Time to Bench Salty

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from BMav. Show BMav's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

    In response to BMav's comment:

     

    As for comparing him to pitchers, I can't find where you do this.  

     



    Baseball-Reference shows the splits for each pitcher by catcher.  For example here are the 2013 splits for Buchholz.  Scroll down close to the end of the page:

     

    http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=buchhcl01&year=2013&t=p

     

     



    So its in the pitchers stuff. I see. Thanks.

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    Incidentally, looking more at Salty's stats, he is striking out an amazing 40% of the time! He can't even make contact any more. And if you look at AL catchers with at least 25 PAs this year (yeah, small sample size) his WAR of -0.1 ranks 21st out of 26 catchers. 

    Hid BB% went from 8.5% to 9.1%.

    BTW, fangraphs has him at +0.2 WAR (28th out of 47 catchers with 30+ PAs).

    Since Salty should only start vs RHPs, let's look at catcher numbers vs RHPs:

    38 catchers with 30+ PAs vs RHPs:

    Salty is 17th at .795

    He's 14th out of 32 with 40+ PAs. (7th out of 18 with 66+ PAs)

    Combine 2012 with 2013 vs RHPs, Salty places 13th in catcher OPS vs RHPs out of 37 catchers with 200+ PAs. 

     

     



    He is striking out 40% of the time this year. Furthermore, Ross has better numbers vs RHP than Salty-who is as you said, JUST 17th out of 38 catchers. Furthermore, Ross is better defensively and seems to handle the pitchers better. Its getting very close to time to remove Salty from the starting lineup against ANY pitcher.

     



    17th out of 38 is better than half. 13th out of 37 vs RHPs is nearly top 3rd.

    I really like Ross, and when we got him, I thought Salty would be traded since Ross hits RHPs slightly better than lefties, but I am not sure Ross can sustain those numbers playing 65-80% of the games. If he can, I would certainly not argue with the swap, and I guess it can't hurt trying it out for a stretch, but zI think people here are jumping on Salty out of a need for a scape goat for a losing streak. 

    Salty certainly has weaknesses, and high K rates and poor CS rates are highly visible ones for a catcher. Many of the less visible skills have improved over his time here in Boston- that has been my main point throughout this thread.

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In response to BMav's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    No, you are very wrong.

    There was an 18 run game on April 17th, but even if you start with April 16th, Salty has been better post that pre.

    I did a complete pitcher by pitcher study on this thread. I did not selectively choose just a few. I did caution that some pitchers had very unbalanced sample sizes, and realistically only the pitchers who have somewhat large and equal sample sizes with 2 catchers should be considered, but either way you look at it, Salty's comparative numbers look much better when going one by one with the pitchers than overall.

     




     

    I believe that I am NOT very wrong on the pre April 17th vs. post April 17th CERA. Here is what I come up with.....

    Pre 17th Red Sox CERA--4.67   inn-952 runs-491

    Post 17th Red Sox CERA--4.70   inn-968.6 runs--506

     

    So, Salty's CERA has gotten worse since April 17th 2012 on.

    I was counting April 17th as pre not post, but your point is well taken.

    However, the more recrnt you look at Salty's CERA, the better it gets.

    I had started a lengthy reply to this post, but my compouter froze and I lost all the data. I do keep this:

    Post 4/25/12: 923.2/461  4.49

    Pre  4/25/12: 997/439  4.86

    There is a pretty significant improvement there, but more importantly, it was during a time when our staff was worse. (2012's staff was way worse than 2010-2011.) That should be part of the equation. 

    As for comparing him to pitchers, I can't find where you do this. However, as you said you did do the numbers. What they showed on pages 3 and 22 on this thread is that Salty got beaten head to head with Varitek 10-2 comparing pitchers. Huge edge Varitek. And Shopach beat Salty in a pitcher to pitcher comparison 10-6, including by huge margins with two key pitchers[Lester-Buch]. See how big samples can allow an overall CERA to be very accurate?

    Only if the percent of innings caught for each pitcher is releatively even. In this case they were not:

    Salty: Shopp warped ratios

    Cook  77:5

    Aceves 51:15

    Dice-K 25:5

    The most warped one in Shopp's favor?

