Time to Bench Salty

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    Using the overall split is not useful.



    That's debatable.  When the sample gets this big and this consistent it's hard to dismiss.  It's an indisputable empirical fact that over the last 3 years Red Sox pitchers, on average, give up over one earned run per game more when Salty is catching.

     

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from BMav. Show BMav's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    OPS

    Ross-.943
    Salty-.718

    Can we at least agree that Ross is the better option and start playing him 60-40% the next few weeks and see how it goes?

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    Using the overall split is not useful.

     



    That's debatable.  When the sample gets this big and this consistent it's hard to dismiss.  It's an indisputable empirical fact that over the last 3 years Red Sox pitchers, on average, give up over one earned run per game more when Salty is catching.

     

     



    When one catcher catches some starters much more than another, the overall numbers are skewed. Here's an example:

                             Catcher A                      Catcher B

    w/Pitcher A   9 IP  3 ER (3.00)       27 IP  10 ER  (3.30)

    w/Pitcher B   27 IP 18 ER (6.00)      9 IP  7 ER  (7.00)

    Overall:  36 IP  21 ER  (5.25)          36 IP  17 ER (4.25)

     

    Because catcher A had to catch the bad pitcher more, and even though he got better results from him, he ends up with a worse overall CERA by a full run!

    Catcher A is better with teh staff than catcher B because he gets better results from more pitchers (all of them in this limited example).

    I seriously doubt Salty will get better results than Ross, especially with new pitchers to the team, but my point has been that he has been improving with the staff since 2011 and the start of 2012 (to 4/25/12). His numbers after 4/25/12 are remarkably better than beforehand.

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In response to BMav's comment:

    OPS

    Ross-.943
    Salty-.718

    Can we at least agree that Ross is the better option and start playing him 60-40% the next few weeks and see how it goes?



    The sample sizes are small, so let's look deeper (before today's game):

    '13    vs RHPs  vs LHPs

    Ross  .732   .880

    Salty .794   .404

     

    To be fair, D Ross has done better vs RHPs than LHPs the last few years combined, but Salty does very well vs righties.

    Out of 32 MLB catchers with 40+ PAs vs RHPs, Salty places 14th.

     

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from BMav. Show BMav's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

     

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    Using the overall split is not useful.

     



    That's debatable.  When the sample gets this big and this consistent it's hard to dismiss.  It's an indisputable empirical fact that over the last 3 years Red Sox pitchers, on average, give up over one earned run per game more when Salty is catching.

     

     

     



    When one catcher catches some starters much more than another, the overall numbers are skewed. Here's an example:

     

                             Catcher A                      Catcher B

    w/Pitcher A   9 IP  3 ER (3.00)       27 IP  10 ER  (3.30)

    w/Pitcher B   27 IP 18 ER (6.00)      9 IP  7 ER  (7.00)

    Overall:  36 IP  21 ER  (5.25)          36 IP  17 ER (4.25)

     

    Because catcher A had to catch the bad pitcher more, and even though he got better results from him, he ends up with a worse overall CERA by a full run!

    Catcher A is better with teh staff than catcher B because he gets better results from more pitchers (all of them in this limited example).

    I seriously doubt Salty will get better results than Ross, especially with new pitchers to the team, but my point has been that he has been improving with the staff since 2011 and the start of 2012 (to 4/25/12). His numbers after 4/25/12 are remarkably better than beforehand.




     

    Whats makes April 25th 2012 a turning point? Why that date? He came to the team in 2010. I bet you Salty's CERA is actually worse if you begin comparing pre April 17th 2012 and post April 17th 2012. If so, would that mean Salty is getting worse?

     

    As for pitcher vs. pitcher CERA data, it is prefferable. However, unless the usage is blatantly unbalanced[Greg Maddux gets a personal catcher], the usage numbers will ussually even out over a 3 year period. In other words, Salty likely catches good pitchers and bad pitchers fairly evenly. So overall numbers are not a bad way to look at things. Choosing to pick a few pitchers numbers can be misleading, so unless we can see all the pitchers numbers with Salty catching vs. the other catchers, the total numbers is the way to go. Do you have all the numbers? How do you get them?

