Time to Bench Salty

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    I've never once discounted Fangraphs and have even cited it several times on this thread if I remember correctly. I'm not cherry picking stats. We just disagree. I'm citing major stats. Extremely important stats. defensive WAR, number of runs cost defensively compared to other catchers in mlb....etc and reputable websites like ESPN and Fangraphs. I'm discussing his defense, and have said several times that his HR numbers are very impressive. Yes, the data is a little different in some areas but the most significant defensive numbers are bad everywhere.  I'm citing possibly the most important defensive stats one could cite for a catcher. And now it's gotten to a point where I just don't understand?

    This has become a useless discussion. I thnk a cogent analysis should be sufficient and I have provided just that.

    \


    You still never answered why you chose to go away from using fangraphs, when it was always the one you used for Ellsbury. 

    It's OK to use ESPN, and they are a reputable source, but it just seems that you are searching around for only the worst data on Salty. If one source uses 100 catchers to compare and he looks bad, you'll use 100 or 82, but then you don't even take the time to expand the ESPN list to the same criteria you used for other judgements. This kaes me curious as to your motives and methodology. Staying consistent with your judgement framework seems, to me, to be more straightforward and convincing.

    Much data shows salty is not a good defensive catcher. It appears ESPN may use league CERA as part of their formula for dWAR, since it is listed on their spreadsheet. I have to question their methodology, but you are free to continue using league comparative CERA in a way that even you admit is flawed.
     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    Moon, I did a google search for "Saltalamachia CERA 2012" and there he was #1 on Google at an ESPN website, almost 2/3 of a run worse than any other qualifying catcher. I don't have an ulterior motive. I'm not cherry picking stats. I have cited fangraphs several times. I have not said your numbers are irrelevant. And BTW, I used the qualifying catcher numbers and then the entire sample of catchers which was around 100. Salty was #82 out of 100. and 15th out of 15.

    Why are my numbers less significant than yours? Why are my numbers being criticized when I have not criticized yours? Both are reputable sources. And dWAR, DRS, CS percentage are all extremely important defensive metrics. CERA is significant for Salty even in comparison to Tek and Shoppach on the same team. Let alone being league worst in that category among qualifying catchers on ESPN. 

    BTW, it is common for catchers to have much fewer PB and WP after their first year of mlb level catching. Look at Teks early numbers and VMArt...etc. It is expected. It usually drops substantially after the first year in mlb. 
     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    How good could Salty's CERA be when he is the starting catcher for a pitching staff like ours? All of our SP have ERAs over 5, at least the ones with the highest number of innings pitched. That makes CERA a stat that cannot be seriously looked at to judge a catcher's worth.
     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    Funny, pumpise, That Salty's CERA is lower than any of our starters ERA...Your right though, when you have 5 bad starters the CERA is not goiung to be good. To Saltys credit thought, he did lower it since the end of April whisle all the starters era went up...
    And for the last time, CS% is at  the bottom of the barrel when it comes to defensive stats on a catcher. That stat has more to do with the pitchers than the catchers, ie; pitch thrown, location of pitch, slow delivery, bad at holding runners on, and I could go on...
    Salty should get his final arb year to see if his keeps improving or has plateaued. Lavarnway is NOT ready yet and his situation is not as urgent as Saltys as Salty only has 1 year left before hes a FA. We have the 24yr old Lavarnway for a number of years before that happens. The only way salty shouldnt be the starter in 2013 is if they make a trade that nets them a solid return back. Not some middle of the road prospects...
     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    I don't think Salty is getting worse defensively. I just don't think he will get much better defensively. 2 years ago he was in the minors fighting a supposed case of the YIPS. Then traded for 2 A ball level guys. Most of baseball discounts his defensive ability. To me the sample size is fairly large even in mlb. He is never going to be good defensively. That is the likelihood I'm projecting.



    I agree that he may never become a top 10 defensive catcher, but there are many examples of late-blooming catchers, probably more so than any other position, because it is the most difficult position to become good at all the many facets of the job.