    Buch 78:74

     

    I don't know the up to date numbers for this year, but because its such small samples not sure a lot can be learned, other then its a fairly even break down of the pitchers innings. No Maddux type thing. So head to head in 2011 and 2012 its pretty ugly for Salty.

     

    Let's look pitcher by pitcher for 2012  (Inn) CERA (note: some tiny sample sizes):

                 Sox          Salty             Shopp            Lava

    Lester  4.94    (102) 5.89   (49) 3.70   (49) 4.01

    Buch    4.22       (74) 5.47   (78) 3.28   (36) 3.79

    Doub    4.86    (124) 4.95   (32) 4.18     (5) 7.20

    Beck     5.23      (58) 4.47   (58) 5.46  (11) 7.94

    Cook     5.65      (77) 5.28    (5)  3.60  (12) 8.76

    Aceves  5.40     (51) 4.97  (15) 4.11  (15) 8.04

    Morales 3.77     (52) 2.96  (22) 4.91   (3) 6.79

    Bard      6.22     (36) 5.05  (21) 5.91   (2) 27.00

    Atch      1.60     (37) 2.45    (9) 0.00    (4) 0.00

    Padilla  4.69     (25) 5.68   (20) 2.75    (3) 9.00

    Melan    6.44    (24) 9.99    (8) 2.35   (11) 1.59

    Dice-K   7.68    (25) 4.68    (5) 7.20   (13) 13.50

    Taz         1.50   (29) 1.55   (12) 1.50   (12) 1.50

    Albers     2.29  (22) 2.86   (17) 1.56

    Miller      3.23  (28) 3.74   (11) 3.97  (6) 0.00

    Mort        2.95  (27) 2.33    (7) 2.70   (3) 3.00

     

    Salty's CERA is better than the team CERA with 6 of the 16 pitchers with 20 or more total IP in 2012 (Beckett, Aceves, Morales, Bard, Dice-K & Mortensen). He is close to the team number with 4-6 others (Doubront, Cook, Aceves, Tazawa, Miller & Albers). He was significantly worse with 5 of 16 (Lester, Buch, Atchison, Padilla, Melancon). 

     

    Salty has been in the big leagues since 2007. He started 373 games before the start of this season. Shoot, Kelly Shoppach and David Ross had less then 500 starts themselves. Not really buying the young pup thing. I think just as good a case could be made that Ross is new to the staff and should be the one with the handicap.

    Salty became a FT starter in 2012. His other starts were spread out, and he was even used at 1B one year quite a bit.

    I get your point about Ross being the newbee, and I nver expected Salty to do better than him this year, but I did think Salty would keep improving, but the sample size is still too small to know if that is happening. Plus, this is a different staff with different coaching, so there are many variables involved here.

    Thanks for taking the time to do some research. 

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    Salty's CERA taking another leap tonight.  Ross caught Webster's first start.

    It's a hard thing to explain, but it seems like whenever a Sox pitcher is really getting lit up, Salty is catching. 

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

    Salty's CERA taking another leap tonight.  Ross caught Webster's first start.

    It's a hard thing to explain, but it seems like whenever a Sox pitcher is really getting lit up, Salty is catching. 



    That's true... all the huge opp's nights are vs Salty. If you threw out his worst 10 games, the differential change would be much greater than with VTek, VMart, Ross, etc...

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    After 2 PAs tonight, his OBP is at .337. That's huge for him and a lot of catchers too. His OPS is .831.

    My guess is that after tonight, our combined catcher OPS will be one of the best in MLB.

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    Some interesting numbers on CERA.... (and opponent's OPS)

     

    Note:

    1) small sample sizes (7 or more IP)

    2) some tiny sample sizes (look at the tiny ones with one catcher)

    3) some wide innings differentials (in innings and results)

     

    Lester:

    w/Salty  (25.0) 3.24  .559

    w/Ross  (18.2)  3.38  .735

     

    Buchholz

    w/Salty (29.2) 2.12  .596

    w/Ross  (21.0) 0.86  .483

     

    Dempster

    w/Salty (21.2) 2.91  .544

    w/Ross  (2.95) 2.95  .713

     

    Doubront (before tonight's game)

    w/Salty (22.0) 6.14  .826

    w/Ross  (5.0)   3.60  .570

     

    Lackey

    w/Salty (11.0)  3.27  .645

    w/Ross    (4.1)  4.15  .760

     

