Time to Bench Salty

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from expitch. Show expitch's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    Salty would not be the first slugger to benefit from choking up a little on the bat with two strikes, and cutting down a little on his swing. Especially with a runner on third and less than two outs. His job in that situation is to bring the run home.
    I don't have names on my fingertips, but I do recall sluggers who always choked up a bit. It helped bat speed and timing. 
     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In Response to Re: Time to Bench Salty:
    [QUOTE]Let's see. Theo's infatuations brought us Salty, Lugo, Rent-a-wreck, Gonzo... Any otheres  Any of these pan out? i'm still not sure about Gonzo -- His hitting is coming back, but I'd still like to see what he can do when the game is on the line.  My guess is grounder to second. Wishing Theo well in Chicago.
    Posted by Ergoetal[/QUOTE]
    Isn't he leading the league in hitting with RISP?
     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from Alibiike. Show Alibiike's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In Response to Re: Time to Bench Salty:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Time to Bench Salty : that's because I think Salty is tired...he can't catch everyday.  if he platoons he can remain strong all season.
    Posted by andrewmitch[/QUOTE]

    I'd be tired too with all those swings and misses!
     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from rightymclefty. Show rightymclefty's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    Leading the league in hitting with RISP is meaningless, if those hits come before the 7th inning.
    I can't recall many big hits by Gonzalez in his time here.
     
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  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    I suggested trading Salty last winter while his "stock was high".

    I based my position on his apparent lack of stamina (one season sample size) and his struggles in CERA-related areas or how he handles our expensive pitching staff.

    Salty's play up to about April 25, 2012 did not change my mind, but in the area of pitcher handling, Salty showed great improvement after April 25th. His CERA before April 25th was 7.23, but afterwards is near 4.00 (about thye same as longtime vet Shoppach).

    I had been for the continued playing of Salty based on the CERA-related improvement, and for us to get a better understanding of his possible issue with stamina over a long ML season. I think that answer is pretty close to being answered. His monthly OPS has dropped like a lead balloon:
    .973> .721> .685> .414

    42 Ks in his last 89 ABs is telling.

    He has not been overplayed this year. He has rested vs most LHPs. He's currently 13th in innings caught in MLB and is over 150 innings behind the league leader (over 25% more).

    I like what I have seen in Salty's improvement behind the plate, but he's lost it on offense. Yes, 5 HRs in his last 100 PAs is still a 300Hr/yr pace, but he has none in his last 36 PAs.

    It's time to give Lava a long look. Maybe salty could be dealt on a waiver deal, but more likely he will be dealt this winter, unless Papi walks. 

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from Thesemenarecowards. Show Thesemenarecowards's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    The bigger question here is addressing what the plan is at the Catcher position going forward, meaning 2013 and beyond.  Catcher is becoming like SS for this organization, meaning it is becoming a position where they can't seem to find or settle on a long term answer.  They went with Tek for a too long, Salty hasn't exactly cemented himself and Lavarnway is sort of waiting in the wings.  What I loved about the Youk trade, is that no matter how you felf about the deal, at least the organization made a clear and decisive move about the future of 3B.  It is time to do that with Catcher as well.

    I'm normally in the camp of "an out is an out so don't put too much value on K's" but with Salty it is about more than the K's.  He doesn't have good AB's and doesn't make adjustments at the plate.  Furthermore, his #'s with RISP are just atrocious.  So if the brass thinks Lavarnway is the guy of the future, then start giving him some regular starts behind the plate to get a look at what they've got. 

    At this point, I'd rather see Shoppach than Salty.
     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from andrewmitch. Show andrewmitch's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In Response to Re: Time to Bench Salty:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Time to Bench Salty : Yeah but we usually won with Varitek behind the plate (60-31 his last 2 seasons), and we usually lose with Salty behind the plate.   
    Posted by Hfxsoxnut[/QUOTE]

    Gee, how many other VARIABLES can you list that were different when Tek was catching versus when Salty was catching???
     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In Response to Re: Time to Bench Salty:
    [QUOTE]Leading the league in hitting with RISP is meaningless, if those hits come before the 7th inning. I can't recall many big hits by Gonzalez in his time here.
    Posted by rightymclefty[/QUOTE]

    It's difficult to have the kind of 'big hits' that get remembered when the pitching is this bad.  Last night Gonzalez had a 2-run homer that gave us the lead, but the pitching blew the lead.  The game before he had 3 RBI but our pitchers gave up 10 runs.  If we had won those games his RBI would look bigger.
     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In Response to Re: Time to Bench Salty:
    [QUOTE]The bigger question here is addressing what the plan is at the Catcher position going forward, meaning 2013 and beyond.  Catcher is becoming like SS for this organization, meaning it is becoming a position where they can't seem to find or settle on a long term answer.  They went with Tek for a too long, Salty hasn't exactly cemented himself and Lavarnway is sort of waiting in the wings.  What I loved about the Youk trade, is that no matter how you felf about the deal, at least the organization made a clear and decisive move about the future of 3B.  It is time to do that with Catcher as well. I'm normally in the camp of "an out is an out so don't put too much value on K's" but with Salty it is about more than the K's.  He doesn't have good AB's and doesn't make adjustments at the plate.  Furthermore, his #'s with RISP are just atrocious.  

