Time to Bench Salty

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    I'll do the CERA final breakdown tonight. I'll break it down from pre-April 25,2012 to post, and we'll see a nice improvement in Salty at a time when our staff seemed to get worse (at least on paper).

     
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    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    CERA Update:

    Salty 4/2011-4/25/12: 953 Inn 4.88 CERA

    Salty 4/26/12-10/3/12: 774.2 Inn 4.43 CERA

     

    Shopp up to 4/25/2012: 63 Inn 4.14 CERA

    Shopp 4/26/12-trade: 293.1 Inn 3.93 CERA

     

    Lava 4/2011-4/25/12: 26.2 Inn 4.39 CERA

    Lava 4/26/12-10/3/12: 229 Inn 5.74 CERA

    As you can see, Salty did improve his CERA after 4/25/12 by 0.45 even though our staff is much worse than the one we had last year.

    Note: CERA should not be used in this manner to make definitive judgements, since some catchers have larger or smaller sample sizes with the various pitchers. I will give a pitcher by pitcher breakdown soon.

    The 2012 season totals:

    Salty   852 inn  4.82 CERA

    Shopp 370 inn  3.77 CERA

    Lava   219 inn  5.75 CERA

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    The only way CERA should be used is to compare catchers from the same team against each other by looking pitcher by pitcher and comparing the numbers while noting large sample size differences and/or tiny sample sizes.

     fromLet's look pitcher by pitcher for the final 2012 (Inn) CERA (note: some tiny sample sizes): 

     with    all              Salty          Shopp        Lava

    Lester    4.82   (107) 5.62    (49) 3.70     (49) 4.01

    Buch     4.56      (76) 6.30    (78) 3.28     (36) 3.79

    Doub      4.86  (124) 4.95    (32) 4.18      (5) 7.20

    Beck      5.23    (58) 4.47    (58) 5.46     (11) 7.94

    Cook      5.65    (77) 5.28     (5) 3.60      (12) 8.76

    Aceves   5.36   (53) 4.92    (15) 4.11     (16) 8.04

    Morales  3.77   (52) 2.96    (22) 4.91      (3) 6.79

    Bard       6.22   (36) 5.05    (21) 5.91      (2) 27.00

    Atch       1.58   (37) 2.41        (9) 0.00      (4) 0.00

    Padilla    4.50   (26) 5.47    (20) 2.75      (4) 6.75

    Melan     6.20   (26) 9.35       (8) 2.35    (11) 1.59

    Dice-K    8.28  (27) 5.93      (5) 7.20     (13) 13.50

    Taz         1.43  (31) 1.40     (12) 1.50    (12) 1.50

    Albers    2.29   (22) 2.86   (17) 1.56

    Miller     3.35   (23) 3.91     (11) 3.97     (6) 0.00

    Mort      3.21   (29) 2.79       (7) 2.70     (6) 2.84

     

    Breaking it down:

    4- Salty way worse than the norm: Lester, Buchholtz, Padilla, Melancon

    3- Salty worse than the norm: Atchison, Miller, Albers

    1- Salty worse but close: Doubront

    1- Salty better but close: Tazawa

    4- Salty better than norm: Beckett, Cook, Aceves, Mortensen

    3- Salty way better than the norm: Morales, Bard, Dice-K

     

    Salty ended up better with 8 pitchers and worse with 8 pitchers.

    Better than I expected when the season began.

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    I saw a tweet the other day that Jose Iglesias saved 6 runs this year at SS defensively in 187 innings if I remember correctly. Just checked it out and look at this:

    Innings played: 193.2

    DRS ( runs saved compared to the league average SS ) ..... 7 freaking runs guys!

    UZR/150...a Ridiculous PLUS 49.8.

    We are probably looking at our 2013 starting SS folks. If he can save 7 runs in roughly 23 - 25 games extrapolate that out to a normal 150 game profile....that's 42 runs saved OVER an average SS. If this guy can hit anywhere near .250 he is our guy.

    http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=10231&position=SS

     
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    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    Wow, Iglesias also had a wRC+ of 5 last year. I don't think I've ever seen anyone that low. I think his bat will improve a lot though. Over time I can see that up around 90-100. Maybe even a 110-120 in 3 to 4 years.

     
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    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    Not saying Iglesias ends up saving us 42 runs in a year over the average SS but a plus 25 DRS might be reasonable and a UZR/150 in that range also. They are sending him for wnter conditioning. They want him to be durable and stronger. I think they are looking for him to start next year.

     
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    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    Sorry to be off topic. Wasn't paying attention.

     
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    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    Sorry to be off topic. Wasn't paying attention.

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from TheExaminer. Show TheExaminer's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    Salt is not good, (over exposure has led to The Nation's high blood pressure) Lavarnway is not ready to hit MLB pitching. Get someone else please. Napoli?

     
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  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In response to pike's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    DannyCater forgot that the thread was about Salty. He should have posted his total solution comments onto any one of six other threads that were tailored for that.

    [/QUOTE]

    It's boom, not danny.