    5 Starters:

    CERA: Salty 3- Ross 2

    Opp's OPS: Salty 3- Ross 2

     

     

    Aceves

    w/Salty (14.0)  9.00  1.100

    w/Ross  (3.2)    7.36  .813

     

    Mortensen

    w/Salty  (11.0)  4.09  .562

    w/Ross     (5.2)  3.18  .687

     

    Tazawa

    w/Salty  (9.0)  3.00  .654

    w/Ross   (5.1)  1.69  .673

     

    Uehara

    w/Salty  (7.2)  2.35  .564

    w/Ross   (6.0)  3.00  .857

     

    Bailey

    w/Salty  (8.1)  2.16  .641

    w/Ross   (4.0)  0.00  .000

     

    Wilson

    w/Salty  (8.0)  1.12  .691

    w/Ross   (3.2)  2.45  .718

     

    Miller

    w/Salty  (6.0)  3.00  .470

    w/Ross   (2.2)  3.38  .800

     

    Hanrahan

    w/Salty  (5.1)  11.81  1.150

    w/Ross   (2.0)   4.50   1.375

     

    Relievers:

    CERA- Salty 3- Ross 5

    OPS- Salty 6- Ross 2

     

    TOTAL:

    CERA: Salty 6- Ross 7

    OPS: Salty 9- Ross 4

     

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    And then we have this:

    Ross 2.72

    Varitek 3.57

    Shoppach 3.77

    Salty 2011 4.62 2012 4.84 2013 4.68

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    Using overall CERA numbers is highly uninformative. 

    There is certainly something very troubling going on when these huge runs allowed games all occur under Salty. His WP and PB rate this year is also up from 2012, after going down dramatically from 2011.

    I'm not as concerned about the 40% K rate as many here, especially since his BB% is up significantly. His .333 OBP coupled with the power is nice, but his CERA battle needs to be monitored closely.

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    ... and looking at some other overall numbers... in the context of our staff at the time...

     

    Opponent's OPS (PAs with pitchers)

    2013: .700 (Before tonight- Buch 117, Lest 102, Doub 102, Demp 85, Acev 73)

    2012: .779  (Doub 534, Lester 480, Buch 302, Cook 312, Beck 221)

    2011: .746  (Wake 624, Lester 610, Lackey 591, Aceves 243, Buch 238)

     

    2013: Ross (Demp 88, Buch 79, Lest 79, Uhe 25) Little time with Doubront/Aceves

    2012: Shop (Buch 308, Beck 225, Lest 190, Doub 151) Huge differential % with Buch

    2011: VTek (Beck 715, Acev 173, Lest 165, Albers 156) He was Josh's caddy. 

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    Using overall CERA numbers is highly uninformative. 



    Really?  Then why have you talked so many times about 'Salty's CERA' improving after April/12?

    And what great insights are you producing from your lengthy lists of comparisons?

    CERA is an inexact science, moon.  We're all muddling around trying to make sense of the numbers.  Don't pretend to be the great authority.

     

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    Using overall CERA numbers is highly uninformative. 

     



    Really?  Then why have you talked so many times about 'Salty's CERA' improving after April/12?

    Because it improved pitcher by pitcher enormously, and when you compare one catcher against himself at an earlier time in the season, the ratios of who he was catching remained pretty consistent and stable.

    When comparing 2 catchers on the same team by their overall CERAs, it is only fair if they both catch the same pitchers roughly at the same percent of the time. This has never been true with the Sox. We have nearly always used a personal caddy system that skewed the ratios wildly, thus making overall CERA a near useless stat.

    This year, John seems to be using a L-R platoon of the catcher position, so maybe this will change over the full season, but looking at the numbers so far, despite the innings caught differentials being less than previous years, there is still a wide disparity between Salty and Ross on who they have caught proportionally more and less. 

     

    And what great insights are you producing from your lengthy lists of comparisons?

    CERA is an inexact science, moon.  We're all muddling around trying to make sense of the numbers.  Don't pretend to be the great authority.

     




    I have  always said CERA is "flawed" and a highly "limited use" stat. I have not pretended to be an expert, but my opinion is that CERA is best used when you look at how each catcher does with individual pitchers (one by one). That is where the comparisons have less outside variable (less not perfectly equal). 

