Time to Bench Salty

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from craze4sox. Show craze4sox's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

     

     

    Extend Salty!

     

     



    I was ridiculed for saying this same thing during ST. 

     

     




    You werent ridiculed Moon. Some just didnt agree with extending him because we wanted to see if he could put it all together first. He has proved that so far this year. I agree with Kimmi and have said myself, that I think if Boston wanted him here, Salty would leave a couple Mil on the table to stay here since Boston gave him the chance and had the patience with him that neither Atlanta nor Texas did.

     




    I always said Salty needed to turn the corner this season to have any chance of staying in Boston.  This couldn't have come at a better time in his career so so if it continues, by all means make him an offer and see what happens.  If he's anything like Pede, Lowell and others he may take less to stay in Boston and I know hes well liked by his mates.   

    You can also bet rivals, like Tampa and the Yankees will be out to steal Salty if he continues to do well.

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from craze4sox. Show craze4sox's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In response to Ergoetal's comment:

    Let's see.

      Theo's infatuations brought us Salty, Lugo, Rent-a-wreck, Gonzo... Any otheres  Any of these pan out?   i'm still not sure about Gonzo -- His hitting is coming back, but I'd still like to see what he can do when the game is on the line.  My guess is grounder to second.   Wishing Theo well in Chicago.  



    I think we could easily pull of a blockbuster and improve our staff enough to win a ring much sooner than expected but don't feel our FO will pull the trigger.  Our FO is probably surprised the team is even if first place at this point and will just ride out the season.  I think only a major injury might force their hand.

    I said this before, other than pitching our team has the talent to make the PS if everyone continues to contribute offensively.  What I don't see is our pen, or SP going very far in the playoffs against a team llike Detroit, or possibly Texas.  Bailey really got lucky yesterday which really helped our cause because Baltimore is right on our tail but hes scares the crap out of me lately.

     

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In response to RedSoxKimmi's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    I was ridiculed for saying this same thing during ST. 

     




    Though I didn't ridicule you, I did disagree with the idea of extending Salty this past offseason.  While he showed improvement last season, and I am speaking only in terms of defense and handling the pitching staff, I don't think that he showed enough to warrant an extension at that time.  What if he were extended and he flopped this year?  To me, extending him last offseason would have been premature.

     

    I understand that if Salty continues to improve, his price tag continues to go up.  But, I also feel like Salty is the type who would leave some money on the table to stay in Boston.

     



    I realized the risk, and said so at the time, but I did not expect Salty to flop, maybe not improve, but certainly not flop. I thought if he didn't improve, we could trade him and eat part of his new salary. The point was, an extension last winter would not have been at a very high salary. We might have gotten him to take $16M/3 with incentives.

    Now, he is likely to get $25M/3 or more.

    I have been wrong about many things this year (so far), so allow me to gloat a bit about my position on Salty.

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

     

     

     

    Extend Salty!

     

     



    I was ridiculed for saying this same thing during ST. 

     

     

     




    You werent ridiculed Moon. Some just didnt agree with extending him because we wanted to see if he could put it all together first. He has proved that so far this year. I agree with Kimmi and have said myself, that I think if Boston wanted him here, Salty would leave a couple Mil on the table to stay here since Boston gave him the chance and had the patience with him that neither Atlanta nor Texas did.

     



    You and Kimmi did not ridicule me, but other certainly did. I was called "crazy" and "insane" by more than one poster.

    Of course it makes sense to "wait and see", but the gamble can payoff or not. We gambled with the Beckett extension and lost badly. I get that.

    I saw improvement in Salty last year, after being highly critical of him for over a year. Improvement with the pitching staff is not soemthing that usually comes and goes. I expected at least the same as the last 5 months of 2012 showed (see the CERA and OPS against numbers on previous pages). The staff has continued to improve with Salty, as I had expected. His OBP has improved by much more than I expected, but my guess is, it might end up around .310 by the end of the year, which is still a nice improvement and worthy of a raise.

