow googled. When the creator/writer of the rankings mentioned Salty, he actually said that Salty's power offsets whatever he lacks behind the plate, and that rankings aside, Salty wasn't as bad as the ranking listed. So what the guy was really saying was--even he thinks his ratings are kind of bogus. It's a metric/stat chart with codes, not addressing a ton of other variables. With that said, I thought Salty could have blocked the plate better on the Podsednik throw, had he blocked it the way a good veteran catcher does--Molina, Varitek--the runner would have been out. The tag was there, but that extra space he gave him was the difference. He should have been stopped cold on the slide and then tagged as he tried to slip his hand around the glove....that's what should have happened on that play.
     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In Response to Re: Time to Bench Salty:
    Salty was rated 84th out of 85 catchers in a defensive chart I somehow googled. When the creator/writer of the rankings mentioned Salty, he actually said that Salty's power offsets whatever he lacks behind the plate, and that rankings aside, Salty wasn't as bad as the ranking listed. So what the guy was really saying was--even he thinks his ratings are kind of bogus. It's a metric/stat chart with codes, not addressing a ton of other variables. With that said, I thought Salty could have blocked the plate better on the Podsednik throw, had he blocked it the way a good veteran catcher does--Molina, Varitek--the runner would have been out. The tag was there, but that extra space he gave him was the difference. He should have been stopped cold on the slide and then tagged as he tried to slip his hand around the glove....that's what should have happened on that play.
    Posted by dannycater


    Can you post that link?
    Moon ALMOST has me convinced that Salty isn't that bad defensively. His arguement is a good one. I still don't like his CS%, a piece of data that I think is important despite its limitations.
     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from dannycater. Show dannycater's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    Let me find it, i had googled it. If you hit MLB Catcher Rankings in google, I think you can find it.
     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In Response to Re: Time to Bench Salty:
    Let me find it, i had googled it. If you hit MLB Catcher Rankings in google, I think you can find it.
    Posted by dannycater


    This was written in June.

    http://blogs.thescore.com/mlb/2012/06/07/fogging-the-measure-catcher-defense-ratings-june-2012-edition/
     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In Response to Re: Time to Bench Salty:
    In Response to Re: Time to Bench Salty : It might work fine. BUT I doubt that Salty is a good enough all-around hitter to be a DH. We don't know if Lavarnway will be. If Ortiz resigns, Salty is likely to get the bulk of catching time, at least to start with, and Lavarnway will be the de facto back-up.  Unlike a situation in which the back-up is settled in the role, Lavarnway will be playing for a starting job, in Boston or elsewhere. He and Salty will inescapably be in competition. I have already expressed my reservations about that arrangement. It is fraught with unnecessary tension, no matter how hard the two men try to tamp it down. In fact, trying to tamp it down is kind of unnatural, and could end up causing even more tension. Even for a year. After all, the two in 2013 will be competing for the starting job in 2014, if not during 2013. Why put them in that situation? This club already has enough morale problems, or so we are led to believe. Makes me uneasy, to say nothing of them. If in its infinite wisdom the FO decides that Lavarnway is the catcher of the future, best it trade Salty in the offseason and get it over with. Whether or not Ortiz returns. Same the other way around.  Salty is a starting catcher, deservedly. Lavarnway is ticketed to be a starting catcher. IMO, the sooner they are firmly settled in that role, the better for them and for their teams.  If Salty is told that he and Lavarnway will compete to start in 2013, I can hear him say, "You know, I hear it's very nice in the East Bay, right across from San Francisco. Big park. But I can reach the seats. Give Beane a call. See what you can do." It's all up for grabs at this point.
    Posted by expitch


    I understand your points. Although I think I would work better if Papi doesnt return with Lav taking most of the DH AB's. You dont have to put Salty at DH on his days off except maybe to PH when a RHP enters the game late.
    I know, I want my cake and eat it too. Im just caught between seeing Salty improve and the potential there and Lav, who has shown very little since being called up, but also has that potential. Salty right now has more value as a trade option as hes more established as a FT catcher whereas Lav is not. But do you take the chance in 2013 with Lav behind the dish full time? That thought scares me at this time. Its a tough decision. Lavs value is in his potential and not his production and just the opposite for Salty and his noticeable improvement.
     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from xcaliber. Show xcaliber's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    What we need is a new hitting coach and more over pitching and damn near every other coaching position....
     
