Time to Bench Salty

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    We are clearly not going to make the playoffs this year. Why in the world would we stop giving Lavarnway and guys like Iglesias PT for the remainder of the year in the hope that they will use that experience to potentially become mlb ready players? Now is the time to play guys like Gomez, Lavarnway, Iglesias   etc...should all get plenty of PT. Ortiz can sit and hopefully still retain type A type status, as I think he will given his numbers.
     
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    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In response to Time to Bench Salty:

    We are clearly not going to make the playoffs this year. Why in the world would we stop giving Lavarnway and guys like Iglesias PT for the remainder of the year in the hope that they will use that experience to potentially become mlb ready players? Now is the time to play guys like Gomez, Lavarnway, Iglesias   etc...should all get plenty of PT. Ortiz can sit and hopefully still retain type A type status, as I think he will given his numbers.



    Because Salty is still developing also, questions sgtill need to be answered about his stamina, and the decision on keeping him or letting him go id more urgent, since he is only under our control until after 2013.

    Here's a possible scenario: we give the job to Lava the rest of this year and half of next year, but he stinks up the place, and shows no signs of improving. Then what? We don't know enough about Salty at that point, to think about extending him or not.

    The decision on Lava is not as urgent, and... a big and, he can DH the rest of this season, catch a few games (vs LHPs as Shoppach did), and then next spring decide if Salty is AAA needy, ready to share the catcher job with Salty, be the primary DH, of be the FT catcher as we deal away Salty. There is a lot to go into gathering as much information as possible before making this choice. I'm curious why it appears so many posters think the Salty we have now is the best he can possibly be. I'm not saying he will certainly get better, but to me, most of what I'm seeing here is Salty being "thrown under the bus"  more than Lava, and I should know: I was an expert at throwing Salty under the busas soon as 4 or so months ago.

    Salty has 6 more Hrs in about 20 less ABs than last year. His defense has improved immensly. His handling of the staff is night and day from last year and April of this year. He's just 27, and let's all join in and wriet him off perhaps before we have seen him at his best. There is such an urgent rush to thrust Lava inti the hot Boston spotlight, for what? If he's a great catcher, we'll have plenty of time to find out, starting in 2014 after Salty leaves, of if Salty earns an extension, one of them will be traded, if not this winter, then next July.

    The bus has already driven over Salty, backed up over him a couple times, and parked on top of him a few times this year. 
     
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    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    Kind of funny Moon! 

    I'm not saying play Lavarnway all the time but I don't think we should send him to AAA any time soon. Considering that even next year we probably are in rebuild mode to a degree I think he is in a platoon situation with some other catcher. If it is Salty so be it. I'm just saying he has done well in 2 years at AAA ball and why not give him a real shot at mlb level catching as of right now.

    We've seen Salty as the starter for 2 years now. I don't get why we need to see him more. I think the sample size is significant. Almost exactly the same CERA ( if I remember correctly ) as last year with around a 20% CS percentage this year as compared to around 30% last year. I don't see the improvement personally, at least from looking at the numbers.


     
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    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    Look at the CERA numbers after April of this year as Moon has already suggested and laid out many times already. Theres a very noticable improvement.
     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    Kind of funny Moon!  

    I'm not saying play Lavarnway all the time but I don't think we should send him to AAA any time soon. Considering that even next year we probably are in rebuild mode to a degree I think he is in a platoon situation with some other catcher. If it is Salty so be it. I'm just saying he has done well in 2 years at AAA ball and why not give him a real shot at mlb level catching as of right now. 

    As I have said, if 2013 is going to be a rebuilding year, we should trade Salty and give Lava the job, unless Papi walks, in which case Lava can DH vs most RHPs and play C vs LHPs only.

    If we are going to try and be competitive, a relative term- I know, then Lava doesn't appear to be ready to handle a pitching staff full time. He needs FT experience behind the plate if he is to become a ML catcher. It doesn't have to be at the ML level, but it would be better than AAA.

    We've seen Salty as the starter for 2 years now. I don't get why we need to see him more.

    27 years of age for a catcher is not the normal end of growth. As I showed with VTek, it took him until age 30 before he got control of the PBs, WPs, and worse CERA than the other team catcher in totality- pitcher by picther. He has improved his hitting this year. He has improved his PBs and WPs enormously. Since April 25th, he has improved the performances of our pitching staff by leaps and bounds. 

