Time to Bench Salty

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    I think Lavarnway has had plenty of time in AAA ball. He has not shown the ability to hit mlb pitching yet and now is the time to find out if that is going to happen. Or not. I'm very surprised given his history but he has not given us much indication yet that he will hit in mlb. I'd play him the rest of this year and see how spring training goes and hopefully progress is made. If he starts out in AAA again fine but it would be nice to see where he is right now, or months ago as i wanted, when he was fresher and just coming into his hot streak rather than beat to dust from catching all year in his first year of doing that level of catching work.

    I still have confidence in Lavarnway but sometimes even guys with top hitting numbers bust. He doesn't have to be a great hitter to cut it in mlb as a catcher but he has to do much better than he has recently. Maybe next spring he gets it together.

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    I think Lavarnway has had plenty of time in AAA ball. He has not shown the ability to hit mlb pitching yet and now is the time to find out if that is going to happen. Or not. I'm very surprised given his history but he has not given us much indication yet that he will hit in mlb. I'd play him the rest of this year and see how spring training goes and hopefully progress is made. If he starts out in AAA again fine but it would be nice to see where he is right now, or months ago as i wanted, when he was fresher and just coming into his hot streak rather than beat to dust from catching all year in his first year of doing that level of catching work.

    I still have confidence in Lavarnway but sometimes even guys with top hitting numbers bust. He doesn't have to be a great hitter to cut it in mlb as a catcher but he has to do much better than he has recently. Maybe next spring he gets it together.

     

    I think he can and will begin to hit well in the bigs, but he has to make some adjustments. The main thing is, he needs to play nearly everyday next year. I'm not sure he "learns" much by playing everyday, as you pointed out " beat to dust". Ideally, I think catching 55-60 games vs LHPs and maybe 5-15 vs some RHPs and DHing another 80 games (vs RHPs) would help him break into the MLB catching role slowly, but keep his bat "fresh" all year long. This would mean Papi walks.

    Assuming Papi stays, we should trade Salty. or I think Lava has to start in AAA in order to play 100+ games in 2013. The alternative could be to trade Lava to a contending team in serious need of an upgrade at catcheror a rebuilding team looking for a nice catcher prospect.

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    Big HR for Lava. I hope this gets him going and builds his confidence.

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Maybe Salty could be a great player if he only played 85-90 games instead of 100+.

     

    Maybe if he wasn't worn out by being a catcher, could he be a great HR hitter as a DH or 1Bman?

    Here's how Salty has done after a day off:

    1-3 2B

    1-4 HR

    0-3

    2-4 HR

    1-4

    0-3

    1-4

    0-1

    1-3 2B (BB)

    2-4 2B

    0-2 (2BB) Had played 8 straight days before 2 days off.

    2-4 HR

    3-4 HR

    0-4

    0-4

    2-4 HR (BB)

    0-4

    1-3 (BB)

    0-3 (BB)

    1-5 HR (3 RBI vs Yanks)

    1-3 (BB) after All Star break

    0-1

    1-4 HR

    0-2 (2BB)

    1-3 BB

    1-4

    0-3

    1-4

    1-3

    1-2 HR (2BB)

    2-5

    0-3

    0-3 (BB)

    0-4

    0-3

    3-3 (HR, 3B)

    Total 30- 120 .250 

    9 HRs  in 120 ABs

    He has 16 HRs in 238 ABs in games without the day before off.

    50 for 238 or .210

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    [/QUOTE]


     

    Follow this up with a 2 for 4 game (1 R, 1 RBI, and a big 9th inning 2B)

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    Salty is not going to be a 280-300 hitter...I believe he can and will be more like a 230-250 maybe .260 avg. . Hes going to be streaky, but all he needs to work on is that OBP. when hes in a little funk that extra walk or even seeing 8-10 pitches in an AB can really help. One more year should give us all we need to know.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from ma6dragon9. Show ma6dragon9's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    This team is in rebuild, I see no problem starting the season with Salt/Lav and Ortiz being elsewhere. Time to turn the page I think. We saw this year what Ortiz is: he can still hit, but any injury will keep him out for an extended period of time, and running the bases is all it takes to set something amiss. What was Wang's injury? Did he break something in his foot or was it his achilles too? At any rate, it took the guy a few years to get right. I could see this effecting Ortiz for the rest of his career to be honest. If he commits to rehabbing this offseason and building up strength, he's probably fine...but I don't know if Ortiz is going to be dsoing that at this point of his career. He's no longer playing for any kind of significant contract, and I just don't see him devoting himself to getting in the best shape he can at this age and point in his career. Would you rather have Ortiz for an injury plagued 80 games or let two younger players share DH/C? There is also some flexibility at 1B now too. I'd go into full rebuild mode and let more kids have a shot at it. Who knows what will happen with them? I have a fairly good idea of what Ortiz offers, and at this point, with THIS team, it doesn't really offer a whole lot.

