Re: Time to Bench Salty
posted at 5/5/2013 8:16 PM EDT
Whats makes April 25th 2012 a turning point? Why that date? He came to the team in 2010. I bet you Salty's CERA is actually worse if you begin comparing pre April 17th 2012 and post April 17th 2012. If so, would that mean Salty is getting worse?
No, you are very wrong.
There was an 18 run game on April 17th, but even if you start with April 16th, Salty has been better post that pre.
Plus, it's not about overall CERA. I can't stress that enough. Go back and look at the pitcher by pitcher numbers over the years Salty has been here. For the most part, pitchers have improved year by year with Salty.
Our staff was not as good in 2012 as it was in 2011 with other catchers as well.
As for pitcher vs. pitcher CERA data, it is prefferable. However, unless the usage is blatantly unbalanced[Greg Maddux gets a personal catcher], the usage numbers will ussually even out over a 3 year period. In other words, Salty likely catches good pitchers and bad pitchers fairly evenly. So overall numbers are not a bad way to look at things.
This is totally false. Salty caught Wake exclusively, and VTek caught Beckett nearly exclusivley.
Choosing to pick a few pitchers numbers can be misleading, so unless we can see all the pitchers numbers with Salty catching vs. the other catchers, the total numbers is the way to go. Do you have all the numbers? How do you get them?
I did a complete pitcher by pitcher study on this thread. I did not selectively choose just a few. I did caution that some pitchers had very unbalanced sample sizes, and realistically only the pitchers who have somewhat large and equal sample sizes with 2 catchers should be considered, but either way you look at it, Salty's comparative numbers look much better when going one by one with the pitchers than overall.
Three years of numbers starts to become a significant sample size. And the margins are very significant. Combined with the eye test[my eyes at least], Salty sucks on defense and is hurting the team.
The numbers do not support your eyes.
Salty cut his WP + PB per IP nearly in half from 2010-11 to 2012. Even if you throw out Wak'es games, he still improved by nearly 50%.
There was a study that showed Salty was one of the best pitch framers in MLB. Did your eyes catch that?
Salty is horrible at throwing out runners, and that is what most casual fans see.
Salty has not been great behind the plate over the 3 years sample size, but it is his first 3 full time seasons in MLB, so not looking at improvements made over that time period is being short-sighted.
Since you are so keen on overall CERA, how do you explain away this?
CERA with VTek 3.57
CERA with Salty 4.62
CERA with Shop + Lava 4.77 (+1.20 over 2011 non Salty catchers)
CERA with Salty 4.84 (+0.20 from 2011)
If you really want to blame the 0.20 rise in CERA from 2011 to 2012 on Salty not improving, instead of on the staff, that's your right, but I see things vastly in a different way.
Salty has improved in his game calling skills, his pitch blocking skills, and other defensive skills, except for throwing. I'm not saying his is top 15, but he is improving. Remember, VTek led the league in PBs for two years in a row at the same age as Salty is right now. His CERA was also not great at those ages either.