    I think the sample size is significant. Almost exactly the same CERA ( if I remember correctly ) as last year

    You are locking yourself into timeframes that don't reflect his improvement accurately. Just take away his first 12 games of the season- a tiny sample size, and you are left with very decent CERA that compares very closely to Shoppach's during the same time, and much better than Lava's in a very tiny sample size so far.

    ...with around a 20% CS percentage this year as compared to around 30% last year. I don't see the improvement personally, at least from looking at the numbers. 

    It's about 8-10 more SBs over a full season.
     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    ...
     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    Lava is going to get a long long look someday. I guess we are mostly arguing about when. I don't hear anyone sure in the position that we should extend Salty beyond 2013, so at worst, Lava may have to wait until 2014 for the FT job, unless things change next year via:
    1) Salty improves so much in 2013 that we decide to extend him & he agrees.
    2) Salty declines and regardless of how Lava looks, he gets the job in season.
    3) Lava improves noticably and we are out of the race early, and he gets the job in season.

    Everyone knows I was never a Salty supporter until very recently. I've explained how my view has changed as Salty has improved his defense and staff handling. I have used data and observations to support my position and have tried to show that the state of catchers in MLB, especially on offense, is not a pretty site. I feel some expect 1Bman numbers from the catching position, and if they don't get it- out you go!
    I have showed how even Jason Varitek had some pretty horrible defensive and CERA numbers up to about 30 years old, but several posters here want to give up on him at age 27. I don't want to argue semantics, but it seems clear to me, there are more posters here "throwing Salty under the bus" than Lava.

    My guess is, and it just my gues- I don't pretend to be an expert on catcher development, but I'm pretty sure many scouts and baseball experts realize that not all catchers halt growth at 27. The hard numbers, except for CS%, all show improvement. Close observation by many on this board have recognized a vast improvement since April and are willing to count the first 12 games of so as a possible thing of the past. One of Salty's biggest unknowns going into this year was durabilty & stamina. Halting the experiment now, will leave that question unanswered. I get that playing Lava FT may help answer other important questions, but it will leave others wide open. I understand why many here want Lava, but I guess what gets me is how many Lava supporters don't seem to be able to understand the other side of the issue.


     
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    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In response to Time to Bench Salty:

    Lava is going to get a long long look someday. I guess we are mostly arguing about when. I don't hear anyone sure in the position that we should extend Salty beyond 2013, so at worst, Lava may have to wait until 2014 for the FT job, unless things change next year via:
    1) Salty improves so much in 2013 that we decide to extend him & he agrees.
    2) Salty declines and regardless of how Lava looks, he gets the job in season.
    3) Lava improves noticably and we are out of the race early, and he gets the job in season.

    Everyone knows I was never a Salty supporter until very recently. I've explained how my view has changed as Salty has improved his defense and staff handling. I have used data and observations to support my position and have tried to show that the state of catchers in MLB, especially on offense, is not a pretty site. I feel some expect 1Bman numbers from the catching position, and if they don't get it- out you go!
    I have showed how even Jason Varitek had some pretty horrible defensive and CERA numbers up to about 30 years old, but several posters here want to give up on him at age 27. I don't want to argue semantics, but it seems clear to me, there are more posters here "throwing Salty under the bus" than Lava.

    My guess is, and it just my gues- I don't pretend to be an expert on catcher development, but I'm pretty sure many scouts and baseball experts realize that not all catchers halt growth at 27. The hard numbers, except for CS%, all show improvement. Close observation by many on this board have recognized a vast improvement since April and are willing to count the first 12 games of so as a possible thing of the past. One of Salty's biggest unknowns going into this year was durabilty & stamina. Halting the experiment now, will leave that question unanswered. I get that playing Lava FT may help answer other important questions, but it will leave others wide open. I understand why many here want Lava, but I guess what gets me is how many Lava supporters don't seem to be able to understand the other side of the issue.


    Well stated -- and it has been time and again. I doubt that there is anything more we can do, or even should try to do on that issue.
    Maybe you've read my rant about the bozo behind the plate last night. He hurt Salty in particular, with a bad strike call in one AB, and a third-strike call in another. Bad enough any time, but Salty has been showing better plate discipline lately and hitting the ball the other way. So he lays off bad pitches in the dirt and bad pitches outside, and the ump gives the pitcher the bad pitches outside.
    The Sox will decide what is best for the team with respect to Salty/Lavarnway. I hope. 
     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    Yes, I read your thread on the umps, but try to refrain from  talking about umps. I don't want to get ulcers or something worse.
     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    I don't want to play Salty until he is 30 to see if he is going to make it. We have been, IMO, more than patient with him. I think the Sox clearly tried to move him at the break which is astonishing considering that Shoppach would have been the more conventional choice. Maybe I'm wrong but I don't think the Sox are looking at this situation in the same way you guys are. As in Southpaw, Moon, expitch, Dannycater...etc. I appear to be in the minority but we can agree to disagree.
     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty



