Time to Bench Salty

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from expitch. Show expitch's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    It's always so pleasant to talk with expitch. He starts off calling me "boy" without being provoked and then goes on with 3-4 other names and doesn't feel it's appropriate for me to respond. You get what you deserve expitch. You are incapable of having a reasonable discussion when someone disagrees with you.
    You are free to respond in any pathetic way you like. I call you boy because you throw tantrums.

     

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from expitch. Show expitch's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    This is at least 3000 posts for you expitch over multiple identities. Do you think you could bring yourself to actually figure out how to post an avatar yet?


    One does not have any obligation to figure out what one chooses not to do.  Even if YOU require or desire it.  
    Multiple identities? One of them could be the buy who lied about pitching for USC. He signed under "expitch." Who are the others?
    You are even nuttier than I had previously thought. 
     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In response to expitch's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    This is at least 3000 posts for you expitch over multiple identities. Do you think you could bring yourself to actually figure out how to post an avatar yet?


    One does not have any obligation to figure out what one chooses not to do.  Even if YOU require or desire it.  
    Multiple identities? One of them could be the buy who lied about pitching for USC. He signed under "expitch." Who are the others?
    You are even nuttier than I had previously thought. 

     

    [/QUOTE]

    I went back to research an issue from a year or 2 ago and there it was, another expitch. for 300 or so posts.
     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    I understand how CERA should be used at least as well as you Moon. It's not intended as an insult but lately you discount my knowledge? The larger the sample the more statistically valid it is but you want to use the smaller sample size ( the whole "well since April 24th he has gotten so much better thing" ), and now even citing Lavarnway's puny 20 game or whatever sample size this year. I disagree with several of you and it's like I'm nit picking stats (when I'm not, i just go to ESPN.com and look under CERA and pow Salty comes up last under qualifying catchers). And now I don't understand the stats? You should know better than that. We disagaree on Salty but I do understand the numbers.

    ESPN is a reputable source and I go there and within seconds I see one number after another showing that Salty is really bad on defense but you see some other numbers so I'm definitely wrong right? I'm not trying to argue. I just have an opinion which has a bunch of data behind it but several of you just want to go to the ends of the earth to discount it, minimize it, discredit it...etc. It's 2 positions which both have some supporting data and validity to them but mine doesn't count right? Mine is somehow invalid?

    That's how it seems. My data and position is very well grounded regarding Salty and BTW is more in line with positions on other respected forums ( I would say other MORE respected forums. This is more of a rookie wannabe forum ). Do they know what they are talking about on soxprospects.com? I think so. Virtually none of them think Salty is good on D.

    As i've said before we can agree to disagree. I respect your opinion Moon and even acquiesce to your veracity when my screen shows zero mouseover and the graphics sure look like the balls are over the fence. MLB.com used to have the same sort of charts ( if I remember correctly ) where you could sort for HR, doubles ...etc. It used to show HR in the same way only sortable by the HR only. I can't find those charts any more for some reason but they were very similar in their displays.

    Anyway, why don't we just let this thread die. It is worthy of it.
     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    I understand how CERA should be used at least as well as you Moon. It's not intended as an insult but lately you discount my knowledge? The larger the sample the more statistically valid it is but you want to use the smaller sample size ( the whole "well since April 24th he has gotten so much better thing" ), and now even citing Lavarnway's puny 20 game or whatever sample size this year. I disagree with several of you and it's like I'm nit picking stats (when I'm not, i just go to ESPN.com and look under CERA and pow Salty comes up last under qualifying catchers). And now I don't understand the stats? You should know better than that. We disagaree on Salty but I do understand the numbers. 


    I did not intend to be demeaning, boom. You know I respect you and have agreed with you many many times in the past, however, using the CERA as a league comparison is just plain wrong. You won't find one proponent of the CERA stat saying it should ever be used in that manner. It is a highly restrictive stat due to its limited usage.

    Comparing how one catcher does in a league with no DH, a totally different pitching staff, a totally different team fielding behind the pitcher, and various home park sizes vs Salty's CERA is not worthy of even mentioning. Sorry for sounding blunt, but there is no justification for using that stat as tool of judgement. If you want to compare Salty to Shoppach using CERA, that's fair game.