    Are you really saying that the fact that Salty does about the same or better with our pitchers one by one is less valuable information than the overall numbers that are skewed by Ross catching our better pitchers more often?

    Do you see any value in pitcher by pitcher CERA numbers?

    Look, I'm not presenting these numbers out of a hat. I used to use this same criteria when blasting Salty as a poor "pitcher's catcher" when looked at side by side with VTek. I wanted Salty traded over the previous 2 winters before this last one. The disparities between Salty and VTek pitcher by pitcher was horrible. The overall numbers were worse due to the fact that VTek was beckett's personal caddy, and Salty was Wake's.

    2011:

    Salty: 624 PAs with Wake.

    VTek: 53 PAs with Wake. 

    Salty: 52 PAs with Beckett. 

    VTek: 715 PAs with Beckett (almost 30% of all his PAs caught).

     

    CERA is just one indicator of how pitchers do with one catcher vs another on the same team. That's about all it's good for. That's very limited.

     

    I know Salty is not a great game caller, thrower, and possibly bad pitch blocker, but I do see improvement in the game-calling area both in my observations and with pitcher by pitcher comparisons between him and our other catcher. Ross was known as a very good catcher before coming here. I didn't expect Salty to beat him out in the CERA area. I did expect a small learning curve for Ross, but he has done a fantastic job so far, IMO. The fact that Salty is holding his own with most pitchers on our staff when compared to Ross, is encouraging to me, not discouraging. 

    The huge runs allowed games are frustrationg to watch, and the fact that Salty is always the catcher when it happens is troubling... very troubling.

    I do like Salty's improved BB% and OBP so far this year, but he needs to further improve his defense (and CERA-related skills) to be more positive influence on this team.

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

     

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    Using overall CERA numbers is highly uninformative. 

     



    Really?  Then why have you talked so many times about 'Salty's CERA' improving after April/12?

    Because it improved pitcher by pitcher enormously, and when you compare one catcher against himself at an earlier time in the season, the ratios of who he was catching remained pretty consistent and stable.

    When comparing 2 catchers on the same team by their overall CERAs, it is only fair if they both catch the same pitchers roughly at the same percent of the time. This has never been true with the Sox. We have nearly always used a personal caddy system that skewed the ratios wildly, thus making overall CERA a near useless stat.

    This year, John seems to be using a L-R platoon of the catcher position, so maybe this will change over the full season, but looking at the numbers so far, despite the innings caught differentials being less than previous years, there is still a wide disparity between Salty and Ross on who they have caught proportionally more and less. 

     

    And what great insights are you producing from your lengthy lists of comparisons?

    CERA is an inexact science, moon.  We're all muddling around trying to make sense of the numbers.  Don't pretend to be the great authority.

     

     




     

    I have  always said CERA is "flawed" and a highly "limited use" stat. I have not pretended to be an expert, but my opinion is that CERA is best used when you look at how each catcher does with individual pitchers (one by one). That is where the comparisons have less outside variable (less not perfectly equal). 

    Are you really saying that the fact that Salty does about the same or better with our pitchers one by one is less valuable information than the overall numbers that are skewed by Ross catching our better pitchers more often?

    Do you see any value in pitcher by pitcher CERA numbers?

    Look, I'm not presenting these numbers out of a hat. I used to use this same criteria when blasting Salty as a poor "pitcher's catcher" when looked at side by side with VTek. I wanted Salty traded over the previous 2 winters before this last one. The disparities between Salty and VTek pitcher by pitcher was horrible. The overall numbers were worse due to the fact that VTek was beckett's personal caddy, and Salty was Wake's.

    2011:

    Salty: 624 PAs with Wake.

    VTek: 53 PAs with Wake. 

    Salty: 52 PAs with Beckett. 

    VTek: 715 PAs with Beckett (almost 30% of all his PAs caught).

     

    CERA is just one indicator of how pitchers do with one catcher vs another on the same team. That's about all it's good for. That's very limited.

     

    I know Salty is not a great game caller, thrower, and possibly bad pitch blocker, but I do see improvement in the game-calling area both in my observations and with pitcher by pitcher comparisons between him and our other catcher. Ross was known as a very good catcher before coming here. I didn't expect Salty to beat him out in the CERA area. I did expect a small learning curve for Ross, but he has done a fantastic job so far, IMO. The fact that Salty is holding his own with most pitchers on our staff when compared to Ross, is encouraging to me, not discouraging. 

