Time to Bench Salty

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    Looking at the scatter shot charts in Fenway, I found this:

    No Hrs right down the LF line.

    HRs to LF:
    345 ft
    355 ft

    HRs to LF/CF:
    355 ft 

    HR to CF:
    383
    393
    410

    HRs to RF/CF:
    408
    410

    HRs to RF:
    381
    390
    384

    Then there is this:

    390 ft fly out to CF
    370 ft flyout to R-CF
    355 ft flyout to R-CF
    410 ft DBl in triangle
    398 ft DBL in triangle
    360 ft DBL RF
    365 ft DBL in L-CF




     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from expitch. Show expitch's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    Naughty you, Moon, being a killjoy -- or, in this case, just the opposite. Another zip -- amongst many -- on overreach for the boy. I'd have been amazed if anyone except Boom posted qualifications about THAT power bat.
     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from craze4sox. Show craze4sox's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In response to moonslav59 comment:

    Looking at the scatter shot charts in Fenway, I found this:

    No Hrs right down the LF line.

    HRs to LF:
    345 ft
    355 ft

    HRs to LF/CF:
    355 ft 

    HR to CF:
    383
    393
    410

    HRs to RF/CF:
    408
    410

    HRs to RF:
    381
    390
    384

    Then there is this:

    390 ft fly out to CF
    370 ft flyout to R-CF
    355 ft flyout to R-CF
    410 ft DBl in triangle
    398 ft DBL in triangle
    360 ft DBL RF
    365 ft DBL in L-CF



    Salty should be given at least one more year in Boston to improve his plate discipline and help Lav with the staff, but no longer as a starter even if Lav doesn't work out.  His OBP is hard enough to carry, couple that with his defense "although improved" and arm tells me we can do better. 

    I think a Lav/Salty combo would be a friendly competition but adding a Y. Molina "if available" would be great for the staff and team. 

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In response to expitch's comment:

    Naughty you, Moon, being a killjoy -- or, in this case, just the opposite. Another zip -- amongst many -- on overreach for the boy. I'd have been amazed if anyone except Boom posted qualifications about THAT power bat.



    I guess now I'm supposed to be blind also. Look at the scatter charts again ok. I CLEARLY SEE 6 HR to LF and around 2 to Left CF/CF. NOT 2 HR to LF by any stretch of the imagination. Moon is just wrong on that one.

    Expitch, maybe some day you can extract your nose out of Moon's behind at some point. You agree with him automatically, apparently without even looking......."boy".
     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    It's like he wants to discount or lessen every one of Salty's skills or areas of improvement to make the Lava choice look better. Salty certainly has weaknesses, as do almost all players, especially catchers. 

    The fact is, he has 39 HRs in his last 625 ABs or so. That is an amazing feat for a catcher. He's cone from 67 to 28 PBs+ WPs over the last year. He's lessened his CERA by a half a run since April 25th, but all that matters is 8-9 more SBs and some metrics that shows he is a bad defensive catcher over the full season and over his whole career.

    I don't get why anyone needs to chop down someone else so another looks better. Even if Salty doesn't improve anymore from here on out, hitting 35 HRs per 150 games is enough to offset several other offensive flaws. He is now a decent fielding catcher with throwing issues who has seemed to learn how to call a good game and manage the staff much better than he did before. 4 months is a decent sample size, but before we decide to extend or trade him, I'd like to see more. Boom has seen enough. I think what I see now is better than most MLB catchers today can give. Perhaps Lava can give more someday, perhaps not, but there is no hurry on finding out who Lava can become. If he is what most of us think he can be, he will become a fine catcher. However, if he does not, and we have traded away Salty based on an incomplete information, then that would be a shame. Catchers are not easy to find or develop. This is not an easy choice to make, and I can see the merit in giving Lava a long look starting right now. Salty's value is pretty high right now in terms of trade value. Having just one arb year left makes it a tough call. It's too early to know about extending him, especially at a high price, but my guess is that if we do extend him at a reasonable rate, we could always trade him later, unless he falls flat on his face. More likely, we will trade him this winter and pin all our hopes on Lava and later, Swihart. I'm Ok with that, especially since I seriously doubt we can become competitive in 2013 and Salty will likely test the FA market in 2014. This does not mean, we should bench Salty now. He seems to be back in an HR groove (3 in his last 47 ABs and 2 in his last 11), and if he could get to 30 or so, his trade value could rise a lot, extended or not. 
     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    What does Salty have in terms of doubles ...maybe 15? In Fenway, the doubles capital of baseball? An OBP of .285?