    ESPN is a reputable source and I go there and within seconds I see one number after another showing that Salty is really bad on defense but you see some other numbers so I'm definitely wrong right?


    All I said was that fangraphz WAR showed a different ranking, and that you are adjusting your sample size of catchers listed to suit your position. You go from 82 to 100 to 14 or 15. Saying Salty is "the worst catcher in MLB" when the list is only 14-15 long is very deceptive. I try to use the top 30 catchers in every area I judge Salty by, so there is consistency in the sample size.


    I'm not trying to argue. I just have an opinion which has a bunch of data behind it but several of you just want to go to the ends of the earth to discount it, minimize it, discredit it...etc.


    We all have done this, boom. Are you discounting fangraphz? Minimizing the use of a 30 catcher sample size?

    It's 2 positions which both have some supporting data and validity to them but mine doesn't count right? Mine is somehow invalid? 


    No, the difference is that you act like your data proves you are right, and we act like our data indicates that Salty appears to be improving and should get a longer look. I have repeatedly said you may end up being right, and that Salty "might have peaked" or that the sample size after April 25th may be a fluke, and that was part of the reason I wanted him to play more, so the sample size was longer and the durability issue might be answered to a better extent. When Salty's post April CERA began to rise a little a few weeks ago, I mentioned it as a possible sign that his stamina was possibly faltering.

    When I brought up Lava's poor numbers, I mentioned the sample size was too small to judge, but it is the same sample size as Salt'y first 12 games this year that you want to include in all of your Salty data points. You refuse to even acknowledge that Salty has improved since April and 2011. Forget the data. Watching the games will show he is was better than 2011. He's cut his PB+WP in half. That alone is amazing. I don't think you have even mentioned or responded to that point.


    That's how it seems. My data and position is very well grounded regarding Salty and BTW is more in line with positions on other respected forums ( I would say other MORE respected forums. This is more of a rookie wannabe forum ). Do they know what they are talking about on soxprospects.com? I think so. Virtually none of them think Salty is good on D. 

    Has soxprospects.com mentioned anything about Salty progressing, staying the same or declining this year? Has anybody else even bothered to notice a change since April? A 4 month sample size may not be a clear indicator of future growth, but it is a large enough sample size to be significant and worthy of trying to discover if it will continue in the right direction or not. Since Salty's contract is up after 2013, there is a much greater urgency, IMO, to put him to the test than Lava. As I have said, I undestand the play Lava now position. It would be nice to find out more about him now, but the urgency is just not there, and the opportunity for him to DH the rest of this year kind of makes this whole argument moot.

    As i've said before we can agree to disagree. I respect your opinion Moon and even acquiesce to your veracity when my screen shows zero mouseover and the graphics sure look like the balls are over the fence. MLB.com used to have the same sort of charts ( if I remember correctly ) where you could sort for HR, doubles ...etc. It used to show HR in the same way only sortable by the HR only. I can't find those charts any more for some reason but they were very similar in their displays. 

    Boom, here's a simple test: Salty has 1 HRs in Fenway this year. Go back and count how many HRs it looks like he has on the scatter chart. That is what opened my eyes. The chart shows singles and doubles that look like HRs. When I hover my mouse over the little squares, it shows some as "single 323 ft"...

    Anyway, why don't we just let this thread die. It is worthy of it.


    I think the catcher decision is perhaps the biggest decision this team will make this offseason, except for maybe the Papi extension or a big trade/FA signing choice. It is worthy of debate and discussion. There are so many variables involved, trades to consider, platoons, swirching positions (Lava to DH or even Salty to 1B a few games). It's a lively topic.

    Again, I am sorry for sounding demeaning blunt. I am not discounting ESPN's lists, but more your choice of changing the sample size criteria. 