     I still don't get your whole argument about them trying to move Salty not Shopp at the break, like that means they valued Shopp more than Salty or something. It most likely meant that they thought the drop off from Salty/Shopp to Lava/Shopp could be more than made up for in the return value gained by trading Salty. Assuming the report is true that they tried hard to trade him (I don't believe anything the Boston press writes these days), they obviously felt like they could get much more in return for Salty than Shopp. Either other GMs did not value him as much as Ben, there wasn't a contender desperate enough to "overpay" for Salty, or Ben over-values Salty. I just don't see it as a sign they undervalue him. They are still playing him now, and seem to bending over backwards not to give Lava a full look, even though the season is lost. I'm sorry, but I think Ben sees things more in line with my view: Salty has improved his offense over the full season from last year, despite a long slump, and since April, he is really done a fine job with the staff, and has looked much better blocking bad pitches and making plays around the plate. Ben is probably petrified that if he gives up on Salty, and Lava tanks, he's back where we were during Vtek's decline- desperately seeking a capable all-around catcher. And, if Salty ends up growing into a better catcher elsewhere, I can just hear the media and fans going ballistic.

    It's too early to annoint Lava the FT job, not so much because he doesn't look ready for a shot, but because Salty still looks promising and is an improving 27 year old catcher with 38 HRs in his last 619 ABs.
     


     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    Boom, Salty hasn't even finished 2 seasons.

    I'm not saying Salty is the next VTek or even that he will continue to improve. He may never get better. he may get worse. You may end up being right, but I just don't get stopping a young player's obvious growth, especially in the most key areas, just to rush an unproven and apparently unready prospect. 


     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    After 2 and a half seaons with the Sox, VTek batted .248 at age 28 (.730 OPS) and had led the league in PBs for 2 straight years at that point. I'm glad our GM didn't have your strategy then. 

    By 28, VTek had a -8.0 defensive rating on fangraph's value metric. (Salty is -3.1 in 2 yrs here.)

    At age 29, he was injured. At age 30, he batted a whopping .266 with a .724 OPS. 
    It took him that long to get it "all together".
     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    Make that 39 HRs in his last 621 ABs.
     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from expitch. Show expitch's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    Sox pitchers will age Salty three years before the end of the season. 
    I agree with your post elsewhere that Doubront isn't as promising as some posters seem to think. His stuff simply isn't that good. Morales is inconsistent. I'll believe that Lester is back on track when I see it -- either in his remaining starts this year or next year. To me, his arm seems to have lost something. His pitches don't move. That is rare for a lefty. I hope I'm wrong. 
    You can guess where I'm going. Unless the Sox haul in two -- yup, two -- top guys for the rotation, this club is in for continued doldrums -- even if gets SS, 1B, and one OF spot sort of right. IF. The FO should be -- and probably is -- looking down the road, in spite of all protestations to the contrary. Right, flubbed clubs have turned it around the year after a crash. But two years in a row -- spectacularly. Injuries and sub-par performances have hurt a lot -- but really lousy pitching 
    did in surprisingly good performances from four or five add-ons. 
    SO -- the club should seriously consider trying to get a good return for Salty. ( Maybe it did at the deadline. Maybe it didn't. We have no idea what was really going on. ) Given the small sample, I doubt that anyone in the organization is saying of Lavarnway, "So much for that." OTOH, I'd be surprised is anyone is saying, "Bingo." His play so far has at the very least raised questions about his bat and his defense -- including handing the staff. ( That does not mean "dump" him, Boom; it means only what it says. ) If the club decides upon serious rebuilding, might as well start behind the plate, assuming a good deal for Salty.
    Would Billy Beane answer a call from Cherrington? Friedman? Cashman? ( Ho )  I doubt that Salty would stay on the block long. 
     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    I'd trade Salty (+ $$), Aviles, Brentz, & Tazawa
    For
    Brett Anderson:13:$5.5M, 14:$8M club opt ($1.5M buyout),15:$12M club opt ($1.5M buyout) 
    George Kottaras: 3 arbs left. (Hits RHPs at a 20+ HR per 650 PA rate)


    Sign: Brandon McCarthy, Jonathan Sanchez, & extend Ross as a start.
     