     

    Three years of numbers starts to become a significant sample size. And the margins are very significant. Combined with the eye test[my eyes at least], Salty sucks on defense and is hurting the team.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    Its getting very close to Lavarnway time. Salty is middle of the pack among AL catchers, his K rate is horrible, and his defense is not very good at all. 

     

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from BMav. Show BMav's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In response to moonslav59's comment:



    The sample sizes are small, so let's look deeper (before today's game):

     

    '13    vs RHPs  vs LHPs

    Ross  .732   .880

    Salty .794   .404

     

    To be fair, D Ross has done better vs RHPs than LHPs the last few years combined, but Salty does very well vs righties.




    And after today Ross's splits are....

    vs. lefty----.880
    vs. righty---1.013

    And Salty's....

    vs. lefty----.404
    vs. righty---.783

    And as you said, Ross has had a bit of a reverse split lately. So who do I prefer against righties? Ross!

     

    As for offense and small samples, Ross has better stats over a 1-8 year sample. Pick any group of years inbetween. He is just better. A lot better.

     

     

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from dgalehouse. Show dgalehouse's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    Hitting Salty for Ciriaco today , when all we needed was a base hit ,  was not one of Farrell 's better decisions. 

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    Whats makes April 25th 2012 a turning point? Why that date? He came to the team in 2010. I bet you Salty's CERA is actually worse if you begin comparing pre April 17th 2012 and post April 17th 2012. If so, would that mean Salty is getting worse?

    No, you are very wrong.

    There was an 18 run game on April 17th, but even if you start with April 16th, Salty has been better post that pre.

    Plus, it's not about overall CERA. I can't stress that enough. Go back and look at the pitcher by pitcher numbers  over the years Salty has been here. For the most part, pitchers have improved year by year with Salty.

    Our staff was not as good in 2012 as it was in 2011 with other catchers as well.

     

    As for pitcher vs. pitcher CERA data, it is prefferable. However, unless the usage is blatantly unbalanced[Greg Maddux gets a personal catcher], the usage numbers will ussually even out over a 3 year period. In other words, Salty likely catches good pitchers and bad pitchers fairly evenly. So overall numbers are not a bad way to look at things.

    This is totally false. Salty caught Wake exclusively, and VTek caught Beckett nearly exclusivley.

     

    Choosing to pick a few pitchers numbers can be misleading, so unless we can see all the pitchers numbers with Salty catching vs. the other catchers, the total numbers is the way to go. Do you have all the numbers? How do you get them?

    I did a complete pitcher by pitcher study on this thread. I did not selectively choose just a few. I did caution that some pitchers had very unbalanced sample sizes, and realistically only the pitchers who have somewhat large and equal sample sizes with 2 catchers should be considered, but either way you look at it, Salty's comparative numbers look much better when going one by one with the pitchers than overall.

     

    Three years of numbers starts to become a significant sample size. And the margins are very significant. Combined with the eye test[my eyes at least], Salty sucks on defense and is hurting the team.

    The numbers do not support your eyes.

    Salty cut his WP + PB per IP nearly in half from 2010-11 to 2012. Even if you throw out Wak'es games, he still improved by nearly 50%.

    There was a study that showed Salty was one of the best pitch framers in MLB. Did your eyes catch that?

    Salty is horrible at throwing out runners, and that is what most casual fans see.

    Salty has not been great behind the plate over the 3 years sample size, but it is his first 3 full time seasons in MLB, so not looking at improvements made over that time period is being short-sighted.

     

    Since you are so keen on overall CERA, how do you explain away this?

     

    2011:

     CERA with VTek 3.57

    CERA with Salty  4.62

     

    2012:

    CERA with Shop + Lava  4.77  (+1.20 over 2011 non Salty catchers)

    CERA with Salty  4.84  (+0.20 from 2011)

     

    If you really want to blame the 0.20 rise in CERA from 2011 to 2012 on Salty not improving, instead of on the staff, that's your right, but I see things vastly in a  different way.

    Salty has improved in his game calling skills, his pitch blocking skills, and other defensive skills, except for throwing. I'm not saying his is top 15, but he is improving. Remember, VTek led the league in PBs for two years in a row at the same age as Salty is right now. His CERA was also not great at those ages either.