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    You have to go down to 130 PAs to get a sample size as large as 15 AL catchers today. Here's how Salty ranks (out of 16 catchers with 130+ PAs):

    3rd in OPS .824

    6th in OBP .335

    1st in SLG .489

    5th in wRC+  122

    WAR: 5th at  +1.3

    Batting Factor in WAR: 4th +5.1

    Base Running Factor: 9th -1.1

    Fielding Factor in WAR: 10th -2.0

    Value: $6.6M

    Sox4ever

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    Salty gets to the park around 9am, is behind the plate at 1pm, takes a 3hr break at 3pm and steps to the plate to finish game 1 around 6pm. Finishes game one about 7:15pm. Rests about 30mins and heads back out for game 2 at 8pm and ended about 10:30ish.

    To catch 18 innings over a span of 9.5 hrs and a full day where he probably didnt get back to his home until after midnight, lasting 15 hours, is not easy. Salty is the man.

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    Also, only 2 runs allowed in games started by Aceves and Doubront.  Salty must be doing something right behind the dish.

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    When pitchers feel comfortable and trust their battery mate, they tend to pitch better most of the time.

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    It's been a rough ride with Salty but it does feel like he's finally earning his keep.  I don't think he will ever be that perennial all-star that he was once thought to be when traded for Mark Teixeira but maybe he is a late blossomer who can be a good player. 

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    Salty gets to the park around 9am, is behind the plate at 1pm, takes a 3hr break at 3pm and steps to the plate to finish game 1 around 6pm. Finishes game one about 7:15pm. Rests about 30mins and heads back out for game 2 at 8pm and ended about 10:30ish.

    To catch 18 innings over a span of 9.5 hrs and a full day where he probably didnt get back to his home until after midnight, lasting 15 hours, is not easy. Salty is the man.



    He also caught that extra inning game recently as well.

    Here are some COPSA numbers (Catcher OPS Against):

     

    Salty: (Note the wide difference in who catches who most and least)

    RED is the Leader between the two catchers

    (PA)  Pitcher  OPS Against

    305 Doubront   .752

    212 Lester        .612

    200 Lackey       .660

    188 Buchholz    .555

    180 Dempster   .743

    147 Aceves       .912

    105 Mortnesen .781

    92   Miller         .593

    88   Tazawa     .662

    82   Uehara      .577

    72   Bailey        .900

    68   Wilson       .782

    58   Breslow    .603

     

    Ross (Note: some tiny samples)

    165  Lester       .870

    150  Dempster .695

    137  Buchholz  .507

    48    Lackey     .715

    43    Tazawa    .862

    32    Uehara    .659

    25    Mortens  .598

    23    Doubront .570

    19    Bailey      .161

    18    Miller       .778

    16    Aceves    .813

    15    Wilson    .718

    7      Breslow  .000

     

    If you only look at pitchers with 25+ PAs with each catcher (still small sample sizes), the totals are:

    Better with Salty (4):

    Lester, Lackey, Tazawa, Uehara

    Better with Ross (2):

    Dempster & Buchholz

     

    18+ PAs:

    Add one to Salty (Miller) Total of 5

    Add two to Ross (Doub & Bailey) Total of 4

     

     

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    Might not be long before someone posts a thread like this again.

    Sox4ever

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    .272BA .341OBP .456SLG .797OPS

    342b  10HR  48RBI

    Solid defense and constant compliments from his pitchers. He will never have a high CS%, but like Ive said many times, its not high up on the list. Although it would be nice, its certainly not a huge issue for me.

    They have to consider a 3-4 year deal for salty, or at the least a QO. He usually hits a wall by now and it looks like hes still going strong with no signs of slowing down. Good for him. I believe he has turned that corner and finally put it all together this year like I thought he could. Always room for improvement, but Id be happy to have him here the next few years.

     

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    One thing that upset me about last season's poor outcome was that we did not give Salty a chance to prove his durabiltity and stamina skills- something that was in serious doubt.

    I worried about the added workload this season after Ross got hurt, but somewhat amazingly, Salty has continued to grow and has not "hit the wall".

    He's flirting with an .800 OPS, but more importantly has his OBP above .340. I was thinking .330 might be the best we could have hoped for.

    The season is not over, but Salty looks for real. Too bad this is his last contract year. Last winter, I suggested extending him before the price got too high. I also mentioned that if Salty was not in our longterm plans, we should have considered trading him while the stock was high.

    I hope Salty is back nexct year. I think he will give us pretty close to what McCann can give, but at a small fraction of the cost. That money can be redirected towards getting that solid mid-order bat we needs so badly.