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from bosoxmal. Show bosoxmal's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    I was happy to read what Salty had to say about coming back after his injury. Make contact! He admits he was looking to send every pitch into orbit, and now recognizes that approach will get him an early retirement.

    We may be able to go into 2013 with these two after all!

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    Salty will be eligible for free agency after 2013, so if we we wait to extend him and he has a big year, he will be costly (though we can now afford that). If he has an off year, we will have been glad we did not extend him.

    I agree, if Papi walks, keeping both Salty and Lava makes a lot of sense.

    Salty: 100 games as a catcher vs most RH's starters. Some late inning PH and catcher duties on days he does not start, and maybe 5-10 games at DH.

    Lava: 60+ games as a catcher (most vs LH'd starters but a few ve RH'ers) and 80+ games at DH vs RH'd starters.

    The rest of the DH PAs can be used to rotate and rest others, such as Nava, Middlebrooks, Pedey, Gomez or whoever plays 1B for us next year, and maybe Ross if we extend him.

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    I'll do an updated CERA report in a few days.

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    Id love to see than Moon. I bet it has improved...

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    It was about a half run better at the end of August.

    (from April 25th to end of August as compared to pre-April 25, 2012)

    It may have gotten a little worse, but with this staff...

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    If it improved at all with the way this staff has pitched this year then thats saying something...Next year should Paint a clearer picture...

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In response to southpaw777's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    If it improved at all with the way this staff has pitched this year then thats saying something...Next year should Paint a clearer picture...

     

    [/QUOTE]


    OK, I ran the numbers again...

    Sidenote: CERA is not supposed to be used this way. It is best used by comparing pitcher by pitcher- one by one- and how they do with each catcher.

    These are the aggregate numbers:

     

    Salty from day 1 of 2011 to April 25th of 2012:

    Inn: 953 / ERs: 517   CERA  4.88

     

    Salty from April 26th to September 16:

    Inn: 713 / ERs: 341   CERA  4.30

     

    Shopp & Lava from 4/26 to 9/16:

    Inn: 450 / ERs 220   CERA  4.40

     

    Remember, this includes the 8 inning/19 ER game on 8/31 and the 12 inn/ 10 ER game of August 25th.  I know everyones CERA would be better if you could thow out the worst 2 games, but here are Salty's post April 25th numbers minus those 2 bad games:

    693 inn/ 312 ERs  4.05 CERA

     

    Salty has improved his CERA since April 25th.

    Salty has more than cut in half his PB + WPs from 2011 to 2012.

    Salty has improved his OPS from .737 to .775 from '11 to '12.

    He's 27.

    At age 27 & 28, VTek was leading MLB in PBs.

    At age 28, VTek hit .248 with an OPS of .730.

    We all know that serious growth is possible after the age of 27 & 28, especially at the catcher position.

     

     

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    Perhaps Salty's best recent stat line is:

     

    6 BBs in his last 25 PAs.

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    Hey Moon,

    Havent seen expitch here in a while...have u seen him on any other threads?

    The 6BB in 25PA's for Salty is very encouraging...

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    Not sure where ex is. Maybe he got frustrated with the new format.

     

    From the other Salty thread:

    So far this year, the average MLB team catchers (all catchers on each team) have this combined line:

     

    .248  19  73

    OBP .320

    SLG .400

    OPS .719

     

    To me, anything over .245 15  60 (.300/.450/.750) by a guy who only plays 65-70% of the games is above average for a catcher. I expect salty to put up numbers like this next year:

    .240  30  90  (.300/.500/.800)

    This would be gravy on top of gravy.

    The average MLB team catchers have allowed 11 PBs and 46 WPs in under 1,100 innings.m  In 790 innings, Salty has allowed 6 PBs & 23 WPs. This is way way way below the league average. If you pro-rate Salty's numbers to 1100 innings, he'd have these totals: 8 PBs & 32 WPs.  That is 17 below the league total of PB+WP average!

    Also, 98 SBs and 34 CS.  Salty: 77 SBs & 17 CS. Pro-rate to 1100 innings: 107 SBs & 24 CS. This basically amounts to 9-10 more SBs allowed by Salty vs the league average, but any sane baseball fan knows that the Red Sox are notorious at not holding runners close to the bases.

    Even if you take the SB numbers at face value, 10 more SBs vs 17 less PBs+WPs is still a net gain for Salty over the league average.

     

    The silliest thing around is softy's notion that Salty is no better than a back-up ML catcher.

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    It was interesting to see the look on BV's face when Lavarnway hit the 2 run double today. My impression is that they really want Lavarnway to work out. They are extremely hopeful because if his numbers end up next year like Bill James projected for this year, they have a decent #6 or 7 hitter available from the catcher position. And a cheap one at that with 5 years of controlability.

    He is clearly not giving us a lot of confidence though this year. He looks real stiff to me defensively but he can throw runners out better than Salty IMO and I bet he calls a game better already. The stiffness is worse than I had hoped though. His biggest weakness to me is dealing with balls in the dirt. 