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    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    Salty's CERA took an awful beating last night.
     
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    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    Can we get a longer look at George Kottaras, a guy who took a lot of abuse but batted ok in his short run with Sox...
     
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    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

    Salty's CERA took an awful beating last night.



    So he his CERA really degraded recently...dump him immediately! JK.

    I don't believe much in what a catcher has done defensively "recently". He didn't have an epiphany in the last 3 months. His CS percentage actually dropped by 33%. The only significant part of his game is the HR, which have been shown historically to be a streaky thing with many players. Got to admit that the above noted 39 HR pace over 0ver 600 AB is impressive as heck though.

    Maybe the Sox just want to get some value for him before they lose control of him. A lot of his HR have been over the monster where maybe those balls are not HR in some parks. Maybe he is most valuable to the Sox, as compared to other teams. I'm not against the guy. I just do not like banking on him going forward. Or paying him for a long term deal when the sample size has been significant over his mlb career even though so many still look at him as a developing player. I understand that some catchers often take longer to develop, even most, but he is 27 and he has been catching since he was like 18. He has had time. He is what he is except for possibly the HR, as he is now obtaining his peak "man" strength.
     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from expitch. Show expitch's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

    Salty's CERA took an awful beating last night.



    So he his CERA really degraded recently...dump him immediately! JK.

    I don't believe much in what a catcher has done defensively "recently". He didn't have an epiphany in the last 3 months. His CS percentage actually dropped by 33%. The only significant part of his game is the HR, which have been shown historically to be a streaky thing with many players. Got to admit that the above noted 39 HR pace over 0ver 600 AB is impressive as heck though.

    Maybe the Sox just want to get some value for him before they lose control of him. A lot of his HR have been over the monster where maybe those balls are not HR in some parks. Maybe he is most valuable to the Sox, as compared to other teams. I'm not against the guy. I just do not like banking on him going forward. Or paying him for a long term deal when the sample size has been significant over his mlb career even though so many still look at him as a developing player. I understand that some catchers often take longer to develop, even most, but he is 27 and he has been catching since he was like 18. He has had time. He is what he is except for possibly the HR, as he is now obtaining his peak "man" strength.

     

    [/QUOTE]
    The record shows that some catchers take time to develop AFTER they become ML starters. Tek is only one example. Salty is in his second year at a starter.
    Have you charted WHERE Salty's homers cleared the Monster and by how far?
    What developing players are doing and, in Salty's case has been doing for several months, "recently" is very important. You may not use that yardstick for evaluation, but teams do. It's an important factor in decisions about personnel. 
    CS ranks low on criteria for evaluating catchers. The Sox pitchers are still not good at holding runners on. You never seem to consider that variable. It's a big one.
    You disagree with several of us about how much Salty has improved. As Moon says, you seem unwilling even to consider the case.
    Most HR hitters are streaky, but when the homer is bashed, it counts. ( Moon has shown that many of Salty's homers have been in critical spots. ) So do the totals. A catcher who ends with 25-30 homers is special. 
    You think Salty has plateaued. I doubt that. He may even regress. I doubt that too.
    Let's wait to see what the Sox do about the position. Let's wait to see what Salty does, in Boston or elsewhere.
     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    When I have an opinion which is more in line with just about every other forum in baseball I'm the one who is unwilling to even consider your viewpoints? I get it. Nothing I ever say or do is going to change your minds. Go to soxprospects or any other major baseball forum and see what they think about Salty. We are homers here when it comes to Salty. He is not that well regarded in baseball. Overall. When he was on his HR binge he was considered maybe a breakthrough player but he has come back to earth.

    His HR numbers are great. No doubt. And that may continue or even improve further. GREAT. He is of some value but he is under control for a little over 1 more year and are you guys willing to pony up some FA cash for this guy in a long term deal? I'm not even willing to give him a $6 mil contract for next year. Overall, he isn't worth it to me. Shoppach was a less than $1.5 mil deal. Is Salty worth 4 times as much as Shoppach was? Do we have CONFIDENCE that Salty keeps improving?

    To me, we are CLEARLY in rebuild mode. We should keep playing Lavarnway and see what we have got. Including at catcher. That's what I wanted to do 2 months ago. I think that projection was rather correct. We are not going to make the playoffs any time soon.

    BTW, several months ago I did look at Salty's scatter chart and at least 8 or 9 of those HR were in Fenway to left field. And most were not over the monster by much. His HR numbers were probably helped significantly by Fenway. Ergo, he is more valuable to us that to other teams potentially.