    His only strength is HR and there is a strong chance that some of that is mainly just from a recent streak. He is of value. He is not worthless. But he may well have peaked for his career. And we have had a pretty long look at him by now.

    My whole point is that Lavarnway deserves a good look. Maybe he is better. He has produced better in the minors than Salty ever did. We are going nowhere this season. We should be playing every rookie who has a chance at mlb right now. And especially Lavarnway considering we only have another year of control over Salty.
     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to expitch's comment:

    Naughty you, Moon, being a killjoy -- or, in this case, just the opposite. Another zip -- amongst many -- on overreach for the boy. I'd have been amazed if anyone except Boom posted qualifications about THAT power bat.



    I guess now I'm supposed to be blind also. Look at the scatter charts again ok. I CLEARLY SEE 6 HR to LF and around 2 to Left CF/CF. NOT 2 HR to LF by any stretch of the imagination. Moon is just wrong on that one.

    Expitch, maybe some day you can extract your nose out of Moon's behind at some point. You agree with him automatically, apparently without even looking......."boy".

     

    No, I am not clearly wrong.

    Please go back and look again. Place your cursor over each little square, and you will see that a few of them appear to be HRs were actually singles or dbls off the wall. He has No HRs down the LF line, 2 in LF at the lenghts I listed, and 1 in L-CF. Those 3 were between 345 and 355 ft. While those may not be HRs in every park, there are 3-4 outs and dbls out near the triangle that would have been HRs in almost any other park.

    I just don't get why you are reaching and stretching to make Salty look worse than he is. He has some towering HRs. Most of his HRs this year were in close games- not like the HRs some other players on our team.
     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    Am I right on the HR to left?

    YES

    4 people contradicting my every comment does not change the FACT that a lot of Salty's HR have been to LF in Fenway. NOT 2 HR to left. 6 HR to left.

    I've cited many other defensive stats regarding Salty from the NEGATIVE dWAR, to the -8 DRS....etc. He IS A DEFENSIVE LIABILITY. PERIOD.

    I have to go. I don't have time to argue.

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    What does Salty have in terms of doubles ...maybe 15? In Fenway, the doubles capital of baseball? An OBP of .285? 

    Yeah, let's dump him for hitting HRs instead of Dbls.

    Hijole!

    FYI:

    Sox Extra base hits per PA: (all Sox players with 200+ PAs)

    Ortiz    .128
    Ross    .115
    Midds  .101
    Salty    .099
    AGon    .099
    Sween .086
    Pedey  .089
    Nava    .085
    Aviles  .082
    Ellsb    .082

    Salty is not helped much by Fenway...

    Away extra base hits per PAs:
    Midds  .106
    Salty   .103
    Ortiz   .089
    Pedey .080
    AGon  .079
    Aviles .073
    Nava   .071
    Ross   .067

    As you can see, discounting Salty's numbers because of Fenway looks counter intuitive.

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from expitch. Show expitch's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    No, you don't have the goods to argue. Knock off the typical vulgarity -- Moon's behind. If we were face to face, I'd kick yours. 
     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from expitch. Show expitch's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to expitch's comment:

    Naughty you, Moon, being a killjoy -- or, in this case, just the opposite. Another zip -- amongst many -- on overreach for the boy. I'd have been amazed if anyone except Boom posted qualifications about THAT power bat.



    I guess now I'm supposed to be blind also. Look at the scatter charts again ok. I CLEARLY SEE 6 HR to LF and around 2 to Left CF/CF. NOT 2 HR to LF by any stretch of the imagination. Moon is just wrong on that one.

    Expitch, maybe some day you can extract your nose out of Moon's behind at some point. You agree with him automatically, apparently without even looking......."boy".

     

    [/QUOTE]
    Moon is consistently reliable. You are consistently selective.
     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from expitch. Show expitch's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:
    [QUOTE]

     

    Am I right on the HR to left?

    YES

    4 people contradicting my every comment does not change the FACT that a lot of Salty's HR have been to LF in Fenway. NOT 2 HR to left. 6 HR to left.

    I've cited many other defensive stats regarding Salty from the NEGATIVE dWAR, to the -8 DRS....etc. He IS A DEFENSIVE LIABILITY. PERIOD.

    I have to go. I don't have time to argue.