    I hate to keep using Vtek, but he is a very familiar catcher with Sox fans.
    Here are some numbers from his early career:

    '97-'00 (to age 28) 2746 inn  57 PB  58 WP  277 SB  99 CS  (26%)   28th out of 34 in TZ*
    '97-'01 (to age 29) 3172 inn  60 PB  69 WP 328/117 (26%)                 24th out of 31 in TZ*
    '97-'02 (to age 30)  4237 inn 70 PB  88 WP 409/148 (27%)                 28th out of 39 in TZ*
    * fangraphs limits the sample sizes used by 500 innings caught, so I got the nearest to a sample size of 30 or more.

    On the  fangraph WAR or "value" page, they have Vtek listed at:
    age 28: -8.0 (24th out of 33)
    age 29: -7.0 (32nd out of 43)
    age 30: -3.0 (17th out of 27)

    Now, look at the total innings caught, realize that Salty's innings were spread out over more years, and that he even trained and played at 1B for some time. Again, look at total innings caught and age when comparing him to VTek:

    '07-'10 (to age 25) 1604 inn  10 PB  65 WP   144 SB/ 37 CS (20%)    -6 TZ   (25th out of 43)
    '07-'11 (to age 26) 2460 inn  36 PB 106 WP  227 SB/ 74 CS (25%)   -6 TZ   (25th out of 42)
    '07-'12 (to age 27) 3199 inn  42 PB 129 WP  297 SB/ 90 CS (23%)   -6 TZ  (21st out of 32)
    '11-'12 (age26-27) 1595 inn  32 PB  64 WP  153/53 (26%)

    fangraph WAR defensive value:

    age 25: -16.2  (36/39)
    age 26:  -19.1 (36/37)
    age 27:  -20.4 (29/30)
    26-27:     -4.2  (20/31) These are his numbers since becoming a FT catcher with Boston.


    By innings:
    As you can see, when Vtek reached 3100 innings, they were mostly as a FT starter and he was 29. He was 24th out of 31 catchers in TZ. When salty reached 3100 innings, he was 27 and had his innings spread mostly Pt over 6 years. He placed 21st out of 32 MLb catchers in TZ...actually better than VTek. VTek had allowed more PBs, but Salty more WPs. Vtek had a 26% CS rate to Salty's 23%.

    By age:
    If you look at Salty's FT numbers over the past 2 years, he placed 20th out 31 in dWAR on fangraphs (ages 26-27). Those are the ages VTek first started catching in MLB.  Salty was at -16.2 prior to 2011 and -4.2 after. While that still is a negative, it showed a big improvement over his scattered numbers. VTel also was in negative territory at age 27, and was actually still negative overall until age 30.

    If you look at just the numbers, using your criteria, you'd have benched VTek based on his defense. It took Vtek until age 30-31 to get on the plus side on defense.

    Hitting:
    He also had only 1 season batting over .270 our of his first 5 and had 3 OPS under .730 in his first 5. Salty has been over .737 both years in Boston.

    Yes, VTek had a  better OBP by age 27 by about 25 points, but he has 39 Hrs in just about 800 PAs: VTek had 27 in about 800 PAs at age 27. Here's a comparison of both at ages 26-27 with Boston:

    VTek:  .264  27  109  (.324/.459/.783)
    Salty:  .233  39  109  (.287/.460/.747)

    Remember, that at age 28, VTek dipped to .248 (.730 OPS).





     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    Fact is, Southpaw, that there are very few good stats to judge how good a catcher is defensively. There are too many variables. On my team I do want a guy who can deny a stolen base from time to time and who doesn't make a lot of errors-recognizing the shortcomings of those stats too, along with CERA.
     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    I agree, Pumpise, that I too would like Salty to have a better CS%, but also realize that the Sox' pitchers have never been all that good at holding runners on and have some of the slowest deliveries Ive seen. So I can understand why Salty hovers around 20%.
     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    Shoppach was at 34% this year with the Sox. And there has been more emphasis this year in keeping runners close by the pitching staff, at least more than in past years when they were ignored (Tito's policy).

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    If Salty had the league CS rate of 26%, he'd have 7 more SBs right now. While that is significant, it pales in comparison to the rest of what a catcher does for a team and in particuar their staff. The kid is on pace for about 20 less PBs than 2011.