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    We are probably looking at our 2013 starting SS folks. If he can save 7 runs in roughly 23 - 25 games extrapolate that out to a normal 150 game profile....that's 42 runs saved OVER an average SS. If this guy can hit anywhere near .250 he is our guy.

    Remember all the grief I took for saying Iggy might save 100 hits over a full season when compared to the average MLB SS? 

    Maybe I underestimated his defense!

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    His defensive numbers are off the charts good in his short mlb level sample size. Saving 7 runs in 23 games? Unreal!

    I know Iglesias has not hit well recently but in the lower minors it wasn't bad and he did start to hit well in AAA late in the season. His stroke doesn't look bad and the kid appears to sincerely enjoy the sport. Works really hard and has a great attitude. His father was a great player and he has been groomed from an early age. Is intelligent...etc. Good make up. 

    He may surprise some people and end up being exactly the guy many of us have been hoping for for years now.

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    Get someone else please. Napoli?

    You do know Napoli has one of the worst records with working with his pitching staffs over the years, right?

    Also, 2012 on offense:

    Salty (448 PA)    .222  25  59

    Napoli (417PA)  .227   24  53

     

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from ma6dragon9. Show ma6dragon9's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    I feel the need to chime in every 150 posts or so to say:

    Getting rid of Saltalamacchia would be stupid.

    I still haven't seen anyone provide options they'd want instead of him.

    I still haven't seen anyone dispute the list I provide when calling Salt the 8/9th best C in baseball.

    Moon, excellent job providing stats that:

    a) Show he's not bad, defensively, compared to the league right now, and,

    b) he is improving.

    I don't want anything to do with Napoli. He had a good year or two, but he has fallen off the cliff. He's going down as Saltalamacchia is coming up.

    VOTE FOR SALTALAMACCHIA FOR 2013!

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In response to ma6dragon9's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I feel the need to chime in every 150 posts or so to say:

    Getting rid of Saltalamacchia would be stupid.

    I still haven't seen anyone provide options they'd want instead of him.

    I still haven't seen anyone dispute the list I provide when calling Salt the 8/9th best C in baseball.

    Moon, excellent job providing stats that:

    a) Show he's not bad, defensively, compared to the league right now, and,

    b) he is improving.

    I don't want anything to do with Napoli. He had a good year or two, but he has fallen off the cliff. He's going down as Saltalamacchia is coming up.

    VOTE FOR SALTALAMACCHIA FOR 2013!

    [/QUOTE]


    Salty's 4.43 CERA after April 25, 2012 is really quite remarkable when you consider the staff we had this year, which included pitchers pitching out of their comfort roles (Aceves & Bard), pitchers losing velocity or pitch variety (Lester, Beckett and others), pitchers getting hurt (Bailey, Buch, Tazawa, Dice-K, Lackey, Hill, Padilla, Atchison and others), and pitchers getting traded (Beckett, Albers & Bowden).

    Salty has improved on handling the staff.

    Salty has greatly reduced his Passed Balls and Wild Pitches.

    Salty placed about in the middle the pack in catcher OPS (.742) & 3rd in C'er HRs.         (BTW, a .742 OPS is better than 22 teams' catcher OPS.)

    His bad CS% is partially the staff's fault and only amounted to about 8-9 more SBs than the league norm over the season.

    Salty is still about 2 or more years younger than VTek was when he became the CERA master (at about age 30-31).

    Those who pick on Salty have no idea just how bad MLb catching is these days. Salty is a plus over most team's total catching output. He is not a weakness, but has had more posts bashing him than he deserved.

     

     

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    Red Sox position with the most HRs?

    C  28

    DH 23

    1B 22

    3B/RF 18

     

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    Some key final numbers on Salty and the state of MLB catching these days:

    Salty's .742 OPS ranks him 14th out of the top 30 ML catchers by PAs in 2012.                

    9th in SLG .454. 

    25th in OBP at .288. 

    3rd in HRs with 25.

    However, when you compare these numbers vs MLB team catching numbers:

    Salty's...

    .742 OPS is better than 21 team catcher OPS.

    .454 SLG is better than 25 team catcher SLG.

    His .288 OBP is actually better than 5 team OBP and .001 away from it being 6 teams.

    Folks, 13 teams have a team catcher BA below .228! 16 are below .240.

     

    On fielding:

    Fangraphs has a fielding ranking involved in their value determination. Salty placed  13th out of 30 with a -0.3 number.

    Only 10 catchers with 600+ innings caught have less Passed Balls than Salty, and 4 of then caught significantly less innings than Salty's 852.

    Only 8 catchers allowed less than 23 WPs this year, and 5 of them had less innings.

    As bad as Salty's CS% was this year, there were 4 catchers worse than him and several more pretty close. 

     

    CERA:

    Improved his CERA by about 0.40 after April 25th for where it was from 2011 up to 4/25/12. This with several pitchers hurt, traded or out of their comfort roles.

     

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    With all this data Moon, some will still not be happy unless Molina or Posey is behind the plate. How can some say his defense is awful when his wp/pb numbers were cut in half? CS? Too many variables in that stat that dont belong to the catcher and isnt one of the most important stats because of that. Most scouts will tell you that. Hes still young and improving. If these same people had the same attitude towards Tek when he was Saltys age and got their wish, we all wouldve missed out on one heck of a ball player/catcher. Its only another year, Im sure, and the Sox will know what direction they are going.