     

    [/QUOTE]
    Nope. Moon took several factors into consideration and was very careful with the numbers.  Now you run back to defensive stats, because you got whipped on the long-ball issue.
    You didn't both to consider which of Salty's homers to left might have gone out in other parks, or which of long flies caught in Fenway would either have been hits or homers elsewhere.
    Next time you go, stay gone. The tone of the board would be improved immensely without your low-life imagery and voice of authority that has not been earned either by your baseball experience ( Little League terror ) or your posting history. 
    In argument, you're a patsy. And a cry-baby. ( No, no, it was my kid's reputation. Hooey. ) And a maker of straw men. And....
     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from craze4sox. Show craze4sox's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In response to moonslav59 comment:

    It's like he wants to discount or lessen every one of Salty's skills or areas of improvement to make the Lava choice look better. Salty certainly has weaknesses, as do almost all players, especially catchers. 

    The fact is, he has 39 HRs in his last 625 ABs or so. That is an amazing feat for a catcher. He's cone from 67 to 28 PBs+ WPs over the last year. He's lessened his CERA by a half a run since April 25th, but all that matters is 8-9 more SBs and some metrics that shows he is a bad defensive catcher over the full season and over his whole career.

    I don't get why anyone needs to chop down someone else so another looks better. Even if Salty doesn't improve anymore from here on out, hitting 35 HRs per 150 games is enough to offset several other offensive flaws. He is now a decent fielding catcher with throwing issues who has seemed to learn how to call a good game and manage the staff much better than he did before. 4 months is a decent sample size, but before we decide to extend or trade him, I'd like to see more. Boom has seen enough. I think what I see now is better than most MLB catchers today can give. Perhaps Lava can give more someday, perhaps not, but there is no hurry on finding out who Lava can become. If he is what most of us think he can be, he will become a fine catcher. However, if he does not, and we have traded away Salty based on an incomplete information, then that would be a shame. Catchers are not easy to find or develop. This is not an easy choice to make, and I can see the merit in giving Lava a long look starting right now. Salty's value is pretty high right now in terms of trade value. Having just one arb year left makes it a tough call. It's too early to know about extending him, especially at a high price, but my guess is that if we do extend him at a reasonable rate, we could always trade him later, unless he falls flat on his face. More likely, we will trade him this winter and pin all our hopes on Lava and later, Swihart. I'm Ok with that, especially since I seriously doubt we can become competitive in 2013 and Salty will likely test the FA market in 2014. This does not mean, we should bench Salty now. He seems to be back in an HR groove (3 in his last 47 ABs and 2 in his last 11), and if he could get to 30 or so, his trade value could rise a lot, extended or not. 



    moon,

    Settling on mediocrity just because other teams do, or looking at a SLG percentage and time spent with a staff is what ended Teks career and he was a lot better overall than Salty.  Having a catcher like Y. Molina would not only improve our staff and team but open the eyes of those who try and find anything good in all the weaknesses our catchers have had for years.

    Thats the last comment I will make about Salty.
     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    Moon, I do a mouseover on the chart and I see nothing. I usually use Macs but I can look on a PC at the office Monday. I trust your veracity. I see what looks like at least 6 HR on my screen with zero mouseover effect but I'm sure you are telling the truth. Extremely misleading chart then.
     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    I've tried to spell the word "h.i.t" about 5 times in the last 2 days and it keeps asking me to change it. Ridiculous.

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    It even bumps me just with the letter "s" sometimes, with or without combo words. The new system has a way to go.
     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    It's always so pleasant to talk with expitch. He starts off calling me "boy" without being provoked and then goes on with 3-4 other names and doesn't feel it's appropriate for me to respond. You get what you deserve expitch. You are incapable of having a reasonable discussion when someone disagrees with you.

     
     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    This is at least 3000 posts for you expitch over multiple identities. Do you think you could bring yourself to actually figure out how to post an avatar yet?

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    Salty CERA - Last among qualifying catchers ( ESPN ):

    http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/fielding/_/position/c/sort/catcherERA

    #82 CERA out of all catchers in baseball ( 100 ) even for guys who caught only 1 game:

    http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/fielding/_/position/c/sort/catcherERA/count/81/qualified/false/order/false

    Last in CS percentage ( Qualifying catchers ):

    http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/fielding/_/position/c/sort/catcherCaughtStealingPct

    Last in dWAR among qualifying catchers:

    http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/fielding/_/position/c/sort/defWARBR/qualified/true/order/true


    It's not like there isn't ample data to support my position.
     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    Moon, I do a mouseover on the chart and I see nothing. I usually use Macs but I can look on a PC at the office Monday. I trust your veracity. I see what looks like at least 6 HR on my screen with zero mouseover effect but I'm sure you are telling the truth. Extremely misleading chart then.



    boom, I checked again. The chart is deceptive, because it shows some wall singles and doubles looking like HRS. When I hold my cursor over each square, it shows the distance and type of H.I.T it was.