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    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In Response to Re: Time to Bench Salty:
    In Response to Re: Time to Bench Salty : This was written in June. http://blogs.thescore.com/mlb/2012/06/07/fogging-the-measure-catcher-defense-ratings-june-2012-edition/
    Posted by pumpsie-green


    85th of 86...that was the one I saw.
     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In Response to Re: Time to Bench Salty:
    What we need is a new hitting coach and more over pitching and damn near every other coaching position....
    Posted by xcaliber


    I really think that the FO just might let BV pick his staff for one year. With all the injuries and turmoil this year, I honestly dont think he was given a fair shot. Hes made a couple boneheaded moves sure, but what manager hasnt. If he had a healthy line up and they got rid of a couple of the malcontents and there was much less drama I think things could be different. wel, I KNOW things would be different.
    Also I think they really want John Farrell and the easiest thing to do, besides ask the jays to make a trade, would be to let BV finish his 2yr deal and see what happens...Not sure they would hire a guy for 1 year if in fact they are going after JF.
     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    Salty right now has more value as a trade option as hes more established as a FT catcher whereas Lav is not. But do you take the chance in 2013 with Lav behind the dish full time? That thought scares me at this time. Its a tough decision. Lavs value is in his potential and not his production and just the opposite for Salty and his noticeable improvement.

    Depends on who we are trading to. A rebuilding team or low budget team might prefer Lava. A contending team might prefer Salty.

    Salty has only one year of control; Lava much more.
     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from expitch. Show expitch's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In Response to Re: Time to Bench Salty:
    Salty was rated 84th out of 85 catchers in a defensive chart I somehow googled. When the creator/writer of the rankings mentioned Salty, he actually said that Salty's power offsets whatever he lacks behind the plate, and that rankings aside, Salty wasn't as bad as the ranking listed. So what the guy was really saying was--even he thinks his ratings are kind of bogus. It's a metric/stat chart with codes, not addressing a ton of other variables. With that said, I thought Salty could have blocked the plate better on the Podsednik throw, had he blocked it the way a good veteran catcher does--Molina, Varitek--the runner would have been out. The tag was there, but that extra space he gave him was the difference. He should have been stopped cold on the slide and then tagged as he tried to slip his hand around the glove....that's what should have happened on that play.
    Posted by dannycater
    I didn't see the play at the plate. That play is almost always dicey. I've seen five of them involving Salty. One he should have made. Another he didn't have much of a chance. The other three he executed perfectly, including one in which he blocked the plate with his left left and made a sweeping tag.
    Hilarious. The guy offers a byzantine rating system but doesn't think much of it himself. On its face, a system that ranks Salty 84 out of 85 is chimerical. People should be warned not to feed some of these metrics loonies. There is substantial quantification, when it recognizes its limits, and there is quantification run amok. Einstein, who knew a little bit about numbers, spoke to this issue succinctly. In fact, in my experience, the more people know about numbers ( including my father ), the more cautious they are with them. 
    Salty's power was said to offset his miserable defense. That's at least three standard deviations ( in metaphoric terms ) from the "normal" criteria for evaluating catchers. Maybe the function is being redefined in some minds. Who cares if the guy is a disaster behind the plate and with pitchers? Look, he just put one in the seats. There goes another. 




     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    While I think sabermetrics have their place in evaluating defense, the catching position is probably too complex to include all the factors and intangibles needed to get a full and accurate rating.

    That being said, you need to go down to 100 PAs to even get a sample size of 60 catchers (2 per team x 30 teams). On fangraphs "Value" page, the fielding portion of WAR lists Salty as #30 out of 59 in MLB with a 0.0 rating.

    If you put the PAs at 220 for 2012, Salty places 19th out of 30.