    It's an 88 PA sample size. His OPS with men on base is better than his overall OPS as is his OPS Late & Close (when it counts). 

    So if the brass thinks Lavarnway is the guy of the future, then start giving him some regular starts behind the plate to get a look at what they've got.  At this point, I'd rather see Shoppach than Salty.
    Posted by Thesemenarecowards[/QUOTE]

    Playing Shoppach does nothing to help us determine where we go from 2013 and beyond.  Playing Lava gives us some limited insights, and playing Salty could more clearly define his stamiona issue.

    The only plus I see in playing Shoppach over Salty here on out, is to prevent Salty from having even worse stats and less trade value this winter as a result of an horrific finish to 2012.

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In Response to Re: Time to Bench Salty:
    [QUOTE]Leading the league in hitting with RISP is meaningless, if those hits come before the 7th inning. I can't recall many big hits by Gonzalez in his time here.
    Posted by rightymclefty[/QUOTE]

    The team's Late & Close OPS is .705.
    AGon's overall OPS is .770.
    AGon's Late & Close OPS is .795 with 3 Hrs in 7 PAs.
    (2nd on the team to Cody Ross among players with 50+ clutch PAs: note Salty is 3rd at .778 and Papi's at .697)


     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from Thesemenarecowards. Show Thesemenarecowards's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In Response to Re: Time to Bench Salty:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Time to Bench Salty : Playing Shoppach does nothing to help us determine where we go from 2013 and beyond.  Playing Lava gives us some limited insights, and playing Salty could more clearly define his stamiona issue. The only plus I see in playing Shoppach over Salty here on out, is to prevent Salty from having even worse stats and less trade value this winter as a result of an horrific finish to 2012.
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]

    I think Shoppach is the better player but if the Sox are giving up on the season than play Lavarnway/Salty.

    I don't think the organization is committed to Salty, and I don't know that they should be.  Is next year going to be a Salty/Lavarnway shared duty with Salty then leaving as a FA after 2013?

    My bigger point is that really since 2008, when Tek declined in a big way, the Red Sox have been in a state of flux behind the plate and haven't had a full time Catcher that they feel great about. I'm just not a fan of 5 year transitional periods at any position.
     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In Response to Re: Time to Bench Salty:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Time to Bench Salty : Gee, how many other VARIABLES can you list that were different when Tek was catching versus when Salty was catching???
    Posted by andrewmitch[/QUOTE]

    Pretty simple really.  The big difference was that we were giving up about a run less per game when Tek was catching. 
     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In Response to Re: Time to Bench Salty:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Time to Bench Salty : I think Shoppach is the better player but if the Sox are giving up on the season than play Lavarnway/Salty. 

    Fair enough, even though a Lava/Shopp platoon is not a traditional type since both are better vs LHPs.

    I don't think the organization is committed to Salty, and I don't know that they should be.  Is next year going to be a Salty/Lavarnway shared duty with Salty then leaving as a FA after 2013? 

    My guess is no. One will be traded. However, if Papi walks, they could keep both and give Lava a chance to DH and ease into the ML catcher role slowly, so he is ready for 2014- the year Salty is gone.

    My bigger point is that really since 2008, when Tek declined in a big way, the Red Sox have been in a state of flux behind the plate and haven't had a full time Catcher that they feel great about. I'm just not a fan of 5 year transitional periods at any position.
    Posted by Thesemenarecowards[/QUOTE]

    Theo took some stabs at it with VMart, Kottaras, and now Salty, but your point is well taken. I will say that Lava & Swihart represent the best catcher prospects we've had since I can't remember.

    By the way, our current .772 catcher OPS is 9th best in MLB today and rates pretty high on the last 10 year list of Sox catcher OPS. It is our second best OPS since 2005:
    2003: .829
    2004: .883
    2005: .804
    2006: .668
    2007: .742
    2008: .650
    2009: .750
    2010: .793
    2011: .737
    2012: .772
     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from andrewmitch. Show andrewmitch's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In Response to Re: Time to Bench Salty:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Time to Bench Salty : Pretty simple really.  The big difference was that we were giving up about a run less per game when Tek was catching. 
    Posted by Hfxsoxnut[/QUOTE]

    Uh huh......the "RUN" is the DEPENDENT VARIABLE........it is AFFECTED by a series of INDEPENDENT VARIABLES such as:

    Who was the pitching that day
    What relievers were used
    Who else was in the line up
    Who were we playing
    Who was the SP against us
    Etc etc etc

    Just looking at the catcher is ONLY OK if all of the other INDEPENDENT VARIABLES REMAIN CONSTANT, and they do not.......