    I am a bit surprised that ESPN's defensive WAR has Salty ranked 94 out of 100, while fangraphs has Salty about in the middle. maybe one is right and the other is wrong. Maybe he is somewhere inbetween.
     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from EnchiladaT. Show EnchiladaT's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    Boomerfangsdotcom wants you to coddle him, he needs a hug.
     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from dannycater. Show dannycater's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    If Salty had good pitchers to throw to him, he wouldn't be lumped into the bad catcher nonsense. It's not about the catcher this year, it's about some of the worst pitching we've ever seen and some of the worst managing, medical staffs, and the change of pitching coaches from a guy who has knowledge to a crony of BV. How's that working on Niemann taking over? It seems the staff couldn't be worse than right now.
     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from EnchiladaT. Show EnchiladaT's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    Anyone and everyone knows we caught lightening in a bottle with a number of these #6 starters.... and now they have collpased as one might expect from a #6 starter.  Lester is still 50/50 and that won't change this year.

    The new pitching coach cannot be blamed for this, not one iota.
     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    We needed an ace acquisition last winter. That would have moved Lester, Beckett and Buch to the 2-3-4 slots where they would compare pretty well had they had close to "normal years". That would have let Doubie be #5, Bard to close once bailey went down, and Aceves to remain the mid-long guy. We'd probably still have missed the playoffs, but we'd have been a lot better off.
     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from expitch. Show expitch's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to expitch's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    This is at least 3000 posts for you expitch over multiple identities. Do you think you could bring yourself to actually figure out how to post an avatar yet?


    One does not have any obligation to figure out what one chooses not to do.  Even if YOU require or desire it.  
    Multiple identities? One of them could be the buy who lied about pitching for USC. He signed under "expitch." Who are the others?
    You are even nuttier than I had previously thought. 

     

    [/QUOTE]You stay right after that guy.  

    I went back to research an issue from a year or 2 ago and there it was, another expitch. for 300 or so posts.

     

    [/QUOTE]


     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    1) I know how CERA is best used and I am not the only one citing it on this thread multiple times. I might add that Salty has never had good CERA numbers. This year or past years. Even with comparison to Shoppach this year, Salty's CERA is horrible. Among qualifying catchers being league worst is not good. It has never been a strength for him over multiple years, in comparison to the league or to teammates. It is a fact and yes it has SOME relevance. And I am the one who probably gives it the least amount of statistical significance compared to many others in this discussion ( with the exception of softy who appears to give it zero significance ).

    2) dWAR is different that WAR right? His dWAR stinks. His defensive value, according to ESPN.COM, is league worst among qualifying catchers. Isn't that relevant data? I think so.

    3) i was basically saying according to ESPN Moon that on their scale of all catchers 1-100 Salty came in #82 in CERA and then in their chart of all qualifying catchers ( their exact description ) they had him last on that chart. I took 2 charts from a reputable source and just cited the data. And I have used very reputable sources and significant stats such as "defensive WAR" ( where he was also last among qualifying catchers ), Caught stealing percentage ( last among qualifying catchers )and DRS ( number of runs he cost his team defensively compared to an average catcher where Salty is now up to 9 additional runs cost so far this year or tied for last ). All according to ESPN.com. I'm not citing bad sources or unimportant data. I'm citing a great source and significant data points.

    4) I have never discounted fangraphs. I have even cited fangraphs several times probably on this thread. I just disagree with you Moon, expitch, dannycater, southpaw and probably a few others. The difference in our positions is probably less than many of you think. i just thought Salty was not going to be as good as Lavarnway and wanted to bring up Lavarnway earlier. I still think Salty has value. I just want a better catcher and think Lavarnway is more lkely to become the better player, even fairly soon. And we have 5-6 years of control of Lavarnway and only a little more than 1 more year of Salty at a much more expensive cost. With the season proving to be a complete disaster now is the exact time to focus more on evaluating Lavarnway.

    5) I don't think we need to evaluate Salty's stamina any more. Or look at him as a catching prospect any more. It's always good to have more time to evaluate a player but there are realistic limits on every team. Salty might hit more HR but he's probably not going to get much better in any other area. He is what he is. He's 27 years old and he's been catching since he was 19. He is what he is.  

    I don't think the people in other forums feel the way you guys do. There was a thread on Salty a few weeks ago on sosprospects and out of roughly 27 posts the clear consensus was to play Lavarnway at the mlb level and many considered Salty as not even in the plans going forward.