    I'm not sure how significant this is, but about half of all PAs against Shoppach was with Buch, Beck, and Lest (in that order), while those 3 amount to less than a 1/3rd of Saltys PAs caught.

    Salty caught  (3200 PAs)
    Lester 409
    Doub   406
    Buch    302
    Cook    280
    Beck    243
    Mora    216
    Acev    210
    Bard    166

    Shoppach (1530 PAs)
    Buch   308
    Beck   252
    Lest    190
    Doub   152
    Bard     94
    Mora    93


     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

    How good could Salty's CERA be when he is the starting catcher for a pitching staff like ours? All of our SP have ERAs over 5, at least the ones with the highest number of innings pitched. That makes CERA a stat that cannot be seriously looked at to judge a catcher's worth.



    Yes, but the same staff had a 3.77 ERA with Shoppach catching.  How do you explain that?  Luck?
     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    What's the reason for Lava's 8% Cs rate? (11 SB and 1CS in aboiut 95 innings)

    He had a 32% rate in the minors.
     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    Small sample size Moon. Lavarnway just had a pretty horrible play at the plate. Did he not see the ball or what? He doesn't look like the same player he was last year. From what little I've seen he is 2 strikes down on many AB after 2 pitches. They are nibbling with him and getting it over. He seems to look for a pitch and if he doesn't get it he doesn't swing. Maybe it's time to take the ball to RF more or swing on the first pitch a little. 

    The team just looks so bad it's incredible.
     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedSoxKimmi. Show RedSoxKimmi's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:
    [QUOTE]
    Yes, but the same staff had a 3.77 ERA with Shoppach catching.  How do you explain that?  Luck?

    [/QUOTE]

    Like you, I wonder what effect Varitek might have had on this staff.  I know he wouldn't have been able to pull of miracles, but I do think that he could have helped both the pitchers and Salty with his development.

    I don't like the idea of a Salty/Lav platoon for next year any better than I liked it for this year.

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedSoxKimmi. Show RedSoxKimmi's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    If Salty had the league CS rate of 26%, he'd have 7 more SBs right now. While that is significant, it pales in comparison to the rest of what a catcher does for a team and in particuar their staff. The kid is on pace for about 20 less PBs than 2011.

    I'm not sure how significant this is, but about half of all PAs against Shoppach was with Buch, Beck, and Lest (in that order), while those 3 amount to less than a 1/3rd of Saltys PAs caught.

    Salty caught  (3200 PAs)
    Lester 409
    Doub   406
    Buch    302
    Cook    280
    Beck    243
    Mora    216
    Acev    210
    Bard    166

    Shoppach (1530 PAs)
    Buch   308
    Beck   252
    Lest    190
    Doub   152
    Bard     94
    Mora    93


    Pitchers also  have a rSB stat at Fangraphs, based on how good they are at controlling the running game.  Here is how the pitchers listed rate:

    Beckett -2
    Doubront -1
    Lester 0
    Bard 0
    Aceves 0
    Cook +1
    Morales +1
    Buccholz +1


    Pitchers with a -2 rSB account for 7.6% of Salty's PAs caught, pitchers with a -1 rSB account for 12.7%, pitchers with 0 rSB account for 24.5%, and pitchers with +1 account for 24.9% .

    For Shoppach, -2 rSB account for 16.5% of PAs caught, -1 rSB account for 9.9%, 0 rSB account for 18.6 %, and +1 rSB account for 26.2%.

    I realize that you didn't include all the pitchers and all the PAs caught, but based on the listed pitchers' numbers, I don't think you can say that the pitchers are hurting Salty's CS numbers anymore than they are hurting Shoppach's.

    Yet, Salty has a -3 rSB while Shoppach is at +2.   That's about a 1/2 game swing.  Not nearly as important as other aspects of a catcher's defense, but it is still a factor.