    The huge runs allowed games are frustrationg to watch, and the fact that Salty is always the catcher when it happens is troubling... very troubling.

    I do like Salty's improved BB% and OBP so far this year, but he needs to further improve his defense (and CERA-related skills) to be more positive influence on this team.

     



    I believe CERA is a virtually useless statistic. We have been through this discussion before. But what I wanted to post is that as of this morning Salty is FOURTH in OPS in the AL among catchers with at least 50 ABs and he is SEVENTH of the 19 qualifying catchers. Unfortunately, he still strikes out way too often-40% of the time. He needs to make contact more often.

    Interestingly, his WAR ranks 14th of the 19 catchers, currently at 0.1. I wonder how they calculate that, given that his offensive numbers are relatively high for his position.

     

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from bosoxmal. Show bosoxmal's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    From a TV screen (or laptop) in Ft Myers, it is easy to like Salty as a person. He comes across as a really nice guy; also, a hard worker and probably a good team mate. But, he can't catch, and he is no better than average hitter (considering the K's). And, considering he's been at it for a long time, it's hard to believe he'll ever be "VG" at either.

    I'd consider him a "hold" and a No. 2 (or No. 3-in-waiting) catcher. Give Ross the job, and bring up Lavanway for spot duty. You can go blind looking at the mountains of stats that are available, but I'll still trust these old eyes (actually only one, now) that have been comparing catchers since the days of Al Lopez and Rick Farrell.

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In response to bosoxmal's comment:

    From a TV screen (or laptop) in Ft Myers, it is easy to like Salty as a person. He comes across as a really nice guy; also, a hard worker and probably a good team mate. But, he can't catch, and he is no better than average hitter (considering the K's). And, considering he's been at it for a long time, it's hard to believe he'll ever be "VG" at either.

    I'd consider him a "hold" and a No. 2 (or No. 3-in-waiting) catcher. Give Ross the job, and bring up Lavanway for spot duty. You can go blind looking at the mountains of stats that are available, but I'll still trust these old eyes (actually only one, now) that have been comparing catchers since the days of Al Lopez and Rick Farrell.



    As Tom Waits would croon, [you're] "blind in one eye, and can't see out of the other..."

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    Unfortunately, he still strikes out way too often-40% of the time. He needs to make contact more often.

    While 40% is an absurd numbers, K's are over-rated. I'll take the extra Ks if he can keep his OBP above .325.

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    I still dont understand how cera is even remotely reliable. Salty can call a great game, play great defense and all that, but bottom line is if the pitcher cant hit the spot he cant hit the spot. I respect all the work put into all the number crunching, but Ive said this before. CERA doesnt calculate for the intangibles. Salty has got better at a number of things. I like him. I have and will continue to support him because he is a good MLB catcher. I dont think he will ever be All Star material unless he can improve the offense and then he would be on line with Brian McCann who has 5 or 6 AS appearances. Their defensive numbers are almost identical. I do not agree with the people who refer to him as a butcher.

    Hes a league average catcher who has some power. Not much of a throwing arm, but a 23% career cs rate, 1% lower than McCann. Hes batting .253 with a .330obp and a.493 slg. Thats good for todays MLB catcher, very good. He has shown improvement in all areas of his game except cs. Those are all facts, not opinions.

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    I still dont understand how cera is even remotely reliable. Salty can call a great game, play great defense and all that, but bottom line is if the pitcher cant hit the spot he cant hit the spot. I respect all the work put into all the number crunching, but Ive said this before. CERA doesnt calculate for the intangibles.



    CERA isn't reliable in the least.  If it was, Salty would be gone.

    It's just a number.  An interesting number in my opinion, but impossible to draw precise conclusions from.

    Nonetheless it has to be a concern that Salty's CERA always ends up so high.

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

     

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

     

    I still dont understand how cera is even remotely reliable. Salty can call a great game, play great defense and all that, but bottom line is if the pitcher cant hit the spot he cant hit the spot. I respect all the work put into all the number crunching, but Ive said this before. CERA doesnt calculate for the intangibles.

