Time to Bench Salty

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In response to dannycater's comment:

    I'm getting sick of the trade Salty, get rid of Salty, bench Salty, bullshoy...the guy is a terrific power hitter and he does a more than adequate job behind the dish. In fact, the Sox ERA dropped one full run since last season in games caught by him (not that CERA means anything). Let's try to keep guys who get clutch hits, work hard, and give their body to the Sox to help them win. I want guys like Adrian Beltre.



    CERA by pitcher (not asd a team as a whole) does mean something.

    Salty started turning things around around the end of April last year. There were a couple huge run games by the opps that hurt Salty's numbers, but overall, the staff has done much better with him for over a year now than prior to 4/21/12.

    Salty now has the 4th best catcher OPS among catchers with 180+ PAs. (.872)

    It should be noted that Salty was at .917 last June 5th and .867 on June 21st and ended up at .742.

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from slasher9. Show slasher9's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    It should be noted that Salty was at .917 last June 5th and .867 on June 21st and ended up at .742.



    that is ugly.  i cant remember if he had a nagging injury 2nd half? 

    what is career split?

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    Here's how our staff has done with our catchers: (CERA/OPS against)

    *** Warning: some small sample sizes and some wide inning differentials)

                  w/Ross     w/Salty   w/Salty 2012

    Lester 4.26/.792   3.06/.555   5.62 .869

    Buch    1.51/.507   1.85/.555   6.30/.935

    Demp   2.86/.705   4.85/.743      n/a

    Doub    3.60/.570   4.79/.788  4.95/.777

    Lack     2.38/.715   2.59/.669      n/a

    Mort     2.70/.598   7.17/.781  2.79/.660

    Taz       2.61/.862   2.45/.652  1.45/.604

    Ueh      2.25/.682   2.45/.590       n/a

    Acev     7.36/.500   6.43/.596   4.92/.752

    Miller    2.70/.778   3.63/.635   3.91/.553

    Bailey   0.00/.161   3.38/.803   3.68/.782

    Wilson   2.45/.718   3.00/.801     n/a

    Breslow  0.00/.000   3.00/.596   3.95/.670

     

     

    Sox4ever

     
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  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In response to slasher9's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

    It should be noted that Salty was at .917 last June 5th and .867 on June 21st and ended up at .742.

     



    that is ugly.  i cant remember if he had a nagging injury 2nd half? 

     

    what is career split?

    [/QUOTE]

    He's only played 2 seasons from wire to wire, so I'm not sure the career spli tells us much, but here it is:

    1st half: .759

    2nd half: .697

    Best months:

    May  .812

    June .772

    Aug  .731

    Apr  .721

    Jul   .693

    Sep  .617.

    3 of his best 4 months are during the first half of a season.

    Salty peaked at .912 on June 5th 2012 (ended at .742).

    Salty peaked at .812 on August 1st 2011 (ended at .737).

    In 2009, Salty peaked at .779 on May 5th and was at .725 on May 31st. He ended up at .661.

    Now, it is not uncommon for players to peak sometime in the middle of a season. It's highly uncommon for a player to end the season at his highest OPS of the year, but it certainly is worrisome that Salty has had a history of dropping off sharply over the last 2 months or so of a long season.

    It should be noted that last season, Lava started many games late in the season, so Salty's timing might have been thrown off a bit, but the issue of stamina and durability is still on the burner with Salty. I argues last season, that we should have kept playing Salty for two reasons:

    1) To test his stamina and help answer that big concerb about his skillset.

    2) To help him build stamina by playing more and more each year.

    Bobby V and Ben had reasons to play Lava, so I'm not complaining, but the Salty stamina issue is still unresolved at this point.

     

     
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  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    Oh for 4.

    We should have traded him yesterday!

    Sox4ever

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from bosoxmal. Show bosoxmal's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    Far and away the most improved Red Sox player, 2012 season to 2013 season. I know Jason V. must have been a big part of the defensive improvement, and someone has convinced him to flatten his swing a tad, but I think he's worked hard and gets most of the credit. He should be on the all-star team.