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In response to BMav's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:



    The sample sizes are small, so let's look deeper (before today's game):

     

     

    '13    vs RHPs  vs LHPs

    Ross  .732   .880

    Salty .794   .404

     

    To be fair, D Ross has done better vs RHPs than LHPs the last few years combined, but Salty does very well vs righties.

     




    And after today Ross's splits are....

     

    vs. lefty----.880
    vs. righty---1.013

    And Salty's....

    vs. lefty----.404
    vs. righty---.783

    And as you said, Ross has had a bit of a reverse split lately. So who do I prefer against righties? Ross!

     

    As for offense and small samples, Ross has better stats over a 1-8 year sample. Pick any group of years inbetween. He is just better. A lot better.

     

     



    He's also never been a FT catcher, but the numbers do look good when he does play.

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In response to BMav's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:



    The sample sizes are small, so let's look deeper (before today's game):

     

     

    '13    vs RHPs  vs LHPs

    Ross  .732   .880

    Salty .794   .404

     

    To be fair, D Ross has done better vs RHPs than LHPs the last few years combined, but Salty does very well vs righties.

     




    And after today Ross's splits are....

     

    vs. lefty----.880
    vs. righty---1.013

    And Salty's....

    vs. lefty----.404
    vs. righty---.783

    And as you said, Ross has had a bit of a reverse split lately. So who do I prefer against righties? Ross!

     

    As for offense and small samples, Ross has better stats over a 1-8 year sample. Pick any group of years inbetween. He is just better. A lot better.

     

     



    I don't know if Ross can maintain his numbers if he plays regularly, but I think its time he had a chance. Salty's act is getting old. #2 in the AL in catcher K's for catchers with more than 50 ABs. 

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    Since you are so keen on overall CERA, how do you explain away this?

     

    2011:

     CERA with VTek 3.57

    CERA with Salty  4.62

     

    2012:

    CERA with Shop + Lava  4.77  (+1.20 over 2011 non Salty catchers)

    CERA with Salty  4.84  (+0.20 from 2011)

     



    I explain it like this:

    2012 Shoppach 3.77 Salty 4.84 Lavarnway 5.75

    This does nothing to dispel the notion that Salty was significantly, as in more than a run, worse than both Tek and Shoppach.  He was.  It just shows that Lavarnway was even worse than Salty, which is understandable considering it was his first extended stretch as a major league catcher.

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    Since you are so keen on overall CERA, how do you explain away this?

     

    2011:

     CERA with VTek 3.57

    CERA with Salty  4.62

     

    2012:

    CERA with Shop + Lava  4.77  (+1.20 over 2011 non Salty catchers)

    CERA with Salty  4.84  (+0.20 from 2011)

     

     



    I explain it like this:

     

    2012 Shoppach 3.77 Salty 4.84 Lavarnway 5.75

    This does nothing to dispel the notion that Salty was significantly, as in more than a run, worse than both Tek and Shoppach.  He was.  It just shows that Lavarnway was even worse than Salty, which is understandable considering it was his first extended stretch as a major league catcher.



    Lavarnway has never been given a chance to be the everyday catcher. Its unrealistic to expect him to excel playing in just 63 games over two years. You know better than to try to evaluate him based on this. Give him a shot to do it every day for 3-4 months. Then we can make some educated judgements about him.

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    I wasn't trying to rip Lavarnway, just trying to respond to the question moon raised about 2012 numbers. 

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

    I wasn't trying to rip Lavarnway, just trying to respond to the question moon raised about 2012 numbers. 



    Incidentally, looking more at Salty's stats, he is striking out an amazing 40% of the time! He can't even make contact any more. And if you look at AL catchers with at least 25 PAs this year (yeah, small sample size) his WAR of -0.1 ranks 21st out of 26 catchers. 

    I would give him a little more time-like two weeks. If he cannot improve I would sit him down on the pine and make him a backup to Ross or else bring up Lavarnway and try to get rid of him.

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from soxnewmex. Show soxnewmex's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    Everyone likes Salty, but he's just not a very good player.  Throw out all the stats you want to support your case, but when he's coming to the plate as a batter in a big situation, or when he's behind the plate as a catcher, he just doesn't inspire confidence.  You expect a strike-out  or a "wild pitch" or a throw going into the outfield, and you won't have to wait very long to see one of those things happening either.  And, I don't know, you just wish someone else were playing in his stead, whether it be Ross or Lavarnway or the dude catching down in AA.