     

    Sox4ever

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    One thing that upset me about last season's poor outcome was that we did not give Salty a chance to prove his durabiltity and stamina skills- something that was in serious doubt.

    I worried about the added workload this season after Ross got hurt, but somewhat amazingly, Salty has continued to grow and has not "hit the wall".

    He's flirting with an .800 OPS, but more importantly has his OBP above .340. I was thinking .330 might be the best we could have hoped for.

    The season is not over, but Salty looks for real. Too bad this is his last contract year. Last winter, I suggested extending him before the price got too high. I also mentioned that if Salty was not in our longterm plans, we should have considered trading him while the stock was high.

    I hope Salty is back nexct year. I think he will give us pretty close to what McCann can give, but at a small fraction of the cost. That money can be redirected towards getting that solid mid-order bat we needs so badly.

     

    Sox4ever

     




    MCcann might be a bit better offensively, but defensively they are incredibly similar with their stats. Intangibles are difference and I havent seen McCann enough on a regular basis to judge his game calling, pitch framing and all that.

     

    I agree that Salty deserves an extension from the Sox. We dont have a potential starting catcher ready for at least a couple years. And no, I still dont see Lavarnway as a 100+ game a year catcher at the MLB level. Position player/DH/BU catcher? Yes.

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from ThefourBs. Show ThefourBs's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    One thing that upset me about last season's poor outcome was that we did not give Salty a chance to prove his durabiltity and stamina skills- something that was in serious doubt.

    I worried about the added workload this season after Ross got hurt, but somewhat amazingly, Salty has continued to grow and has not "hit the wall".

    He's flirting with an .800 OPS, but more importantly has his OBP above .340. I was thinking .330 might be the best we could have hoped for.

    The season is not over, but Salty looks for real. Too bad this is his last contract year. Last winter, I suggested extending him before the price got too high. I also mentioned that if Salty was not in our longterm plans, we should have considered trading him while the stock was high.

    I hope Salty is back nexct year. I think he will give us pretty close to what McCann can give, but at a small fraction of the cost. That money can be redirected towards getting that solid mid-order bat we needs so badly.

     

    Sox4ever

     




    MCcann might be a bit better offensively, but defensively they are incredibly similar with their stats. In tangibles are difference and I havent seen McCann enough on a regular basis to judge his game calling, pitch framing and all that.

     

    I agree that Salty deserves an extension from the Sox. We dont have a potential starting catcher ready for at least a couple years. And no, I still dont see Lavarnway as a 100+ game a year catcher at the MLB level. Position player/DH/BU catcher? Yes.




    The only drawback to resigning Salty is having Bill begging to trade him all season again, next year.

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from soxnewmex. Show soxnewmex's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    Great to see Salty improve so much!  Still, he remains the last player on the Sox I want to see at the plate with the game on the line.  No doubt there are stats on him that support this impression of his hits coming less with risp and in high leverage game situations and more when the sox are already winning or are far behind.

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from slasher9. Show slasher9's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In response to ThefourBs' comment:



    The only drawback to resigning Salty is having Bill begging to trade him all season again, next year.

     



    inconsequential as we can all agree that if this forum existed in Fisk's heyday, bill would have begged to trade him every year too.

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In response to ThefourBs' comment:

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

     

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

     

     

    One thing that upset me about last season's poor outcome was that we did not give Salty a chance to prove his durabiltity and stamina skills- something that was in serious doubt.

    I worried about the added workload this season after Ross got hurt, but somewhat amazingly, Salty has continued to grow and has not "hit the wall".

    He's flirting with an .800 OPS, but more importantly has his OBP above .340. I was thinking .330 might be the best we could have hoped for.

    The season is not over, but Salty looks for real. Too bad this is his last contract year. Last winter, I suggested extending him before the price got too high. I also mentioned that if Salty was not in our longterm plans, we should have considered trading him while the stock was high.

    I hope Salty is back nexct year. I think he will give us pretty close to what McCann can give, but at a small fraction of the cost. That money can be redirected towards getting that solid mid-order bat we needs so badly.

     

    Sox4ever

     

     




    MCcann might be a bit better offensively, but defensively they are incredibly similar with their stats. In tangibles are difference and I havent seen McCann enough on a regular basis to judge his game calling, pitch framing and all that.