    He is just not as highly rated on other forums as he is here:

    http://forum-soxprospects.com/topic/7887/Is-it-time-to-play-Lavarnway-and-Iglesias-everyday?page=1#.UEOw446vjFM 

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    1) I know how CERA is best used and I am not the only one citing it on this thread multiple times. I might add that Salty has never had good CERA numbers. This year or past years. Even with comparison to Shoppach this year, Salty's CERA is horrible. Among qualifying catchers being league worst is not good. It has never been a strength for him over multiple years, in comparison to the league or to teammates. It is a fact and yes it has SOME relevance. And I am the one who probably gives it the least amount of statistical significance compared to many others in this discussion ( with the exception of softy who appears to give it zero significance ). 

    Sorry, boom, but giving CERA the wrong significance is worse than giving it none at all. I have clearly showed that Shoppach has done better this season than Salty. I have not twisted the numbers. My point has always been that the margin of the CERA differential between salty and the other team catcher has been narrowing sharply, and that is an indicator of an improvement by Salty.  You won't even admit that any improvement in this area has happened, because Salty numbers from the first 12 games inflated his seasonal CERA, so forget the last 12 months of improvement. Forget and discount the fact that Salty has shaved off a half a run on CERA from prior to 4/15/12 with a staff that is clearly worse than last year. 

    You say you "understand CERA" then again quote that he is in last place among qualifying catchers. You have never once heard me talk about any catcher CERA compared to another team catcher... ever. As it should be.


     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    2) dWAR is different that WAR right? His dWAR stinks. His defensive value, according to ESPN.COM, is league worst among qualifying catchers. Isn't that relevant data? I think so. 

    OK, they rank him 14 out of 14, but there are not just 14 starting catchers in a 30 team league. The tools are there for you to use to make the sample size 30, but you choose to use 14 for this stat, 80 on another metric, and 100 on still another. You have yet to explain why you keep moving the criteria and sample size to fit your needs. There are 4 catchers in MLB who have the most innings caught on their team who have a worse dWAR than Salty. That still makes salty look pretty bad, but not "the worst". I'm not saying ESPN is wrong, but I am curious why you use their numbers and not fangraphs, who seem to be the most respected WAR people in the business. Fangraphs has Salty at -1.3, which ranks him 20th out of 30. (They have 7 starting catchers with a ranking below -3.0.) 

    I have not discounted you stats, just your decision to change the list size from stat to stat or metric to metric. I at least respond to your stats. You ignore mine.



     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    3) i was basically saying according to ESPN Moon that on their scale of all catchers 1-100 Salty came in #82 in CERA and then in their chart of all qualifying catchers ( their exact description ) they had him last on that chart. I took 2 charts from a reputable source and just cited the data.


    See, you are again showing a complete misuse of the CERA stat.  If you use it this way, you don't understand it. Sorry to be blunt, but CERA is useless when used this way. I never used it when VTek "led the league" in CERA. It meant nothing then, and Salty being last or near last means nothing now. Absolutely nothing. His numbers vs Shoppach and Lava are the only way CERA should be used, and even then it should be restricted to pitcher by pitcher evaluation and not overall season CERA, and to even further restrict its use, only with pitchers that both catchers have significant sample sizes with. The CERA stat is so limited that I wish I never used the term to describe the aspect of a catchers ability to get the best out of his staff. 

    And I have used very reputable sources and significant stats such as "defensive WAR" ( where he was also last among qualifying catchers ), Caught stealing percentage ( last among qualifying catchers )and DRS ( number of runs he cost his team defensively compared to an average catcher where Salty is now up to 9 additional runs cost so far this year or tied for last ). All according to ESPN.com. I'm not citing bad sources or unimportant data. I'm citing a great source and significant data points. 

    Yes, they are a reputable source, and i appreciate you changing your lingo from "worst in the league" to worst among "qualifying catchers", but I think it should noted that only 14 qualify on their list, and Salty is among the lowest in innings caught. If Lava keeps catching half the games, Salty may drop off the qualifying list, and then you can't count him at all as being the worst, since only "qualifiers" count for these specific stats and metrics, right? (He's less than 30 innings from being unjudgable.)


     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    4) I have never discounted fangraphs. I have even cited fangraphs several times probably on this thread.

    Yes, that is what I find odd. You always used fangraphs for the big Ellsbury debate with softy, but now conviently switch to ESPN for dWAR. (BTW, Salty has slipped from 16th to 20th out of 30 on fangraphs, so maybe the stamina issue is rearing its ugly head again.)