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In response to soxnewmex's comment:

    Everyone likes Salty, but he's just not a very good player.  Throw out all the stats you want to support your case, but when he's coming to the plate as a batter in a big situation, or when he's behind the plate as a catcher, he just doesn't inspire confidence.  You expect a strike-out  or a "wild pitch" or a throw going into the outfield, and you won't have to wait very long to see one of those things happening either.  And, I don't know, you just wish someone else were playing in his stead, whether it be Ross or Lavarnway or the dude catching down in AA.



    Stats reflect what happens on the field- in real life MLB games.

    I'm not trying to say Salty is a great hitter or fielder, but your claim that he doesn't produce in "big situations" is not based on fact.

    2012 Sox players Late & Close (50+ PAs)

    1) Pedroia  .786

    2) C Ross   .768

    3) Salty     .725

    4) AGon     .702

    5) Ortiz     .682

    6) Aviles   .604

    7) Ells      .544

    8) Nava   .479

     

    If you want to judge him by his 12 PAs this year in late & close situations, fine, but he's not as bad as you guys think he is. He's a catcher. His offense is better than about half the starting catchers in MLB. His fielding is up for debate, but it has improved.

    Late & Close are Plate Appearances in the 7th or later with the batting team tied, ahead by one, or the tying run at least on deck.

     

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    Incidentally, looking more at Salty's stats, he is striking out an amazing 40% of the time! He can't even make contact any more. And if you look at AL catchers with at least 25 PAs this year (yeah, small sample size) his WAR of -0.1 ranks 21st out of 26 catchers. 

    Hid BB% went from 8.5% to 9.1%.

    BTW, fangraphs has him at +0.2 WAR (28th out of 47 catchers with 30+ PAs).

    Since Salty should only start vs RHPs, let's look at catcher numbers vs RHPs:

    38 catchers with 30+ PAs vs RHPs:

    Salty is 17th at .795

    He's 14th out of 32 with 40+ PAs. (7th out of 18 with 66+ PAs)

    Combine 2012 with 2013 vs RHPs, Salty places 13th in catcher OPS vs RHPs out of 37 catchers with 200+ PAs. 

     

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    Incidentally, looking more at Salty's stats, he is striking out an amazing 40% of the time! He can't even make contact any more. And if you look at AL catchers with at least 25 PAs this year (yeah, small sample size) his WAR of -0.1 ranks 21st out of 26 catchers. 

    Hid BB% went from 8.5% to 9.1%.

    BTW, fangraphs has him at +0.2 WAR (28th out of 47 catchers with 30+ PAs).

    Since Salty should only start vs RHPs, let's look at catcher numbers vs RHPs:

    38 catchers with 30+ PAs vs RHPs:

    Salty is 17th at .795

    He's 14th out of 32 with 40+ PAs. (7th out of 18 with 66+ PAs)

    Combine 2012 with 2013 vs RHPs, Salty places 13th in catcher OPS vs RHPs out of 37 catchers with 200+ PAs. 

     



    He is striking out 40% of the time this year. Furthermore, Ross has better numbers vs RHP than Salty-who is as you said, JUST 17th out of 38 catchers. Furthermore, Ross is better defensively and seems to handle the pitchers better. Its getting very close to time to remove Salty from the starting lineup against ANY pitcher.

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from BMav. Show BMav's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    No, you are very wrong.

    There was an 18 run game on April 17th, but even if you start with April 16th, Salty has been better post that pre.

    I did a complete pitcher by pitcher study on this thread. I did not selectively choose just a few. I did caution that some pitchers had very unbalanced sample sizes, and realistically only the pitchers who have somewhat large and equal sample sizes with 2 catchers should be considered, but either way you look at it, Salty's comparative numbers look much better when going one by one with the pitchers than overall.




    I believe that I am NOT very wrong on the pre April 17th vs. post April 17th CERA. Here is what I come up with.....

    Pre 17th Red Sox CERA--4.67   inn-952 runs-491

    Post 17th Red Sox CERA--4.70   inn-968.6 runs--506

     

    So, Salty's CERA has gotten worse since April 17th 2012 on.