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In response to bosoxmal's comment:

    Far and away the most improved Red Sox player, 2012 season to 2013 season. I know Jason V. must have been a big part of the defensive improvement, and someone has convinced him to flatten his swing a tad, but I think he's worked hard and gets most of the credit. He should be on the all-star team.




    +1

    People need to have more patience on this board. Baseball is the toughest game to play out of the big 4. It takes longer to develop to have success at the highest level consistently. And thats only a 30% success rate. Catcher is the hardest for many obvious reasons.

    Im happy to see salty turning the corner this year and start to put it all together. I really hope they offer him an extension so they can let Vasquez develop some more. Not sure that would happen though. If they cant/wont resign him, Im hoping a QO is extended to him, because he WILL get a 4 year deal as a FA.

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from SinceYaz. Show SinceYaz's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty


    I know I haven't added a lot to this thread .....   close to nada if anything, so maybe I oughta not say a thing here.

     

    BUt,   I will.

     

    Isn't it about time to re-name this thread?  Salty continues to improve almost from week to week. 

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In response to SinceYaz's comment:


    I know I haven't added a lot to this thread .....   close to nada if anything, so maybe I oughta not say a thing here.

     

    BUt,   I will.

     

    Isn't it about time to re-name this thread?  Salty continues to improve almost from week to week. 



    I think the title is a good reminder to those who gave up on Salty.

    Many fail to remember that VTek was 30-32 before he got his whole act together (offense, defense, and staff handling). The learning curve for catchers  varies from person to person. It is not easy to be able to "do it all". Salty seems to have targeted his weknesses and improved on nearly all of them, with the exception of throwing out base stealers. One problem has been, that as he has improved in one area, he had been suffering in others. This year, he seems to have put it all together, except for a higher WP+ PB rate and his continued issues with his CS rate.

    He has worked hard to get where he is at today. I hope he doesn't get over-worked. He seemed to hit a wall last summer, and has more PAs/innings catching at this point than he did last year.

    2012:

    PAs in Apr 52 & May  84 for a total of 136

    2013:

    PAs in Apr 78 & May 78 for a total of 156

    He's already at 37 PAs for June.

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from BMav. Show BMav's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    Since people are trying to say Salty is doing well, time to point out the ugly.

    First, Ross still has a huge edge in CERA...

    Ross---3.08
    Salty--4.11

    More then a run difference. For the 3rd year in a row. People say its all about pitcher to pitcher comparisons. Well, Ross has a 13-3 edge head to head in CERA. Salty only has an edge with Lester, Aceves, and Tazawa. And for the 3rd year in a row, Salty trails in head to head CERA comparisons to the back up catcher by a large margin.

    According to Fangraphs his defense has been very bad. Ranking near the bottom in DRS[-4]. And his throwing is the worst of his career[13%]

    As for offense, Salty is striking out at the worst clip of his career[33.7]. The thing producing his very good OPS is his .398 BABIP. Luck.

    Salty is still a bad catcher and a scary proposition going forward. I sure hope we don't extend him.

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    Fangrapghs also said Drew was a terrible fielder because he had no range. Hows that working out for them. We agree to disagree. There are many variables with catchers that simple numbers alone cant quantify.

    Id be willing toi bet Salty gets a 4yr deal somewhere. I wouldnt mind it being here in Boston.

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from BMav. Show BMav's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    Fangrapghs also said Drew was a terrible fielder because he had no range. Hows that working out for them. We agree to disagree. There are many variables with catchers that simple numbers alone cant quantify.

    Id be willing toi bet Salty gets a 4yr deal somewhere. I wouldnt mind it being here in Boston.




    In the 3 years between 2009-2011, Fangraphs had Drew well above average in DRS[+12] and UZR[+7.2]. In 2012, Drew was coming off a severe foot injury and his defense was probably crappy, especially the first month, when he had no spring training.

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In response to BMav's comment:

     

    Since people are trying to say Salty is doing well, time to point out the ugly.

    First, Ross still has a huge edge in CERA...