    But there are teams like LA out there. Keep working it Ben!

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:
    [QUOTE]

     

    When I have an opinion which is more in line with just about every other forum in baseball I'm the one who is unwilling to even consider your viewpoints? I get it. Nothing I ever say or do is going to change your minds. Go to soxprospects or any other major baseball forum and see what they think about Salty. We are homers here when it comes to Salty. He is not that well regarded in baseball. Overall. When he was on his HR binge he was considered maybe a breakthrough player but he has come back to earth.

    His HR numbers are great. No doubt. And that may continue or even improve further. GREAT. He is of some value but he is under control for a little over 1 more year and are you guys willing to pony up some FA cash for this guy in a long term deal? I'm not even willing to give him a $6 mil contract for next year. Overall, he isn't worth it to me. Shoppach was a less than $1.5 mil deal. Is Salty worth 4 times as much as Shoppach was? Do we have CONFIDENCE that Salty keeps improving?

    To me, we are CLEARLY in rebuild mode. We should keep playing Lavarnway and see what we have got. Including at catcher. That's what I wanted to do 2 months ago. I think that projection was rather correct. We are not going to make the playoffs any time soon.

    BTW, several months ago I did look at Salty's scatter chart and at least 8 or 9 of those HR were in Fenway to left field. And most were not over the monster by much. His HR numbers were probably helped significantly by Fenway. Ergo, he is more valuable to us that to other teams potentially.

    But there are teams like LA out there. Keep working it Ben!

     

    [/QUOTE]

    1. Salty scatter chart
    2. http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/player/jarrod-saltalamacchia/hitchart/443871?q=jarrod-saltalamacchia




     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In response to dannycater's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Can we get a longer look at George Kottaras, a guy who took a lot of abuse but batted ok in his short run with Sox...

    I always liked George. I remember harness saying he was one of the worst staff-handlers he'd ever seen, and he was too raw to be with a team like the Sox on a learning curve.
     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from expitch. Show expitch's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:
    [QUOTE]

     

    When I have an opinion which is more in line with just about every other forum in baseball I'm the one who is unwilling to even consider your viewpoints? I get it. Nothing I ever say or do is going to change your minds. Go to soxprospects or any other major baseball forum and see what they think about Salty. We are homers here when it comes to Salty. He is not that well regarded in baseball. Overall. When he was on his HR binge he was considered maybe a breakthrough player but he has come back to earth.

    His HR numbers are great. No doubt. And that may continue or even improve further. GREAT. He is of some value but he is under control for a little over 1 more year and are you guys willing to pony up some FA cash for this guy in a long term deal? I'm not even willing to give him a $6 mil contract for next year. Overall, he isn't worth it to me. Shoppach was a less than $1.5 mil deal. Is Salty worth 4 times as much as Shoppach was? Do we have CONFIDENCE that Salty keeps improving?

    To me, we are CLEARLY in rebuild mode. We should keep playing Lavarnway and see what we have got. Including at catcher. That's what I wanted to do 2 months ago. I think that projection was rather correct. We are not going to make the playoffs any time soon.

    BTW, several months ago I did look at Salty's scatter chart and at least 8 or 9 of those HR were in Fenway to left field. And most were not over the monster by much. His HR numbers were probably helped significantly by Fenway. Ergo, he is more valuable to us that to other teams potentially.

    But there are teams like LA out there. Keep working it Ben!

     

    [/QUOTE]

    1. Salty scatter chart
    2. http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/player/jarrod-saltalamacchia/hitchart/443871?q=jarrod-saltalamacchia




     

    [/QUOTE]
    Were Salty's homers right down the line, in dead left, or in left center? I recall bombs to left center. After you figure it all out, how many of Salty's homers will you subtract as "Fenway homers"? How many are you sure would have been caught elsewhere. Where? If you are going to subtract homers or put them in context, the context must be complete and very specific.
    Have you noticed that Salty has also launched