     

    As for comparing him to pitchers, I can't find where you do this. However, as you said you did do the numbers. What they showed on pages 3 and 22 on this thread is that Salty got beaten head to head with Varitek 10-2 comparing pitchers. Huge edge Varitek. And Shopach beat Salty in a pitcher to pitcher comparison 10-6, including by huge margins with two key pitchers[Lester-Buch]. See how big samples can allow an overall CERA to be very accurate? I don't know the up to date numbers for this year, but because its such small samples not sure a lot can be learned, other then its a fairly even break down of the pitchers innings. No Maddux type thing. So head to head in 2011 and 2012 its pretty ugly for Salty.

     

    Salty has been in the big leagues since 2007. He started 373 games before the start of this season. Shoot, Kelly Shoppach and David Ross had less then 500 starts themselves. Not really buying the young pup thing. I think just as good a case could be made that Ross is new to the staff and should be the one with the handicap.

     

     

     

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In response to BMav's comment:

    As for comparing him to pitchers, I can't find where you do this.  



    Baseball-Reference shows the splits for each pitcher by catcher.  For example here are the 2013 splits for Buchholz.  Scroll down close to the end of the page:

    http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=buchhcl01&year=2013&t=p

     

     

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from BMav. Show BMav's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

    In response to BMav's comment:

     

    As for comparing him to pitchers, I can't find where you do this.  

     



    Baseball-Reference shows the splits for each pitcher by catcher.  For example here are the 2013 splits for Buchholz.  Scroll down close to the end of the page:

     

    http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=buchhcl01&year=2013&t=p

     

     



    So its in the pitchers stuff. I see. Thanks.

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    Incidentally, looking more at Salty's stats, he is striking out an amazing 40% of the time! He can't even make contact any more. And if you look at AL catchers with at least 25 PAs this year (yeah, small sample size) his WAR of -0.1 ranks 21st out of 26 catchers. 

    Hid BB% went from 8.5% to 9.1%.

    BTW, fangraphs has him at +0.2 WAR (28th out of 47 catchers with 30+ PAs).

    Since Salty should only start vs RHPs, let's look at catcher numbers vs RHPs:

    38 catchers with 30+ PAs vs RHPs:

    Salty is 17th at .795

    He's 14th out of 32 with 40+ PAs. (7th out of 18 with 66+ PAs)

    Combine 2012 with 2013 vs RHPs, Salty places 13th in catcher OPS vs RHPs out of 37 catchers with 200+ PAs. 

     

     



    He is striking out 40% of the time this year. Furthermore, Ross has better numbers vs RHP than Salty-who is as you said, JUST 17th out of 38 catchers. Furthermore, Ross is better defensively and seems to handle the pitchers better. Its getting very close to time to remove Salty from the starting lineup against ANY pitcher.

     



    17th out of 38 is better than half. 13th out of 37 vs RHPs is nearly top 3rd.

    I really like Ross, and when we got him, I thought Salty would be traded since Ross hits RHPs slightly better than lefties, but I am not sure Ross can sustain those numbers playing 65-80% of the games. If he can, I would certainly not argue with the swap, and I guess it can't hurt trying it out for a stretch, but zI think people here are jumping on Salty out of a need for a scape goat for a losing streak. 

    Salty certainly has weaknesses, and high K rates and poor CS rates are highly visible ones for a catcher. Many of the less visible skills have improved over his time here in Boston- that has been my main point throughout this thread.

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In response to BMav's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    No, you are very wrong.

    There was an 18 run game on April 17th, but even if you start with April 16th, Salty has been better post that pre.

    I did a complete pitcher by pitcher study on this thread. I did not selectively choose just a few. I did caution that some pitchers had very unbalanced sample sizes, and realistically only the pitchers who have somewhat large and equal sample sizes with 2 catchers should be considered, but either way you look at it, Salty's comparative numbers look much better when going one by one with the pitchers than overall.

     




     

    I believe that I am NOT very wrong on the pre April 17th vs. post April 17th CERA. Here is what I come up with.....

    Pre 17th Red Sox CERA--4.67   inn-952 runs-491

    Post 17th Red Sox CERA--4.70   inn-968.6 runs--506

     

    So, Salty's CERA has gotten worse since April 17th 2012 on.