    When you do the analysis your way, you will 99% of the time draw the wrong conclusions

    That like saying:  Hey, why do you think we won today?  Gee, I don't know, because we scored more runs than the other team?  Yeah Yeah, let's try and do that every time................
     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from andrewmitch. Show andrewmitch's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    Say what you want about Salty, but he's the only ONE of our starting NINE who hasn't been injured this year.........on this team, that says a lot.  A heck of lot. 
     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In Response to Re: Time to Bench Salty:
    [QUOTE]Say what you want about Salty, but he's the only ONE of our starting NINE who hasn't been injured this year.........on this team, that says a lot.  A heck of lot. 
    Posted by andrewmitch[/QUOTE]

    C'mon andrew, get serious.  Adrian Gonzalez has missed about 10 games in the last 6 years.
     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    Uh huh......the "RUN" is the DEPENDENT VARIABLE........it is AFFECTED by a series of INDEPENDENT VARIABLES such as:

    Who was the pitching that day
    What relievers were used
    Who else was in the line up
    Who were we playing
    Who was the SP against us
    Etc etc etc

    Just looking at the catcher is ONLY OK if all of the other INDEPENDENT VARIABLES REMAIN CONSTANT, and they do not.......

    When you do the analysis your way, you will 99% of the time draw the wrong conclusions

    That like saying:  Hey, why do you think we won today?  Gee, I don't know, because we scored more runs than the other team?  Yeah Yeah, let's try and do that every time................

    Yeah, but when you look at the Sox catchers since VTek turned 30, year after year after year after year, VTek had better head-to-head CERA with each individual pitcher way more often than not. It's an undeniable trend and a large enough sample size to determine that VTek was a significant "variable" hjimself and had a hand in imroving our chances of victory even after his bat dropped off a cliff. VMart was a way better hitter than VTek, but even his better offense did not help us win more when he caught. We still had a vastly better winning % when VTek caught.

    CERA is not perfect by any means, and it is highly restricive stat with limited proper usage, but an 8 year sample size should even our those other variables. I even went back to see if VTek caught better pitchers than his back-up, but actually found the opposite from 2009-2011. Yet, we still won way more with VTek.


     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from andrewmitch. Show andrewmitch's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In Response to Re: Time to Bench Salty:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Time to Bench Salty : C'mon andrew, get serious.  Adrian Gonzalez has missed about 10 games in the last 6 years.
    Posted by Hfxsoxnut[/QUOTE]

    Alright, you can certainly have Adrian if you want....Wow, now you've got a whopping 2 men out of 9 who haven't missed much playing time........Happy now???
     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from andrewmitch. Show andrewmitch's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In Response to Re: Time to Bench Salty:
    [QUOTE]Uh huh......the "RUN" is the DEPENDENT VARIABLE........it is AFFECTED by a series of INDEPENDENT VARIABLES such as: Who was the pitching that day What relievers were used Who else was in the line up Who were we playing Who was the SP against us Etc etc etc Just looking at the catcher is ONLY OK if all of the other INDEPENDENT VARIABLES REMAIN CONSTANT, and they do not....... When you do the analysis your way, you will 99% of the time draw the wrong conclusions That like saying:  Hey, why do you think we won today?  Gee, I don't know, because we scored more runs than the other team?  Yeah Yeah, let's try and do that every time................ Yeah, but when you look at the Sox catchers since VTek turned 30, year after year after year after year, VTek had better head-to-head CERA with each individual pitcher   way more often than not. It's an undeniable trend and a large enough sample size to determine that VTek was a significant "variable" hjimself and had a hand in imroving our chances of victory even after his bat dropped off a cliff. VMart was a way better hitter than VTek, but even his better offense did not help us win more when he caught. We still had a vastly better winning % when VTek caught. CERA is not perfect by any means, and it is highly restricive stat with limited proper usage, but an 8 year sample size should even our those other variables. I even went back to see if VTek caught better pitchers than his back-up, but actually found the opposite from 2009-2011. Yet, we still won way more with VTek.
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]

    It doesn't take a genius to figure out that Tek caught far more talented pitches than Salty.

    Pedro, Lowe, Schilling, a younger Beckett, a better Lester.......Better bull pens........even last year when Beckett was pitching well who was his catcher?????? 

    And guess what?  We don't have an 8 year sample on Salty.
     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from craze4sox. Show craze4sox's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In Response to Time to Bench Salty:
    [QUOTE]I imagine the brass is getting tired of Salty's strike outs. I can't remember anyone this bad who kept his job this long. It's like having a pitcher in the lineup. Time to hand the job over to Lavanway. Nothing to lose at this point.
    Posted by bosoxmal[/QUOTE]

    Like I said many times, Salty's natural talent is limited so unless he can make himself better "whatever it takes" its hard to keep a bat like his in the lineup and be successful without a lot of help elsewhere. 
     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    I think Salty is a legit backup catcher.  His level of skills merits a backup job but not a starting job.  He's just not a better catcher than Shoppach, and that's what Shoppach is.
     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from dannycater. Show dannycater's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    Shoppach is not better on a regular basis and that's a fact over his career.
     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from andrewmitch. Show andrewmitch's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    I honestly like having the combination of all 3 on the team.......
     
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