Time to Bench Salty

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    Bump for reference source.

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    Reposted...

     

    CERA Update:

    Salty 4/2011-4/25/12: 953 Inn 4.88 CERA

    Salty 4/26/12-10/3/12: 774.2 Inn 4.43 CERA

     

    Shopp up to 4/25/2012: 63 Inn 4.14 CERA

    Shopp 4/26/12-trade: 293.1 Inn 3.93 CERA

     

    Lava 4/2011-4/25/12: 26.2 Inn 4.39 CERA

    Lava 4/26/12-10/3/12: 229 Inn 5.74 CERA

    As you can see, Salty did improve his CERA after 4/25/12 by 0.45 even though our staff is much worse than the one we had last year.

    Note: CERA should not be used in this manner to make definitive judgements, since some catchers have larger or smaller sample sizes with the various pitchers. I will give a pitcher by pitcher breakdown soon.

    The 2012 season totals:

    Salty   852 inn  4.82 CERA

    Shopp 370 inn  3.77 CERA

    Lava   219 inn  5.75 CERA

    The only way CERA should be used is to compare catchers from the same team against each other by looking pitcher by pitcher and comparing the numbers while noting large sample size differences and/or tiny sample sizes.

     fromLet's look pitcher by pitcher for the final 2012 (Inn) CERA (note: some tiny sample sizes): 

     with    all              Salty          Shopp        Lava

    Lester    4.82   (107) 5.62    (49) 3.70     (49) 4.01

    Buch     4.56      (76) 6.30    (78) 3.28     (36) 3.79

    Doub      4.86  (124) 4.95    (32) 4.18      (5) 7.20

    Beck      5.23    (58) 4.47    (58) 5.46     (11) 7.94

    Cook      5.65    (77) 5.28     (5) 3.60      (12) 8.76

    Aceves   5.36   (53) 4.92    (15) 4.11     (16) 8.04

    Morales  3.77   (52) 2.96    (22) 4.91      (3) 6.79

    Bard       6.22   (36) 5.05    (21) 5.91      (2) 27.00

    Atch       1.58   (37) 2.41        (9) 0.00      (4) 0.00

    Padilla    4.50   (26) 5.47    (20) 2.75      (4) 6.75

    Melan     6.20   (26) 9.35       (8) 2.35    (11) 1.59

    Dice-K    8.28  (27) 5.93      (5) 7.20     (13) 13.50

    Taz         1.43  (31) 1.40     (12) 1.50    (12) 1.50

    Albers    2.29   (22) 2.86   (17) 1.56

    Miller     3.35   (23) 3.91     (11) 3.97     (6) 0.00

    Mort      3.21   (29) 2.79       (7) 2.70     (6) 2.84

     

    Breaking it down:

    4- Salty way worse than the norm: Lester, Buchholtz, Padilla, Melancon

    3- Salty worse than the norm: Atchison, Miller, Albers

    1- Salty worse but close: Doubront

    1- Salty better but close: Tazawa

    4- Salty better than norm: Beckett, Cook, Aceves, Mortensen

    3- Salty way better than the norm: Morales, Bard, Dice-K

     

    Salty ended up better with 8 pitchers and worse with 8 pitchers.

    Better than I expected when the season began.

     

    Salty's 4.43 CERA after April 25, 2012 is really quite remarkable when you consider the staff we had this year, which included pitchers pitching out of their comfort roles (Aceves & Bard), pitchers losing velocity or pitch variety (Lester, Beckett and others), pitchers getting hurt (Bailey, Buch, Tazawa, Dice-K, Lackey, Hill, Padilla, Atchison and others), and pitchers getting traded (Beckett, Albers & Bowden).

     

    Salty has improved on handling the staff.

    Salty has greatly reduced his Passed Balls and Wild Pitches.

    Salty placed about in the middle the pack in catcher OPS (.742) & 3rd in C'er HRs.         (BTW, a .742 OPS is better than 22 teams' catcher OPS.)

    His bad CS% is partially the staff's fault and only amounted to about 8-9 more SBs than the league norm over the season.

    Salty is still about 2 or more years younger than VTek was when he became the CERA master (at about age 30-31).

    Those who pick on Salty have no idea just how bad MLb catching is these days. Salty is a plus over most team's total catching output. He is not a weakness, but has had more posts bashing him than he deserved.

     

    Some key final numbers on Salty and the state of MLB catching these days:

    Salty's .742 OPS ranks him 14th out of the top 30 ML catchers by PAs in 2012.                

    9th in SLG .454. 

    25th in OBP at .288. 

    3rd in HRs with 25.

    However, when you compare these numbers vs MLB team catching numbers:

    Salty's...

    .742 OPS is better than 21 team catcher OPS.

    .454 SLG is better than 25 team catcher SLG.

    His .288 OBP is actually better than 5 team OBP and .001 away from it being 6 teams.

    Folks, 13 teams have a team catcher BA below .228! 16 are below .240.

     

    On fielding:

    Fangraphs has a fielding ranking involved in their value determination. Salty placed  13th out of 30 with a -0.3 number.

    Only 10 catchers with 600+ innings caught have less Passed Balls than Salty, and 4 of then caught significantly less innings than Salty's 852.

    Only 8 catchers allowed less than 23 WPs this year, and 5 of them had less innings.