    I just disagree with you Moon, expitch, dannycater, southpaw and probably a few others. The difference in our positions is probably less than many of you think. i just thought Salty was not going to be as good as Lavarnway and wanted to bring up Lavarnway earlier. I still think Salty has value. I just want a better catcher and think Lavarnway is more lkely to become the better player, even fairly soon. And we have 5-6 years of control of Lavarnway and only a little more than 1 more year of Salty at a much more expensive cost. With the season proving to be a complete disaster now is the exact time to focus more on evaluating Lavarnway


    I understand and respect that position. It was my position last winter, based almost entirely on my assumption that Salty was horrible woth the staff, had way too many PBs and WPs, and among other things, had a poor CS rate. My view has changed as Salty has greatly improved the PB/WP issue, and shown great progress on handling the pitching staff through some tough circumstances beyond any catchers control. The CS% has gotten worse, but our staff stinks at holding runners on base.

    Salty career OPS was .701 going into 2011. He rose to .737 in 2011 and is at .755 now. There is no denying improvment on offense the last 2 years.


     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty


    ...I don't think the people in other forums feel the way you guys do. There was a thread on Salty a few weeks ago on sosprospects and out of roughly 27 posts the clear consensus was to play Lavarnway at the mlb level and many considered Salty as not even in the plans going forward. 

    Boom, I have said it is likely he is traded this winter. 

    He is just not as highly rated on other forums as he is here: 

    Maybe I have "over-rated" him. Maybe I think 39 HRs in his last 625 ABs or so is worth more than you and others. Maybe I read too much into how sad the state of the catcher position is in MLB, and tend to not want to throw the baby out with the bath water. Maybe I should value the extra 7 SB Salty has allowed over the league average (24% CS rate) more highly. Maybe 5 PBs is 5 too much, even though 24 catchers have the same or more PB than 5. Maybe I should forget that 25 catchers have allowed 20+ WP, and 16 have let up the same or more than Salty's 23. Maybe I shouldn't view going from 67 PB+WP to 29 as an incredible indicator of improvement. Maybe I should view Salty's career backwards and pretend he has gotten worse with the staff since the start of the season and up to 4/25/12.

    I have stated before that if Papi walks, we ill likely keep both catchers for 2013, and either trade Salty at the next deadline or try to extend him if he continues progress. Lava can catch the 35% of the games vs LHP, and DH vs most RHP until 2014. Salty likely walks, and the job is his. 

    If Papi stays, I will be suggesting trades of Salty like I was last year (ie as part of a larger package for Wandy Rodriguez or Gio Gonzalez).  Catcher is one of the few positions we appear to have stength in depth, and we all know we need to improve several other position
     



     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    5) I don't think we need to evaluate Salty stamina any more. Or look at him as a catching prospect any more. It's always good to have more time to evaluate a player but there are realistic limits on every team. Salty might hit more HR but he's probably not going to get much better in any other area. He is what he is. He's 27 years old and he's been catching since he was 19. He is what he is.   

    He may be, but what evidence makes you think so? 
     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    Since the Red Sox traded Shoppach they are 5-14, and have allowed 126 runs - 6.63 per game.

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:
    [QUOTE]

     

    Since the Red Sox traded Shoppach they are 5-14, and have allowed 126 runs - 6.63 per game.

     

    [/QUOTE]

    They have given up. They no longer have Beckett. Aceves is climbing up a wall. Doubront hit the expected wall, but they keep putting him out there. It's a mess that even VTek couldn't help.

    Point taken though. Salty has not helped these past few weeks in terms of helping the pitchers remain focused.