     



    CERA isn't reliable in the least.  If it was, Salty would be gone.

     

    It's just a number.  An interesting number in my opinion, but impossible to draw precise conclusions from.

    Nonetheless it has to be a concern that Salty's CERA always ends up so high.

     




    I understand the concern, but when I watched him play for the last 3 years I see a good catcher. Not great, not an AllStar, but a good catcher who is improving. His offense has improved as well.

     

    I guess what I dont understand is all the negativity towards this guy. Hes not nearly as bad as some make him out to be. If his offensive numbers were a little better, he and Brian McCann would be in line with each other because their defense is already almost identical.

    Some here are calling for the sox to go get him and they use Saltys defense as a big reason.But their ok with McCann who makes almost 3 times what Salty makes, just returned from labrum surgery and has comparable defense? I agree BM is better offensively over his career, but dont knock Saltys defense and then call for a guy that is comparable to him defensively.

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

     

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

     

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

     

    I still dont understand how cera is even remotely reliable. Salty can call a great game, play great defense and all that, but bottom line is if the pitcher cant hit the spot he cant hit the spot. I respect all the work put into all the number crunching, but Ive said this before. CERA doesnt calculate for the intangibles.

     



    CERA isn't reliable in the least.  If it was, Salty would be gone.

     

    It's just a number.  An interesting number in my opinion, but impossible to draw precise conclusions from.

    Nonetheless it has to be a concern that Salty's CERA always ends up so high.

     




    I understand the concern, but when I watched him play for the last 3 years I see a good catcher. Not great, not an AllStar, but a good catcher who is improving. His offense has improved as well.

     

    I guess what I dont understand is all the negativity towards this guy. Hes not nearly as bad as some make him out to be. If his offensive numbers were a little better, he and Brian McCann would be in line with each other because their defense is already almost identical.

    Some here are calling for the sox to go get him and they use Saltys defense as a big reason.But their ok with McCann who makes almost 3 times what Salty makes, just returned from labrum surgery and has comparable defense? I agree BM is better offensively over his career, but dont knock Saltys defense and then call for a guy that is comparable to him defensively.

     



    I'm not saying Salty is ever going to approach VTek's reputation as a great catcher, game-caller, and overall leader, but many here forget this about VTek:

     

    At age 27, he led the league in PBs and also allowed 22 WPs (BA .269).

    At age 28, he led the league in PBs and allowed 16 WPs (BA .248/OPS .730).

    At age 29, he missed significant time with an injury (only played in 51 games).

    At age 30, he finally started to put together some impressive numbers, but still only had a .724 OPS, and his CS% never went over 28% in his entire career. His career CS% was 23%.

     

    Salty:

    At age 26, he led the league in PBs, but had a 31% CS rate (it is 27% career). His BA was .235, and his OPS was 737.

    At age 27, he had one of the best PB+WP/inning rates in MLB (.222/.742)

    At age 28 (this year), he is off to a bad start in PB + WP, but is .264/.831.

     

    I know some of you distrust the flawed CERA numbers and justifiably so. I know some of you feel to overall CERA shows a better picture than pitcher by pitcher comaprative analysis, so to those posters, I present this:

     

    VTek at age 26 in 1998 (Salty was 26 in 2011):

    Hatteberg  4.10 (.722 OPS against) * Scott was never known for his defense.

    VTek          4.29 (.725 OPS against)

     

    Vtek at age 27 in 1999 (Salty was 27 in 2012):

    Hatteberg  3.13 (.662 OPS)

    VTek          3.98 (.712)

     

    VTek at age 28 in 2000 (Salty's age now):

    Hatt  5.02  (.783) Might be more about Hattie getting worse than Vtek better.

    VTek 3.96  (.714) 

     

    VTek at age 29 in 2001 (Salty next year):

    VTek  3.00 (.631) vs team ERA or 4.18

    Hatt   4.60  (.740)

    Mira  4.75  (786) Became Wake's personal caddy.

      

           Team ERA/ VTek CERA

    2002: 3.75/3.74 (Mirabelli was close and caught Wake's games)

    2003: 4.49/4.49 (Mirabelli was actaully slightly better at 4.46)

    2004: 4.19/4.18 (Mirabelli at 4.26 and was a great def catcher)

    2005: 4.74/5.02 (Mirabelli was at 3.73)

    2006: 4.83/4.84 (Mirabelli was at 4.54)

    2007: 3.87/3.80 (Mira 4.09/Cash 3.95)

    2008: 4.01/3.66 (Cash 4.81) *When Vtek's CERA rule really began.