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    So far this year Salty has cost his team 9 runs as compared to an average defensive catcher and Shoppach has saved his teams 5 runs. A swing of 14 runs probably results in at least 3 games won usually. A significant factor in which catcher to keep.
     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In response to RedSoxKimmi's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    If Salty had the league CS rate of 26%, he'd have 7 more SBs right now. While that is significant, it pales in comparison to the rest of what a catcher does for a team and in particuar their staff. The kid is on pace for about 20 less PBs than 2011.

    I'm not sure how significant this is, but about half of all PAs against Shoppach was with Buch, Beck, and Lest (in that order), while those 3 amount to less than a 1/3rd of Saltys PAs caught.

    Salty caught  (3200 PAs)
    Lester 409
    Doub   406
    Buch    302
    Cook    280
    Beck    243
    Mora    216
    Acev    210
    Bard    166

    Shoppach (1530 PAs)
    Buch   308
    Beck   252
    Lest    190
    Doub   152
    Bard     94
    Mora    93


    Pitchers also  have a rSB stat at Fangraphs, based on how good they are at controlling the running game.  Here is how the pitchers listed rate:

    Beckett -2
    Doubront -1
    Lester 0
    Bard 0
    Aceves 0
    Cook +1
    Morales +1
    Buccholz +1


    Pitchers with a -2 rSB account for 7.6% of Salty's PAs caught, pitchers with a -1 rSB account for 12.7%, pitchers with 0 rSB account for 24.5%, and pitchers with +1 account for 24.9% .

    For Shoppach, -2 rSB account for 16.5% of PAs caught, -1 rSB account for 9.9%, 0 rSB account for 18.6 %, and +1 rSB account for 26.2%.

    I realize that you didn't include all the pitchers and all the PAs caught, but based on the listed pitchers' numbers, I don't think you can say that the pitchers are hurting Salty's CS numbers anymore than they are hurting Shoppach's.

    Yet, Salty has a -3 rSB while Shoppach is at +2.   That's about a 1/2 game swing.  Not nearly as important as other aspects of a catcher's defense, but it is still a factor.

    Thanks for the legwork. I didn't mean to imply anything with my list, but just wanted to show that the variables are different. I am certain Shppach has a better arm than Salty.

    Boom, I know Lava's sample size is small, but the SBs vs him were clearly almost all on the pitcher, just as most of Salty's are as well... and Shopps.

     

    [/QUOTE]

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In response to RedSoxKimmi's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:
    [QUOTE]
    Yes, but the same staff had a 3.77 ERA with Shoppach catching.  How do you explain that?  Luck?

    [/QUOTE]

    Like you, I wonder what effect Varitek might have had on this staff.  I know he wouldn't have been able to pull of miracles, but I do think that he could have helped both the pitchers and Salty with his development.

    I don't like the idea of a Salty/Lav platoon for next year any better than I liked it for this year.

     

    [/QUOTE]


    I doubt VTek could have added 3mph to Beckett's fastball.
    I doubt he could have helped Bard and Aceves in their new roles, although he had an excellent history with both.
    I am certain he'd have done better than Salty, and perhaps much better, but my whole point has been that Salty has improved from pre-April 25 to post April 25.

    I see a 27 year old catcher improving with the staff, imroving greatly on reducing PBs and WPs, and improving on his OPS, and then I see fans saying it is time to pull the plug.

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from expitch. Show expitch's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    Small sample size Moon. Lavarnway just had a pretty horrible play at the plate. Did he not see the ball or what? He doesn't look like the same player he was last year. From what little I've seen he is 2 strikes down on many AB after 2 pitches. They are nibbling with him and getting it over. He seems to look for a pitch and if he doesn't get it he doesn't swing. Maybe it's time to take the ball to RF more or swing on the first pitch a little. 

    The team just looks so bad it's incredible.