    long flies to no man's land in Fenway that have been caught? Where would they have ended up in Yankee Stadium or Camden Yards or Philly or.... You are not allowed to talk about Fenway homers until you are absolutely certain that at least some of them would not have gone out elsewhere. 
    Of all the cases you've tried to make against Salty, this one is the most strained, and that is saying something. The man needs to improve his batting, but he has thunder in his bat.
    Baseball people are not always right, even in consensus. Want examples, especially of the "special player" kind?
    Another of your straw men, another of your specialties next to overreach. NO ONE has flatly recommended that Salty be given a fat extension or a fat FA contract. Moon has cited it as one of many possibilities. So has Southpaw. If you are going to argue with us, please argue with that we say. Southpaw has nicked you on this point several times. So have I. So, I think, has Moon.
    If we "clearly" in rebuild mode, the Sox will decide who will be included. Salty might be in the team's mind. Lava too. Maybe both. Maybe only one. Maybe neither. Maybe.... I've already said that you may be right. What you do want? "Boom is certain to be right on this one."
    I said above that if the Sox intend to go full bore in rebuilding, and IF they think that Lava is the man behind the plate, they should trade Salty because he will probably bring something worth trading for. I allow for that possibility. So do others who rate Salty as a player higher now ( and improving ) than do you and your sources. 
    Give it a rest. You'll exhaust yourself shadow boxing.
     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    So he his CERA really degraded recently...dump him immediately! JK. 


    Yes, his post April 25th CERA has dipped from about 4.13 to 4.35 with the two recent blowouts.
    Remember though, his ERA after the first 12 games was 7.24. 
    His CERA before: 7.24.

    His CERA after: 4.35.
    Season:
    Lava's CERA: 5.19
    Salty's CERA: 4.84
    Shopp CERA: 3.77 (Shopp's CERA after April 25th: 3.93)

    I don't believe much in what a catcher has done defensively "recently". He didn't have an epiphany in the last 3 months.


    That's clearly your opinion. Maybe "epiphany" is a loaded word, but the numbers show a stark contrast that you seem to want to ignore:

    Salty from 2011 to April 25, 2012:  4.88 (That includes 2011 with a much better staff than now.)
    Salty's numbers from 4/25 2012:   4.35



    His CS percentage actually dropped by 33%.


    Maybe I'm looking at the wrong numbers, but baseball ref has him at 20% (66 SBs/16 Cs). His career number before this year was 24%. I guess if you go by his 2011 rate of 31%, yes, it went down by about 33%.  I guess I just think you are blowing this stat way our of proportion. We're talking about 8-9 more SBs from if he had a 31% rate or 3-4 more than his career rate of 24%.


    The only significant part of his game is the HR, which have been shown historically to be a streaky thing with many players. Got to admit that the above noted 39 HR pace over 0ver 600 AB is impressive as heck though. 


    You don't think going from 26 PBs in 856 IP to 5 PBs in 731 IP is significant?
    I'd say it is huge AND VERY SIGNIFICANT improvement worth mentioning.
    He's also gone from 41 to 23 WPs.
    PB + WP combined:

    67 to 28  (39 less)
    Sorry, but this is a huge part of a catchers game and way outweighs 4-9 extra SBs.


    Maybe the Sox just want to get some value for him before they lose control of him. A lot of his HR have been over the monster where maybe those balls are not HR in some parks.


    He has 12 road HRs and 11 Home HRs. Maybe he had some line drives that would have been HRs elsewhere but were dbls in Fenway. 


    Maybe he is most valuable to the Sox, as compared to other teams. I'm not against the guy. I just do not like banking on him going forward. Or paying him for a long term deal when the sample size has been significant over his mlb career even though so many still look at him as a developing player.


    Before 2011, his ML  innings caught were very very scattered.  Yes, there are catchers that learned faster and earlier, but there are many that took up to age 30 to have an "epiphany" of sorts like VTek.



    I understand that some catchers often take longer to develop, even most, but he is 27 and he has been catching since he was like 18. He has had time.


    So did VTek, but it took him 3-4 years more.  Also, there was a brief stretch that Atlanta had Salty practice and play 1B.


    He is what he is except for possibly the HR, as he is now obtaining his peak "man" strength.


    He might be "what he is", but there is certainly still a very good chance he keeps improving on offense and defense. You want to bench a guy batting about 40 Hrs per 650 ABs over the past 3 years. You want to bench a guy who has cut his PB/Wps in half from 2011 to 2012. You want to bench a guy who has shaved a half a run off his CERA the last 4 months with a worse staff than we had before. You want to bench a guy with 1 month and 1 year left on his contract, not really knowing if he "is what he is" or not in favor of a kid who clearly looks, granted in a small sample size, like he needs a lot more development behind the plate and handling a staff. Most catchers learn that in the minors, and then come up to the bigs.

    While 27/28 is the usual peak for OPS, many players have more HRs from age 28-32 than at26- 27.
     

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