    Ross---3.08
    Salty--4.11

    More then a run difference. For the 3rd year in a row. People say its all about pitcher to pitcher comparisons. Well, Ross has a 13-3 edge head to head in CERA. Salty only has an edge with Lester, Aceves, and Tazawa. And for the 3rd year in a row, Salty trails in head to head CERA comparisons to the back up catcher.

    According to Fangraphs his defense has been very bad. Ranking near the bottom in DRS[-4]. And his throwing is the worst of his career[13%]

    As for offense, Salty is striking out at the worst clip of his career[33.7]. The thing producing his very good OPS is his .398 BABIP. Luck.

    Salty is still a bad catcher and a scary proposition going forward. I sure hope we don't extend him.

     



    Good points, but the improvement with pitchers from 2011 and early 2012 to later 2012 and this year is profound. Also, his comparison with Ross is a bit better when comparing OPS against vs CERA. 

     

    The 3 pitchers with the largest sample sizes in both 2012 and 2013...

    His improvement with these pitchers cannot be ignored:

    Lester  5.62 > 3.06  (better by 2.56)

    Buch    6.30 > 1.85  (better by 4.45)

    Doub    4.95 > 4.79  (better by 0.16)

    Let's compare how these guys improved from Shoppach to Ross:

    Lester  3.70 > 4.26  (worse by 0.56)

    Buch    3.23 > 1.51  (better by 1.72)

    Doub   4.18 > 3.60  (better by 0.58)

    I am troubled by his increase in PB+WP per inning rate. His CS rate getting worse from a bad spot to start with, but other areas such as pitch framing has been very good.

     

     

    His better OPS is surely fueled by a high BAbip, but that is not all of the improvement. His BB% has gone from 6.2% to 8.5% to 8.8% over his 3 years with the Sox.

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In response to BMav's comment:

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

    Fangrapghs also said Drew was a terrible fielder because he had no range. Hows that working out for them. We agree to disagree. There are many variables with catchers that simple numbers alone cant quantify.

    Id be willing toi bet Salty gets a 4yr deal somewhere. I wouldnt mind it being here in Boston.

     




    In the 3 years between 2009-2011, Fangraphs had Drew well above average in DRS[+12] and UZR[+7.2]. In 2012, Drew was coming off a severe foot injury and his defense was probably crappy, especially the first month, when he had no spring training.

     

    [/QUOTE]

    Fangraphs also warns not to use UZR in smaller than 3 year sample sizes. Drew's 2009-2011 timeframe was limited in games played. While he certainly has improved in fielding from his earlier years, using these numbers from a sample size not large enough by the standards set by the creators of the metric is problematic.

    If you want to look at small sample sizes on UZR, then compare Drew to Iggy:

    2012-2013 SSs with 250+ innings (60 in MLB):

    UZR/150:

    1) Iggy  +37.5

    28) Drew +0.8

     

    DRS

    13) Iggy   8 in just 259 innings 

    31) Drew  0 in over 1121 innings

    Pro-rate Iggy to the innings Drew has, and he'd be at about +35 DRS

     

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from BMav. Show BMav's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

     



    Fangraphs also warns not to use UZR in smaller than 3 year sample sizes. Drew's 2009-2011 timeframe was limited in games played. While he certainly has improved in fielding from his earlier years, using these numbers from a sample size not large enough by the standards set by the creators of the metric is problematic.

     

    If you want to look at small sample sizes on UZR, then compare Drew to Iggy:

    2012-2013 SSs with 250+ innings (60 in MLB):

    UZR/150:

    1) Iggy  +37.5

    28) Drew +0.8

     

    DRS

    13) Iggy   8 in just 259 innings 

    31) Drew  0 in over 1121 innings

    Pro-rate Iggy to the innings Drew has, and he'd be at about +35 DRS

     

    [/QUOTE]


    I agree that using UZR in small sample sizes is dangerous and can be misleading. However, 3 partial years I feel comfortable in using.

    Second, since I believe Drew was injured and not right in 2012, I ignore his stats from 2012. That came in handy in thinking Drew would be good this year btw.