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In response to southpaw777's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    With all this data Moon, some will still not be happy unless Molina or Posey is behind the plate. How can some say his defense is awful when his wp/pb numbers were cut in half? CS? Too many variables in that stat that dont belong to the catcher and isnt one of the most important stats because of that. Most scouts will tell you that. Hes still young and improving. If these same people had the same attitude towards Tek when he was Saltys age and got their wish, we all wouldve missed out on on heck of a ball player/catcher. Its only another year, Im sure, and the Sox will know what direction they are going.

    [/QUOTE]


    The most absurd of the absurd was when softy called Salty a "back-up catcher at best".

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to southpaw777's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    With all this data Moon, some will still not be happy unless Molina or Posey is behind the plate. How can some say his defense is awful when his wp/pb numbers were cut in half? CS? Too many variables in that stat that dont belong to the catcher and isnt one of the most important stats because of that. Most scouts will tell you that. Hes still young and improving. If these same people had the same attitude towards Tek when he was Saltys age and got their wish, we all wouldve missed out on on heck of a ball player/catcher. Its only another year, Im sure, and the Sox will know what direction they are going.

    [/QUOTE]


    The most absurd of the absurd was when softy called Salty a "back-up catcher at best".

    [/QUOTE]


    Well, he also called Ross a 4th OF profile too. with over 130 Games 528 PA 22HR 81 RBI and an .807 OPS, I dont know anyone who would categorize someone like that as a 4th OF. His views are merely to get a rise from some on this board and not to be taken seriously IMO.

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In response to southpaw777's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to southpaw777's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    With all this data Moon, some will still not be happy unless Molina or Posey is behind the plate. How can some say his defense is awful when his wp/pb numbers were cut in half? CS? Too many variables in that stat that dont belong to the catcher and isnt one of the most important stats because of that. Most scouts will tell you that. Hes still young and improving. If these same people had the same attitude towards Tek when he was Saltys age and got their wish, we all wouldve missed out on on heck of a ball player/catcher. Its only another year, Im sure, and the Sox will know what direction they are going.

    [/QUOTE]


    The most absurd of the absurd was when softy called Salty a "back-up catcher at best".

    [/QUOTE]


    Well, he also called Ross a 4th OF profile too. with over 130 Games 528 PA 22HR 81 RBI and an .807 OPS, I dont know anyone who would categorize someone like that as a 4th OF. His views are merely to get a rise from some on this board and not to be taken seriously IMO.

    [/QUOTE]

    While the splits on Ross do show he hits LHPs much better than RHPs, and hits much better at home than away, his career history shows that his numbers vs RHPs and at all ball parks are decent enough to be a full time player. Only his injury prevented him from having about 600 PAs this year.

    I do think softy makes a good point about not counting on Ross as a clean-up hitter or even a number 5 or 6 vs RHPs, but he certainly is a good "middle order" hitter vs LHPs.

    He called Ross a "dumpster dive", then pretended to have liked the signing all along "as a platoon profile with Sweeney". His lies are legendary, but his pontificating about our nation's decline in morality and ethics is perhaps his biggest hypocrisy.

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from ma6dragon9. Show ma6dragon9's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    He called Ross a "dumpster dive", then pretended to have liked the signing all along "as a platoon profile with Sweeney". His lies are legendary, but his pontificating about our nation's decline in morality and ethics is perhaps his biggest hypocrisy.

     


    That was literary gold right there. Well written.

    I have no idea what the team thinks of him. A lot of the media don't seem happy with him, and I know that drives majority opinion...but I also fear the team listens too closely and may cut ties with a player that is ok, and getting better still.

    I want to have faith in Cherrington, but I still don't trust Lucchino to stick his nose where it doesn't belong, and the fact is...I haven't seen enough of Cherrington to really have an idea. I don't think last season is a fair gauge as he was financially handcuffed from Day 1.

    He should have 0 financial restraints now, so I'm curious how he will proceed. Should be an interesting winter, and truth be told, I hope he doesn't do too much. I do NOT like the FA crap....errr, crop I mean, at all.

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    I do NOT like the FA crap....errr, crop I mean, at all.

    I know, the one season we have a ton of cash to spend, there's nobody worthy of overspending on.

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from snakeoil123. Show snakeoil123's posts

    Re: Time to Bench Salty

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    We are probably looking at our 2013 starting SS folks. If he can save 7 runs in roughly 23 - 25 games extrapolate that out to a normal 150 game profile....that's 42 runs saved OVER an average SS. If this guy can hit anywhere near .250 he is our guy.

    Remember all the grief I took for saying Iggy might save 100 hits over a full season when compared to the average MLB SS? 

    Maybe I underestimated his defense!

    [/QUOTE]


    You know I am all for giving Iggy a shot at starting SS next year, but doesn't if go without saying that that an average hitting SS might have been responsible for being part of scoring 7 more runs over those same 23-25 games?

    Of course if Iggy can it close to 250 he is worth it?  Can he?

     

     

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