     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from dannycater. Show dannycater's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    Kelly Shoppach was the Sox MVP?
     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    Moon, as I believe you know, the people at Fangraphs state specifically that it takes a very large sample size for CERA to be statistically significant. Yet you are the one who wants to throw out the first 12 games of this year. And I'm the one who doesn't understand CERA? You even mentioned Lavarnway's first 20 games of CERA. And I'm the one who doesn't understand CERA? We've discussed this before, many times. Most analysts do not look at CERA as a definitive stat and for it to even be indicative experts want a large sample size. It can be skewed by just random luck, the quality of the pitching staff ( of course ) etc. And please don't lecture me again in how it is best used. I know it is better used on the same team with the same pitchers at the same time....etc. It is also best used over a long time period. 
     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    I've never once discounted Fangraphs and have even cited it several times on this thread if I remember correctly. I'm not cherry picking stats. We just disagree. I'm citing major stats. Extremely important stats. defensive WAR, number of runs cost defensively compared to other catchers in mlb....etc and reputable websites like ESPN and Fangraphs. I'm discussing his defense, and have said several times that his HR numbers are very impressive. Yes, the data is a little different in some areas but the most significant defensive numbers are bad everywhere.  I'm citing possibly the most important defensive stats one could cite for a catcher. And now it's gotten to a point where I just don't understand?

    This has become a useless discussion. I thnk a cogent analysis should be sufficient and I have provided just that.
     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    Moon, as I believe you know, the people at Fangraphs state specifically that it takes a very large sample size for CERA to be statistically significant. Yet you are the one who wants to throw out the first 12 games of this year. And I'm the one who doesn't understand CERA? You even mentioned Lavarnway's first 20 games of CERA. And I'm the one who doesn't understand CERA? We've discussed this before, many times. Most analysts do not look at CERA as a definitive stat and for it to even be indicative experts want a large sample size. It can be skewed by just random luck, the quality of the pitching staff ( of course ) etc. And please don't lecture me again in how it is best used. I know it is better used on the same team with the same pitchers at the same time....etc. It is also best used over a long time period. 

    I never "threw out" Salty's first 2 games of 2012, I just moved the measuring point of his sample size to the point where I saw improvement begin. I don't get why we always seem to look at season to season stats, but fail to recognize that some players turn their careers around mid season. This may or may not be the case with Salty, but it was about April 25th when a change began.

    If you keep stating Salty has the worst CERA in MLB, I will keep saying you are misusing the stat, because the fact is, you are. Continuing to use it even after we discussed how it is best used and you agreed on its proper usage, does not make repeating the league CERA numbers any more right.

    When I mentioned Lava's CERA numbers, I qualified it with a statement about it being a small sample size, and compared it to Salty's first 12 game sample size. I have not labelled Lava a poor CERA catcher at any point. My guess is he has a way to go towards becoming good at handling a staff. I also think Salty has a ways to go as well, but he appeared to be taking a step in the right direction until the last couple weeks. 

    I guess our major difference is that you do not think it is likely (or even remotely possible) that Salty can get better, even though many many catchers develop after 27 or even 30 as with VTek. You look at salty's CERA in 2011 with a different staff and compare it to 2012, see a decline, and write him off as not improving, but "getting worse". I see his pre April 25th numbers vs his post April 25th numbers 9a significant sample size) and I see improvement, and not just in CERA numbers, but in several other defensive areas like PB + WP, and how he seems to work with the staff better.
     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    I might be thinking of UZR/150 as the stat fangraphs cited as needing a 3 year sample to be statistically significant but it is clearly better to have a larger sample size with CERA also. Many analysts do not agree on the significance of CERA at all. But who would you rather have, the guy who was 1st in league CERA or last in league CERA all other things being equal? It is by no means a definitive stat and is highly likely to just be skewed simply by the quality of the pitching staff. It is not a good sign when he is last in league CERA though among qualifying catchers on any list. Especially when that staff is made up of guys who have had success in the past.

    Something isn't working in regard to our run prevention. We've hired the pitching coach of the year and then fired him. We've got one of the most expensive pitching staffs in the world. What are the other variables? One X factor is Salty catching most of the games. Tek had a much higher winning percentage. Shoppach had a much higher winning percentage. Just maybe Salty is a factor n the overall collapse of our run prevention efforts. The ESPN numbers and fangraph numbers seem to correlate with that hypothesis. 
     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    I don't think Salty is getting worse defensively. I just don't think he will get much better defensively. 2 years ago he was in the minors fighting a supposed case of the YIPS. Then traded for 2 A ball level guys. Most of baseball discounts his defensive ability. To me the sample size is fairly large even in mlb. He is never going to be good defensively. That is the likelihood I'm projecting.
     

Share