     

     

    I agree that Salty deserves an extension from the Sox. We dont have a potential starting catcher ready for at least a couple years. And no, I still dont see Lavarnway as a 100+ game a year catcher at the MLB level. Position player/DH/BU catcher? Yes.

     




    The only drawback to resigning Salty is having Bill begging to trade him all season again, next year.

     




    That doesnt matter, He'll just find some other useless topic to flood the front page with.

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In response to soxnewmex's comment:

     

    Great to see Salty improve so much!  Still, he remains the last player on the Sox I want to see at the plate with the game on the line.  No doubt there are stats on him that support this impression of his hits coming less with risp and in high leverage game situations and more when the sox are already winning or are far behind.

     




    Last year, Salty did better than most of our hitters in big situations. This year, he started off poorly in this area, but has gotten some big hits and walks recently.

     

    2012 Late & Close (50+ PAs)  (The difference between this OPS and overall OPS)

    .786 Pedey (-.011)

    .768 Ross  (-.039)

    .725 Salty  (-.017) 2nd best differential

    .702 AGon  (-.110)

    .682 Ortiz  (-.344)

    .604 Aviles  (-.059)

    .544 Ellsb   (-.138)

    .479 Nava  (-.263)

     

    2013 Late & Close (40+ PAs)

    1.048 Gomes  (+.281)

    .778  Ortiz   (-.207)

    .758  Midd   (+.062)

    .724  Nava   (-.093)

    .707  Pedey  -.063)

    .704  Ellsb  (-.074)

    .670  Nap  (-.105)

    .669  Vict   (-.074)

    .661  Drew (-.093)

    .624  Salty  (-.186) 2nd worst differential

     

     Salty is 7th in catcher OPS and 8th in catcher OBP. 

    While his SLG% is up only .002 from last year, the more important OBP is up .053. To me, that was the biggest need area for Salty.

    (A prime example of how a K rate can be near meaningless within the context of the whole player.)

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from dannycater. Show dannycater's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    Last year, Salty was No. 1 among catchers in home runs, this year he is No. 1 among catchers in doubles. Time to bench him.

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    Last year Salty had 6 PBs and 23 WPs in 852 innings behind the plate. This year he has 5 PBs and 30 WPs in 822 innings.

    Sox4ever

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    Boo-Yah!

    Sox4ever

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    Last year Salty had 6 PBs and 23 WPs in 852 innings behind the plate. This year he has 5 PBs and 30 WPs in 822 innings.

    Sox4ever



    i thought WPs were credited to pitchers not catchers? i though that was the distinguishing factor between a WP and a PB. WP is the pitchers fault and Pb is the catchers fault.

    also, why doesn't a PB count as an error on a catcher?? seems stupid to me.

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In response to mef429's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    Last year Salty had 6 PBs and 23 WPs in 852 innings behind the plate. This year he has 5 PBs and 30 WPs in 822 innings.

    Sox4ever

     



    i thought WPs were credited to pitchers not catchers? i though that was the distinguishing factor between a WP and a PB. WP is the pitchers fault and Pb is the catchers fault.

     

    also, why doesn't a PB count as an error on a catcher?? seems stupid to me.




    I don't count WPs against the catcher, but some are better at preventing them than others. It might not have anything to do with Salty's defense. A catcher might improve at blocking pitches and still end up with more WPs. I get that.

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    what do you guys think the starting point for saltys contract is going to be??

    in 2012, the top catchers made ~8 Mil give or take with Mauer being the outlier @ 23M per. McCan was the next highest at 10.5 and the only other catcher making 8 figures. IMO Salty is a top 10 catcher this year and should be paid like one. So my starting point for negotiations is 7M per. I'd go with a 3 year deal too bringing my starting offer to 7/21 which would be a very good value for a top catcher. Realistically, with the rising salaries among all players good and bad (im looking at you BJ Upton) and a better FA catcher available who will likely set the market i think Salty will get 9-10M per on the open market. Which i would still do for 3 years.

    so my range for Saltys future contract is 3 years, 21-27M. Which like i said, i would do without thinking twice. what do you guys think?

    Some say a storm is coming, Some say the end is near.

    Some think it's all so hazy, I think it's all so clear.

    Some say they have the answers, some say they know the truth.

    Some people live in question, some people have no clue.

    If there was no tomorrow, if there was just today.

    would you make different choices? or would you stay the same?

     
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