    By the way, they value Salty at about $7.4M so far this season. That's about double what he is being paid.
     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In Response to Re: Time to Bench Salty:
    While I think sabermetrics have their place in evaluating defense, the catching position is probably too complex to include all the factors and intangibles needed to get a full and accurate rating. That being said, you need to go down to 100 PAs to even get a sample size of 60 catchers (2 per team x 30 teams). On fangraphs "Value" page, the fielding portion of WAR lists Salty as #30 out of 59 in MLB with a 0.0 rating. If you put the PAs at 220 for 2012, Salty places 19th out of 30. By the way, they value Salty at about $7.4M so far this season. That's about double what he is being paid.
    Posted by moonslav59


    actually thats triple what were paying him this year...2.5mm
     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from craze4sox. Show craze4sox's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In Response to Re: Time to Bench Salty:
    In Response to Re: Time to Bench Salty : actually thats triple what were paying him this year...2.5mm
    Posted by southpaw777


    This thread has really gotten old southpaw.  Salty is below average in just about everything except SLG and he SO four times more than he walks.

    I really don't get why people think Salty will improve after all this time, or should be a starter.  We traded for Victor because Tek started his decline in 2006, but even Jason was better than Salty.  Its now six years later and the catching position is even worse.  Whats wrong with people?   They can find a way to support Salty but can't admit being wrong about Ciriaco.

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In Response to Re: Time to Bench Salty:
    In Response to Re: Time to Bench Salty : This thread has really gotten old southpaw.  Salty is below average in just about everything except SLG and he SO four times more than he walks. I really don't get why people think Salty will improve after all this time, or should be a starter.  We traded for Victor because Tek started his decline in 2006, but even Jason was better than Salty.  Its now six years later and the catching position is even worse.  Whats wrong with people?    They can find a way to support Salty but can't admit being wrong about Ciriaco.
    Posted by craze4sox


    Not just SLG% and Ks, but also HRs, catcher RBIs, and CERA since April 25th.

    As for our catching position being worse, look again at the team's catching OPS since about 2004. This year is one of our best.
     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from craze4sox. Show craze4sox's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In Response to Re: Time to Bench Salty:
    In Response to Re: Time to Bench Salty : Not just SLG% and Ks, but also HRs, catcher RBIs, and CERA since April 25th. As for our catching position being worse, look again at the team's catching OPS since about 2004. This year is one of our best.
    Posted by moonslav59


    moon CERA?  It never has been "a reputable or well endorsed MLB Stat"  If you like Salty thats cool, he's a great guy but he has very little value in a trade, or to this team as a starting catcher sorry.
     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In Response to Re: Time to Bench Salty:
    In Response to Re: Time to Bench Salty : moon CERA REALLY?  It never has been "a reputable or well endorsed MLB Stat"  If you like Salty thats cool but he has very little value in a trade, or to this team as a starting catcher sorry.
    Posted by craze4sox



    I say "CERA", but it is more encompassing than that one stat. Salty has clearly done better with our staff since the end of April, and yes, GMs do pay attention to these things, just as they have noticed less PBs and WPs per inning.

    To say Salty has "very little trade value" shows you are not looking at what other teams have behind the plate. Salty would be a huge improvement for about 10 MLB teams. There are other teams about to lose very good catchers to free agency. I'm sure Salty is better than their back-up. There is probably another 10 teams that would like Salty vs RHPs, and most of the rest as a capable back-up.
     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from craze4sox. Show craze4sox's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In Response to Re: Time to Bench Salty:
    In Response to Re: Time to Bench Salty : I say "CERA", but it is more encompassing than that one stat. Salty has clearly done better with our staff since the end of April, and yes, GMs do pay attention to these things , just as they have noticed less PBs and WPs per inning. To say Salty has "very little trade value" shows you are not looking at what other teams have behind the plate. Salty would be a huge improvement for about 10 MLB teams. There are other teams about to lose very good catchers to free agency. I'm sure Salty is better than their back-up. There is probably another 10 teams that would like Salty vs RHPs, and most of the rest as a capable back-up.
    Posted by moonslav59


    Ok maybe I was a bit harsh due to all this AGon, Beckett talk sorry.  I'm going to take a break and absorb everything the next few days.
     
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