    No HRs right down the LF line.

    HRs to LF:
    345 ft
    355 ft

    HRs to LF/CF:
    355 ft 

    HR to CF:
    383
    393
    410

    HRs to RF/CF:
    408
    410

    HRs to RF:
    381
    390
    384

    Yes, the HR to left-center field is a hair more to LF than CF, so I guess you can say he has 3 HRs to LF, but hitting an HR to left-center field 355 ft away over that big wall is not a "Fenway HR".


    Then there is this:

    390 ft fly out to CF
    370 ft flyout to R-CF
    355 ft flyout to R-CF
    410 ft DBl in triangle
    398 ft DBL in triangle
    360 ft DBL RF
    365 ft DBL in L-CF 

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    Salty CERA - Last among qualifying catchers ( ESPN ): 

    http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/fielding/_/position/c/sort/catcherERA 

    Boom, CERA is not a stat that should be used to compare catchers from different teams with different staffs, in different parks, vs different opponents. It is a highly restrictive stat that is best used only to compare two catchers on the same team.


     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    #82 CERA out of all catchers in baseball ( 100 ) even for guys who caught only 1 game: 

    http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/fielding/_/position/c/sort/catcherERA/count/81/qualified/false/order/false

    Including being ahead of the guy you want: Lava, right?


     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    Last in CS percentage ( Qualifying catchers ): 

    http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/fielding/_/position/c/sort/catcherCaughtStealingPct 

    Why use 82 catchers for one stat, 100 for another, and then 15 for this one? There are only 15 catchers with over 700 innings caught, but there are 30 teams in MLb and, in theory, 30 starting catchers?

    Salty has allowed 66 SB and has 16 CS.  19.5%

    Going to 500+ innings, there are 28 catchers and 

    Bararas has let up as many SBs as Salty, but in 40 less innings, so he's not on your list, and he has only 6 CS compared to salty's 16. That's way worse than Salty.
    Jesus Flores has allowed 47 SBs and has only 6 CS.  11.3%
    Napoli 38 and 9.  19.1%
    Mauer 49 and 6.  10.9%
    Castro 46 and 6.  11.5%
    There are several other catchers very close to Salty's numbers who don't pitch for a team that for yars de-emphasized holding runners on base, and still are the worst in the league at doing so.



     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    Last in dWAR among qualifying catchers: 

    http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/fielding/_/position/c/sort/defWARBR/qualified/true/order/true


    I go to fangraphs, set the screen to value and look at the list of the defensive part of their WAR and Salty places: (Salty has 375 PAs so far.)
    9th out of 16 (catchers with 350+ PAs)
    12th out of 22 (catchers with 300+ PAs)
    15th out of 27 (250+)


    It's not like there isn't ample data to support my position.


    Boom, 2 of you points here are about CERA as compared to other catchers, 16 of which teams play in a league without a DH, and about 25 teams that play in more of a pitcher's park than ours, and most who have better pitching staffs than ours. Another point is based on about 8-9 SBs more than he might have had with a decent CS rate. There are 7 catchers who have 9+ more PB/WPs than Salty.

    Do you really think Salty is the #30 defensive catcher in MLB?
    #25?
    #20?
     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    moon, 

    Settling on mediocrity just because other teams do, or looking at a SLG percentage and time spent with a staff is what ended Teks career and he was a lot better overall than Salty.  Having a catcher like Y. Molina would not only improve our staff and team but open the eyes of those who try and find anything good in all the weaknesses our catchers have had for years. 

    Thats the last comment I will make about Salty.

    I see it this way: right now, I'd say salty is about average or "mediocre" on defense out of the top 30 MLB catchers, and for me that includes handling a staff.

    I see Salty as about #12 out of the top 30 catchers on offense.

    #2 in HRs (1 behind the leader)
    #12 in RBIs, but less PAs than most ahead of him (some by 100+ more).
    #9 in runs, but again with many less PAs than most ahead of him.
    #15 in WAR (0.2 from #11)
    #21 in OBP
    #6 in SLG%
    #13 in OPS

    He's a little above average overall, but has improved greatly on defense and a little on offense, and is just 27.

    I wish i could say this is the last I will say about salty.

     

Share