    As bad as Salty's CS% was this year, there were 4 catchers worse than him and several more pretty close. 

     

    CERA:

    Improved his CERA by about 0.40 after April 25th from where it was from 2011 up to 4/25/12. This with several pitchers hurt, traded or out of their comfort roles.

     

     

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    Good to put all these numbers at the end here so we can do a quick reference and compare what hes doing this year. Thanks Moon.

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    Lavarnway struck out in 4 out of 5 AB yesterday. He obviously was learning the wrong things under Salty's tutelage!

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    Lavarnway struck out in 4 out of 5 AB yesterday. He obviously was learning the wrong things under Salty's tutelage!




    Lavarnway needs to stop catching and put on a 1b mit and DH as well. His best asset was his offense and since he started catching full time its been non-existent. Vasquez is already much better than him and should pass him on the depth chart this year.

     

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

     

    Lavarnway struck out in 4 out of 5 AB yesterday. He obviously was learning the wrong things under Salty's tutelage!

     




    Lavarnway needs to stop catching and put on a 1b mit and DH as well. His best asset was his offense and since he started catching full time its been non-existent. Vasquez is already much better than him and should pass him on the depth chart this year.

     

     



    i agree. it's time to move him, especially with the emergence of Vasquez and Swihart not too far behind that.

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    Lavarnway struck out in 4 out of 5 AB yesterday. He obviously was learning the wrong things under Salty's tutelage!



    I wasn't aware Salty is in AAA tutoring Lava right now.

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from ma6dragon9. Show ma6dragon9's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    Sheesh.

    People wanted to dump Salty for Lav.

    Now people want to dump Lav for Vazquez.

    There must be some 17 year old out there right now who people will want to dump Vazquez for in 3-4 years.

    Salty for Captain 2016!!! (30 years old seems appropriate)

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from soxnewmex. Show soxnewmex's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    Lava two for four tonight w/a double.  Give the guy a chance, wow, ridiculous.  Second game of the year.

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    Lavarnway isn't through. He will warm up.

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    Lavarnway isn't through. He will warm up.



    boom, were all your posts here deleted?

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    I didnt say to trade Lavarnway. I stated that I think his offense is his asset and having him catch full time was/is taking away from that. He may have got an award last year, but when I watch him with my own eyes I see a slow, lumbering guy with questionable mechanics behind the plate.

    Vasquez is a much better defensive catcher than Lavarnway and it seems more of a natural position for him where is seems a little forced with Lav. Vasquez also has some pop in that bat too.

    Id rather have Lavarnway concentrate 100% on hitting. We have no power bats in our system. The closest thing is Lav and his bat is being stifled by leaving him at a position that, IMO, he should not and wont be playing full time anyway.

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

     

    Lavarnway isn't through. He will warm up.

     



    boom, were all your posts here deleted?

     



    No. I can go back into that identity any time. 

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    Moon, I stand by everything I've said about Salty. I really do think he is not just defensively challenged but one of the worst defensive catchers in the game. He does hit HR though and that is a tremendous asset. Sometimes HR come in bunches though so we don't know what we are going to get. 

    Like with SS, I'd rather have a strong defensive catcher, ideally with some pop and OBP. To me, that is the ideal. A Buster Posey, Joe Mauer, Yadier Molina.

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    To me, if Lavarnway is not a catcher he is of relatively little value. The guy has never played 1st base in his life and people think now is a good time for him to start playing 1st. His bat is probably not strong enough to be a DH or the OF, where he would be a major defensive liability.

    For Lavarnway to make it he needs to be Mike Piazza / Ryan Doumit type catcher, hopefully somewhere in between those 2 guys!

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    If this helps you any Moon.

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

     

    Lavarnway isn't through. He will warm up.

     



    boom, were all your posts here deleted?

     

     



    No. I can go back into that identity any time. 

     



    I couldn't find your posts on this thread where you had the defensive data from baseball reference. I thought maybe they were deleted.

    Maybe they were on another thread?

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

     

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

     

    Lavarnway isn't through. He will warm up.

     



    boom, were all your posts here deleted?

     

     



    No. I can go back into that identity any time. 

     

     



    I couldn't find your posts on this thread where you had the defensive data from baseball reference. I thought maybe they were deleted.

     

    Maybe they were on another thread?



    They probably are on another thread. I didn't delete them. It isn't worth going into again IMO. I hope Salty does well. We need him this year. I still think Lavarnway will resurrect his career but it isn't happening any time soon so Salty is our best bet right now.

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

     I hope Salty does well. We need him this year.

    The 4 BBs in 15 PAs is encouraging.

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    This thead is almost to 1000!

    Whodathunk?

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    Was softy the one who said he loved Salty?

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    Salty showing better plate discipline this year. He will have his bad games, but certainly looking much better. HR and 2 doubles last night. If he keeps this up, he will setting himself up for a nice contract.

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    Salty showing better plate discipline this year. He will have his bad games, but certainly looking much better. HR and 2 doubles last night. If he keeps this up, he will setting himself up for a nice contract.



    ...and I'll be saying, "I told you so".

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from youkillus. Show youkillus's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    I predicted a Moon-Salty man crush! it's the time of the season...

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In response to youkillus' comment:

    I predicted a Moon-Salty man crush! it's the time of the season...



    13 months ago I was upset we hadn't traded him.

     
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