    I was counting April 17th as pre not post, but your point is well taken.

    However, the more recrnt you look at Salty's CERA, the better it gets.

    I had started a lengthy reply to this post, but my compouter froze and I lost all the data. I do keep this:

    Post 4/25/12: 923.2/461  4.49

    Pre  4/25/12: 997/439  4.86

    There is a pretty significant improvement there, but more importantly, it was during a time when our staff was worse. (2012's staff was way worse than 2010-2011.) That should be part of the equation. 

    As for comparing him to pitchers, I can't find where you do this. However, as you said you did do the numbers. What they showed on pages 3 and 22 on this thread is that Salty got beaten head to head with Varitek 10-2 comparing pitchers. Huge edge Varitek. And Shopach beat Salty in a pitcher to pitcher comparison 10-6, including by huge margins with two key pitchers[Lester-Buch]. See how big samples can allow an overall CERA to be very accurate?

    Only if the percent of innings caught for each pitcher is releatively even. In this case they were not:

    Salty: Shopp warped ratios

    Cook  77:5

    Aceves 51:15

    Dice-K 25:5

    The most warped one in Shopp's favor?

    Buch 78:74

     

    I don't know the up to date numbers for this year, but because its such small samples not sure a lot can be learned, other then its a fairly even break down of the pitchers innings. No Maddux type thing. So head to head in 2011 and 2012 its pretty ugly for Salty.

     

    Let's look pitcher by pitcher for 2012  (Inn) CERA (note: some tiny sample sizes):

                 Sox          Salty             Shopp            Lava

    Lester  4.94    (102) 5.89   (49) 3.70   (49) 4.01

    Buch    4.22       (74) 5.47   (78) 3.28   (36) 3.79

    Doub    4.86    (124) 4.95   (32) 4.18     (5) 7.20

    Beck     5.23      (58) 4.47   (58) 5.46  (11) 7.94

    Cook     5.65      (77) 5.28    (5)  3.60  (12) 8.76

    Aceves  5.40     (51) 4.97  (15) 4.11  (15) 8.04

    Morales 3.77     (52) 2.96  (22) 4.91   (3) 6.79

    Bard      6.22     (36) 5.05  (21) 5.91   (2) 27.00

    Atch      1.60     (37) 2.45    (9) 0.00    (4) 0.00

    Padilla  4.69     (25) 5.68   (20) 2.75    (3) 9.00

    Melan    6.44    (24) 9.99    (8) 2.35   (11) 1.59

    Dice-K   7.68    (25) 4.68    (5) 7.20   (13) 13.50

    Taz         1.50   (29) 1.55   (12) 1.50   (12) 1.50

    Albers     2.29  (22) 2.86   (17) 1.56

    Miller      3.23  (28) 3.74   (11) 3.97  (6) 0.00

    Mort        2.95  (27) 2.33    (7) 2.70   (3) 3.00

     

    Salty's CERA is better than the team CERA with 6 of the 16 pitchers with 20 or more total IP in 2012 (Beckett, Aceves, Morales, Bard, Dice-K & Mortensen). He is close to the team number with 4-6 others (Doubront, Cook, Aceves, Tazawa, Miller & Albers). He was significantly worse with 5 of 16 (Lester, Buch, Atchison, Padilla, Melancon). 

     

    Salty has been in the big leagues since 2007. He started 373 games before the start of this season. Shoot, Kelly Shoppach and David Ross had less then 500 starts themselves. Not really buying the young pup thing. I think just as good a case could be made that Ross is new to the staff and should be the one with the handicap.

    Salty became a FT starter in 2012. His other starts were spread out, and he was even used at 1B one year quite a bit.

    I get your point about Ross being the newbee, and I nver expected Salty to do better than him this year, but I did think Salty would keep improving, but the sample size is still too small to know if that is happening. Plus, this is a different staff with different coaching, so there are many variables involved here.

    Thanks for taking the time to do some research. 

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    Salty's CERA taking another leap tonight.  Ross caught Webster's first start.

    It's a hard thing to explain, but it seems like whenever a Sox pitcher is really getting lit up, Salty is catching. 

     
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