    2009: 4.35/3.87 (VMart 5.22/Kott 5.36) 

    2010: 4.20/4.05 (VMart FT'er 4.28/Cash 3.73/Salty 4.33 in 44 inn)

    2011: 4.20/3.57 (Salty 4.62/Lava 4.39)

     

    As you can see, the legend of VTek's CERA rule was really only his last 4 years at ages 36 to 39. He was also a great game caller and pitcher handler from about age 28-29, and his hitting was much better than the league average for much of his career, but at the ages Salty has been with the Sox, VTek was struggling with his fielding and his OPS.

     

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    I believe Salty is improving every year and this year has worked on his offensive game. He did start out slow, but Ive noticed that hes done that in April. Hes like a batter it seems, in that Salty might have to get a few real games under his belt before he gets the "feel" for it again like a batter getting his timing.

    I dont think he will get to the level of Tek either, but that doesnt mean he cant, wont or isnt a good MLB backstop. His offense has impressed me this year. people knock the K rate, but his OBP is up almost .50 from last year and his BA is up almost the same amount along with his SLG. Will it last? I dont know, but Ive already pointed out some adjustments in his swing that has allowed him to hit the high FB now. His patience is another noticable improvent also.

    With a kid that works as hard as he does and has the raw talent that he has, hes going to get better IMO. He hasnt hit that plateau. If the improvement continues, a 4yr deal wouldnt be out of the question. I would, but Im not so sure the Sox would. they might offer a QO knowing that Salty should get at least 4 yr deal worth more than the QO if he continues performing this way.

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    I believe Salty is improving every year and this year has worked on his offensive game. He did start out slow, but Ive noticed that hes done that in April. Hes like a batter it seems, in that Salty might have to get a few real games under his belt before he gets the "feel" for it again like a batter getting his timing.

    I dont think he will get to the level of Tek either, but that doesnt mean he cant, wont or isnt a good MLB backstop. His offense has impressed me this year. people knock the K rate, but his OBP is up almost .50 from last year and his BA is up almost the same amount along with his SLG. Will it last? I dont know, but Ive already pointed out some adjustments in his swing that has allowed him to hit the high FB now. His patience is another noticable improvent also.

    With a kid that works as hard as he does and has the raw talent that he has, hes going to get better IMO. He hasnt hit that plateau. If the improvement continues, a 4yr deal wouldnt be out of the question. I would, but Im not so sure the Sox would. they might offer a QO knowing that Salty should get at least 4 yr deal worth more than the QO if he continues performing this way.



    Maybe someday real soon, he will put it all together: last year's fielding + this year's hitting + improve on his K rate, but I doubt he ever has a plus CS rate, so some here will always hold that against him, as that is about the only defensive stat that matters to some.

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedSoxKimmi. Show RedSoxKimmi's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    "There is certainly something very troubling going on when these huge runs allowed games all occur under Salty."

    I am wondering if Salty's weakness is in making in-game adjustments.  Sometimes the game plan has to be changed because the opposing team comes out deciding they are going to be first pitch swinging, or because the pitcher doesn't have the feel for a certain pitch, .

    Varitek seemed to have a knack for doing that.  There are many games where I've seen a pitcher struggle in one way or another early in the game, but Varitek was somehow able to coax that pitcher through 6 innings and keep the team in the game.  I'm not sure that Salty has shown that ability yet.

     

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from bosoxmal. Show bosoxmal's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    Some of you guys go nuts over the numbers. Use your eyes. Ross is more likely to get on base vs a lefty than against a right hander. I don't care what the numbers say. Yes, he will hit a mistake out of sight now and then, but a decent right hander will tease him to death with outside corner sliders, then put on 3 inches outside, and he's gone. Same with Napoli and Middlebrooks. All three are so determined to pulverize a middle-in fastball, they forget that the idea is to get on base--not strike out!

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from RSF4Life234. Show RSF4Life234's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    Does anyone know the wins and losses for each catcher right now? I think its going to be surprising.

     
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