    Boom, his bat looks surprisingly slow. Perhaps the pitchers are doing that to him. My guess is that teams have a book on him from last year in Boston, from ST, and from scouts checking on him in AAA.
    It looks to me that he is being retired a majority of the time when he makes contact by pitches in and up. He is late bringing his hands through the ball. And he tries to hit through a locked left hip. I doubt that the young man simply has a slow bat. Period. And I also doubt that pitchers will continue to retire him at the current rate for a terribly long stretch. He is no dummy. He will have to develop an inside-out swing or lay off the high inside pitch or unlock his hip. Preferably all three.
    Pitchers continue to do what works until a batter breaks the pattern. I look for that to happen fairly soon for Lava. I hope so.
     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from expitch. Show expitch's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    Small sample so far, yes, and there is a month to go. But Lavarnway is doing poorly at the plate, and he is not as good, yet, as Salty on defense.
    The upshot is that the catching situation has become somewhat more complicated. If Lavarnway was giving the Sox good reasons to think that he is the Man, trading Salty would be coming into focus more clearly. Lava may yet provide those reasons, and Salty might bring a good return. 
    Then there is the question of Ortiz. He's likely to be resigned, but if he isn't Lava is not showing that he'd be the logical candidate to take over at DH. 
    I still have doubts about whether the Sox will go with a Salty/Lava platoon next year, and I have serious reservations about it on morale grounds. I lean to the belief that either Salty or Lava will be traded in the off-season, and that a vet will be brought in as backup. But I wouldn't bet a dime on which one will be traded.
     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    No Papi: both probably stay.

    Yes Papi: one will likely be traded.
     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    With the way Lav has played so far, it wouldnt at all surprise me if they give him another year in AAA. Hes still only 24 and didnt start catching until his sophmore year in college. He obviously needs more time to play and develop.
    That way the Sox can grab a RHH catcher this winter to BU Salty. We can also see where saltys progression takes him in his final arb year as well as give Lav another year.
    This, IMO, would be the best way to do it from what Ive seen so far. They dont have to trade either one this winter.
     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    No they don't, and in a perfect world they wouldn't, but this team has so many weaknesses going forward, and there are 15-20 teams looking to upgrade at the catcher position. Since we have 2 that many teams would want at least one of them, I think we will trade Salty, get a good vet back-up on a 1-2 year deal, and hope Lava is ready for the 2014 push.
     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    Happy to see Lava go yard. I hope this lifts some pressure off him.
     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from expitch. Show expitch's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    Salty walked three more times tonight. He's been walking more recently. Pitchers are obviously leery of him, for good reason. If he continues to show discipline at the plate not only will his OBP improve but he'll get better pitches to hit.  Earlier in the season he was walked in two critical situations, but lately he's simply drawing walks. Period. He made a nice turnaround on defense early in the season. If he is now making progress on discipline at end of the season, maybe there will be nice bookends.  He may suffice yet -- for some team.
    Lavarnway had a tough night at the plate. In his last AB, on 1 and 0, he took a flat curve on the inner third of the plate. That is the kind of pitch he needs to jump on. He won't see many of them in the majors. He takes a lot of pitches that look hittable.  He continues to bite on pitches up and in.
    He looks easy to pitch to. He will probably figure it out. I hope he noticed what Montero did last night with an inside-out swing. Montero tried it again tonight but without good results. But it's in his weaponry. Lavarnway could use it, at least to show that he can't be pitched in with impunity.
     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In response to expitch's comment:

    Salty walked three more times tonight. He's been walking more recently. Pitchers are obviously leery of him, for good reason. If he continues to show discipline at the plate not only will his OBP improve but he'll get better pitches to hit.  Earlier in the season he was walked in two critical situations, but lately he's simply drawing walks. Period. He made a nice turnaround on defense early in the season. If he is now making progress on discipline at end of the season, maybe there will be nice bookends.  He may suffice yet -- for some team.
    Lavarnway had a tough night at the plate. In his last AB, on 1 and 0, he took a flat curve on the inner third of the plate. That is the kind of pitch he needs to jump on. He won't see many of them in the majors. He takes a lot of pitches that look hittable.  He continues to bite on pitches up and in.
    He looks easy to pitch to. He will probably figure it out. I hope he noticed what Montero did last night with an inside-out swing. Montero tried it again tonight but without good results. But it's in his weaponry. Lavarnway could use it, at least to show that he can't be pitched in with impunity.



    To me, Salty and his OBP is his biggest weakness...not CS%. I'm encouraged as well by his recent trend, although a small sample size it is.
     
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