In response to BMav's comment:
In response to moonslav59's comment:
No, you are very wrong.
There was an 18 run game on April 17th, but even if you start with April 16th, Salty has been better post that pre.
I did a complete pitcher by pitcher study on this thread. I did not selectively choose just a few. I did caution that some pitchers had very unbalanced sample sizes, and realistically only the pitchers who have somewhat large and equal sample sizes with 2 catchers should be considered, but either way you look at it, Salty's comparative numbers look much better when going one by one with the pitchers than overall.
I believe that I am NOT very wrong on the pre April 17th vs. post April 17th CERA. Here is what I come up with.....
Pre 17th Red Sox CERA--4.67 inn-952 runs-491
Post 17th Red Sox CERA--4.70 inn-968.6 runs--506
So, Salty's CERA has gotten worse since April 17th 2012 on.
I was counting April 17th as pre not post, but your point is well taken.
However, the more recrnt you look at Salty's CERA, the better it gets.
I had started a lengthy reply to this post, but my compouter froze and I lost all the data. I do keep this:
Post 4/25/12: 923.2/461 4.49
Pre 4/25/12: 997/439 4.86
There is a pretty significant improvement there, but more importantly, it was during a time when our staff was worse. (2012's staff was way worse than 2010-2011.) That should be part of the equation.
As for comparing him to pitchers, I can't find where you do this. However, as you said you did do the numbers. What they showed on pages 3 and 22 on this thread is that Salty got beaten head to head with Varitek 10-2 comparing pitchers. Huge edge Varitek. And Shopach beat Salty in a pitcher to pitcher comparison 10-6, including by huge margins with two key pitchers[Lester-Buch]. See how big samples can allow an overall CERA to be very accurate?
Only if the percent of innings caught for each pitcher is releatively even. In this case they were not:
Salty: Shopp warped ratios
The most warped one in Shopp's favor?
I don't know the up to date numbers for this year, but because its such small samples not sure a lot can be learned, other then its a fairly even break down of the pitchers innings. No Maddux type thing. So head to head in 2011 and 2012 its pretty ugly for Salty.
Let's look pitcher by pitcher for 2012 (Inn) CERA (note: some tiny sample sizes):
Sox Salty Shopp Lava
Lester 4.94 (102) 5.89 (49) 3.70 (49) 4.01
Buch 4.22 (74) 5.47 (78) 3.28 (36) 3.79
Doub 4.86 (124) 4.95 (32) 4.18 (5) 7.20
Beck 5.23 (58) 4.47 (58) 5.46 (11) 7.94
Cook 5.65 (77) 5.28 (5) 3.60 (12) 8.76
Aceves 5.40 (51) 4.97 (15) 4.11 (15) 8.04
Morales 3.77 (52) 2.96 (22) 4.91 (3) 6.79
Bard 6.22 (36) 5.05 (21) 5.91 (2) 27.00
Atch 1.60 (37) 2.45 (9) 0.00 (4) 0.00
Padilla 4.69 (25) 5.68 (20) 2.75 (3) 9.00
Melan 6.44 (24) 9.99 (8) 2.35 (11) 1.59
Dice-K 7.68 (25) 4.68 (5) 7.20 (13) 13.50
Taz 1.50 (29) 1.55 (12) 1.50 (12) 1.50
Albers 2.29 (22) 2.86 (17) 1.56
Miller 3.23 (28) 3.74 (11) 3.97 (6) 0.00
Mort 2.95 (27) 2.33 (7) 2.70 (3) 3.00
Salty's CERA is better than the team CERA with 6 of the 16 pitchers with 20 or more total IP in 2012 (Beckett, Aceves, Morales, Bard, Dice-K & Mortensen). He is close to the team number with 4-6 others (Doubront, Cook, Aceves, Tazawa, Miller & Albers). He was significantly worse with 5 of 16 (Lester, Buch, Atchison, Padilla, Melancon).
Salty has been in the big leagues since 2007. He started 373 games before the start of this season. Shoot, Kelly Shoppach and David Ross had less then 500 starts themselves. Not really buying the young pup thing. I think just as good a case could be made that Ross is new to the staff and should be the one with the handicap.
Salty became a FT starter in 2012. His other starts were spread out, and he was even used at 1B one year quite a bit.
I get your point about Ross being the newbee, and I nver expected Salty to do better than him this year, but I did think Salty would keep improving, but the sample size is still too small to know if that is happening. Plus, this is a different staff with different coaching, so there are many variables involved here.
Thanks for taking the time to do some research.