    I just have faith in his hitting mechanics. And his history of adjusting offensively at each level. The minor league numbers have been outstanding and unless the bat is slower than I had projected ( heh, it doesn't look all that fast right now! ) I think he makes it. Taking that ball to Right CF was big today. That is what he needs to do to get out of this funk. He showed the ability to do that in the minors. He's not going to get many middle in FB thrown to him in mlb. He can't just wait for that pitch or keep swinging at off speed pitches which might look like middle in FB. He needs to anticipate that his best pitches to hit for a while are going to be on the outside part of the plate. 

    I've heard all the right things being said by Salty but it's easy to say the right things and much harder to do them. I'm still banking on Lavarnway and I bet the Redsox are also. Even for next year.

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    ...I bet he [Lava] calls a game better already....

    Salty has improved greatly in this area after April. I see no indication that Lava is already better than Salty in game-calling, but I hope he learns quicker than Salty did.

     

     

    ...I've heard all the right things being said by Salty but it's easy to say the right things and much harder to do them. I'm still banking on Lavarnway and I bet the Redsox are also. Even for next year.

     

    I think the Sox are looking to Lava as well. I believe Salty will be traded this winter along with Ellsbury- perhaps in a package.

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from makonikyman. Show makonikyman's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

     

    ...I bet he [Lava] calls a game better already....

    Salty has improved greatly in this area after April. I see no indication that Lava is already better than Salty in game-calling, but I hope he learns quicker than Salty did.

     

     

    ...I've heard all the right things being said by Salty but it's easy to say the right things and much harder to do them. I'm still banking on Lavarnway and I bet the Redsox are also. Even for next year.

     

    I think the Sox are looking to Lava as well. I believe Salty will be traded this winter along with Ellsbury- perhaps in a package.

     

    [/QUOTE]

    A nice article today by Peter Abrhams about Lava. There is soooo much more to catching than cera, or PB/wp, and even throwing out runners. The biggest thing is knowing the tendancies of opposing hitters, AND your pitcher. Getting in a pitchers head, when he doesn't have is best stuff. That, to me is where I believe Lava has a big edgeover Salty. The Red Sox know that in will do their evaluating this offseason. I believe both will split time next yr between catching and 1b. At which time I believe Lava will win out, Salty will walk, and Lava becomes the full time catcher in 2014 and beyond. With Swihart knocking on the door.

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from don444. Show don444's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In response to bosoxmal's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I imagine the brass is getting tired of Salty's strike outs. I can't remember anyone this bad who kept his job this long. It's like having a pitcher in the lineup. Time to hand the job over to Lavanway. Nothing to lose at this point.

    [/QUOTE]


    Yes bench Salty and put in Lavanway who's BA is about 125.... Great idea.....Nothing to lose at this point . Maybe Lavanway can jack his BA up to 130 by season end.Now who's like a pitcher batting? 25+ HRS Salty or 125 BA Larvanway???

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    The biggest thing is knowing the tendancies of opposing hitters, AND your pitcher. Getting in a pitchers head, when he doesn't have is best stuff. That, to me is where I believe Lava has a big edgeover Salty. 

     

    With all due respect, I see no evidence that Lava, after just 20 games in the bigs this year, knows more about opposing batters than Salty, or that he is able to "get inside a pitcher's head" better than Salty.

    He may be better, but I seriously doubt he is right now or will be next year either. Salty has come a long way since last year and even April of this year. Forget CERA and other numbers and metrics: watch the games. He is a different catcher now than just a few short months ago.

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    I hardly doubt Lav knows the players in the league, or his own pitchers for that matter, better than Salty does. So I cant see how he could possibly call a better game than a guy who has much more knowledge of the pitchers and the players around the league.

    You have to be on a certain personal level with the pitchers to know what makes them tick and I just dont think 20 games would be enough time for Lav to surpass Salty in that category as well...

    Like Moon said, probably not even next year either. It takes more time than 20 games or even a full year. Im not saying he cant do it, just not at this point.

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In response to southpaw777's comment:
    [QUOTE]

     

    I hardly doubt Lav knows the players in the league, or his own pitchers for that matter, better than Salty does. So I cant see how he could possibly call a better game than a guy who has much more knowledge of the pitchers and the players around the league.

    You have to be on a certain personal level with the pitchers to know what makes them tick and I just dont think 20 games would be enough time for Lav to surpass Salty in that category as well...

    Like Moon said, probably not even next year either. It takes more time than 20 games or even a full year. Im not saying he cant do it, just not at this point.

     

    [/QUOTE]


    It took VTek several years. It took Salty until about April 25th of this year to start showing marked improvement in this area. I know Yale is a fine university, but...

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    Salty may be learning quickly, but I'm not sure how good a teacher he is for Lava.

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    Now that he is a year removed and there is no chance that he will want to return as a player, why not hire Varitek to coach Lavarnway? I would do it immediately after the season ends and have them work together all winter. One area where Varitek excelled was in preparing for games, knowing the opposing batters. I still think that Lavarnway will hit in the bigs.

     

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