    Finally, although I have said a few times that I consider Iggy over rated on defense. Make no mistake, I consider Iggy better on defense then Drew and expect to always consider Iggy better. Drew I consider to be a good defensive SS. Iggy very good to excellent.

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In response to BMav's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

     

     

     



    Fangraphs also warns not to use UZR in smaller than 3 year sample sizes. Drew's 2009-2011 timeframe was limited in games played. While he certainly has improved in fielding from his earlier years, using these numbers from a sample size not large enough by the standards set by the creators of the metric is problematic.

     

     

    If you want to look at small sample sizes on UZR, then compare Drew to Iggy:

    2012-2013 SSs with 250+ innings (60 in MLB):

    UZR/150:

    1) Iggy  +37.5

    28) Drew +0.8

     

    DRS

    13) Iggy   8 in just 259 innings 

    31) Drew  0 in over 1121 innings

    Pro-rate Iggy to the innings Drew has, and he'd be at about +35 DRS

     

    [/QUOTE]


    I agree that using UZR in small sample sizes is dangerous and can be misleading. However, 3 partial years I feel comfortable in using.

    Second, since I believe Drew was injured and not right in 2012, I ignore his stats from 2012. That came in handy in thinking Drew would be good this year btw.

    Finally, although I have said a few times that I consider Iggy over rated on defense. Make no mistake, I consider Iggy better on defense then Drew and expect to always consider Iggy better. Drew I consider to be a good defensive SS. Iggy very good to excellent.

    [/QUOTE]

    I don't think it's a stretch to think Iggy might have a 30+ DRS over a 1,100 inning season at SS. That's an amazing number. Even 20 would be great. Iggy will probably make more errors than Drew on routine plays, but the amount of plays he makes that Drew would not, in my opinion, would far outweigh that differential.

    Drew has shown he is a better fielder than I expected, but I think he has been close to average. That's not a slam. There are a lot of very good fielding SSs in MLB today.

    I projected Drew to be a better hitter than Iggy this year, but as these sample sizes grow in number, Iggy is showing no signs of letting up, while Drew has been heading in the wrong direction. 

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    I rarely make in game projections, but my gut tells me Salty is going to crank one in the top of the ninth.

    (Side note: my gut is about 40 pounds lighter than 10 months ago, so maybe it's trying to tell me something totally different from what I interpreted... )

    Sox4ever

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    As my govenor would say, "Ooops!"

    Sox4ever

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    what's up with salty lately?

    for like the past month or so he's been gunning down base stealers like it's nobodies business!

    he's thrown out more runners in the past month than he did all last season :p

    MASTER OF PUPPETS I'M PULLING YOUR STRINGS!!
    TWISTING YOUR MIND AND SMASHING YOUR DREAMS!!
    BLINDED BY ME YOU CAN'T SEE A THING!!
    JUST CALL MY NAME 'CUZ I'LL HEAR YOU SCREAM!!
    MASTER!! MASTER!!

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    Extend Salty!

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

    Extend Salty!



    I was ridiculed for saying this same thing during ST. 

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedSoxKimmi. Show RedSoxKimmi's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    I was ridiculed for saying this same thing during ST. 




    Though I didn't ridicule you, I did disagree with the idea of extending Salty this past offseason.  While he showed improvement last season, and I am speaking only in terms of defense and handling the pitching staff, I don't think that he showed enough to warrant an extension at that time.  What if he were extended and he flopped this year?  To me, extending him last offseason would have been premature.

    I understand that if Salty continues to improve, his price tag continues to go up.  But, I also feel like Salty is the type who would leave some money on the table to stay in Boston.

     

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

    Extend Salty!

     



    I was ridiculed for saying this same thing during ST. 

     

    [/QUOTE]


    You werent ridiculed Moon. Some just didnt agree with extending him because we wanted to see if he could put it all together first. He has proved that so far this year. I agree with Kimmi and have said myself, that I think if Boston wanted him here, Salty would leave a couple Mil on the table to stay here since Boston gave him the chance and had the patience with him that neither Atlanta nor Texas did.

     
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